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Shorting the US-DPRK Meeting [UPDATED]

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[NB: Update at the bottom. / ~Rayne]

At 5:08 pm ET / 7:08 am Tokyo / 6:08 am Shanghai / 1:08 am Moscow time, Trump tweeted:

Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze. Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!

At 7:49 pm ET / 9:49 am Tokyo / 8:49 am Shanghai / 3:49 am Moscow time, Press Secretary Sanders tweeted:

.@POTUS greatly appreciates the nice words of the S. Korean delegation & Pres Moon. He will accept the invitation to meet w/ Kim Jong Un at a place & time to be determined. We look forward to the denuclearization of NK. In the meantime all sanctions & maximum pressure must remain

The stock market in Tokyo looked like this in response:

And Shanghai’s stock market looked like this:

Chinese investors have been bullish this week; the news about Trump meeting Kim Jong-un hasn’t really fazed them yet though if someone in the SSE Index knew about the announcement early enough, they could have made money shorting an index fund.

Japanese investors aren’t happy, which was predictable. It took them a bit to digest the news but they don’t appear comfortable. If someone knew about the announcement early enough, they could have made some money in the Nikkei using shorts.

Barring any other big news with international impact, I think we’ll see similar reactions as the sun rises over successive markets in the west. Again, somebody could probably make some money.

Call me cynical, but I think this anticipated US-North Korea meeting is just another means for making somebody cash.

Like investors with cash positions after dumping steel and aluminum bets last week — wouldn’t be surprised if they shorted Asian index funds overnight, and maybe EU and US funds in the morning local time.

UPDATE — 1:40 PM EST —

Note the markets at 9:30 am ET / 2:30 pm London / 3:30 pm Paris and Frankfurt / 5:30 pm Moscow time:


I proved I would be complete fail at shorting in US markets if I wasn’t immersed in market news; I missed the impending release of jobs data which skewed the NYSE. The FTSE (London), CAC 40 (Paris), and DAX (Frankfurt) all waited patiently to see what the NYSE would do on open. I suspect the difference between European market upticks and NYSE open time I’ve indicated is due to early trading in the U.S.; some brokerage accounts allow trades an hour or two before open.

In hindsight I wonder if the Hang Seng didn’t react like Tokyo because of a more closed market and less open media?

How interesting, though, that MICEX (Moscow) looked more like the Hang Seng throughout its day, hmm?

And imagine what one could do if they had advance indication of U.S. employment figures. If only all this was as harmless as watching Dan Akroyd and Eddie Murphy try to short orange juice futures on the CBOE in Trading Places (video excerpt, 1983).

“Technical Difficulties”: United Airlines Grounded, NYSE Halted, What’s Next?

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[graphic: WSJ.com's July 8th error message]

[graphic: WSJ.com’s July 8th error message]

This is a working post for discussion of today’s outages. United Airlines grounded its flights for roughly two hours this morning; the FAA’s advisory indicated an automation-related issue, and subsequent communications from United said it was a “network connectivity” problem.

UAL also briefly grounded flights on June 2nd, due to “automation issues.”

Now the New York Stock Exchange has halted all trading shortly before noon, cancelling all open orders, due to “technical difficulties.”

There are reports that CNBC and WSJ websites are down, but they could simply be swamped by traffic.

Who’s or what’s next?

UPDATE — 12:55 pm EDT —

Looks like CNBC may only have had a brief burp due to high traffic as there are no further complaints about service interruption. WSJ’s website has been slowly working its way back to normal service; the media outlet posted an abbreviated versionfor 15-20 minutes once its technical problems had been resolved. No indication yet that anything apart from high traffic volume may have spiked the site.

UPDATE — 1:35 pm EDT —

You know what cracks me up, in a ha-ha-ouch kind of way? FBI Director Jim Comey puling about the need for back doors into technology in front of Congress today, while a major airline and the most important stock market in the world demonstrate exactly how ugly it could get if hackers with malicious intent used the back doors he demands for evil rather than good. The “technical difficulties” both UAL and NYSE experienced today could be duplicated by hackers using back doors.

The U.S. Government is an aircraft carrier, very slow to turn even when under fire. Hackers are speedboats. Asking for back doors across all technology while facing myriad fleet-footed nemesis is like chasing 38-foot Cigarette Top Gun speedboats with a carrier. Unless the carrier can see Cigarettes coming from a distance and train gun on them, Cigarettes will fly up its backside. The U.S. Government has already proven it can’t see very far ahead, stuck in a defensive posture while using its offense in ways that only ensure more attacks.

UPDATE — 2:20 pm EDT —

Fortune reports the NYSE halt was due to a “failed systems upgrade.”

Right. Upgrade. Let’s roll out an upgrade in the middle of the week, in the middle of the month, when both China’s stock market and Europe’s banksters are freaking out. Let’s not manage traders expectations in advance of the day’s trading, either.

Somebody needs to retake a course in Change Management 101 — or there’s some additional explaining required.

Reuters assures us, too:

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security said there were no signs” that the problems at NYSE and United Airlines stemmed from “malicious activity,” CNN reported.

Good to know, huh? Can’t believe they went to CNN for that.

UPDATE — 3:30 pm EDT —

The buzz since 2:00-ish pm is that Anonymous *might* be to blame for the NYSE “glitch.” The Hill, Salon, and a few other outlets reported about a cryptic tweet from @YourAnonNews late last evening:

Untitled

But another Anonymous affiliate laughed it off, saying:

NYSE_TechGlitches_Tweet_237PM_08JUL2015

Timing is incredible, though; the NYSE, WSJ, and UAL outages all happened concurrent with a Congressional hearing at which FBI Director Jim Comey discussed the need for back doors into everything. What an incredible series of coincidences today.

UPDATE — 3:55 pm EDT —

Best take by far on today’s NYSE “technical difficulties”, gonzo reporting with a feminine touch from Molly Crabapple:

I was met by fires in the streets, the screams of the dying tourists and the shouts of former traders offering sacrifices to their new gods

UPDATE — 5:00 pm EDT —

NYSE re-opened again around 3:00 pm EDT, with trading a bit jittery. Financial news outlets speculated the market closed at 17,515.42, down -261.49 (-1.47%) due to concerns over China’s tanked stock market and Greece’s EU debt woes. The Shanghai market had closed the previous day at 3,507.19 down -219.93 (-5.90%).

Feeling iffy over the Shanghai index, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 23,516.56 down -1,458.75 (-5.84%); Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at 19,737.64 down -638.95 (-3.14%).

But these Asian markets weren’t affected by the NYSE’s technical difficulties today. Wonder how they will open on July 9th their local time — flat or down? I wouldn’t put my money on an uptick, but I’m not a financial adviser, either.

I imagine the bars and pubs around Wall Street saw greater-than-average action. I might put money on that.