The Saudis appear to be moving three chess pieces at once. I won’t pretend to know what the moves mean. But I’d suggest that the coincidence of the three moves might suggest they’re taking an upper hand in the US policy-making in the Middle East.
Nawaz Sharif
First data point: after preventing former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from returning to Pakistan several weeks ago, the Saudis now appear to be forcing his return on Pervez Musharraf.
Mr. Sharif met Saudi King Abdullah in Riyadh yesterday evening, toclear his passage. Previously, Saudi Arabia had been complicit inkeeping Mr. Sharif forcibly in the country under an agreement with Gen.Musharraf, who had told the kingdom’s royal family that it was neededto ensure stability in Pakistan.
However, Saudi Arabia was angered when Gen. Musharraf allowedanother opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, back to Pakistan. The Saudishave always been sympathetic to Mr. Sharif’s pro-religion politics,whereas Ms. Bhutto represents the forces of secularism.
When Mr. Sharif landed in Pakistan in September this year, he wasquickly bundled off to Saudi Arabia by the Musharraf regime. This time,it seems unlikely that Mr. Sharif will be sent packing, as the Saudisare no longer willing to keep him. While Ms. Bhutto has engaged insporadic power-sharing talks with Gen. Musharraf, Mr. Sharif hasdoggedly refused to negotiate with the general.
Musharraf made an unexpected trip to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, at which he discussed Sharif’s return. And Sharif apparently met with the chief of the ISI.
Musharrafhad made a brief visit to Saudi Arabia on November 20 where he met theKing and apparently discussed the issue of Sharif’s return.
Though the military ruler’s spokesmansaid there was no contact between Musharraf and Sharif, it is believedthat Sharif met Lt Gen Nadeem Taj, chief of the Inter-ServicesIntelligence agency, who accompanied Musharraf to Riyadh.
So we’ve got a religious conservative returning to Pakistan in time to contest the election for President–with Saudi support and the potential involvement of the ISI.
Saudis to Attend Annapolis Peace Conference
And then, on the very same day that Sharif was finalizing his plans for return to Pakistan with King Abdullah, the Saudis announced they would attend the Middle East peace conference to be held in Annapolis starting Tuesday.
The US-brokered Annapolis peace conference was given a significantboost yesterday when heavyweight Saudi Arabia decided to send itsforeign minister to the launch of the first peace talks betweenIsraelis and Palestinians in seven years. Syria, Israel’s mostimplacable Arab enemy, signalled that it was now also likely to attend.
PrinceSaud al-Faisal said he would be taking part in next Tuesday’s Marylandsummit as part of an Arab "consensus" of support for the Palestinians -despite near-universal gloom about the prospects of agreement on thetoughest issues.
The decision had as much to do with Arab consensus as it has to do with any events in Pakistan. For whatever reason, it appears the Arab states may believe the Saudi proposal–normalization in return for the pre-67 borders–may be on the table. It even appears possible that Syria will win recognition of its right to the Golan Heights, pretty remarkable given Israel’s apparently successful recent strike in Syria.
Of significance, Bush will personally participate in the Annapolis conference, which might be read as a signal for his support of Condi’s attempts at peace-making over Cheney’s attempts to foment war. And it surely will give whatever discussions occur real emphasis.
Read more →