I was one of the first to note that Palin’s actions suggested she was running for President in 2012 rather than VP in 2008. But that doesn’t mean I think she’d be successful. Here are my thoughts why I’m not all that worried about a Palin juggernaut in 2012.

I understand why the right has seized on Palin with such enthusiasm. They were successful with Bush because he allowed them to unify ideologically contradictory stances. Neocon imperialism and its associated crony defense capitalism is not a fiscally conservative position. Moreover, the promise of Compassionate Conservatism could only appease the charitable instincts of a lot of Conservative Christians so long. Mostly, though, Bush was only able to sustain these irreconcilable positions for five years or so by being an empty cipher–appealing to Neocons, fiscal conservatives, and Christian Conservatives–with the force of personality, thereby hiding the reality that at least one of those three groups (as it happened, fiscal conservatives and to a lesser degree, Christian Conservatives) would be ignored.

Palin is similar, only with her, the Republicans get to further obscure the emptiness of her positions with sex appeal. All the calls on Palin to lead the Republicans out of the apparent disaster they’re about to undergo are premised on the hope that she can wink and demagogue her way out of the contradictions to the claims they make.

But such hopes for Palin’s leadership are most likely to fail.

To understand why, consider first of all the two people who, in 2004, seemed poised to inherit George Bush’s mantle: Bill Frist and George Allen. Because you can no longer hide corruption, incompetence, and ugly racism, they were completely forgotten long before the primaries started. Conditions suggest that Palin’s going to meet a similar–if not worse–fate. 

That’s true, first of all, because the exposure of the campaign will bring some unanticipated setbacks to her. The Alaska legislature, for example, will return to consider what to do about the legislative finding that Palin abused her power. Significantly, they may well do so after she loses badly and after Republicans lose a long-held Republican Senate seat to yet more abuse of power; with each day, the reasons Alaskan Republicans would want to protect Palin grow weaker. Then there’s the Personnel Board investigation, that looks like it will be way more serious–and critical–than Palin ever planned it would be. Just as potentially damaging to Palin, there are the other abuses of power: the free trips for her kids and the per diems which will be investigated and may well be taxed if not elevated into even bigger ethics problems. Just as likely, Palin may be taxed for her use of the $150,000 wardrobe. (Imagine Palin getting a $30,000 tax bill as her reward for running for VP!) The Palins are likely to be the target of a suit by Mike Wooten’s union if not Wooten himself and I wouldn’t be surprised if Wooten sought custody of his kids.  And then there’s the possibility that further investigation of their house will reveal it was a big scam Sarah pulled on the city of Wasilla, or that the emails she has stalled on releasing will include other shockers. In short, Sarah has merely succeeded in postponing most of the repercussions that will come from the increased scrutiny until after the election–and it is by no means clear that she will escape unharmed. At the very least, her claim to be a reformer in Alaska won’t fare well.

Then there’s the fact that she’s got at least two more years as governor before 2012–and there is no evidence that she is any more competent at governing than George Bush. So long as oil prices remain where they are, she’s going to have a difficult time meeting the increased needs of an inflation-wracked Alaska. She almost certainly will continue to break her promises on spending cuts. And the only way she will be able to deliver on her thus far premature promise of a natural gas pipeline project is if she gets cozy with the oil companies she likes to claim she has taken on. So the three claims on which she ran this time–that she was a fiscal conservative, that she had taken on the oil companies and succeeded in "building" a pipeline, and that she is a reformer–will no longer be operative in 2012.

Finally, there’s the fact that she is unliked by a majority of the country. Her favorability ratings are negative in most polls. She was persistently accused–even by the media–of being a shameless liar. And with WardrobeGate and YouTubes of her appearances, she is a national laughingstock. Sure, Republicans might ignore her unpopularity. The Neocons and Christianist Industry leaders who would like to make a project of her may convince the party to embrace her anyway (indeed, that seems to be the goal of the post-election frenzy they’ve got planned). But they’re fighting an up-hill battle because he brand is already ruined. I hope they spend a lot of energy investing in that brand rather than focusing on–say–Bobby Jindal or Charlie Crist. But I suspect they’re committed to doing so because she excites them sexually, and not out of any rational assessment of whether she’s the person to lead the party out of minority status. 

So, in spite of all the frenzy surrounding Sarah right now, I doubt she’ll be leading the party in four years. I’ll do a follow-up on where I think they’ll end up going. But for now, at least, Palin’s concerns have to be on the immediate future, not four years from now.

Where is Howard Cosell when you need him? The Hulk has been smashed by a guilty verdict on all counts in his corruption trial. This is good news for all those that have fought Stevens, Alaskan corruption (Palin is not really one of them either), and the GOP lions that have laid waste to the United States Senate for so long. From The Hill:

Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Senate Republican in history and patriarch of Alaska politics, was found guilty of all seven felony charges for making false statements.

The verdict could spell the end of a 40-year Senate career for a man who rose to be one of the most dominant figures in the upper chamber and who helped transform Alaska in its 50 years of statehood. The verdict was reached after the jury deliberated since Wednesday and found the 84-year-old senator guilty of failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts from Bill Allen, the former head of Veco Corp., and other friends.

Many have been convinced, since the trial started, that the prosecution was intentionally trying to dump the case. Yeah boy, the prosecution tried so hard to tank this trial that they convicted Stevens of all counts.

People may take joy in the verdict if they wish; personally I will take none. My personal distaste for Stevens and his politics, and desire to win his seat, is no match for my desire to have the rule of law followed, due process guaranteed to every defendant, and an honest prosecution with full disclosure and fairness shown to the defendant. Even Ted Stevens. All of those considerations were completely and heinously violated by this prosecution team. The consistent effect over the course of the trial was astounding and the cumulative effect disturbing.

This case should have been dismissed for prosecutorial misconduct before it ever reached the contaminated and bizarre jury process that led to this verdict.

h/t Larry Flynt/Hustler

Ouch. If it weren’t for bad news, Sarah Palin might not have any news at all. In the first Troopergate investigation, conducted by the Alaska Legislature, Palin was found culpable of abuse of power as Governor. On the morning of her deposition in the second major investigation, this one by the Alaska State Personnel Board, Sarahdipity woke up to a skewering by the LA Times for rampant hiring of incompetent cronies for critical state offices. Looks like there may be a lot Palin has to answer for in her deposition.

* More than 100 appointments to state posts — nearly 1 in 4 — went to campaign contributors or their relatives, sometimes without apparent regard to qualifications.

* Palin filled 16 state offices with appointees from families that donated $2,000 to $5,600 and were among her top political patrons.

* Several of Palin’s leading campaign donors received state-subsidized industrial development loans of up to $3.6 million for business ventures of questionable public value.

* Palin picked a donor to replace the public safety commissioner she fired. But the new top cop had to resign days later under an ethics cloud. And Palin drew a formal ethics complaint still pending against her and several aides for allegedly helping another donor and fundraiser land a state job.

Some of her appointments make "Heckuva Job Brownie" look like Einstein. Tavis Colberg, Palin’s childhood buddy, was installed as the Alaska Attorney General in spite of the fact that he was barely qualified to appear in local Wasilla courts on worker’s comp claims. Franci Havemeister, another of Palin’s childhood friends, was made director of the Alaska State Agriculture Division. Havemeister was previously a part time real estate agent who stated a childhood love of cows as a qualification for the job. In multiple cases, Palin installed both husband and wife of family friends to cushy, well paid state positions for which they were unqualified.

As the New York Times has previously stated, Palin’s Wasilla High School yearbook now doubles as a veritable directory of state government.

Turns out Palin is to nepotism what McCain is to narcissism.

And, when it came to her friends and donors, Palin was as loose and generous with Alaska’s public coffers as she was executive jobs.

In one case, Jae G. Lee, a former Los Angeles businessman who is the proprietor of Party Time, a rundown grocery store and bottle shop in Anchorage, sought a $2.7-million state loan to buy an aging strip mall in midtown Anchorage. It was on the market because of a glut of similar malls in the area, all of them losing customers to big-box stores.

Lee and his wife, who had contributed $3,000 worth of office space to Palin’s 2006 campaign, won the low-interest, state-backed mortgage although it was unclear how the old mall would add jobs. Lee said he did nothing to improve his acquisition, but with the cheap loan his profits have been robust.
…
Two other state-backed loans with favorable terms and questionable development benefits went to Palin contributor and local dentist Scott Laudon and his partners. The investors got $1.2 million to refinance debt on Northern Lights Village — a gritty collection of shops including massage and tattoo parlors, a secondhand-clothing store and a video arcade. Its neighbors along a 1 1/2 -mile stretch of Northern Lights Boulevard in midtown Anchorage include a dozen strip malls.

Laudon and other partners also received $3.6 million to buy two automated car washes in Anchorage. The benefit to Alaska, according to the approval documents, was the retention of five jobs — which would have remained without the subsidy.

John McCain habitually claims that Palin is the most qualified VP candidate in recent memory, and that she is a maverick reformer specializing in clean and efficient government. In spite of Sarah’s overwrought complaints that scrutiny of her acts and record are sexist, it sure looks like the nailin of Palin is imminently justified.

Ever since the primary campaign for President began, what seems so long ago, I have related to readers of Emptywheel and FDL just how strong of a distaste that long time native Arizonans have always had for John McCain. It is not just the "new McCain", that is a euphemism for silly big time journalists that got snookered by the self serving kiss up, beat down blowhard. The John Sidney McCain III that you see lashing out in anger and careening wildly is the same McCain we have always known. And the "we" includes legendary Arizona conservative Republicans Barry Goldwater and John Rhodes. John McCain does not possess the personal honor or character necessary to lead this nation.

Today, the direct descendants of Barry Goldwater vote the conscience of their conservative grandfather. CC Goldwater has this damning message to the McCain Campaign:

My grandfather had undying respect for the U.S. Constitution, and an understanding of its true meanings.

There always have been a glimmer of hope that someday, someone would "race through the gate" full steam in Goldwater style. Unfortunately, this hasn’t happened, and the Republican brand has been tarnished in a shameless effort to gain votes and appeal to the lowest emotion, fear. Nothing about McCain, except for maybe a uniform, compares to the same ideology of what Goldwater stood for as a politician. The McCain/Palin plan is to appear diverse and inclusive, using women and minorities to push an agenda that makes us all financially vulnerable, fearful, and less safe.

When you see the candidate’s in political ads, you can’t help but be reminded of the 1964 presidential campaign of Johnson/Goldwater, the ‘origin of spin’, that twists the truth and obscures what really matters. Nothing about the Republican ticket offers the hope America needs to regain it’s standing in the world, that’s why we’re going to support Barack Obama. I think that Obama has shown his ability and integrity.

After the last eight years, there’s a lot of clean up do. Roll up your sleeves, Senators Obama and Biden, and we Goldwaters will roll ours up with you.

And Alison Goldwater Ross chimed in with another devastating blow to the gut of the dishonorable cad that falsely claims the mantle of her grandfather:

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s "Political Insider" blog reported Tuesday that Alison Goldwater Ross, another granddaughter, already cast an early ballot for Obama in Georgia’s Fulton County.

“Coming from a political family, I had insight into a lot of things,” Goldwater Ross told the newspaper, pointedly adding that doesn’t "have respect" for McCain.

Take it from the longtime native Arizonans that have known, watched, and lived through nearly three decades of the infinite angry ambition of John McCain. The man does not possess the requisite morals, temperament nor dedicated skills to serve as President of the United States. Vote Obama.

The once smooth, efficient and ruthless political machine that was the Republican Party has turned into a pathetic low brow sitcom. In yesterday’s episode, we saw John and Cindy Drysdale McCain move in with the Palins Clampetts. In today’s show, Arizona Representative John Shaddegg, part of the GOP House Leadership, sends Double Naught Super Secret Agent Jethro Bodine on a deep cover spy mission to an Arizona Democratic Party office.

Democrats are demanding that Rep. John Shadegg fire his deputy campaign manager after learning that he accessed a Democratic Party office using a fake name and fake address.

Party officials believe that Ryan Anderson, who has claimed that he was at the party office to purchase a bumper sticker, provided the fake name and address. Anderson was only discovered because he left the Shadegg campaign’s credit card in the Democratic party’s office.

Records show that a person with the name "Bryan Anderson" filled out a contribution form, which is a legal document that the Arizona Democratic Party uses to report contributions to elections officials. The purchase of a bumper sticker is a contribution.

"Bryan Anderson’s" address is a near-match to Ryan Anderson’s. Every number in the street line of the address is one digit off. Democrats will not release Anderson’s home address.

Anderson, a veteran Republican operative, previously worked at a major Republican lobbying firm in Phoenix. He also worked on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.

This is so stupid it hurts. Unless Jethro Bodine Anderson was going to put a desktop computer down his pants before he fled without the Shaddegg Campaign VISA Card, it is pretty hard to imagine what they sought to gain from their double super secret covert mission.

EPIC FAIL

The FDL family has had a profound positive impact on the federal scene on issues surrounding the rule of law. We are all hurt when justice is politicized. As I pointed out in Deceit In The Desert, the problem with politicization at the state and local level in many places is every bit as bad, and the effects every bit as ruinous.

In Maricopa County Arizona a battle to turn the tide and restore the fair and equal rule of law is in full tilt in the last two weeks leading up to the election. In the video, governor Janet Napolitano, former Arizona Attorney General and United States Attorney for Arizona, describes the critical significance of the office of county attorney, and how Tim Nelson will repair it. Let me tell you about the guy that broke it and who must be ejected from office.

Andrew Thomas has been the theocratic right wing tool in office as the Maricopa County Attorney since 2004. Attorney Gerald Richard, who represented the Phoenix Police Department and law enforcement interests for over 19 years, had this to say about Thomas:

As County Attorney, he has diverted resources away from prosecuting violent criminals to persecuting immigrants charged with “smuggling themselves.” His wiretapping of the Serial Shooter suspects without a court order could jeopardize the expected convictions in the case. Thomas has cut training for his staff attorneys by 90-percent, creating the need to spend 11-million dollars hiring outside law firms (that coincidentally helped pay for his election campaign in 2004). He has spent more than two-million dollars on billboards, booklets and TV ads that primarily promote himself. And he has signed off on the arrest of newspaper publishers and invading the privacy of their readers.

Senior trial lawyers and division leaders in the County Attorney’s Office, many of them there for decades, have been forced out or marginalized. Critical decisions are made on the basis of ideology, theology and public relations value instead of the law. Andrew Thomas has brazenly used his office to attack and persecute personal enemies. When Thomas went after local newspaper publishers that disagreed with him, he not only attacked them, he also subpoenaed and tried to attack their readers by using a grand jury to attach their personal and private internet profiles and usage.

Oh, did I mention the theocratic element of Andrew Thomas? Thomas is an aggressive and dogmatic right to life maniac. His hero is Clarence Thomas, on whom he has authored the most slavishly prosed biography you have ever encountered. Andrew Thomas is an up and coming darling of the NRO and Katherine Jean Lopez. Just how far will Thomas go in proselytizing and forcing his religion on others? Very far, and he will convert public money and resources designated for law enforcement and prosecution to do it.

No, the office financed the [religious] donation with RICO funds — money seized from illegal enterprises and granted to law enforcement for four purposes: racketeering investigations, gang prevention, substance abuse programs, and substance abuse education.
…
[A review of] RICO fund expenditures by Thomas’ office during his tenure and found $168,000 in earmarks for church-based programs and Christian ministries — many of them blatantly focused on converting people to Christ.
…
And the donations to Christian churches aren’t the only RICO funds Thomas is using to win votes. He’s also used RICO bucks in an endless campaign to increase his name recognition.

Read the whole article; it is an amazing report on as blatant and objectionable conversion of the justice powers of the state to proselytizing for a pet religion as you will ever encounter.

As related above, Thomas relentlessly attacks anybody who disagrees with him. Even judges. His attacks on the Maricopa County judiciary that try to adhere to the law have become an ongoing scandal in Arizona, resulting in several of them retiring and seeking state bar action against Thomas. Thomas has even sought, in conjunction with the NRO, to break up the Ninth Circuit, a federal court he doesn’t even practice in front of, because they are "too liberal". Thomas is also a favorite of right wing crusader David Horowitz and his FrontPage Magazine. Thomas is an excessively ambitious political climber that is being groomed by national right wing extremists. (Did I mention that one of Thomas’ other life heroes is Dick Cheney?)

As described in Deceit In The Desert, there is a wonderfully viable alternative to Thomas on the ballot, Democrat Tim Nelson. It is a neck and neck race with the critical two weeks until the election to go. If Nelson can defeat Thomas, it will not only make a world of positive difference in the justice system in the fourth largest county in America, it will put a serious dent in the ability of Thomas to grow and become a national problem like he is being groomed to be.

Tim Nelson’s race to defeat Andrew Thomas is so critical, both for the present and the future, that Thomas’ predecessor as Maricopa County Attorney, Republican Rick Romley, as well as former Republican Attorney General Grant Woods, have both endorsed Tim Nelson. So has wrongfully purged former Republican US Attorney Paul Charlton.

With two weeks left, Nelson is in a dead heat with Thomas, but Thomas has the benefit of massive advertising advantage both from his office propaganda efforts described above, and, more importantly, from independent right wing and Republican groups, both in-state and national, supporting him. Barack Obama has shown the power of the many through small donations to a candidate. Your assistance, no matter what the size, can help Tim Nelson be competitive in advertising down the stretch.

The effort is critical even if you don’t live anywhere near Phoenix, Maricopa County or the State of Arizona.

Help make a difference for Nelson over Thomas.

Thomas and Sheriff Joke

Hello from the state that has brought you John McCain. Sorry about that. You would think that would be enough shame for the Arizona Republican Party. Sadly, they have much more to offer. Reprehensible does not start to describe the efforts of the Arizona GOP and their poster boy of hate, Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas. You may remember Thomas, he was behind the blatantly unconstitutional arrest and attempted prosecution of the two publishers of the local independent investigative weekly newspaper, The New Times.

Andrew Thomas is a young, extreme right wing, fundamentalist nightmare, and he, along with his best friend Joe Arpaio, are the law in Maricopa County, the home of Phoenix and the fourth most populated county in the United States. Here is the latest morally repugnant bile out of Andrew Thomas and the Arizona GOP:

An official with the Arizona Republican Party says he pulled an innuendo-heavy ad linking Tim Nelson, the Democratic candidate for county attorney, to defense lawyers in child- pornography and child-murder cases.
…
The ad refers to suggestions made in news releases, news conferences and interviews generated by Rose’s agency.

In mid-September, one of Rose’s associates issued a news release saying that a lawyer who defends pornographers contributed to Nelson’s campaign. Nelson donated the $390 in question to a charity for parents of murdered children.

"It’s sickening that they have sunk to a new low," Nelson said.

Nelson characterized Thomas’ attacks as "personal, mean and with false innuendo."
…
The Nelson ad opens with images of children riding tricycles and eating dinner at a family table.

"They deserve a safe neighborhood, a secure home," a woman’s voice says. "They deserve the innocence of childhood and all of its wonder. And they deserve to be protected."

Then there’s a drum roll and a frowning photo of Tim Nelson flashes on screen.

"But can they count on liberal ACLU lawyer Tim Nelson?" the woman continues. "He took money from a child pornographer and from lawyers who defend child murderers. Liberal Tim Nelson isn’t just wrong. He’s dangerous."

What are Tim Nelson’s crimes? That fully upstanding citizens, that happen to be employed as criminal defense attorneys, contributed to his campaign. Oh, yes, and that over ten years ago, the firm that Nelson worked at was appointed by the court to assist an indigent defendant with a death penalty appeal. Not Nelson personally understand you, just his firm. Wonderful. The United States Constitution guarantees criminal defendants the right to counsel. But when big civil law firms, like the one Nelson worked at, donate their time in the interest of upholding the Constitution and the rule of law, everybody affiliated with them are tarred by Andrew Thomas and the Arizona GOP as dangerous criminal aider and abetters themselves. This is beyond despicable.

And what does Andrew Thomas himself have to say about this? Is he apologetic and embarrassed? Of course not. While admitting that the ad was slightly exaggerated, Thomas dives right back into the cesspool.

"The fact is: My opponent has prostituted himself to lawyers for Valley criminals," Thomas said. "I would hope the party, if they choose to help my campaign, will rework the ad to stick to the facts as laid out in our campaign material."

We talk so much about the national elections here, and with good reason, the Presidential and Congressional elections are of critical significance with our nation teetering on the brink of self immolation. But the simple fact of the matter is that the vast majority of real governance occurs at the state and local level. We must not forget that; those elections count every bit as much as the national ones in a lot of ways. More and better Democrats are direly needed all the way across the board.

In Maricopa County, a very critical spot in the rapidly growing and significant Southwest, arguably the most significant spot, there is a chance to make a dent. While Sheriff Joe Arpaio probably cannot be defeated, Andrew Thomas sure can. It is a neck and neck race, and Tim Nelson is a very solid candidate. Nelson is very close to Janet Napolitano, who is remarkably popular in Arizona for a Democrat, and he has run an honorable race so far. But Thomas is far better financed, and is benefitting from outside GOP money and groups that are active here because of McCain.

It is a miracle that Nelson is dead even with Thomas. Thomas won the office in 2004 by a huge margin. Tim Nelson needs help to finish off the deal. I will be discussing this race again in the coming days. In the meantime, however, if you live in Arizona, or have an interest in seeing an extremely critical race won by the good guy for once, help Tim Nelson out by donating some time or money. We always strive to make a difference, we have a chance here.

(Original Photo; color by twolf)

Charlie Keating keeps crashing his old best friend John McCain’s election party. People are starting to get the picture. Today, Keating arrives to help Sarah Palin get the answers she promised to Katie Couric.

When Katie Couric’s questions turn you into quivering Jello, you have a problem. Houston, Sarah Palin has a problem. In Wednesday night’s CBS interview of Palin, Ms. Couric asked Ms. Palin to explain her claim that McCain was a reformer that championed oversight. After Palin rumblin, bumbin and stumblin through a bunch of gibberish, Couric finally demanded a real answer:
.

Couric: But can you give me any other concrete examples? Because I know you’ve said Barack Obama is a lot of talk and no action. Can you give me any other examples in his 26 years of John McCain truly taking a stand on this?

Palin: I can give you examples of things that John McCain has done, that has shown his foresight, his pragmatism, and his leadership abilities. And that is what America needs today.

Couric: I’m just going to ask you one more time – not to belabor the point. Specific examples in his 26 years of pushing for more regulation.

Palin: I’ll try to find you some and I’ll bring them to you.

Katie Couric was a reporter last night; that is all you can ask for. Fair questions with a persistence for a legitimate answer. As you can see above, Sarah Palin had a startling lack of rational or cogent answers.

Since Sarah Palin is going to try to hunt down a polar bear examples of McCain "pushing for more regulation" so she can "bring them to" Ms. Couric, let’s help her out. Here is a prime example of John Sidney McCain III working hard on strict regulation; from the November 15, 1989 Arizona Republic :

Sen. John McCain, while a member of the House, twice supported scrapping a rule that limited risky investments by savings and loans, records show.
…
McCain’s efforts came after he accepted at least $21,000 in campaign contributions [and] … McCain and his wife, Cindy, vacationed at Keating’s private resort on Cat Cay in the Bahamas. That was the first of several such trips for which McCain did not reimburse Keating, as required by Senate rules…

McCain, as is so often the case, finally partially reimbursed Keating after getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar by the Senate ethics investigation. And just so it is clear what the nature of John Sidney McCain III’s relationship with Charles Keating II was:

Keating said he expected his contributions to politicians to influence lawmakers.

"I want to say in the most forceful way I can: I certainly hope so," Keating said.

That, Ms. Palin, is John McCain’s history with oversight, so please run this over to Katie Couric now that you know.

One wonders whether Sarah Palin is consciously avoiding discussion of John McCain’s sordid history of chumming fat cat money and then carrying their water of deregulation, or if she is literally so clueless that she doesn’t even really know about John Sidney McCain III and Charles Keating II. It is one or the other.

And, either way, this is the way John McCain pushes on regulation. It is in his history; it is in his blood. And it is never in favor of sound and responsible regulation that could prevent a financial crisis; when it comes to that, McCain is the disease, not the cure.

Energy is supposed to be Sarah Palin’s strong point, right? After all, she is the Governor of Alaska, and more to the point, was the chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, the agency that is supposed to "protect the public interest in exploration and development of oil and gas resources, while ensuring conservation practices, enhancing resource recovery, and protecting the health, safety, environment, and property rights of Alaskans." But when she was asked about ensuring that the fruits of domestic oil drilling would go to the domestic market, her answer was complete gibberish. By now, most of you have seen the video or read the transcript of her answer:

Oil and coal? Of course, it’s a fungible commodity and they don’t flag, you know, the molecules, where it’s going and where it’s not. But in the sense of the Congress today, they know that there are very, very hungry domestic markets that need that oil first. So, I believe that what Congress is going to do, also, is not to allow the export bans to such a degree that it’s Americans that get stuck to holding the bag without the energy source that is produced here, pumped here. It’s got to flow into our domestic markets first.

Most people who’ve commented on this have just written it off as incomprehensible nonsense, especially the bit about flagging molecules, but I think ‘flagging molecules’ is the key to understanding what’s going on inside Palin’s brain. When I first heard this, I immediately noticed something that others had not. That answer is not just gibberish. It’s gibberish from somebody whose grasp of the basic facts about energy markets is superficial and tenuous, at best.

Nine years ago, I was hired for my first software development job for an energy company. The company sent me to a short course covering the basics of the energy business. The very first page of the course materials was titled ‘Fungible commodities’ and described the worldwide market for energy industry raw materials (oil, coal, and natural gas). Palin started her answer with a very basic point that was actually germane to the question, albeit apparently contradictory to where she ended up. If oil is a fungible commodity, export bans are pointless. (I’m not necessarily endorsing the linked book’s conclusion, it was just the first source I found that made the traditional argument.)

The second most memorable part of that course I took was the explanation of natural gas pipelines. The pipeline companies deliver gas from one place to another, but they don’t necessarily ‘ship’ it. When a company pays to ship natural gas from Point A to Point B, it doesn’t mean that the natural gas they put on the pipeline at Point A actually ends up at Point B. All natural gas is the same (i.e. it is fungible), so you don’t necessarily get back the same stuff you put in. As the American Gas Association explains:

Displacement transactions permit the lateral movement of gas through a transportation network. The configuration of many pipelines is such that it may not be apparent whether a given movement of gas is forward or backward from the point of receipt. It can be argued that all transportation service is performed by displacement as the physical delivery of the same molecules of gas is impossible.

Palin riffs from one aspect of fungibility to another before she starts her policy response to the question. That response is heavy with emotional terms (‘very, very hungry’, ‘holding the bag’, ‘got to flow to domestic markets first’) without any clear sense of what the policy is (Are export bans good or bad, who can tell from that answer?) This is the sort of answer you get from inexperienced people trying to hide their inability to apply the facts they know to a real situation. We saw the same thing in the Gibson interview (‘Charlie, don’t blink’ seemed to be the core theme there), but we expected it when she talked about foreign policy. For someone who John McCain claims "knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America", Sarah Palin’s energy policy gibberish seems suspiciously like the results of late-night test cramming, not the product of real experience.

John McCain was never the principled steadfast man his false front public image painted him to be; although it is true that he really has been in a downward spiral of dishonor and deception during this year’s campaign. Even many of his staunchest supporters in major media are starting to realize the brutal truth for what it is. Joe Klein, Andrea Mitchell, Chris Matthews, a host of journalists at ABC, Andrew Sullivan … each day brings a familiar voice admitting that they can no longer harmonize the McCain persona with the truth in front of them. Thank you to each and every one of them, and welcome to my world. As a native Arizonan I have been witnessing what you are now realizing since John McCain plopped his carpet bag down and set up shop here in our state.

John Sidney McCain III would have you believe his Charlie Keating Five Scandal days of corruption and influence peddling are all a thing of his distant past and that he is some sort of legendary reformer now. Nothing could be further from the truth, he is still hard deeply entrenched in the lavish, exotic trappings of swag and influence peddled by the modern day equivalents of Charlie Keating.

In fact, new reporting by Ari Berman and Mark Ames of The Nation, in their article The McCain-Follieri Love Boat, which just hit the presses at the end of last week details how McCain has spent yet another birthday, his 70th, vacationing with a criminal con artist, Hollywood celebrities and big money lobbyists on a yacht in Montenegro. It shows what Arizonans have known all along: McCain is still the same old glad handing, do anything to serve his own raw ambition, politician who celebrated his birthdays with Charlie Keating and other power brokers at Keating’s private Bahamas resort two decades ago.

Before we delve into the recent foray of John Sidney McCain III into political influence swag land, a refresher on McCain’s malfeasance in the Keating Five Savings & Loan Scandal is in order. From a Keating Five Scandal retrospective by The Arizona Republic:

McCain already knew Keating well. His ties to the home builder dated to 1981, when the two men met at a Navy League dinner where McCain spoke.

After the speech, Keating walked up to McCain and told him that he, too, was a Navy flier and that he greatly respected McCain’s war record. He met McCain’s wife and family. The two men became friends.

Charlie Keating always took care of his friends, especially those in politics. McCain was no exception.

In 1982, during McCain’s first run for the House, Keating held a fund-raiser for him, collecting more than $11,000 from 40 employees of American Continental Corp. McCain would spend more than $550,000 to win the primary and the general election.

In 1983, as McCain contemplated his House re-election, Keating hosted a $1,000-a-plate dinner for him, even though McCain had no serious competition. When McCain pushed for the Senate in 1986, Keating was there with more than $50,000.

By 1987, McCain had received about $112,000 in political contributions from Keating and his associates.

McCain also had carried a little water for Keating in Washington. While in the House, McCain, along with a majority of representatives, co-sponsored a resolution to delay new regulations designed to curb risky investments by thrifts such as Lincoln.
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The first meeting, on April 2, 1987, in DeConcini’s office, included Ed Gray, chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, as well as four senators: DeConcini, McCain, Alan Cranston, D-Calif., and John Glenn, D-Ohio.

(Years later, McCain recalled that DeConcini started the meeting with a reference to "our friend at Lincoln." McCain characterized it as "an unfortunate choice of words, which Gray would remember and repeat publicly many times.")

For Keating, the meeting was a bust. Gray told the senators that as head of the loan board, he worried about the big picture. He didn’t have any specific information about Lincoln. Bank regulators in San Francisco would be versed in that, not him. Gray offered to set up a meeting between the senators and the San Francisco regulators.
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The second meeting was April 9. The same four senators attended, along with Sen. Don Riegle, D-Mich. Also at the meeting were William Black, then deputy director of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp., James Cirona, president of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and Michael Patriarca, director of agency functions at the FSLIC.

In an interview with The Republic, Black said the meeting was a show of force by Keating, who wanted the senators to pressure the regulators into dropping their case against Lincoln. The thrift was in trouble for violating "direct investment" rules, which prohibited S&Ls from taking large ownership positions in various ventures.
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According to nearly verbatim notes taken by Black, McCain started the second meeting with a careful comment.

"One of our jobs as elected officials is to help constituents in a proper fashion," McCain said. "ACC (American Continental Corp.) is a big employer and important to the local economy. I wouldn’t want any special favors for them – "I don’t want any part of our conversation to be improper."

Black said the comment had the opposite effect for the regulators. It made them nervous about what might really be going on.

"McCain was the weirdest," Black said. "They were all different in their own way. McCain was always Hamlet . . . wringing his hands about what to do."
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Keating’s businesses continued to spiral downward, taking the five senators with him. Together, the five had accepted more than $300,000 in contributions from Keating, and their critics added a new term to the American lexicon: "The Keating Five."

The Keating Five became synonymous for the kind of political influence that money can buy. As the S&L failure deepened, the sheer magnitude of the losses hit the press. Billions of dollars had been squandered. The five senators were linked as the gang who shilled for an S&L bandit.

S&L "trading cards" came out. The Keating Five card showed Charles Keating holding up his hand, with a senator’s head adorning each finger. McCain was on Keating’s pinkie.
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Keating was no ordinary constituent to McCain.

On Oct. 8, 1989, The Arizona Republic revealed that McCain’s wife and her father had invested $359,100 in a Keating shopping center in April 1986, a year before McCain met with the regulators.

The paper also reported that the McCains, sometimes accompanied by their daughter and baby-sitter, had made at least nine trips at Keating’s expense, sometimes aboard the American Continental jet. Three of the trips were made during vacations to Keating’s opulent Bahamas retreat at Cat Cay.

McCain also did not pay Keating for some of the trips until years after they were taken, after he learned that Keating was in trouble over Lincoln. Total cost: $13,433.

When the story broke, McCain did nothing to help himself.

"You’re a liar," McCain said when a Republic reporter asked him about the business relationship between his wife and Keating.

"That’s the spouse’s involvement, you idiot," McCain said later in the same conversation. "You do understand English, don’t you?"

He also belittled reporters when they asked about his wife’s ties to Keating.

The stench and taint is on not just the Senate, but Congress and the Federal government as a whole. The destruction of so many people, their life savings, and the national treasury for the bailout of the savings and loan industry caused by a powerful group of greedy and opportunistic businessmen and their lobbyists, through their bought, coddled and co-opted Congressional agents like John Sidney McCain III has faded from the American conscience and memory. It should never be forgotten, because it is a window into the ethos of the once and future John Sidney McCain III.

Yes, that’s right; not just the old John Sidney McCain III, but the present and future John Sidney McCain III as well. McCain did one of his patented swivel and pivot jobs and has, since the Keating Five misconduct, painted himself as some type of "reformer" of ethics and campaign finance corruption, nothing has changed about him once the surface is scratched. He is the same old John Sidney McCain III of the Keating Five he has always been.

How do you know he is the same old McCain? Just scratch the surface and take a look instead of relying on the false persona he pitches with the aplomb of an old fashioned snake oil peddler. Let me get the ball rolling for you (although if you turn over any of McCain’s rocks, you find the same rot upon close inspection). As promised at the beginning of this article, John Sidney McCain III is right back at conduct that is almost the twenty year separated mirror image of his dining on the teat of Charlie Keating.

The video at the top (h/t hidnusr) tells the story of John Sidney McCain III, con men and lobbyists. The basis is supplied in print by the Berman and Ames article from the Nation cited above, The McCain-Follieri Love Boat:

John McCain has been hammering rival Barack Obama for being little more than a vapid "celebrity" and "elitist." But The Nation has obtained a photo revealing just how star-struck a straight-talking maverick can become when offered the chance to celebrate his birthday aboard a yacht filled with celebrities–even if one of those celebrity types turns out to be an A-list con man.
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During McCain’s visit in 2006 he celebrated with birthday cocktails and sweets aboard the Celine Ashley yacht. In the photograph, taken in Montenegro at the end of August, McCain is shown boarding the yacht ramp towards the smiling Follieri and Hathaway. Just ahead of McCain and shaking hands with Follieri appears to be Rick Davis–McCain’s top aide and now co-manager of his campaign, who accompanied him on the trip and advised the government of Montenegro. A few months after McCain’s yacht party, Follieri strengthened his ties to McCain’s orbit by retaining Rick Davis’s well-connected Washington lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, and offering Davis both an investment deal and help in securing the Catholic vote for McCain’s presidential bid.

Follieri, who posed as Vatican chief financial officer in order to win friends and investments, pleaded guilty Wednesday in a Manhattan district court to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, eight counts of wire fraud and five counts of money laundering. As part of the plea, Follieri admitted to misappropriating at least $2.4 million of investor money and redirecting it to foreign personal bank accounts that were disguised as business accounts.
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An even bigger mystery is how Follieri’s boat came to be docked in Montenegro on McCain’s birthday. According to a journalist in Montenegro, the yacht had been anchored there for several days before McCain’s arrival, and only sailed away after McCain boarded. According to Vijesti, locals were told that McCain was meeting "friends from Florida" on the yacht.
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According to the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore, in January 2007 Follieri sent Rick Davis a packet of information on his companies Follieri Capital and Follieri Media, apparently hoping to get financing from Pegasus Capital Advisors, a hedge fund in Connecticut that Davis represented. "Follieri’s proposal to Davis had two dimensions to it–first, as an investment opportunity for Davis’s fund; but secondly, there was the political dimension, in which Follieri offered to help deliver Catholic votes to McCain," said Claudio Gatti, a reporter for Il Sole 24 Ore, who investigated Follieri for eighteen months.

In February 2007, according to a recent article in the New York Daily News, Follieri retained Davis’s lobbying firm, Davis Manafort. According to the paper, "on Feb. 27, 2007, Davis Manafort partner Rick Gates signed a confidentiality agreement drafted by the Follieri Group.

John McCain is still freeloading with bigwigs, lobbyists and criminal influence peddlers in exotic and foreign seaside haunts of the wealthy. Sounds just like the Keating Five Scandal, where someone in McCain’s immediate personal orbit, in Keating it was his wife Cindy that got an unbelievable "financial opportunity" from the criminal con man and influence peddler (Keating) and McCain got the promised delivery of political support, huge contributions and vote delivery in the election he was engaged in. In Follieri, it is his best friend Lobbyist/Campaign Manager Rick Davis getting the big "financial opportunity" while McCain reaps the gain in campaign funding and delivery of much needed votes as he runs for the Presidency he craves at any cost.

How similar in appearance are these constants in John McCain’s real, ingrained political persona? Take a look at this photo of John Sidney McCain III living large and phat with multiple generations of the Keating clan, lobbyists and power brokers taken during McCain’s 51st birthday bash at Charlie Keating’s private Bahamas resort. Photo scanned from the September 12, 1993 edition of the Phoenix Gazette (original photo; color by teh wolf). From the same Gazette article, Krista Keating recalls the idyllic days she spent with McCain while he bonded and partied with Charlie Keating, his family, and his rich and powerful friends:

I watch Lifestyles Of The Rich And Famous, and I see all the places we stayed.

She travelled to Paris, Monte Carlo, South Africa. She and C3 [Charles Keating III] lived for six months in Switzerland.

She partied with Michael Milken, Dolly Parton, Cheryl Ladd and lesser-knowns who wanted to be part of the Keating magic. She met the Pope.

There were vacations with John McCain and his wife, Cindy, to the Keating’s posh and private Bahamas resort, where she and C3 frolicked in the crystal blue waters with McCain, then a member of the US House of Representatives. They partied to the tunes of a calypso band hired by Keating and celebrated the August birthdays of McCain and C3, which are one day apart.

On the surface, it seemed the greatest freedom you could hope for. But Charles [Charlie] Keating was always there; always watching. (Emphasis added).

And so, here they are, matching bookends, then and now, on the career and ethos of John Sidney McCain III. Then Keating; now Follieri. McCain isn’t different; and he certainly is no "maverick" whatever in the world that amorphous term was supposed to mean in the first place. No, McCain is a standard issue, glad handing, moneyed up, self serving politician hocking his wares to whoever and whatever will benefit John Sidney McCain III the most at the time. Americans, and American media, are beginning to realize that there is nothing honorable nor unique about McCain and his political ethos. The shiny Earl Schieb paint job he has been fooling people with for years is wearing thin, and the real McCain is showing through; it is not an attractive sight, but it is the real John McCain.

The US economy is currently battered and on the precipice of significant meltdown from a housing and financial market scandal that is, although much larger in scope, eerily similar to the Charlie Keating led Savings & Loan crisis of the late 1980s that John McCain played such a significant role in. And once again, John McCain is out partying and pandering with money movers, power brokers and their lobbyists in posh and exotic foreign seaside haunts of the rich and famous.

For too long, McCain has been allowed to skate along in this election without acknowledgment and understanding by the press and the public of his deep involvement in the Keating Five Scandal. As another housing and finance scandal hangs like a guillotine over the necks of Americans, John McCain’s intimate ties with the power brokers, money men and lobbyists that create these scandals should be front and center in the discussion. John Sidney McCain III is, as so many are coming to realize, not an honorable politician, the US and world financial markets hang in the balance, and McCain’s Keating like tendencies should be known and considered.

My friends, John McCain is not "change you can believe in", just more of the same. More of the Same, and Old, McCain.