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Judge Merchan’s Half Baby

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Judge Merchan has rejected Trump’s challenges to his conviction in the New York hush money case and scheduled a sentencing for January 10. But he has intimated he will sentence Trump to an unconditional discharge — meaning he won’t serve a jail sentence or probation.

In my opinion, this is a tactical decision and like every other legal decision about Donald Trump, unsatisfying and inadequate.

I think Merchan is trying to affirm the import of the jury’s guilty verdict, while daring Trump to ask for more.

The tradeoff I think Merchan is making is that by giving Trump nothing tangible to lose except his claim to innocence, he nevertheless situates the case in such a way that Trump can appeal.

But Merchan did so while weighing the record in favor of judicial independence.

After affirming the seriousness of Trump’s crime and the evidence against Trump (the first of ten “Clayton Factors” Merchan was obliged to consider given Trump’s request he just make the case go away), Merchan next addressed Trump’s claim that his contributions to society say he should escape punishment.

Merchan used that factor to discuss Trump’s attacks on Courts and Rule of Law. Among the items Merchan listed was the need to gag Trump; he noted, too, that even the Supreme Court backed his decision.

Defendant argues that his “contributions to this City and the Nation are too numerous to count,” and concludes his argument under this section by referencing two NY Supreme Court cases which are entirely distinguishable.T Defendant’s Motion at pg. 59. This Court agrees that Defendant served his country as President and will do so again in a matter of weeks. However, that service is but one of the considerations to weigh under this factor.

Despite Defendant’s unrelenting and unsubstantiated attacks against the integrity and legitimacy of this process, individual prosecutors, witnesses and the Rule of Law, this Court has refrained from commenting thereon unless required to do so as when ruling on motions for contempt of court. However, Defendant, by virtue of the instant motion, directly asks this Court to consider his character as a basis to vacate the jury verdict, and this Court must do so in accordance with the requirements of CPL section 210.40(1)(d).

Defendant’s disdain for the Third Branch of government, whether state or federal, in New York or elsewhere, is a matter of public record. Indeed, Defendant has gone to great lengths to broadcast on social media and other forums his lack of respect for judges, juries, grand juries and the justice system as a whole. See People’s Response at Section IV. C. In the case at bar, despite repeated admonitions, this Court was left with no choice but to find the Defendant guilty of 10 counts of Contempt fot his repeated violations of this Court’s Order Restricting Extrajudicial Statements (“Statements Order”), findings which by definition mean that Defendant willingly ignored the lawful mandates of this Court. An Order which Defendant continues to attack as “unlawful” and “unconstitutional,” despite the fact that it has been challenged and upheld by the Appellate Division First Department and the New York Court of Appeals, no less than eight times. Indeed, as Defendant must surely know, the same Order was left undisturbed by the United States Supreme Court on December 9,2024. [citation]. Yet Defendant continues to undermine its legitimacy, in posts to his millions of followers. Indeed, this is not the only instance in which Defendant has been held in contempt or sanctioned by a Court.8 Defendant’s character and history vis-a-vis the Rule of Law and the Third Branch of government must be analyzed under this factor in direct relation to the result he seeks, and in that vein, it does not weigh in his favor.

8 For example, Defendant has been held in contempt by courts within this jurisdiction and sanctioned by others. People of the State of New York v. The Trump Organizotion, Inc., No. 451G851202O [citation] (“Frivolous lawsuits should not be used as a vehicle for fundraising or fodder for rallies or social media. Mr. Trump is using the courts as a stage set for political theater and grievance. This behavior interferes with the ability of the judiciary to perform its constitutional duty) [my emphasis]

Trump claimed he was too important to sentence. Judge Merchan responded that Trump has undermined the Courts at every level.

And then he noted that the Supreme Court had backed him, Merchan, in defending the sanctity of his court.

That’s not the only legal issue Merchan highlighted as important. Merchan also noted Trump’s claim to President-elect or retroactive immunity.

Defendant presents this Court with the novel theory of President-elect immunity as it applies to [citation], arguing that such immunity presents a “legal impediment to conviction.” For the reasons stated above, this Court remains unpersuaded that President-elect immunity is the law and thus, neither that doctrine, nor the Supremacy Clause or Presidential Transition Act present a legal impediment to imposition of sentence. Alternatively, Defendant seeks, in essence, a form of retroactive immunity. Both of these theories are briefly addressed below.

Essentially, what Defendant asks this Court to do is to create, or at least tecognize, two types of Presidential immunity, then select one as grounds to dismiss the instant matter. First, Defendant seeks application of “President-elect immunity,” which presumably implicates all actions of a President-elect before taking the oath of office. Thus, he argues that since no sitting President can be the subject of any stage of a criminal proceeding, so too should a President-elect be afforded the same protections. Defendant’s Motion at pg. 35. Second, as the People characterize in their Response, Defendant seeks an action by the Court akin to a “retroactive” form of Presidential immunity, thus giving a defendant the ability to nullify verdicts lawfully rendered prior to a defendant being elected President by virtue of being elected President. It would be an abuse of discretion for this Court to create, or recognize, either of these two new forms of Presidential immunity in the absence of legal authority. The Defendant has presented no valid argument to convince this Cout otherwise. Binding precedent does not provide that an individual, upon becoming President, can retroactively dismiss or vacate prior criminal acts not does it grant blanket Presidential-elect immunity. This Court is therefore forbidden from recognizing either form of immunity.

Merchan is right: these are garbage theories. Theories that even most of SCOTUS would reject.

And that may be why Merchan adopted his wildly unsatisfying approach to sentencing. First, he rejected Alvin Bragg’s bid for an Alabama Rule because it would not permit Trump ability to appeal — to appeal his retroactive immunity claims, to appeal his claim about judicial prerogatives. Similarly, Merchan declined to just hold the sentence in abeyance unless he was unable to sentence Trump.

This Court has considered and now rejects the People’s suggestion that it adopt the “Alabama Rule” which would preserve the jury verdict while terminating the proceedings as such a remedy would deny Defendant the pathway he needs to exhaust hrs appellate rights.

The Court has also considered the People’s alternative proposal of holding sentence in abeyance until such time as Defendant completes his term of Office and finds it less desirable than imposing sentence prior to January 20, 2025. The reasons are obvious. However, if the Court is unable to impose sentence before Defendant takes his oath of office, then this may become the only viable option.

And after telling Trump the only way he would just hold the sentence in abeyance is if he were not able to sentence him before his term, Merchan informed him that he’s inclined to given him a sentence of unconditional discharge, in part so Trump can appeal.

a sentence of an unconditional discharge appears to be the most viable solution to ensure finality and allow Defendant to pursue his appellate options.

Merchan is giving Trump a choice: Show up — even by video — and be sentenced as an adjudged fraudster — with the expectation that he won’t go to jail and if he wants to appeal things like his retroactive immunity and bad character he can do so. Or he can no show.

In which case the sentence will hang over his head for the entirety of his presidency.

None of this is satisfying.

But Judge Merchan seems to have carved out a little corner of rule of law — retroactive immunity and the judicial contempt on which even this SCOTUS has already upheld Merchan — that Trump can test before the Supreme Court. If Trump wants to take those chances, he can have an unconditional discharge precisely so he can make that appeal.

Or he can have the sentence hanging over his head for his entire term.

Big Media Ignoring the Who What When Why of GOP Apology for Trump’s Crimes

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Even before and especially in the wake of Trump’s guilty verdict, members of the MAGAt Party has stumbled over themselves to declare fealty to Donald Trump, and in the process to demean rule of law.

Chris Hayes described the process as a mob style pressure campaign.

This enforcement action is happening because the Trump people and the Fox people and most of the people in the upper echelons of the party understand: the only way to bring Trump down, to end his political career,  is if Republicans turn against him.

As long as they stay unified, no matter what he does, no matter how abhorrent, or how dangerous, or how criminal, or how vile, no matter how much of a threat he is to the nation, if they all band together, then in a polarized landscape, they can basically keep him afloat and make it essentially a coin toss.

That is why they dressed up like him during the trial and rushed to debase themselves in cringe-inducing fashion on any live TV camera they can find.

[snip]

There have only been two times in Trump’s political career where that dynamic of Republican unanimity has broken, where Trump was near political death.

One was in the aftermath of January 6, the violent assault on the Capitol that he stirred up, when everyone was criticizing him, when the blood was still on the floor of the Capitol including Lindsey Graham and Kevin McCarthy. Remember that? Trump’s approval rating dropped below 40%, about the lowest level it reached. Mitch McConnell was testing the waters for a vote for an impeachment conviction.

If it had not been for that man, Mitch McConnell’s abject, enduringly pathetic cowardice and McCarthy’s relentless quest to have the third shortest speakership in history — not to mention the legitimate fear Republican senators had for their families about violence — we wouldn’t have this issue now. They could have just voted to convict him and bar him from future office. Done.

Ironically enough, the other time — the other sort of near political death experience — was in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape. And just about every elected Republican tried to distance themselves and criticize him. Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus was even considering how to get him off of the ticket.

But Trump managed to hold it together, due in no small part to the fact that right at that moment, he got a guy named Michael Cohen, his lawyer, to pay to keep the porn star from talking. And so the Republicans never heard about that story, nor did the public, which could have been the political death blow.

The lesson he learned is if you enforce this totalitarian unanimity, you can keep chugging along.

Journalists not named Chris Hayes are covering this too.

But they’re covering it differently.

Like this 1,400-word story from WaPo yesterday.

It describes that Republicans are backing Trump’s false claims of victimhood. It quotes at least twelve Republicans undermining the verdict, most in inflammatory terms. It even notes, in lukewarm fashion, that Trump’s claims of victimhood have no basis.

But even though it gives ample platform to Bible-thumper Mike Johnson to screech, it doesn’t use the word “porn,” opting instead for “hush money.” It doesn’t use the word “fraud,” opting instead to describe “falsifying business records.”

If you were Martian dropping onto the Earth to learn what the hubbub was about, you would never know that the Speaker who claims to live by the Ten Commandments was running cover for a guy who paid $400,000 to cover up fucking a porn star while his spouse was home with his youngest kid.

This one, also close to 1,400 words, is worse. It doesn’t even mention what crime Trump was convicted of (it links to a piece describing that Trump was, “falsifying business records to conceal alleged affairs.”

Donald Trump — in the form of his University, his charity, his real estate empire, and finally his biological person — has been adjudged a fraudster over and over. Along the way there’s the lady he assaulted in the Bergdorf Goodman dressing room and the porn star he fucked who, he said, reminded him of his oldest daughter.

And almost nowhere, along the way, are journalists asking Republicans — or simply stating as fact — that the entire party has decided to apologize for fraud and fucking porn stars.

The press is giving Republicans a pass for conducting a wholesale assault on rule of law. Republicans are disavowing almost every thing they claim to stand for — and when you throw in the 140 cops assaulted on January 6, it would include everything — and yet the sordid details of what Trump actually did have disappeared.

Trump paid $400,000 to cover up fucking a porn star; he grossed it up to make sure it he’d kill the story in time.

It’s not just that Republicans are enforcing totalitarian unanimity in supporting Trump for fucking a porn star and covering it up. But that din of slavering Republicans debasing themselves to Donald Trump has silenced coverage about what it is Trump was found to have done.

Trump paid $400,000 to cover up fucking a porn star. Make the Bible-thumpers own that when they rush to defend him.

“Swept Up!” The Russian Payments that Led to Trump’s Felony Conviction

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There has been a lot of performed ignorance about the origin of the investigation that led to the felony conviction of Donald Trump.

Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ spox, Sarah Isgur, quoted Robert Jackson about prosecutors choosing defendants.

Kerri Kupec, the DOJ spox who helped Bill Barr spin key aspects of his unprecedented corruption at DOJ, likewise quoted Jackson.

Both mouthpieces for Trump’s DOJ insinuated that Alvin Bragg invented this case out of thin air, rather than pursuing the fraud revealed by an investigation that developed — and was substantially interfered with by Barr — while they were at DOJ.

Then, three of the NYT reporters who commented on Trump’s wild screed the other day mused about whence this investigation might have come from, with Maggie describing those whose own actions made them targets of the Mueller investigation in the passive voice, “swept up,” as she is wont to do (to say nothing about her refusal to discuss the way Trump’s pardons silenced key witnesses against him).

We know whence the investigation into Cohen, and therefore the investigation into Trump, came from, thanks in part to a media coalition including NYT, because the coalition liberated the warrants used to investigate Cohen.

As the first warrant targeting Michael Cohen, dated July 18, 2017, lays out, the investigation started from information “supplied by” — almost certainly in the form of Suspicious Activity Reports — a bank known to be First Republic Bank.

This Know Your Customer filing was submitted as an exhibit at the Trump trial.

The entity will be set up to receive consulting fees in the form of wires and ACH — all under 10K 1-2 a month, the wires and fees will be income from consulting work from personal clients, all domestic. He will then internally transfer the funds to his personal account at First Republic. He is setting this account to keep the income from his consulting work separate.

Even the original Stormy Daniels payment violated the representations Cohen made in that KYC statement (as likely explained in still-redacted passages in the warrant affidavit).

As Gary Farro, a witness who had worked at First Republic explained at trial, Cohen denied that the account (and an earlier one, Resolution Consultants, the plan for which he abandoned) had anything to do with political fundraising.

Q Looking now at the question in — labeled number 12. What does that say?

A “Is the entity associated with political 21 fundraising/political action committee PAC.”

Q And what answer is checked?

A “No.”

Q And do you know why the form includes a question about political fundraising?

A Because it would be something the bank would want to know.

Q And if somebody checked “yes,” is that something that would require additional review by the bank?

A Yes, it would.

[snip]

Q And looking at the questions towards the top third of 3 the page.

In the form does it say — does this have the same question that we saw in the Resolution Consultants form?

It says: “Is the entity associated with political fundraising or political action committee.”

A Yes. This is just the digital form of what was provided earlier, which would be the hard copy.

Q What’s the answer to the political fundraising question 11 on the form?

A Is “No.”

Q Now, turning to the business narrative portion in the middle of the page.

What business narrative is provided for Essential Consultants LLC?

A It’s Michael Cohen is opening Essential Consultants LLC as a real estate consulting company to collect fees for investment consulting work he does for real estate deals.

Within days after he set up the account on October 13, 2016, his October 27 transfer to Keith Davidson violated Cohen’s claims to be engaging in real estate deals. As Farro explained, had Cohen indicated the transfer had a political purpose, it would have invited more scrutiny from the bank — and possibly a delay in the payment.

Q Did any of the wire transfer paperwork indicate that money was being transferred on behalf of a political candidate?

A No.

Q Would the bank’s process for approving the wire transfer be different if Mr. Cohen had indicated that the money was being transferred on behalf of a political candidate?

A We would have additional due diligence.

Q Would that have delayed the transaction?

A It certainly could.

Had it ended with just that hush payment, had the hush payment remained secret, Cohen might have gotten away with it.

But it didn’t.

As that first warrant goes on to explain, after Cohen quit Trump Organization and announced he was serving as Trump’s personal lawyer, he used the same account to accept payment from a bunch of foreign companies, some of them controlled by foreign governments. That led the bank to provide more information — again, almost certainly in the form of SARs — to the Feds.

The most alarming of those payments involved $416,665 in payments over five months from Columbus Nova, which is ultimately controlled by Viktor Vekselberg.

The reason those payments were such a concern is that, as the NYT itself reported on February 19, 2017, Andrii Artemenko (Person 2) and Felix Sater (Person 3) had used Cohen to pitch a “peace deal” for Ukraine to Mike Flynn.

The warrant affidavit really downplayed the substance of the NYT story, which described Artemenko claiming that the “peace plan” “he had received encouragement for his plans from top aides to Mr. Putin.” In the story, Cohen excused chasing a plan with support from Russia based on Artemenko’s claim to have proof of corruption implicating then Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko.

After speaking with Mr. Sater and Mr. Artemenko in person, Mr. Cohen said he would deliver the plan to the White House.

Mr. Cohen said he did not know who in the Russian government had offered encouragement on it, as Mr. Artemenko claims, but he understood there was a promise of proof of corruption by the Ukrainian president.

“Fraud is never good, right?” Mr. Cohen said.

Cohen’s claim that, “Fraud is never good,” did not make the warrant affidavit that would set off an investigation that would lead to the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 counts of fraud.

The payments from Columbus Nova — along with payments from Korea Airspace Industries, Kazkommertsbank, and Novartis — would undoubtedly have resulted in SARs in any case. But given the report on the “peace deal,” it substantiated probable cause to suspect that Cohen was acting as an agent of a foreign power and/or violating FARA, which statutes were two of the four crimes the warrant authorized the FBI to investigate.

But false statements to a financial institution were also in there, in part, lying to First Republic about using the Essential Consultants account to pay off porn stars and accept big payments from foreign companies.

Michael Cohen, and so, Donald Trump, was not investigated simply because he had ties to Donald Trump. Claiming he was ignores the public record, including legal and reporting work done by the NYT. It ignores Cohen’s actions, including boneheadedly stupid moves he made as he tried to profit from his proximity to Trump.

He was investigated because he lied to his bank and then, even as he was making public comments about entertaining a “peace deal” with Russian involvement, used the bank account associated with the hush payment to accept big payments from a prominent Russian oligarch.

Importantly, this predication — a SAR implicating a politically exposed person about big payments from a foreign company — is far more than what predicated the investigation, and now six years of non-stop attention from the GOP, into Hunter Biden. That investigation started from a SAR about sex workers, from which an IRS agent fished out Hunter Biden’s name and then spent seven months digging before using Burisma to predicate a grand jury investigation.

If mouthpieces for Trump’s DOJ have a problem with this investigation, then they should be speaking out even more loudly about the investigation into Hunter Biden in which Bill Barr personally tampered.

Update: Corrected an error where I transposed the number of fraud counts Trump was convicted on. It’s hard to keep count!

Update: Isgur is out with an op-ed that scolds Hunter Biden he should plead guilty, without noting that to appeal the motion to dismiss based on the reneged plea deal, he can’t do that. Isgur also doesn’t mention that the gun shop doctored the form.

Fridays with Nicole Sandler

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Trump Undone by the Truth of His Pecker

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In days ahead, the criminal protection racket known as the GOP will spend an enormous amount of energy reinforcing Trump’s spin on the crimes of which he was convicted.

The court room was so cold it violated his due process rights.

Any judges who have Democrats in their family are disqualified from presiding over trials of Donald Trump.

It is unfair for a man to be tried in the state where he lived for 70 years of his life, where he built a business, where he committed his crimes.

Trump cannot be prosecuted for cheating to win while he was President and cannot be prosecuted for cheating to win after he lost the presidency.

Trump’s practice of hiring liars to lie for him should immunize him from any criminal liability for crimes committed by those liars.

All of this is nonsense. But it is nonsense that has become an article of faith for members of a cult that make up 40% of the US voting population. All of this nonsense is the price of admission to the Republican Party. And because they all adhere to this nonsense, it serves as a kind of reality for those who adhere to that faith.

I’m of the belief that Trump’s prosecution will only matter if the entire GOP is held accountable for willfully sustaining the Reality Show that says Donald Trump, and only Donald Trump, must be immune from accountability. Indeed, the criminal protection racket must double down now, because if Donald Trump starts being held accountable for his own actions, then the years of coddling his misconduct — the corrupt choices they made to sustain his fiction of invincibility — may start to backfire on all those who made those corrupt choices.

Upholding the fraud Donald Trump has been spinning for eight years has become an object of survival for the entire party. And not just for the party, but for their psyches.

And that’s why it is important to emphasize why Donald Trump lost the case, as was made clear by the single substantive question the jurors had: To re-read four passages of testimony, three involving David Pecker.

Those passages made it clear that Trump was personally involved in efforts to kill stories that would harm Trump’s election chances — and that Pecker refused to kill a third, the Stormy Daniels story, in part because he couldn’t have his tabloid be associated with a porn star.

Q. Around this time, in October of 2016, did you also have any conversations with Michael Cohen about Stormy Daniels?

A. Yes, also a number of conversations.

Q. Can you tell the jury about some of those conversations?

A. Michael Cohen asked me to pay for the story, to purchase it.

I said, I am not purchasing this story. I am not going to be involved with a porn star, and I am not — which I immediately said, a bank. After paying out the doorman and paying out Karen McDougal, we’re not paying any more monies.

Q. How did Michael Cohen take that?

A. He was upset. He said that The Boss would be furious at me and that I should go forward in purchasing it.

I said, I am not going forward and purchasing it. I am not doing it. Period.

Pecker’s testimony, which validated Michael Cohen’s, came from a man who said he still considers Trump a friend. It came from a man who said he viewed Trump as a mentor.

David Pecker spent years spinning fictions. He put that fiction spinning machine to work for Trump’s campaign, attacking his opponents and killing harmful stories.

And then, he told the truth about spinning those fictions. He told the truth about why and how he spun those fictions. He told the truth about Trump’s role in spinning those fictions.

Trump’s success, his persona, has always been a careful creation built on fraud.

And that fraud became criminal in significant part because David Pecker told the truth about the fictions that go into sustaining the fraud.

Update: ernesto1581 reminded me that this account of the epic production efforts that went into making Trump look like a flashy CEO came out yesterday, thanks to the final lapse of the NDA.

Trump Convicted of Fraud to Cover-up Fucking a Sex Worker

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The first five verdicts were guilty. Updates as they come.

Update: All 34 counts came back guilty.

Update: Sentencing will be July 11, the week before the GOP Convention.

Update: The Biden campaign has issued this statement.

Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain. But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.

The threat Trump poses to our democracy has never been greater. He is running an increasingly unhinged campaign of revenge and retribution, pledging to be a dictator ‘on day one’ and calling for our Constitution to be ‘terminated’ so he can regain and keep power. A second Trump term means chaos, ripping away Americans’ freedoms and fomenting political violence – and the American people will reject it this November.

Trial Attention: Don’t Let a Pecker Distract from More Important Stories

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In my opinion, Donald Trump’s criminal trial, which starts in earnest today, is no more than the third most important thing happening to him this week. While I think charging Trump for alleged crimes for which his co-conspirators have already been punished and in which Bill Barr’s DOJ tampered has merit, and while I don’t think you can separate the allegations here from his other attempts to cheat to win elections, I believe the Trump Organization fraud case and the outcome of the January 6 case (and his claim to absolute immunity generally) have far more impact on Trump’s ability to continue to wreak havoc.

So I think Tish James’ bid to have Knight Specialty Insurance disqualified for providing Trump’s appeal bond and SCOTUS’ review of Trump’s absolutely immunity claims are far more important events this week than the Alvin Bragg trial.

The same is true of last week. Jury tampering — abetted by Jesse Watters and other Trump allies — will be an urgent, ongoing concern. But there are a slew of events — the UAW’s election win in a southern VW plant, the House’s passage of Ukraine funding (and follow-on repercussions we’re likely to see from it), continuing Israeli and Iranian tensions and attacks on Palestinians, the likelihood SCOTUS will narrow the application of the obstruction statute in the context of January 6, even the planned withdrawal of US troops from Niger — will be far more important to the fate of the US and the world than whether Trump glowered or slept or farted in the courtroom.

All of which is my way of saying: beware of letting this trial drown out more important events. Yes, it is unprecedented to see Trump subjected to discipline. But this trial is sucking up far, far too much attention that might better be directed elsewhere — and all that attention is one of the reasons why jury and witness tampering are such a risk.

I will be monitoring it in passing, but will rely on the very good journalists who are in the courtroom rather than covering it myself. Adam Klasfeld (with support from Just Security) is, as always, one of the best journalists providing live trial coverage, Lawfare has a full trial team covering it, NBC’s Lisa Rubin and Katie Phang have been offering useful expectation setting.

David Pecker may testify as soon as today about how he conspired with Trump and Michael Cohen to manage media focus during the 2016 election. This trial may have very much the same effect.