Palin and the Presidential
I’m still synthesizing what to make of last night.
But I have to say I disagree with some of the early conclusions that Palin was a net negative for McCain. Here, for example, is Ambinder’s description of Palin’s role in McCain’s loss:
Sarah Palin. Polling shows that she drove some voters away from Sen. McCain and to Barack Obama. Voters judged her to be too inexperienced to be president. Also, instead of appealing to independents, she became a polarizing figure. ALSO — her persona highlighted McCain’s age and health since she could have taken over. ALSO — her selection killed the "inexperience" argument against Obama.
Clearly, she was devastating in some states–a large number of voters flipped from McCain to Obama based on Palin’s presence on the ticket. But in some states, she made the difference between MCain winning (or losing narrowly) and losing big. The AP reports that nation-wide evangelicals made up a quarter of the turnout–which may well mean that evangelicals turned out in greater numbers, both in relative and absolute numbers, than they did in 2004. And in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana, they made up a greater proportion of the electorate.
In other words, in states with large African-American and evangelical populations (though there is overlap of course), high white evangelical tunrout may have kept McCain in the race. That may have been racism. But I doubt they would have turned out as enthusiastically without Palin as a draw.
Palin clearly was toxic for McCain in places like WI, MN, MI, and PA. But at the same time, Palin’s ability to attract evangelicals at high rates saved this from being a blowout. She certainly hurt him in the mountain West. So at that level, she was a factor in enough states to give Obama a close win.
But she also prevented this race from being a huge blowout.
Oh, and she has saved Don Young’s job and may well have saved Uncle Toobz’ job, for the moment.
I think that had to be the case in Georgia. I don’t see how the McCain won the state with the spread that he did without a large evangelical turnout.
You may be right.
But, I’m banking on a “footnote to history” conclusion.
I think Palin cost McBush Ohio. If Holy Joe had been VP, Obama would have lost the state.But she sure energized the wingnuts here! I think they were hoping McCain wouldn’t make it past Feb.
I’d have liked to see Stevens go down, but watching the rest of the GOOPers squirm as they figure out how to deal with it will provide some amusement. He’s the most senior republican there. And I’d be betting he wins a retrial upon appeal. This will be in the news for awhile.
Boxturtle (Still waiting for the GOPers to start feeding on each other)
Mmmm. Like the way you’re thinking about Toobz. I think you’re right: there’re are a lot of reasons to think he might win a retrial. And then be convicted decisively, presuming the prosecutors can clean up their act.
But he will be thrown out of the Senate even before appeals, right?
I think she was probably a net negative in the Presidential race, albeit a mild one. But I think it’s important to remember that the people who put her on the ticket (Rove et al) didn’t give a shit about John McCain. She was there to boost turnout for the downticket races, and I think that the large evangelical turnout means that she did her job.
I think you make a really, really good point.
And I think we’ll see more of Sarah Palin (who looked stricken last night after McCain’s concession).
al75 – there are evangelicals, and then there are evangelicals. A few years back, I’d become so frustrated with some individuals (really rigid, authoritarian types) that I’d associated ‘all evangelicals’ with ’snake handlers’ because back in the Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson era, that’s how they came across: authoritarians.
However, starting with Katrina, I started to hear the occasional comment, or remark, that surprised me. Over the past three years, some of the evangelicals that I was/am in contact with began speaking with deep disgust about the Falwell wing, Rove, Bush, and what they viewed as absolutely immoral, corrupt governance, a damaged planet, and political smears that are completely at odds with their beliefs.
In my view, Obama connected with that group of voters and that’s hugely important moving forward. I’ve watched a few of these people ‘move mountains’ and they are phenomenally productive and very ethical (their actions match their words 1:1). And those ‘blue evangelicals’ that I reference have no patience with racism, so if the GOP thinks they can still control that voter group, then they are deluded.
If Obama can harness their talent and phenomenal work ethic, they could be an absolutely key, critical component of the Green Revolution, linked to ag production, going forward.
We can’t afford to allow the bogus claims that Palin speaks for ‘all evangelicals’.
She doesn’t.
You may want to google ‘Jim Wallis’ for starters in terms of the national dialogue.
Also, Rod Dreher the Crunchy Con.
Or EJ Dionne at WaPo.
The evangelicals that I know were mixed: some loved Palin, but others viewed her as dangerous and absolutely loathed her. Of the two groups, those who loved Palin have less education, whereas those who viewed her as a poseur have more background working in professional environments so were judging her as a ‘manager’ and also viewed her religious beliefs as lacking depth. From what I gather, in their view, Obama has thought more deeply about the Bible, particularly Isiah and other books related to corrupt kingship and historical periods of economic, spiritual, and social distress.
Palin doesn’t own the evangelical vote.
And none of us should let the MSM claim that she does.
I agree with this. Palin is Catholic. I think who she really connects with are uneducated whites with a sense of entitlement. Sure they’ll give a hat tip to Jesus. What they really want is cover for selfish insanity. Jesus was crazy wasn’t he? Look at the red states running through the deep south: South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and so on and then up through Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska. These are the country music folks. Sunbelt rustics who pay big dollars to their college football coaches. In the end they really are not market conservatives but folks who except for the urban centers in their states have managed to keep a racial homogeneity and a down home laissez faire life-style, farm loans and all. They like Palin cause she’s good looking, country, and an opportunist. Its not religious fundamentalism that holds them together. Obama’s constituency is unique in its diversity. The Atlantic seaboard, New England, the upper mid west, the Rockies and the West Coast. These are really the centers of economic dynamism and trade. Areas that are more engaged in the global scenario.
Florida and Ohio were the margins last targeted by the Rovians and they could not hold them.
I hear Palin was crestfallen when the McCain campaign nixed her idea of giving a concession speech herself.
“Palin is Catholic. “
Wrong-o. She was born Catholic, but is now a fundie.
Bob in HI
Guess that’s what I get for tuning her and information about her out.
As I lament Franken’s probable loss, and the failure to oust evil Michelle Bachmann, I couldn’t agree with you more. Given Obama’s win, down-ticket races should have done better. I don’t know if it was Palin’s pulling in knuckle-dragger voters or Obama’s failure to really promote the good guys that gave us this sorry result. See, in addition, Stevens & Young.
I’m not nearly ready to give up on Franken.
Look at the factors:
[a] notwithstanding this presidential vote outcome and its admirable farm-labor oriented political history from FDR to Water Bush, over the last generation Minnesota has been a state in a great deal of transition – thus its Republican governor
[b] moreover, a Republican governor with national ambitions
[c] in control of the state’s election process
[d] in an election involving an entrenched establishment Republican incumbent
[e] in the further context of something the traditional GOP/Rove GOTRV [get out the RIGHT vote machine loves best: a contest where the numbers are somewhere withing the margin of error,
[f] albeit the last was to a large extent a function of the presence of a third party candidate who previously had run for the Dem nomination,
[g] which third party candidate obviously had some incentive to run an expensive campaign which incentive did not reasonably involve winning, and
[h] all the above in a state in which Rovian politics had so clearly moved down to occupy a big place in the office of the US attorney.
Doesn’t all that quality as a recipe for election shenanigans?
The recount process will take a few weeks. I like Al’s chances.
I note also that 538 Nate has been using the words “peculiar”, “strange” and “inexplicable” [in the context of his otherwise reliable models] in describing the results in Alaska.
“I’m not nearly ready to give up on Franken.
Look at the factors:
[a] notwithstanding this presidential vote outcome and its admirable farm-labor oriented political history from FDR to Water Bush, over the last generation Minnesota has been a state in a great deal of transition – thus its Republican governor
[b] moreover, a Republican governor with national ambitions
[c] in control of the state’s election process
[d] in an election involving an entrenched establishment Republican incumbent
[e] in the further context of something the traditional GOP/Rove GOTRV [get out the RIGHT vote machine loves best: a contest where the numbers are somewhere withing the margin of error,
[f] albeit the last was to a large extent a function of the presence of a third party candidate who previously had run for the Dem nomination,
[g] which third party candidate obviously had some incentive to run an expensive campaign which incentive did not reasonably involve winning, and
[h] all the above in a state in which Rovian politics had so clearly moved down to occupy a big place in the office of the US attorney.
Doesn’t all that quality as a recipe for election shenanigans?
The recount process will take a few weeks. I like Al’s chances.”
Nor am I, but I do know a great deal about the Minnesota Recount Process — at least I know most of the details between 1962-63 and the present.
In fact I moved to Minnesota in 1962, so my first election here took five months to decide, and watching the recount, and a few years later participating in the legislative process of designing the cure was one of the factors that made me fall in love with my adopted State.
For the sake of history, the critical election was Elmer Anderson (R) v. Karl Rolvaag, (DFL). After the Canvas they were less than 200 votes apart, but State Law was unclear as to the process for a recount. So after exhaustive appeals to every court they could think of, the parties finally settled down to recount the vote. Jan 1 came along when the Elmer Anderson first term ended, and they just left him in the Governor’s office and set up a second office for Rolvaag in the Capitol Basement. So we had two Governor’s for a couple of months. No Harm. They were told to consult, though they didn’t do much of that. But the counting went on and on. Finally it came down to Rolvaag being about 70 votes ahead with two classes of ballots where voter intent wasn’t totally clear — the State Supreme court gave Rolvaag the first class, denied the second, and Elmer Anderson moved out of the Governor’s office, and Karl Rolvaag moved upstairs. While no one is totally sure of the actual number, most Historians use 123 as the victory margin, after five months of ballot counting and court appealing.
The upshot was a decision in Minnesota to write a clear Recount Law — and this was done in 1965 after consultations, and it has been revised a couple of times — when we totally reworked our elections systems in the late 1980’s, and could take advantage of several court reviews.
Here is how the thing works:
This week — County Canvas Boards meet and establish their preliminary but official return numbers. These may shift between now and Friday as election boards check all their math and all. Way beyond Franken’s race there are many counts to be made. They have to account for every ballot in every precinct that was marked. These have to match exactly the number of sign in’s, plus early and absentee, and electronic ballots. (Outside the US, you can vote by E-Mail and/or fax). Before you start re-counting you need to account for every ballot issued. Our process allows for that and also finding any and all errors. The count of Franken v Coleman lost Coleman 50 votes today as that process went forward– down from 480 to 430 between morning and last afternoon. It will keep changing till Friday when it all must be justified. Voters per precinct must equal ballots. Preliminary machine votes are then sent, along with the justified number of ballots and voters to the State Canvas Board.
The Job of the State Canvas Board in all this is to observe that the margin between Franken and Coleman is less than .05, and thus a State Wide Recount is Mandated. State Canvas Board meets a week from Friday. .05 of 2.9 million ballots is something like 16 thousand, so, yep, we will have a recount, state wide, and probably all by hand.
Early morning November 5 orders went out to sequester all ballots. Counties have to post guard and all — ballots must be in secure facilities. Done.
Each county election board then sets up a recount facility. There will be massive need for Party People to volunteer to be counters, as all counters are teams of two representing opposite parties. All ballots are paper, with marked ovals — so the first step precinct by precinct (4200 roughly precincts in the state) is to sort the Senate marks into piles, Franken, Coleman, Barkley, write in, (maybe there was another third party), no mark, or questionable mark. The Volunteers then individually count each of the piles, recording their count on a talley slip, these go to the clerk, and if they agree, then a precinct is “agreed to” — unless of course one or several of the ballots in the questionable mark pile seems to indicate a voter intent — in which case the County Canvas Board rules, and that can be appealed to the State Canvas Board, and if necessary to the State Supreme Court.
The Public, and Party Representatives as well as lawyers for an interested party can observe the whole process. They cannot, however, protest anything except in writing to the supervising canvas board. Watching a recount is not exactly high drama, but the whole thing will be video taped.
Coleman is asking Franken to “give up” on the recount. Sorry Norm, the election process isn’t finished till the Secretary of State issues a certificate of election, and that won’t happen till the recount is complete, because the margin is within the Mandate Requirements. It isn’t Franken’s right to a recount — or your right to propaganda about the process — it is Minnesota Voter’s right to the finest canvas of the vote humanly possible. That story of the Anderson-Rolvaag recount should inspire you. Eventually we did discover who was the right Governor. We moved the right one out of the temp offices in the basement up to the formal suite. Yea — it took till March, but whatever.
Are you talking popular vote or electoral college? I’ll agree she boosted McCain’s popular vote total and she kept him close in Virginia and North Carolina, but the only states she arguably helped him win were Georgia and Missouri. She made cost him any chance at the midwest. The day after the pick, I marked Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota blue.
She helped boost his vote totals in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Alabama, and Mississipi. What help is that for a Republican?
Popular, obviously. And that does matter, because it not only gives pundits something to hang onto with their obtuse claims that we’re a center right nation. But the closeness of VA and NC are really important bc they prevent OBama from arguing a truly national mandate. Those races closed by over 5–perhaps as much as 10–points in a week. That’s a big difference in the way people will perceive this race.
And as how to this “helps” the GOP? It depends on what you mean by “help.” But I think it does signal that the racist attacks on Obama have enough popularity that they will continue unabated, which will be a problem for OBama’s efforts to govern, and mean we’re going to have to continue calling bull on the Ashley Todd’s of the world.
True. The local wing nut talk show host (and I live in Boston!) is gearing up his audience for the long haul. He can call Obama a racist but don’t call him one. There are listeners that tell him to give Obama a chance, about 10 percent I would guess. I don’t listen to the show. I just respond to his blog posts, pushing, prodding and challenging.
A lot of fear and loathing was instigated in the campaign. I wish I had the clip of McCain last night asking his supporters to give their support to Obama. I lost it on the dvr when I flipped channels. I want to post links to it on YouTube. Anybody have it?
Yeah, the few times I listen to AM talk radio, I always hear about “blacks are racists because more than 90% of them support Obama.” I am sick of this and have heard the number on TV without any analysis. It is true tha African-Americans support for Obama is upwards of 90%, but no one mentions that AA support for Kerry was 88% and AA support for Gore was 90%! Were they being racists then? It seems to me tha AA may vote for the candidate/party that they believe will help them, not based on race.
Have you looked at the results?
OT: I haven’t heard anyone say this yet, but didn’t Barack Obama get more votes than any other Presidential candidate in US history? I seem to remember hearing that a lot about Bush in 2004, and Obama has gotten more votes than Bush did.
Frank:
Yes, Obama blew by GWB’s numbers of four years ago.
Newsweek is now reporting that she spent MORE than $150,000 on clothes for herself and her family.
OT, if Rahm becomes chief-of-staff of O, Blagojovich would get to appoint two people–one for O’s seat and one for Rahm’s. Would O really give Blago that much power? Can he trust him to appoint the “right” people? I’m just getting ready to wipe egg out of my eye. . .
Isn’t the House replacement a special election (as with Bill Foster, who won in a special)?
Classic example of making a deal with the devil. McShame coveted the right-wingnut vote and sold his soul to get it. He gained his coveted wingnuts, but it cost him dearly in the end.
Palin was a net positive with wingnuts as they saw her as one of them. She was a disaster among the rest of the population because her selection was the clearest case of McShames lack of judgment (better than any case Obama tried to build against McCain).
You have that pegged DOC. I enjoy your concise analysis.
As my once Republican husband concluded, “Her hate mongering and branding the Republican party as the party of hate, pettiness and shallow thinking, has made it clear for him to never consider the Republican party again.
She may have brought out the Evangelicals on the issue of life. But she lost the larger independent voter block on hate, pettiness and shallow thinking which translates to an unpresidential, unhinged leadership style.
As for Ambinder’s logic on the “experience” issue and Palin’s role… Obama-Biden serve a larger constituency as Senators than McCain-Palin serve as Senator+Governor. Try about 1.5 million more. And, Obama had the third largest city in the US as part of that constituency. The experience argument played no part honestly.
sorry for the lack of knowledge who is uncle toobz?
You must be new around here. Welcome! Uncle Toobz is Ted Stevens (R-Convicted-AK).
Thank you
I wonder about the comparison of work ethic, between Barack Obama and the erstwhile AK2012 governor. I looked at some Obama’s early speeches in the US Senate, and caught only a few of his remarks in the next few years, plus some academic work of his. On the Palin docket, I recall West Coast hype about her plans to offer the former governor’s plane on Ebay, a saga which resulted in no sale at first try, but later she evidently sold it to xxxx. The issue which interested me about work, for its salubrious effects, is that there are several ways to view the accumulated principles of private morality too easily painted with the broad brush of evangelicalist worldview, which would be quite different from the syntax of the adjective being evangelist in that community of interest. It seems, if Barack Obama and his hires prove to be a hard working administration with curative effects, the principle divergences with soNamed evangelicals will be minimum with respect to the drive to accomplish beneficial labor. There are ways to regard ethical constructs without preservation of their respective accreted subjective theologies which, under our system of government, remain partitioned into the far side of the establishmentClause maxim. A reconfigured Scotus will improve the atmosphere of separation, as well.
Good analysis.
Shorter version: the GOP is addicted to the religious right. It’s poisoning them, driving friends away, cementing extremist policies into the party dogma.
But the party is so dependent on evangelicals that they can’t back away. This was why McCain couldn’t pick Ridge or Holy Joe — the former of whom might have been a winning partner IMO. But no pro-choice socially moderate candidate can reach national office in today’s GOP. Ditto racism and anti-immigrant rage.
There’s no sign of this addiction reaching recovery any time soon.
The question isn’t whether the GOP has a future. It doesn’t, for the moment. The question is whether Obama can lead.
I agree with EW–Palin’s appeal to the snake handling wing of the GOP masked the real underlying Obama landslide and repudiation of Bush.
If Obama has real discovered–and other Dems can reproduce–the formula for breaking the GOP coalition of the “no tax” wing, the corporate wing, and the snake handling wing, the GOP could lock itself into minority status for a long time.
In California, the GOP has purged the moderates and outside of Arnold, who had strong positive personal name recognition, they have been a flop at the state wide level for a decade, because only a wingnut can make it through the primaries.
But what, then, is the explanation for the success of insane Prop. 8? Are there folks who vote Democratic but are homophobic as well?
Are there folks who vote Democratic but are homophobic as well?
Yes.
The No on 8 campaign did not favors for itself with the Mormon/Nazis ad it ran just before the election. If those were Jews, or Muslims, how would that have played? Using religious intolerance to sell sex preference tolerance was ….Palin-esque.
Obviously yes. My gay friends hate me for saying this, but I advise them to back off on gay marriage for a few years. My reasoning is twofold:
1) The Federal Constitution protects it and as soon as it gets in front of the Supremes, they’ll say so.
2) There is enough support out there TODAY to pass a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Heck, even CA can pass a measure that’s basically institutionalized discrimination against gays!
But if we wait until the oldest generation passes on, the demographics are strongly on our side.
I hate suggesting that people wait for their rights. But I fear if they DON’T, they’ll lose them for a century.
Boxturtle (Does this mean I’m kicked off FDL?)
no, but you gotta give your ACLU card back
and the birkinstocks …
You can take my Birkinstocks when you pry them from my cold dead fingers!
Boxturtle (The KoolAid the local GOP was serving outside the polls was good, I can still taste it!)
yeah, well, okay then
(psssst, those things are supposed to go on your feet, btw)
(wink)
I’ve made the same suggestion to friends and I get my head bitten off. But I totally agree. Timing is everything when it comes to winning rights… historically.
homophobic, hedging their bets, just plain confused, and kinda overwhelmed by volume
take your pick
I also suspect that the catholic roots in the Latino population of Cali are often overlooked
the struggles for equality have always been long and painful (slavery, sufferage, civil rights)
imagine how an anti-slavery supporter absorbed the Dred Scott decision
setbacks happen
and sometimes those setbacks are the catalyst for major progress
we ain’t at our destination yet, but we’re back on the road to a More Perfect union
reality might have a liberal bias, but it still sucks …
old Internet joke:
The Truth shall set you free. But, first it gives you a headache.
Just as one specific, when we had an anti-gay proposal in 2004 (it also stripped gay couples of domestic partner benefits), it had a lot of support from certain black preachers. The campaign to defeat the proposal tried very hard to use some pressure to get those preachers to remain silent, but not entirely successfully.
Et tu, Palin?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrUN8oldj9o
(This is hilarious)
That is pretty darn funny.
I think that she prevented it being a 30% blowout, by getting the thumpers to come out, who may have decided to skip it, despite McCranky’s primary-to-general-election’s-cusp “conversion”. But she alienated the independants, she alienated most of the PUMAs (except the froth-at-the-mouth types) and she alienated all of the feminist leaning people. The only people who thought that Palin was a “feminist” were the Repubs who think that’s a code word for “she’s a true believer-but-we’ll fake out the democrats and steal some votes this way”. I think that she firmed up his base, and that’s all I expect. Anybody got any actual information to back this stuff up with?
Rocks don’t get smarter with Age.
The rest of US will move forward…while she gets Left Behind.
And, the Tabloids will feast on her for years, too.
Whatever else she may have done for McCain and the Goopers, imvho, she cost him, and them, the Election.
It was Over the day he picked her…
That Newsweek article was not just juicy, for the Palin stuff, but fishy:
Why is the fact that McCain’s computers were supposedly hacked so incidental to the story?
When do we get to see the rest of the Couric interview?
OT, but who will replace Waxy?
Any update-status on the Fitzy-Cheney interviews?
http://www.rollcall.com/news/29885-1.html
I’m not as upbeat as most. Very happy for Obama’s win, the country’s and my long nightmare is over, but I wouldn’t count Rove and the Republicans out by a long shot. Greenwald wanted the vote to be a repudiation of the Bush policies and the election may seem to be that but the totals aren’t what I would call a shot to the heart of free market conservatism. The numbers are against that argument – 60% of CA voted for Obama but Prop 8 went down 52-48; Ted Stevens and Don Young get reelected; Wulsin was knocked out by a 3rd party (read another Republican) and Schmidt is back; Bachman reelected; Burner, Franken, South Florida House races went against us. The vote total wasn’t a blow out, if more evangelicals voted because of Palin then the Dems GOTV efforts weren’t A+, maybe a B. After all the numbers are in and published in a few weeks the political wonks (EW, Kos…) may have a better take than the one I’m laying out. Rove and his style of campaigning has not been defeated just taken down a notch, he’s smart and will adjust his future game plan and in 2 years will stage a comeback with attacks on the first African-American Administration. Obama and the Democrats should take care not to bask too long in the applause, give his campaign gurus a month off to unwind and find a room for them at the DNC or WH right away. The tragedy that was Bush/Cheney will soon be gone from the Executive Offices but they leave a huge mess behind for the Dems to clean up. The economy will not get better, possibly worse, the stupid, though obviously centrist, electorate will forget how the country got this way and Rove Republicans will do their best to make it Obama’s fault, just watch.
You’re wrong about Obama’s turnout not being an A+. He got people out who–”experience” says–will not come out, period.
THe fundies came out, but they consistently do.
Thank you, der1. This is actually what I’ve been feeling — down to the same races I’m bummed about.
My husband was on my case last night for not dancing in the streets [a little hard to do when you live in rural Maui], but I certainly saw the “half empty” portion of the glass. Or, as my son likes to say, “Mom it’s half full, but it’s full of POISON.”
ew – you’ve done so much to help get the true word out on Sarah Palin. A lot of work left to do, though…
ps – don’t count Mark Begich out yet. Still almost 50,000 ballots left to count.
ET,
Is there any talk around there of vote flipping? Nate nailed virtually the entire election, with only a tiny miss on Indiana, with the huge exceptions of Stevens and Young. Nate had Begich at a 100% win likelihood and predicted a double digit percentage win. Did people lie to the pollsters or were votes lost or flipped?
Excellent questions. I hope someone investigates.
Bob in HI
Palin = short term gain AND long term loss
Princess pandora moght have keep mcstain close, but the “Real Americans” rethoric is diametrically opposed to the wave that Obama is riding
check Obama’s 2004 Dem Convention speach
there ain’t TWO Americas
and in the next four years, us pinko commie liberals get to take the label “Fake Americans” as a BADGE OF HONOR
princess pandora and her real american supporters are marching into the past
when I was born, a black man could not vote in this nation
things CHANGE
and princess pandora is on the wrong side on the change
say what you want, princess pandora is DEAD
the reports about the shopping spree are coming out
turns out, princess pandora was involved in the disaster that is now unfolding in the repuglitard party
it ain’t just the donor’s $150,000
now they’re talkin about princess pandora pressuring mcstain staffers to buy princess pandora clothes on their own personal credit cards. Now the staffers want reimbursement
and princess pandora wasn’t the only palin to benefit from the looting spree
you can take a hick outta the sticks, but you can’t take the sticks outta the hick
huffpo has the goods
some musings–There’s a lot of video of palin that could be used against her if she tries to run (rear her head)in the future…
There was talk last night of appointing Jesse Jackson, Jr. to replace Obama in the Senate…
If palin has spent the last 44 years learning nothing about the nation or the world, it seems a good bet she won’t (can’t) start now… She’s too far behind to catch-up.
Doesn’t matter. She passes the conservative litmus tests and the handlers have four years to groom her. McCain spouted nothing but talking points all year, yet they considered him to be well informed. And he is not nearly as photogenic as she is. Expect her to be back.
I’m betting she runs for Stevens seat, when it comes available. I’d have figured that she’d surely lose last week, but AK voters sure don’t seem to be holding a felony conviction against Ted and they likely won’t hold it against her.
Boxturtle (If a sitting Senator is on probation, is the Sergent At Arms of the Senate his P.O.?)
mcstain had a 26 year track record, and he had to face two years of intense scrutiny
princess pandora ain’t qualified for that two year journey, and she DOESN’T have a good track record (Wasilla, 20 million debt, Alaska, only oil kept them outta a palin dug fiscal hole)
princess pandora will probably wanna try to run, and some of the repuglitard money boys might see an Obama second term as pre-ordained, and use princess pandora as a sacrificial lamb in 2012
whatever princess pandora decides to do, it can only be good for Democrats (an especially us dfh liberal commie pinkos)
personally, I’m doublin down on those popcorn stocks
people are gonna wanna watch, people like popcorn …
POPCORN, GIT YER POPCORN HERE, POPCORN
All I know is that someone I know & respect who has been a McCain fan for years & is a staunch Republican voted for Obama yesterday because of Palin. I’m sure he wasn’t alone.
Yup, the numbers are staggering. BUt they were relatively much smaller in states with large evangelical populations.
OT – Freep, I agree with you that an OU-UF National Championship would be a good match. I also agree with bmaz that a one-loss USC would have a legit claim, too.
The Gators have a lot of work to do to get there, though, including beating Alabama in the SEC Championship (they’ve had our number for years,) and not to mention winning-out the rest of our schedule!
But, I like the way UF is playing right now…
does UF fold after thanksgiving too ???
or are you just lookin for an easy opponent in the title game
we’re on to you guys …
kinda painful to admit that Stoops has become a bowl game patsy, but that’s the way it is …
OT: Lots of sturm and drang regarding Rahm as COS.
Not from me. As far as I’m concerned, he can have whoever he wants. He’s earned it.
Rahm? Earned it? Doing what, exactly?
Helping ram bad FISA legislation through the House?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Bob in HI
Not Rahm, Barack. Barack Obama has earned the right to pick whoever he wants. At this point, I am willing to trust his judgement, it has proven to be solid. Can’t we wait a bit before the sniping starts?
OT –
Boxturtle (Will Obama protect Holy Joe?)
Argh! here’s the link: http://www.newsweek.com/id/167647
Boxturtle (Evil blog software does as it pleases, it seems)
so who’s on the menu in 2010 ???
(back to the salt mines)
O/T, and maybe a bit silly, but is it true that Cheney made Google pixelate his home at the Naval Observatory on Google Maps?
The Secret service actually requested that. There are other areas that get that treatment as well.
Boxturtle (As to if Cheney requested the Secret Service to do that, I decline to speculate)
If I got a nickel for every time I’ve heard that. Heh.
I was wrong about GA, only .6% more people voted in 2008 than 2004 so Palin really didn’t have too much to motivate anyone I don’t think.
http://www.ajc.com/metro/conte…..rnout.html
I felt MOTIVATED by princess pandora
jes not in the way she was supposed to motivate me …
From Marshall last night http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
& Greg Palast this am on Hartmann….about 500,000 early voted ballots (mostly democratic) are missing…
nate said in an interview that the mccain offices were completely empty before palin got on board, they had no volunteers no contrtibutors, nothing
now, any vice presidential pick would have done something but very few would have done as much to get volunteers pulling for mccain
I hate to say it but I believe she kept his campaign alive
here’s a thought everybody should consider
the Democratic Party of today ain’t your grandpa’s Democratic Party
what’s different ???
we ain’t beholden to a bunch of “Old Bull” southern Democratic Senators
President Obama doesn’t have to accommodate the racist southern bloc that Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, and Clinton had to deal with
off topic, has anyone heard anything about the funeral for Obama’a grandmother?
68 – I just read that BO is planning that this week for later in December. At Toot’s request it will be a small, private ceremony.
One thing that Palin did was kill Bob Barr’s chances of draining votes from McCain. Barr only managed 28K votes in Georgia while the Lib. Senate candidate pulled in 126K.
Good point. I had hopes for Georgia.
Bob in HI
Bmaz, OT… what the fuck is this poor judge agonizing over?
Clemens is a lying sack of shit, how could one defame his character… his
character is shit to begin with?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne…..;type=lgns
Um, BSL, you heard anything about any of that supposedly “conclusive DNA” BS panning out? I haven’t. Quite frankly it had less than zero evidentiary credibility anyway. Nothing has moved my opinion from where it has always been on this case. Clemens is a big stupid dope, but MacNamee is a disturbed and tainted individual with far less credibility than Clemens. This whole case was ginned up because of George Mitchell and when he got way sideways, he had his friends in Congress engage in despicable parallel proceedings to try to bail his sorry case out. I had a certain admiration for Mitchell before this crap. MacNamee, by all rights, ought to be being prosected for both perjury and the underlying offenses he was first investigated and in trouble for.
MacNamee voted for Obama, Clemens cast his ballot for McCain…
That’s better than DNA evidence…
Agreed?
Unless he pays me to argue otherwise…..
Thanks ew.
digg
on topic but off point, i enjoyed the pundits last night as they talked about the “white evangelicals.” for some reason, i heard “whitey vangelicas.”
and then, eventually, i stopped hearing the “vangelicals” part.
so bill schneider would talk about how mcmuffin had to appeal to “whitey.”
i am so bad.
On the main theme, who OTHER than Palin at this point can claim to speak for the Repod party’s future?
Plus, the learning curve for a Republican leader does not necessarily involve orienting oneself to reality.
I doubt she’s dumber than Reagan, and she certainly appears at least as ruthlessly committed to take cues from the far right. Reagan started showing up on the national scene from 1966 – when he was aged 55.
Finally, check out the Winger sites to see who they blame for blowing the presidential election: it looks to me like a dead heat among Acorn fraud, Obama fund-raising cheating, bad timing for the economic crisis, and a shitty top of the ticket. No one there is taking “McCain’s selection” of her as a factor; quite the opposite IMO.
None of which I see as necessarily bad for Obama and the progressive parts of the Congress – particularly when both are called on to react to the coming horrors of Bush’s prerogative as outgoing president.
They’re making some good points there. Consider if the previous four or eight years hadn’t been bad, just sorta neutral.
Divide America along the Mississippi.
Divide the East by North & South.
Divide the West by Mississippi to Nevada v. Coastal.
Here’s how they went:
Dems took the East North.
Dems took the West Coastal.
Repubs didn’t get all of the East South.
Repubs didn’t get all of the West Plains & Rocky Mtn.!
So, Dems took Dem areas and a few states in Red areas. Why?
Look at the candidates:
Dems are both East Northerners, so the NE was solid and had to be.
Somehow they also got some West Rocky Mtn/Plains states!
Repubs are both Westerners, but Palin was a East Southerner at heart.
Why did neither hold their region completely?
The Repub top of ticket was weak for his region/ideological-group!
But, Palin was out of place and didn’t hold all the East South either!
With a more neutral environment they could’ve beaten a weaker Dem ticket.
With this Dem ticket an even stronger Repub ticket would still have trouble.
I think both knew the Coastal West would go Dem. That’s a huge advantage Dems have right now. During the primary race Rudy Guiliani tried to get the California vote apportioned to make it possible to split up that Coastal vote. Without that a lot of Repubs probably figured it was hopeless since they could see some other states had become vulnerable.
Both knew the East North (Indiana being close) would go Dem and the East South (Florida being close) would go Repub.
West Virginia should be an East North Dem state, but might have some hanky panky going on.
Where the fight occurred was almost entirely on Repub territory: a few East South states (Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Virginia [is it Northern now?]) and in West Rocky Mtn/Plains states (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Montana and even Arizona). Obama’s advantage in money let him stretch the fight and that added to McCain-Palin’s difficulty.
Given this situation I think McCain was right that it was all uphill and they ended up doing pretty well with even their very awkward campaign. He held back the flood about as well as he & Palin could. I think they upheld their banner strongly — meanly, nastily, awfully, but strongly.
The trend out west is Arizona and Montana going Dem, so it won’t get easier for Repubs out there for some years. They’ll have to go back to their geographic base and fight for Florida and North Carolina and Missouri while trying to find more inroads to the West or other Mid-western states. I don’t see it happening quickly.
Tons of voters may be going Dem for a long time and the Repub party is sort of split up, so this might give Dems a secure advantage for some years unless they just don’t have good candidates.
Haley barbour
OT Question: Did I miss that Randy Schuenemann got fired last week, or did they manage to keep that secret?
Sorta. (wink)
And, when you think about it, what was going on there is a bit frightening.
Oh holy christ. Bush just named Lee Greenwood – I shit you not – to the National Council of the Arts.
Yes, THAT Lee Greenwood.
You. Are. Fucking. Kidding. Me.
I swear I just heard that on Rachel Maddow. He gets a 6-year term.
This is a fascinating map, you can zoom in on a state and see how the counties won. Take a look at Georgia: we win Atlanta, and Athens, which you would expect, and Savannah, which seems less likely. But we also won Columbus, home of Fort Benning, by nearly 20%.
Every county in Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Vermont went blue, and so did all but one county in Maine. The only totally red state is Oklahoma.
Ooops, Link to map.
If it really did come down to the vp pick, then maybe McCain should’ve lobbied for 2-3 vp sidekicks to cover all his deficits.
The fact of the matter is the party had become so toxic, only the most vain candidate willing to run in 2008 would rise to the top. Vanity is unfortunately not characteristic with wide appeal among the body politic.
McCain (or perhaps the advisers to whom he entrusted his campaign, soul, etc.) made a mistake with the Palin gamble. While the evangelicals are, at best, lukewarm in regards to McCain, his fear-mongering tactics would have given him a strong turnout among social conservatives, i.e. people who voted not so much for McCain, but against Obama. Picking Palin might have excited the conservative base, but that base, as well as Palin’s willingness to wallow in the more troglodytic aspects of its viewpoints, is unsavory to centrists and moderates, and pushed them toward Obama. The GOP has yet to process that, in the post-Bush world, a significant number of Americans are unimpressed with, or even frightened by, Cracker-Barrel-waitress folksiness and young-Earth ideology in a person that might have to assume the mantle of the presidency.
I personally hope it takes them at least another four years to realize that they have to appeal to the middle in order to compete…Palin is this liberal’s dream opponent in 2012.