On the Ambivalence of Speaker Mike’s Gavel
Mike Johnson was reaffirmed Speaker yesterday.
The how matters. In what would have been the first vote, six people did not vote and three voted for other candidates, for a total of nine people opposing Johnson. The number is significant because the new rules require nine people to call to replace the Speaker (right wingers sent out a letter of complaints about Johnson signed by 11 members, so they have a few friends). So before the vote was cast, the right wingers demanding austerity from Johnson made a show of having the ability to immediately call to replace him.
At that point, Hakeem Jeffries had 214 votes, Johnson 210, others 3, and 6 people wandering the halls.
Then, basically, Republicans cheated to keep the vote open for two hours. They hid the “tellers,” who have to tell the Acting Clerk what their vote totals, off the floor, so the vote could not be called.
Meanwhile, the six holdouts spoke to Trump, who exhorted them that Johnson was the only person with the “likability” to get his, Trump’s, policies approved. Eventually, the six no votes registered for Johnson, two of the three “other” votes flipped. And Mike Johnson got the required 218 votes.
So: cheating and fealty to Trump will get Trump through to Monday where he’ll be declared President.
Lots of stories on this want to determine what it all means and I think the most important takeaway is we don’t know. Mike Johnson could build on cheating and blind fealty to Trump to go anywhere from here.
The hardliners made it clear — in the way they delivered their votes — they are disciplined yesterday. What’s not clear are whether Main Streeters (what might be called moderates if they weren’t just a different kind of right wing) could be equally disciplined if it came to it. I doubt they can. That’s when you’ll see the same carrots and mob-based threats we saw during the Jim Jordan fight.
Thus far, Jeffries has managed his caucus impeccably. Going forward, staying unified in opposition, in contrast to what Dems did last Congress (where they usually kept the lights on with a minority of Republicans), may be a tougher battle.
The question is how coming challenges will stress the very fragile unity Johnson won today.
Monday’s vote certification should be uneventful. Kamala Harris can put herself out of a job without a terrorist attack to threaten it.
Then Congress has to raise the debt limit. This is actually an area where there could be sharp disagreement between the hardliners in Congress and Trump, because they [think they] really want to cut US debt, whereas Trump wants no limits on his spending powers. Johnson will be completely dependent on Trump, so he’ll likely try to raise the debt ceiling. But there’s no reason for Democrats to help him do that.
If, as I wildarse guess, Brad Weinsheimer fancies delivering up both Jack Smith and David Weiss Special Counsel reports around January 10, those reports may create chaos as well. As I’ve said, I think Weiss wants to smear up Biden, and Republicans could well be tempted to impeach him on his way out of dodge.
Short term Republican hopes are that they’ll be able to achieve much of their policy goals through reconciliation (which cannot be filibustered in the Senate). But that’s already a bone of contention.
A lot of the reviews of the vote have focused on how little Johnson has to manage the Freedom Caucus. And many Freedom Caucus members are stupid and believe that Jim Jordan could get the gavel — and with enough coercion from Trump, they might be right.
But what we know least going forward is how tensions between Trump and those right wingers will play out, the degree to which he’ll be able to coerce or con his way out of them, and the degree to which the few sane Republicans left will want to stick around and watch all that.
I guess the one question is how the Elmo factor plays out in all this. It is clear that Elmo will threaten any GOP rep who steps out of line. However, it is not clear to me how Trump and Elmo continue their bromance for much longer since they both have extremely large egos to satisfy and some conflicting goals. Also, do not count out the real MAGA core believers like Bannon who are ready to declare war on Elmo and perhaps Trump if immigration policies do not suit them, so that is another area likely to stick a thorn in both Elmo’s and Trump backside.
Yes, Musk gave over a quarter of a billion dollars to the Trump campaign, but Trump is not famous for gratitude. What is to stop him from dropping Musk like a hot rock at any time? I assume Trump still feels he can get more out of Musk, whether that more is monetary or ego strokes via social media. But I also assume that those two superegos can’t mesh for long. Trump doesn’t really need Musk anymore. If he does, what IS the need?
Elon is arrogant. Trump is needy. Trump’s praise of Elon makes Elon grin. Elon’s praise of Trump makes Trump orgasm. Elon could play that for ever if he’s careful.
Timothy Snyder is focused on the money, which he thinks is key for Donald:
‘“I think we overestimate Trump and we underestimate Musk,” he says. “People can’t help but think that Trump has money, but he doesn’t. He’s never really had money. He’s never even really claimed to have money. His whole notion is that you have to believe that he has money. But he’s never been able to pay his own debts. He’s never been able to finance his own campaigns.
‘“Musk, with an amount of money that was meaningless to him, was able to finance Trump’s campaign, essentially. And all the threats that Trump is now going to issue – ‘I’m going to primary people, I’m going to sue people’ – Musk is going to pay for that, not Trump. And when Trump needs money for anything, he’s going to be asking Musk.’
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jan/01/timothy-snyder-trump-musk-russia-ukraine-putin
But there are people around Trump who are not just after the money but have actual political or religious agendas. They are not beholden to Elon, as we’ve already heard from some of the hardcore MAGA crowd.
Buckle up.
Another wildarse guess . . .
Trump pleaded with the hardliners:”You guys *have* to elect Mike Johnson speaker, so that my election can be certified on Monday. After that, you can move to vacate the chair and elect whoever the hell you want. But I gotta have that election certified.”
And Chip Roy smiled at the thought of Trump being in debt to him . . .
It may be that simple. If so, it will make the debt ceiling epic.
Absolutely agree with the first part of your statement, but I don’t think Trump’ll care what Chip Roy thinks he’s owed.
Trump got what he wanted and everyone else can go to hell. I think he’ll even be less interested in governing (if such a thing is possible) and more interested in continuing to blatantly monetize his presidency (I don’t think he has a ceiling on this interest).
And as long as we’re all guessing, I do think the debt ceiling issue will be a huge clown show, followed up by confirmation hearings that will most likely be an even bigger clown show. And Trump won’t care.
“…and more interested in continuing to blatantly monetize his presidency (I don’t think he has a ceiling on this interest).“
That would be the dolt stealing.
;-D
Sorry, but I did laugh out loud, startling the dog …
@vvv: my apologies to the startled pup!
Who was MTG talking to on her cell phone as she sat next to Johnson when the vote was stalled? I thought there was a rule against taking calls on the House floor. Was it Trump? Probably.
Meanwhile, theoretically they could impeach and remove Biden to even the score, but they’d have to impeach Harris first. But that would screw up all the “47” merch, so I’m speculating madly that a House-only impeachment would be as far as they go.
Susie Wiles.
The two words that are doing the heaviest lifting in your comment are “and remove” which requires the Senate to convict.
Not a chance in hell that any Dems in the Senate will join the GOP to get to the two-thirds threshold needed for that. For that matter, I doubt the entire GOP caucus would vote to convict.
But the House will vote to impeach as soon as the Wise report is released next week. It’s all choreographed. The only thing is will the press play along – of course, and can Jack Smiths report overtake the performative narrative. Probably not.
Marcy says:
“If, as I wildarse guess, Brad Weinsheimer fancies delivering up both Jack Smith and David Weiss Special Counsel reports around January 10, those reports may create chaos as well. As I’ve said, I think Weiss wants to smear up Biden, and Republicans could well be tempted to impeach him on his way out of dodge.”
To refresh my memory, I found it helpful to re-read this previous post by Marcy:
https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/02/24/naval-gazing-the-ethics-problem-caused-by-merrick-garlands-brad-weinsheimer-solution/
Very helpful and useful to review Marcy’s previous post, danke sehr SL. Does that post also show an area where Garland should have been more forceful?
Yes. In my opinion.
Well, as long as MAGA Mike is convinced he’s doing God’s will via Trump then who are we to question?
“Then, basically, Republicans cheated to keep the vote open for two hours.”
Yes, cheating is a common trait among Republicans along with lying and stealing.
Dewey, Cheatum & Howe, Esq.
“The number is significant because the new rules require nine people to call to replace the Speaker (right wingers sent out a letter of complaints about Johnson signed by 11 members, so they have a few friends)”
Ahem…
Three Rings for the Wall Street-kings under the sky,
Seven for the MAGAt’s in their halls of stone,
Nine for Caucus Men doomed to die,
One for the Felon on his dark throne
In Mar-a-Lago where the Felon lies.
One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
In Mar-a-Lago where the Felon lies.
Hackneyed prose aside will the Freedom Caucus’ make life interesting for the Johnson unit about, oh – say March 14th?
Firebombers and arsonists abound in the people’s house and while that may have always been the case this new brood has found a wink-and-a-nod from the Felon Guy. Will he actually play the game and give his stochastic nod to ‘stand down and stand by’ to these House arsonists?
Nice one BJAG.
And as elon clings to his Precious, falling back into Mt Doom’s fire, The melting One Ring undoes all of Felon Guy’s evil deeds.
It’s Dante’s Devine Comedy replayed all over again with Satan’s three maws chewing on the House of Sinner’s hackneyed excuses.
Wait. 214 for Jeffries, 210 for Johnson, 3 for others, and six abstaining makes Jefferies the speaker. 214 out of 427 votes for people. I bet they held the vote open!
“The new rules make it so that a vote on removing the speaker can only be brought if at least nine Republicans support what is called a ‘motion to vacate.’
“That is a significantly higher bar than in the 118th Congress when any single member in either party could force such a motion.”
Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/01/03/mike-johnson-motion-to-vacate-new-rule-passed
I heard one Democratic Congressperson say on TV that this is the first time a rule which allows only the majority party to have a voice/choice/vote on such an issue has been laid down.
Methinks it is a harbinger of things to come.
Yup. But someone assured me that the majority would have a way to make it happen in any case.
Holding vote open (by hiding tellers; I didn’t know that part; nice reporting) as “cheating” might be technically correct. And Democrat and Republican House leaders have been doing that for ages (and the Senate does it all the time). So “cheating” seems unfair.
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What is going to happen on Monday, Jan 6? No doubt trump would like the vote to confirm his election to proceed without a hitch. I wonder if one or more Dems will object to trump serving as president because he is guilty of Insurrection. As proof, they can cite the Colorado Court decision with the Colorado Supreme Court confirming, the Jan 6 Committee findings and the vote of 57 Senators who voted guilty at trump’s second Impeachment trial. Probably will not succeed, but it will remind the public of the horror scene that took place on January 6, 2020.
I suspect Melania will show up for the inauguration though she reportedly will not live with her felonious, cheating husband at the White House.
The most interesting thing about the whole bawdy spectacle is how she will attempt to disguise her apparent contempt.
oh, she’ll be showing up. it was just announced that Bezos’ Amazon Prime has picked up the licensing for a “documentary” currently being shot on the life of Melania, produced by Melania, starring Melania. No word on how much $$$ Melania is getting for this.
Did Melania ever have that press conference she promised in 2015 to explain her immigration process? Did I miss it? Will this new documentary go into it? Or the allegations against the Trmp Model Management for employing foreign women on tourist visas?
Oh, she will show. Not in that blue Ralph Lauren number she wore to the first one, because she’ll have a new outfit to shill. Melania’s a grifter–a champion, better than hubby, because unlike him she stays cool cool cool to the end.
It was so interesting to see her cover her bets during the election by saying she supports women’s reproductive rights. Always playing the long game, that one.
I guess it makes sense that a smarmy professional Christian is a GOP congressional leader. That shtick is always in play.