The Upcoming Pardon-Palooza
Just about everyone has a story out about how Trump’s win will make most of his legal trouble go away (see Brandi Buchman, Politico, NYT).
I don’t disagree with any of this analysis. His federal cases will end shortly after January 20 (though DOJ may want to pursue the 11th Circuit Appeal to sustain the viability of Special Counsels).
But I don’t know how they will go away. After all, Jack Smith could indict everyone, so as to tell the fuller story of what Trump did. If Democrats manage to take the House, he could hand off his grand jury material between January 3 and January 20. For all we know, he’s got sealed indictments hidden somewhere, obtained during the pre-election quiet period. Or he could write a final report.
Which is why I’m more interested in the other immediate legal question: Whom he pardons as soon as he returns to office.
By pardoning the January 6 defendants who are either in prison or awaiting trial, surely including seditionists like Enrique Tarrio and Stewart Rhodes, Trump would create an army of loyal Brown Shirts ready to do his bidding again. These guys only believe in Backing the Blue if it doesn’t interfere with a coup attempt.
If Rudy Giuliani gets held in contempt for dicking around with the Ruby Freeman payments, Trump can simply pardon him out of prison again.Poof!
I expect that Trump will pardon Alexander Smirnov, who allegedly attempted to criminally frame Joe Biden in circumstances that Trump likely would like to keep quiet (not like it matters anyway because the press never showed any curiosity about how that happened).
And Trump has an incentive to pardon other corrupt grifters. I would be unsurprised if he pardoned Robert Menendez and Henry Cuellar — and the latter might have an incentive to switch parties if he were pardoned out of his trouble.
I would be shocked if Trump didn’t pardon Eric Adams, which would create an ally in New York City who controls a mob of corrupt cops and former cops.
All that said, Trump can’t pardon his co-conspirators out of their state cases (Fani Willis won reelection in Fulton County). He can’t pardon Steve Bannon out of his upcoming NY trial … though I am certain that they are plotting on a way for Bannon to avoid it.
In Trump’s first term, he pardoned his way out of his Russian trouble. He paid no price for it. It barely came up in the campaign … journalists were too busy talking about Joe Biden’s stutter.
Trump’s own impunity will do grave damage to the rule of law, however it happens.
But these pardons will turn it into a transactional form of loyalty test.
Update: I should add that Mike Davis, who will play a key role in Trump’s Administration (including, possibly, Attorney General if he could be confirmed), already taunted Jack Smith to lawyer up.
Update: Trump is also likely to pardon the guys who were prosecuted for insider trading on Truth Social.
Update: Other candidates for pardons might include Ghislaine Maxwell and Diddy.
Update: Multiple outlets are reporting that Jack Smith will wind down his two prosecutions of Trump. It seems there are multiple options to do this — the most obvious being a public report and referrals of anything else, like Mueller did. But by announcing they’re doing this, they may pre-empt Trump making demands, just like they did in August.
Technical question: can Jack Smith just refuse to resign and keep investigating until he’s fired?
Yes.
Trump will fire him, it will go to scotus, and scotus will approve it.
Then (or in parallel) Trump’s AG will investigate and prosecute him.
Couldn’t Biden pardon Smith now?
If personnel is policy was Dick Cheney’s mantra for governing, vindictiveness and retribution are Donald Trump’s. He will order his new inexperienced US AG to fire Smith, and they will, as the first order of business. Smith may decide that discretion is the better part of valor and resign beforehand. There will be no role for the S.Ct. to play.
And yet, his work can be defunded, right?
Courage and hope should never die.
Hear hear.
Yep. It’ll be pardons galore, and say bye bye to NATO. Putin is dancing a bloody jig.
I cannot believe that I’m witnessing the unfolding of this monstrosity. I guess I’ll stop here since I come here to read, not write. Jhfc
Genuine question: do you think Jack Smith and his prosecutorial team should worry about their safety? I see a lot of the opinion pieces on how Trump is going to have him fired/removed, but I can’t help but wonder if he’s going to stupidly try to do more than that. Do you think that would be an actual possibility?
That’s why he has Brown Shirts.
DOJ has been worried about their safety for quite a while. From Politico on Jan 5, 2024:
More at the link.
I’m concerned about the safety of our most trusted sources on this site.
Marcy is the most visible but it seems his rage and vindictiveness is bottomless and he has a crew seeking out and locating anyone who documented and reported the facts about his crimes etc.
I hope the ew team is safe and protected and free from harm. As well as the journalists who contribute to our collective understanding.
Please take care.
Most run-of-the-mill assistant county prosecutors carry and/own guns for safety reasons, much less a high-profile Special Counsel like Jack Smith.
Which is why it was very strange to me that people seemed somehow surprised at Kamala’s admission to gun ownership.
Not just Mike Davis. Lyndsey Graham as well and there are likely a host of other jerks playing Follow the Schmuck:
“Dear Jack,Time to think about pursuing another career,” to paraphrase, “you should plan to spend quality time with family real soon.”
And so it begins:
“It is time to look forward to a new chapter in your legal careers as these politically motivated charges against President Trump hit a wall,” Graham wrote.
“The supreme court substantially rejected what you were trying to do, and after tonight, it’s clear the American people are tired of lawfare. Bring these cases to an end. The American people deserve a refund.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/lindsey-graham-trump-scotus-jack-smith
and proceeding post-haste:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf–PyND5TU
DOJ moving to wind down Trump criminal cases before he takes office
The step complies with long-standing Justice Department policy that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted, two people familiar with the matter told NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/doj-moving-wind-trump-criminal-cases-takes-office-rcna178930
Nov. 6, 2024, 1:17 PM EST Ken Dilanian and Laura Jarrett
If you’re going to quote supine Trump enabler, Li’l Lindsey Graham, you might want to characterize his posture, so readers can more easily evaluate his demands and purpose.
Marcy writes about this here:
When Special Counsels Finish Up, They Must Write Reports https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/11/06/when-special-counsels-finish-up-they-must-write-reports/ November 6, 2024
Of course Jack Smith should be worried about his safety. Trump and company is power drunk, vindictive and with a grudge to settle. The Supreme Court Jesters have decreed that Trump is above the law and there is nothing to stop him.
One interesting twist on all this is that Trump made the terrible (but likely forced) mistake of selecting a VP that is more desirable than himself to the specific elites that backed him. His impulse control is non-existent, he will want to issue pardons that he thinks will help him almost immediately. I strongly suspect he’ll be egged on to issue almost all of his pardons early on, which would remove any of the last politically inconvenient tasks Vance would need to do if something unfortunate should happen.
Totally agree. He will go on his pardon and retribution spree, line up lucrative contracts with foreign powers and then retire.
And if the Republicans do get control of both houses of Congress, it will be much sooner than later is my guess. The GOP powerbrokers have seen in ’20 and even ’22 to an extent what CAN happen. They will not want to waste a day of the two years of unified control of the federal government on trivial distractions of the kind Trump always brings.
Today, that is kind of what I think too. But I’ll add cryptocurrency to his to do list. Being termed out is different from losing an election so I don’t think his ego will feel the need to stay President. Just getting out of prosecutions and money, money, money. I wonder how much of what he’s promised the extreme religious and the white supremists he will honor? I don’t think he needs to honor any of it anymore. I think the billionaire tech bros now have what Trump wants.
Let us not be consumed by fear. It will defeat us before we begin to resist tyranny. One man dumping tea in Boston Harbor, one man riding on a horse, a small group at Lexington, etc.,
is all it takes to begin a process against what seem impossible odds.
In our time, it doesn’t have to be violence against violent rhetoric, or threats from the Oligarch-in-Chief. We can be more creative in our resistance and processes for change.
It will take the creative energy of young people to come up with the means and the way.
The Soviet Union fell because of resistance. The Russians never had any experience with true democracy, when communism took over in 1917, so the fall, when it came in 1989, was total, because communism was a dead idea. We have an advantage. We know what freedom looks and tastes like. And, like the Russians, we are finding out what an Oligarchy is. Oligarchy will meet its end, as well.
The only questions are how long it will take and how much damage will be done.
“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”
— Thomas Jefferson
That quote is usually used as a rationale for right wing violence. Why are you using it?
I think the usual formulation in this century is something like “nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know.”
Trump v United States settled the question of whether Trump can pardon himself decisively, right? I’m sure someone has noted that before me. There’s a lot of smart folks around here.
Pardons for Ghislaine Maxwell and Diddy could be problematic for them, given that they each would face both criminal and civil cases but a pardon only addresses the criminal side of things. Further, because the pardon removes the threat of imprisonment, they would not be able to make a fifth amendment against self-incrimination.
If half of what Diddy is accused of doing is true, he will go to prison for the rest of his life, and that life could very well be shortened in there given the context. I suspect he would rather be broke and disgraced and humiliated in civil cases than face the chance of spending decades in almost solitary confinement conditions.
Or he’ll not kill himself in jail so another Trump AG can make sure that no powerful people’s names get released.
Why did no major news outlet pick up on Michael Wolffe’s release of Jeffrey Epstein tapes?
Because he had offered them to those outlets earlier and they had all refused.
Credibility issues with chain of custody?
Apologies for off topic, but I suppose this is as good a place as any…
What happens if Trump were to succumb to – let’s say – a fatal coronary before inauguration? Does Vance get inaugurated?
And NO I am NOT subtly advocating any kind of violence against Trump. A significant set people have to keep their decency while still fighting and resisting – and I mean that.
After the electoral college meets in December, it’s automatically Vance. Before they meet, it’s a dizzying list of uneven state laws that still pretty much all sum up to Vance.
Under the Roberts’ court ruling, does immunity apply to the Vice President’s actions or only the President’s?
The President.
Citing the SC immunity ruling, Bill Barr says the criming should begin now, not just wait until Trump’s in office.
Who is Biden going to pardon?
At this point, with the country deciding to award a dysfunctional party and even worse figurehead control of government, Hunter may as well be on that list given what he got put through
Agreed. After all Joe Biden has been through and has done for this country, a pardon for his son will be, in the short term, decried in the MSM as Biden crime family BS, in the long term, the pardon will be nothing but a footnote to a long career of outstanding public service.
Irrelevant.
I suppose he could give blanket pardons to Jack Smith and many other DOJ and FBI people involved in the Trump cases, yes?
I hope he commutes the death sentences of people on death row.
Would Biden pardoning his son potentially provide a basis to start, albeit somewhat retroactively, to counter trump’s ’facade of victimhood’ / Russia Russia Russia?
Agreed! It’s my understanding that he can commute those on death row convicted federally: 42 people. He can’t commute the over 2,000 people convicted by states. I’d like to be wrong on this.
The president has no power to pardon or commute sentences for state crimes, only federal crimes.
Once the pardons start rolling out, I hope someone starts a web site dedicated to just this subject, with suitable references linked to each and the ability to cluster those pardoned into groups of associated persons.
I’m not looking for partisan approach — just the plain facts and supporting background material.
(Variations of trumppardons.* are already registered — could be for purpose or for resale.)
This is another installment of Life’s not fair: Trump 2024 Edition.
Just so infuriating.
Yesterday, he voted while wearing his own stupid campaign hat. Committing a federal crime in broad daylight and no one even attempted to stop it. I didn’t even see a single person comment on it. Who cares?
It is all about impunity. And people love him because he gives them license to be an asshole with impunity.
Florida. Where the state government is run by the governor who is personally corrupt and an autocrat.
Folks, let’s stop kidding ourselves. The “great civil war testing whether this nation or any nation, so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure” has been lost. When we thought we won it in 1865, we allowed the other side to slither back into power. Do you think the likes of Thiel, Musk, Miller, Vance, the Project 2025 goons, not to mention Trump himself, and SCOTUS, etc., will make that mistake? I’m 77 and I see no way to avoid dying under fascism. I’m glad I retired from practicing law in 2015 before the rule of law was formally abrogated.
Hey, save the “Resistance is futile” stuff for your microblog which this is not.
I am not getting on my knees anytime soon and I do not appreciate anyone suggesting others should just throw in the towel.
Your comment suggests you retired from more than your profession.
I understand the exhausted cynicism. Vent and grieve today, for tomorrow we regroup.
Thank you, Rayne and thank you Earl.
Not being cute, but is there a country that became (significantly) fascist and returned to liberal democracy without a war?
Portugal, Greece. Transitions had little political violence
Spain experienced more violence with total of ~453 deaths attributed to political violence between 1975-80 https://charlespowell.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/The-Arab-Transitions-in-a-Changing-World_monografia11_Charles-Powell-1.pdf p44 fn 5
Spain pop 1980 37.9 m
So although any violence and death is to be regretted, compared to the slaughter from routine gun violence and school shootings etc in the US such a level of death hardly deserves to be called war.
I believe we have woken up this morning it what may be Germany in 1933.
I will also never give up or give in to these Fascists – and that is indeed what a majority of Americans voted for.
It certainly changes my plans for the next 3 years – either way the election went I have had a plan – barring a violent confrontation with a frothing MAGAt I will be okay; but I truly grieve for what will likely become of our social institutions once Musk, Thiel, Putin, Orbán et al start dismantling things for sale to the lickspittle, privateering class.
I grieve for my Nation.
Hang on and hang in there folks – going to be a rough next few years socially and a rough next few decades judicially. Joe Biden will be sorely tested on how to use his unchecked power and immunity over the next few months but I believe he will come through honorably.
Speaking of “a mob of corrupt cops and former cops,” there’s no doubt that Trump will pardon both Derek Chauvin and his accomplices, but also Brett Hankison, who was found guilty of violating Breonna Taylor’s civil rights just last weekend.
Reminder: a president can only pardon federal charges.
Chauvin, his accomplices, and Hankison were all convicted on federal charges by Merrick Garland’s DoJ. There was (in)famously not a state conviction of Hankison, and his federal conviction came in his second trial after the first trial’s jury did not come to a consensus.
Furthermore Garland better finish negotiating the consent decrees for Louisville and Minneapolis post haste. There is no doubt in my mind that there will no longer be a DoJ Civil Rights division after Trump’s second inauguration.
Trump cannot pardon Giuliani for a civil contempt jail term as that’s civil. Pardons are only for criminal matters.
No, but he can exert informal authority over the federal bankruptcy courts.
And of all the courts in the country, those he is the most personally familiar with their workings and limitations.
He could try, but not every one would go along with his “requests”. There are those who will always have integrity.
There is another kind of case I’m most afraid of: promising pardons for people that would do illegal things when following Trump’s orders.
You may claim Trump did it in his previous presidency already, but there were some guardrails, especially if it could be proven that there was a corrupt intent. The supreme court rules there is absolute immunity over Trump’s pardoning power. There could be no corrupt intent because it’s part of his constitutional power. He could, for example, order the military to arrest an opponent or quash a protest. The military commander would say “I can’t do it, it’s illegal”, and now Trump could always respond with “Don’t worry. If you ever get into trouble with the law, I’m going to pardon you”.
More: he can pre-emptively pardon. “Here’s your get-out-of-jail-free card. Now go do what I said.”
Geeze, people, stop. A president “cannot” issue preemptive pardons. He can only pardon federal crimes that have already occurred. Or, as in Nixon’s case, crimes that might have occurred. In all cases, it’s for past conduct. The clock starts over again for conduct that occurs after the effective date of the pardon.
The pardon’s scope is important. Trump played games issuing restrictive pardons his first time round. It’s a game designed to keep associates in check.
If the president has lots of time left in office, the distinction may be a technicality. As he gets closer to leaving office – a big if, in Trump’s case – timing becomes critical. If you’re a minute late for the last bus, you have to walk.
Pre-emptive pardons are not explicitly ruled out by the text of the constitution (“The President … shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of impeachment.”). The Supreme Court found in “ex Parte Garland” (1866) that “The power […] extends to every offence known to the law, and may be exercised *at any time after its commission*” But the current Court, rather famously, does not feel particularly bound by _stare decisis_. I do not find it hard to imagine them favouring pre-emptive pardons. Let’s hope we don’t find out.
You should have said that when blithely stating the president can issue preemptive pardons. BTW, do you have an example of one? Asking for a friend about to take the bar exam.
We may be talking about two different things. If a president pardons someone for crimes they committed, but before they’ve been indicted or charged, as Ford did for Nixon, what’s been preempted is the charges the could have been filed. That’s the normal usage of preemptive pardon.
Your point was that the president could issue, in effect, get out of jail free cards, that is, pardons in advance of any crime. My point was that there’s no jurisprudence that supports that position.
It is possible trump would “pardon” people in exchange for them doing him “favours”, but it is one of those things which would attract too much attention. Even he isn’t that stupid. He could simply ask Putin to lend him one of his people who poison others. Most criminals who could be let out of jail by trump have such big mouths the world would be advised. You can borrow some one from the cartels to do your “dirty” work, etc. Not much to worry about.
Lets not forget Trump is 78 and he doesn’t look in great shape. Ill health may get him before anything else does
When trump was elected President the first time, did wonder how the U.S.A. would make it through. It did. Americans are a pretty innovative bunch. Americans have also been quite good at organizing themselves and moving forward with out any formal leadership.
Things may become weird and dangerous for some in the U.S.A. if trump/vance are in office but my money is on the country surviving trump and his beasts.
I think Trump has a maximum of 18 months. He is going to do all the dirty work of pardons and deportations and laying siege to the Department heads of the FDA, HHS etc., ensconcing the 2025 approved list of fellow travelers, destroying all that irksome stuff like the EPA.
Then, JD Vance and the 2025 Cabinet will declare the 25th A and Vance will ascend to the throne in time for the 250th birthday of the US, as the savior of the nation. Trump has a very short sell-by date.
There is no way Vance or anyone else is going to 25th A Trump short of Trump turning into a drooling vegetable. Trump heads the cult of personality. They absolutely need him to keep the MAGA army alive. If they oust Trump, they’ll immediately jump from 40% of the country opposing them to 80+%.
As UK artist, Banksy, recommends, when you’re exhausted, learn to rest, not to quit.
Excellent advice.
LOVE, Banksy. We went to an incredible exhibition of his work at the Palace of Fine Arts in SF a couple of years ago. My favorite piece is the framed one that suddenly started moving out of the frame, being shredded, minutes after being auctioned for a huge amount of money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXKE0nAMmg4
It’s very nice you saw it before it was “this tape will self destruct in 5 seconds, good luck …”
Your impressions? Aside from the wee spectacle.
Ok. Rest when one is exhausted, that’s an epiphany? Something else? What?
Notice no one speaks of the actual art. They can’t, it does a trick that would amuse a child’s attention span before it can be truly pondered upon, escaping just that, forever. Clever trick.
The epiphany is that, even when exhausted, giving up is a choice.
There are other options–you can take some necessary rest and then come back at the problem.
Remember, all that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good people to stand by and do nothing. Please don’t lose hope.
If the house ends up with a Dem majority DJT will simply declare the results invalid and
and there will be no opposition to anything he and his cronies want to do.
Not likely. Trump is only concerned with his seat, President. From which he can throw away his indictments and convictions, pardon his loyalists, including those who attacked the seat of Congress – voted by the People, of the People, for the People.
Trump, in his first 100 days, will make a mockery of your great experiment aka The United States of America.
Mockery of your great experiment
Gee thanks
Personally I left the US two years ago. As I saw there no accountability for trump and he wasn’t going away I felt that there would be trouble ahead.
Were you an immigrant here, your comment suggests you might have trouble passing the American govt portion of the test for naturalization.
Have any of you from states other than California, checked you vote today ? I am seeing a not small number of people who are checking their vote today, and it says that it was returned, or their birthdate is incorrect or other reasons for not being counted, when yesterday it said it had been counted.
Expat votes have been challenged, here from Canada, reported,and elsewhere in Israel and elsewhere worldwide, last minute, Friday – particularly in Pennsylvania counties.
Just made the news here in Canada.
Something stinks in Pennsylvania.
No, not floating a conspiracy, but the challenges, last minute, to ex pat voters, many regular voters, bears some scrutiny regardless.
Votes not counted in PA imagine that
I’m an oversea vote
but I’m unable to check if my vote was counted ( which I doubt) only that it was received
I agree. I saw a tweet of a Pennsylvania voter who spent $1000 to fly to the commonwealth in time to turn in her returned absentee ballot and vote in person.
From Europe….
That’s a serious voter.
I was seeing stuff like that yesterday. elseweb. It’s really hinky.
I don’t think KH should have conceded until all the votes were counted. And now there are issues with votes not being counted in PA
Can Trump do anything to stop being prosecuted for the crimes he has already committed after his presidency ends?
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Yeah, I would expect Smirnov to be pardoned. Even if Trump insiders were not pressing Trump to pardon Smirnov, I bet Netanyahu would be pressing as well.
The trial is still scheduled for December, but Smirnov has been pressing hard for an extension to April or May. He is claiming the prosecutors waited too long to give him CHS reports about his work exposing Armenian organized crime figures in 2011.
Leo Wise is, so far, sticking to moving forward with the trial.
Once Trump is President, there really isn’t any reason for Jack Smith to continue his work. Nothing will happen and if he were to continue his life would be made very uncomfortable and he’d be fired.
It makes more sense for him to finish up, write a report, and resign. I’m sure there are a number of organizations which would find Smith’s skills very useful, i.e. the Court in the Hague.
People like Trump usually make a mistake along the way and then the game is over.
People like Trump drop mistakes like horses drop road apples. Trump, though, may be unique in never having to pick up after himself.