Russia Attempts to Collect Its Winnings
Russia has been engaged in a good deal of dick-wagging with Trump since the election.
After Trump won, Russia did not call to congratulate — at least as far as we know (though Viktor Orbán seems to be Trump’s handler and he did).
Putin did, on Thursday, butter up Trump, calling his response to being shot courageous and claiming interest in a deal. Putin did what he always does with Trump: he played to his narcissism.
On Friday, though, one of the most popular TV shows in Russia used a different approach (as made available by Julia Davis’ Russian Media Monitor) — airing Melania’s nude photos in the guise of noting that she was years ago photographed with a US seal, as if someone knew she would be First Lady.
Monday morning, WaPo published an exclusive claiming that in his first call with Putin, Trump warned Putin not to escalate in Ukraine.
During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe, said a person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
The two men discussed the goal of peace on the European continent and Trump expressed an interest in follow-up conversations to discuss “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon,” one of the people said.
In the aftermath of the claimed call, Russia escalated strikes.
Russia has also deployed 50,000 troops, including some from North Korea, to attempt to expel Ukraine from Kursk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday Russia has deployed nearly 50,000 troops to Kursk, the southern Russian region where Kyiv launched its surprise counteroffensive in the summer.
Ukrainian troops “continue to hold back” the “nearly 50,000-strong enemy group” in Kursk, Zelensky said in a post on Telegram after receiving a briefing from General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Kyiv launched its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August, taking by surprise not just Moscow, but also its allies. It said at the time, that the operation was necessary, because Russia had been planning to launch a new attack on Ukraine from the region. It said it was aiming to create a “buffer zone” to prevent future cross-border attacks.
The Kursk offensive, the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II, caught Moscow completely unprepared.
Meanwhile, Russia denied WaPo’s report. There was no call, Putin’s spox said. Putin has no plan to call.
“It is completely untrue. It is pure fiction; it is simply false information,” the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said when asked about the call. “There was no conversation.
“This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is being published now, sometimes even in fairly reputable publications.”
Peskov added that Putin had no specific plans to speak to Trump.
Peskov is probably lying. But the US can’t debunk him because (according to WaPo) Trump is, once again, going it alone.
Trump’s initial calls with world leaders are not being conducted with the support of the State Department and U.S. government interpreters. The Trump transition team has yet to sign an agreement with the General Services Administration, a standard procedure for presidential transitions. Trump and his aides are distrustful of career government officials following the leaked transcripts of presidential calls during his first term. “They are just calling [Trump] directly,” one of the people familiar with the calls said.
Later in the day, Nicholay Patrushev implied that Trump had made commitments to get elected — commitments he was obliged to keep.
In his future policies, including those on the Russian track US President-elect Donald Trump will rely on the commitments to the forces that brought him to power, rather than on election pledges, Russian presidential aide Nikolay Patrushev told the daily Kommersant in an interview.
“The election campaign is over,” Patrushev noted. “To achieve success in the election, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. As a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”
He agreed that Trump, when he was still a candidate, “made many statements critical of the destructive foreign and domestic policies pursued by the current administration.”
“But very often election pledges in the United States can [d]iverge from subsequent actions,” he recalled.
Republican Donald Trump outperformed the candidate from the ruling Democratic Party, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the US elections held on November 5. Trump will take office on January 20, 2025. During the election campaign Trump mentioned his peace-oriented, pragmatic intentions, including in relations with Russia.
Trump is going to be a tool of Russia. In one of his first personnel moves, he humiliatingly killed Mike Pompeo’s bid to be Defense Secretary; Pompeo, like Nikki Haley, supports Ukraine. Reportedly Trump made that decision with the counsel of Don Jr — Trump’s soft-underbelly — and Tucker Carlson.
My guess is their primary concern is when he will do that.
He promised to deliver peace on Day One. Seven days later, he hasn’t delivered, nor said he would. The shape of the capitulation Trump is discussing — basically a freeze of the status quo and a withdrawal of funding for Ukraine — is far less ambitious than what Russia intends, which is to conquer all of Ukraine.
While Trump has appointed white nationalists — Tom Homan and Stephen Miller — to run his mass deportation program, his national security appointments, thus far, were once normal people before they capitulated to Trump: Elise Stefanik at UN Ambassador, Mike Waltz at National Security Adviser, Marco Rubio at Secretary of State, and Kristi Noem at Homeland Security (it’s unclear who thinks will manage the House as it awaits special elections to replace two newly elected members; the GOP will win the majority but with a thinner margin than they had).
But Patrushev is correct: Russia did, overtly, help Trump win, and there may have been far more useful covert assistance we don’t know. Early in the year, they set up yet another attack on Hunter Biden as a way to attack his father. They released a series of videos targeting Harris and manufacturing claims about migrants voting. Those videos likely involved John Mark Dougan, a former Palm Beach sheriff who fled to Russia in 2016. While it’s not yet clear whether bomb threats to Springfield, OH and on voting locations were from Russia, they were routed via a Russian email domain.
A far bigger question is whether the decision by a bunch of tech oligarchs, most notably Elon Musk, to support Trump came with the involvement of someone either formally working for or just actin as an epic useful idiot of Russia. Did Trump install JD Vance as part of a deal for support from Elon? And what should we take from all the Russophile nutjobs that Trump plans to install in his administration?
To a great degree, Trump will be opening up his Administration to Russia, and doing so via wildly ignorant or crazy people. Russia will get what it wants under a Trump Administration. It just might take awhile.
So why the dick-wagging?
Probably, Russia is engaging in this game for two reasons. First, while the infusion of North Korean soldiers has helped its cause and it is making advances in Ukraine, it is doing so at great cost. And Ukraine still manages some attacks deeper in Russia.
An average of around 1,500 Russian soldiers were killed or injured per day in October — Russia’s worst month for casualties since the beginning of the invasion, according to Britain’s Chief of the Defense Staff Tony Radakin.
“Russia is about to suffer 700,000 people killed or wounded — the enormous pain and suffering that the Russian nation is having to bear because of [President Vladimir] Putin’s ambition,” Radakin told the BBC on November 10.
Moscow does not reveal the number of its war casualties.
Radakin claimed Moscow was spending more than 40 percent of public expenditure on defense and security, putting “an enormous strain” on the country.
Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on November 10 that its forces had captured the town of Voltchenka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces have been making advances in recent weeks.
Ukraine launched dozens of drones targeting Moscow, forcing the temporary closure of three of the capital’s airports, Russian officials said on November 10.
With Trump’s victory, Russia is in a strong position, but it faces immediate challenges. So it would prefer, I’m sure, immediate action.
More importantly, Russia has a history with Trump, where he deferred action until he was inaugurated, and then failed to deliver.
Robert Mueller never charged Trump with entering into a quid pro quo in 2016. It may have happened, but would have required the cooperation of people Trump later pardoned to prove it. But Russia had every reason to expect that Trump might end sanctions and recognize Crimea after he was elected with their help the first time. During that transition, Russia did reach out to Trump, first with a congratulatory Putin call, and then with discussions via Mike Flynn.
On December 29, 2016, Flynn reached out to Sergey Kislyak and asked Russia to do no more than match Barack Obama’s sanction, so as not to set off an escalation. At that point, Russia undoubtedly had every expectation they’d see sanctions removed. Instead, over the course of the Administration, more were imposed, with Biden adding an entire new sanctions regime in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.
That is, Trump has a history of making commitments to Russia he didn’t deliver, couldn’t deliver after installing grown-ups in his Administration.
So Russia appears to be doing what every other entity that helped Trump get elected is doing, as they try to collect on their support: exerting what levers of pressure they have to get their objectives.
It turns out they likely have more levers of pressure — some of which are more powerful now, before Trump’s win is certified — and larger demands than most of the people who helped Trump get elected.
Trump proved unreliable in 2016. Russia has good reason to want to demand better this time around.
A larger question flows from your analysis: what exactly does Putin want and when?
Is it simple quid pro quo, as was likely the case in 2016, or has Putin’s need for speed (the war for Ukraine is verycostly) n assessment of the situation here (that he might be able to precipitate a US civil war the Trump victory n Harris concession avoided) opened his eyes to wider possibilities?
What’s better for Putin, ending sanctions (or other quo) OR a US civil war arising from revalations that Trump won due to Russian meddling?
He wants to end the Western order. Anything less will be a disappointment.
The focus of much post Trump victory analysis is domestic – what will Trump do to America?
Nothing stops a President Trump from ordering seal team 6 to kill Putin, who may now be seen to have outlived his usefullness.
Putin’s dog has caught the US car.
As a dictator Putin knows how they think. Trump, and a much younger Vance backed by US tech oligarchs, are but a few months away from taking awesome, mostly unchecked power.
What will they do with it?
That’s quite true and perfectly normal for someone who is an unreconstructed KGB officer. Any estimate of Putin needs to consider that motivation first.
He’s got a lot in common with Ali Khamenei of Iran
The Trump campaign discreetly announce, last summer, that it would accept bitcoin contributions. What better simili currency than the Bitcoin to avoid international sanctions? Trump said that he would end the war on the Bitcoin by a tweet the following day of his victory (abolish the meager set of rules) What do you think will happen to the US dollar? Putin will have one of his rewards then by destabilising the US economy without lifting a finger.
Further thoughts flowing from your very welcome analysis.
Putin is not strong, he is weak. A status quo end at current lines in Ukraine is insufficient, he needs its economy.
I suspect Trump’s trifecta win changes minds on both sides here.
US based Putin conspirators might now be wondering what to do w complete control of the greatest miltary the world has seen. Why help Putin, especially if US checks n balances no longer exist.
Why not topple Putin n take their resources under the guise of IMF support?
Why should US Christian Nationalists, long desirous of a dictatorship, not act like dictators do n conquer.
What have these anti US Democratic forces unleashed?
It is said that Trump found Obama’s roasting at the WH Correspondent’s Dinner so humiliating, that it pushed him to run for President.
Remember the private meeting in Helsinki, from which Putin emerged looking like the cat that ate the canary, and Trump looked like a whipped dog? I’ll bet Trump remembers.
No doubt the Trump campaign was assisted by Russia in various ways, and the campaign would have known it. They took the help, and Putin may have expected payback. But Trump doesn’t always pay his bills. He also often turns on former allies and supporters.
Whatever kompromat Putin has on Trump, for Trump to fear it, it would have to be so bad that his Electors vote for someone else on December 14. At this point, that seems hard to imagine; his followers have proven they will swallow anything so far.
Trump is all about dominance and humiliation, and he has strong feral instincts. I’d say that he considers both Putin and Musk* to be competitors for Top Dog.
And you know what? There are any number of terrific locations in Crimea that would be ideal for development. It wouldn’t surprise me if Zelensky mentions that at some point.
*Heads up to Elon, have you ever heard the expression, “Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer”? You are an illegal immigrant with vast riches, including control of companies highly relevant to national security. Be a shame if you were deported, your accounts frozen, and your property taken by eminent domain.
This kind of worm-turning seems not only possible, but likely. Trump never passes up a chance to advance his own interests or assert dominance and he will be in the position on January 20 to say to all of his creditors, both financial and political, “So, sue me.” With the powers of the U.S. military and the instrumentality of U.S. foreign policy at his disposal and nothing that he is aware of that can constrain his executive power in any way, why would he not push it to the max? He needn’t call attention to past humiliations by flaunting his revenge. He long ago learned the value of enormous indebtedness: the debtor whose default would be catastrophic for the creditor gets to call the tune. Further, what he bought with what he borrowed is a position with the power to virtually declare those debts null and void. He has trapped them all. As for the Russians, the value of whatever they have on him has evaporated: he cannot be embarrassed or shamed or tossed out of office.
Two word answer: nuclear war
In the past couple of years, the New Age sphere has changed the Maya Calendar from December 2012 to “well acktually, it was beginning of 12 year cycle until December 2024 when the real Age of Aquarius will occur”.
And that there is a one in a million year, defining cosmic event with stars aligning, yada yada, in December 2024.
I’ve seen that community be prepped by the Patriot/Jan 6 movements for the Great Awakening to require political violence.
Combine that with the December 2024 prophecy, I have expected that a Russian nuclear strike would couple with some sort of co-opting the New Agers to excuse it as part of the destined galactic shift.
That talk has died down over 2024, haven’t seen much recently. I was expecting it to tie in with the next Jan 6 or December 11 certification at the state level.
My thought was to take out Putin, not go to war with Russia.
Would Russia launch nukes if Putin died or was killed?
Russia is in dire straights now. Putin is their problem.
The answer is, of course, both.
Putin wants two interrelated things. He wants the return of greatness to Mother Russia, and he wants the diminishment or dissolution of the Western alliance. As I noted a couple of days ago, Putin was devastated by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the splintering of the Russian empire that was the USSR. He wants that back (not the communism, but the empire).
And he wants it badly.
Agreed.
And what would be worse for Putin than an institutionally minded Biden seeking to reassert US post WW2 norms?
A return to US foreign policy thinking from the Gilded Age would be much worse for him.
Back then the constraint was the lack of a world dominating military. That constraint no longer exists.
Was listening to Col. Wilkerson last night noting the widespread Christian Nationalism in the US military.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br_xcGgoXio&t=425s
Imagine a Douglas MacArthur like military leader (Mike Flynn perhaps) bent on a crusade to make the world safe for the American brand of Christianity.
Hitler was able to maintain domestic control and set up and maintain his concentration camps because he was conquering.
If the US Republic is going to die it will not be replaced by a Dark Age, it will be replaced by a Pax Americana led by a dictator.
And Americans will cheer that while select groups are deported or killed.
The Russian empire was past its peak long before Putin was born, and it was never as powerful as he was taught.
As compromised as (asset) Trump was/is with his Russian entanglements, he should never have been allowed to be a candidate, in order to prevent his win and Russia’s win over our country. Never.
But, now we are here.
x.com/jimstewartson/status/1856090161034953126
If the @TheDemocrats want to go down swinging they MUST INSIST that every single county that got a Russian bomb threat be hand recounted.
That is foreign election interference. Period. Full top. You don’t need to prove a hack or Starlink or any of that.
#Recount2024
Last edited 3:42 PM – Nov 11, 2024
Who knows what’s going on behind the scenes? But need to look carefully at the vote.
Hopefully Biden adm has considered the possibility that the electoral vote count and/or inauguration will have violence directed at Dems
We only have 70 days with power. We need to use it to save ourselves, each other, our democracy and our country,
#recount2024
https://www.mind-war.com/p/70-days
70 Days
Is weakness and capitulation going to be the legacy of the Democrats?
JIM STEWARTSON
“And you’re worried about regrouping for 2028.
“You left us to the wolves.
“Do we not see a problem with the fact that the people behind Donald Trump paying for everything, whispering in his ear, are all foreign-born oligarchs–Putin, the Saudis, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel.
“These are going to be the people who dismantle the 250-year-old experiment in democracy.
“America is going to be a pile of resources and labor for them to exploit.
“You have 70 days to look in the mirror, see what you have done, and take all necessary measures.
“The President of the United States has the power to be Paul Hindenburg in 1933 or Abraham Lincoln in 1860.
“We all know the choice he has made, the terrible choice that we will all pay for.
“Nevertheless, if there is anyone out there with the guts to say what this is and do something about it, this would be a great time.”
#recount2024
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I have read that Biden has had his administration make plans in case of violence.
It is natural to think of the western democracies versus these illiberal tendencies (Putin, Orban, Bibi, MBS, Trump) in two very distinct groups. But what they really want is unshakable lasting power, absence of regulations and meaningful rule of law, and wild jungle concentration of capital. At some point an adversarial relationship between these illiberal countries is unavoidable. It’s not like it’s all kumbaya once they beat the hell out of liberal democracies. They are not going to be friends forever. But what form will these future conflicts take?
Putin has a lot of levers with which to move Trump, both carrots and sticks.
Flattery, of course, goes a long way with Trump, as does an appeal to his greed. For example . . . “You know, Mr. President, that sanctions have created havoc with our economy, which also creates some very interesting opportunities for investing in the New Russia. You have long dreamed of building Trump Tower Moscow, and such a dream would be substantially cheaper today because of the economic climate. Of course, before that could happen, the sanctions would have to be removed . . .”
But playing on Trump’s fears are equally, if not more, effective. Trump worries about how he is perceived, especially perceptions of being a failure, a loser, or otherwise ineffective. For example . . . “You know, Mr. President, that our very quiet support was critical for victory. We created the climate that tore down your opponent’s support, that undermined her appeal and her coalition. You have seen what we can do, when you look at Europe, where government after government has fallen because of our efforts. Now imagine what would happen if we revealed some of our efforts that put you back in the White House. You would appear weak. You would appear to be a loser who had to be rescued. . . .”
The other thing to keep in mind is that Putin likewise can exert pressure on various folks around Trump — people like Mike Flynn and Paul Manafort, for example. “You need to make sure that Mr. Trump follows through on what he has promised. To encourage you to do this, need we remind you of a few things you have done for us in the past?”
Putin is, at heart, an intelligence officer, and he understands the carrots and sticks of the spy world. Just look at the infamous Helsinki press conference. That’s how Putin operates, and with respect to Trump and those around him, it works.
And he knows it works.
Trump is compromised, he and Putin know this. Yes Trump is a prisoner of his ego and his morbid narcissism. How he “appears” is very important to him. I mean, all that hair doctoring and makeup is only the start. He wants to appear to appear be the strongman at the same time. Proof he’s crazy. Putin plays with him like a cat with a mouse. At any moment Putin can kill him, figuratively speaking.
But why kill a useful idiot?
Putin is deliberately humiliating Trump. Russian state tv even showed Melania’s nude pictures (only the GQ not the racier Max Magazine ones) while the presenters laughed.
Trump deals with anything unflattering or exposing his weakness as fake news. He also expects something upfront and in return for anything he does. It seems likely to me that he’s planning on selling protection – it’s interesting, if true, that he mentioned to Putin US troops in Europe.
Regarding Trump Tower Moscow: Trump knows he got jerked around on this deal, and that’s another grievance he might want to settle.
Putin’s behavior, this far, makes me think this wasn’t how it was supposed to play out for him. I agree with EW, he wanted utter destruction of the US and now. Quite possibly, that’s not going to happen right now.
Which makes me think there’s a larger Trump benefactor at play, one which may even be able to neutralize Putin.
Agreed.
I suspect Putin wanted a divided US. He wanted more Jan 6s. He wanted the US weak, not strong.
Putin may not have gotten more Jan6s, but he certainly has received a US that is more divided and more weak.
Is it really?
The only constraint on Trump once inaugurated is domestic opposition. He will control all levers of Gov’t power.
If Trump proceeds to crush the US economy while deporting or killing migrants in concentration camps that dissent will grow.
If Trump does what all dictators tend to do, conquer, how much domestic dissent will there be?
We have elected a mob boss POTUS and given him the greatest extortion machine ever made.
drop the A – Make America Great – not like it was but like it could be without checks and balances
@Peter
Putin also wants NATO and Europe divided.
The election of Trump assists both of those objectives, not least. by emboldening Orbán and Serbia.
Putin has very serious near-term problems. The Central Bank will likely raise prime rates from the current 21% to 23% in December. Although Russia reports inflation at about 9%, reported changes in food prices indicate true inflation already at or above 23%.
But Chemezov, the head of the state-owned arms manufacturer Rostec has called for the removal of Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank. He wants far lower interest rates and if he gets his way this is a recipe for hyper-inflation.
Putin will have to choose between arms procurement (the acquired Soviet stockpiles are now badly depleted) or avoiding hyper-inflation. Not a pretty picture.
And all the infrastructure that requires Western maintenance-which is much of it-is falling apart.
Yeah, that’s one thing I was alluding to. He can wait out Trump but may have a major crisis on his hands in the meantime.
Putin’s goal is the return of greatness to Mother Russia and thus his place in Russian history, To achieve that he needs the breakup of NATO, specifically separating USA’s participation and support. Trump’s attempt previously to work towards that had been a milquetoast effort complaining about other NATO members not paying their fair share of the costs. If he sticks with that there is the opportunity for other NATO members to call his bluff and negotiate costs and diffuse that argument. Financial support for the Ukraine war are loans supported by frozen Russian assets so arguing costs again is weak. Putin at 72 is starting to run out of time to get what he wants so Trump is under immense pressure both politically and personally..
I have NO doubt that at this time, the primary work of the current administration is
to batten down the hatches on the USSUS as well as possible. We are in for rough seas.
Rough China Seas, indeed harpie.
Just wait until Xi Jinping sends a warning shot over our bow.
Putin has more leverage than you think.
Speaking of China, it was successful in hacking attorney Todd Blanche. It also targeted Trump, Vance, Kushner and Eric Trump. I am unclear on whether or not any of those were successful, though.
And Trump attorney Lindsey Halligan was targeted by Iran.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/politics/trump-attorney-phone-tapped-chinese-hackers/index.html
Things happen in the world. All of the events that occur make up “facts”, but facts aren’t history. History is the story we tell about it. When the thing happening is an action of a powerful leader, it makes history implicitly. Putin is a phenomenological propagandist in that generally, I believe, the factitious dimension is never as important as the expressive dimension, the nature of the event as a message, such as in terrorism, where the World Trade Center destruction had no military significance. However, the meaning of it, the sense of the event as an expression, the “message of history” was so profound it changed the social state in America and pulled us into terror.
A naked picture of Trump’s wife on state TV in Russia means something. I think even here we are interpreting this the way Putin knows we will. We are using our scripts and schemas, but it’s not a message to Trump, I think, but a message to us, just like Trump’s election itself. Now that Trump is elected, why should hinterland American yokels have a good opinion of Vladimir Putin? We need to be conditioned to start hating Russia again. War is the formation of the fascist state because it destroys the individual. War is sacrificial spectacle to the fascist terrorist, and because of the nuclear threat, a war between Russia and the United States would be an endless carnography allowing both regimes to maintain the terror state in themselves and the other. America has always been at war with Russia. The “sacrifice of the Other” is the foundation ritual of the fascist terror state. I think Putin’s idea of victory (and China too) are three fascist oligarchies in Orwellian equilibrium and the death of history. I think for Trump and Putin to “fall out” shows this is Putin’s next step for victory.
So we should read the photos of a naked Melania as if was a significantly laid Tarot card enabling us to divine what message it conveys as to the next twist in the arc of history?
And the cards tell you : the Death of History?!?
I stepped up on the platform
The man gave me the news
He said, you must be joking son
Where did you get those shoes?
Where did you get those shoes?
Well, I’ve seen ’em on the TV, the movie show
They say the times are changing but I just don’t know
These things are gone forever
Over a long time ago, oh yeah
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UBxZFadp9Pw
Pretzel Logic
I have never met Napoleon
But I plan to find the time, yes, I do
‘Cause he looks so fine upon that hill
They tell me he was lonely, he’s lonely still
Those days are gone forever
Over a long time ago, oh yeah
Strange that Trump would “warn” Putin not to “escalate” in Ukraine. I guess we no longer have a “one president” policy.
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I liked the OP. I agree with the consensus on what Putin wants. The missing element here is my sense that a year from now Trump will not be president. He will retire/resign and Vance will be president. He will leave in a big show of adulation. He will take a victory lap or 10, but he will leave. Then we see how Vance handles things.
Why do I think this? At some of his last rallies, he seemed to be saying goodbye. He wants to win. He doesn’t want to *be* president. He’s old, and wants to spend more time playing golf, or just taking “executive time”.
It’s hard to work that into this discussion, which quite reasonably assumes Trump will stay in office. I’m just not sure that’s what is going to happen.
Trump is a malignant narcissist. His constant craving is to supply his narcissism and so avoid the vortex where his soul should be. He wants to ‘be’ President just like he wants to ‘be’ a champion golfer and all the other things that makes him the centre of attention for ever. He doesn’t want to do the job of being President, just as he cheats at golf to be champion.
He will never ever ever voluntarily ‘abdicate’ from being the greatest living person and most important man in the world. And there is no person or body of people who will ever persuade him otherwise. My bet is that His ambition is to be hailed President for Life as a just reward for his gift to the American people.
yep…he loves the show and the pageantry… he likes people genuflecting when he enters the room…calling him sir and mr president…unlike Putin, he likes the appearance of power more than he actually likes power…that’s one of the few things that saves the rest of us from utter destruction
He wants the power, he just believes it simply emanates from him — he declassifies documents just by thinking about it. And the purpose of his flunkies, advisors, lawyers are to anticipate his instincts needs and whims, fighters for him, such that he can be the ultimate decider—which is what power is about, as far as he’s concerned. He loves people competing for his approval and approbation, because that’s loyalty that’s love that’s respect. Work is paying attention long enough to calculate the advantage to him, seeing the angle, sizing up the pay-off, being the genius.
Actually, he might become “President for Life” in a way he doesn’t like.
Vance and Thiel should be on his list. Leonard Leo too.
You may be right but It might be better to have an incompetent disorganized mind at the helm that can’t find an iceberg in the Arctic.
The request by The Convicted Felon to Putin to avoid escalation drew my attention because it was a strategic request, which is odd for a person who does everything transactionally, lacking any principles.
Was TCF telling Putin to avoid escalating in Ukraine, which could provoke the EU and EU nations into a stronger reaction? While Americans might not care about foreign Nazis taking over other nations, I think that other nations care about American Nazis taking over America.
Alternatively, was this just TCF being cheap and not wanting to pay back any promises he doesn’t have to, such as demanding explicitly pro-Russia votes at the start of the administration?
There’s nothing strategic about that request – Putin is in no position to escalate. Anyway, we don’t really know what he said to Putin. That’s the point of this pantomime.
Oh I think NK committing troops and more to a war in Ukraine is definitely an escalation.
SKorea are nervous about what that means for them in the future.
So at the very least are considering how to best assist Ukraine.
And China will not want the Cold War in Korean Peninsula to become a hot war.
Several thousand NK troops that russian soldiers are complaining won’t go on meat assaults Is not an escalation.
Reply to kpavlovic
November 12, 2024 at 6:16 pm
It’s not an escalation of the war on Ukraine as much as it is an escalation of tensions between client states’ sponsors. Let’s not pretend this doesn’t put a squeeze on client state South Korea as well as larger power PRC.
I thought Trump’s request to Putin not to escalate (if such a request was, in fact, made) was just for domestic consumption: Trump asserting his primacy over Biden and letting his followers know that he is already on his way to fixing the Ukraine war. Putin then wanted to let Trump and his own people know that Putin wasn’t taking orders from Trump.
It may be that the introduction of Musk and the Tech Bros into the mix has thrown a monkey wrench into Putin’s plans. Musk may not be as easily manipulable as Trump. Musk has no problem kissing Putin’s hand to obtain certain results in Russia but long term probably doesn’t want to be Putin’s boy. I don’t think Musk bought Trump just to trade one master for another.
There is more than one intended audience for the current theater going on for both Putin and Trump – domestic and international.
And, while Putin is exceedingly clever, he made a horrible mistake in assessing that Ukraine would fold like a cheap tent.
I think the calculus for Trump has changed significantly since his last term. Putin has no sticks, only carrots. Any kompromat Putin has is useless. Trump doesn’t need votes anymore; he knows that no matter how many times he’s impeached, the Senate won’t convict him; he can’t be prosecuted during his term; he won’t be prosecuted after his term; most people don’t seem to give a shit about what he does with top secret information; most people don’t seem to give a shit about Russian interference with our elections; and on and on and on. What could Putin have? Pee tapes? “Deep fakes”, as is any other audio or video recordings. A detailed paper trail showing massive bribes in the past? Good luck with that. Hell, you could have iron-clad evidence that he’s a traitor. The guy caused an insurrection, and he wasn’t punished and was even reelected with a popular vote.
Putin only has carrots, and at this point, the only things that are carrots for Trump are money and groveling at his feet just to kiss his ass. Ukraine will win out there, because the military/industrial complex likely has more money for bribes, and both Zelensky and billionaire CEOs have already groveled at his feet and kissed his ass.
Anything Putin has done for Trump in the past is just an unpaid debt. Good luck getting any payback there, either.
I think that severely misunderestimates the resources and creativity of a former Lt. Col. in the KGB and former head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
Putin has already issued orders to retake the Kursk region before Trump is inaugurated so he can remove trading Russian territory for Ukrainian territory from potential negotiations:
https://english.nv.ua/nation/putin-orders-recapture-of-kursk-oblast-by-trump-s-inauguration-report-50465641.html
That isn’t going well.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/12/2285411/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-suffering-huge-casualties-in-Kursk
(quaoar is one of those who is following Ukraine’s war.)
Well, if that’s so, that was a really stupid order. It smells of desperation.
I believe the original order was to recapture Kursk by October 1.
It’s an interesting balance. On one hand, Trump is a Putin/Xi/Kim Jong Un/Turkish Fraternity Pledge.
OTOH he never keeps his promises.
Ha! Good point
For anyone who hadn’t collected the set, these are still available on the SSCI site.
RUSSIAN ACTIVE MEASURES CAMPAIGNS AND INTERFERENCE IN THE 2016 U.S. ELECTION
REPORT
VOLUMES I-V TOGETHER WITH ADDITIONAL VIEWS
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/publications/report-select-committee-intelligence-united-states-senate-russian-active-measures
All in one PDF (72.7 MB), not searchable
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/publications/CRPT-116srpt290.pdf
72.7 MB, 1348 pgs
Separate volumes, all searchable:
VOLUME 1: RUSSIAN EFFORTS AGAINST ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume1.pdf
24.5 MB, 67 pgs
VOLUME 2: RUSSIA’S USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume2.pdf
7.3 MB, 85 pgs
VOLUME 3: U.S. GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO RUSSIAN ACTIVITIES
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume3.pdf
4.4 MB, 54 pgs
VOLUME 4: REVIEW OF THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume4.pdf
27.6 MB, 158 pgs
Volume 4, Additional Declassifications, July 2020
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume4_Excerpt.pdf
3.0 MB, 11 pgs
VOLUME 5: COUNTERINTELLIGENCE THREATS AND VULNERABILITIES
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/report_volume5.pdf
51.2 MB, 966 pgs
Additional material:
Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”:
The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ICA_2017_01.pdf
1.6 MB, 25 pgs
Russian Targeting of Election Infrastructure During the 2016 Election:
Summary of Initial Findings and Recommendations
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/publications/RussRptInstlmt1.pdf
0.5 MB, 6 pgs
Which does bring to mind that one can wonder as to the influence of SoS-to-be “little Marco” on this apparent decision of Trump to slow walk (or outright skip on) any repayment of political debts to Putin et al. Especially if Trump declares the tariff war on China then he’s going to need the EU/EEC as trading partners to keep the US boat afloat. Also, I gotta agree that Trump recalls Putin humiliating him in Helsinki and that may require payback — a true strongman cannot be made to appear weak, not by anyone (e.g. other strongmen).
Russia will be very happy. Trump has selected another superior toadie for head of the CIA, John Ratcliffe.
A quote from The Hill: “A statement from Trump praises Ratliffe for “exposing fake Russian collusion to be a Clinton campaign operation,” being a critic of a national security program that greenlights foreign surveillance, and for criticizing those who first called into question the legitimacy of a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden.”
the better news source:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-john-ratcliffe-be-cia-director-2024-11-12/
Here’s to hoping that something will be revealed in the coming weeks that will be so disqualifying that even Republicans on the hill will move towards a Nixon moment.
OT: I called it.
https://www.lpm.org/news/2024-11-12/louisville-mayor-wont-commit-to-signing-lmpd-consent-decree-ahead-of-trump-inauguration
Dr. Wheeler reposted this on bluesky about the Trump administration killing off the Voting Rights Act:
https://bsky.app/profile/audrelawdamercy.bsky.social/post/3larstllkdk2z
Certainly it seems that Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg is going to help the Trumpian project of killing the DoJ Civil Rights division in advance of inauguration. Just absolutely brutal.