The Midway Point of Kamala Harris’ Campaign
In the first half of her campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris raised $361 million in a month and another $47 million in a day.
In the first half of her campaign, Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris and encouraged 400,000 people to register to vote.
In the first half of her campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris pantsed Donald Trump in a debate, out-TVing a TV pro.
I’ve been tracking the weird timing of this race. Sunday begins the 22nd month that Trump has been running. Because his damn campaign has been going on forever, he’s been plodding through the 92% mark of his campaign for days, stuck in slow-motion.
Today marks the 54th day of Harris’ campaign, with 53 left. Thus begins the second half of her campaign.
There are still things that could unsettle the race. Less than a month ago I listed six things that might yet do so:
- Kamala avoided any violent protests at the DNC (though her campaign also refused to grant a speaking slot to anyone supporting Palestinians, something that could affect her Michigan support).
- There’s no sign of a ceasefire in Israel, and Joe Biden has done little to forestall Israeli actions as they move to the West Bank.
- The debate did turn out to be pretty tumultuous, and it seems to have given Harris a slight boost in the polls — but thus far, it’s not clear how much.
- Between that and a particularly bad outing in New York last week, there is finally increased focus on how unhinged the former President is.
- His attack on immigrants in Springfield has led to political violence; I fear there will be more as Trump gets more desperate.
- Trump won’t be sentenced before the election (which could have helped as much as hurt him), but a superseding indictment will provide prosecutors a way to lay out his alleged crimes two weeks from now, on September 26.
On top of bad campaign news, Trump’s financial plight may begin to dominate headlines. In apparent response to Trump’s debate, his social media company crashed harder than it already was.
Unless the stock crashes some more, Trump can start unloading his Truth Social stock on Thursday. Devin Nunes seems more intent on using it to engage in diplomatic discussions with small Balkan nations.
On Monday, Trump and his failsons (including Barron) will unveil their next grift, a cryptocurrency. As Truth Social was, this is largely an effort to cash in on Trump’s popularity — but doing so significantly depends on winning the election and installing a captive SEC Chair.
If nothing else, the focus on Trump’s grift might finally get the press to focus on how much Trump defrauds his rubes.
Meanwhile, the House GOP is doing what the House GOP does: struggling to keep the government open. There’s a non-zero chance their incompetence, long hidden by supine journalists, will become visible to voters in an epic way in the next few weeks. Trump is rooting for a shutdown in the same way he made the GOP kill the border bill.
Against that background, the things that happen in the last 7.5 weeks of a campaign will happen like they normally do: volunteers will continue to call potential voters, try to get them to commit to voting for Harris, and then start encouraging voters to vote early. Harris will have extra help from unions this year to get out the vote, but she’ll need extra support from lawyers to fight back against Trump’s fuckery.
But even as that’s happening, Harris is still reaching out to new voting groups, which is one reason I’m obsessed about the timing.
The accelerated timeline shrinks the time between the moment something — perhaps an endorsement from some disgusted Republican or seeing Harris’ stature in the debate — leads a voter to first consider the possibility of voting for her and the moment they have to decide. The endorsement by the Cheneys is about creating a permission structure for Republicans to do so — to help them believe they can be patriots even if voting for a Democrat. Swift’s endorsement makes it more likely younger women will make more effort that twenty-somethings normally do to turn out. With more time, the Vice President might convert more voters, might get more voters to decide to show up.
Trump is doing everything he can to help, though, spreading neo-Nazi lies about Haitian immigrants, bringing 9/11 denier Laura Loomer to the 9/11 memorial, and hosting events with Hitler fans who attacked the Capitol at his golf resort.
But at the halfway mark, this race is still neck-and-neck.
Donald Trump is making it more clear what a vote for him would mean. But there are still far too many American voters who want the con he’s selling.
So, halfway-ish there and per the debate the Former Orange Felon Guy has ‘concepts of a plan’ for health care.
I do not want to link to Xitter, but you can find it in a diary at DK.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/12/2269754/-This-is-the-Best-Snark-of-the-Presidential-Campaign-Thus-Far?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Hard to resist this after the Four Seasons Total Landscaping best shade evah about ‘concept’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEmCUZfjVYk
I can’t help but hear Peter Stormare say the phrase when I see the Four Seasons snark.
On a serious note – VOTE. Speak the truth to those that need to hear it – we are not voting for a person. Do not be distracted like the LCD MAGAts out there – while the snark is good when in context we are NOT voting for a person – we are voting for policies, a team and an agenda that person will be the face of.
Glad you linked to the propublica piece on Devin “Teats Up” Nunes visiting the new PM of North Macedonia, Mickoski, in company of two other Truth Social/Rumble big shots, Pavlovski & Lutnick. Shadow mercantile diplomacy in anticipation of a second round at the feeding trough. In addition to whatever the heck Grenell is up to these days in Albania, Serbia, Venezuela on behalf of Trump 2.0, besides building hotels with Jared.
Heather Cox Richardson said his crowd in AZ was 550 yesterday. Harris had 17,000 in NC. He is still spewing the lies, going on and on about the pets. She also reported on Taylor Swift again last night at MTV video music awards encouraging more people to register to vote. There is ballot fuckery in NC, sounds like they are going to run afoul of Defense Department rules on getting ballots overseas. Here is the link for HCR. https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-12-2024
Tucson.com reported his crowd was 2,000.
Let’s do a little OSINT. The Linda Ronstadt Music Hall has a capacity of 2195. Because of the venue this crowd was always going to be limited to well under 5000.
AP Newswroom photos has about 100 photos from the Trump campaign event (search: “donald trump”). Most of them focus on Trump with maybe a dozen photographs of the attendees. Most of the photos are framed in a way that avoids a comprehensive view of the venue with attendees.
There is, however, one photo during the national anthem taken at 3:40 PM (photo ID: 24256708146877) which is aimed from the floor below toward the back of the hall. The upper balcony is only partially populated, and some of them are likely media as there are lights in the upper left of the frame in the balcony.
The number is likely more than 500 but 2000 is a stretch by several hundred.
Not sure where HCR got the 550 number. It looks at least halfway full in pics below of the 2200 seat venue. Obviously, still super lame.
https://tucson.com/news/election/photos-former-president-donald-trump-holds-rally-in-tucson/collection_750ae58e-7091-11ef-b41e-1ffe8621d1e9.html#11
The whole point of talking about crowd size is to taunt Trump. Otherwise, who cares if it was 550 or 2,000?
Crowdsize = proxy for dick size. Trump’s response to taunts correlates to opposition’s size claims. He is and has been desperate to assure the public of his manhood.
Just how small is Trump’s dick? The smaller the media and opposition report, the more unhinged Trump will be.
In this case size does matter.
Yeah – fuckery indeed in NC.
I checked yesterday, both myself and Mrs. Benji are still registered and will show up on Election day.
But the boost for the Convict Guy via removing Kennedy after it was permissible by law reeks of Art Pope behind the scenes dark money.
Super useful reporting. Not available elsewhere, but should be. Spouse told me last night about a surprising new piece of reporting from the NYTimes — Harris and Walz are calling Vance “weird.” Seemed to spouse, who reads three print newspapers / day, that this was a really good move for the Dems. Oh my dear god.
So the NYT is only about a month behind EW and time is tight. On the other hand, the debate seems to have woken them up a bit. Keeping us informed and giving the big-money press cheat sheets so they have a clue, all this is god’s work.
“Sunday begins the 22nd month that Trump has been running.”
I’m not trying to be glib, but he’s been running since 2015. He announced his intent to run in 2020 at that time, and his intent to run for this election right after losing to Biden. I realize there are certain paperwork and campaign fundraising time frames the 22 months refer to, but his personal campaign has always been much more than that.
I’m not convinced. 1. The Wall Street Journal has published the first stories contradicting the Republican nominee about inflation, and also describing the reality of the candidate’s poor debate performance. They may have followed that with an opinion piece by Mr. Rove that further described the debate results. 2. The race will be determined by new registrants. Ms. Swift is either intentionally or accidentally in line with the observations of Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier that non poll information points to a different result than the poll data. I think it was Rosenberg who observed the polls are information about how people will vote, but they provide little guidance on who will vote.
Ms. Swift does not make marketing errors. And I suspect that the Murdoch media conglomerate knows where the readership and TV audience are headed.
And its possible Ms. Wheeler’s earlier observation that the poll industry is hopelessly infected by gamblers trying to change the odds.
Speaking of Murdoch media, the Smartmatic defamation case against Fox News is ongoing. A Delaware judge said yesterday that Smartmatic’s defamation case against Newsmax may continue; news about that case may chill the Murdochian outlets from going hard for Trump this time, in addition to the pain of the Dominion defamation case settlement.
Few things:
First, we would realize the actual impact of the debate within a week or two. It takes time. First, because most of the more reliable polls did not have yet post-debate results. And also because some of the impact of the debate is people talking about the debate after the fact. And for people who are still undecided or just leaning to one side but persuadable, it could take time to process it and make a decision. So we’ll see what would happen in the polls in a week or more.
When trying to define Harris in order to attack her, Trump’s campaign tried several things. First, they tried to paint her as extreme/communist. And they also tried to convince people she is stupid (if you google “word salad”, there would be a lot of references to Harris). The debate should put an end to both attempts.
I agree. We may see a few points movement immediately, but the way this campaign will work is to slowly build support as people grow comfortable voting for her.
Landslide is coming. Interest rate cut. Movie. Legal. FBI. Ukraine. And more. And Dems have an actual GOTV machine, GOP does not. 4m 2020 Trump voters have switched to Harris according to recent poll crosstabs and Dem enthusiasm is 20 points higher.
A landslide is not coming. Harris could beat Trump with a thin margin, but it is not likely to be a landslide.
Harris had a great debate, so I think her chances are slightly better than a coin toss. Especially if she continues to have a good campaign. But I don’t expect much more than Biden’s results in 2020.
A landslide is PROBABLY not coming.
But it’s possible there will be surprises.
Best way to lose is to decide a landslide is coming. Have we learned nothing from 2016?
In Philly I’ve been seeing Republican Voters Against Trump tv ads. I think they’re powerful. No hype, no fancy graphics or scary music, just a calm person making their case.
Let me just say I pity you and everyone in a battleground state for the next 55 days. It must be awfully hard to tune out the noise.
Indeed, the now twenty-two month long “official” Trump 2024 campaign was all about his need to avoid being prosecuted, convicted and sentenced before the 2024 election, refilling Trump’s personal bank accounts with donor money from the billionaires who support him in exchange for Trump lowering their taxes if he is elected, and fulfilling his obligations and promises he has made to Putin.
Like The Manchurian Candidate film/book, Trump is the Russian Candidate controlled by Putin.
Putin’s cash on hand and his personal control of Russia’s standing army and intelligence agencies are unmatched in the world. Even China’s Xi doesn’t have as much personal control over China’s financial, military and intelligence agencies as Putin has in Russia.
As long as Harris remains focused on winning the electoral college and continues to show Trump is the Russian Candidate that he truly is, she can defeat what I expect will a Putin led onslaught of money and disinformation released next month in coordination with Musk, Thiel and the other Trump supporting billionaires who’ve become Putin’s useful idiots.
Just my opinion & observation. What strikes me as beyond belief is the subliminal that is getting a pass as normal press dialogue when it is subliminally a harangue on a worldwide basis during wars. I.e. when the evil TFG, says Israel with be destroyed in two years if he isn’t elected. This just being one example of, on a non stop basis of his increasingly threatening insanities. All subliminal press. The absurdity! This coming from someone with a photo of, who (excuse my wording) shoved around an orb with Middle Eastern billionaires like the world was their golf course.
The idea that le “New Yorker’s,” think Rudy, are still mentally beating up the first responders. He brought a 911 denier to the 911 memorial! PUKE!
Lock them ALL up!
I agree that the government shutdown threat, like the scuttled border bill, represents Trump’s control over his party. It has been on my radar this whole election season for that reason, but also because it represents another area where Trump’s malignant narcissism is on display. That is, the government went through a disastrous shutdown during his administration (it went through two actually, I’m talking about the 2nd one, which was all his.) and he needs/needed Joe Biden to go through the same thing.
Trump either agreed or orchestrated to continually push it off, into election season, with plans to have it damage Biden as much as possible. But Biden is no longer the candidate.
Over time, congress generally and Johnson specifically have seemed to take pains to make shutdowns less damaging economically and politically, including the Save Act distraction. And I don’t follow that level of detail (but neither do other voters). With Biden out, the shutdown threat instead rocks some rep house elections, and were it to happen, it would give dem house and senate candidates, especially in the west and agricultural areas, a chance to make hay over it.
But if it continued, like Trump’s did, to the point of affecting the economy – the timing of the cryptocurrency push is even more of a con – bordering on traitorous. Similarly if it hampers the FBI or DOJ. The who and where of how this plays out will be revealing. Even if it ends with a whimper.