325,000 People Vote in First Day of Early Voting in Georgia
I voted 25 days ago; my vote was received 22 days ago.
It has taken the interim three weeks before people living stateside have started getting into the fun — nowhere more so than in Georgia. Over 325,000 people voted in yesterday’s first day of early voting.
You can go here to track early vote in each state. It shows that Georgia’s turnout is promising, but by no means dispositive for Kamala Harris. Almost 30% of people who voted yesterday were Black (about the same percentage as they made up in 2020 exit polls, but still three percent short of eligible Black voters); 54% of people who voted were women (two percent short of their 2020 exit poll rate). According to AJC’s Greg Bluestein, over 45,000 of the people who voted yesterday did not vote in 2020.
68% of the people who’ve voted early in Pennsylvania so far are registered Democrats (though Biden had a much bigger percentage of early voters in 2020 than Trump).
Almost 56% of people who’ve voted in Michigan are women, a few points higher than 2020 exit polls.
But there are cautions for Democrats, too. The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston doesn’t have the same same confidence that the Democrat will win Nevada as he has had in recent years.
Plus, almost no one can track this well, because the last two elections — the first Dobbs election and the COVID presidential — are so unusual.
Perhaps the most interesting stat I’ve seen in the last day is this poll, showing (unsurprisingly) that Kamala Harris is picking up a far greater percentage of the AAPI vote than Biden was, particularly among Indian-American voters.
This is a significant (over 4% of the vote) voting block in NV, GA, PA, MI, and NC, but doesn’t always get tracked in cross tabs. It could be that we’ve spent months talking about whether Harris, who would be the first Black woman President, would match normal Democratic support among Black voters (who tend to come home late), while missing that Indian-American voters could put the first Asian-American President over the top.
As of today, Donald Trump has <3% of his campaign left (20 of 721 days).
As of today, Kamala Harris has over 18% of her campaign left (20 of 107 days).
Every one of those days is a chance to get less likely supporters out.
Update: Bluestein also confirms what other people had jumped the gun to report: Jimmy Carter’s vote for Kamala Harris was dropped in the dropbox at the Sumter County Courthouse.
Am starting early voting work tomorrow. We have already had a couple of weeks of early voting, with over a half-million in person so far. Our elections people expect heavy turnout from here on in.
We members of Democrats Abroad (DA) Australia have been working over the past several months to get people registered, help them request their ballots, and help them return their ballots. 6000 Americans in Sydney alone. We’ve helped ~300 in the last month. DA has a 24 hour help platform to support voters. Since DA is global, someone is always awake. https :// www. democratsabroad. org I’ve broken the link by inserting a space though I believe it to be safe.
The ASPIRE PAC has run aggressive fundraising campaigns. The ASPIRE PAC is ” the political arm of Asian American and Pacific Islander Members of Congress”.
I’ve been wondering how much of an impact they will have.
In a tight race when as little as one percent can make a difference, they can have a serious impact.
Especially when they understand and communicate in languages which are underserved in an English-dominant society.
One thing we should all keep in mind is the fact that for every state it doesn’t matter if a candidate’s Presidential Elector slate receives a million more or just by a single vote. This is why every vote matters, even in alleged safe states.
Largest % Asian-am states are all blue except Alaska & Nevada and Nevada is a pretty important electoral state.
Filipinos are 6% of Nevada population (other Asians total 5%) and are 68% pro Harris (vs 40% pro Biden 4 years ago) and if these numbers above hold true then, Harris adds 12,000 Fil-Am votes to a state that Biden carried by 33,000. All the other possible swing states have below average Asian-Am pops.
The newer Dem-voting population in NC, in particular, skews AAPI, not surprisingly. That’s what Dems hope will put Harris over the top there.
But I should add: AAPI population is highest in swing states in NV.
To augment your point:
Worth reading the Wikipedia entry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada#Demographics — population has grown rapidly over the last 20 years, likely because of aging Boomers and lack of a state income tax, combined with an influx of service workers.
(I had just been reading about NV’s demographics this morning, quelle coinky-dinky.)
I don’t know to what degree this is reflected in the demographics, but in the last few years Las Vegas has become a popular destination for one of Hawaii’s most reliable exports: People who want to own a home.
Transplants from Hawaii would be heavily represented in the Multi racial and Asian categories numbers, more so than as Pacific Islander only.
Reply to Kope a Pia
October 17, 2024 at 1:30 pm
I’m wondering which category Filipino Americans selected, some of whom may have left Hawaii.
Reply to Rayne
I was also having the same thought. What category did the producers of the report put Filipino only in, Asian or Pacific Islander? It would appear from the high number of Asians they are probably counted there.
According to census guidelines Filipinos are Asians not Pac Islanders but Hawiians are Pac Islanders. Filipinos came early to Hawaii and are multi-generation Americans so if they consider themselves Hawiians they might check off Pac Islander. Census is self reporting, not sure if that will change with Project 2025. By the numbers Harris should get nice bump from Asian swing generally and Filipinos in Nevada specifically.
I was surprised NC was so low in Asians with Research Triangle. Maybe NC Asian grad students will register to vote in NC not NY & NJ!
Asian stats here are a little different than above
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/asian-population
Hope you didn’t vote for TFG again.
If I live to be 1,000 I’ll never forget that if Tennessee had voted for Al Gore he would have won the presidency, the astonishment to me is the pride of being able to say (my state) was the birthplace of a President & the tourism money that comes with it.
I live in Los Angeles a melting pot of every state & nation. I’ve known a lot of people from Pennsylvania. Down home regular hard working, good humored usually Democrats. Every time this election the huge focus on the so called tightness of the race in Pennsylvania & I’m thinking every time it’s Joe Biden’s home state, Scranton Penn. scrolls through my mind. EVERY TIME! The Constitution state. That Harris is Joe’s V.P. & would fit just fine in the history of Pennsylvania, especially in the electing of the first woman president, Joe Biden connection would be a very nice historical constitution bookmark.
My point is I don’t know why the Democratic Party doesn’t run ads promoting the Constitution States home born President Joe Biden & the nice historical connection possibility of the 1st Woman President. Pennsylvanians come with a lot of natural pride and don’t mind a bit more. : )
I don’t believe Pennsylvania is neck & neck with some two bit crook sleaze bags. Not Pennsylvanians style that couldn’t be changed if even slightly so. IMO, my scroll EVERY TIME, Scranton! Adding in maybe the word scram! That’s an example of Pennsylvanians I’ve known.
Maybe voters of the Volunteer State were just fine with Andrew Jackson, James K. Polk, and Andrew Johnson — ie. three of the absolute dregs of the American Presidency — and didn’t want to spoil the party by electing someone who probably would’ve made a decent one.
Jackson (if we ever get his image off the 20 dollar bill) was born in the north colonial Carolinas i.e. North or South Carolina today. Johnson & Polk North Carolina. Grievous men for sure. Although their careers were in Tennessee. Maybe Tennessee gets less hurricanes? I thought it’d be interesting to research the presidents born in Pennsylvania. Maybe someday. Time. (I think there was a comedian who would say “all’s I know,”) is I like Biden, Harris & Walz. : )
So I did the simple research. Only 21 states out of 50 have been the birthplace of Presidents.
Connecticut is the Constitution state. Pennsylvania is the keystone state.
The Tennesseans I’ve known for decades are rural, educated, mostly wealthy, and supremely well-connected. It didn’t take many shots of bourbon to get the rumors about the Gore family flowing: Satanic rituals conducted in the woods, blood sacrifices, all manner of gothic hogwash.
What struck me was how sticky these myths seemed to be–evidence be damned–among a group of people, all college graduates, equipped to know better but motivated to believe the worst.
I’m not saying any debunking would have made them vote for Gore. It was obvious that at that time they were doctrinaire Republicans; only Trump has made a few of them question their faith. (And question their faith they must because every Sunday their pastors harangue them with the GOP’s political messages.)
I wonder about the Vietnamese vote. Vietnamese Americans have favored Republicans, but so did Filipino-Americans, who are the biggest shift in Marcy’s poll.
In swing states, isn’t the biggest Vietnamese block in NoVa (there’s a significant Hmong population in W MI, but not big in terms of numbers)?
NoVa would be the most directly affected by Project 2025.
A lot of folks who escaped Vietnam in perilous conditions at the end of the war are now Vote People.
Viets and Koreans came to the US from militaristic settings and tend towards GOP “strong on national defense” mindset ,which has hit it’s expiration date with trump’s affection for North Korean dictator. trump would sell out South Korea as quickly as he would Ukraine. All Americans from these Asian countries (and eastern Europe) who have affinity for their native lands who want to see their ancestral homes remain independent & prosperous should think three times before voting for isolationist trump.
Filipinos, despite their close connection to the US Navy, aren’t militaristic, IMO. (My wife is Filipina so I get immersed in the chatter!)
I realize CA is not a swing state, but Orange County has 190,000 Vietnamese citizens and a Vietnamese Democratic candidate is challenging the incumbent Republican there. That would mean a gain in a much needed House seat, not a negligible thing.
True, and Harris could have an effect there.
The “190,000 Vietnamese citizens in Orange County” are immaterial as they cannot vote.
Correct?
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You could have asked Christopher rocco to clarify what they they meant by “190,000 Vietnamese citizens in Orange County” rather than making the assumption they are not American citizens of Vietnamese heritage and asking the commenter to confirm that.
This is how bullshit right-wing propaganda about undocumented persons voting gets reinforced and I’m not having it here in comments.
I was canvassing in a neighborhood the other day that had a lot of Vietnamese voters registered as Ds. I was kind of surprised, because when I canvassed years ago in one of the first neighborhoods where they settled after the airlifts there were a lot more Rs. This was an upscale neighborhood. But I thought it was interesting. Maybe a younger demographic. I was not focused on the ages so much. I did not happen to speak to any of them, but I hope they vote D.
Do polls have any use anymore other than as excuse for talking heads to blather? I’ve forgotten the state now, but in 2020 the polls showed Biden leading by 9 points in a state he won by less than 1/2 point. I suspect many Republicans are fed up with Trump and many men will vote Harris in the privacy of a voting booth and neither group will admit it to pollsters.
Polls exist to keep Steve Kornacki employed…
and wearing a tie with his shirt sleeves rolled up.
In 1980, ‘the respected Iowa Poll’ not only got the margins wrong, it got the sign wrong. And that was a time when finding voters and getting them to respond was less difficult than it is today.
I had already stopped paying attention to polls, based on Michael Wheeler’s 1976 book ‘Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics: the Manipulation of Public Opinion in America.’ Still well worth reading.
In recent years, I have paid more attention to options markets. I made a lot of money betting on Obama in 2008. But I have always been dubious about those and am now just about convinced that they are as useless as polls. The wild swings in the PredictITmarket (tracked at Virtual Tout) cannot possibly be reflecting anything happening among the electorate.
Josh Marshall, YMMV:
Marshall might be right generally but when I was betting on Obama in ’08 I was bucking the polls.
What I suspect now is that the options markets are being manipulated. I don’t know how but the gyrations are waaay outside any likely changes in sentiment. and also waaay outside any movement in the polls (although the polls and the options are moving in the same direction this month).
@ Harry Eagar
October 16, 2024 at 3:53 pm
Fair enough – if you have skin in the game I’m sure you’re keeping close tabs on all data sources.
While it might not have been the case in 2008, I think in recent years the prediction markets have largely gained popularity with the same overwhelmingly male demographic that favors sports betting and cryptocurrency. (And unfortunately, has a pretty big Venn diagram overlap with people who view Trump and/or Musk positively.) As someone who watches them from the outside out of geopolitical/economic interest, it’s disappointing to see that skew reflected in their predictions over the past few years.
In all fairness to (ethical) pollsters, as a former member of the Survey section of the American Statistical Association I can say it’s especially tough to get it right when both sides are trying their damnedest to wreck your likely voter models – and every election’s likely voters change mildly with the economy and other issues (e.g., abortion) even without that.
If you think polls are useless, ask yourself these two questions:
1. Do I think this race is tight right now?
2. Why do I think that?
There are a lot of junk polls out there this round, and that is unfortunate. But honestly conducted polls still provide a lot of useful information.
No idea whether it is tight. There is sufficient objective evidence to allow one to think that Harris has — for this era — a solid lead. I refer to small-dollar fund-raising.
But there is evidence to show that trump has an advantage, primarily a negative assumption that his rock sold base of 2020 seems impervious to current events.
There’s a lot of voters in GA who are highly aware that barricades and hurdles have been put in front of them to discourage them from going to the ballot box, and 325,000 people said “hold my beer.”
I wish I had captured a a screenshot, but the lead headline (on my mobile) at CNN this morning read something like “Harris going on Fox belies total Dem panic” or something to that effect. “…Kamala Harris is finally daring to ditch the script as Democrats fret about her campaign. ”
Kos puts it in better context: From Fox News to Joe Rogan, Harris has a plan: Win
TPM: An All Of The Above Campaign
No, this isn’t panic. It’s invading Trump’s home turf. It’s meant to make him unsettled and fearful. It’s working.
I also think it’s noteworthy that Harris is doing an interview on Fox and with Joe Rogan, but not with the NY Times.
One reason would be unhappiness with the Times, but another would be that with a print interview, there will be editing. With Fox she can insist on a live interview with no editing. Likewise with Rogan, though I don’t know that he edits much.
Can’t rebroadcasters edit fux interviews?
Trump’s Fox Woman Town Hall today included at least two answers that I imagine will alienate voters, including Fox voters.
I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again. She’s really good at this, perhaps even better than Biden who has decades of experience campaigning for public office. This was planned a while ago, now, it’s a matter of execution. Trump’s campaign on the other hand seems based on seat of the pants and spectacle.
You really should look up what “belies” means.
That’s going to be my opening word in Wordle tomorrow.
If only it were 5 letters.
@ pH unbalanced
October 17, 2024 at 12:23 pm
I was just seeing who was paying attention
Honeyed Deception?
I hope Dinesh D’Souza was there to film Jimmy Carter’s mule dropping off his ballot so MTG can report her concerns with election irregularities to JD Vance so he can launch an investigation because Georgians have a right to not have their concerns censored by Biden’s deep state media.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62gx6rvv5wo
Euro girls are bringing it, and “the kids are running in circles around us.” Yea, they don’t get much airplay, but that’s the way things go. However, American girls are voting and bringing it big time in Georgia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ivMJ07BJE0&
First thing that caught my eye was “…film Jimmy Carter’s mule dropping off his ballot“…which gave me an interesting mind’s-eye picture of a circa-2000’s Jimmy Carter in his Habitat for Humanity house-building neckerchief, leading his mule, moving our burden further down the trail. That picture had a kind of rightness to it.
But then, oh yeah, DD’S 2,000 Mules caught up with me. Sighhhh…Never Mind.
But still, thank you Matt Foley. Knowing Jimmy got to vote for Kamala Harris, comforts me.
Can’t you just feel that MAGA Christian love?
Upon arrival police spoke to staff who related they were having a food distribution event. Nolan Thomas Hollenden from Warrington arrived and became aggressive, agitated, and cursing asking if “they were feeding all of these illegals”. Hollenden was asked multiple times to leave, and he refused. A staff member went inside to call the police and Hollenden followed them inside the building where staff again told him he was not permitted in the building. Hollenden then went back outside and began filming narrating a video relating the school was feeding pallets of food to illegals.
Sourced via CRIMEWATCH®: https://bucks.crimewatchpa.com/warringtontwppd/34642/arrests/hollenden-nolan-thomas-18-3503b1i-defiant-trespass-actual-communication-actor-m1-and-1
Huh – 5’8”, 135#, wants to be a big man.
Elon Musk Might Have Broken the Law Against Bribing Voters. Whoops!
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/10/elon-musk-2024-election-bribing-voters-trump.html
Richard L. Hasen Oct 16, 20243:20 PM
From Marc Elias’ Democracy Docket:
Advocacy Groups Demand Probe into ‘Threatening’ Texts to Young Wisconsin Voters https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/10/16/325000-people-vote-in-first-day-of-early-voting-in-georgia/ Crystal Hill October 16, 2024
I still have my sterling silver FMBM lapel pin (For McGovern before Miami) which his campaign gave to those who donated to him before he won the nomination.
Its metal value was, at the time, about 10 cents but it was deemed an improper gratuity and withdrawn.
(Out of curiosity, I just checked to see if you can buy one on eBay. You can, for a sawbuck, but all examples are labeled as representing Farmers and Merchants Bank. The sellers seem indifferent as to the significance of the second M.)
The AAPI data is interesting. The anti-immigrant rhetoric may be having an effect on voters who realize they could easily become the next target.
Everything points towards a high turnout election and that would increase the probability of a Harris/Walz win.
You might want to catch up with Simon Rosenberg. Meidas Touch published an interview on YouTube.
The people working on my water pipes today said that they are voting for Kamala Harris. And so are their friends and relatives. YAY!
Early voting starts here next week.
God bless you President Carter. Knowing you got your wish to vote for Kamala put a huge smile on my face, one that will linger for awhile.
Let out a ‘Hell yea’ when I read that!
I was in that pleasant, drifty place between wake and sleep, and a voice in my head said “Harris will win.” I felt very free and happy.
The same thing happened when my little sister was about 6 months pregnant, more than two decades ago. It was a man’s deep voice, saying “it’s a girl.” And it was.
Harris is going to win.