2024 Presidential Election: New Hampshire Primary Results
[NB: check the byline, thanks. /~Rayne]
Others have done a better job with an economy of words explaining situations. The New Hampshire primary held yesterday is such an occasion.
In this case not only are fewer words better but the adage a picture is worth a thousand words also holds true.
Democratic Party results:
(source: Ann Lipton on Mastodon)
As of 2:44 a.m. ET, Joe Biden has won the New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate taking at least 51.3% of the vote. Only 15,354 unprocessed votes remain and may include those cast by a few doofuses who chose ineligible foreign-born Cenk Uygur who in a post on the dead bird app asked voters yesterday to write him in.
Republican Party results:
I wish there was a way to use a trigger or content warning here but I haven’t found one yet. I hope you had your barf bag or waste can handy.
(source: lolgop on Mastodon)
As of 1:35 a.m. ET, the reanimated orange-tinted wannabe-dictator corpse has won the New Hampshire GOP primary taking 54.7% of the votes counted so far compared to Nikki Haley’s 43.5%.
For ease of comparison, here are links to the 2020 and 2024 NH primary results via Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Hampshire_Republican_presidential_primary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Republican_presidential_primary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary
This is an open thread.
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If the walkout is still active, please observe the picket line and do not use Conde Nast materials in comments. Thank you.
The walkout affects Vanity Fair, Vogue, GQ, Allure, Architectural Digest, Bon Appétit, Condé Nast Traveler, Epicurious, Glamour, Self, Teen Vogue.
I’ll bet the pesky youths at Teen Vogue who are the instigators here. Ever since they started veering out of their lane into politics, it’s been trouble trouble trouble.
/s
Or, you know, maybe they have something to teach the rest of Conde Nast.
Thanks for the Gen Z chuckle (with them, not agin’ them) and the lovely ear worm from my play list:
Ray LaMontagne, “Trouble”.
I love the ‘red carpet’ on the picket line.
Oh, I took the “trouble trouble trouble” to be from Professor Harold Hill from ‘The Music Man’ ! That is another earworm for you.
Epicurious videos on YT were for a short time a family viewing staple. The “three levels” videos are pretty cool, but easy enough to respect the picket at this point.
Only CN publication I might cite at EW would be the New Yorker.
Full list of Conde Nast’s publications from their site:
AD
ALLURE
ARS TECHNICA
BON APPÉTIT
CONDÉ NAST JOHANSENS
CONDÉ NAST TRAVELER
EPICURIOUS
GLAMOUR
GQ
HOUSE & GARDEN
LA CUCINA ITALIANA
LOVE
PITCHFORK
SELF
TATLER
TEEN VOGUE
THEM
THE NEW YORKER
THE WORLD OF INTERIORS
VANITY FAIR
VOGUE
VOGUE BUSINESS
WIRED
Thanks for that list; the only publication I would use (and had no idea was owned by CN) is ArsTechnica; which is usually an excellent source for tech-related stuff.
It was unlikely Haley would win, but she got nearly 45% of the vote. That was good. Trump was hoping he’d get a blowout win so she would drop out and he wouldn’t have to campaign in the primary anymore. Now he does. It’s tiring and costly for him, keeps him from focusing on Biden and he’s got all his trials he has to deal with. I hope Haley stays in the race until the actual delegate count makes it impossible for her to win.
OT – Based on that picture with article it’s looking like Trump is getting sloppy with his make-up. Could this be a sign of him degrading?
When a person (or system for that matter) begins to decline self maintenance is one of the first things to be affected. I pay close attention to self maintenance in my geriatric practice.
Well, I don’t come here for news I can use, but this I can. Thanks
I’m beginning to believe that even if he’s found guilty of any one of his multitudinous crimes, Trump will never serve time for any of his deeds. Appeals will take time and by then he won’t be competent to stand trial or be sentenced.
It’s also true for cats. It’s a really bad sign when they stop cleaning themselves.
There are many photos out there over the last handful of years showing Trump in less-than-stellar foundation application. Because we don’t know if he has help it’s difficult to say if this is his personal care slipping or if he’s not noticing someone else’s application is slipping, or if there were other extenuating circumstances.
I think the reports of his odor are more telling, especially since symptoms of some forms of neurological decline include an increasing loss of smell.
ADDER: this photo by AP in 2008 shows a lighter application of foundation but as in photo in the post the foundation is obvious.
Thanks Rayne. Wow – the make-up application is extreme in the above post. Apparently, he does his own hair and make-up.
https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2019/02/trump-does-his-own-makeup
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/12/6/20998822/trump-orange-concealer-bronx-colors
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/business/trump-taxes-hair.html
Makes me wonder about cataracts – they mess up color vision as well as focus.
I think he’s trying to cover some seriously pockmarked facial skin. His post-Iowa photos looked like a lunar eclipse. Trump’s entire appearance is his own attempt to Dorian Gray himself into what he believes his followers expect, from the Fosdick Flop combover (see Michael Wolff for a description of how Trump engineers this) to the baggy suit-pants.
He is terrified of us (or them) seeing him for what and who he is. That starts with the physical truth (“6 foot 3 and 215 pounds”) and goes to his self-loathing and fearful core.
I’ll differ and say that his more recent appearance looks like a combination of increasingly bad eyesight, declining physical coordination (think lifting his hand up and holding it at face level for more than a minute at a time), and a possible effect of a drug he’s taking.
Parkinson’s and the drug Levodopa do weird things to facial skin texture, for example. Nobody’s asking him anything about his health in a way he can’t skirt.
“Parkinson’s and the drug Levodopa do weird things to facial skin texture, for example.”
So can fast-food addiction.
The hormones in Trump’s hamberders, the saturated fats and peroxidated, reused fryer oil, the PFA-tainted wrapping paper, the Aspartame in his Diet Cokes—none of them are doing Donald’s health any good.
Luckily for Trump, he was the healthiest president EVER, so no worries! /s
True, but I’ve had a family member who didn’t eat a metric shit ton of fast food whose skin took on an oily coarse appearance after they began Levodopa while being treated for Parkinson’s-like symptoms. The texture changed after Levodopa was discontinued but their skin was still affected by their illness.
Between his problems with ramps and stairs, foot dragging, and dyskinesia, some journalists need to do a better job of cornering him about his health. Sure, they’ll be banned from asking questions again but with a concerted effort the risk of banning can be minimized and Trump’s declining health can receive the appropriate amount of coverage it deserves.
Agreed—there’s clearly plenty wrong already, and what with the stress from the campaigning & court cases, his health is unlikely to improve.
Yes, he is big into “cover-ups.”
What an ugly creature. Pasty-faced blob of a mug. Beady snake eyes. Pouty kisser. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Yecch.
Trump’s outward appearance is not a reason why people shouldn’t vote for him.
The reason people shouldn’t vote for him is that he’s such an ugly creature *on the inside*.
He acts as if he has no morals, no conscience, no respect for others except a few powerful totalitarian dictators. He doesn’t accept the possibility of win-win scenarios; others must always lose so that he can win. He’s crude, rude, caustic and coarse. He’s unable to comprehend why someone like the late senator McCain could earn respect and admiration even from his political opponents.
He seems entirely consumed by self-interest. He always puts his own desires ahead of whats best for his country, which seems like the opposite of what voters should want from a President. His first presidency was a disaster for the U.S. on many levels, but if he gets a second one I expect things will be a lot worse.
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Trump’s ugliness is a reflection of his ugliness inside. After all this time voters have failed to ask themselves why he continues to put on a mask when it is so obvious and when he is sensitive about being called out for it. He’s not someone who genuinely cares about his appearance but someone going through long-practiced motions, which is about the best we could expect from him in terms of business management or governance.
Further, voters have failed to ask why his current appearance reflects a decline in personal care. As others have noted, a decline in personal care may be related to cognitive deficits like that in dementia.
There was an exit poll in NH that showed 83% of Nikki Haley voters would swing to Biden in the general.
To what degree those represent old school conservatives, Never Trumper center-right moderates, or lefties trying to jam the GOP primary, if you combine those results with the overall depressed turnout we’ve seen in both primaries so far… it’s not great news for the fascist steamroller.
It’s not a good sign for Trump. He’s basically the incumbent and should have done better in IA and NH. Biden did better and he didn’t campaign and wasn’t on the ballot. There’s definitely a lack of enthusiasm for Trump that will hurt him in November.
No one seems to notice that in 2020 Trump won Iowa with 95%+ ans NH with 84% Quite a fall !
I noticed too that a poll showed that 90% of voters in Iowa believed in the “Great lie” but he only got 56%.
Polls are only polls, but worth noting.
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Apples & oranges, though. He was the virtually unchallenged incumbent in 2020.
And still lost.
There’s hope.
A better comparison is Bush in 1992, when he got almost the same % against Buchanan.
The narrative then was that Bush was facing a fractured party, and a lot of clucking about how he had failed to meet expectations. Today’s headlines are just saying Trump has gotten another win, The Washington Post even calling it decisive.
Trump’s support is soft is the big lesson from Iowa and NH, but political reporters are easy to spin.
Horse race reporting is bullshit. News media needs to be slapped for it because it shapes public opinion using the stupidest “news” available instead of reporting on the candidates’ ability to govern effectively — or not be a goddamned criminal abusing public office at a minimum.
A big reason why reporters for the big outlets do it is because they have so little idea what is going on.
They drop into a location for a few days to a few weeks and they come from newsroom cultures that deliberately avoid following local press coverage. So they default to looking at a few sketchy polls and fundraising totals, plus whatever narratives are coming out of a few major consultants.
They don’t have any idea what voters care about, or even how to find out, and it shows.
Verdad.
“Not the odds, but the stakes”
~Jay Rosen
“ We have to be truthful, not neutral,” she urged. “I would make sure that you don’t just give a platform … to those who want to crash down the constitution and democracy.”
~Christiane Amanpour
Interview with Margaret Sullivan
The Guardian
“ With democracy on the ballot, the mainstream press must change its ways”
September 15, 2023
Buchanan won- a large majority of right wing Catholic jurists on SCOTUS (a plan that began with Scalia) – the overwhelming majority of states led by GOP governors and legislatures. Buchanan was in it for the long game.The race (if held today) between Biden and trump would be determined by the religious right vote in the electoral college-rich central states. A lengthy, 12-12-23, article by the SPLC, “Group Dynamics and Division of Labor within the Anti-LGBTQ and Pseudo Science Network…legacy of White supremacy and religious right aims….,” highlights a significant narrative that thwarts Democratic wins. Strategists want to pretend the Catholic vote is liberal and ignore the majority voting for Trump i.e. 3% more in 2020 than 2016 (cohort- White Catholics who attend church regularly). Forty percent of evangelicals are in name only, they’re culturally White supremacists.
Actually, based on the arguments above, and some reporting I’ve read, I’m rethinking my statement above. I can see the case that in some ways, Trump is an incumbent for purposes of this primary season, and “should have” done better in NH.
There’s also the stunning poll from Fox News showing that 35% of NH Repubs say they’re “never Trump” in the general election. That matches my hopes so much that I’m reluctant to credit it.
None of which belies Rayne’s observation that horse-race reporting is a harmful addiction of our media.
From what I saw, Haley’s reasonably strong showing was propelled by independent voters which, if it holds nationally, would mean Trump is not in a position of strength, no matter media’s fawning over him and his candidacy.
Haley’s math may be as simple as second place + trump conviction/ballot denial = first place.
But if she’s waiting for the justice system to complete that calculation she’s too late. We’re down to one case now, with no guarantee that a verdict will arrive in time to help her.
Even the republican candidates are being let down by the justice department.
I’m with you, Tulsa. He was already showing potential general-election weakness in Iowa, and New Hampshire shows how glaring it is. Biden has a huge opening here.
Beau of the Fifth Column (reporting from Central Florida) had a very interesting take on yesterday’s NH primary vote: https://youtu.be/roGDnS-I7cI
Speaking of running a corpse for president, I can heartily recommend Raise the Gipper!, a satirical political thriller about the 2012 election, in which Reagen is reanimated as a zombie and runs for president.
As for the 2024 election, I notice that while Trump earned more votes (as a percentage and absolute) this year than 2016, the total number of voters has gone down. This probably doesn’t bode well for his broader appeal.
Also: “Early exit polls showed that nearly half of the voters who made up the state’s GOP primary electorate weren’t registered Republicans and 6 percent of the voters personally identified as Democrats.” (Source: WaPo, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/23/takeaways-new-hampshire-primary-election/)
Good morning.
I believe that in 1984 Fritz Mondale suspected incumbent Reagan was cognitively impaired, but did not press the issue for tactical and patriotic reasons. That course will not be repeated in this election. Since so much voting is negative, it appears so far that people will turn out to vote against the former President.
This election will be about Trump.
The good news is that Haley has proven herself too appealing for Trump to choose as VP. By all accounts his ego will make him choose another non-entity. Speaker Johnson would certainly reinforce the “divine intervention” story and bring in some votes. And he’s bland enough.
So the plot from Angels & Demons (movie).
Maybe so. Somewhere I read that Trump was concerned he’d be bumped off by “normal” Republicans post-election if his VP was too popular, as a way for them to regain control over the party. These people are all about false flags and conspiracies.
That’s a very good point. He won’t be sure she wouldn’t steal the spotlight as vice president. And that’s something he would never risk.
“The good news is that Haley has proven herself too appealing for Trump to choose as VP.”
Ahh yes but if he were smart or as clever as Russian money has made him out to be, he will beat her up unmercifully in the next couple a primaries and then choose her as his running mate.
Cultists will believe almost anything, but my money wouldn’t be on him rehabilitating her. I suspect she’ll continue trying to distance herself from him without alienating the MAGA crowd (an impossibly narrow path) and he just won’t be able to do the politically smart thing and pick her. And Dems would have a field day with her flip-flopping (to say nothing of her promise to pardon him).
It depends on which demographic he thinks he needs to accrete to his base, but I’m sure he’d love to have his VP, ummm, anoint him as the chosen one. If the Freedom Caucus continues to lose faith in the Speaker, Johnson could resign from the House, clearing the way for months of inaction while another speaker is lured into the job. Lots of exposure to Dem attacks, of course, but Mike would move into the GOP think tank pantheon no matter what happens–a big career win for him.
There is an historical example of choosing a former rival as VP:
In 1960, JFK chose Lyndon Johnson (a bitter rival) as his running mate. It was a strategic move to help Kennedy win the election over Richard Nixon. After JFK was assassinated in 1963, Johnson became president, much to the chagrin of Robert Kennedy.
I voted for Haley to send a message, since I am undeclared. I would never vote for her in the general, but my town actually went for her by 500 votes. Evidently there are a lot of us protesting the traitor.
Something Trumpers are claiming is Democrats changed their registration to undeclared so they could vote against him for Haley. I wonder if that can happen.
That’s allowed in New Hampshire and did happen. Undeclared voters can fill out a form to re-register with a party just as soon as they’re done voting. So, it’s not something only that “Trumpers are claiming” but common practice in that state.
Also…any Dems registering as undeclared had to have changed their registration by last October in order vote in Tuesday’s primary for Haley. So, not like there was a last-minute rush…
Jane Mayer, from November:
https://nitter.net/JaneMayerNYer/status/1729511615832154272
Nov 28, 2023 · 2:44 PM UTC
Links to NYTimes, 11/28/23:
Koch Network Endorses Nikki Haley in Bid to Push G.O.P. Past Trump The support will give Ms. Haley more organizational strength in the field as she battles Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida for the No. 2 spot in the Republican presidential race.
A THREAD about that:
https://nitter.net/NickSurgey/status/1729502776185507917
Nov 28, 2023 · 2:09 PM UTC
From PR Watch in 2015, about Mike ROMAN:
Koch Spy Agency Led by Voter Fraud Huckster
https://www.prwatch.org/news/2015/11/12980/koch-spy-voter-fraud
Brendan Fischer 11/19/15
Makes me wonder what they know….as in how a certain SCOTUS case will go?
If SCOTUS keeps trump off the ballot (doubtfull, but you never know), Haley becomes the last woman standing.
Indeed. Halley has every incentive to hang in there in the event Trump, one way or another, is deemed no longer viable.
harpie, you found Mike Roman, the man who sure does get around–from sandbagging Fani Willis to…undercutting Donald Trump? How does that even make sense?
Maybe Mike Roman is just in it for himself. Wouldn’t that be a shock.
Seamus Hughes supporting journalism:
https://nitter.net/SeamusHughes/status/1749946041627996478
Jan 24, 2024 · 12:03 AM UTC
Could Nikki Haley be a place holder for a player to be named later?
Or is she running in case Trump’s cognitive decline accelerates or his legal woes become too much even for the Republicans to stomach?
PS. I don’t think that he applied the bronzer himself. But this was one horrible make up job.
Once upon a time, it was common for long shot Presidential candidates to run. Think about all the pieces you would need to put together for a serious run, financing, logistics, all sorts of political calculations and maneuvers for winning delegate, managing the media. Knowing who’s good, who’s reliable, who has local power you need on your side, it’s a lot of detail. Haley’s putting all that together on a national scale, with a little help from the Koch’s. That alone is worth her whole doomed run. She’ll be back in 2028, and if by a miracle Trump drops dead, so much the better for her.
There is some reporting that he does his own grooming:
https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2019/02/trump-does-his-own-makeup
Epstein did, why not Trump?
Ouch!!! lolol…
Unfortunately for your joke, Ghislaine Maxwell did most of Epstein’s grooming.
Tragic for the victims and their families, and unfortunate for the rest of society that these horrific acts weren’t treated with the gravity they deserved.
Here’s the beginning of Aaron Rupar’s TRUMP video thread from last night:
https://nitter.net/atrupar/status/1749982079079649365
Jan 24, 2024 · 2:26 AM UTC
… “by those people“
If she did win she’s gonna be under investigation
By Those People
within minutes
for the 5 little things I know about
((that Those People will find out about))
“And Nikki you have a lovely family and it would be a shame if anything happened to them. I am simply adored by people who live all around you in SC and some of them may have minor imperfections and get a little bit carried away and protective of me and it’s not hard for them to find the addresses of your loved ones. It’s not too late for you to come to your senses and join my other idolators like those here on stage.”
And from a TrumpTruth 1/25/24 1:46 am GMT (ET +5)
“…Anybody that makes a “Contribution” to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL!”
Barf bag moment:
Trump insults Tim Scott to his face (“Nikki Haley appointed you and she endorsed me…you must really hate her.”) and Scott responds by smiling and saying to him, “I just love you!”.
I swear to god, I can not take any more of these masochistic MAGA bootlickers.
Scott was awful. When is he up for re-election?
Scott was just reelected in 2022 to a second full term. For what it’s worth (probably nothing whatosever), he claimed in 2019 that this would be his last and that he’s not interested in running for Governor of South Carolina (https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sen-tim-scott-says-his-2022-sc-reelection-bid-will-be-his-last-political-race/article_0ef94de6-bab4-11e9-a59c-9bbb31fbdf41.html). [Apologies if I should’ve broken the URL with spaces.]
Even though I knew Scott was a sycophant, I admit I was completely shocked by not only his words, but even more so that he managed to look so sincere when he said them. And he got right in Trump’s creepy face as if to kiss him! Even Trump was taken aback for a split second.
There’s something very wrong with Scott, he looked like he was ready to go to his knees and go to work on that infamous mushroom.
But that whole scene was bizarre, why trump felt the need to be surrounded by a pack of lackeys, it may have been rehearsed. Just a hint of how dysfunctional GOP has become and servile to trump. Yeeech.
https://nitter.net/mattsheffield/status/1749879237534949455
Jan 23, 2024 · 7:38 PM UTC
As likely as that may prove to be, do you now see the Dems sufficiently reaching out to the young? There seems to be a hesitation to doing that.
You need to follow Kamala Harris’s campaign on Roe. She is traveling the country speaking to young women about this issue. Of course its hard to know what she is doing in the MSM since they usually only print critical pieces on Harris. Here is an exception: https://www. cnn.com/2024/01/24/politics/kamala-harris-biden-campaign/index.html
Frankly I am tired of hearing the phrase “what are the Dems doing?”. They are governing and I think it is beginning to dawn on some people and even the press that it is paying off.
Young women seem to have their heads on pretty straight (and are righteously upset/motivated about Roe) but young men are being taught that women’s gains are zero-sum and they’re losing out.
I read an analysis of this yesterday, claiming that many young men are either going MAGA or adopting evangelical-style views on women, or finding Ayn Rand (!) or just dropping out. Can’t find the link…
But no, Dems aren’t reaching out, but this drift of young men has been happening for a while. It’s a tough problem, given that the images of masculinity have been handed to young men for decades or even centuries.
I’ve got a guest visiting here or I’d really go at this.
First, it’s a societal problem that cis-het white men are too fucking testosterone poisoned with toxic masculinity — this is not a Democratic Party problem but a societal problem. Look at who is mowing down other humans in mass murders with guns. It’s not women, not LGBTQ+, and it’s not even Black men but rarely.
Secondly, many cis-het men are having to confront the post-Dobbs world because their cis-het female partners are at risk if they get pregnant. Young people are having less sex because of Dobbs. Choices in employment are affected by where partners can get the reproductive health care they want and need. Democrats are definitely reaching out on the issue of reproductive health — it’s toxic masculinity of this culture if cis-het men don’t thinks affects their lives.
Excellent response. You echo (and extend) my thoughts well. It’s almost as if young men are being trained to be looking out for themselves rather than for their families, society. Of course, these people are what the military likes to send into war zones to do the dirty deeds.
This is hardly data-driven but I was involved in a conversation where the topic of Becky Hammond jumping from the WNBA to the NBA came up. Some doofus floated the trope of how NBA players wouldn’t listen to a woman head coach.
Amongst the various angles by which this opinion was taken down by other fans in the forum, there was a woman who spoke up about her own experience as a personnel manager and how she found that young men were far more likely to be respectful of her position and of her opinions than men closer to her own age.
That observation reflects both my own work environment and (from what I’m to hear) the professional experience of my daughters.
Now of course this is all taking place in the liberal PNW but I think we’ve had some unfortunate reminders in the last few years that casual misogyny has no problem crossing political boundaries (lookin at you, Bernie Bros). So while I think we absolutely do have to be vigilant about the toxic masculinity that rides side-by-side with the current reactionary political movement, I also want to be careful to avoid falling into the same cognitive traps our own elders fell into and assume that the kids aren’t allright.
Emphasis on kids and the timing of their radicalization.
Your depiction of the societal problem is spot on. I don’t think anyone who sticks around here doesn’t share your perspective.
For the most part Dems (maybe I should say leftists to exclude the neoliberal/corporatist wing of the Democratic party) aren’t even trying to reach the few young men who might be turned back to the light or prevented from going farther down the rathole, even if only as a shallow vote-gathering exercise.
Christ I am so sick of “won’t somebody think of the cis-het young white men” crap. Let me ask my mostly-white 20-something son if he and his cohort who spend a large chunk of their non-working hours in video gaming feel neglected by Democrats.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.nr0.htm
I completely agree with you that this is a societal problem: how the role of men is changing in the modern society. Speaking as someone who could easily have slipped into this rabbit hole, it’s important to acknowledge that some of the base issues they identify are very real; it’s their responses to them that are wrong. Much has been said about how toxic females are presented in modern media, especially video-games, but little has been said about how unrealistic males are presented as well.
Make no mistake, this is a very hard subject to approach, but we need to talk about how many men are involunatrily childless (and partner-less). (Apologies, these sources are in Norwegian): Statistics Norway showed in 2012 that immigrants were the leading cause of childless males; and these might have unregistered childrens in their home country. More recent studies indicate that 20% of Norwegian-born males are childless at age 50 (with woman at about half that). I believe (without any actual evidence) that many young white males are drawn to the right because they acknowledge the issues and provide a “solution”, while the left in general is more interested in dealing with their wrong responses than the underlying issues.
ContraPoints had two very good videos on the subject; Incels and Men. My favorite part is when she compared the experience of using Tinder as a man vs a woman. Her conclusion as someone who has tried it as both genders, is that she’d rather she’d rather endure the ugliness as a woman than the silence as a man.
If society is going to tackle the problem of incels, my first question is why are men already treated differently than women. Let’s say the problem was the other way around, like more women were involuntarily unmated — what do you think the initial reaction would be? There’s something wrong with the women, right? They’re ugly, unsocial, don’t wear the right clothes, blah-blah.
Which is exactly how women are treated when it comes to rape. Women are asking for it, they’re wearing the wrong clothes, in the wrong places, blah-blah. It’s never mens’ fault, and now the existence of incels is never their fault, either.
For once I would like to see society point the finger at men: you are not entitled to a mate, you need to make yourself more attractive to mates (acquire etiquette, hygiene, education, so on) like other animal species. The silence is women’s nice way of saying a man needs more work. Women are inundated with that message all the time from birth; it’s comfortable compared to silence because society never shuts up about policing women.
Exactly, society has different expectations for the genders when it comes to mating rituals. Men are expected to be the hunters and thus instigate contact, while the women are supposed to be coy and play “hard to get.” I lay particular blame on this last part (let me just reiterate that it’s society that’s wrong here, not the women). Women feigning dis-interest will just turn away the men who respect them, while rewarding those who don’t take no for an answer.
Instead we should be rewarding whomever takes initiative in chosing a mate, and normalize both making and rejecting advances. These are very hard parts to change in society though, but it doesn’t feel like we’re trying too hard either. It feels like most people learn these concepts not from family or friends but from media, maybe particularly sit-com TV shows, and is probably why the right had it so hard for shows like Modern Family.
As an aside, I’d actually recommend trying to watch the right-wing take on Modern Family, Last Man Standing. It is at times hilariously bad while still proving much insight into how the right-wing-mind “thinks”. I think there’s only four non-white characters shown onscreen for the whole nine seasons! My favorite episode is the one which spends equal time railing against taxes and complaining that the schools are underfunded.
Phillip Bump did an analysis of this. If you scroll to the fourth graph it’s easy to see that Gen Z white teens are the furthest right of all Gen Z.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/23/gen-z-republican-polling/
Trump and Haley are puppets controlled by several Republican billionaires. Haley will drop out of the campaign when told to drop out by her billionaire supporters.
These billionaires, including the founders of Home Depot, Wall Street Hedge Fund founders and owners, Wall Street REIT founders will strike a financial deal between themselves to pay Haley to drop out no later than mid-April 2024.
By mid-April 2024, these billionaires and all of us, too, will know whether Trump’s criminal trials will result in Trump being tried and convicted before the November 2024 election.
Do you see Haley getting a cabinet post or ambassadorship for being a contestant? What’s in it for her under that scenario?
She was ambassador to the UN for a while.
Oh yeah…and then:
What’s the Real Reason Nikki Haley Resigned as U.N. Ambassador? https://www.newyorker.com/news/current/whats-the-real-reason-nikki-haley-resigned-as-un-ambassador Eric Lach 10/9/18
Financial backers willing to play ball with her in ’28.
She’s paid a lot of money to drop out. Money “today” and living to campaign again in four years is her motivation.
These Republican Party billionaires will tell Trump who will be in his cabinet or other positions.
Everyone, including these billionaires, know Trump doesn’t care about governing; they know he covets playing King and making money for himself.
So, they will let him play King and let him deregulate rules and regulations that impede their financial goals and objectives.
Trump, the King, however, will be controlled by these billionaires and he will kneel to them upon command.
Several of these billionaires are virulent anti-Communist/Socialist ideologues who believe too many people in the US are lazy and want free handouts.
I agree.
Your analysis is spot on but I’m still convinced that the oligarchs will get her on the ticket as VP which would solidify the Tump party and bring in those less than enthusiastic over Trump.
These were my thoughts too. But up thread someone pointed out that Trump thinks the oligarchs are going to do away with him to install his VP if he gets elected.
So if he really believes this, it make it less likely, in my view, that he picks who his big donors want. And to me it still seems as though the balance of power is still on his side due to his cult following so he can pick whomever he wants.
I think you’re vastly overestimating whether Trump will bow to anyone. His plan is to wield power indiscriminately, and there’s no reason he won’t follow the Putin handbook. If someone tells him to do something he doesn’t like, he’ll seize their assets, hand them over to someone he likes better, and keep his cut. He’ll pack the Supreme Court so that he has a permanent 8-3 advantage, and if that’s not enough, he’ll pack it even more.
People have far too much faith of the oligarchy in the US to act in their own interests, and also to understand what they’re dealing with. If the worst comes to pass, this won’t be 2017. Trump in January 2021 was vastly more ruthless, and he’s only gotten worse.
That doesn’t mean Trump will be competent – he may well crash the US economy along with its democracy. But that doesn’t mean people like the Mercers or Uihleins come out of this in one piece – if anything, it makes their odds a lot worse.
Your perception is exactly right–history is littered with dictators who have, ummm, neutralized those who helped them come to power. The reasons are pretty obvious.
There’s one fairly simple political calculation on Nikki Haley’s part that could lead her to drop out with no conspiratorial energy behind it.
If she loses her home state, South Carolina, that’s going to be a pretty brutal mark against her for the rest of her political career.
So if she drops out, that could have a lot of factors behind it. If she stays in through South Carolina, to me that either means that she really believes she’s going to win her home state, or she’s got some other motivation for putting her fundamental electability on the line. So it will be interesting to see one way or the other.
I don’t see her getting any position in Trump administration after the negative comments she is starting to hurl at Trump. And she has just begun. He really hated that she came within 12 pts of his win and refuses to drop out. He will view her as the one who blew his glory. Kinda like Obama and Pelosi both who are still in his head. At a rally he said he was running against Obama and called Nikki Pelosi.
Yes, they get it both ways and have her either on the ticket as VP or in place to replace him and pull Magats together with the promise to pardon him if elected.
A tad reductionist. Avoids distinguishing between being influenced and controlled.
Trump’s not that easy to control – ask his lawyers. As his mental health deteriorates, that task will become harder, as it will were he to have the taste of retribution more firmly in his presidential mouth.
Billionaire Rupert Murdoch thought he had a handle on Trump. Then when Trump’s takeover attempt landed in January 2021, the Dominion lawsuit evidence showed he realized with panic how little he mattered or even knew what was going on.
Trump is definitely his own man. And he’s learned which departments he needs to corrupt in order to rule.
Hell pick his own Justice, Defense, and Homeland Security obviously. Who owns the rules on the civil service–or does he just try to exec order that? Interior and Commerce so he can hand out some favors to the big guys.
All of them interim, of course, unless he gets the trifecta. He won’t care.
The big guys will get to, umm, propose policy but they won’t be picking much of the cabinet. He needs loyalty to him, not to big money.
When you say “Trump is definitely his own man” I disagree.
Yes, he operates in a seemingly loose-cannon approach and bashes into whatever is on the deck when the swells change.
But he appears to be not in control of any real agenda – one that has some written projects, tasks, timelines, etc. This agenda is handled by others. We know of the Project 2025 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025) but I’m sure there are many others that don’t involve djt supplying any effluent. The control lies outside of his own corpulence and family. Perhaps he’s minimally wired in via Bannon, etc.
The look on his face when he and Putin emerged from their private meeting in Helsinki is all you need to see.
Yes, scared witless. But Uihlein isn’t Putin and I don’t see him threatening to Skripal
anyone. Maybe I’m wrong on that.
He is controllable, at least substantially influenced, by those who most effectively flatter him.
I was responding to the question of billionaires picking his staff for him; sure, everyone will put up suggestions but his ego will decide who’s loyal/criminal enough to carry out his personal agenda items (staying in power, wreaking vengeance, and other fun stuff). The lower-level blocking/tackling types will be delivered by the busload from all the usual RW suspects.
Does New Hampshire have declared party membership, or is crossover a free thing?
Even if a lot of Dem crossover was for Haley, she and DeSantis together in Iowa equals out her New Hampshire showing as not-Trump. Her big challenge will be South Carolina. As their past governor, if she has less of a showing there than in New Hampshire it would not be a good outcome for her and the donors.
If Trump does well in South Carolina and the southern states he should have it made, absent some court outcome upsetting his march. We could guess at the white south, but it will show things soon enough.
Biden in turn looks solid, and bet on Clyburn again putting a heavy pro-Joe finger on the scale. Joe is the incumbent. Dean Phillips seems doomed. He has made “pass the torch” a motto, and in his MN CD3, he’s passed it. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/24/politics/dean-phillips-reelection-congress-president-2024/index.html
It so far looks to be Trump – Biden again, and when push comes my guess is the Biden votes will show up, disgruntled or not, they will not vote Trump, nor stay home because they could regret that. General election turnouts will again matter greatly.
And November’s general election will again hinge upon early balloting counted after poll closing numbers, (and be open to yet another “rigged” contention.)
I again will vote my ballot early. Over the years my signature has gotten more relaxed so I vote at city hall where the receptionist witnesses my paper ballot envelope. There are people who as election judges will challenge signatures if the see the ballot envelope is from somebody known to them as leaning to the other party..
My guess is Emptywheelers also will be early voters. Are there any who will wait to stand in line at polling places? If so, what’s the thinking?
[Moderator’s note: Work on your concision. This is not the first time you’ve been warned about overlong comments. Half of this is fluff and could be cut. /~Rayne]
Both NH primaries were Nothingburgers except for some of the telling voter interviews, chiefly of those who had voted in GOP primary.
NH is such an outlier to other GOP primaries that it’s not likely an omen. However if trump overreacts which is already happening, he could apply fuel to a very small fire.
trump’s appeal is to the people & places left behind America’s progress. Poor, undereducated whites who are resentful and trump has successfully tapped into their anger at the system, nearly impossible for other pols to reach them, trump’s their messiah. trump’s uber-crude personal behavior and possible criminality doesn’t faze them a whit but it’s different with women, indies, country club Republicans etc.
I think physically & mentally we’re just starting to see the tip of the trump health iceberg and if Nikki can hang in she may be the last candidate standing. She just needs a thick skin & strong stomach to tolerate his antics esp if he feels he’s slipping. He’s running for his life, no exaggeration.
The most trivial comment I will ever make here:
Burger: beef patty and bun.
Cheeseburger: cheese, beef patty, bun.
Bacon cheeseburger: bacon, cheese, beef patty, bun.
Nothing burger: semantically not non-existent but simply carrying no adjectival additions; the patty and bun remain.
Apologies and no offense; I just mildly despise the term. And I know my stance is debateable. Good day.
I tried popularizing “nullburger” once, but unfortunately it came to nothing.
No offense taken.
I agree nothingburger is bad taste but seems to fit this topic. Sometimes bad can be good, like a really godawful sci-fi movie. “It is what it is” is right up there too in “The Teachings of Chairman Donald”
Sometimes bad is bad…
https: //www.youtube.com/watch?v=JL1Oijj8oPM
I’m not counting Nikki out yet. That was a better showing than I had hoped. She can still wrest it away from Trump (see past historic primaries from the mid-1800s). But we’ll see. None of the Republicans I know here in Texas support Trump (but then I don’t talk to Trump supporters if I can help it).
There are basically no true super-delegates in the RNC. And the only small handful of states that are winner-take-all are either trivial (the Dakotas) or very likely Trump (Florida, Ohio). As long as he wins more states than he loses and picks up at least one of those two prizes, she literally doesn’t have the numbers to beat him. And Texas? The last poll taken right after DeSantis dropped out had him up 50 points on Haley. If you can believe it, there are other states where the gap is even worse (though those are older and less reliable polls).
The only way she has a chance is if he’s behind bars or about to be. And I’m not even sure then, because at that time the RNC can unbind delegates in a dizzying number of ways, all of which could absolutely benefit candidates NOT named Nikki Haley.
There were no superdelegates for Lincoln either. Given the chaos in the party, I won’t count out Nikki yet. And she’s finally starting to fight.
I am watching who the VP is for Trump. Everybody supporting Trump, the donors, are counting that Trump if he wins, will not be president for long. And Trump cannot fire the VP.
You have to know that in Trumps tiny orange heart, he doesn’t want or need a vice president.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he actually said it at some point during the campaign. After all, he didn’t have any luck with the last one.
Re: polls and predictive value. If we take seriously the idea that politicians, endorsers, media figures, can be intimidated by Trump and his violent base into parroting and following the Trumpist line, that intimidation should filter down to the more everyday MAGA person, many of whom may be biting their tongues and biding their time until they can secretly vote for Biden, never letting their intentions slip to pollsters.
Seems reasonable. Closet done-with-Trumpers. Or am I just grasping? These folks I’m positing sure didn’t turn out for Halley, etc.
Trump as usual was as ungraceous as he usually is. Some one as rude, nasty, etc. maybe elected the President of the U.S.A. Just boggles the mind. How people can vote for him, is beyond me. He’s trashy and comes across as just plan dumb. Doesn’t say much for the voters either. His comments regarding Haley’s dress was so out there, it was ridiculous. There was not need for those comments. Yikes.
Do hope Haley remains in the race until the end, just to goad Trump on and who knows if he goes to jail or isn’t allowed to run for office, the other guys may regret bowing out.