October 19, 2024 / by 

 

Trump’s GOP Is Running on a Platform of Freeing Seditionists and Cop Assailants

I’m halfway done my first review of the materials Jack Smith released today.

All of us who have followed this have concluded there’s not any new news (though the presentation of it reveals certain things about Smith’s investigation).

So why did Trump’s lawyers wail and wail about releasing these materials before the election?

Just days ago, after all, Trump’s lawyers argued that releasing these materials would alter the election.

It may be this:

As the appendix documents, on March 11, 2024, Trump posted to Truth Social that, along with closing the border and DRILL, BABY, DRILL, his first priority, Day One, was to free the seditionists and cop assailants who had fought for him on January 6.

Prosecutors cited that post to support their argument that Trump ratified the violence that day.

As the Government identified in its Rule 404(b) notice, ECF No. 174-1 at 8-9, the Government will introduce some of the defendant’s numerous statements that post-date his time as President in which he has blamed Pence and approved of the actions of his supporters who breached the Capitol and obstructed the certification proceeding,722 thus providing evidence of his intent on January 6.

The defendant’s endorsement of the violent actions of his supporters on January 6, and his sentiment that they were justified in threatening Pence—all made while the defendant was a private citizen after the end of his term in office—are probative of his intent during the charged conspiracies.

722 See, e.g., GA 1970 at 17:37 (Video of Trump Interview 07/10/2021); GA 1926 at 1:15:30 (Video of Conroe Rally 01/29/2022); GA 1971 at 15:51, 16:42 (Video of Trump Interview 02/01/2022): GA 1962 at 48:29 (Video of Trump at Faith and Freedom Coalition 06/17/2022); GA 1966 at 09:30 (Video of Trump Interview 09/01/2022); GA 1973 at 43:07 (Video of Waco Rally 03/25/2023); GA 1694 (Transcript of CNN Town Hall 05/10/2023); GA 1964 (Video of Trump Campaign Statement 2024); GA 1967 at 45:18 (Video of Trump Interview 08/23/2023); GA 1965 at 56:10, 57:11 (Video of Trump Interview on Meet the Press 09/17/2023); GA 1935 at 35:50, 01:16:16 (Video of Greensboro Rally 03/02/2024); GA 967 (Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 03/11/2024); Isaac Arnsdorf and Maeve Reston, 7rump claims violence he inspired on Jan. 6 was Pence’s fault, WASH. PostT, (Mar. 13, 2023, 8:09 p-m.), https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/03/13/trump-pence-iowa/. [my emphasis]

The GOP candidate for President has a criminal docket. And in that criminal docket, today, the government included a post promising to free seditionists and cop-assailants with the same urgency with which Donald Trump promises to close the border. “My first acts,” the GOP standard-bearer stated, would include freeing the people who assaulted the Capitol on January 6.

This was the proposal back in March, one of the first things Trump did after Nikki Haley conceded. And since that time, the entire GOP has fallen into line behind that plan.

The Republican Party’s candidate for President is running on a platform of freeing cop assailants and seditionists.

There’s nothing new in this appendix. But that post does clarify things considerably.


Fridays with Nicole Sandler

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Jack Smith’s Appendix

Sorry it has taken me so long to post the appendix to Jack Smith’s immunity briefing. The four sections are here:

Volume I

Volume II

Volume III

Volume IV

There’s virtually nothing new here. Trump’s temper tantrum was little more than a public wail that if people saw already-public documents about his plotting to run fake electors, it would swing the election.

That said, there are a few things we can confirm from the structure of all this, which I’ll write up over the weekend.


Could This Week’s Developments Change the Race?

As you know, Nicole Sandler and I do a wrap up of the week every Friday. We tape at 12PM ET, 5PM my time, and 9AM Nicole’s time (through daylight savings). It may show, but I usually walk into those recordings with no sense of what happened in the previous week. These weeks have all been so momentous for so long they’ve each felt like a year running into the next one.

This week, though, I think it important to assess the week as a whole, because I think it’s possible that events of the week will have a substantive change on the results of the election. No promises. But it is possible.

Start with the baseline: The race is statistically tied in all seven swing states. The race is close to tied nationally. If nothing happens, the race will be determined by two things: first, which side can get more of its voters to the polls, and second, how much Trump’s expected fuckery can thwart the actual vote from being counted.

At this stage, all we know is that people are voting — Jimmy Carter, a record number of early votes in Georgia, and even people from the hardest hit areas of North Carolina stood in line and voted in strong numbers yesterday. There are promising signs of greater than historic early vote from women (though Trump’s men could come in late). Nevada’s Clark County has still not posted the bulk of votes there, so it’s too early to tell if the Republican narrowing of registration in Las Vegas can swing the election. Early turnout in Arizona has been 44% Republican as compared to 33% Democratic, but the abortion referendum may affect how even Republicans vote.

It’s just too early to tell, yet.

As for fuckery? In Georgia, at least, there’s been some pushback against efforts to disrupt certification, including (again) from Republicans. NBC has done an update of how Trump deliberately stoked tensions at the TCF counting center in Detroit, and how Trump is training vote observers to do so again. Most counties in Michigan, however, will count early votes ahead of time. Meanwhile, Republicans — and one gambler who might be a certain South African billionaire — are using voting markets to create the illusion that Trump is winning, which will stoke distrust if that turns out to be fake, the same way shoddy GOP polls did in 2020.

It’s a tied game, and Trump has tried to systematize the ways he attempted to cheat in 2020.

Before we turn to whether events of the weeks might change that deadlock, consider why it’s tied.

It’s tied because 35 to 40% of likely voters are cult-like followers of Donald Trump. Those people live in a hermetically sealed world of his propaganda. Short of cognitive collapse, none of those people will abandon their Donald (though a surprising number of them are not voters).

It’s tied because 8 to 13% of voters believe a number of things that credit Trump with more success than he had and taint Kamala Harris with things she didn’t do. They blame Biden for global post-COVID inflation. For some justifiable and some unjustifiable reasons, they believe the economy is in worse shape than it is. They often forget how poorly Trump handled COVID. They may not know of Trump’s epic corruption. Because of a number of changes in the media, they don’t regularly access credible descriptions of the truth. Many of these people recognize that Trump is a horrible person, but because they credit him with successes he didn’t earn, they’re willing to vote for him anyway.

A significant chunk of these people can be motivated by the grievance politics that dominates the Trump cult — that’s why this year’s election will significantly pivot on education levels. Trump’s grievance politics are significantly based on his false claims to have been unfairly persecuted and his false claims never to have persecuted others. (This dynamic is a big part of what I’ve been trying to explain in the Ball of Thread podcast I’ve been doing with LOLGOP.)

In short, the reason the US is a knife’s edge away from electing a fascist is significantly a media problem, both the existence of the hermetically sealed world of Trump propaganda and the collapse and/or abdication of credible media for other reasons. The people who would make this election a blowout loss for Trump are often not accessing truthful information.

I read an anecdote on Bluesky that exemplifies this: Someone chatting about voting with two guys who planned to vote for Trump who believed that all of his criminal cases had been dismissed and who had no idea that Trump has been exhibiting signs of mental instability. It’s a media thing. Given that virtually no media outlets correct Trump’s false claims about his criminal exposure, you can’t expect voters to know better. And thus far, the press has sane-washed Trump’s recent decline.

Three things happened this week that may chip away at this dynamic for key voting blocks. Those are:

  • Trump’s meltdown in Oaks, PA, followed by a series of canceled events and poor showings
    • October 7: Trump cancels 60 Minutes interview, leaving Kamala Harris a solo opportunity
    • October 14: Trump sways to music for 39 minutes in Oaks, PA after giving word salad answers to the questions he did take
    • October 15: Bloomberg editor John Micklethwait savages Trump’s economic plans; Trump cancels Squawkbox appearance
    • October 16: Trump misses a few answers in a fluffed up Fox News town hall for women then really blows the Univision town hall
    • October 17: Trump pulls out of an October 22 NRA event in Savannah; Trump “postpones” October 21 NBC. interview
  • Cracks in the curtain of disinformation pulled across Trump’s failures
    • October 10: Harris appears at Univision town hall.
    • October 15: Coverage of Harris’ Charlamagne the God appearance focuses on the label, “fascism”
    • October 16: In Fox interview, Kamala Harris calls out doctored clip of Trump attacking “enemies within” and makes reference to Mark Milley’s attacks on Trump (though without using the word “fascist;” she also references all the Republicans, including former Trump aides, who’ve just appeared with her in Washington Crossing
    • October 17: CNN exposes the editing Fox News did of the women’s town hall and Bret Baier confesses they didn’t show the “enemy within” clip (but takes the blame himself)
  • The likely release, today, of the appendices behind Jack Smith’s immunity brief

To show why I think these developments might matter, I want to go back to Ramiro González, the man at the Univision town hall who asked Trump about January 6. As this person on Xitter noted, González actually asked a question at both Univision town halls. He asked Harris (mostly in Spanish, curiously enough) about rumors that the Biden administration wasn’t serving Republicans in FEMA relief.

In Harris’s response, she first asked if his family was okay. Then she addressed the disinformation about FEMA recovery. She told her story about never asking, as a prosecutor, whether witnesses and victims were a Republican or a Democrat, but instead whether they were okay. “We have seen where … people are playing political games,” she described Trump’s deliberate attempt to suggest that the Biden administration was playing politics. “You have a right to you know that your government and its leaders are putting you first, and not themselves.”

In the same appearance, Harris answered a question about whether she had been installed undemocratically, by describing Trump’s attack on rule of law. She listed the Republicans who were supporting her (including Alberto Gonzales, who is, whatever else you think of him and trust me I do, one of the biggest success stories for a child of migrants in US history), and described the mob on January 6. She stated that January 6 was one reason why Republicans were supporting her.

Those answers were on October 10. Less than a week later, González was back, noting explicitly that he had been a registered Republican, but was no longer registered as such. González pitched his question as a chance for Trump to earn back his vote. I think González sincerely wanted Trump to do so. González asked about January 6, about COVID response, about Pence not supporting him anymore.

Yes, this response was riddled with lies. But even basic ones, like his claim that “we” didn’t have guns, are going unchallenged even when journalists claim to fact check these claims. Still, Trump also didn’t answer the question, and that matters. He was asked about his inaction on January 6, not why people came to DC. He spoke instead about how many people wanted to hear him speak.

Importantly, it’s not just González who seemed to find this answer ridiculous. As the camera panned, several women sat with their arms folded; one looked shocked when Trump claimed no one was killed.

What I think we can see in these two appearances was what happens when Harris has a chance to break through the disinformation that Trump has been spreading. González and Mario Sigbaum, the guy who asked whether she had been installed undemocratically, came in to the Harris town hall believing bullshit that Trump had fed them. The Biden administration was withholding relief from Republicans. Harris had pushed Biden aside and gotten herself installed undemocratically. I have no idea whether her response worked for Sigbaum, but in answering Sigbaum, Harris said things that González would raise a week later with Trump, including that his former people were no longer supporting him.

This is the task before Kamala Harris, as more low-information voters head to the polls. She has to find a way to crack through the wave of disinformation that Trump has spread. These two clips show, I think, that when she has a chance to do that, either what she says or the references she makes or the empathy and leadership she models can be successful in persuading people not just that she’ll put their interests first, but that they’ve been lied to.

To be fair, they’re still getting lied to on social media. This week, for example, Christopher Rufo has been trying to seed claims that Kamala Harris plagiarized her book by cutting and pasting from a press release that the book cited. Many in the traditional press are still not telling the truth about Donald Trump — not about the guns his supporters brought to the Capitol, not about his obvious meltdowns, not about his criminal exposure.

But Trump’s public meltdown and his string of cancellations has finally titillated the chattering class whose claim that Harris couldn’t handle a tough interview was soundly debunked in the Bret Baier interview. Trump’s own fitness has become an issue again, eight years after the press got bored with that story so instead turned to Hillary’s emails.

And it has become clear, in the last week, that Harris’ events with Republicans have started to serve an additional purpose, in addition to giving Republicans permission to support her (though to be clear: González is the kind of self-identified Republican for whom that permission may be important). Those events, and Harris’ discussion of them, are a way to describe how many Trump Administration veterans, how many Republicans, have found him to be unfit.

Have found him to be a fascist.

They offer a credible way to make Trump’s unfitness a story. It’s the kind of story that may have helped to persuade González.

Again, I make no promises this will work. If it doesn’t, we’re looking at turnout and knowledge that Trump’s planning fuckery, even if we only know the half of what he plans.

But events of the last week may finally have stripped some of the curtain of lies that Trump hides behind.


Hen in the Fox House: Jorge Velázquez and Ramiro González Better Served Democracy than Bret Baier

Fox News has been a toxin in the United States for most of thirty years. Yesterday, Kamala Harris went into the Fox House in an attempt to chisel away at that toxin.

It’ll be days, weeks, years before we learn how it worked, in part, because it was (in my opinion) only the third most important TV yesterday.

The most important TV was probably Trump’s town hall on Univision. Six minutes in, a man named Jorge Velázquez took the mic (after Trump offered a smarmy compliment him on his hair, which is the kind of beautiful thick mane that Trump covets). Velázquez described that he used to pick strawberries and broccoli and asked, if Trump deports everyone he wants, who will do that work and how much will food prices go up. (Given the way he distilled the problem with Trump’s mass deportation plans with one poignant question, I would be unsurprised if he has some tie to the United Farm Workers,)

Trump immediately said he was the best thing to happen to farmers. He seemed to suggest he would bring back the bracero program (since Elon Musk has begun paying Trump’s bills, Trump has been pushing to greatly expand legal immigration). But he ultimately didn’t answer the question. It was an unresponsive answer to a question that every person who imagines themselves a journalist should be asking.

That wasn’t the only challenging question Trump dodged. After 25 minutes, José Saralegui asked Trump why he lied about the Haitians in Springfield. After 33 minutes, Ramiro González, a Republican who has dropped his registration in the party, invited Trump to win back his support by explaining his inaction on January 6. Trump not only offered the platitudes he always does, lied about his supporters bringing guns, and used the first person plural to align himself with the mob (which may end up being useful to Jack Smith), but he did not answer the question. By that point, a number of the viewers in the audience had a hostile body language to Trump. After 40 minutes, Jesús González asked Trump to explain his gun control policy to victims of school shootings. After 43 minutes, Carlos Aguilera asked Trump if he still considered climate change a hoax.

In this forum, average voters asked Trump the kind of questions that journalists no longer do. And they did so on an outlet that sill commands a great deal of trust from its viewers.

The second most important TV yesterday may be the Fox Town Hall for women.

It was everything that Trump voters distrust about the media (though will overlook here): A hand-selected group of Trump sycophants that was edited to take out parts damaging to Fox (including that one participant had already voted for Trump).

The Georgia Federation of Republican Women wrote on its Facebook page Wednesday that the group helped host the event, posting photos from the venue and writing they were “Super excited for the opportunity of hosting this event right here in Georgia!”

Shortly after CNN reached out to the group and Fox News about their role, the post was edited to state they were “excited for the opportunity of attending this event right here in Georgia!”

[snip]

The first question posed to Trump at the town hall came from a woman identified as Lisa, who asked the former president a question about the economy. The network did not disclose that Lisa is also the president of the Fulton County Republican Women group.

Some of the town hall attendees made it clear they were supporters of the former president, either in their questioning or in their attire.

“I want to thank you for coming to a room full of women the current administration would consider domestic terrorists,” a woman named Alicia said to laughter from the audience before a question about foreign policy.

But a portion of Alicia’s question was edited by Fox News to remove her admission that she was voting for Trump.

“I proudly cast my vote for you today. I hope they count it,” she added, according to an audio recording from a CNN reporter in attendance.

While it’s common for a pre-taped event or interview to be edited for time, Alicia’s short remark came in the middle of her question, which remained intact on the broadcast.

During another moment missing from Fox’s broadcast, Trump asked the crowd who they were voting for, leading to a chant of “Trump, Trump” breaking out by the attendees.

And Trump still bolloxed three questions. In response to a visibly distraught woman asking about child care costs, he offered the same babbling pablum about assigning Ivanka to address the issue that he offered at the NY Economic Club. In response to a softball about IVF, Trump first claimed to he the father of IVF before confessing he needed Katie Britt to explain why it was important. And then when a woman asked Trump about making choices for her own body, Trump offered the same canned answer about moving abortion back to the states but him, personally, believing in exceptions that don’t exist in a number of states.

Within the safe space of Harris Faulkner’s set, Trump seemed not to care about offering credible answers. The women in the room will vote for him anyway. But clips of his answers will circulate outside that safe space.

Importantly, Fox also edited a clip from the woman’s town hall, to cut Trump’s most fascistic speech, identifying the Pelosis as the “enemy within.” When Bret Baier questioned Kamala Harris about it during their interview, she called him on the edit, and used it to talk about what “you and I both know” about Trump’s threats to turn the military on Americans. What was meant to be one in a series of gotchas instead became a moment for Harris to point to things that Fox deliberately keeps from its viewers: the threat Trump poses to democracy.

When Baier played a Trump transgender ad, offering little excuse for doing so, Harris noted that Trump had paid $20 million to instill fear about an issue that has little to do with issues that affect people’s lives. Again, she pointed to the spectacle that Fox viewers consume unthinkingly.

The Fox News interview will not win over voters, by itself. But Harris turned Fox into an issue. She called out Baier, repeatedly, for interrupting her. He kept doing it.

She also revealed things that don’t get covered at Fox. Harris mentioned having just been on the stage with Trump’s former staffers twice. She mentioned his former aides saying that he was not fit to be President. She mentioned Trump’s accusations there’s an enemy within. She mentioned that Mark Milley said that Donald Trump was a threat, without raising the word fascism (after which Baier attempted to dismiss it by specifying it was a quote in Bob Woodward’s book, telling viewers where to find more). She described Mike Pence’s criticisms of Trump and joked that Pence’s opposition to Trump is why the job was open to pick JD Vance.

All of these are things that are not permitted on Fox News.

During several of those exchanges, Baier’s face looked pained, as if he was acutely aware of the danger of letting such things be aired on Fox News.

After 25 minutes, as Baier was trying to drown out Harris’ criticism of Trump’s handling of Iran, he said, “We’re talking over each other, I apologize.”

Harris responded,

I would like that we would have a conversation that is grounded in full assessment of the facts which includes — I think this interview is supposed to be about the choices that your viewers should be presented about this election. And the contrast is important.

Baier interrupted again. As Harris told viewers to go check out her site to see her solutions, Baier interrupted again.

It’s the term, “we both know” which Harris used at least four times, that resonates.

Someone commenting after the interview voiced the same impression I have of it: It’s a Google interview. [Update: It was Brian Stelter.] No one will be convinced by it. But a number of people might Google to find out what the hell Harris was talking about — to find out what Milley said, to find out what Republicans supporting her have said to explain why, even to find out her plans to help people buy homes.

And when they discover that it’s actually Fox — and not CBS, as the Fox-fueled conspiracy holds — that is hiding stuff from its viewers, they may grow to question what they’ve been told.

But the Baier interview was, in my opinion, only the third most important TV yesterday. That’s significantly true because there are far more undecided voters among Univision’s viewers than among Fox’s. And Trump showed contempt in that situation. He showed contempt to undecided Latino voters, to their face. And he refused to answer the questions that no one else will ask.

Normally, the whitewashing that Fox does for Trump hides how contemptuous he is of American voters. Yesterday, there were several places where voters might see the cracks in that whitewashing.


Jack Smith Takes Up the Aid and Abet Theory Endorsed by Judge Amit Mehta in 2022

Back in February 2022, 32 months ago, think I was the only one who made much of Judge Amit Mehta’s ruling that Trump might plausibly be on the hook for abetting the assaults of cops at the Capitol on January 6.

Halberstam v. Welch remains the high-water mark of the D.C. Circuit’s explanation of aiding-and-abetting liability. The court there articulated two particular principles pertinent to this case. It observed that “the fact of encouragement was enough to create joint liability” under an aiding-and-abetting theory, but “[m]ere presence . . . would not be sufficient.” 705 F.2d at 481. It also said that “[s]uggestive words may also be enough to create joint liability when they plant the seeds of action and are spoken by a person in an apparent position of authority.” Id. at 481–82. A “position of authority” gives a “suggestion extra weight.” Id. at 482.

Applying those principles here, Plaintiffs have plausibly pleaded a common law claim of assault based on an aiding-and-abetting theory of liability. A focus just on the January 6 Rally Speech—without discounting Plaintiffs’ other allegations—gets Plaintiffs there at this stage. President Trump’s January 6 Speech is alleged to have included “suggestive words” that “plant[ed] the seeds of action” and were “spoken by a person in an apparent position of authority.” He was not “merely present.” Additionally, Plaintiffs have plausibly established that had the President not urged rally-goers to march to the Capitol, an assault on the Capitol building would not have occurred, at least not on the scale that it did. That is enough to make out a theory of aiding-and-abetting liability at the pleadings stage.

I noted at the time that Judge Mehta — whose ruling on Trump’s susceptibility to lawsuit for actions taken as a candidate would largely be adopted in the DC Circuit’s opinion on the topic — was presiding over a number of the key assault cases where the since-convicted defendants described being called to DC or ordered to march to the Capitol by Trump before they started beating the shit out of some cops.

He also presided over the Oath Keeper cases.

That’s interesting background to Jack Smith’s response to Trump’s supplement to his motion to dismiss his indictment.

As I expected, Smith noted that Trump’s frivolous supplement didn’t even mention the language in the superseding indictment alleging that Trump willfully created false evidence.

Beyond that critical flaw, the defendant’s supplement ignores entirely that the superseding indictment includes allegations that involve the creation of false evidence. As construed by Fischer, Section 1512(c)(1) covers impairment of records, documents, or objects by altering, destroying, mutilating, or concealing them, and Section 1512(c)(2) covers the impairment (or attempted impairment) of records, documents, and objects by other means—such as by “creating false evidence.” 144 S. Ct. at 2185-86 (citing United States v. Reich, 479 F.3d 179 (2d Cir. 2007) (Sotomayor, J.)). In Reich, for example, the defendant was convicted under Section 1512(c)(2) after he forged a court order and sent it to an opposing party intending to cause (and in fact causing) that party to withdraw a mandamus petition then pending before an appellate court. 479 F.3d at 183, 185-87. Just as the defendant in Reich violated Section 1512(c)(2) by “inject[ing] a false order into ongoing litigation to which he was a party,” id. at 186, the superseding indictment alleges that the defendant and his co-conspirators created fraudulent electoral certificates that they intended to introduce into the congressional proceeding on January 6 to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. See ECF No. 226 at ¶¶ 50-66.

That’s the primary reason I didn’t even treat Trump’s filing with much attention: it ignored how differently situated Trump is than the Fischer defendants.

But I’m most interested in the way Smith rebuts Trump’s argument that he bears no responsibility for the riots at the Capitol. He adopts that same aid and abet theory that Judge Mehta endorsed back in 2022.

Contrary to the defendant’s claim (ECF No. 255 at 7) that he bears no factual or legal responsibility for the “events on January 6,” the superseding indictment plainly alleges that the defendant willfully caused his supporters to obstruct and attempt to obstruct the proceeding by summoning them to Washington, D.C., and then directing them to march to the Capitol to pressure the Vice President and legislators to reject the legitimate certificates and instead rely on the fraudulent electoral certificates. See, e.g., ECF No. 226 at ¶¶ 68, 79, 82, 86-87, 94. Under 18 U.S.C. § 2(b), a defendant is criminally liable when he “willfully causes an act to be done which if directly performed by him or another would be” a federal offense. See, e.g., United States v. Hsia, 176 F.3d 517, 522 (D.C. Cir. 1999) (upholding a conviction for willfully causing a violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1001). [my emphasis]

Smith then repeats that language of “willfully caus[ing]” people to storm the Capitol.

As described above, the superseding indictment alleges that the defendant willfully caused others to violate Section 1512(c)(2) when he “repeated false claims of election fraud, gave false hope that the Vice President might change the election outcome, and directed the crowd in front of him to go to the Capitol as a means to obstruct the certification,” ECF No. 226 at ¶ 86, by pressuring the Vice President and legislators to accept the fraudulent certificates for certain states in lieu of those states’ legitimate certificates. Those allegations link the defendant’s actions on January 6 directly to his efforts to corruptly obstruct the certification proceeding and establish the elements of a violation of Section 1512(c)(2), which suffices to resolve the defendant’s motion to dismiss on statutory grounds. [my emphasis]

Note that this reliance on an abetting theory of liability for the riot explains DOJ’s effort to sustain some select 1512(c)(2) charges against crime scene defendants. Smith will want to closely tie Trump to the actions of key crime scene defendants.

But that depends on sustaining at least some of those key cases. But they’ve already taken at least some steps to do that. In at least one case, cooperating Oath Keeper Jon Schaffer, they’ve done an addendum to the statement of facts to sustain the plea under Fischer.

Perhaps relatedly, the nature of Schaffer’s cooperation remains redacted in the government sentencing memo asking for probation for Schaffer.

For over a year, Trump’s team has been trying to disavow his mob, and for almost a year, prosecutors have promised to show how Trump obstructed the vote certification through the actions of specific rioters.

At trial, the Government will prove these allegations with evidence that the defendant’s supporters took obstructive actions at the Capitol at the defendant’s direction and on his behalf. This evidence will include video evidence demonstrating that on the morning of January 6, the defendant encouraged the crowd to go to the Capitol throughout his speech, giving the earliest such instruction roughly 15 minutes into his remarks; testimony, video, photographic, and geolocation evidence establishing that many of the defendant’s supporters responded to his direction and moved from his speech at the Ellipse to the Capitol; and testimony, video, and photographic evidence that specific individuals who were at the Ellipse when the defendant exhorted them to “fight” at the Capitol then violently attacked law enforcement and breached the Capitol.

The indictment also alleges, and the Government will prove at trial, that the defendant used the angry crowd at the Capitol as a tool in his pressure campaign on the Vice President and to obstruct the congressional certification. Through testimony and video evidence, the Government will establish that rioters were singularly focused on entering the Capitol building, and once inside sought out where lawmakers were conducting the certification proceeding and where the electoral votes were being counted. And in particular, the Government will establish through testimony and video evidence that after the defendant repeatedly and publicly pressured and attacked the Vice President, the rioting crowd at the Capitol turned their anger toward the Vice President when they learned he would not halt the certification, asking where the Vice President was and chanting that they would hang him. [my emphasis]

As I’ve said, I think Jack Smith may believe he has the evidence to prove Trump more actively incited violence, but was prevented from indicting that before the election. But for now, Smith is making it explicit that he is adopting the theory of liability that Judge Mehta ruled was at least plausible, years ago.


325,000 People Vote in First Day of Early Voting in Georgia

I voted 25 days ago; my vote was received 22 days ago.

It has taken the interim three weeks before people living stateside have started getting into the fun — nowhere more so than in Georgia. Over 325,000 people voted in yesterday’s first day of early voting.

You can go here to track early vote in each state. It shows that Georgia’s turnout is promising, but by no means dispositive for Kamala Harris. Almost 30% of people who voted yesterday were Black (about the same percentage as they made up in 2020 exit polls, but still three percent short of eligible Black voters); 54% of people who voted were women (two percent short of their 2020 exit poll rate). According to AJC’s Greg Bluestein, over 45,000 of the people who voted yesterday did not vote in 2020.

68% of the people who’ve voted early in Pennsylvania so far are registered Democrats (though Biden had a much bigger percentage of early voters in 2020 than Trump).

Almost 56% of people who’ve voted in Michigan are women, a few points higher than 2020 exit polls.

But there are cautions for Democrats, too. The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston doesn’t have the same same confidence that the Democrat will win Nevada as he has had in recent years.

Plus, almost no one can track this well, because the last two elections — the first Dobbs election and the COVID presidential — are so unusual.

Perhaps the most interesting stat I’ve seen in the last day is this poll, showing (unsurprisingly) that Kamala Harris is picking up a far greater percentage of the AAPI vote than Biden was, particularly among Indian-American voters.

This is a significant (over 4% of the vote) voting block in NV, GA, PA, MI, and NC, but doesn’t always get tracked in cross tabs. It could be that we’ve spent months talking about whether Harris, who would be the first Black woman President, would match normal Democratic support among Black voters (who tend to come home late), while missing that Indian-American voters could put the first Asian-American President over the top.

As of today, Donald Trump has <3% of his campaign left (20 of 721 days).

As of today, Kamala Harris has over 18% of her campaign left (20 of 107 days).

Every one of those days is a chance to get less likely supporters out.

Update: Bluestein also confirms what other people had jumped the gun to report: Jimmy Carter’s vote for Kamala Harris was dropped in the dropbox at the Sumter County Courthouse.


Searching for Jared Wise

I want to talk about Jared Wise.

Jared Wise is a former counterterrorism FBI Supervisory Special Agent who was arrested for crimes related to January 6 on May 1, 2023; he was indicted on civil disorder, assault, and trespassing charges on May 31, 2023.

In June, Wise moved to suppress a May 5, 2022 AT&T warrant and everything derivative of it, based on the theory that the warrant sought evidence of a conspiracy for which it had not presented probable cause (he is represented by Oregon’s very good FPD office). The same filing moved to suppress a photo obtained in an April 2023 traffic stop that occurred just weeks before a search of his residence. Finally, it aimed to suppress the search of his home based, in part, on staleness grounds. Then last month, Wise supplemented his suppression motion, this time arguing that a tower dump warrant obtained in January 2021 was an unconstitutional geofence warrant under a recent Fifth Circuit decision.

I took the time to read all this because I’ve been tracking the geofence challenges that come out of the January 6 investigation (see here, here, here, here, here, here) and also because I’m fascinated by the former law enforcement types who ended up attacking the Capitol. But between the government’s initial response and the response, submitted yesterday, to his supplement, they provide a fascinating picture of the FBI’s investigation into one of their own.

The government’s response argues this is not about a geofence at all. Rather, the warrant Wise claims was a geofence was instead a tower dump warrant targeting two towers that exclusively serve the interior of the Capitol, basically a search for business records of access to a cell phone tower rather than location data offered up in response to a voluntary Google service.

The filings together present this timeline of the investigation into Wise.

January 22, 2021 tower dump warrant

April 18, 2021 query of tower dump returns

October 2021 final conversation between Wise and tipster

January 10, 2022 public tip regarding Wise

January 26, 2022 interview in which tipster reveals Wise told him he was at the Capitol

May 5, 2022 AT&T warrant for 1752 and 5104 from November 1, 2020 through February 1, 2021: Disclosed Wise made 62 calls and sent 46 text messages on January 6

November 23, 2022 AT&T warrant for 1752 and 5104 from November 3, 2020 through January 31, 2021: Shows Wise still using phone

April 2, 2023 traffic stop on suspicion of altered VIN

April 12 and 13, 2023 warrant, issued in CAED but never executed

April 18 warrant shows Wise still using phone

April 24, 2023 warrant for Wise’s house, car, and person for 1752, 5104, 1512(c)(2), 111, 231, 371, 372: On May 1, FBI seizes:

  • Apple iPhone
  • Apple MacBook Pro
  • Burner LG Phoenix 5 (unopened)
  • Clothing from riot

His phone number was collected in the tower dump, but he attracted no individualized attention until someone narced him out in January 2022, at which point they found the cell phone records that he had been in the building during the 2PM hour on January 6.

At first, the FBI only obtained information to support the two trespassing charges, 1752 and 5104, used with all January 6 suspects. But the affiant of that warrant described that a search might find “help identify co-conspirators or victims,” which is why Wise claimed that this warrant was, “a fishing expedition, hoping to find some evidence of conspiracy when there is no probable cause to believe that one exists.” But, the government noted in response, at that point “the warrant authorized the seizure only of evidence related to the noted offenses.” While the second warrant, dated November 23, 2022, remained focused on the trespassing charges, it noted that,

I know that many persons who came to the Capitol on January 6, 2021, engaged in planning between the time of the November 2020 election and January 6, 2021, and that they communicated with other like-minded individuals about their purpose in coming to the Capitol using their smartphones.

Things got more interesting when — at least as described — a California Highway Patrol officer stopped Wise in April 2023, weeks before a warrant would be issued for his arrest, because the color on his registration did not match the color of the vehicle and, partly because of Wise’s Texas plates, the officer suspected VIN swapping.

The officer decided to make a traffic enforcement stop of the vehicle based on the registration return, which indicated the car’s color was blue, rather than what the officer observed to be grey. The officer knew, based on his training and experience, that there are many vehicles in the state of California that have had their Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) switched in Texas.

Wise undoubtedly believed this was a pretext stop — a stop invented solely to collect information from a suspect. As a former CT officer, he would know how they are used. And so after the officer freed him to leave, Wise got out of his car and started filming the officer.

But after he was told he was free to leave, the defendant became verbally aggressive and irritated with the officer. The defendant insisted he was stopped unlawfully and said there was another reason why the officer made the traffic stop. The officer continued to advise the defendant of the reason for the stop and told him multiple times the stop was over and that he was “free to leave.” As the officer returned to his patrol vehicle, the defendant exited his vehicle, carrying his cell phone, and appeared to be recording the officer and his vehicle. The defendant approached the officer in a slightly aggressive manner and continued to appear upset that he was stopped. The defendant requested the officer’s name and badge number, which the officer then provided. The officer again advised the defendant that the traffic stop was over and he was free to leave. After approximately two minutes, the defendant returned to his vehicle and departed.

That’s when the officer got the picture of Wise’s car, which was used in the affidavit to search Wise’s house, car, and person.

But even if the defendant’s traffic stop was improper, there was no seizure at the time the relevant photograph of the defendant was taken. Indeed, the opposite was true. The traffic stop was conducted, the defendant’s license and registration were checked and returned, and the defendant was told he was free to leave. It was over. See Arizona v. Johnson, 555 U.S. 323, 333 (2009) (“Normally, the stop ends when the police have no further need to control the scene, and inform the driver and passengers they are free to leave.”); United States v. Maynard, 615 F.3d 544, 553 (D.C. Cir. 2010) (holding that the seizure of the defendant was over after the defendant’s license and registration was returned and he was told he was free to leave), aff’d in part sub nom. United States v. Jones, 565 U.S. 400 (2012). But the defendant did not leave. Instead, after being repeatedly told he was free to leave, the defendant—who has, in other filings, opined that he is in a “unique position to admonish law enforcement,” ECF No. 33 at 32 n.8—chose to exit his vehicle, pull out his cell phone, and start recording the officer who had stopped him. It was then that the photograph subsequently used in the search warrant—seen below—was taken. In other words, the defendant voluntarily remained to reprimand a police officer, and now complains when the officer happened to document the scene using a police-issued cruiser camera.

The traffic stop’s inclusion in these suppression motions is, legally, superfluous. The government compellingly argues that they got the probable cause information to search the vehicle via other means, including surveillance of Wise and a different picture of his vehicle.

The April 2023 affidavit recites facts tying the vehicle to the defendant: it identifies the vehicle as being registered to the defendant, see Exhibit D at ¶ 2, and it cites surveillance confirming the vehicle’s presence at the defendant’s residence, see Exhibit D at ¶ 56. But the affidavit never even mentions the April 2, 2024 traffic stop. See generally Exhibit D. Instead, the pertinent photograph appears as part of an attachment identifying the vehicle to be searched. See Exhibit D at Attachment A. That attachment states “[t]he Vehicle is depicted below” and includes two photographs—only one of which is from the traffic stop.

More importantly, nothing was seized from Wise’s car; there are no fruits of a search to suppress.

On the Fourth Amendment question, this dispute appears to arise from confusion about different technologies and therefore different probable cause formulas. Some of the confusion stems from temporal lapses between the execution of a warrant and queries of data obtained from it.

But what really appears to be going on is that a very paranoid former FBI guy, one who called cops “Nazis” on January 6, believes the FBI is or was investigating him more broadly. He believed in real time and still believes (and he may be right) that when a cop stopped him during his trip to California in April 2023, it was a pretext stop designed to collect more information; there are a good number of other January 6 defendants in which such stops were used.

Ultimately, Wise came to believe “they” were out to get him, “they” were out to investigate a larger conspiracy.

In the end, they were! The search of his house included two conspiracy charges, 371 and 372, among the suspect crimes.

But instead, he’s facing two civil disorder charges for his own actions, allegedly attacking cops.


We Are All Don Bacon’s Wife: The Threats Trump Elicits for Personal Gain

I’ve been staring at a screen all morning trying to get my mind around the way that WaPo reported that emergency response personnel in North Carolina had to relocate after threats from an armed militia … without once mentioning lies from Donald Trump or Elon Musk.

Around 1 p.m. Saturday, an official with the U.S. Forest Service, which is supporting recovery efforts after Hurricane Helene along with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, sent an urgent message to numerous federal agencies warning that “FEMA has advised all federal responders Rutherford County, NC, to stand down and evacuate the county immediately. The message stated that National Guard troops ‘had come across x2 trucks of armed militia saying there were out hunting FEMA.’”

“The IMTs [incident management teams] have been notified and are coordinating the evacuation of all assigned personnel in that county,” the email added.

Armed militias didn’t start hunting FEMA personnel in a vacuum. They did so after Trump launched a deliberate campaign of lies about FEMA to serve his own personal needs.

And yet, WaPo simply disappeared Trump’s role in deliberately creating threats so serious they’ve interrupted disaster response.

Donald Trump deliberately made disaster relief harder as part of his campaign. Donald Trump deliberately disrupted the quiet success of Springfield, OH, to serve his campaign. Donald Trump deliberately harmed Aurora, CO, to serve his campaign.

Haitians in Springfield

Meteorologists

FEMA personnel

Public health officials

Former spooks warning about Russia

Disinformation experts

Judges and prosecutors

FBI Agents

Whistleblowers

Anti-corruption ambassadors

Journalists

Blue state governors

Republicans who vote to impeach him or who investigate his riot

Republicans who uphold democracy

Jews

Barack Obama

Ruby Freeman and other election workers

Don Bacon’s wife

His own Vice President

No one is safe from Trump’s threats. Yet a naive belief among Trump supporters can benefit from being part of Trump’s in-group nevertheless makes precisely these threats popular.


JD Vance Asserts that He and Trump Cannot Win Legitimately

There’s a fetish in the traditional media for asking Republicans to disavow crazy things Trump has said or done. This involves Tom Cotton so frequently I’m thinking of naming the phenomenon “Cotton swabs.” Marco Rubio and — since he became Speaker — Mike Johnson are other frequent participants in “Cotton swabbing.”

Perhaps Manu Raju confronts the person in the halls of Congress, perhaps they get invited to a Sunday show. And then the reporter asks them to be outraged about something outrageous that Trump said. Rather than disavowing it, the Republican blurts out some kind of propaganda instead.

Instead of serving as an opportunity to get Republicans to distance themselves from Trump, Republicans exploit the “Cotton swab” to perform obeisance to Trump’s fascism and air propaganda on the mainstream media.

It works every single time.

Yet journalists keep trying it, never varying their method.

Because he’s a smooth and shameless liar, JD Vance is especially adept at exploiting “Cotton swabs.”

In the past week, JD’s “Cotton swabs” have involved questions about whether JD would have certified Joe Biden’s victory. It started when NYT’s Lulu Garcia-Navarro asked JD the question five times.

Last few questions. In the debate, you were asked to clarify if you believe Trump lost the 2020 election. Do you believe he lost the 2020 election? I think that Donald Trump and I have both raised a number of issues with the 2020 election, but we’re focused on the future. I think there’s an obsession here with focusing on 2020. I’m much more worried about what happened after 2020, which is a wide-open border, groceries that are unaffordable. And look, Lulu —

Senator, yes or no. Did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election? Let me ask you a question. Is it OK that big technology companies censored the Hunter Biden laptop story, which independent analysis have said cost Donald Trump millions of votes?

Senator Vance, I’m going to ask you again. Did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election? Did big technology companies censor a story that independent studies have suggested would have cost Trump millions of votes? I think that’s the question.

Senator Vance, I’m going to ask you again. Did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election? And I’ve answered your question with another question. You answer my question and I’ll answer yours.

I have asked this question repeatedly. It is something that is very important for the American people to know. There is no proof, legal or otherwise, that Donald Trump did not lose the 2020 election. But you’re repeating a slogan rather than engaging with what I’m saying, which is that when our own technology firms engage in industrial-scale censorship — by the way, backed up by the federal government — in a way that independent studies suggest affect the votes. I’m worried about Americans who feel like there were problems in 2020. I’m not worried about this slogan that people throw: Well, every court case went this way. I’m talking about something very discrete, a problem of censorship in this country that I do think affected things in 2020. And more importantly, that led to Kamala Harris’s governance, which has screwed this country up in a big way.

Senator, would you have certified the election in 2020? Yes or no? I’ve said that I would have voted against certification because of the concern that I just raised. I think that when you have technology companies —

The answer is no. When you have technology companies censoring Americans at a mass scale in a way that, again, independent studies have suggested affect the vote. I think that it’s right to protest against that, to criticize that, and that’s a totally reasonable thing.

Two other journalists imagined they could do better. After letting JD claim that Trump’s lies about Aurora have some truth to them and insisting that he knows better about disparate assistance in North Carolina, for example, Martha Raddatz again gave JD a chance to claim that the two-day delay of letting people see Hunter Biden’s dick pics swung the 2020 election, and utterly predictably, he took the opportunity to falsely claim that “big tech” had “censored” Hunter Biden’s dick pics and that that was cause enough to declare the 2020 election invalid.

RADDATZ: Senator, we’re just about out of time here. We’re just about out of time here. And I want to end with this — in interview after interview, question after question, and in the debate, you refused to say that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election.

So I’m just going to assume that if I ask you 50 times whether he lost the election, you would not acknowledge that he did. Is that correct?

VANCE: Martha, you’ve — you asked this question, I’ve been asked this question 10 times in the past couple of weeks. Of course, Donald Trump and I believe there were problems in 2020. You haven’t asked about inflation, the —

(CROSSTALK)

RADDATZ: No, I’m sorry, let’s stick to this. I know — I know —

VANCE: The American people want us to talk about how to make their lives better. They don’t want us to —

RADDATZ: Why won’t you say that? Why won’t you say that?

VANCE: Because — because, Martha, I believe that in 2020, when big tech firms were censoring American citizens, that created very serious problems. And by the way, Martha, you’re — you’re a journalist. You represent the American media.

Look at the polling on this. A lot of Americans feel like they were silenced in the run-up to the 2020 election. That is such a bigger issue. That fundamental problem —

(CROSSTALK)

RADDATZ: If you — I just want to —

VANCE: — that me and Donald Trump talking about it, and unfortunately, Martha —

RADDATZ: But I don’t understand why you want to say that you believe it?

(CROSSTALK)

VANCE: She’s — well, won’t just say what, that I think the 2020 election had some problems? I’ve said that repeatedly.

RADDATZ: Did Donald Trump lose? That’s the question, and you know that’s the question.

VANCE: Martha, I’ve said repeatedly I think the election had problems. You want to say rigged. You want to say he won. Use whatever vocabulary term you want — I want to focus on the fact that we had big technology firms censoring our fellow citizens in a way that violated our fundamental rights.

Thankfully, Phil Bump laid out the absurdity behind JD’s answer so I don’t have to. What JD claims was a question about censorship was, in fact, a question about whether, if the hard drive that right wingers claim is a laptop yielded information about China that Congress never managed to find in two years of trying, would it have changed their vote.

It is not the case that tech companies censoring a story — specifically, a New York Post story about an email attributed to a laptop owned by Joe Biden’s son Hunter — cost Trump the election.

This, too, has been explored at length in the past, but it should immediately fail the smell test anyway. The 2020 election was a referendum on Trump, on his presidency and particularly on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. It is ridiculous to suggest that this would have changed had Twitter (as it was then known) not briefly limited the sharing of a New York Post story about how one of Hunter Biden’s business partners sent him an email thanking him for getting him in the room with his father.

The “independent studies” which Vance mentioned presumably refer to one poll conducted on behalf of the right-wing Media Research Center after the election. It presented respondents with a sweeping claim linking Biden to foreign business interests, asking whether awareness of that purported link would have led people to reconsider their votes. A chunk of self-reported Biden voters said they would have.

Setting aside the vast inaccuracies inherent in having people assess what they would have done had the conditions of their decision-making been slightly different, the question didn’t even center on the New York Post story! It was about purported Chinese investors and used the same “Biden family” framing on which the failed Republican impeachment probe depended.

Even ignoring all the other false premises — that the hard drive he claims was a laptop was “censored,” that the right wing poll is accurate — not even the laptop itself, in federal hands, has substantiated illegal conduct beyond a known crack addiction and a gun purchase.

I would add that, in his answer to NYT, JD justifies a claim about what he would have done in 2021 with a partisan poll not taken until two years later. His answer is based on false premiise after false premise and a time machine.

But, as Bump also lays out, this answer is especially ridiculous given the confirmation that Trump’s campaign has done what JD falsely insinuates the Biden campaign did in 2020: Ask a tech company (probably all tech companies) to censor data.

As Ken Klippenstein described when declaring victory, Elon Musk personally made the decision to reverse his permanent suspension when NYT exposed the Trump campaign’s involvement.

Late last night, X (née Twitter) reinstated my account after banning me on September 26 for publishing the J.D. Vance dossier. Elon Musk personally intervened, in the name of “free speech principles,” according to correspondence I’ve seen. Musk had previously declared me “evil” before X suspended me in a move we now know was coordinated with the Trump campaign.

“I’ve asked X Safety to unsuspend him, even though I think he is an awful human being,” Musk told political commentator Brian Krassenstein (and frequent doppelgänger of mine) on October 11. “Important to stay true to free speech principles.”

The reinstatement of my account later that day reversed what X had previously informed me was a “permanent” suspension. The only explanation I’ve received from X came in an email from Twitter Support last night. The email reiterated my alleged violation of X’s policy on posting private information, but also said that the incident may have been a mistake on my part, for which reason I was being un-suspended.

Note, Klippenstein’s account is back. The links to the JD dossier are not. Xitter is still doing what Elon Musk claims is an affront to free speech, suppressing true information.

It is a testament to the voluntary impotence of the press that they don’t make JD pay a price for these ridiculous claims.

After all, if he believes his premise — that the throttling of content based on stolen information is such a severe abuse that it makes the entire election illegitimate — then he has already conceded that he and Trump cannot score a legitimate victory. If it is the case that “big tech” “censorship” can delegitimize an entire election — even ignoring that Trump’s campaign made demands and Biden’s campaign only asked for non-consensual dick pics to be taken down — then he has conceded all legitimacy.

To be sure, I’m not saying this. I think Vance and Trump might still win this, fair and square.

But Vance, based on his comments, has already stated that if Trump wins, Trump’s victory will be illegitimate based on his success at censoring the JD Vance dossier.

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Originally Posted @ https://emptywheel.net/?wordfence_syncAttackData=1726989861.3835