Fridays with Nicole Sandler

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45 replies
  1. HarryNLeadbelly says:

    Two things re Biden. I keep hearing about all these Dems who are supposedly attacking Uncle Joe’s stamina with the actual goal of getting rid of Kamala. But I never see actual examples, unless you count those who simply fail to spell out a plan that includes her, which doesn’t prove anything sinister. Plus, in the past week or so everyone I’ve heard says, yes, of course, she should lead the ticket, it’s a no-brainer, and anything less would be catastrophic, full-stop. Maybe there are some slimy exceptions but I don’t think it’s accurate to paint the broad movement with this brush.

    Second, apparently just before the Trump shooting Biden had a call with the Dem caucus that really shook up a lot of reps. Not hard to imagine since I’ve been shaken many times watching him during and since the debate. The point is this is not primarily about the polling. And it’s not about his ability to govern. It’s witnessing firsthand his grave limitations when it comes to prosecuting the case against the aspiring dictator. Without better short-term memory and mental discipline he simply has no realistic way to turn widespread impressions of the race around – unless he makes the heroic decision to stand down and become a revered elder in the one party that puts the preservation of democracy above personal power and ambition. The second George Washington. No, it may not work, but if handled nicely, it would instantly reengage that big swath of the electorate that has tuned out and decided they can’t abide either old man. Harris would be massively energizing. It’s very hard for me to imagine her losing a race Biden could have won; on the other hand, I can easily imagine her bringing enough momentum (prosecuting the GOP) to win the House and keep the Senate.

    • Rayne says:

      Do you hear any of these unnamed sources as well as the loud mouthed Dems who’ve spoken out actually saying, “Step aside and let Kamala helm the ticket”?

      Point them out.

      It would do you well to note how many of these same unnamed sources and loud mouthed Dems are not BIPOC.

      • SelaSela says:

        Betty McCollum and Kathy Castor both explicitly called for Harris to step in. Probably others too. They are just two examples.

        Not sure if it’s relevant how many are BIPOC, but at least some of the congress members who publicly called Biden to quit are. Including Gabe Vasquez, Marc Veasey, and Chuy Garcia. And according to reports, Obama is also trying to convince Biden to quit.

        There is no doubt that many pundits and probably some of the congress members have a different fantasy candidate they prefer, but it becomes increasingly clearer Biden is unlikely to be replaced by anyone other than Harris. For several reasons.

        1. Money. Harris have an access for 250 million dollars that any other candidate won’t have.
        2. A contested convention would be disastrous for the Democrats. The only way to avoid contested convention is if Biden publicly endorses Harris. In this case, other likely candidates would be discouraged to join the bid.
        3. The optics of skipping over Kamala Harris for a white man (or even white woman), would be really bad for the democrats. So bad that it would cost them electorally and they would risk loosing votes.

      • HarryNLeadbelly says:

        Respectfully, you turned my challenge on its head before pointing to any actual evidence of what you fear. The stakes could not be higher, so I understand the impulse to see something sinister when one vehemently disagrees strategically. Still, it’s a shame to quickly distrust all these proven defenders of democracy, accusing them of suddenly having petty characters. In fact, it is precisely their desire to proceed with great care that leaves them vulnerable to such attacks. When, say, Pelosi and Obama send obscure signals, they are trying to have an impact that, first, allows Biden to actually make the decision and choose the best “pass the torch” strategy, and, more importantly, one that doesn’t damage him irreparably should he decide to stay in. (Yes, he does continue to show openness to exiting, while necessarily maintaining he’s in until the end — I’d present evidence of this but my comment would get too long.) The fact that now the calls are becoming so much more explicate simply indicates people (who have heard a lot more of Biden than I have) are extraordinarily, deeply concerned. To diminish this concern as political positioning is to refuse to consider the writing on the wall they are desperately pointing to.

        Anyway, the movement is called “Pass the torch,” which certainly suggests to Kamala, but it’s understandable that they would still be eager to resist spelling out all the details in public, to minimize palace-coup narratives, hoping the whole transition will be characterized as a unified, heroic movement to save democracy. The pressure is maximal now because the window for such a successful performative is fast closing. These people and I will do our best to support Biden if he refuses to budge, but we deeply fear the following months would be a steady drip of bad news cementing the electorate in cynicism and despair.

        That said, here’s the type of statement I’d like to hear more of, assuming the calls keep getting more explicit. Rep. Betty McCollum, Minnesota:

        “To give Democrats a strong, viable path to winning the White House, I am calling upon President Biden to release his delegates and empower Vice President Harris to step forward to become the Democratic nominee for president.”

        There is no other viable option. But I tell you what, if you can show me some examples, not of fear, but of gross opportunism coming from the political ranks, then I’ll spend a little more time doing “homework,” as you put it. Meanwhile, my contention stands, that these fears are fueling unsubstantiated attacks against leaders who are continuing to place democracy first, second, and third during this unprecedented moment in history. For starters, you can see this partial list of statements, none of which suggests the slightest desire for a palace coup: https://apnews.com/article/biden-democrats-debate-convention-virtual-ac84492b500ab3fd972076b592113e5a
        (I know this comment is long, but you did explicitly challenge me, so I’m trying to respond as accurately as I can.)

        • HarryNLeadbelly says:

          Just noticed this too, which is a good template, from Mark Takano, who I realize is from California, which makes him suspect, but it shows greater consolidation of the only viable approach (Biden saves democracy):

          “President Biden’s greatest accomplishment remains saving democracy in 2020. He can and must do so again in 2024 — by passing the torch to Vice President Harris as the Democratic Party Presidential nominee.”

          Personally, I’d like to see more mentions of what made George Washington so great, with grand comparisons to Biden.

        • earlofhuntingdon says:

          Those “proven defenders of democracy” are politicians with their own patrons and agendas. They don’t necessarily overlap with Biden’s.

          Getting things done without putting your name on them is the height of bureaucratic and political power. Dick Cheney was famous for it. It’s not necessarily an attempt to let a weary leader appear to step down of his own accord. I imagine Biden sees it, in fact, as a way to force him out without paying a political or electoral price.

        • jdmckay8 says:

          I caution you against keeping an ear to close to the ground, and processing everything you hear. The media (including MSNBC) have been scavenging every tidbit from unnamed sources, that Pelosi/Obama/Clintons have said this and that. Next hour, the story changes. To engage that stuff and take it seriously, your brain is going to get bent in different direction every hour, when in fact they’re reporting he/she said bird poop stuff as though it was news.

          Everything I’ve seen from reliable Dem insiders has consistently said Pelosi is not advocating for anything, and telling her colleagues to make up their own minds. Obama is quietly supportive of Biden, just the opposite of all the rumors, and volunteering to help any way he can. Same for both Clintons. AOC made a really great statement on video yesterday, should not be hard to find if you haven’t seen it.

          Rayne’s links above are good reading.

          Take a deep breath, pet your cat/dog and hug your significant other. Go have an ice cream. This is going to shake our pretty soon. No point getting vertigo in the process.

    • earlofhuntingdon says:

      “Uncle Joe” is a phrase more commonly applied to Joe Stalin than Joe Biden.

      Regarding not seeing examples of what you call a purported effort to rid the Dem ticket of both Biden and Harris, see, Lee Atwater and the Southern Strategy, and the need to hide, and use code and indirect references for what you’re really trying to achieve. For simplicity, see the second paragraph of the Nation article.

      https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/exclusive-lee-atwaters-infamous-1981-interview-southern-strategy/
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

      • HarryNLeadbelly says:

        As you know, this is not evidence, it’s just a theory that supports your strategic viewpoint.

        • Clare Kelly says:

          Something like this?

          HarryNLeadbelly
          says:
          July 20, 2024 at 12:50 pm

          “I’d present evidence of this but my comment would get too long.”

          And yet, EOH had supporting citations for his argument.

        • earlofhuntingdon says:

          So you didn’t read the Nation article by Rick Perlstein. Happy coincidence, since it doesn’t support your viewpoint.

  2. Magbeth4 says:

    Re: Biden dropping out; today, I was so outraged by the RNC convention and Trump’s performance, I drove to to my local Democratic Headquarters and spent an hour with a wonderful woman who showed me how I could turn that outrage into canvassing my neighborhood. I left with signs, etc., and a sense of determination to keep plugging on in Biden’s behalf. AOC’s video on X convinced me that the Group Think around the Drop Biden effort did not match the reality. She warned about the polls and the poor Media analysis.

    I’m not giving up the Ship! Defeatism is Russia-bot-fueled, for sure.

    • pH unbalanced says:

      Yeah, I got laid off from my job this week, and I’m definitely thinking that what I should do with my newly free time is find some election work to do.

      (Finances will be fine for a while, so that isn’t a worry.)

      • Beavis C Dawg says:

        PH
        Sorry to hear that. I don’t know where your at but in OH we are poll workers being retired. The usual pay is about $125 for the day which is 16 hours and carries an oath (Ever Changing) before each election plus training. It is a satisfying job and we enjoy it. Most voters will actually thank you for working the polls. I don’t how your state staff their elections but don’t expect to work in your home precinct. They tend to move them around here because there is always a shortage and they need an equal number of each party for staff.

  3. Clare Kelly says:

    “In an impassioned defense of President Biden, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York offered a frank assessment of the risks of removing him from the presidential ticket in an Instagram Live that aired early Friday, shortly after Donald Trump delivered a lengthy speech at the Republican National Convention.

    “I’m going to be honest for them. I’m in these rooms. I see what they say in conversations,” she said. “A lot of them are not just interested in removing the president, they are interested in removing the whole ticket.”

    [snip]

    “Biden kind of stomps with older people, like electorally, which is one of the strongest and most consistent electorates. And it’s actually a hard electorate for Democrats to win,” she said.

    Shannon Larson
    Boston Globe
    July 19, 2024
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/19/nation/ocasio-cortez-president-biden-critics-aoc/

    I recommend reading the piece, unless you’ve already seen the Instagram Live post.

    • Clare Kelly says:

      Rolling Stone has the AOC Insta Live post.

      It’s worth a watch:
      “AOC Slams Effort to Oust Biden in Lengthy Livestream
      The New York representative told viewers that many in the “donor class” and “elites” are looking to scrap the Biden-Harris ticket in its entirety”
      https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/aoc-biden-instagram-live-1235063999/

      She is in ‘the rooms’ where these conversations are taking place. She is a somewhat revered figure with Gen Z voters who were quite influential in both 2020 and 2022, some of whom are rightfully outraged by this extremist Israeli government’s actions.

      I’m not sure that those complaining about “down ballot” repercussions of the ticket voters chose in the primaries, are aware of their self-fulfilling prophecy: I’ve stopped contributing to any of their campaigns for the foreseeable future and I don’t think I’m alone.

      Legacy media loves a horse race. We know this. Gleeful ‘Dems in disarray’-esque ledes get clicks. It confounds me that journalists seem unable to remember the prior administration’s treatment of the press, at a minimum.

      This is the same matchup as 2020, but with even higher stakes. Authoritarianism has had close to four years to double down. Now they have a stronger ‘army’ of unscrupulous legal advisors and a court system weighed in their favor.

      Since at least November of last year, I’ve been petitioning my government daily over the humanitarian failure in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. I had my ‘come to Jesus’ moment with my primary vote and concluded that overall, this administration has exceeded my expectations…and a MAGA administration would be far worse for humanity, writ large.

      Marcy noted in this podcast that this will all shake out soon. In the interim, I will not forget who bore the bigger, existential picture in mind…and who did not.

  4. xyxyxyxy says:

    re-keeping non-white Kamala away from nomination if Biden drops out, in “We’ve Got People” Ryan Grim writes how close Jesse Jackson got to the Dem nomination for the presidency and how white Dems did everything they could to try to keep Harold Washington from becoming mayor of Chicago.
    Also about the success of AOC.

    • earlofhuntingdon says:

      “Non-white Kamala?” The phrase suggests it’s a failing, owing to a lack of something, an odd assessment.

      • xyxyxyxy says:

        Yes, Democrats have tried to keep people that are not lily white off the ballot, like they did with Catholics until, I’m not sure why, 1960 Kennedy

  5. P J Evans says:

    Elseweb, I’ve started YELLING at the people pushing the “not Biden” stuff. Not one of them seems to have looked into the laws about candidates’ names on ballots, or ballot deadlines, or regulations on transferring campaign funding. They all seem to think it will just magically happen the way they want.
    They aren’t getting the support they think they have, either. Not from Dems, anyway.

    • Magnet48 says:

      I have read statements from alleged democrats that say not getting on ballots is actually a non-issue. WTACTUALF? Unless they are all plotting to go to war if republicans pull this on the ballots I simply am unable to make any logical sense of it.

    • ButteredToast says:

      These are red herrings. There are no laws prohibiting Harris rather than Biden being on state ballots, because Biden is not the Democratic nominee until he is formally nominated by delegates. And yes, this is true now for Ohio, too. Meanwhile, campaign funds could be transferred to Harris.

      As for what Democrats want, the party is divided. But it isn’t safe just to assume that the majority want Biden to remain the nominee based on anecdotal evidence or one’s personal opinion. For example, an AP-NORC poll conducted from July 11 to 15 found that 65% of Democrats (and 77% of independents) want Biden to withdraw. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of deep-blue Massachusetts found that 29% of Democrats are satisfied with Biden as nominee; 64% prefer someone else. A nationwide Emerson poll from this week has 36% of Democrats saying Biden is unfit to be the next POTUS; 40% of Black voters and 71% of independents say the same thing. Of course, wanting a different nominee isn’t equivalent to “unfit to be the next POTUS.” But if even, say, 20% of Democrats think Biden is unfit to be president, that suggests something far from a party united in support of the status quo. More significantly, it’s an enormous risk to plow ahead when so many of the Democratic  party’s own voters hold this view.

      Yell away, but doing so is not going to convince the Democrats and independents whose votes we need to win the election.

      • Clare Kelly says:

        Could you provide links to the polls you paraphrase, please?

        For example, this passage is from what I’m guessing you are referring to regarding “A nationwide Emerson poll from this week” :

        “A majority of white (54%) and Hispanic (55%) voters think Biden should withdraw, while a majority of Black voters (65%) think he should not. “

        [snip]

        “ Among Democratic Primary voters, 64% think Biden should not withdraw, while 36% think he should. 64% of Republican Primary voters think Biden should withdraw, 36% think he should not”

        [snip]

        “The sample for the most recent national poll (7/15-16) is n=2,000, with a credibility interval of +/-2.1%. The June-July national poll (6/30-7/2) consists of n=1,000 registered voters with a credibility interval of +/-3%.”

        https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls/

        Is that one of the polls you paraphrased?

        Thanks in advance.

        • ButteredToast says:

          My apologies; I absolutely should have provided links.

          That is indeed the Emerson poll in question. The numbers I gave are available in the crosstabs, provided as part of the complete poll results. (Of course, crosstabs should be approached with more caution.)

          The Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll results are available here: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/19/metro/read-full-results-suffolk-universityboston-globe-poll/ . The sample was 500 Massachusetts registered voters; polling was conducted from July 16-18, and the margin of error of +/- 4.4 % points.

          For AP-NORC poll results: https://apnorc.org/projects/most-say-biden-should-withdraw-from-the-presidential-race/ . The poll reports 67% of white Democrats, 64% of Hispanic Democrats, and 49% of Black Democrats favoring a Biden withdrawal. On methodology: “The nationwide poll was conducted July 11-15, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,253 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.”

  6. dopefish says:

    July 27, 2016: “Russia, if you’re listening,” Trump said, “I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.”

    That was right before these events mentioned by Dr. Wheeler (about 43 mins in)
    July 29, 2016: Roger Stone to Paul Manafort: “good things happening..” (Podesta files coming)
    Aug 2, 2016: Paul Manafort meets the Russian spy Kilimnik
    Aug 3, 2016: Stone/Manafort meeting “I know how to save his ass”

    • Savage Librarian says:

      Also on August 3, 2016, Trump had a rally with 16,000 people in Jacksonville. He brought Michael Flynn with him. But he was an hour late. Others filled in. Jennifer Carroll started it off with a rousing speech. Very charismatic. Her job was to persuade Democrats, especially the Black community, to switch to Trump.

      One of the things Trump said to a journalist that day:

      “I have a lot of respect for Jacksonville. Many, many friends in Jacksonville and I’m here a lot, actually.”

      Trump really excelled at attending rallies to stir up enthusiasm.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rallies_for_the_2016_Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign

      “List of rallies for the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign”

  7. Dissembling Bling says:

    “13 heroic US service members were tragically and needlessly killed. 45 others were horrifically wounded. Nobody ever talks about them. No arms, no legs, face explosions, horrifically wounded. And by the way, we have a man in this room who’s running for the US Senate from a great state, Nevada named Sam Brown, who paid the ultimate price. Thank you, Sam. Thank you, Sam.”
    I did not see where Trump pointed, but I am guessing Sam is not dead.

  8. David Brooks says:

    Whoever ends up on the ballot, and if (may God and all her angels forfend) Trump wins, we have made sure there are going to be a lot of furious “I told you so” conversations between Biden and Harris boosters. Including, potentially, a marriage like mine.

    Let’s get those angels working on the campaign too.

    • Rayne says:

      I am not at all worried about “I told you so” arguments.

      I am worried about the roundups ahead of mass deportations and the death squads which will begin immediately after the election should Trump win.

      https://newrepublic.com/post/183652/trump-ally-exposed-horrific-hit-list-political-enemies

      If “hit lists” have already been compiled, there are MAGA who are only waiting for the perceived permission slip to begin their retribution.

      If you’re not wholly focused on winning now, you had better be thinking about dealing with the fallout.

      • Magnet48 says:

        Wholehearedly with you on this. I signed onto the 1400 plus letter. I am appalled by this added difficulty to the election. Much of it is funded by Peter Theil, Nate Silver is now working for his company taking bets on the election, over $265 million in wagers. These bastards are betting on our future as if it’s all just a game. A commenter on Heather Cox Richardson called the republican party “an insane asylum with the door unlocked. We have the key. We are the key.” I can ill afford it but I contributed. These billionaires are creating the situations on which they are betting for fun. It amuses them to be playing with us & our lives.

      • David Brooks says:

        I concede; that was a poorly thought-out comment by a comfortable white guy. And there is a 2016 parallel given the Bernie Bros and PUMAS, quickly shelved for the most part in the face of the need for unified resistance.

  9. Clare Kelly says:

    Replying to HarryNLeadbelly
    says:
    July 20, 2024 at 12:50 pm

    Re: “I’d present evidence of this but my comment would get too long.”

    I found the above breathtaking, for a number of reasons.

    Perhaps you could support your position via evidence, concisely, on the open thread.

  10. -mamake- says:

    Just now listening – around 38-39 minutes in – Marcy points out the folly of Don Jr bringing in JD Vance (backed by those who prefer him over trump).

    Perhaps this is exactly what Don Jr wants – to have someone else release his inheritance?
    Just a thought.

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