Michi-Gone (But Not Forgotten)
There’s still something funky about the way McCain pulled out of MI. As I noted yesterday, Obama was focused enough on MI to schedule a Detroit rally (Sunday, with both Obamas and both Bidens), two Michelle events (yesterday), and Grand Rapids and Lansing rallies yesterday. And, as Nate points out, MI wasn’t even the best state to pull out of based on return on investment.
That is, Michigan actually appeared to be a slightly better place to spend their marginal resources than states like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin; a dollar there goes about 2.4 times as far as one spent in an average state.
Then there’s how quickly they made the decision (I know, I know, this is McCain, but still). The MI GOP had emergency meetings last night to devise a new strategy (and, apparently, Kissinger did a McCain campaign stop today).
Michigan Republicans kicked into overdrive last night. We had a series of conference calls and meetings with activists and donors, coming up with our own plan on how to implement a "Michigan strategy" for McCain and the rest of our ticket.
Which is going to be particularly tough for them, given that they were nearly broke in May and were surely counting on Cindy’s McCain’s money to support campaign events this year.
And as some have noted, Sarah Palin just found out this morning.
"Well, that’s not a surprise because, you know, the polls are showing we’re not doing as well there evidently as we would like to," Palin said. "But I read that this morning also. I fired off a quick email and said `Oh, come on, you know, do we have to? Do we have to call it there?’"
And perhaps weirdest of all, there’s the overall damage this decision will do to McCain’s campaign (Jack Lessenberry is MI’s favorite political curmudgeon).
For John McCain, pulling most of his campaign operations out of Michigan makes a certain kind of sense. On paper, anyway. But then, the Vietnam War made a certain amount of sense on paper.
Just not in reality. My guess is that the McCain camp’s decision will turn out to have been an appalling blunder for reasons that stretch far beyond Michigan. First of all, let’s look at what happened.
[snip]
My guess is that the stigma of having publicly conceded a major state a month before the election will far outweigh the advantage of having an extra staffer or two in Florida or being able to show a few ads in Maine or Ohio.
Closer to home, this will have a devastating effect on Republican morale. Democrats will now have a far greater chance of knocking off the two vulnerable GOP Congressmen, Joe Knollenberg in Oakland County and Tim Walberg in south central Michigan.
(As a reminder, both Knollenberg’s and Walberg’s opponents–Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, respectively, are Blue America candidates.)
So something just doesn’t make sense. Granted, the problem may lie more with my treatment of the McCain campaign as an organization that makes sound tactical decisions; this pull-out might just be one of McCain’s increasingly frequent panicked moves. That is almost certainly the most logical explanation: the absolutely abysmal management of the McCain campaign.
But I wonder whether there’s not something more.
Part of me wonders whether there’s a connection between McCain’s hasty withdrawal and another move yesterday, that of James Carabelli’s defamation suit against the Michigan Messenger for their report that the MI GOP was going to use foreclosure lists to challenge voters’ right to vote in November (TPM reported on this today, but I first learned of it at about the same time I learned of the pull-out yesterday).
Because that suit is just as weird, in some ways, as the withdrawal.
As of a while ago, the Center for Independent Media and Michigan Messenger still hadn’t gotten a copy of the complaint. And never–not since the MM first published the foreclosure story on September 10, has Carabelli asked for a retraction. And, as TPM reports, Carabelli won’t reveal who’s paying his legal fees.
Matt Davis, the attorney for the plaintiff in the defamation suit filed against the Michigan Messenger was quite talkative about the particulars of the suit when TPMmuckraker called him this morning, but declined to say who was paying his legal fees.
"I don’t comment on my clients," Davis said in answer to inquiries about who was employing him, but directed us to the spokesman for the Michigan Republican party for further questions.
By all appearances (particularly given the confidence MM has in their story), this is a SLAPP suit designed to either cow MM, or the larger CIM organization, which has outlets in key swing states: Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Washington (and employes Spencer Ackerman in their DC Independent site). But Matt Davis doesn’t want you to know who’s behind his SLAPP suit.
Honestly, I don’t know that there’s a connection. But there’s something weird in both events–and both happened to occur at the same time.
Sorta makes you wonder if they are worried about the appearance of some sort of coordination issue. I don’t know anything about campaign finance law though.
Bingo*
[*Bearer not entitled to claim prize beyond indication of agreement. I’m on a precision-in-language diet.]
Surfing more than ever before along both shores of the blogosphere, I am impressed with what strikes me as a complementary pattern, peculiar to this election cycle:
In posts on the 20 or so progressive sites I check in on more-or-less regularly, and to a greater degree in reader comments, there appears to be a markedly higher frequency of the word “fear” being invoked in reference to what’s being felt by the Right.
In posts on the 10 or so Winger sites I check in on [with similar regularity, but greater efficiency; I attribute that to the dramatic contrast in respective demands on the intellect], over the past two weeks in particular I’ve seen that same word invoked [a] less in reference to their enemies, the Moonbats on the Loony Left, and [b] more in reference to their own feelings.
Also, I think I’m seeing a heightened tone of frustration, certainly, and of anger, with the latter trending towards increasingly detailed violent images, along with more assertions of intent to bring violence to bear.
[It may say speak to the breadth of support for Obama that the more generalized anger seems to directed less at the traditional Anti-Christ Soros, and more at a veritable host of evil enemy identities, most prominent among them being Kos and Olbermann [and, in rare sign of national consensus that might bear some hope for our species, Chris Matthews].
[I expect Rachel Maddows to be added to those most conceded as deserving recognition on the Wing’s enemies list, but assuming no improvement in the quality of neuronal firing on that side, probably long after the election].
Professor Bob Altemayer of the University of Manitoba, John Dean, who credits Altemayer’s findings as enlightening him on this, and more recently Rick Pealstein in Nixonland, have all written on the role paranoia plays in various ’schools’ of American conservative political belief systems, and the movements that have captured those and in turn animated the Republican party to edge past, successively, decency, tolerance, humanity, reality and sanity, to the full range of Axis II personality disorders to which it must pander in order to have any hope of keeping the White House.
My own feeling is that Gerald Ford, who after all came to the vice presidency directly from the 92nd Congress and so knew better, and to some extent the 93rd Congress as a body, failed to recognize the need to confront the trend by bringing the full force of law to bear on Nixon.
Ford didn’t end what he called “the long national nightmare” by pardoning Nixon. In effect he pardoned the sickness that held Nixon in its thrall, the one that allowed Nixon to succeed in politics to the point where it could take him down, and that has allowed Cheney to succeed in politics and “business” beyond the point I think Nixon would have imagined.
In the 8 presidential terms since then, 5 have been under Republicans whose election depended critically on paranoia, and the other 3 were under 2 southern Democrats, the first of whom recognized the problem but not the full extent of the danger, and being taken down by it, and the second of whom recognized the problem but figured he could work around it, and ended up being damaged and almost being taken down by it.
We may end up watching Obama doing something along the same lines. But Wingers, being by nature paranoid, are betraying their uncertainty in that regard.
Paranoids see bargains as pledges to be broken, and trust as something to be betrayed.
What animates the behavior of paranoids in any relationship is the unknowable answer to one big ticking question, from which all other questions flow:
Will he succeed in betraying you before you can betray him?
At what point will he have extracted the most he can from the relationship, and from the other party, without risking making himself vulnerable to being “stabbed in the back”?
Will he be able to recognize that momement when it arrives?
Thus paranoids simply don’t enter bargains with any sincere intention to keep to either the spirit or the letter of them. They see the implied trust in bargained relationships as contemptible, with the only practical benefit being that they might by feigning commitment be presented with an Achilles heels they can employ to get close enough to inflict more damage when they choose to betray the spirit. They see the letter of bargains as not applying to them, for being no more worthy of respect then terms extorted from a hostage; and otherwise as roadblocks and obstructions to throw in front of you if and when you protest the breaking.
I think all things has much to do with what appears to be a determination to go down with Captain McCain: identification with the grievances of a hostage. It’s very easy for them to identify with his sense of entitlement.
Paranoids regard civility as a tolerable degree of clear hypocrisy in an ally, but as a sure sign of inherent weakness in an enemy. Whether another person is an ally or enemy depends critically on how blatant is the hypocrisy. Success and survival depend on the ability to tell the difference – particularly since one’s ally is no more than one’s inevitable future enemy.
In all these observations, IANA psychiatrist or psychologist, except to the extent the practice of law requires it. I would be happy to bow to the superior view of an expert.
Bravo!!! (Rising to feet, clapping hands vigorously.)
Damn fine!!!
Superb analysis!
Thank you, Lab Dancer.
Do I hear a second? You betcha!
And LabDancer, why don’t you take your entire comment at # 43 and paste it into an Oxdown Gazette diary?
Just copy and paste it, and Voilà, your excellent commentary can get eyeballs clicking on it as its due.
Seriously, do it!
Thanks for the compliment, you’re much too kind [and of course to DWBartoo as well]. All I meant to do I was extrapolate from William Ockham’s comment; I was quite serious about wanting to see what the mental healthies here thought of it, because it’s really more up their alley.
I expect I’m betraying some disqualifying ignorance on my part here, but what prithee is the “Oxtown Gazette”?
The Oxdown Gazette is right smack on the front page of FDL as the new feature that allows anyone submit a “diary” just like at the Orange place.
As a matter of fact, right at the top of this page shows the buttons for all the cool blogs here at FDL, and now includes the Oxdown Gazette.
Just click on that and copy and paste your comments into a new diary. Folks then get to read what you’ve written and then “Recommend” it for others to read.
The more “Recommendations”, the higher up on the “to read” list that you now can see on the front page of FDL.
Give it a try! I really do think your comment at # 43 would make an excellent Oxdown Gazette diary and would get a ton of recommendations!
And I, Lab Dancer, second MadDog’s suggestion regarding Oxdown Gaztte.
Your comment deserves to be more broadly appreciated.
DW
And I third that notion.
This would be a terrific post at Oxdown.
sojourner @ 10, a shout out for your support of Noriega — it would be soooo great if Coryn is outta DC, and having one more Iraq vet in Congress might actually be good for the military. (The same military that the Iran-Contra Grads out of OVP have been so successful in sidelining, I might add.)
Wm O @ 16 — I’ve only recently begun to glimpse with any real hope the prospect of a blow-out in November. I still recall how completely boggled my mind was after the caucus in my precinct back in Feb — the turnout was stupifying, the demographics were diverse, and in my precinct there happened to be TWO Iraq vets (my state has the 3rd highest National Guard call-up for Iraq, but still…). I had the sense that those two vets were going to crawl over five miles of ground glass if that’s what it took for them to vote against the GOP/War Party this November.
FWIW, this sure supports Howard Dean’s contention that the Dems needed a 50 state strategy. It’s clearly paying off. As is the pick of the humorous, knowledgeable Biden.
I echo everyone.
Oxdown it.
Thank you for a great historical insight.
I’m sorry for the swearing, but who the fuck would go to a McCain campaign event to hear Kissinger speak? Hell, I bet they’d get more people for the zombie Henry Ford.
fwiw: i spoke to a friend in seattle last night who says that mccain has pulled out of washington state. didn’t have a chance to ask her who her source was.
and in sad news, keep linda and loretta sanchez in your thoughts. their brother and his girlfriend are missing, set out on a boat for catalina island and never arrived, but debris from the boat has been discovered. link.
Shit. That sucks. When did the news break? Linda was busy in HJC this morning.
Where’s bmaz? I’m going to guess that it has something to do with subpoenas and state lines.
Please let it be subpoenas for campaign infractions and state line issues, not some sordid sex thing. We have dropped low enough.
I think Michigan was a reasonable state to drop, to be honest. I was a little surprised that he even bothered with it in the first place. In his primary campaign, he more or less told Michigan autoworkers that they needed to get training for other jobs. That’s not going win him any votes, and it’s not something he’s going to be able to come back from.
True. But Obama told MI they needed to raise CAFE standards. I realize, of course, that CAFE has been mooted by the market (as one politician admitted to me not long ago). But that’s no great shakes either.
la times has more. the coast guard search has been going on since yesterday morning, not looking good. they have matched fiberglass fragments from the debris to fiberglass on a barge that was in the area.
that linda was dealing with this knowledge while kicking butt in HJC, wow.
la times link
Yeah, I actually was thinking she was on top of her game today.
I’ll bet they leave behind their push polling robo callers, their negative racist ads, and a few more election frauds that have yet to be detected. Maybe luck will have that Sarah and Todd, instead of being sent to fundraisers in nice, safe Texas and California (OC), will be left behind in Michigan without a chaperone, and they do something something like tell union members how great John McCain’s healthcare will be (not).
The SLAPP suit – my (uneducated) guess is that it is a run-the-clock-make-the-newspapers-think-about-a-lawsuit-rather-than-do-real-reporting trick, that vanishes after November 4th, along with a lot of money.
I am no political tactician, by any means, but I was really struck by McCain’s decision, as well. As you noted, it could well be a knee-jerk reaction on his part… but I also have to wonder if his finances are not drying up rather rapidly. I changed my voter registration earlier this year from Republican to Democrat, but have still received numerous fund-raising letters (most recently with a photo of McCain and Palin grimacing together with a machine-written message below). The point is, he seems to be soliciting people who have already given up on the Republican party.
In fact, I am proud to state that I donated money yesterday to Rick Noriega’s campaign — it is time to say “good-bye” to John Cornyn…
Yeah, their targeting has been shit.
But I just think you stay in MI, bc of all the swing states, it’s hte most likely to respond to nasty race-baiting.
Granted, they’ve already been doing that. And granted, now that McCain is gone, it may mean the RNC can go all race all the time.
But the panic from the MI GOP suggests they’re pulling a lot more out.
Just got a robocall featuring John Dingell supporting Obama. It started out with McCain = Bush on the failed economy and then riffed into McCain and his friends spreading “lies” about Obama. Was paid for by the MiDSCC. Almost sounds like they are trying to prep for the all out negativity that the RNC and 527s will be unleashing.
Timing of the defamation suit is weird….too close to the election to be resolved, so it smacks of being a GOP campaign talking point….to solidify the “our precious right to suppress voting by people we don’t like is being attacked” crowd…
More and more, I’m thinking that McCain is just trying to avoid a rout. The ground game difference is real. Even the Palin-generated enthusiasm is seeming forced. In my heavily red suburban area, there are more ‘W04′ bumperstickers than Obama bumperstickers, but I’ve only seen 2 cars with McCain 08. That’s just weird. I’m not expecting Obama to carry Texas (yet, if the current trends continue for another week, I might just take a few days vacation and canvass for Obama).
I just want to say again that the Obama Campaign has made McCrazy spend more money and in more places – McCain may actually have more of a money problem than they would have us believe – but then of course Tucker Bounds would have inadvertently faxed their balance sheet to the media by now
empty, your sense about the SLAPP Suit as always will be interesting to follow
but it may have been a perfect storm that made them cut ‘ run
Labor has already blanketed the region with Anti-McCain mailers (and will do it again this week) and they are also addressing the racism issue head on within the membership – that may be making some inroads
I’m pretty sure the State GOP didn’t expect that heavy a pushback on their caging shit
The Paulson Money Bomb
and the very real possibility that Obama has compromised him financially
a fine confluence of events
don’t let the screen door hit your pasty white . . .
LOL:
what e-mail account is she using?
Ew/all you have to watch Chris Matthews Hardball tonight. He cut through the Palin bull. I swear he may have pullled some material off of your site EW. He said this is not a “game show, a quiz game, the Dating game”
In regard to Palin he said “where’s the intelligence, the thinking” Palin “recited answers off the shelf” Palin “more style than substance”.
Matthews also asked his guest “what did Palin say that a B plus college grad could not recite” after several weeks of training.
He really peered into her odd comments about the Vice President’s role. Matthews asked “what’s she talking about”
### The only thing that was way off was when he said that Palin answered “all” of the questions. That is total bull shit.
Funnier than Palin!!
There’s a big jazz fest in catalina this weekend. A friend of mine launched his boat to head out this morning.
Between the pleasure craft out of Newport, Dana Point and San Pedro and the cargo vessels out of the Port of Long Beach (largest on the West Coast), the amount of traffic out there is staggering – you really have to keep your eyes open.
Add to that there was a heavy fog warning last night on the marine forecast.
I’ve sailed from and to LB many, many times in fog and even with all the radar in the world, that is one scary ride!
This was a bit more than 30 years ago when I was in the Navy and my ship was homeported there.
Nothing like a zillion ton container ship rolling up out of the fog headed either directly at you or about ready to bite your ass, and seeming so close you could spit at it.
Doesn’t sound good for the Sanchez family.
Badreporter on Palin
Just looked at my emails from the Obama campaign Bruce Sprinstein in Columbus on Sunday at 3
Yea, I got that too. Bruce on the Main Oval at Ohio State? There will NOT be enough room. They do not realize how many college students within an hour of Columbus (or more) will make that road trip in addition to the OSU students alone?
That is going to be huge!
“Springsteen”
Yes!!! How many shows he doing? I thought it ws just te one in NY. Then I heard Philly. Columbus too? I better check out Backstreets.com.
Thats how much I know about music. Hope that information helped some folks head to Columbus on Sunday
Palin tax records have been posted on TalkLeft.com. Source: McCain website. Somebody read it with an eye for exclusions like the per diem for living at home.
Maybe McCain is worried about the entire rust belt beyond MI. I think the credit crunch was supposed to arrive after the election, now it is taking away Republican domestic issues credibility with voters.
What is the likely-hood that mccain’s campaign was factoring in the caging as part of their expectations in MI? Perhaps with that tactic exposed and with democrats on their toes, the campaign knows they have no chance….
That, and racism. If they were discovering white working class men turning to Obama, they had to know they were sunk.
They may well lose the REagan Dems. Given McCain’s ridiculous claim to Reagan’s mantle, I find that reassuring in a way.
That Michigan Foreclosure Caging Scheme is going to get walked-back to Somebody.
And, you know, that has to be one of the Most Heartless Schemes-for-Political-Advantage ever.
It’s very Rovian. Are there any Rove Proteges running Michigan for the Goopers?
Would they be Tied to Knollenberg and/or Walberg?
Need to keep in mind that Knollenberg, Walber, McCotter et al are merely props. Just meat puppets — and in McCotter’s case, meant only to take the place of an actually legislator. Doing nothing is purposeful for their puppet masters
It’s getting walked back, though.
And the reply to her e-mail was;
“You betcha, doggone it, Sarah. We can’t keep looking back, doggone it.”
Hey, i mean it’s good news, but we are supposed to win this one. The fact that it was even competitive this long bothered me. But what about Plain? She meets probably the lowest –no, definitely– the lowest expectations for any presidential/vice presidential candidate for a debate and today she thinks she can tell the campaign what to do? does she really believe the campaign gives a shit what she thinks?
1,783 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Emptywheel and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
Great catch Citizen Emptywheel, my nose still twitches over McCrazy’s leapin’ outta Michigan…maybe I’m sufferin’ from battered Democrat syndrome but there must be a calculated and coordinated effort from the RNC and the state folks ta pick up the shovel and start flingin’ the racist shit…Michigan is still not solidly in Obama’s column and Iwon’t believe it until the Wednesday after the first Tuesday in November. Let’s remember that the Northern redneck vote is centered in Michigan and the outta work union folks have no reason ta vote for Obama based on the bailout bill. Indeed, I suspect we’re gunna see a flood of ads characterizin’ Obama as “bailout Barak” and tryin’ ta tattoo him to the ex-mayor of Detroit.
Barak better plant his feet in Michigan for more’n this weekend ‘cuz the fascists ain’t done with ‘im in that state.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNTION, THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES!!!
and they’re gonna use some of the MI resources to try to pick up 1 EV from ME? don’t smell right. could be just impetuous like you say.
Is it possible that if Palin has to resign, they plan on putting Mitt on the ticket. Would Mitt carry Michigan?
Mr. S tells me Chris Matthews was positing a real stink bomb being thrown by McCain Tues night…or a 527? Is it coming in Michigan? Chuck Todd said on nightly news McCain needed to draw an inside straight. Is the inside straight full of race cards?
Back to read and catch up….
well via TPM mcCain is going 100% negative
add to that the 527 ads like this one (also via TPM)
Get ready for a really nasty end to this presidential race and McCain’s character
OK. i think I got this. Bruce is gonna be in Philly on Saturday, Columbus on Sunday and Ypsilanti on Monday and October 16 id the fundraiser in NYC w/ Billy Joel — $400 for balcony. yikes.
Assuming Detroit will be greatly affected by the bailout, this could be why McCain didn’t want to show his face there.
Two Michigan questions:
1) Are the voting machines paperless electronic (e.g. Diebold)?
2) Is a Repub in charge of them?
Voting machines are all scantrons–Diebold is one of the two manufacturers. But scantrons have a paper ballot.
The SOS and AG are both Republicans. The Gov, of course, is a Dem.
In the past few years, I think the answer to #1 was: it depends on the county. In my district, we’ve had paper w/scanners for several cycles, but some districts had touch-screen only. I thought I read that Michigan had standarized to paper/scanners for this cycle, but I’m not certain.
As for #2, our Gov. is a Dem, but the Secretary of State is a pub. Supposedly she’s a “good” repub, but I don’t buy it. And in a dispute between her and our Gov, we’d be SOL, since the Supreme Court was stacked by Engler with Devos-types, and our Atty General is a freeper.
EW, correct me if I’m wrong on any of this.
As of 2006, they’re all scantrons. The only touchscreens are the single disabled-accessible machines in each precinct.
Terry Lynn is not all good. We tried to do a dry run of full recounts in 2006 (we did do a four-precinct recount during the primary, which for much of hte county is the election, but found that human fatigue made the HUMAN recount inaccurate). And Land and a staffer threatened us if we did so.
You got anybody that can go on record about those threats by Land? email me.
Lab Dancer…please do what Mad Dog suggests. It will be read and
maybe make the other’s will respond as well. Many other’s involved
may help to put a dent into McCain’s negative ads….Make sure you
put the url in your piece at the bottom.
Good Luck…will get others to digg it too.