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The Upcoming Pardon-Palooza

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Just about everyone has a story out about how Trump’s win will make most of his legal trouble go away (see Brandi Buchman, Politico, NYT).

I don’t disagree with any of this analysis. His federal cases will end shortly after January 20 (though DOJ may want to pursue the 11th Circuit Appeal to sustain the viability of Special Counsels).

But I don’t know how they will go away. After all, Jack Smith could indict everyone, so as to tell the fuller story of what Trump did. If Democrats manage to take the House, he could hand off his grand jury material between January 3 and January 20. For all we know, he’s got sealed indictments hidden somewhere, obtained during the pre-election quiet period. Or he could write a final report.

Which is why I’m more interested in the other immediate legal question: Whom he pardons as soon as he returns to office.

By pardoning the January 6 defendants who are either in prison or awaiting trial, surely including seditionists like Enrique Tarrio and Stewart Rhodes, Trump would create an army of loyal Brown Shirts ready to do his bidding again. These guys only believe in Backing the Blue if it doesn’t interfere with a coup attempt.

If Rudy Giuliani gets held in contempt for dicking around with the Ruby Freeman payments, Trump can simply pardon him out of prison again.Poof!

I expect that Trump will pardon Alexander Smirnov, who allegedly attempted to criminally frame Joe Biden in circumstances that Trump likely would like to keep quiet (not like it matters anyway because the press never showed any curiosity about how that happened).

And Trump has an incentive to pardon other corrupt grifters. I would be unsurprised if he pardoned Robert Menendez and Henry Cuellar — and the latter might have an incentive to switch parties if he were pardoned out of his trouble.

I would be shocked if Trump didn’t pardon Eric Adams, which would create an ally in New York City who controls a mob of corrupt cops and former cops.

All that said, Trump can’t pardon his co-conspirators out of their state cases (Fani Willis won reelection in Fulton County). He can’t pardon Steve Bannon out of his upcoming NY trial … though I am certain that they are plotting on a way for Bannon to avoid it.

In Trump’s first term, he pardoned his way out of his Russian trouble. He paid no price for it. It barely came up in the campaign … journalists were too busy talking about Joe Biden’s stutter.

Trump’s own impunity will do grave damage to the rule of law, however it happens.

But these pardons will turn it into a transactional form of loyalty test.

Update: I should add that Mike Davis, who will play a key role in Trump’s Administration (including, possibly, Attorney General if he could be confirmed), already taunted Jack Smith to lawyer up.

Update: Trump is also likely to pardon the guys who were prosecuted for insider trading on Truth Social.

Update: Other candidates for pardons might include Ghislaine Maxwell and Diddy.

Update: Multiple outlets are reporting that Jack Smith will wind down his two prosecutions of Trump. It seems there are multiple options to do this — the most obvious being a public report and referrals of anything else, like Mueller did. But by announcing they’re doing this, they may pre-empt Trump making demands, just like they did in August.

Eric Adams Indicted

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In half an hour, Damian Williams will announce the indictment of Eric Adams on charges relating to funding from Turkey.

While the indictment is extensive — 49 pages of narrative — it appears to address just the Turkish side of the scheme, with five charges:

  • Conspiracy to commit wire fraud, bribery, and solicitation of foreign donation
  • Wire fraud
  • Foreign Donation
  • Foreign Donation
  • Bribery

The scheme started in 2015.

In 2015, ERIC ADAMS, the defendant, took two official trips to Turkey. His first trip, in August 2015, was arranged by the Turkish Consulate General in New York City (the “Turkish Consulate”) and paid for in part by the Turkish Consulate and in pa1t by a for-profit educational conglomerate based in Istanbul (the “Turkish University”). The second trip, in December 2015, was arranged by the Turkish Official and a Turkish entrepreneur (the “Promoter”) whose business includes organizing events to introduce Turkish corporations and businesspeople to politicians, celebrities, and others whose influence may benefit the corporations an businesspeople, For both trips, ADAMS received free business class tickets on the Turkish Airline. Unlike ADAMS ‘s subsequent travel with the Turkish Airline, ADAMS reported his 2015 travel to Turkey on financial disclosure forms filed with the New York City Conflict of Interest Board (the “COIB”), as he was required to do annually at all times relevant to this Indictment.

There’s no FARA component here, though it does describe Turkey demanding his help getting approval to open Turkish House.

On or about September 5, 2021, the Turkish Official began asking ADAMS, both directly and through the Adams Staffer, to intervene with the Commissioner of the FDNY (the “FDNY Commissioner”) in order to secure a TCO for the Turkish House. ADAMS, the Turkish Official, and the Adams Staffer discussed these requests through phone calls and electronic messages. In a phone call to the Adams Staffer, the Turkish Official stated that because Turkey had supported ADAMS, it was now “his tum” to support Turkey. The Adams Staffer relayed this message to ADAMS, and ADAMS responded, “I know.

One paragraph describes how, after they came for Adams’ phones last year, he changed his password and then “forgot it.”

On November 6, 2023, FBI agents executed a search warrant for the electronic devices used by ERIC ADAMS, the defendant. Although ADAMS was carrying several electronic devices, including two cellphones, he was not carrying his personal cellphone, which is the device he used to communicate about the conduct described in this indictment. When ADAMS produced his personal cellphone the next day in response to a subpoena, it was “locked,” such that the device required a password to open. ADAMS claimed that after he learned about the investigation into his conduct, he changed the password on November 5, 2024 [sic], and increased the complexity of his password from four digits to six. ADAMS had done this, he claimed, to prevent members of his staff from inadvertently or intentionally deleting the contents of his phone because, according to ADAMS, he wished to preserve the contents of his phone due to the investigation. But, ADAMS further claimed, he had forgotten the password he had just set, and thus was unable to provide the FBI with a password that would unlock the phone.

It’s not going to take the FBI very long to break a 6-digit password, you bozo.

I predict Williams will say this investigation is ongoing and the time for anyone with information to share “is now.”

Update: Williams: “This investigation continues, … and I encourage anyone with information to come forward and do so before it’s too late.”

Nailed it!!

Notably: when describing the danger of illegal donations, Williams built a hierarch: illegal, foreign, foreign power. The use of “foreign power” suggests he could add FARA or Foreign Agent charges pretty easily.