VP Harris’ Haley Play

This week, Greg Sargent has had two good podcasts on swing state politics, first with the campaign strategist for North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, Morgan Jackson, and then with Josh Shapiro. Both talked about the import of losing by less in rural areas — something Barack Obama did successfully, something that Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin says she’s attempting on Michigan.

But Jackson focused on something else: he noted that Nikki Haley received 250,000 votes in the March 5 primary, the day she dropped out. If Harris can convert any of those voters, it can chip into the 10,000 votes by which Joe Biden lost North Carolina to Trump in 2020.

Nikki Haley got almost 300K votes on February 27 in the Michigan primary.

Nikki Haley got over 75K votes ono March 12 in the Georgia primary.

Nikki Haley got 110K votes on March 19 in the Arizona primary.

Nikki Haley got over 75K votes on April 2 in the Wisconsin primary.

Nikki Haley got over 150K, more than 16% of the vote, on April 23 in the Pennsylvania primary, over a month after she dropped out.

To be sure, most polls show that Trump is still winning an overwhelming majority of the self-identified Republican voters. Trump will get most of these votes.

But Harris’ cultivation of Republican endorsements makes more sense when you think of the one-sixth of the Republican primary voters who voted against Trump long after Haley dropped.

And that’s why two recent endorsements are of particular interest. Last Friday, the co-chair of Haley’s Iowa campaign endorsed Harris.

I served as an Iowa state co-chair of the Nikki Haley for President campaign. I think both parties let us down by selecting two candidates for president in or near their 80s. I was at a loss.

Then, when President Joe Biden stepped down and endorsed Kamala Harris as his replacement, I decided to see who she really was. I was impressed with how she handled herself saying that she wanted to “earn everyone’s support.” She showed willingness to listen to a wider range of views to solve problems.

So I am supporting Kamala Harris for president.

On Wednesday, two key Haley supporters in Michigan endorsed her, including her co-Chair Bill Nowling (who once worked for Rick Snyder).

We disagree, sometimes strongly, with Vice President Harris on some of the ways we increase opportunity for everyone, but we believe she is a person of integrity. And right here, right now in this important election, character and integrity matter most of all.

We can’t say the same thing about former President Trump. Trump builds up himself by tearing down America and Americans. Just last week, during a speech that was supposed to be about battling antisemitism, the former president said the Jewish people would have “a lot to do with” the reason he might not win in November. During his televised debate with the vice president, Trump said Haitian immigrants living in Ohio were, “eating the dogs. They’re eating cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there.” America deserves better.

But it is more than just the strange things he says. Trump is no conservative.

I talk about most of these Republican endorsements, starting with that of the Cheneys, as providing a permission structure for Republicans to consider Harris.

But getting Haley’s former state leaders is something else, because it provides an ability to tap into a local network of like-minded never-Trumpers.

If this election turns out to be as close as people expect, it wouldn’t take many Haley voters converted into Harris voters to make the difference. If Harris wins, and by more than expected, these Republican Harris supporters can start what Liz Cheney is now proposing, a third party, representing actual conservatives who are opposed to the radical nuts who took over the Republican party.

No one knows if this concerted effort to court Republicans will work. If it fails, the time it took may end up being one of Harris’ biggest mistakes.

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36 replies
  1. Scott_in_MI says:

    “Nikki Haley got almost 300K votes on February 27 in the Michigan primary.”

    I’d caution against reading too much into that specific number. Given the lock that Biden had on the Democratic nomination, I and a number of other Democratic voters I know felt that helping to run up Haley’s numbers in MI was a better use of those primary votes. Those voters – a minority of the voters in the MI GOP primary, sure, but potentially a sizable minority – do not represent “convertable” voters for Harris; they’re already planning to vote for her.

    • CaptainCondorcet says:

      My thoughts also turned to open primaries. The general point still stands, but i agree the marginal benefit will be lower than it had seemed between voters like you and voters who always invented to vote for Trump but wanted Haley to get a cabinet position or some such

    • emptywheel says:

      As I 2000 John McCain voter, I know the dynamic well.

      In other states it was about 12%. So maybe 4% were crossover.

    • Rayne says:

      Yup, that. Pretty sure a hardcore Democratic voting family member did a crossover during the primary here in Michigan to fuck with Trump’s numbers.

    • pH unbalanced says:

      Studies have shown that usually the effects of crossover voting in primaries cancels out as the overall numbers are pretty small and roughly equal numbers crossover each way.

      Usually.

      The media was really hyping up the number of Dem voters voting “Uncommitted” at that time — especially in Michigan — but I don’t know how much of a draw that was for Republican voters.

      • Shannon_30SEP2024_1740h says:

        I’m just curious if anyone is asking disaffected Democratic voters’ opinions. We keep courting republicans and all it’s gotten us is more extreme republicans and less exciting democrats. Obama was charismatic, and he did war crimes and Republicans treated him like he was Lenin. Biden was an ostensible moderate with the record to make him “the only one who could beat Trump,” he has done war crimes, and Republicans treat him like Lenin. Since “democrats” will always be painted as Maoist fiends, what if they tried *not* alienating everyone to the left of Chuck Schumer? The Biden policy on Israel (which is currently run by a genocidal, far right despot who loves Trump) is to the right of Reagan. I have voted for Democrats for every election since my first in 2008. I’m done with their continual flat-footedness and centrism.

        Democrats haven’t done a bit of good for me or anyone I know. I’m experiencing the healthcare system Joe Biden and Joe Lieberman’s party wrought. We laughed at the idea they were building death panels, but I know plenty of people who have been given the run-around by their insurance til their cancer was too advanced to save them. I have insurance now, but it doesn’t mean I have healthcare. Great job, fellas.

        “Democrats will protect women’s reproductive freedom.”

        When? I’ve been waiting for 36 years. Obama had the votes, but he wanted a political “win.” And here we are running on clawing back Roe and keeping our fingers crossed for a blue wave driven by nothing but fear of the backsliding Democrats continue to ignore (SCOTUS, anybody?).

        If the October Surprise isn’t a complete about-face on running as Republican Lite, they’re fools.

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        • Rayne says:

          Why are you here, Shannon, first time commenter? This site is owned/operated/moderated by persons who identify as Democrats.

          Did you think coming to dump your emotional baggage blaming Democrats for all your woes would help your cause? Because as far as I can tell you’re one of those folks who think Democrats are a monolithic entity apart from yourself who are supposed to deliver your sparkle pony without you actually doing a goddamned thing to help the cause.

          You have health insurance now? Great. That’s more than you had, from the sounds of it. Who exactly would have gotten you more? The same party which stole a SCOTUS seat thereby enabling the theft of women’s reproductive rights? What did you do in 2012, 2016, 2020 after that theft? Anything?

          I live in Michigan where a lot of folks busted their asses to break gerrymandering by changing the state’s constitution, electing a trifecta of women at the top of state government, electing a Democratic majority and ending an abortion law on the books since the 1930s. It didn’t happen with the wave of a magical fucking wand over whiners complaining what an awful disappointment Democrats have been.

          Welcome to emptywheel. And for future benefit, 283 words is a fucking long comment when it consists of emotion-dumping opinion without any new informative content doing little more than amplifying right-wing talking points.

  2. Bobster33 says:

    Abortion and marijuana legalization are the only two issues that Kamala needs to discuss. All other issues get drown out by the right wing noise machine. I’ve seen my Republican colleagues watch videos of Kamala discussing policies, and my colleagues still say they don’t know Kamala’s policies.

    If you want a spokesperson, ask Kellyanne Conway’s daughter Claudia to explain it. In an interview on Fox, Claudia said that her mother had more rights when she was a teenager than Claudia has now.

  3. Peterr says:

    To take on the role of being the state chair for a candidate challenging the (semi-)incumbent party leader is to say — loudly and publicly — that the (semi-)incumbent leader is problematic at best.

    This makes them prime candidates for an appeal like this. Says Team Harris to Team Haley leaders: “You already made it clear that Trump was NOT the candidate to support, and that hasn’t changed. How about you take a look at me?”

  4. biff murphy says:

    If…Trump was smart he would have picked Hailey as a running mate. Even after she dropped she was still pulling in 20% of the republican votes.
    But he’s not.
    We should be thankful for that.

  5. harpie says:

    Related:

    Trump and Harris Step Up Efforts to Woo Mormon Voters
    The recent moves reflect how members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are no longer locked in for Republicans. Their votes could matter in key battlegrounds.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/us/politics/trump-harris-mormon-voters.html
    Sept. 27, 2024, 11:37 a.m. ET

    […] On Thursday night, Ms. Harris’s campaign held a Zoom call with prominent Latter-day Saints, including Evan McMullin, the one-time independent presidential candidate, to motivate members of the church and reach those who might be on the fence about backing Mr. Trump. The call was held a week after the campaign launched an advisory committee in Arizona with the same goals.

    Earlier this week, Mr. Trump met with members of the church at Mar-a-Lago to shore up his own support among them, his campaign said. […]

  6. Chris Bellomy says:

    I would like to see numbers detailing how Haley’s 2024 primary voters voted in November 2020. Is the Harris campaign aggressively courting voters they already had in pocket, or are do these voters represent true crossover potential?

    One would like to assume that the pros in the Harris campaign have done this research already and found the potential enticing, but I’ve seen a lot of incompetence from Democratic consultants over the years…

  7. allan_in_upstate says:

    There is a real danger that courting the Haley voters will drive away voters on the left – not to Trump, but to protest votes (like Jill Stein) or not voting at all. Hearing Harris talk about “the most lethal military in the world”, “everyone should have the opportunity to compete” or blockchain as a “sector[s] that will define the nation the next century” does not inspire progressives – it sends the message that their votes are being taken for granted. Maybe they’ll stay in the fold, because the alternative is so bad, but people who think they’re not being listened to do funny things.

    • earlofhuntingdon says:

      Seems like an overreaction. Protest voting for Jill Stein? LOL. That’s the equivalent of voting for Donald Trump.

      Nor is a candidate for president remiss in talking about using the hard and soft power the US retains to persuade others in the world to follow its priorities. Kamala Harris is not running for PTA president.

      Trump, otoh, seems to be running to be Putin-Lite. Trump says he’ll bomb Iran to smithereens. He publicizes communications from foreign heads of state, as if he were marketing unfinished junk condos on a now missing beach in Florida. If the Dems need to do anything, it’s to keep point out how crazy Donald Trump is.

      • Peterr says:

        At the presidential race level, I agree.

        But where it could hurt Harris is in the downticket races, where Dems are fighting to keep the Senate and win the House. If this pitch appeals to get disgruntled Republicans out to vote for Harris, they might also vote for GOP Senate and House members to salve their consciences.

        I have nothing but my gut to go by on this, but I think a similar pitch by Hillary in 2016 cost Jason Kander (D) a victory over incumbent Roy Blunt (R) in the US Senate race in Missouri. Kander outpolled Hillary by 16%, but came up about 2% short against Blunt.

      • CaptainCondorcet says:

        You note “nor is a candidate remiss…”. Funny thing about that, there are a lot of young potential voters, fairly or (likely) unfairly, who fundamentally disagree with you. The headliner for an over 100k attended history-making Lollapalooza concert appearance just made a public statement that she couldn’t endorse either candidate in good conscience. She actually joins a number of musicians who have done the same. Which makes Swift’s decision all the more important, but also highlights there may be something to Peterr and allan concern

        • earlofhuntingdon says:

          They’ve never tried to run a PTA, let alone the Oval Office.

          Running for the presidency is a personality test. If you try to appeal to everyone, you’ll appeal to no one.

        • P J Evans says:

          Most celebrities have zero political experience. (There are exceptions – George Takei was on the board of the L.A. transit district.)

        • earlofhuntingdon says:

          It doesn’t take political experience to know who Kamala Harris is. She was a Senator from California, is the sitting VP, and is the Democratic nominee for President.

          Janet Jackson is an impresario, one of the wealthiest and most successful entertainers in America. She has whatever staff she needs to deal with whatever needs doing. She’s been in one of the toughest businesses in America since she was in grade school. She’s a smart, tough, cookie.

          She pulled a Donald and said she “heard” that Harris’s Black Jamaican father was white. Thirty seconds of staff time would have cured that misimpression. Whatever her problems with Kamala Harris, ignorance is not one of them.

        • earlofhuntingdon says:

          Is it a coincidence that Janet Jackson’s, Harris isn’t really Black, comment neatly echoed Donald Trump’s similar claim?

          Like Trump, she’s free to have her own opinions, but not her own facts.

        • Just Some Guy says:

          “The headliner for an over 100k attended history-making Lollapalooza concert appearance just made a public statement that she couldn’t endorse either candidate in good conscience.”

          If you’re talking about Chappell Roan she did say afterwards that she is voting for Harris.

      • Troutwaxer says:

        “…as if he were marketing unfinished junk condos on a now missing beach in Florida.

        The real-world equivalent of products that use the blockchain. (AI too.)

    • Error Prone says:

      As a Bernie strong supporter wanting AOC to run against Schumer, to win or just because it says a lot, where else can I go but Harris?

      Already voted, in the count Harris in MN. Down ticket, what the hell, I’m not voting for Tom Emmer, am I? Emmer who has a MN6 district lock. And whores to crypto, the Blockchain Caucus guy. As with the Muslims in Michigan, if not Harris, what? No option! Trump and death of a remote but at least possible Two State solution? They are not going there. It’s Harris, and if she tries to stiff Trump’s whoring to crypto’s rabid ones, and the profit seekers there, let her. It;s good if she chips at that strong Trump try for crypto money and votes.

      What she does if elected is open because we cannot foresee the things that arise. She will be like Obama. Like Biden. Nothing will fundamentally change. It’s okay. Biden was better than I’d expected. Move forward with more of the same. Not too progressive. Wish it were different, but NOT Trump. Bottom line. NOT Trump.

  8. Sparkedcat says:

    “If Harris can convert any of those voters, it can chip into the 10,000 votes by which Joe Biden lost North Carolina to Trump in 2020”. Missed a zero. Should be 100,000 votes.

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  9. MsJennyMD says:

    “I have not forgotten what he said about me. I’ve not forgotten what he said about my husband or his, you know, deployment time or his military service. I haven’t forgotten about his or his campaign’s tactics from, you know, putting a bird cage outside our hotel room to calling me ‘bird brain.’ I haven’t forgotten any of that.”
    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/nikki-haley-says-shes-voting-for-trump-but-hasnt-forgotten-hes-a-massive-prick
    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4900682-nikki-haley-trump-personality-sirusxm/
    Just another politician voting for him rewarding abusive behavior.

  10. punaise says:

    If it fails, the time it took may end up being one of Harris’ biggest mistakes.

    Seems like a reasonable strategy, not a desperate Haley Marry. I guess the subtext is that it diverts resources and effort that might be more effectively spent on traditional GOTV.

  11. swmarks53 says:

    It appears like she may have the money and staff to do traditional GOTV and make a play for Haley supporters. And Mormons. And give money to senatorial campaigns.

  12. Error Prone says:

    As to a Mormon vote, I see Trump taking Utah electors, Harris taking Nevada. Washington State has a Mormon population segment, but the two Mormon families I know there have enough life experience and capacity to see Trump is a self-centered asshole and will likely vote accordingly. I don’t believe there is a “Mormon voting bloc.” Has anyone evidence either way?

  13. David F. Snyder says:

    After reminding (at the convention) the left what’s at stake in this election, Kamala has pivoted to center far more successfully than Donald, for one thing. Yesterday’s trip to the border was a smart move to get her back into the lime light, and signals her return to higher profile events. Walz’s favorability ratings are quite good so I believe this chase for Haley supporters can have significant returns. It’s no small thing that Harris is Baptist, which will help her in Texas and the Southeast. J6 testimony rolling out before the election. There’s a lot to be rationally hopeful for; but of course no counting chicks until the eggs hatch.

    Donate before tomorrow’s deadline, door knock, write letters, phone bank. Do Something.

    Remember, there are women out there serving prison terms for having miscarriages. And many of our privacy rights (not only (though most importantly) women’s) are under attack at the states’ level. There is no excuse for complacency. There are many privacies that are none of the GOP/theocrats’ damn business and we The People need to make that crushingly clear. The Haley supporters I know agree with that sentiment.

    • timbozone says:

      What Harris is effectively doing is being where she needs to be before Trump can. If Haley voters are people she can peel away from Trump then that’s fine as far as it goes. Basically though, Trump is playing catchup to someone who is smarter and more vigorous than he is. That’s the message that Harris and her campaign are really driving home at the moment as we near the 4 week mark to the election.

      And damn straight that it is a woman’s right to choose her own healthcare decisions!

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