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Democrats’ 2020 Primaries: Super Tuesday Results [UPDATE-4]

This post is dedicated to the Democratic Party’s Super Tuesday results. Not much sense bothering with the Republican Party’s results since GOP canceled a number of primaries.

Post will be updated as results come in.

Results about 9:40 p.m. ET:

State

Percent Reported

Results

Delegates

Alabama 16% reporting Joe Biden won 52 delegates available
American Samoa TBD Michael Bloomberg won
Arkansas 13% reporting Joe Biden leads 31 delegates available
California Results expected around 11:00 PM EST
Colorado 25% reporting Bernie Sanders won 66 delegates available
Maine 32% reporting 24 delegates available
Massachusetts 29% reporting 91 delegates available
Minnesota 20% reporting Joe Biden leads 75 delegates available
North Carolina 55% reporting Joe Biden won 110 delegates available
Oklahoma 83% reporting Joe Biden won 37 delegates available
Tennessee 69% reporting Joe Biden won 64 delegates available
Texas 7% reporting Bernie Sanders leads 228 delegates available
Utah Results expected around 10:05 PM EST
Vermont 69% reporting Bernie Sanders won 16 delegates available
Virginia 100% reporting Joe Biden won 99 delegates available

Rather expensive hobby for Bloomberg, to have spent nearly half a billion to win only American Samoa. I still need to find the delegate count for the territory. At least Tulsi Gabbard didn’t win Samoa.

Of note: Donna Brazile’s appearance on Fox News today. I’ve enjoyed watching the video at this link several times.

UPDATE-1 — 10:30 P.M. ET —

Results about 10:20 p.m. ET:

State

Percent Reported

Results

Delegates

Alabama 39% reporting Joe Biden won 52 delegates available
American Samoa Caucus held (not a primary). Michael Bloomberg won 4 delegates to Bloomberg

1 delegate to Gabbard,

1 delegate TBD

Arkansas 37% reporting Joe Biden won 31 delegates available
California Results expected around 11:00 PM EST
Colorado 36% reporting Bernie Sanders won 66 delegates available
Maine 50% reporting 24 delegates available
Massachusetts 46% reporting 91 delegates available
Minnesota 40% reporting Joe Biden won 75 delegates available
North Carolina 59% reporting Joe Biden won 110 delegates available
Oklahoma 93% reporting Joe Biden won 37 delegates available
Tennessee 82% reporting Joe Biden won 64 delegates available
Texas 17% reporting Bernie Sanders leads 228 delegates available
Utah 33% reporting
Vermont 88% reporting Bernie Sanders won 16 delegates available
Virginia 100% reporting Joe Biden won 99 delegates available

Wondering how much last night’s tornado affected turn out in Nashville, Tennessee.

Texas has considerable problems with voting which look like typical voter suppression techniques.

UPDATE-2 — 11:10 P.M. ET —

Results approx. 11:00 p.m. ET:

State

Percent Reported

Results

Delegates

Alabama 68% reporting Joe Biden won 52 delegates available
American Samoa Caucus held (not a primary). Michael Bloomberg won 4 delegates to Bloomberg

1 delegate to Gabbard,

1 delegate TBD

Arkansas 71% reporting Joe Biden won 31 delegates available
California Results expected around 11:00 PM EST
Colorado 46% reporting Bernie Sanders won 66 delegates available
Maine 58% reporting 24 delegates available
Massachusetts 65% reporting Joe Biden won 91 delegates available
Minnesota 68% reporting Joe Biden won 75 delegates available
North Carolina 84% reporting Joe Biden won 110 delegates available
Oklahoma 100% reporting Joe Biden won 37 delegates available
Tennessee 88% reporting Joe Biden won 64 delegates available
Texas 17% reporting Bernie Sanders leads 228 delegates available
Utah 49% reporting  Bernie Sanders won 29 delegates available
Vermont 94% reporting Bernie Sanders won 16 delegates available
Virginia 100% reporting Joe Biden won 99 delegates available

These conditions are absolutely unacceptable in a modern democracy — do open the image link. This is at Texas Southern University.

The Democratic Party candidates and presumptive nominee MUST make this an issue in the media and embarrass the fuck out of Texas’ GOP-led government, but do so in a way to encourage November voter turn out.

UPDATE-3 — 12:10 A.M. ET —

Results approx. 12:00 a.m.:

State

Percent Reported

Results

Delegates

Alabama 87% reporting Joe Biden won 52 delegates available
American Samoa Caucus held (not a primary). Michael Bloomberg won 4 delegates to Bloomberg

1 delegate to Gabbard,

1 delegate TBD

Arkansas 86% reporting Joe Biden won 31 delegates available
California 9% reporting Bernie Sanders won 415 delegates available
Colorado 58% reporting Bernie Sanders won 66 delegates available
Maine 66% reporting 24 delegates available
Massachusetts 80% reporting Joe Biden won 91 delegates available
Minnesota 90% reporting Joe Biden won 75 delegates available
North Carolina 99% reporting Joe Biden won 110 delegates available
Oklahoma 100% reporting Joe Biden won 37 delegates available
Tennessee 98% reporting Joe Biden won 64 delegates available
Texas 52% reporting Bernie Sanders leads 228 delegates available
Utah 67% reporting Bernie Sanders won 29 delegates available
Vermont 98% reporting Bernie Sanders won 16 delegates available
Virginia 100% reporting Joe Biden won 99 delegates available

Report in Los Angeles Times discusses introduction of a new voting system and resulting delays. Sorry I can’t tell you more, LAT site won’t open for me at the moment. Check in with LAT’s Matt Pearce instead:

LAT called the state for Sanders though vote tallies will be a looong time trickling in with some people still voting in Los Angeles area. Silicon Valley went for Sanders, wine country on the north side of the bay went to Bloomberg. Wondering if Livermore National Labs’ ecosystem went to Biden?

Adder: LAT didn’t do voters any favors. AP definitely didn’t do any favors, and we need to address the AP in particular since they are funded by newspapers and TV stations across the country. Who’s pushing AP to be first to detriment of democratic process?

UPDATE-4 — 12:45 A.M. ET —

Last update for me, I need to hit the hay. Maine’s at 72% and will likely be a while yet. California is now at 12% reporting.

My two cents: A substantive number of Super Tuesday’s Democratic voters went with the “safe” candidate, the one who they believe will restore a sense of normalcy and stability to the White House.

They want to reprise the comfort of the Barack and Joe Show, even if Barack won’t be on stage for this spin-off, even if Joe is nowhere near as on top of his game as he was in 2008.

What’s telling is this bit about Minnesota:

I don’t think Klobuchar’s endorsement alone could overcome a deficit of campaign apparatus. Minnesota’s change to a primary from caucus since 2016 also doesn’t explain this.

How Impeachment is Gift to the DNC… and the GOP

Trump has committed a lot of impeachable offenses. He’s profited from the presidency, put children in concentration camps (where some died), obstructed justice, various other things documented at length in the Mueller report, and a litany of other crimes, including sexual assault. For years now, and to the displeasure of much of the Democratic base, Nancy Pelosi didn’t seek impeachment. This was because (as she’s said repeatedly) it’s effectively impossible for impeachment to remove the president because of the Senate. It takes a bipartisan consensus to impeach and remove, it takes two-thirds of the Senate. Trump would have to be abandoned by the GOP, who would themselves be abandoning their most hard-core base. Nothing about this calculus or the Senate has changed since last week, so why has a whistleblower complaint about Ukraine finally put Pelosi over the edge? Why is she beginning impeachment at a time when it can’t really hurt Trump’s reelection bid?

After all that has happened, why is this particular Biden business more important than voting interference, human rights abuses, tampering with the DoJ, and all the myriad displaced laws and norms Trump kicks on Twitter just about every damn day? I know that a lot of people want this impeachment, have wanted it for years, and probably don’t care about the specifics of why it’s finally happening, they’re just reasonably cheering that something is finally happening at all. But it matters why, and the timing matters. Because this isn’t good timing for using the impeachment process to defeat Trump in the election.

This is about Joe Biden, not Trump. And it’s such a gift! Just as he’s beginning to trail Warren in the polls, here comes a Trump gaff that could keep him in the news, fighting Trump, for months. He won’t need to take on the more left ideas of the party (very much in line with what Pelosi also doesn’t want to take on) and we will all be glued to our screens watching the administration dodge being called to testify about Joe Biden, good ol’ Uncle Joe, and the Biden family. All we will hear until impeachment is over is Trump vs Biden, and then the house will vote to impeach. Trump will be the third president, after Johnson and Clinton, to be impeached. At which point, the affair moves to… Mitch McConnell. Mitch McConnell will not allow Trump to be removed, it would be suicide for the GOP, and considering how many of the MAGA Trump types like shooting the hell out of people, possibly literally for some elected Republicans.

The wonky-Ukraine-issue impeachment accomplishes two things: Firstly, it sucks the air out of the news cycle for everything but impeachment. This is a gift to the corporatists, unreconstructed Birchers, and kill-the-government types who have been fighting to destroy NOAA, National Parks, NIH, HHS, FCC, SEC, EFTC, the Department of Labor and so many other bits of the federal government they don’t want to exist anymore. With all eyes on impeachment, nothing else is likely to get air in the denuded American media landscape of 2019.

That is not, cannot, be Pelosi’s goal, that’s merely a side affect. The thing impeachment right now accomplishes, and in my estimation the only reason for Pelosi to choose this to be what triggers a doomed-to-fail impeachment process is that it puts The DNC and the moderate Democrats’ favorite septuagenarian in the spotlight, just has his campaign begins to falter, and Warren’s is picking up. The timing is terrible for the election — but it’s great for the primaries. The DNC, and the speaker, have their candidate, voters be damned. Whether he will be a good president, or will be able to beat Trump at all, is immaterial. This tactic is likely to work. All of our media will be Joe vs Donald, potentially right up to January.

In the meantime the governmental nihilists will be hard at work tearing everything they can down before the election, just in case Biden wins. The least America’s media, professional and social, can do is pay special attention to the little things that will turn out to be big things: labor rights, civil rights, environmental protection, consumer protection, public health, and so on. They are what will be getting gutted while you’re all getting hyperbolically angry about how the administration’s staff keeps getting away with ignoring requests from Congress. The most we can all do is keep a real primary race going, but that just got damn hard.


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Biden’s Opposition to Medicare for All: It’s All About the Billionaires, Baby

[Editor’s Note – this is a guest post by a friend of ours here at the Emptywheel Blog, Bob Lord. Bob is a longtime tax and finance attorney with some very salient thoughts on why the centrist Democrats are pushing back so hard on Medicare For All. One other note, we here at Emptywheel have purposefully not engaged on behalf of any particular candidate in the primary process, but the issues in play are fair game.]

By Robert J. Lord

Joe Biden has lots of reasons why he opposes the Medicare for All plan favored by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

The cost runs too high, the former vice-president tells us. People will have to give up their private health insurance. People will lose the right to choose their health insurance provider.

The list goes on, but do these reasons reflect Biden’s actual worries? Surely, he’s seen the studies that show Medicare for All would drive costs down, not up, as removing health insurance company profits and administrative costs from American health care totally changes the system’s accounting dynamics. Yes, an expanded Medicare would require administrative expenses, but nowhere close to the expenses that our current system requires.

Biden also knows Americans would welcome the chance to swap their private health insurance for Medicare. Don’t believe me? Speak to someone between the ages of 60 and 64 who’s relatively healthy. Ten to one she has her fingers crossed hoping to make it to age 65 without a major health challenge, so she can qualify for Medicare and never have to confront the insufficiency of her wonderful private insurance plan.

And very few Americans, we must keep in mind, choose their health insurance provider. Most of us get insurance through our employers. Employers choose the least expensive plan for all employees collectively, without regard to the needs and desires of individuals.

Given that Joe Biden’s stated reasons for opposing Medicare for All don’t pass the smell test, what could be the real reason for his opposition?

Could Biden simply be beholden to the health insurance industry and Big Pharma? Perhaps, but I suspect that something larger — the overall wealth of our wealthy — may be at play. After all, it’s not like health insurers and pharmaceutical companies are going to have his back come general election time.

Consider the difference between how Joe Biden, on the one hand, and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, on the other, view the billionaires and centimillionaires who make up America’s super rich. Sanders believes the greed of America’s billionaire class threatens the social fabric of our country and has proposed a significant increase in the federal estate tax on grand fortunes. Warren has proposed a 2 percent annual wealth tax on all fortunes in excess of $50 million.

Biden’s differences with Warren and Sanders go deep. He has assured his rich donors — at big-dollar fundraising events — that their lifestyles will not change if he’s elected. Biden, whose donor list includes at least 13 ten-digit fortunes, has made it clear that he doesn’t think billionaires bear any more responsibility for America’s woes than any of the rest of us.

Just this week, he voiced his opposition to policies that would make it harder to become a billionaire.

But why would billionaires and centimillionaires particularly care whether we have Medicare for All versus the Obamacare-with-a-public-option plan Biden favors?

To answer that question, consider the fundamental difference between Obamacare and Medicare for All: who pays. Under Obamacare, individuals pay for their health care, through the insurance premiums they pay and their out-of-pocket expenses for the charges their insurance policies don’t cover. The government subsidizes insurance for lower income Americans through Medicaid, but the bulk of health insurance costs are paid by individuals or their employers.

The public option, Biden’s proposed fix to Obamacare, won’t change any of this. Even if every American healthcare consumer chose the public option, putting the private health insurance industry out of business in the process, individuals still would be responsible for their own health care costs.

Medicare works differently. Under Medicare, the government insures healthcare costs directly. Individuals don’t pay premiums or co-pays. Instead, tax dollars fund the cost of the program.

All this means that the transition from Obamacare to Medicare for All would transfer the burden of health care costs from health care consumers, who share in costs based on how sick or healthy they happen to be, to taxpayers, who would share in costs based on their respective incomes and tax rates.

The great majority of Americans live their lives as both health care consumers and taxpayers. Under Medicare for All, they would see an elimination of both insurance premiums and out-of-pocket medical costs. They would also see a tax increase, but ordinary Americans would save substantially more in health care costs than they’d pay in increased taxes.

But those billionaires and centimillionaires on Joe Biden’s donor list? Their tax increases would dwarf any savings they see in personal healthcare expense. Some could see seven figure tax increases.

Viewed through the billionaire lens, Biden’s loud opposition to Medicare for All makes distinct political sense. He needs billionaires to fund his White House aspirations, which still drive him three decades out from his first presidential run in 1988. He’s not only convinced himself that his billionaire supporters pose no threat to our social fabric, he even seems to believe that any health care reform that puts the squeeze on billionaire fortunes does pose a threat.

All in all, a classic case of why ambition often blinds us. In a 2018 speech, just a sentence or two after saying the billionaires he’s courting aren’t a problem, Biden lamented that the income gap in America is yawning.

What Biden’s ambition won’t let him see: Billionaires don’t exist in isolation. We have approximately 700 billionaires today in the United States. We have a larger number of half-billionaires and a still larger deep-pocket cohort of centimillionaires. And so on. Which leaves our top 1 percent controlling close to half the country’s wealth and the country with an income gap that Biden openly recognizes is “yawning” and, obviously, a problem.

In other words, those billionaires Biden’s won’t let himself see as a worry really are inseparable from the yawning income gap that he knows is a problem.

Sanders and Warren, by comparison, are clear-eyed. They can see that when the gap is so yawning that treatable or preventable injuries and illnesses are killing Americans who can’t afford healthcare and bankrupting millions of others, the only answer is that society — through taxation — must assume the cost of healthcare. Other countries, like Canada, recognized this reality decades ago.

And when America’s billionaires, with Joe Biden as one of their many mouthpieces, stand in the way of that process because they don’t want their taxes to increase, their greed tears at the fabric of American society.

Joe Biden can’t see that. His two leading rivals sure do.

[Robert J. Lord, a tax lawyer and former Congressional candidate, is an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies. Bob previously served as an adjunct faculty member at the Arizona State University School of Law. Bob’s work focuses on the relationship of tax law to inequality. He contributes to both the Inequality.org website and to OtherWords, the Institute’s national syndicated editorial service. Bob also is a staff member at Blog For Arizona, the leading political blog in Arizona.]