“Dead Man Walking:” Magic Numbers Nine and Four
I’d like to look at a few things that Chuck Schumer said in a wildly counterproductive interview.
After a squishy exchange about the horrible people running for NYC Mayor, Lulu Garcia-Navarro challenged Schumer for his focus on upcoming elections. Schumer noted that the courts are our best bulwark against Trump’s abuses (something that factored heavily in his decision to let the Continuing Resolution get a vote). But then Garcia-Navarro asked what happens when Trump starts ignoring judges, as he did Friday when deporting hundreds of mostly Venezuelans to El Salvador in defiance of an order from James Boasberg. Schumer said he hoped the five to six Senators who’ve spoke up in support of the courts would do so — but then suggested they might be more likely to do so in a few months, assuming Trump will become less popular.
You know, I’ve heard you and other Democratic leaders talk about the next election as if it’s just going to be another election like any other election. But there has been all of this discussion about Trump auguring the end of democracy. I worry about this. When I say we’ll win the election, I’m assuming democracy stays, but that we have to fight to make sure that happens. I think that Trump is destroying norms that have preserved our democracy for centuries, certainly for decades, and he’s destroying them, and he doesn’t care. What is our best bulwark? It’s the courts. And one of the things we were able to do, which is proving very, very good, is we put in 235 new judges. And they’re now hearing so many of the cases that attorneys general, private citizens, unions and others are bringing. We’ve had preliminary success.
Are they going to respect those court orders, do you think? That is the $64,000 question. So let us say the courts uphold this. And one of the people who will determine that more than any other is probably John Roberts, who is very conservative. I didn’t vote for him. But I do believe that he believes in the courts. And so I think that even at the highest level, if you get the Supreme Court upholding the law, it will matter. What if Trump keeps going? That’s the question everybody’s asking. And I worry about this a lot. I wake up sometimes at 2, 3 in the morning thinking about this. I believe this, and it’s a little bit in concert with what I’ve said to you before: I believe Republican senators, on this issue, will stand up. I’ve talked to some of them. About five or six have said publicly they will work to uphold the courts, and to uphold the law if Trump tries to break it. And we can do that legislatively if we have to. That’s my hope. That’s what we’ve got to work toward. And I think there’s a decent chance that that would happen, particularly if Trump, three months from now, is less popular. [bold NYT’s, italics mine]
Those five to six Senators have been silent since Trump’s open defiance was revealed on Saturday.
Then, later, Schumer again pointed to his confidence that Republican Senators would like some distance from Trump.
The Republicans would like to have some freedom from Trump, but they won’t until we bring him down in popularity. That happened with Bush in 2005. It happened with Trump in 2017. When it happens, I am hopeful that our Republican colleagues will resume working with us. And I talk to them. One of the places is in the gym. When you’re on that bike in your shorts, panting away next to a Republican, a lot of the inhibitions come off.
These passages were among those mocked by those prioritizing Schumer over Trump and Elon Musk. In the rush to condemn Schumer (who has canceled the book tour at which there were sure to be loud protests), people mocked the very idea that Republicans in the Senate would ever oppose Trump.
I think Schumer has earned a good deal of the criticism he’s getting, even if I’m certain it is distracting from the focus on Trump and Musk.
I part ways with the claim that Senators will never split from Trump.
To be very sure, Trump has garnered near-total fealty, from the House and Senate, since his inauguration in January. His grip on the GOP has tightened year after year since he first sold his grievance narrative in 2018. The reason the Senate had this no-win choice in the first place is because, for the first time in recent memory, the GOP House stood together on a funding vote. Many of these Senators are veritable cult members, spouting the craziest nonsense that Trump told him to say.
But to suggest Senators will never split from Trump is counterproductive for two reasons.
First, to suggest you can never get Republicans to break with Trump is to concede.
It is to give up on one of just a few theories of change available — with just (successful) mass protest and revolution left — and to give up on the one that could bring results most quickly. In the short term, at least, it would take just nine members of the House or four Senators to completely stall Trump’s agenda on a particular issue, and fewer members of the House to cause gridlock. There are that many members who oppose Trump on discrete issues (most notably, Ukraine and Medicaid funding), and exploiting that reality is a tool, however inadequate. Even if you think a mass protest movement would be more successful, pressuring the Senators who’ve enabled Trump so far is a necessary (and fairly easy) step to push back against Trump.
In the interview, Schumer seems to too readily adopt James Carville’s theory of change, to do nothing to accelerate this process (note, Carville’s op-ed assumed House Republicans could not mount the unity to fund government). Perhaps he wants to avoid pissing off the men he’s panting away next to in shorts in the Senate gym.
There’s a great deal that people can do to make it more likely Senators will oppose Trump. I try to make a point of calling out Joni Ernst publicly every time Pete Hegseth disappears the accomplishments of women soldiers, or Thom Tillis every time Hegseth makes the military less safe, or Roger Wicker every time Hegseth has an embarrassing faceplant, or Bill Cassidy every time RFK Jr does something to exacerbate the measles outbreak, or Jerry Moran every time DOGE makes a stupid cut of VA benefits, or Todd Young every time Tulsi Gabbard repeats Russian disinformation, or John Cornyn every time Marco Rubio cuts back on PEPFAR, or Tom Cotton every time Trump does something that will help China. These people haven’t hidden their disagreement on key issues or appointees with Trump. Yet, in spite of those disagreements, these people have all done things to support people they knew were wrong. As the consequences of their cowardice pile up — as measles spreads across the country from Texas and veterans lose their jobs — their complicity should be front and center.
And while right wing members of Congress are not publicly confronting Trump, some of them are pushing back quietly, mitigating some of the damage Trump is doing — sometimes even in ways that extend benefits beyond their own jurisdiction. According to the NYT, for example, Deb Fischer was among those who pushed Trump to reverse some of the firings at National Nuclear Security Administration (though NYT also reports that NNSA lost many key experts nevertheless).
And GOP pushback will go largely unnoticed elsewhere. After succeeding in strong arming vaccine propagandist RFK Jr’s confirmation to lead HHS, Trump withdrew the nomination for vaccine propagandist Dave Weldon to lead CDC, minutes before his confirmation hearing this week, because Weldon didn’t have and wouldn’t get the votes.
That’s all we’ll see of GOP pushback until proof of consequences of their own complicity and pressure on them mounts. But in a world where any kind of friction can slow the march of authoritarianism, even that non-public pushback bit matters, and it could provide definitive down the road.
By all means, scoff at Carville’s outdated naivete and Schumer’s unwillingness to more directly confront those he pants next to on the exercise bike.
But don’t abstain from pressuring right wingers to show some courage against Trump’s outrages.
If Schumer were to be replaced as Senate Minority Leader, who are the best candidates?
I particular like some of the messaging I see from Chris Murphy and Sheldon Whitehouse. I don’t know how well they translate to leadership roles.
I think Warren or Murphy would lead the pack of acceptable replacements. I think Whitehouse might find a more productive way to broker unanimity.
Adding, All these discussions need to address that the way you get elected Leader is, in significant part, fundraising ability. None of the obvious replacements would replace that function.
Here’s Murphy on the Senate floor laying out the corruption that is endemic in the Executive right now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L30RNRAtMnY
I’d go for Liz, though. Senate Minority (as well as Majority) Leader is another glass ceiling that rarely gets attention as such, and Warren would be a powerful one.
yes, the fund raising is key and one reason among many that Nancy Pelosi was such an effective Speaker and leader.
This is probably a profoundly stupid question, so please be gentle, but is there value in calling the offices of senators and representatives that don’t represent my state?
I have made many calls to my senators and representatives over the years. They have some incentive to listen to me since I’m one of their constituents, but would it be counter productive to call some of these Republican senators or representatives from states that do not represent me?
My concern is that a call from a number that does not come from one of their constituents, especially one that does not vote for them or their party, would cause them to double down and think that “If these random Dems are calling and complaining, I must be doing something right.”
Or is this more of a numbers thing? Maybe the more people call with real concerns will help them steel their spines and do the right thing.
Thanks to anyone who responds!
Keep up the great work Marcy and all!
No. Stick to your MoCs.
Whenever I write to a politician not in my district I change my address on the form.
I usually use whatever number Main Street and a zip code from the area of that politician, googled previously.
I almost always get a reply.
Try that to get through.
I’ve used the address of a library in their district. It’s not going to show up as non-existent.
Outside of my MoCs, I call Rep. Jeffries and Sen. Schumer, as they are the leadership.
That said, I have called a few MoCs after they’ve done something effective, just to to let them know they’re being noticed from elsewhere in the country. I preface the call with an an acknowledgement that I’m not a constituent, but I’m calling to say “great job and more please” and consider working with my MoCs.
Yeah, that is probably appreciated.
Ben Wittes put it succinctly over the weekend:
“I can’t promise that if we all act like this problem is manageable, it will prove so. But I can promise that if we all act as though this problem is not manageable, it will not be.”
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-situation–the-full-scale-situation-two-months-in
The other place pressure against the GOP is having an effect is the way in which they by and large quit holding open town hall meetings. By all means, if your GOP senator is around for something — a town hall, a ribbon cutting appearance, or anything else — be sure to greet them warmly and register your concerns about what is happening.
I am reasonably sure that the GOP are also watching the growing protests at Telsa dealerships. The more Musk becomes a figure of ire, anger, disdain, and outright idiocy, the more the Senate GOP will be willing to stand up to him. They will try to thread the needle by saying “We support Trump, but Musk is a problem,” and if that takes hold, DOGE will really be slowed down.
With the government funded for the rest of the fiscal year, the legislative branch can go home. Trump will veto any bill he doesn’t like and then it will take, not 4 senators and 9 Reps, but a two-thirds majority to override. His agenda seems entirely focused on his rigid abnormal personality, devoted to revenge and domination, and all he needs for that is the DOJ, DHS, and DOD, to continue what they’re already doing. He will use his Executive Branch powers and then some to fuel his megalomaniacal fantasies of becoming an Emperor of North America from the Arctic to the Panama Canal . .
As Marcy says, one of the best things we can do is keep the pressure on. I appreciate her continued calling out of Republican members of Congress. But most Americans will never know what Marcy and other progressives are doing. The word doesn’t get to them. The horrible consequences of many of the things Republicans are now doing won’t get to them. Some will. Prices. Social Security problems. But many will not. Or it will be too late. That’s why I suggested a website that catalogs the Trump administration actions, consequences, and likely consequences. I have also seconded the idea of others to have effective Democrats run daily press conferences detailing the consequences.
I now want to combine those two ideas into a new one: The Consequences Tour. We already have Walz and Sanders and others visiting parts of the country to try to reach more people. I would like to see a rotation of effective progressive voices run a daily … something (rally, town hall?) where they target one or two actions and lay out the consequences in clear language. And take questions from the audience. One stop may focus on Ukraine and the destruction of the VOA. Another might tackle the likely disastrous consequences of making the tax cuts permanent. I’m not a good judge of what those actions/consequences should be, but I think such a “tour” could be an effective way to educate more people about the real consequences to their lives and their country and their world, given that our leaders and our media are doing such a poor job at it.
Great idea! What is the first step YOU can take, in the first hour and with the first ten dollars?
«ἀπὸ μηχανῆς θεός» “deus ex machina”
When all tools become obsolete, there is always a hope from the “supernatural…but «Συν Αθηνά και χείρα κίνει»
A man fell in the water and was praying to Goddess Athina to save him, a passerby shouted ” Along with Athina move your hands !!!
Do something !!!
Democrats better stop blaming each other and work together, no option is a good option now except unity.
I agree it’s unwise to assune no future dissent from the GOP Senate.
Caught a Tom Cotton Hoover Institute interview and he was not enjoying the circumlocutions required to praise Donald while discussing Ukraine.
I suspect very nasty events will be required to shake these Senators loose but I think such will, tragically,happen.