Seizing Opportunity from Chaos
I have always said — and reiterated, in some form, on Friday — that the most immediate way to reverse the damage Trump is doing is seizing opportunity out of a catastrophe he creates.
The most likely way you will get Republicans to start breaking from Trump, the most likely way you will get Republicans to actually take action against Trump rather than simply mewling weakly, is if a catastrophe threatens the world Republicans — as distinct from average Americans — care about.
The global crisis Trump has created is one such possible moment. But it will require keeping focus and wits in a moment of chaos.
Last week, Democrats had several moments of solidarity, first with the Cory Booker Senate speech, then with Saturday’s protests. Those twin events gave aging white liberals who, before this moment, often complained about fecklessness, a sense of direction.
Then there’s the opportunity created by chaos. Both Ted Cruz and Ron Johnson have warned against Trump’s tariffs. Last week the Senate passed a Tim Kaine bill reversing Trump’s claimed emergency on which he based his Canadian tariffs (with Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Rand Paul, and Mitch McConnell voting in support). Chuck Grassley’s bill with Maria Cantwell to reclaim Congressional authority over tariffs has seven of the 13 GOP supporters it would need to pass so far (with Grassley, Collins, Murkowski, and McConnell, plus Thom Tillis, Jerry Moran, and Todd Young). Don Bacon is introducing a similar bill in the House (where it would need more supporters to bypass Mike Johnson’s control).
There’s more overt opposition from the banksters who foolishly believed that Trump would help business, with Bill Ackerman undergoing a moment of cognitive dissonance in real time.
Thus far Trump has doubled down in the face of whatever lobbying he’s getting privately.
But Trump is, in my opinion, wildly overestimating his leverage over foreign countries and probably even Wall Street. China immediately responded to Trump’s tariffs with retaliation. I expect China has a belief that it can cut the US out of global trade flows, and eventually undermine the US role as reserve currency — though to be sure, Trump has telegraphed plans to retaliate using using precisely those tools.
Not only have Trump’s attacks on Canada reversed the Liberal Party’s fortunes [corrected] in advance of an election this month. But Mark Carney’s hard line has quieted Trump’s taunts (at least until after the election). And his experience as a central banker of both Canada and England makes him a natural leader of efforts to make sense of this chaos.
The EU has not yet decided on a response, but among the tools under consideration are sanctions against US tech companies.
Which is to say, other countries may soon disabuse Trump’s fantasy that he wields absolute power.
But in the last several weeks, Trump has gotten several court rulings that will help him accelerate his assault on the Federal government. A week ago Friday, a conservative panel on the DC Circuit ruled that Trump has authority to fire commissioners on panels that Congress has mandated to operate independently, effectively overruling Humphrey’s Executor [corrected] in anticipation that SCOTUS may ultimately do so. The plaintiffs are asking for an en banc review, as of yet to no avail. In the wake of this and an earlier DC Circuit ruling, Trump has successfully argued that Trump has broader authority to dismantle agencies than District judges have initially recognized. And this ruling makes it more likely that Trump will go after the Fed. [Update: The full Circuit reversed and unfired the commissioners.]
Then on Friday SCOTUS overruled a Temporary Restraining Order, thereby permitting Trump to cancel grants to teachers involving DEI, suggesting that the court will eventually side with DOJ’s argument that existing grants must be litigated in Court of Federal Claims. This reflects Amy Coney Barrett switching positions from an earlier USAID lawsuit. This will lead District court judges to pause before granting similar TROs on an Administrative Procedures theory.
The courts have slowed Trump down and on some matters the courts will continue to be a brake, but the twin legal theory that Trump can fire anyone and after installing his own leader dismantle what is left will accelerate some kinds of attacks. It may also encourage him to fire Jerome Powell, which will really spook the markets.
The 2008 bank crash created an opportunity that Barack Obama largely squandered in his effort to save the big banks from their own foolishness. Here, the foolishness is all Trump’s, with banks and hedgies on the hook only for their arrogance that they would be better off with a racist nihilist. That presents a kind of opportunity, even if Trump’s personal appeal counsels indirect counterattacks (for example, on Elon rather than Trump) for the moment.
Here, the task remains the same as it was last week, and the week before, and the week before that. Hold DOGE accountable for dismantling the government. Warn about what DOGE (and Congress) are in the process of doing to Social Security and Medicaid. Make government visible, especially with stories of those fired and great government projects killed. Get non-political networks — PTAs and library reading groups and disease communities — involved in the fight. Tell the stories of the human beings stripped of their due process rights.
Do everything you can to peel off right wingers.
Help your neighbors.
To the extent you are able as you try to protect your retirement and pay the bills, though, try not to lose your head over Trump’s economic catrastrophe. Lots of people are losing their head right now and the people around Trump are stuck defending tariffs on penguins, badly (and inconsistently). It is absolutely horrible, and billions of people are being hurt by Trump’s attacks.
The economic calamity is of a piece with the constitutional one. And the economic calamity may present a path out of both that and the constitutional calamity.
Overreach will be their undoing.
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I wish I had confidence in that. I feel it is more likely that Democrats will bail them out before the economic pain gets too bad, in exchange for no concessions on their rule of law violations or erosion of our democracy. Americans will forget about these 6 months within a couple years and the republicans will just keep on doing what they are doing until our democracy is well and truly dead.
We should all be emailing our senators and congresspeople telling them to not vote with Republicans to end tariffs unless we get some concessions on the other emergency powers issues and/or the utterly lawless DOJ. They need to start messaging now because it will be a tricky needle to thread – but if we just work with a handful of Republicans to end the economically disastrous policies before there is real pain , the uninformed masses in the country will just think these past few months were another example of hysterical democrats making stuff up again.
The only thing that stirs an elected Republican is the threat to lose an upcoming election, which may explain why some senators are speaking out but gerrymandering keeps Congressmen safely out of harm’s way.
Just a nitpick, as you wrote “Trump’s attacks on Canada reversed Labour’s fortunes”.
Canada doesn’t have a “Labour” party, I think you mean “Liberal”, which is the party Carney leads, and who’s fortunes have improved lately.
Thank you! I’ve been in Ireland too long.
Minor correction: the SCOTUS case at issue in firing members of boards is *Humphrey’s Executor*.
As your screenshot suggests, the billionaire is Bill “Ackman.”
re Canada:
Trump has also inadvertently tanked the considerable momentum Conservative Pierre Poilievre was enjoying as Justin Trudeau was flaming out a couple months ago, as well as galvanized the Provinces to pull together in opposition to the madness down here in a way very seldom seen. Carney called for snap elections at the end of April as soon as he became Prime Minister. Given the recent collapse of the NDP (“Canada’s New Democrats”) the election has turned into a two-party affair which is starting to look pretty solid for Carney and Liberals (center left, a little to the right of the NDP.)
Everybody wanted Trudeau gone; he stayed at the party well past midnight, when people were already cleaning up the glasses and the empties. But the beginning of the surge in support for the Liberals goes back to Trudeau’s pushing back aggressively on Trump, making Carney the inheritor of that effort.
And the support for Carney is largely because Poilievre is just a mouth. He spits out slogans, but has done nothing in his life except politics, and in spite of slick media presentation by the Tory party, he comes across as a deeply unserious guy. His roots are also in the prairie populist Alliance party, rather than the straight-up Conservative Party, which is great for his appeal in the Prairies, but doesn’t work so well in the suburbs.
As for it being a snap election, I’d say yes and no, yes because it happened right after he was elected party leader, but no because he can’t lead effectively absent a seat in the House, and a broad mandate to stand up to Trump, meaning everybody in the country expected the 28-day timeline.
A lot of Liberal campaign ads portraying Poilievre as Mini-Me Trump.
True enough — Trump gave Trudeau a thoughtful going-away present, a last chance for relevance after he had so long refused to “take a walk in the snow.”
Carney is running for a seat in the riding of Nepean following on the revocation of the incumbent Chandra Arya’s nomination by the Liberals.
I watched an ad for Poilievre the other night (during a break in Hockey Night in Canada) which ends with he and his wife holding hands as they climb a windblown prairie hilltop to raise the national flag on a pole magically planted there for the occasion. Turgid, utterly without charm.
Yeah, he is kinda charmless, isn’t he? Reminds me of some of the teaching assistants I hung with decades ago, scurrying around after their professor, heads bent low, lips pre-puckered. But perhaps that’s too harsh. He SAYS things, but they often turn out to be more or less without content. Vague clarions focus-group tested to within an inch of their lives. Individual candidates may do well locally, but as of today, it looks like Carney might be able to squeeze out a majority, or if not, another NDP supported minority.
Poilievre often feels like he’s in an uncanny valley between an automaton and an out-of-touch human being. He’s obtusely on message most days, and yet there are those weird moments like his video with PM MacDonald’s bust, or commenting on pigeons in rafters during a presser. Or his “In this life if you don’t laugh, you cry” line.
The Liberal’s however aren’t just drawing away CPC support–this election looks like it’s going to annihilate the NDP (a left-of center party) which expanded it’s base by being Liberal-lite, and now the Liberals are coming home in the face of the various threats to Canada.
I’m hoping for a Liberal majority, because it’s looking like any minority government would have to rely on the Bloc Quebecois to prop them up, which is concerning as they are a separatist party who don’t run candidates outside Quebec.
The only thing I really know for sure is Jagmeet Singh (the NDP leader) is likely running his last campaign (as he runs his party into the ground) and a majority of sane Canadians hate Poilievre enough he’s not likely to win even a minority–short of a scandal big enough to scuttle Carney. And if Poilievre loses to Carney, he’s likely up for replacement too (Jason Kenney, former federal Minister of Immigration and subsequently Alberta premier looks to be positioning himself for a run at the CPC leadership).
If you asked me a year ago if I thought we’d have seen the Liberals in majority territory and an NDP wipeout I’d have said you were nuts. Hell, we could see all three major parties have new leaders by the end of the summer.
I just finished reading an amazing interview at the Guardian with Abigail Disney, one of Walt’s heirs who received a sizable chunk of his fortune. She has been taking an up-front role in urging that people like her ought to pay more in taxes, and the Guardian wanted to hear more from her about Trump and his doings.
On Trump himself:
I can see Mary Trump nodding at that description.
On Musk, Bezos, and the rapacious billionaire class:
I can see Warren Buffet and Bernie and AOC nodding at that description.
On the broader US culture:
After all this diagnostic stuff, the back half of the interview is filled with the meat of resistance — fitting in well with this post:
I can see Marcy nodding at that description, and when I look in the mirror, I see myself nodding too.
Thanks for posting!
Do read the whole thing.
Thank you for this link. A very interesting interview.
Abigail Disney’s article does point to someone who understands their responsibility to society, rare in those elevated circumstances.
As for the 35-40% hardcore MAGA, even though they’ll go on Faux (I wonder if they’re paid) to say they’ll vote for Convict-1 / Krasnov anyway I am pretty certain there will be at least 10-20 % of those who won’t because they were screwed and it’s clear by his statements and actions that Convict-1 / Krasnov just doesn’t care about anything more than the senior club championship. Eventually the betrayal will sink in.
As for the potential third term project, I note that the 22nd Amendment says no third election and the 12th says that a VP candidate must also be eligible for President to run. So, that would push the Speaker of the House into the holding place role but two ambitious politicians (in addition to the House voting him in a Speaker) must clear the way. I can’t see that happening and AG Bondi acknowledged the heavy lift as well. So, I would expect another round of ‘it’s too dangerous to hold the election’ game first floated by Condi in 2004.
I always find myself thinking about Jeffrey Clark’s smart thermostats. “Well, Pat, that’s what the Insurrection Act is for.”
The only question in my mind is whether they attempt something similar in 2028 or if they’re going to roll it out at midterms. In that sense the Stefanik situation is instructive: they are still contesting elections for now but their internal numbers must be bad. If it starts to look like a GOP wipeout in the House I wouldn’t be shocked to see whatever they have cooked up rolled out in 12-16 months.
“It’s a strange way to live when you have objectively more money than a person can spend.”
That’s the ego problem with our culture. Of course, a person can spend the money!
Pay for worldwide expertise & labor: to clean water; to home the houseless; to feed the hungry; to mobilize refrigeration units for lifesaving drugs …
As others said – thank you for posting this!
Thanks for posting this! I look forward to reading the whole article. I’ve been hearing more and more people (regular people in comments) pointing out the sickness and harm the veneration of the wealthy has caused. The ‘80s were an awful time with mostly awful people, IMO. A lot of the MAFA and Christianists remind me of the awfulness of that time. So much progress has been made. It seems predictable there’d be a backlash. We gotta fight on. I will fight on!
I think 35-40% over-estimates Trump’s power. He won this past time with 26% of the electorate (many of whom just did not vote). The biggest Big Lie of this Trump term is that he has any kind of “mandate” from the American people.
It turns out many didn’t believe he really meant what he said about tariffs. Or extra-judicial deportations. Or cutting school funding. The well-situated ones who want to stay on his good side are now asking for “waivers,” the kinds of personal deals they hope Mr. Transactional Loyalty-Is-All will strike with them if they can hide their social media history well enough so as to withstand his paranoid scrutiny.
Of course no one can do that. If Trump wants to screw you, he will. I was surprised Saturday when, talking to fellow protesters on the New Haven Green, I heard people express fear of being identified. I admired a woman’s “Trump L’Oueil” sign; she let me photograph it, but not her. The expression on her face told me her anxiety was deeply genuine.
I’m not so sure that the hardcore Trump voters didn’t believe he would do what he said he would do. They relished in it. But they didn’t – and perhaps still don’t – understand what would happen when he did. He made it sound like such a good thing! Most of those still probably cling to the idea that the “liberal media” is manufacturing bad news around tariffs, extra-constitutional deportations, etc. A captive cult mindset is a tough thing to break.
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Ginevra, speaking to the issue of people expressing fear of being identified, while I was scrolling through images and film from the protests, I came across something that may be of interest. It was something a man said as he was filming.
He made a point of saying that he did not support the protesters, but he said he had every right to film them. I don’t have any idea what his intentions were. But it did bring to mind the person that Marcy called “Phil” and how he would film people at protests. It does worry me. And even after all this time, I still have strong feelings about Kent State (1970.)
And once he is gone and the dust has settled, what are we going to do about those 35-40% that wished us hurt, dead or worst?
Will we let them live with impunity? Let them try again?
Yes, we will let them live and try again if they must. Everyone is free to believe what they want. Are you implying that there is some alternative? What is wrong with you?
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I believe Ricardo Acosta meant to emphasize “with impunity” and not whether they live at all.
Punching Nazis is good. If one is a Nazi, they should expect to be punched until they adopt praxis in which others have the same rights they have to live in peace.
Or are you seriously suggesting that persons who believe others are less than human with zero rights should live out their philosophy without any pushback?
Great points. Minor proofreading: about 7th paragraph up from the end, I think “break” when you meant “brake.” (…will continue to be a break,… )
The Cory Booker speech drew a HUUGE response from the Montpelier, VT protesters on Saturday. The Democrats would be wise to do it again, as it fires up the base.
When Peter Welch spoke, there were multiple cries of “do something” from the crowd. If Schumer were there, he would have been loudly booed.
I completely agree that we should try peeling off right-wingers. Call every few days if you have Republican reps.
I believe the best way is to defend the Constitution and fight for American people. Fight for teachers. For scientists. For rights for all. For rule of law.
Right wingers who can’t see the benefit of that are rabid loyalists. IDK what it would take to shock them into a mind-change, when these fools make statements such as this about cuts to the NIH
“cancer research has taken billions of $ and have not found out any help to help stop cancer. They are the cancer.” – a nut job’s response to a family post on FB.
Someone who thinks all cancers are the same. Some are easy to cure, some are hard, and they’re working on those. Finding ways to spot them early is a start, especially for the hard ones.
Potential vaccine against pancreatic cancer:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cancer-vaccine-mrna-pancreas-nih
The follow-up studies, urgently needed, are hampered by the current administration because this type of vaccine shouldn’t be named in grant applications.
Mentioned in the article to which PJ (thank you) provided the link.
Well that remark about cancer sounds like it comes from somebody who lost a loved one due to cancer. I too, have lost someone.
AND, I know three people who survived it. Including my beloved wife of 35 years, who survived a brain tumor, which was operated on using the coolest real-time imaging combined with MRI imaging tech imaginable. Which of course, had to be researched at some point.
All, thanks for the corrections to my errors in the post. I blame 10 days in Paris. I’m back, but slow.
We’re starting to see price hikes to Scotch and to French wines in our local area, as well as some of our favorite items selling out and not being immediately restocked.
Hope you enjoyed Paris.
Yesterday, a dozen eggs at supermarket in S.F. $13.00
Favorite sign Saturday “you wanted cheap eggs – you got Measles
I’ve been thinking about blogging Eggs, to talk about how they’re not going up here.
Now I’ll switch to tariff free luxuries, like French wine.
Tho I fell in love with Benin pineapples last week and doubt I can find them in Ireland. should have brought 6 in the suitcase.
Somewhere in Ireland, there must be a govt economist working to find a way for the Irish government to levy a tax on rooms, greens fees, restaurants, and golf pro shop purchases at resorts and courses owned by US presidents (Doonbeg) who are levying tariffs on the Republic of Ireland.
And maybe they could get together with their Edinburgh counterpart to do likewise in Scotland at Turnberry and MacLeod House & Lodge.
Wonder if we should have a little block in the righthand navigation bar displaying egg prices from key locations on a weekly basis. LOL
I went and stocked up on tequila and soju early last week. When I told the cashier at my local wine + liquor store I was getting a jump on tariffs, they told me Michigan law prohibits raising prices any more frequently than once every 90 days. The last price hike was late January so I have a couple more weeks to buy up some Canadian whiskey, Bordeaux and Vouvray petillant.
And more tequila and soju, of course.
With events moving as fast as they are, you’ll need to plan frequent trips to keep the likker cabinet well-stocked. :-)
I just confirmed that the two tasks I had to initiate–sending the aunt’s china back to myself in Ireland and sending an alert box back to the people who duped her into leasing it–have been completed.
Next up, figuring out what I’ll put in all those serving dishes I have to do a big sort to fit in the cabinet.
“We’ll always have Paris.”
The radio on the pre-K commute this morn was informative.
Classical station from the city was fired up saying send in donations to fund drive to keep classical alive, and contact your Reps to get Nat. Endowment Humanities funds flowing again. Most riled I have ever heard those always calm and serene hosts, ever.
Local rural radio to the south had a big in house news report on protest all thru central IL and IN, regions redder than my red-purple area.
Protestors were upset about VA cuts, LIHEAP cuts, Medicaid cuts and farm mkt instability and losses. They played clips from Vet advocates, senior advocates and farmers themselves and Ag advocates. Not a usual news report in the least.
Very encouraging.
My dad reports farmers and small town leaders are agitated and broadcasting across N IA and into WI central region. Farmers very upset about Canadian chemical prices and food bank, Fed ag buys, USDA cuts and biggest mkt, China, cutting off.
How are they broadcasting across N IA and into WI central region?
radio, newspapers and Tv make it across the big river between the 2 just fine. signs dont but are on both sides he says.
Its rural there and everyone from both sides has to run across to buy life supplies all the time depending on what they need.
Maybe Trump will arrange to have Iowa and Wisconsin farmers obtain potash (which has previously come from Canada) tariff free from Russia or Belarus (who were not tariffed).
Oh Lord, let this poison piña colada cup pass from our lips.
Just a little sip and you might get a peek at Him.
Marcy suggests we do all we can to peel off right wingers. She’s totally right. And to that end a while back I heard Jasmine Crockett say something along the lines of …. You do not have to be a Democrat to vote for one. A smart and apropos sentiment.
The message that Trump lied to them helps give discontented people who voted for him absolution for turning against him now.
Making the MAGA Republican distinction may further reassure them that they can maintain party loyalty while objecting to Trump.
Things are going so well that Trump took a few days off to golf. Somehow he found time to tell us, “Relax, people, it’s all good!”
Before stock market crash: Musk and Trump are billionaires
After stock market crash: Musk and Trump are billionaires.
As Steve Bannon taught us, “Ignore the noise, watch the signal.”
Sweating Bear, Lutnick
If you get down with the goods today
you’re sure of some big old lies,
If you get down with the goods today,
even farm girls are wise guys.
For bull or bear that ever there was,
Trump staffers there are certain because
today’s the day state of affairs
confabs Lutnick.
The sweating bear, up to no good,
has fear of Wall Street today,
There’s lots of heartlessness & deceit
and plunder-ful games they play.
They shoot the breeze, hope nobody sees
They’ll hide and seek
as long as they please,
That’s the way state of affairs
confabs Lutnick.
Lutnick slimes state of affairs,
Hard hit state of affairs
is having an ugly time today,
Watch them watch dips in their shares,
Already Lutnick’s plan in disarray.
See them daily gad about,
They love to stray and shout,
They greet us with steely stares,
At six o’clock the moneyed old lackeys
will take us behind the shed,
They’ve backfired our world affairs.
If you get down with the goods today,
Beware the man on the throne,
It’s hand-me-downs with the goods today
Note that his cover is blown.
This market bear that ever there was,
Trump staffers there are certain because
today’s the day state of affairs
confabs Lutnick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAwfU4Ig63Q
“The Teddy Bears Picnic by John Bratton (1907, piano solo)”
OT, but it seems John Roberts isn’t bothered by the Trumpers illegally sending people to foreign prisons. The by midnight return order of Mr. Garcia has been stayed.
This is another example of our system of laws being unable to deal with this administration. Garcia could be beaten to death in the Salvadoran prison tomorrow, and our court system cannot prevent it because it has been designed to move slowly and carefully. Each and every nuance must be argued to death, because ‘the law’ has always been–oh! wait!–the founders never envisioned that the law would be used to deflect and delay, and to avoid, justice. Meanwhile, our Democracy crumbles because some very rich conservatives have worked out how to use the law to destroy it, instead of preserving it.
The legacy he’s been so carefully protecting is now as worthless as that of the CJ for Dred Scott.
That “legacy” could have been upheld any number of close decisions, ala his ACA decision. At some point well long ago now Roberts started playing a different game. My initial guess is when he saw what Americans could be willing to tolerate if “guided” back in 2016. That he does not play as viciously as Alito or crudely as Thomas does not change that reality.
I doubt John Roberts has changed much. He’s just smoother than the crude Thomas and Alito.
Dear MAGA Patriots,
We regret to inform you that we are forced to raise the price of our Trump Bible from $60 to $80. As you know we import them from CHYNAH and therefore we must pass the 35% tariff on to you. We know you will pay whatever we ask because you are REAL PATRIOTS!
Regards,
Donald J. Trump
OT, however alarming to me.
US marshals were mobilized to warn fired DOJ lawyer over congressional testimony, attorney says
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-justice-dept-mobilized-armed-150244604.html
Schiff & Raskin Expose Trump’s Attacks on the Rule of Law in Major Hearing
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElEVeJA-byE)
Testimonies start at 19:30
it is a foregone conclusion that at emptywheel the level of commitment and energy is very high. thank you.
for many of the rest of us, we know “all the things” we should be doing to take action in our own communities and to re-invigorate democratic society.
(those who have been tirelessly demonstrating for Gaza’s and Palestinians’ rights in the face of monstrosity deserve recognition for their single-minded persistence. but theirs is a single focus effort.)
(AOC, sen sanders, sen warren are admirable. how do they do it?)
and, just as designed by the psychopaths, the constant ‘firehose’ of assaults on civility and checks and balances leaves ordinary people like me exhausted and unable to focus or participate meaningfully in ordinary affairs, let alone momentous ones.
i’ m not giving up, but i am praying for nuclear fuel for energy to carry on.
Attorneys, believing in the ‘rule of law’, and brainwashed by what has been taught in the nation’s law schools for 100 years, ignored Masha Gessen, when she wrote “your institutions will not save you”.
The courts are useless. They have been usurped at the highest levels by carefully laid plans to workaround recalcitrant judges and to place their actions before ‘friendly’ courts that will rule the way that they want. There is nothing to stop them, and, so far, I’ve seen nothing that proves that conclusion, and Gessen, wrong.
Your optimism is overwhelming.
Can you name a single court decision that the administration has fully complied with? The Adams case doesn’t count, because Adams is still mayor of NY, which was at least a partial victory for Trump’s DOJ. And they got rid of the federal attorneys that were naysayers in that case, too. Basically, they achieved total control of SDNY.