Whatever Happens with the Debate, Kamala Harris’ Campaign Is Not Yet Half Done
As you watch the torrent of news obsessing about the debate tonight, remember this stat:
Trump’s campaign is 92% done (665 of 721 days).
Kamala Harris’ campaign is not quite half done (48%, or 51 of 107 days).
Lots can and likely will still happen in this race, but Trump is almost done and the Vice President is only halfway there.
The debate coverage is almost entirely focused on what Kamala Harris can do with it (though Peter Baker finally wrote a story — one published above the fold in the dead tree version — that Trump might look old). Polls show that almost a third of voters will look to the debate to learn more about what Harris stands for — which likely is code for “feels.” But pundits are focused on whether Harris can define her policy agenda, or whether Trump can succeed in branding her with policy failures on immigration, inflation, and the Afghan withdrawal.
There has been far less focus — or just as often, outright misunderstanding — on Harris’ efforts to make a Trump meltdown more likely. I’ve argued that was one purpose of Brian Fallon’s very public effort to get ABC to allow live mics. Even though the effort failed, it sets up a focus on the worries from Trump’s own handlers that he’ll lose his cool.
And yesterday and today, Harris has taken steps to make that more likely. Today, she released an ad based on President Obama’s mockery of Trump’s obsession with [cough] crowd sizes.
I’m not a fan of the ad. The glimpse of Trump’s very small hand is over the top.
I’m also not the audience for this ad.
Trump is.
Seeing a Black former President mocking his masculinity is the kind of thing that Trump is often unable to shake without a lot of babysitting.
I’m more fond of yesterday’s ad, which makes a far more substantial point: That none of the “best people” who used to work for Trump support him this time.
It, too, is designed to get under Trump’s skin. Anything involving Mark Milley gets under Trump’s skin! And Harris released it with enough lead time that ABC might even ask Trump about the ad, one of those stupid questions about the campaign that horserace journalists can’t resist. Perhaps the ad will lead ABC to ask a far more substantive question about why Trump is the first former president in history whose former VP refuses to back him.
So Harris is doing what she can to raise the chances that a man with no impulse control will act like a whiny baby in front of the whole country today. He’ll probably avoid saying the N-word (though I don’t rule it out). But there’s a decent chance he’ll say or do something that will display his insecurities about facing a very smart Black woman for all the world to see.
My point about the timing, though, is that the most likely outcome is that this won’t matter. The most likely outcome of tonight’s debate is that whatever happens, pundits will review the debate and decide, 60-40, that one of these candidates won the debate. Focus groups will tell pollsters, 40-60, that the other candidate won the debate.
If that’s the outcome, if Kamala can’t immediately win over a chunk of new supporters, if Trump can’t brand the Vice President as a communist, then it is unlikely to significantly affect the race.
Tomorrow morning, we’re most likely to be where we are today: with a tie race, only with 55 days left instead of 56. Trump will still be 92% done and Harris will be 49% done.
The reason I keep harping on that timing, though, is that most campaign journalists are not accounting for the fact that Harris did in the last 51 days what Trump did (or was supposed to do, but the Guardian reports he has not) in the last twenty months: lay a foundation for the rest of the campaign: Set up offices, recruit volunteers, identify likely voters, prepare a voter persuasion and mobilization plan.
While pundits were focused on crowd sizes, Harris used those huge rallies for a very specific purpose: to very quickly recruit a ton of volunteers who would find and turn out every possible vote. Tim and Gwen Walz and Doug Emhoff are swooping into campaign offices and randomly getting on phone calls that volunteers are already placing to identify and persuade voters, something that wows the voters, but also inspires volunteers that their efforts are not isolated from the larger whole.
But Harris has done something else in the last 51 days that has largely been measured only in terms of enthusiasm, if at all. She has:
- Provided a permission structure (most recently with the Liz and Dick Cheney endorsements) for Republicans to support her
- Elevated reproductive rights from one of many issues to the most important issue for many voters
- Gotten a whole lot of younger voters of color, especially women, to register to vote
All three of those things are a foundation. Only the first one — a permission structure via which self-identified Republicans first consider and then, maybe, vote for Harris — will play a very important role tonight. If she succeeds in presenting herself as the better national security candidate (which should be child’s play) and if she succeeds in allaying concerns about her liberal record, it may advance that permission structure, little by little. Even that won’t immediately show up in the polls.
But the rest of that foundation — the new voters, the newly central reproductive rights as campaign issue — may not show up in polls at all. It’s not even clear which pollsters are using up-to-date registration lists to do their polling. It’s definitely unclear what the likely voter model will look like.
No one knows.
No one knows, in part, because Kamala Harris is only halfway through her campaign.
It’s certainly possible that one or the other campaign will do something that dramatically alters the shape of this race tonight. Though for all the bluster about Trump’s gish galloping debate prowess, if he looks old or melts down, the flood of lies may not be enough, this time.
But if that doesn’t happen — if neither candidate manages to disrupt the tied race with their debate performance — than that other detail becomes important again.
Donald Trump is more than nine-tenths of the way through this race.
Kamala Harris still has half the race to build on the foundation she has laid in the last 51 days.
GOTV doesn’t show up in polls but Ds are far, far ahead of Rs in the ground game. That is a key reason the red wave never happened in 2022
If one believes the pundit rumblings, the RNC has essentially become a conduit to pay the various legal bills while also pulling back from several states including battlegrounds. The focus appears to be a rope-a-dope play to muck up the election enough to throw the election to the House. Between the election officers who will have ‘doubts’ about the vote counts and ‘voter fraud’ to justify refusing to certify the results, and the various suppression tactics (like Paxton’s raid on LULAC in TX) the GOP hope is that Harris won’t reach 270 EC votes which will trigger the House intervention.
The House votes by state, with each state having one vote regardless of the size of the delegation. The Senate votes for VP in that scenario, which in theory could lead to Walz becoming VP (25th Amendment, anyone?).
We saw a taste of this policy in the 2020 election transition, especially with the GSA head Emily Murphy refusing to acknowledge Biden’s win and therefore preventing Biden’s team from access (and no doubt allowing more shredding time).
Agreed. At least from everything I’ve read, Democrats have a far better GOTV operation in most, if not all, the swing states.
Of course, GOTV only matters at the margins, typically 1-3% for one side or the other. (Good thing for Trump that none of the swing states appear to be close*.)
*sarcasm
It’s not really Gish galloping prowess, I think. It is tangential speech and is a symptom of unwellness.
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had a long call with a good friend who finally broke her NYTimes addiction a few years back but is still susceptible to the blaring headlines. had to talk her down from “but Kamala didn’t get any post-convention bounce!” and “the polls!”, emphasizing she can’t look at this election through any “normal” lens. directed her attention to the new voter registrations and engagement. room for optimism, but still too freakin’ close.
All indications are that Harris is attracting young voters. Young voters are less likely to respond to polls. Harris may be farther ahead than what is apparent. I am not young but I have never responded to a poll. They are annoying.
My hope is that Harris can land enough body blows that Trump won’t be able to resist showing his true self and utter some racist/sexist/bigoted shit, either on a hot mic or not.
The people who are, inexplicably, still on the fence may be swayed by an overt show of Trump’s true character.
Why would tonight be any different than the last nine years? My plan us to leave the TV off, put on some good music, and join my spouse writing postcards to voters in a swing state. I think it’s a good plan.
The cynical me does think that the debate, and the political coverage in general, is a mechanism for distracting and demoralizing dems. Reps serving up this narcissism-dementia stew for a, well, half my child’s life. And the first third was us recovering from the Bush recession!
I’ve been seeing vote-related t-shirts in my area, and may do some online shopping. I did loving-kindness meditations almost every day in the first weeks of July.
In the Meantime
Proud of Harris in the meantime
Proud of Harris, such a pol
Proud of Harris
She’s a winner
And she’s civil
Proud of Harris,
She’s a stunner
She won’t shrivel
Proud of Harris, she’s so cogent
She’s so cogent, she’s so clear
Proud of Harris
Why, oh why, so proud of Harris
Fearless, she perseveres
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caExf8y_GVE
“I Love Paris – Paul Mauriat”
Civil
Shrivel
not Drivel
HT – SG
That first ad is running on Fox News this morning! What a great comms team. https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/C_vJSbbvBCZ?xmt=AQGzZiTncGqJFOBir1ezPgDtvOUm1hFtVrbuplUuXkdYYQ
As to running ads for the purpose of getting under Trump’s skin:
I also understand that
“The Best People” ad is booked to run on Fox News as well as in Trump’s hometown of West Palm Beach, Fla., and in Philadelphia on Tuesday to coincide with the presidential debate.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4869112-harris-campaign-features-ex-trump-officials-in-new-ad-for-fox-news-west-palm-beach/amp/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/harris-ad-trump-obama-crowd-size.html Sept. 10, 2024, 1:08 p.m. ET
I don’t know (of course!) but I have a bad feeling that Trump will try to paint Harris as changing her policy positions by talking about how she “recently became black.” I think he thinks it makes the point quicker for his key audience. I think it’s especially likely if one of the presenters lobs a question about flip-lfopping on issues at the two of them. So I’m thinking the debate may turn into a mess.
Harris will maintain her discipline and dignity. Truph may meltdown into a mess.
She won’t, but she could go low: Ask why the press hasn’t asked when and why Trump decided to turn orange. Is he ashamed of his pasty whiteness? Why orange instead of, say, blackface? Is there some amount or shade of skin color that becomes excessive?
She might! FWIW (i.e., nothing, really) my guess is that if Harris engages on this point, she’s more likely to jab and pivot.
So, if the moderators or Trump brings it up, she’d say (with a sense of humor) something like: “In 20 years of televised debates, I think this is the first time my opponent has worn more makeup.”
Then pivot: “But the American people don’t care about how much makeup we’re wearing; they care about what we’ll do if elected….”
My bet is Trump will do enough to have the media saying,”Still a horserace,” and regular citizen – individuals to see one side or the other “winner.” Early backstretch, far still from the finish line, neck and neck will be the pundit analysis.
My bet is also record number of viewers.
NYT reports that HARRIS invited Anthony Scaramucci and Olivia Troy to be there tonight.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/10/us/harris-trump-debate/a5ea31b4-d7de-5f0e-adc1-0364d1ef204d
I wonder if HARRIS camp know who TRUMP camp will invite.
Oooh interesting — the ANC incident is still an issue if Troye is there.
Because Afghanistan.
How Harris deals with this is going to be intriguing.
Trump was too busy organising a coup to keep himself in power, and as a result wilfully failed to engage in any planning at all for the orderly transition of power either at home, or in Afghanistan.
I think one significant issue Is whether he will glitch – will he lapse into paraphasia. He has been doing so repeatedly in his campaign rallies, but it seems to be largely ignored by the Usual Suspects. What happens if he does so tonight? It is one thing to cover up his word/thought salads, it is quite another to pretend away the inability to pronounce common words and lapse into incoherent garble.
Agree.
I would not be surprised if Harris has been coached on how to both induce a glitch and respond to one.
Of course, it could also be as simple as “Was there a complete thought or sentence in that response?” and from there just keep poking the bear until he self-destructs.
That may change a few minds but I think most have already made up theirs months ago. It’s down to turnout and countering whatever vote challenges trump and his ilk throw up. Georgia will likely be the first place we see that.
I’d like to see Harris make a visit to Floriduh after the debate. Its in play.
Kamala Harris would not need to be coached in how to induce a glitch or respond to one. She’s a litigator, a prosecutor, and an experienced politician. That sort of wordplay becomes second nature, or you change your line of work.
Though, as I know you know, practice makes perfect, and the best ad libs are all the better for having been honed and polished
If she can do this to a SCOTUS nominee, I can’t wait to see what she does to Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6g-zycRv8Q
I fully expect the disgraced Dr Ronnie to have provided Trump with enough stimulants to have a couple more than the usual synapses firing tonight.
Dick and Liz Cheney are big permission. Nobody would mistake either one for a liberal. It would be nice if, in addition to Edgar Bergen, Charlie McCarthy himself came forward and endorsed Harris. “Where is George?”, as the refrain went. It would also be nice if more Republicans came to the point where we can disagree on almost all of the issues but would still rather have someone honest and competent in the Oval Office than a know-nothing dictator wannabe.
Confidence rules in any debate. Donthecon has decades of experience acting confident in front of a friendly audience. TeamHarris needs to find a nugget of kryptonite that will weaken the act and expose his insecurities. Mining through the decades of narcissistic offal in search of that nugget takes time…Unless an AI-assisted placer cannon finds it quickly and TeamHarris mounts it in Kamala’s pendant tonight.
Whatever Putin said to him in Helsinki – a symbol of that compramot that he clearly recognizes but is not obvious to anyone else.
Or an image from Epsteins file. Or E. Jean Carroll sitting next to Melania , holding hands – and M’s bodyguard boyfriend next to her. No ring on M’s finger.
Mary Trump would know of the most humiliating moment from his childhood and identify a representation of that. Whatever, Kamala will prevail.
In 1984, Big Brother is not a real person. He is just a Stalinesque face on giant posters and a slew of slogans. I don’t think that the money and people behind Trump care if he glitches or meanders or insults. The reality of Trump doesn’t matter anymore. They want the idea of Trump. Or, to be more hopeful, perhaps the reality of Trump still matters in this brief moment because the false narrative hasn’t yet taken hold completely. In that case, the debate might make a difference.
You can’t rely on the polls, ever. The polls rely on calls to talk to people. Here are the problems with that approach:
1. Working people don’t answer polls. So the polls already don’t include all the workers.
2. Only “true believers” answer polls – only they are more than willing to state their preferences. Normal people don’t answer polls.
3. My final point – people LIE. They answer polls like they WANT to sound, not how they actually think.
Polls are, therefore, useless.
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Are we measuring to the opening of polls, or the closing?
I’m measuring to November 5.
I look back at the time when Democrats didn’t take a messaging advantage with Trump when he proposed surrendering to the Taliban at Camp David (which sent Bolton into a tizzy IIRC) and hope that doesn’t come back to bite them. The Afghanistan withdrawal seems to be sticking a bit and we’ll probably be hearing about it tonight.
It was a golden opportunity at the time IMO but has been left on the table ever since. I still don’t understand why they can’t put it in those terms. It’s easy to understand.
On Mastodon, Rayne reposted something about that from the Harris campaign:
https://masto.ai/@lovelylovely/113099885137781374
Sep 07, 2024, 23:48
Harris campaign:
Here’s TRUMP’s Xeet that day:
6:51 PM · Sep 7, 2019 https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1170469618177236992
1:49 PM · Sep 9, 2019
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171118506089361409
1:56 PM · Sep 9, 2019
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171120177196544000
9/10/19 TRUMP’s National Security Advisor, John BOLTON, resigns
BOLTON is one of the TRUMP officials in the second VIDEO.
I also like the second ad better but the music makes it feel like a movie trailer.
Trump ads talk about pro life and safety. Harris needs to call him a hypocrite and make Trump own the 1.1 million covid deaths. Because of Trump’s recklessness (let in covid, encouraged antivaxers, held superspreader rallies that required signing covid waiver to attend) we had more covid deaths than our 5 deadliest wars. He likes to say “more died of covid under Biden” but that’s because Trump encouraged “freedom over health and safety” by encouraging antivaxers to ignore Biden’s constant pro-vaccine messaging. Finishing line: “Trump thinks 1.1 million covid deaths is freedom and health and safety. I and most Americans have more common sense.”
I hope Kamala Harris remembers her penchant for recruiting people and builds on it. The last few Democratic administrations have put too little effort into staffing and building farm teams to prepare for the next administration.
The junior and mid-level staffers they hire go on to become players in Congress, staffers on the Hill, and senior judicial and political appointees. If you want a bigger boat, you have to build it.
I’m hoping she calls him a liar to his face. With some receipts.