Ryan Routh’s Eleven Phones and Two Iran Mentions
DOJ has submitted a detention memo for Ryan Routh, the man held on suspicion that he was trying to assassinate Donald Trump.
The memo cites a letter, left in a box with a neighbor months ago, that seems to confirm that he was trying to assassinate Trump (and offering six figures to anyone else who would accomplish the task). That same letter describes that Trump, “ended relations with Iran like a child and now the Middle East has unraveled.” The detention memo also cites the passage from Routh’s manuscript that I noted here, apologizing to Iran for voting for Trump.
I am man enough to say that I misjudged and made a terrible mistake and Iran I apologize. You are free to assassinate Trump as well as me for that error in judgment and the dismantling of the deal.
The memo describes a number of other things that suggest an operational security far exceeding that of a mentally ill man seeking glory. As I noted in the earlier post, the phone he had on his person while surveilling the golf course was one for which he had posted the WhatsApp number while Asif Merchant, charged in an attempt to recruit hitmen to target Trump, was still at large on July 10.
But in addition to that phone, Routh had six cellphones in his truck, at least two of which used different carriers, and four more cell phones in the box he left at a neighbor’s. As I mentioned, Merchant provided the informant in that case instructions on acquiring secure phones.
As previous reports described, the license plats on his truck were stolen, and he had two other sets of plates in the truck. One of the phones in the truck had been used to search for directions to Mexico.
Again, it certainly may be that Routh was simply disturbed. But more of this looks like Iran may have been involved.
Interesting post/piece!
I sense there is a connection between Iran, Asif Merchant and Routh.
And it appears Routh is a disturbed individual.
Is he, however, more disturbed than say Trump, Stephen Miller, Kash Patel, Peter Navarro, Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner, Charlie Kushner, Vladimir Putin, Melania Trump, Laura Loomer and the other nincompoops associated with Trump?
I’d say the biggest difference between Routh and Trump/his minions is that he isn’t as well funded. If he had managed to burrow into wingnut welfare, as Trump/his minions have done, I suspect we would be having a different conversation.
At this point, I think it is more likely that Routh was thinking that he’d be killed in his attempt. He was not in touch with reality. The NGOs and military coordinators in Ukraine thought he was not of sound mind and some reported him to US authorities. The number of phones can be explained by his fundraising and attempts at recruiting.
But it is possible that he had been recruited, given a sum of money for the task and then found himself boxed in.
One would think that a foreign country like Iran would be more professional, though.
Iran’s plans are going badly with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen. Do they have anything like competent strategic planners? An able intelligence service? I’d say probably not, so serious professionalism is probably not in the cards.
I doubt the mullahs want people who think too rationally. That could be dangerous to the clerical control.
Will be very interesting if this winds up being assigned to Aileen Cannon.
Looks like it did!
From this CNN article:
NYC Southpaw reacting to that news:
https://bsky.app/profile/nycsouthpaw.bsky.social/post/3l4wnlj53he2w
September 24, 2024 at 6:18 PM
slightly off topic (and then again, maybe not; either way I’m going to park it here before it falls out of my brain) – did anybody else catch the news from the Pennsylvania Judicial Conduct Board regarding Judge Mark B. Cohen, whose fb posts were found to have injured confidence in the impartiality of the judiciary? (my apologies if this is well covered here – I searched and perhaps didn’t apply appropriate search terms).
Any road up, the direction I’m headed with this is: if this ruling on impartiality had some traction outside of PA and were implied impartially to both sides, it might have some implications for transparently non-impartial judges on the right (at least below the levels of the Supremes – it seems that anything goes with the Supremes (clearly!)).
Documents (which I have access to):
draft press release on the charges filed in the PA CJD against Judge Mark B. Cohen (this contains the fb posts in question)
JCB Sanction hearing memorandum (describes the ruling(?) and sanctions against Judge Cohen)
New items (which turn up in the search – I don’t have access to these, but legal professionals may):
Conduct Board Urges ‘Swift and Severe Punishment’ for Phildelphia Judge’s Posts (the part that I can see says: JCB deputy chief counsel James Kleman Jr. said during Wednesday’s sanction hearing that the case “will guide Pennsylvania Judge’s [sic] conduct for years to come”)
Judge’s Pro-Democratic Facebook Posts Violated Code, Court Says
(I skimmed the judge’s posts and they seemed mostly pro-little-d-democratic to me (and generally anodyne in that sense), but in the current atmosphere these are apparently considered wildly impartial. Also, I apologize if I’ve used wording that incorrectly characterizes of summarizes this stuff. IANAL Finally, given the decades long (and well-documented (by MoJo)) program by the right to elect right-leaning judges in districts where judges are elected. . .nevermind, I won’t go down that rabbithole)
My takeaway is that I’m ready to concede that your eagle eyes have ferreted out a plausible impact position. Thanks for keeping us in the loop. Nice footwork, Ace!
Thank you for this report! It really does look like Routh was suffering from mental illness. In another report there was a picture of his home, which basically displayed and described the poverty he was living through.
When I see Trump, I just see this image of aristocracy, this dated person living in the 1700(s) endlessly using his assets and tricks to manipulate the poor, to extract more from vulnerable people.
Our institutions are failing to protect us and help us. With Routh we see the failure of our health care system. How much more of this will it take? Do we all become beggars?
https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/09/15/how-kamala-harris-dodged-the-two-truths-problem/#comment-1070583
In this ^^^ comment on an earlier post, I linked and excerpted this NYT article,
because it has an Iran connection:
New York Times Reporter Revisits Earlier Interview With Suspect at Trump Golf Course
Ryan Wesley Routh wanted to fly Afghan veterans to fight against Russia in Ukraine,
an endeavor he seemed ill prepared to orchestrate.
Thomas Gibbons-Neff Published Sept. 15, 2024 // Updated Sept. 16, 2024, 8:05 a.m. ET
And here’s Savage Librarian with a reminder that hostages were taken while President Reagan was golfing in 1983, and one of those hostages was
TRUMP campaign head Susie WILES’ husband [at the time] Lanny WILES.
Most likely just a coincidence.
[Wasn’t it Susie WILES who was hacked by Iran?]
https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/09/16/the-concerning-paragraph-in-the-ryan-routh-complaint/#comment-1070708
I don’t think that there’s any provable connection between Charles Harris’s hostage taking standoff at Augusta National on October 22nd 1983 (which only last 2 hours) and Iran.
That was the day before the U.S. Marine Barracks bombing in Beirut by Hezbollah, but the U.S. Embassy had already been bombed in April…. though tbf that was the week after the Masters!
I’ve been skeptical of any connection to Iran and Merchant up till now. The Wiles (seeming) connections seem a little too on the nose. But that Kabul friend? This is very interesting, indeed. Colour me a light shade of persuaded.
I don’t think the Reagan and Trump attempts are related. But it does show how long the Wiles family has been involved with politicians.
I started writing out a who’s who after reading Jane Mayer’s book, The Dark Side. I was absolutely flabbergasted about the connections. I am sure that people way smarter than me, and with more resources have created an influence map well beyond my little sketch book.
Marcy’s new post:
Trump Didn’t Call the FBI Because He Refused to Meet the Standard to Which He Held Hillary Clinton https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/09/24/trump-didnt-call-the-fbi-because-he-refused-to-meet-the-standard-to-which-he-held-hillary-clinton/ September 24, 2024
Dr. Wheeler wrote: “The memo describes a number of other things that suggest an operational security far exceeding that of a mentally ill man seeking glory.”
As an experimental psychologist and retired medical school faculty member, I respectfully disagree. Routh’s beliefs and behavior can be entirely explained by a serious mental illness that he probably has, delusions of grandeur, which is often accompanied by bizarre beliefs and paranoid delusions. Examples of his bizarre, grandiose beliefs include: that he and Dennis Rodman would make effective U.S. ambassadors to North Korea; that Iran should be interested in assassinating Routh for the mistake of voting for Donald Trump; and in general, that Routh’s personal intervention can help to save the world and bring peace in the middle east and in Ukraine.
His likely paranoid delusions would explain the multiple cell phones, stolen license plates, and other basic attempts at operational security. If Routh is of average or above-average intelligence, he would have better ability to rationalize his bizarre, grandiose beliefs and operationalize his extreme remedies. Smart people don’t talk themselves out of delusions of grandeur; in fact, intelligence can just make it even more difficult to treat.
So maybe Iran was involved in Routh’s plot, but there’s really nothing here that requires any more explanation than that of a serious mental illness in a person with average or above-average intelligence.
Some of the challenge here may be with labels — is Routh mentally ill or does he have personality disorders.
Sure. Part of my teaching was in the psychiatry section of the med school curriculum and I still find clinical psychology jargon to be confusing. I thought Dr. Wheeler was referring to “mental illness” construed broadly, which would include the whole range of disorders. But I’m not criticizing Dr. Wheeler’s reasoning or her terminology. I’m just saying that we shouldn’t underestimate what a delusional person of at least average intelligence is capable of all on his own.
Well, if we understand how the mind works we as a society or community should never underestimate any delusional individual, whatever his or her intelligence is.
I deeply involved in cognitive psych, even as this worker bee of an elementary teacher, and I can tell you from 33 years of teaching experience that it is currently not understood how we learn anything. And you probably know that fact. We don’t know how we even learn to talk or walk. Anyone telling you they know is lying.
So, combining abnormal psychology with cognitive psychology gets messy. Like, how does an individual with bipolar disorder learn anything… and they do learn stuff.
I think the term “mental illness” articulates the fact that Ms. Wheeler does not have a diagnosis for Ruth.
What Doug In Ohio should be contemplating is why cognitive therapy isn’t covered by health insurance. Why the cost is well beyond anything a person with mild depression can afford. I am talking about the practiced side of psychology, as in the practice of it on patients. Currently, it is “here is your script…” see you in a month.
We would not have this Routh story if we had viable affordable health care. Something the Republican want to do away with.
Your comment, HPC, runs the gamut from A to B. You might have stopped with your first sentence, because the rest of it undercuts the notion that “we” understand how the human mind works.
I’m not sure this is the place to ask a commentator, who claims to be an experimental psychologist, not a clinician, to explain the rapaciousness of the American health insurance industry. And as any elementary school teacher would know, Marcy was not attempting to diagnose Routh.
1) Marcy said Iran “may be involved.”
2) Someone suffering from mental illness with an axe to grind would be an ideal pawn for a foreign assassination planner to play.
Sorry, but I’m not ready to discount the possibility yet, either, so I’ll remain in “Iran may be involved” territory for now.
I agree with both of your numbered points. I also think that the simplest sufficient explanation often turns out to be correct.
I generally fall into the Occam’s razor camp, myself. That said, “often” definitely leaves a lot of wiggle room.
Regrettably, I have some personal experience with a very intelligent paranoid schizophrenic with similar delusions. This one once had a top level security clearance. He would, I think, be easily able to take all the planning stratagems that we suspect of Routh; our government trained him in that stuff.
And he can mimic sanity so well that he could fool an Iranian schemer, at least for quite a long time. He fooled several psychiatrists for years.
So it might easily be true that Routh is a mental case and that he interacted with Iranian malefactors.
I, too, have had personal experiences with intelligent people who had serious mental health issues.
I had reason to believe (and others aware of the circumstances confirmed that they supported my belief, so much so that they provided special training to staff) that one person solicited another person who had mental health issues to commit a potentially violent criminal act.
A criminal act did indeed occur, but no one was physically injured. But they definitely could have been. I know this sounds vague. But it was very real and very dangerous.
To SL:
Isnt it always the guys with mental health issues “they” recruit?
And we have so many unstable guys in the US.
So many unstable, so many choices! A plotter’s paradise!
Totally agree – long ago a mentor of mine told me that mental illness is not related to IQ – they are separate and distinct and are measured that way. Mental illness does not equal mentally challenged. Often people think of disturbed people or those with a psychological disorder as defined by the DSM (a manual of diagnostic descriptions) as incompetent and stupid, but you can have a seriously psychopathic individual who is also a genius as measured by WAIS, a test of cognitive ability which yields an IQ (intelligence quotient).
My father, a mental-health professional, used to tell the following joke, which I will summarize:
Guy gets new tires, but the shop forgets to tighten the lug nuts on his right front. As he’s driving down the street his tire comes off and starts bouncing down the road. He pulls the car over as best he can and chases his tire down… He jacks up his car and then realizes that all the lug nuts were lost, so what can he do? Even worse, he’s parked next to the local insane asylum… the inmate on the other side of the fence says, ‘Take one lug nut from each of your other tires and use them to secure the tire that came lose. It’s not a great solution, but it’ll get you to the nearest tire store.’
Hey, I thought you were crazy? ‘Yeah, but I’m not stupid.’
Frankly, Routh appears to be a person that is a high functioning paranoid maniac. I am not a doctor but I have observed it in my family who are and were under medical care. My grandfather, mother, brother, sister and now a couple nieces and nephews have delusions of grandeur. My fear growing up was that I might inherit grandiose beliefs. The thing that made them relatively harmless is that they were and are too medicated and addled to carry out anything. However, when they are in manic stages, watch out.
Since none of my relatives could hold a job due to being unreliable, the question remains how could he fund what he was doing?
Routh had a GoFundMe page.
But if I recall correctly, at the time of arrest, he had $68,000 in his bank account. Certainly not enough to pay the amount of $$ he was offering.
I am not a psychiatrist, nor did I sleep at Motel 6, but Routh seems to have been able to keep his delusions in check for long periods that enabled him to function but then would go off the deep end. In the initial accounts of his life, a neighbor reported that he kept a horse in his living room.
I find it perplexing that when someone gets into a maniac state that they can get into a state of afflatus which is what they call divine inspiration. You need a compelling story to get money on GoFundMe.
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For a moment there, I thought you were describing Donald Trump’s mental illness, except for the part about stolen license plates.
Lovely thought.
Ms. Wheeler’s description makes what seems to be an attempted assassination seem like a Russian plan funneled through Iran. Whether it was an attempt to murder the Republican candidate, or just create another near miss remains unsettled since the perpetrator never fired a shot, based on what’s known so far. Iran and possibly Ukraine would get the blame. It may be that Ukraine was aware of his suspicious activities. Russia would be insulated. Ms. Wheeler’s description of Routh portrays a person that could be readily recruited by Iran to at least make the attempt. It seems odd that there was not a professional who is accurate from 800 meters to take a more lethal shop. Maybe the attempt and the resulting chaos was the goal.
I’m not going to endorse the possibility of a Russian plan to assassinate Trump through Iran.
But I do think there is an interesting parallel to consider.
In 1991, an oligarch, who partied with Trump in the 80’s, and ran in the same circles as Trump, was found dead in the ocean near his yacht.
The oligarch’s finances were starting to crumble, he was fighting off losing his business empire. And it had just barely been reported that he has been a spy for decades.
Per investigative reporting in “Israel’s Superspy”, he tried to threaten the Israeli government to pay off his debts, or he would spill the beans. The Israelis then acted like they would save his finances, but sent a Mossad hit team to kill him.
Maxwell?
Robert Maxwell, born an Orthodox Jew in Czechoslovakia, in a region now part of Ukraine. Served in the Czech and British armies during WWII, which helped him obtain a UK passport.
Storied UK press baron, semi-oligarch, domineering Renaissance con man, alleged spy. Ugly father. Stepped off his yacht mid-ocean and into oblivion in 1991, one step ahead of the regulators. No witnesses. Reads like the opening of a Jason Bourne novel.
The resulting bankruptcy of his companies, along with the bigger and more scandalous BCCI bankruptcy the same year, led to the invention of multinational bankruptcy practice.
Are you referring to Ghislaine Maxwell’s father?
Sounds very similar to his death and situation.
Where’s my tin foil….ah yes, that’s better:
When discussing an unstable man with delusions of grandeur and paranoid characteristics, linking the man to Iran and possibly Iranian intelligence ops, I can’t help but be drawn into the Mike Flynn active operation to recruit Christian Militants to take up arms against us unbelievers. And knowing Mike Flynn’s well documented experience in Special Ops, PsyOps and his Christian Nationalist leanings, I would not put it past the Flynn/Stone/Bannon branch of the GOP political operatives to have played Routh like a Stradavarius, stochastically speaking. The Christian Nationalists/NAR group desperately wants Project 2025 but TFG is such a well documented electoral loser (himself and his endorsements and his impact down ballot have all been bad for the GOP), they see the chance to implement Project 2025 nationwide slipping away with each new day that TFG is on the ballot.
For that reason alone, I would not put it past these treason weasels to have exactly these kind of PsyOps that would radicalize lone wolfs just like Routh and Crooks in Butler, PA
Having done all that, and confirming that Routh is in place, then dropping a dime to the Secret Service to “foil the plot”.
This supposedly newly uncovered “Routh letter” smells funny. Supposedly written and mailed months ago, how would he know and why would he describe his actions as a “failed assassination attempt” unless directing that description to make certain news organizations reported what he or his handlers wanted reported?
Maybe it was a prior attempt.
Or it was something like, “You remember that box I gave you to hold for me? Open the envelope inside if I don’t call you by 5:00 pm.”
Statistics show the biggest threat to Trump is a white American man exercising his gun rights.
But Haitians!
DJT stock is $12.73. Make Americans Wealthy Again!
Sadly, it closed at $12.15. If trends continue, Trump may rue the day he didn’t try to sell a tranche at $12.15.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/djt
See? Trump knows how to bring prices down.
Hysterical. And Trump promises to run the country like he runs his businesses (into the ground).
We all remember the refrigerated trucks lined up outside NY hospitals while Trump played games with masks and gowns and eliminated the NY federal tax deduction for state taxes.
The man cannot manage himself out of a paper bag. Just look at how he handled nat sec documents he kept in bankers boxes strewn all over Mar-a-Lago for anyone to see.
I wasted 5 years on JFK conspiracies, only to go full circle and realise Oswald dunnit, alone.
Oswald also left similar letters and correspondence that looked dodgy.
But they weren’t. He was an uneducated nutjob who got radicalised by Soviet propaganda, and fanatical about geopolitics. A solo militant activist. A rebel without a clue.
He got rejected by Russia and Cuba, then blamed Russia and Cuba’s visa policy on JFK, so he shot him.
Lots of parallels between Oswald and Routh.
Unfortunately Oswald did have combat training, so he could shoot, expert level, with rifle and handgun.
Routh had no combat training. Very doubtful he could have made that shot, at his age with poor eyesight and a crappy Korean gun.
Nobody would hire a hitman like Oswald or Routh with their criminal records and rotten personalities.
Oswald had a grudge against Connally, who had been Navy secretary when Oswald was a Marine. Connally was sitting right in front of JFK, and had a bullet go through his wrist; that bullet then hit JFK in the neck.
Your geography needs a little work, unless you agree that the Warren Report was…inadequate. If Connally was sitting in front of JFK, then according to the lone gunman theory, the bullet had to have hit Connally after it hit JFK.
As for who would hire Oswald or Routh, the answer is nobody who expected them to hit their target. That’s not the only reason you might hire someone like them. But analogies between Routh and Oswald are strained, at best.
Highly recommend reading “The Devil’s Chessboard” by David Talbot for a thorough look at the players who wanted JFK removed.
Very readable and hard to turn away from the evil that the Dulles brothers perpetrated.
IMHO
Good book. Readable. Well-supported arguments. Host of circumstantial evidence, but it underlines how hard it was for him to get harder evidence that would support a charge of conspiracy.
Then, again, what were the odds that nearly three dozen witnesses in would have died by 1967, and over a hundred by 1977? Astronomical.
And, speaking of mental illness, we now have Mark Robinson. The press will show it’s blind spot. They will never investigate the obvious mental illness he is suffering from. It will just be twisted into some shame, into a amoral diction of here is the dirt on this politician. Exposing dirt. It is getting boring at this point.
Hello people of the press, “this country is in an epidemic of mental illness right now!” and imagine that directly after a pandemic. We have no solution for it but to just let it pass on by for the next 10 years.
How is Mark Robinson’s behavior evidence of mental illness? Point to experts who have evaluated him.
I think Robinson’s ‘mental illness’ is something like ‘Ain’t quite right in the head.’ Something like ‘What weird idea about how the world works made him go into politics when he has a record of posting his sexual adventures on porn sites? Is he completely clueless about how the world works, dumber than a box of rocks, a cocksure sociopath, or something worse’ than having something wrong that can be described by the DSM. It’s more overly-cocky sociopathy plus doesn’t understand the Internet.
“Mentally ill’ in Robinson’s case isn’t a diagnosis, it’s Occam’s razor contrasted against him doing some really stupid shit. IMHO the world (and people) are a lot more complicated than that, but Mark du-ude, what were you thinking?
Not quite right in the head, mental, not playing with a full deck, are observations about strangeness. Mentally ill, however, is a diagnosis.
This kind of “Ain’t quite right in the head” seems to be a requirement for elected GOP.
I mean, is this guy stupid or crazy or what? Did he think he wouldn’t get caught and that voters wouldn’t find out or did he think voters wouldn’t care?
And by “this guy” am I talking about Mark Robinson or Anthony D’Esposito?
Please, the man has depression. I want a slave posted as a black man in North Carolina? You all think it is some cocky sassy con man junk. He self destructed. He put himself through career destruction. And, yep, you all are proving my point. How about Senator Menendez? We just see the tip of the iceberg in these cases.
Reply to Rayne
September 23, 2024 at 9:12 pm
Ain’t that the truth. From West Virginia:
https://www.wtrf.com/top-stories/state-senator-michael-maroney-arrested-again/
I’d say all these GOP KKKlowns need help, but they don’t believe in it. Pretty difficult to find your bootstraps while you’re driving drunk, etc.
Shhhh… don’t say that out loud or they’ll try pulling up their bootstraps while driving. I can already see it now, some jackass driving a Tesla on auto-pilot…
Robinson sounds like a garden variety con man to me. I don’t see any signs of mental derangement. Such evidence as I have seen is superficial, so I could be wrong, but I did deal often with con artists and Robinson looks typical.
On a cursory attempt at generating a psychiatric differential diagnosis list here, the lack of relevant info is too profound to speculate. Need way way more history. Baseline behaviors? New symptoms? Old symptoms? I want to know medical issues as well….
I’ll never forget a consult I received at midnight (3rd year resident at the time) from the local ER on a similarly aged gentleman who presented with mania (hyperverbal, circumstantial/tangential thoughts, grandiose, impulsivity, etc)….they wanted me to admit him to the psych unit. Tracked down his daughter, listed as his emergency contact, and she reported he no history of similar symptoms. One does not just spontaneously develop bipolar disorder at age 58.
I agreed to admit the patient but only after the ER doc obtained a head CT. Low and behold, acute hemorrhagic stroke, right frontal lobe. He needed (and got) an emergency neuro consult with a stroke code…..not psych. Lots of medical problems can present with a wide range of psychiatric symptoms.
Thank you. Very helpful perspective. Routh appears to have had problems for at least several years but has it gotten worse recently? Hard to say without more info, more evaluation.
I think suspecting ‘Routh plus Iran’ is making assumptions without much evidence, because Iran has for years been one of the poster-children (admittedly after Israel and Vietnam) for mishandled U.S. policy. It’s hard to think in a sustained way about U.S. policy without asking ‘What the fuck were the people in charge of our relationship with Iran thinking?’ And ‘why were those fuckups ever allowed to touch policy again?’ So the idea that Routh’s got some consciousness of that country? I think it’s probably unremarkable.
In the world of a guy like Routh, who wants to be at least a minor player without (I’ll leave mental-health alone) the disciplined education/experience necessary to understand either the big picture or the details, Iran is probably one of the strange-attractors his mind wanders to from time-to-time when he tries to understand the world. (It’s certainly one of mine!) And Iran has a certain ‘plucky underdog’ appeal even if you hate their government.
Bring some more evidence and I’ll take the idea seriously but for now I don’t see it.
I would add Cuba to your list of poster children.
Yeah. So many poster-children!
I was a little young for Cuba, started to notice the problems with the U.S. approach with Vietnam, Iran was the next obvious one, (let’s not forget Nicaragua… I actually visited there around 1987) but I think Iran held first place from 1979 until 2001, at which point Iraq became the focus for U.S. stupidity… and so on.