Five Ways to Find New Voters and New Activists

In a tweet yesterday, Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman explained how Kamala Harris has changed the dynamic of the Presidential race. Her lead among highly committed voters remains the same as Joe Biden had in May. But she has eaten into Trump’s lead among low and mid-engagement voters.

These voters include young voters, busy working class voters, but also Double Haters whose disgust by their choice of candidate might have led them to sit out.

Understanding that that’s how you break up a tie race — by motivating people who otherwise might not to come out to vote — explains a lot about what Democrats have been doing in the one month since Kamala took over from Joe. It explains why Tim Walz joined TikTok — and why Pete Buttigieg is bragging that he already has more followers on TikTok than JD Vance.

Below, I’ve laid out five ways that the DNC has tried to find ways to reach out to voters last night.

One group they are not fully reaching out to, though, are Muslims and Arab-Americans. At the end of yesterday’s convention, multiple people, including AOC, reported that the convention will not allow a Palestinian-American to speak on the main stage. We may learn more about the circumstances of this (I’m sure it doesn’t help that Biden and Harris are trying to pressure Bibi Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire this week); it was a failure of planning that it didn’t happen earlier in the week. We may never know the cost of this. But it is ethically and morally wrong to exclude some voice to speak for the people of Gaza.

Update: The UAW has issued a statement on the import of providing a platform for a Palestinian American to speak.

If we want the war in Gaza to end, we can’t put our heads in the sand or ignore the voices of the Palestinian Americans in the Democratic Party. If we want peace, if we want real democracy, and if we want to win this election, the Democratic Party must allow a Palestinian American speaker to be heard from the DNC stage tonight.

Coach Walz

You don’t need me to explain why Tim Walz expands the field of potential voters (though polling doesn’t, yet, show him helping, much, in rural areas). At the very least, he’s virtually guaranteed to ensure Harris-Walz wins the Omaha electoral vote that puts the ticket at 270 in a thin Blue Wall strategy.

There are three things about his speech that merit notice, however. First, bringing Walz’ football players on stage was great theater, just like having Kamala and Coach pack a Milwaukee venue and the Chicago convention at the same time. It continues to highlight a different kind of white masculinity, besides the toxic aggression Trump offers.

The image of Gus Walz weeping for his father is yet another expression of the love that has drenched the Democratic side this year, even as Melania has shied from Trump’s kiss.

There’s also a line in Walz’ stump speech — that Sarah Longwell, the publisher of The Bulwark who has been doing non-stop focus groups for the last two months — says works with all swing voters: “We made sure that every kind in our state gets breakfast and lunch every day.” Walz went on, “So while other states were banning books from our schools, we were banishing hunger.” A focus on schools — yes to food and books, no to guns — has the power to make sense of all this.

Notably, in Florida, Ron DeSantis’ efforts to pack school boards with people censoring books had a huge setback on Tuesday.

Oprah

After Oprah endorsed Barack Obama in 2007, there were scholarly and polling articles that tried to track the value of her endorsement. The answer was — at a time when she was at the height of her influence — it probably had more impact on the belief of those who might already vote for Obama that he could win, not in convincing others to vote for him. Oprah gave Obama credibility, and the timing and publicity of it gave him a way to match up to Hillary.

Obviously, Oprah’s endorsement of Hillary in 2016 was not enough to defeat Donald Trump.

More recently, Oprah’s influence has been more important in undercutting those whose careers she had launched, most notably Dr Oz when he ran against John Fetterman. That ought to concern JD Vance, whose Hillbilly Elegy Oprah platformed in her book club. Oprah quipped that when a house is in on fire, that homeowner’s neighbors don’t ask their religion or party before they move to help. “And if the place happens to belong to a childless cat lady, welp, we try to get that cat out too.” Equally important, for a woman who taught Middle America to read again, it matters that she warned against, “People who’d have you believe that books are dangerous, and assault rifles are safe.”

I think Oprah did one more thing. She paid tribute to John Lewis and spoke at length of the import of Tessie Prevost-Williams’ role in integrating New Orleans schools. Too many white people don’t know — haven’t had to think about — the import of school integration, or the impact of efforts to reverse it. Oprah used Tessie’s story to explain the import of Kamala’s role in integrating Berkeley’s schools. Oprah, who like Donald Trump built her credibility by joining Americans in their living rooms for years, broke ground for what might be far more focus on the historic opportunity of Kamala’s candidacy, including a tribute to Fannie Lou Hamer, like Oprah a Mississippian, who demanded she be seated as a delegate 60 years ago today.

Trump responded to Oprah’s speech by releasing the letter Oprah sent almost a quarter century ago when Trump wrote, in a book, that Oprah would be his first choice for a Vice President candidate.

Americans respect and admire Oprah for her intelligence and caring. She has provided inspiration for millions of women to improve their lives, go back to school, learn to read, and take responsibility for themselves. If I can’t get Oprah, I’d like someone like her.

I’m not sure how Oprah’s polite denial in 2000 helps him, since his description of Oprah as the ideal Vice President sounds so much like Kamala and nothing like JD Vance.

Geoff Duncan

The party has made a concerted effort to do what Trump hasn’t for anyone beyond Nikki Haley herself: reach out to Never-Trumpers. On Tuesday, former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham described how Trump attacks his supporters as “basement dwellers.” Before Geoff Duncan, former Homeland Security aide Olivia Troye described how she — a conservative Latina Catholic of the sort Republicans have been working hard to attract — was terrified if Trump would return to the White House.

Geoff Duncan made voting against Trump a matter of integrity. He looked into the camera and addressed, “the millions of Republicans and Independents that are at home that are sick and tired of making excuses for Donald Trump.” As all the Republicans speaking did, he described that voting for Harris didn’t make one a Democrat, but instead a patriot — reappropriating the term Trump’s thugs have adopted. And he described how, as his family was hunted by other Republicans sent by Donald Trump, his son reminded him of the family motto: “Doing the right thing will never be the wrong thing.”

[Update: Spelling of Duncan’s first name corrected. My apologies to him.]

Bill Clinton

Bill was self-indulgent, he went long, he occasionally mispronounced Kamala’s name, and — as someone younger than both Joe Biden and Donald Trump — he made it easy to understand how age can slow you down. “Let’s cut to the chase. I am too old to gild the lily. Two days ago I turned 78. Oldest man in my family for four generations. And the only personal vanity I want to assert is I’m still younger than Donald Trump.”

But 25 minutes in, the old white southern spouse of failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton warned against getting complacent.

As somebody who spends a lot of time in small towns and rural areas in New York and Arkansas and other places, I want, I urge you to talk to all your neighbors. I urge you to meet people where they are. I urge you not to demean them, but not to pretend you don’t disagree with them if you do. Treat them with respect. Just the way you’d like them to treat you.

I’m not Bill Clinton’s audience. But right now, Kamala is retaining a surprising amount of older white voters after Biden’s drop. And the kind of conversation Bill espouses is the kind of conversation that the Tim Walz pick makes possible, if people are willing to engage.

Pete Buttigieg

Buttigieg’s talent is well known from his Fox News appearances (which he joked about), but it was especially apparent in comparison with all the historic speakers at the convention. He still shone.

Buttigieg found a way to attack JD Vance for both his commentary about childless people and his attacks on Walz’ military record — by noting that, “When I deployed to Afghanistan, I didn’t have kids then. Many of the men and women who went outside the wire didn’t have kids either. But let me tell you: Our commitment to the future of this country was pretty damn physical.”

More importantly, he found a way to explain why politics matters. Without ever mentioning he’s gay or naming his husband Chasten, Buttigieg reminded that nothing about his nuclear family was possible two decades ago. None of it was possible without the political fight to win equality.

There is joy in it, as well as power. And if all of that sounds naive, let me insist that I have come to this view not by the way of idealism, but by way of experience. Not just the experience of my unlikely career — someone like me, serving, in Indiana. Someone like me, serving in Washington. Someone like me, serving, in uniform. I’m thinking of something much more basic. I’m thinking of dinner time in our house in Michigan. When the dog is barking and the air fryer is beeping and the mac and cheese is boiling over and it feels like all the political negotiating experience in the world is not enough for me to get our 3-year old daughter and our 3-year old son to just wash their hands and sit at the table. It’s the part of our day when politics seems the most distant. And yet the makeup of our kitchen table — the existence of my family — is just one example of something that was literally impossible as recently as 25 years ago when an anxious teenager growing up in Indiana wondering if he would ever find belonging in this world.

Since Walz has been chosen, several things have reminded me of my early involvement in a renewed sense of politics since the Iraq War. Like Tim Walz, I attended Wellstone Action. Folks I’ve known for decades — in VoteVets and from the new political spinoff from Daily Kos, The DownBallot — reminded that they backed Walz in 2006 and 2008, when his win was considered an impossibility. Rayne would kill me if I failed to mention Howard Dean in it all, which is where we got to know each other IRL.

As happened with Obama (and in response to the Iraq War), Kamala’s race has the power to convince ordinary Americans that they can be a different kind of citizen, and that kind of citizenship can improve people’s lives. There’s a lot of Democrats celebrating other Democrats at the convention. But there’s also a real effort to offer something for those low-turnout voters who could decide the race, or novice Democrats who could step up for the first time.

DNC Convention 2024: Day 3

[NB: check the byline, thanks. /~Rayne]

Welcome to Day 3 of Democratic National Committee Convention 2024.

The convention has an umbrella theme, “For the People, For Our Future,” with each successive day having a subset theme.

Day 1 — “For the People” — Joe Biden, keynote speaker

Day 2 — “A Bold Vision for America’s Future’ — Barack Obama, keynote speaker

Day 3 — “A Fight for Our Freedoms” — Tim Walz, keynote speaker <<– YOU ARE HERE

Day 4 — “For Our Future” — Kamala Harris, keynote speaker

Philip Elliot at TIME suggests tonight’s programming will be white man dense because white men were a key voting block which helped Biden win over Trump in 2020 and are still a critical variable in 2024.

Given how often minority groups and women have historically been given short shrift, this approach feels uncomfortable. But if the Democratic Party is to crush Trump and the GOP, no voting bloc should go without outreach, including the Never-Trumpers.

DAY 3 CONVENTION SCHEDULE
Here’s today’s convention schedule (times shown are Central Time):

• 7 a.m.-9:30 a.m.: Delegation breakfasts
• 9 a.m.-10a.m.: Morning press briefing
• 9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Black Caucus meeting
• 9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Hispanic Caucus meeting
• 9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: AAPI Caucus meeting
• 9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Native American Caucus meeting
• 9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Ethnic Council meeting
• 12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: Labor Council meeting
• 12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: LGBTQ+ Caucus meeting
• 12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: Small Business Council meeting
• 1:45 p.m.-3:15 p.m.: Environmental & Climate Crisis Council meeting
• 1:45 p.m.-3:15 p.m.: Seniors Council meeting
• 6 p.m.-10 p.m.: Main programming

MAIN PROGRAMMING
Main programming has already begun as this post publishes at 7:30 PM ET/6:30 PM CT

Tonight’s schedule (times shown are Central Time):

5:30 PM

Call to Order
• Alex Hornbrook, Executive Director of the 2024 Democratic National Convention Committee

Gavel In
• Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)

Invocation
• Sri Rakesh Bhatt
• Sri Siva Vishnu Temple
• Bishop Leah D. Daughtry, The House of the Lord Churches

Pledge of Allegiance
• Students from Moreland Arts & Health Sciences Magnet School from St. Paul, MN

National Anthem
• Jess Davis

Presentation of Honorary Resolutions
• Jaime Harrison, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee

Joined by Vice Chairs
• Keisha Lance Bottoms
• Ken Martin
• Henry R. Muñoz III, Treasurer
• Virginia McGregor
• Chris Korge, Finance Chair

Remarks
• Mini Timmaraju, President and CEO of Reproductive Freedom for All
• Alexis McGill Johnson, President and CEO of Planned Parenthood Action Fund
• Cecile Richards, Reproductive Rights Champion
• Kelley Robinson, President of the Human Rights Campaign
• Jessica Mackler, President of EMILYs List
• María Teresa Kumar, Founding President and CEO of Voto Latino
• Rep. Tom Suozzi (NY-03)

6:00 PM

Welcome Remarks
• Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)

Joint Remarks
• Aftab Pureval, Mayor of Cincinnati OH
• Cavalier Johnson, Mayor of Milwaukee WI
• Deanna Branch, mother and lead pipe removal advocate
• Rashawn Spivey, plumbing business owner and lead pipe removal advocate

Remarks
• Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE At-large District)
• Rep. Grace Meng (NY-

Remarks: “Project 2025—Chapter Three: Freedoms”
• Gov. Jared Polis, Colorado

Remarks
• Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-)
• Suzan DelBene, Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
• Keith Ellison, Attorney General of Minnesota
• Dana Nessel, Attorney General of Michigan
• Jon Polin and Rachel Goldberg, Parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin

Performance
• Maren Morris, American singer-songwriter

7:00 PM

Remarks
• Rep. Veronica Escobar (TX-16)
• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)
• Javier Salazar, Sheriff of Bexar County, Texas
• Pete Aguilar, Chair of the House Democratic Caucus

Influencer Remarks
• Carlos Eduardo Espina, Content creator

Remarks
• Olivia Troye, former Trump administration national security official
• Geoff Duncan, former Lt. Governor of Georgia
• Rep. Bennie G. Thompson (MS-02)
• Sergeant Aquilino Gonell, Retired United States Capitol Police Officer
• Rep. Andy Kim, (NJ-03)

Influencer Remarks
• Olivia Julianna, Content creator

Performance
• Stevie Wonder, American singer-songwriter and musician

Remarks
• Kenan Thompson, American comedian and actor and Guests on Project 2025

8:00 PM

Host Introduction
• Mindy Kaling

Remarks
• Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Leader
• Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States
• Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker Emerita (CA-)
• Gov. Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania
• Alexander Hudlin
• Jasper Emhoff
• Arden Emhoff
• Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)

9:00 PM

Performance
• Amanda Gorman, National Youth Poet Laureate

Remarks
• Gov. Wes Moore, Maryland
• Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation

Performance
• John Legend, American singer-songwriter
• Sheila E., American singer and drummer

Remarks
• Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
• Benjamin C. Ingman, Former student of Governor Walz

Remarks
• Gov. Tim Walz, Minnesota, Democratic Party vice presidential nominee and keynote speaker

Benediction
• William Emmanuel Hall
• Lead Pastor of St. James Church in Chicago

HOW TO WATCH
See Monday’s Day 1 post for the best channels on which to catch the majority of this evening’s programming.

DNC at United Center-Chicago will stream a live feed from its own website between 7:00 PM to 11:00 PM ET (6:00 PM to 10:00 PM CT) Tuesday through Thursday.

https://demconvention.com/

USA Today will also live stream Tuesday through Thursday.

https://www.youtube.com/@USATODAY/streams – main page

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxBzoWNCWHo – tonight’s feed

The DNC’s convention feeds are:

https://www.youtube.com/@DemConvention – main page

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIoAq_BHNLU – tonight’s feed

The Presidency Is a “Black Job”

You should watch the video of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, as they waited backstage in Milwaukee as the call of delegates was livecast in Fiserv Forum, packed to the gills, the same venue where the GOP held their convention a very long month ago. As Gavin Newsom, in Chicago’s United Center, cast the last votes making the Vice President the formal nominee of the party, Harris and Walz stood together.

It’s time for us to do the right thing, and that is to elect Kamala Harris as the next President of the United States of America. California, we proudly cast our 400 and 82 votes for the next President, Kamala Harris.

The range of emotions that registered on Kamala’s face started with, perhaps, anxiety or perhaps a sense of unreality. As Newsom cast the votes, she seemed to focus — Walz, standing next to her backstage, had begun to go nuts. She bent her head back and began to register some kind of joy.

But then there was a moment where her eyes got big. She got an almost childlike expression in them, as if she couldn’t believe what just happened, couldn’t believe the enormity of it all.

Then it began to settle. Perhaps pride came in.

Finally she turned to Walz, gave him a high-five handshake, a hug. It’s only after that hug where she came away with a full joyful smile.

As I watched that video, I couldn’t help but think to the significant number of people who, as they were trying to get Joe Biden to drop off the ticket, were inventing reasons to pass over Kamala Harris.

Many people, white and Black, progressive and not, opined with certainty that the country was not ready to elect a Black woman.

There has been almost no discussion of that since the day, exactly a month ago, when Joe Biden endorsed her.

To be sure: the fact that she would be the first woman president, the first Black woman president, the first Asian-American president — people keep talking about that (though as several stories on the Convention noted, particularly in comparison with Hillary, Kamala is not dwelling on that).

To be equally sure, the challenge it presents is not something anyone is forgetting. Certainly Michelle Obama addressed the challenge before us in her speech, which started with a tribute to the memory of her own mother, Marian Robinson, who passed away in May, and paid tribute to Kamala’s mother, along the way. (In his speech, Obama also paid tribute to Robinson, likening her to his grandmother.)

After declaring there is no monopoly on what it means to be an American, Michelle described what it’s like to grow up without the privilege Trump has enjoyed.

Because no one has a monopoly on what it means to be an American. No one.

Kamala has shown her allegiance to this nation, not by spewing anger and bitterness, but by living a life of service and always pushing the doors of opportunity open to others. She understands that most of us will never be afforded the grace of failing forward. We will never benefit from the affirmative action of generational wealth. If we bankrupt the business or choke in a crisis, we don’t get a second, third, or fourth chance. If things don’t go our way, we don’t have the luxury of whining or cheating others to get further ahead. No. We don’t get to change the rules, so we always win. If we see a mountain in front of us, we don’t expect there to be an escalator waiting to take us to the top. No. We put our heads down. We get to work. In America, we do something.

That wasn’t necessarily a comment on race. Few Americans enjoy the privilege that Trump has.

But what followed was about race. Michelle turned to the attacks Donald Trump had launched on her and Barack.

It was the first time Michelle named Trump.

we know what comes next. We know folks are going to do everything they can to distort her truth. My husband and I, sadly, know a little something about this. For years, Donald Trump did everything in his power to try to make people fear us. See, his limited, narrow view of the world made him feel threatened by the existence of two hardworking, highly educated, successful people who happen to be Black.

Then she flipped it all back on Donald Trump. The office of the Presidency is a “Black job” now.

Wait, I want to know: Who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those “Black jobs”?

Michelle moved from there to name Trump’s misogyny and racism as a substitute for his own inadequacy. Later, she returned to those “who don’t want to vote for a woman,” but prescribed “Do something” when it happens.

We cannot be our own worst enemies. The minute something goes wrong, the minute a lie takes hold, folks, we cannot start wringing our hands. We cannot get a Goldilocks complex about whether everything is ‘just right.’ We cannot indulge our anxieties about whether this country will elect someone like Kamala, instead of doing everything we can to get someone like Kamala elected.

You can read the rest here.

The First Black First Lady warned everyone. The shit is going to fly. But when it happens, you just have to Do Something to push back on the lies and racism and misogyny.

I don’t know whether, in the month since Biden endorsed Kamala, people set aside the belief that America is not ready to elect a Black woman, or just recommitted to making this happen regardless of the racism and sexism of America, in spite of it. Or maybe, for some, that was always just an excuse to ask for someone else.

I responded, back when people said the US was not ready for the first Black woman president, that with Dobbs on the ballot, with fascism on the ballot, after several elections in which Black women voters saved the country, a Black woman candidate may be the most logical choice. Indeed, as Trump has struggled, and usually failed, to come up with some attack on the Vice President that didn’t turn his dog whistles into a clarion call of racism, his insecurities about running against Kamala have made it harder for the press to normalize his racism.

Being bested by a smart, beautiful Black woman may be precisely the Kryptonite to Trump’s power the country has been looking for.

DNC Convention 2024: Day 2

[NB: check the byline, thanks. /~Rayne]

The second day of Democratic National Committee Convention 2024 has commenced.

DAY 2 CONVENTION SCHEDULE
Here’s today’s event lineup (times shown are Central Time):

7 a.m.-9:30 a.m.: Delegation breakfasts
9 a.m.-10a.m.: Morning press briefing
9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Women’s Caucus meeting
12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: Disability Caucus meeting
12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: Youth Council meeting
12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: Rural Council meeting
1:45 p.m.-3:15 p.m.: Veterans & Military Families Council meeting
1:45 p.m.-3:15 p.m.: Poverty Council meeting
1:45 p.m.-3:15 p.m.: Interfaith Council meeting
6 p.m.-10 p.m.: Main programming

MAIN PROGRAMMING
Main programming has already begun as this post publishes at 7:30 PM ET/6:30 PM CT

Tonight’s schedule (times shown are Central Time):

5:30 PM

Call to order
• Jaime R. Harrison, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee

Gavel in
• Mitch Landrieu, DNC Night 2 Co-Chair and Committee Co-Chair

Invocation
• Rabbi Sharon Brous, IKAR
• Imam Dr. Talib M. Shareef, The Nation’s Mosque

Pledge of Allegiance
• Joshua Davis

National Anthem
• Aristotle “Aris” Garcia Byrne

Remarks
• Jason Carter, Grandson of President Jimmy Carter
• Jack Schlossberg, Grandson of President John F. Kennedy

Remarks: “Project 2025—Chapter Two: The Economy”
• Malcolm Kenyatta, PA state house of representatives
6:00 PM

• Kyle Sweetser, former Donald Trump voter
• Stephanie Grisham, former Trump White House Press Secretary
• Nabela Noor, Content creator
• Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI)
• Kenneth Stribling, Retired Teamster

7:00 PM

Roll Call
• Minnesota Delegation
• California Delegation

8:00 PM

• Ana Navarro, host introduction
• Sen. Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader (D-NY)
• Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
• Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL)
• Ken Chenault, American business executive
• Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM)

9:00 PM

Keynote Remarks
• Angela Alsobrooks, Nominee for the U.S. Senate (D-MD); Long-time mentee of VP Harris
• Mayor John Giles, City of Mesa (R-AZ)
• Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
• Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff
• Former First Lady Michelle Obama

10:00 PM

• Former President Barack Obama, key note speaker

Benediction
• Bishop Samuel L. Green, Sr., African Methodist Episcopal Church, 7th Episcopal District
• Archbishop Elpidophoros, Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America

HOW TO WATCH
See yesterday’s post for the best channels on which to catch the majority of this evening’s programming.

DNC at United Center-Chicago will stream a live feed from its own website between 7:00 PM to 11:00 PM ET (6:00 PM to 10:00 PM CT) Tuesday through Thursday.

https://demconvention.com/

USA Today will also live stream Tuesday through Thursday.

https://www.youtube.com/@USATODAY/streams – main page

https://www.youtube.com/live/6n40S96nmv8 – tonight’s feed

DNC Convention 2024: Day 1

[NB: check the byline, thanks. /~Rayne]

The Democratic National Committee Convention 2024 opened today at United Center in Chicago IL.

Expect both the traditional and the unconventional given the attendees and keynotes as well as the organizers behind this four-day event.

Here’s today’s convention schedule (times shown are Central Time):

7 a.m.-9:30 a.m.: Delegation breakfasts
9 a.m.-10a.m.: Morning press briefing
9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Black Caucus meeting
9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Hispanic Caucus meeting
9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: AAPI Caucus meeting
9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Native American Caucus meeting
9:30 a.m.-11:30 a.m.: Ethnic Council meeting
12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: LGBTQ+ Caucus meeting
12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: Small Business Council meeting
12 p.m.-1:30 p.m.: Labor Council meeting
1:45 p.m.-3:15 p.m.: Environmental & Climate Crisis Council meeting
5:30 p.m.-10 p.m.: Main programming

Main programming has already begun.

Best channels on which to catch the majority of this evening’s programming:

• C-SPAN will carry the entire convention uninterrupted for all four days.

• CBS News’ primetime coverage of the convention will air Monday through Thursday from 8-11 p.m. ET and be anchored by “CBS Evening News” anchor and managing editor Norah O’Donnell.

• CNN will provide nearly 24/7 live on-air coverage of the DNC, including special live coverage each night from 8 p.m.-midnight ET with “CNN Democratic National Convention.”

• NewsNation will have special primetime coverage entitled “Decision Desk 2024: The Democratic National Convention,” which will air each day from 8 p.m.-midnight ET. It will be co-anchored by Chris Cuomo, Elizabeth Vargas and Leland Vittert.

• MSNBC will air special coverage from 8 p.m. to midnight each night and will also livestream all four days of the convention on its YouTube channel, the New York Times reports.

(source for schedule and channel lineup: USA Today)

The other networks including MSNBC’s parent have highly abbreviated coverage.

Tonight’s speaker line up already in progress (via ABC channel 6):

5:15 p.m.

• Call to Order: Minyon Moore, chair of the 2024 Democratic National Convention Committee, Jaime R. Harrison, chairman of the Democratic National Committee
• Invocation: Cardinal Blase Cupich, archdiocese of Chicago
• Land Acknowledgement: Zach Pahmahmie, Tribal Council Vice-Chairman of the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation and Lorrie Melchior, Tribal Council Secretary of the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation
• Presentation of Colors: Illinois State Police Honor Guard
• Pledge of Allegiance: William Harrison, 9, and Charles Harrison, 5
• National anthem: Soul Children of Chicago
• Remarks and video introduction: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson
• Presentation of the Convention Agenda: Jaime Harrison joined by vice chairs Keisha Lance Bottoms, Ken Martin, and Henry R. Muñoz III, Treasurer Virginia McGregor, and Finance Chair Chris Korge
Confirmatory and Ceremonial Vote for the Vice Presidential Nominee: Minyon Moore

6 p.m.

• Welcome remarks: Peggy Flanagan
• Welcome Remarks: Jaime Harrison
• Remarks: U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters
• Joint Remarks: Derrick Johnson, President & CEO of the NAACP and Melanie L. Campbell, President & CEO of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation
• Honoring the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, Sr, accompanied by Jonathan Jackson and Yusef D. Jackson.
• Remarks: U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood
• Video: Rich Logis: former Donald Trump voter
• Remarks: U.S. Rep. Robert Garcia
• Remarks: Brian Wallach and Sandra Abrevaya, health care advocates and founders of I Am ALS
• Remarks: U.S. Senator Dick Durbin
• Remarks from Arizona: Dutch Martinez and Ryan Ahern, The United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry of the United States and Canada (UA)
• Remarks: U.S. Rep. Joyce Beatty
• Joint Remarks: Lee Saunders, president of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), April Verrett, president of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Brent Booker, general president of the Laborers’ International Union of North America (LiUNA), Kenneth W. Cooper, international president of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), Claude Cummings Jr., president of the Communications Workers of America (CWA) and Elizabeth H. Shuler, president of the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO)
• Remarks: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass
• Performance: Mickey Guton
• Joint Remarks on “Investing in the Future”: California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin A. Davis, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Sarah Rodriguez and Harris County, Texas Judge Lina Hidalgo

7 p.m.

• “Project 2025-Chapter One: Introduction”: Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow
• Remarks: U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schutz
• Remarks: U.S. Sen. Laphonza Butler
• Remarks: U.S. Rep. Linda Haskins
• Remarks: Lt. Jeremy Warmkessel, President of Local 302 IAFF Allentown Firefighters, Pennsylvania
• Remarks: Maria-Isabel Ballivian, Executive Director of the Annandale Christian Community for Action Childhood Development Center, Virginia
• Remarks: Deja Foxx, reproductive rights activists and content creator
• Performance: Jason Isbell
• Remarks: Gina M. Raimondo, United States secretary of commerce
• Remarks: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul

8 p.m.

• Remarks: Steve Kerr, Team USA men’s basketball coach
Shawn Fain, president of the United Automobile Workers
• U.S. Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez
• Remarks: Stacey Johnson-Batiste and Doris Johnson, childhood friends of Kamala Harris
• Hillary Rodham Clinton, former United States secretary of state
• U.S. Rep. James E. Clyburn
• U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin
• U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett
• U.S. Rep. Grace Meng

9 p.m.

• Joint Remarks: Amanda and Josh Zurawski, Texas; Kaitlyn Joshua, Louisiana; Hadley Duvall, Kentucky
• Remarks: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear
• Remarks: The Rev. Raphael G. Warnock, Georgia senator
• Remarks: U.S. Sen. Chris Coons
• Remarks: First Lady Jill Biden
• Performance: James Taylor
• Ashley Biden
• President Joe Biden
• Benediction: Rabbi Michael S. Beals and Pastor Cindy Rudolph
• Gavel out: Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan

Some of the DNCC’s events noted above were conducted at McCormick Place earlier in the day, including these speakers:

• Black Caucus featuring Rep. Barbara Lee and Rep. Jahana Hayes
• Hispanic Caucus featuring Miguel Cardona, House Democratic  Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar and Rep. Maxwell Frost
• AAPI Caucus featuring Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi
• Native American Caucus featuring Tucson Mayor Regina Romero
• Ethnic Council featuring Lisa Ann Walter and former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio
• LGBTQ+ Caucus featuring Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, BenDeLaCreme, and Peppermint
• Labor Council featuring Miguel Cardona, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Rep. Tom Suozzi, Rep. Donald Norcross, and AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler
• Small Business Council featuring Rep. Morgan McGarvey
• Environmental and Climate Crisis Council featuring Rep. Ro Khanna and AFT President Randi Weingarten

As media coverage of the convention begins, take heed:

Laffy @[email protected]

Via Richard Stengel:

A word of caution to the press: a political convention is the place where more journalists are in one place in search of fewer stories than any other situation. The tendency is to blow up something small because it’s new, not because it’s important. Don’t do that. #DNC2024

Aug 19, 2024, 01:56 PM

Expect bullshit coverage. In addition to likely puny-matters-blown-up for the clicks, there’s a raft of crap being strewn by right-wing media outlets right now, all of which looks like so much spaghetti thrown at the wall to see what will stick. Don’t help them.

2024 Remains an Unpredictable Race: Six Predictable Things that Could Still Upend It

Donald Trump announced he was running in the 2024 Presidential race over 21 months ago. Tomorrow marks four weeks since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. It marks two weeks since Vice President Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee. Monday, the Democratic Convention starts.

Back before and when Joe Biden dropped, I was certain about two things: that Kamala Harris would bring a lot more stamina to the race and she would give much better voice to a pro-Choice position that could impact the outcome of the race. I was also pretty sure that because someone was out selling wildly successful policies, both Biden and Harris’ approval ratings would improve (remember my screen caps are 5 hours ahead of ET; this tweet was three hours after Biden dropped and two after he endorsed Harris).

I hoped that Kamala would break the Double Hater logjam that has characterized the past two Presidential races (and this one, until that point).

Kamala’s approval ratings have gone up (Biden’s are less dramatic, but have ticked up maybe a point so far).

And newfound enthusiasm, especially among Independent voters, suggests the Vice President may, indeed, break that Double Hater logjam.

That said, I think far too many people are complacent in their belief that Harris will continue to slowly grow a lead that will be sustainable in the face of whatever rat-fuckery Trump tries in November.

If we’ve learned one thing about the 2024 election, it’s that normal predictions won’t hold.

I still think a true Black Swan event is possible — something like a global war.

I also think the unpredicted and widespread notoriety of Project 2025 will upend any normal political outcomes. It’s not just a post-Dobbs election (with abortion on the ballot in swing states like Arizona), but continued coverage of Project 2025 in both the political and the popular press has put democracy on the ballot in a surprising way.

But even the following six things are quite possible, which could significantly affect the race in a number of ways.

Big protests at DNC: Many of the people pressuring Biden to drop, including Nancy Pelosi, favored some kind of speed primary. Instead, Biden and Harris managed to make that impossible within 24 hours of his departure. So instead of a wildly divisive Convention, Harris can instead mostly look forward to a lovefest, where the biggest questions are whether Jimmy Carter can manage a video cameo and which surprise performers — potentially including Bruce Springsteen, Beyoncé, or even Taylor Swift will show up.

The very important caveat to that, though, is that around 30 Uncommitted delegates can will cause some dissension inside the Convention and tens of thousands of protestors will cause even more outside of it. It’s the latter I’m most worried about. The protests themselves will restore attention to the ongoing catastrophe in Gaza. But they’re also an easy target that provocateurs and right wing cops can exploit.

Meaningful ceasefire in Israel — or, further escalation: In the face of potential escalation, negotiators have redoubled efforts to forge some kind of ceasefire deal. But there’s some reason to believe that Trump and Bibi will thwart this at all costs.

The potential for Gaza to dampen Democratic enthusiasm (or to juice third party candidates) has long been a focus. But few have fully unpacked how it has been exploited by the right. So one way or another, this continues to be the most obvious pivot for more dissension among likely Democratic voters.

And all that’s before Iran’s very real efforts to target Donald Trump.

Superseding indictment and/or September sentencing for Trump: As of right now, Trump is due to be sentenced in his New York document fraud case on September 18 and the parties in Trump’s January 6 case should begin discussing what to do about SCOTUS’ immunity indictment in early September.

Yesterday, Trump asked to delay the sentencing until after the election. Roger Parloff gave a nuanced assessment of the mostly but not entirely frivolous request. Even if he’s sentenced, it’s not at all clear that Juan Merchan would sentence Trump to prison time.

Meanwhile, I’m not the only one who thinks that Jack Smith asked for an extension until the last possible day to supersede Trump before the election because he may be contemplating such a course (since I wrote that post, DOJ has chose to recharge even more crime scene January 6ers charged with obstruction). A superseding indictment might add his co-conspirators (what others predict) or change the crimes charged against Trump (my own suspicion). One way or another, though, there will be legal proceedings on the January 6 case in September, proceedings that have the possibility to expose more details about how closely Trump’s team worked with the Proud Boys or about how central a role Trump played in sending bodies to the Capitol.

The thing about both these eventualities is that it’s not at all clear whether the rule to date — that Trump’s legal troubles only make him more popular with right wingers — will hold, not least because independent voters will finally be tuning in. And even if they do, they’ll happen against a backdrop where Kamala is running as a prosecutor who has taken on thugs like Trump in the past.

Another tumultuous debate: Trump actually had a really poor debate in June, but a combination of asymmetric press coverage and normalization of Trump covered for that. If he has another such debate, it could serve as a real weight on his campaign.

But it’s really not guaranteed that Kamala will ace a debate either. Trump’s ability to reframe entire conversations is unmatched, and thus far no moderator has been able to rein that in. Plus, for at least half of Trump’s presidential debate appearances, he has arranged some kind of gimmick for them (such as hosting Tony Bobulinski or making a framed false claim about Biden’s role in the Mike Flynn investigation). Usually, they fizzle, but you can’t guarantee they will.

Further decline in Trump’s mental state: Honestly, I think the degree to which Trump’s rambling and grievance are new is wildly overblown. He has always been like this. But I think the way in which it has been perceived of late has changed. That’s partly true because his schtick has gotten tired enough that even Trumpsters have begun to tune out (and occasionally, leave his events) in noticeable numbers. Because Trump has attempted to replace his big rallies in recent weeks, appearing at events with smaller or no crowds, he hasn’t gotten the juice he normally gets from crowd adulation that he needs to pull off his performances.

That may change now that the Secret Service has developed a plexiglass booth to protect him outdoors.

Even still, Kamala Harris has found ways to trigger Trump’s ugliest side, making it harder for him to control his grievances.

As a result, the press and some Republicans have begun to comment on his mental performance in a way they’ve haven’t done since 2016.

Far right political violence: As I laid out here, Trump’s allies and Elon Musk have both been part of a transnational effort to stoke violence based on fearmongering about migrants. In the past, right wing efforts to sow fear based on fabricated claims about caravans and the like have failed. And there’s always the likelihood that Trump’s mob will rise up in response to one of the events above, such as a superseding indictment.

As noted at the start of this post, it is possible that Kamala Harris will continue to engage new voters, competing in states (started with North Carolina) that haven’t been competitive in years.

But that’s if trends continue. And this year, there’s lots of reason to question whether they will.

Update: WaPo’s latest (very positive for Kamala) poll shows that the number of people happy with their choices for POTUS have gone up 16 points, a measure of the decline in Double Haters.

In July, when the contest was still Biden vs. Trump, 28 percent of voters overall said they were satisfied with the choice. Today, 44 percent say they are satisfied with the choice of Harris or Trump.

Fruit Loops and Taco Talk

For weeks, journalists — some of them stoked by Donald Trump — have been complaining that Kamala Harris has yet to do an interview or a presser.

Instead of doing that yesterday, Kamala’s campaign released this video she and Tim Walz filmed in Detroit — really just one of the first days they had spent much time together.

 

In addition to Kamala scolding Walz for not answering the first call she made to offer him the Veep slot, there’s a great conversation about music (both agree on Prince, whereas Walz’ tastes may match Doug Emhoff’s more than Kamala’s herself), and a conversation about tacos that has driven far right trolls nuts.

They think Walz is lying when he says he doesn’t eat anything much spicier than pepper. As a long-time Midwesterner, those trolls are going to faceplant if they think they’re going to convince Midwesterners that a bland palate is anything but authentic.

This conversation would have been around August 7. The next day, when Madame Vice President and her running mate got Mexican food in Phoenix, she warned the staff to tone down the spice on Walz’ dish, because he couldn’t handle more than  black pepper.

But that’s the point. This video is, effectively, a kind of campaign selfie (something the campaign had already been doing, most notably when Barack and Michelle Obama called to endorse the Vice President). It’s the kind of thing that can go viral on TikTok among younger voters who really just want politicians to come off as real people.

By comparison, Trump did another event he billed as a press conference, though he didn’t take his first question until 46 minutes in.

With just a few exceptions, the questions are abysmal, mostly pro-Trump horse race questions asking for reassurances that he’ll be able to surge past Harris and Walz.

Journalists think they’re offering value with such interactions. They’re just fooling themselves. At this stage, voters really are more interested that Kamala and Coach Walz have genuinely held musical taste.

Trump presser questions

When have you last spoken with Bibi Netanyahu and what did you counsel him about cease fire? Trump at first answered when was the last time he saw Bibi. He went on to say he had not spoken to him since, which given the context may not rule out a conversation.

Why did god save your life?

Credit card debt softball.

Many of your allies say your personal strategy is not working, and is adding new people a sign of shifting strategy. I’m entitled to make personal attacks [on her because] I don’t have a lot of respect for her. She called me weird. They tell me I should be nice. They want to put me in prison. [Lies about his extensive efforts to put Hillary in prison.]

Nikki Haley said Republicans need to stop whining about Kamala Harris. Would you consider having Nikki Haley on the trail with you. All we have to do is lie about our opponent being a communist or a socialist.

Should the Federal government be responsible for determining food prices. She wants no fracking.

I know you say you’re leading but a Fox News poll out just yesterday has you up by just one point. How do you break away.

What’s your plan for holding China accountable [maybe for COVID?] if you get reelected?

You praise how Elon Musk treats workers, saying if they go on strike every one of you is gone. Are you really comfortable with companies who threaten to fire workers who go on strike? Sean O’Brien said firing workers who want to organize is economic terrorism. The Black population is absolutely threatened. The Hispanic population is absolutely threatened.

Tim Walz has been saying that you want to get things so that you can campaign on it. I wish I didn’t have to do this. Tampons in the bathrooms.

[Trump tries to end.]

Do you regret debating Biden so early in this race? Jake Tapper and Dana Bash were absolutely straight. ABC is the most unfair of all the networks. You know they’re hiding her, just like they’re hiding him.

[Trump tries to end.]

Wheaties or Cheerios? What happens to all these groceries? She’s 100 years old, she wants my autograph.

[crowd shots, occasionally with shouted questions, inaudible question]

What do you think about Ukraine’s incursion into Russia?

Can you say anything about the hacking of your campaign? I don’t like it. Really bad. I’m not happy with it. Our government shouldn’t let that happen. Does there need to be a government response? Yeah there should be. Our government should not let — they have no respect for our government.

Kamala Harris is cutting in on blue collar voters. Do you have a plan on how to push back on that? Do I have a plan? I have a plan.

[Trump tries to end.]

[More gladhanding.]

[Walt Nauta comes and whispers to Trump. After several more attempts, Trump leaves.]

With Tim Walz, There Is TOO Such a Thing as a Free Lunch

Among the numerous critiques I’ve seen from campaign pros and even Republicans about the Trump team is its advance work. First they put JD Vance in front of a half-hidden banner that made him look like he was pitching the Vice President, and since then they keep putting JD Vance in empty parking lots with anemic crowd set-ups.

Then they tried to force Trump to adhere to a policy topic at a 2,500-person venue in Asheville, NC by putting economic slogans — no tax on tips! no tax on social security! — on the backdrop.

It didn’t work. He still made substance free attacks on Kamala Harris.

Yesterday’s so-called press conference was something else. Trump’s staffers had gone shopping in advance, with a bunch of consumer goods laid out on tables behind him. He mostly ignored the props, while reading from a notebook about rising prices in a bored rant. “Grocery prices have skyrocketed,” he said. “Surreals are up 26%,” he seemed to say.

Indeed they are. It was a real Fruit Loops performance.

After finishing a 45-minute monotone speech, Trump finally turned to the products behind him, “wow!” and read off the list of purported price increases. “Up 65% — wow — school lunches up 65%. How can a family afford that?”

At some point, this has to be sabotage. Because if the problem is that nobody can afford school lunches, then Tim Walz looks like the solution.

Under Governor Walz, Minnesota made free no-questions asked school breakfasts and lunches available to any kids. It’s akin to another of the measures Walz signed designed to eliminate barriers to getting kids in schools learning, just like the free tampon program that right wingers have turned into a transphobic attack.

Even as Trump laid out a problem that, in Minnesota, Walz already fixed, Vice President Harris was announcing anti-gouging initiative to bring other food prices down.

The Saudi Payments to Trump Are More Important than the Suspected Egyptian One

As you know, I was calling on the press to focus on the suspected $10 million payment Egypt made to Trump before it was cool — since even before the WaPo significantly advanced the story over a month later.

In the aftermath of Trump’s shitshow presser last week, a slew of people have started calling on the handpicked set of journalists who’ll attend today’s presser to focus on the Egyptian payment.

It is important that Trump face questions about it.

But, in my opinion, that’s not the most important financial windfall to question. The ongoing Saudi funding of Trump is.

There are four payments of interest:

  • The $2 billion investment in Jared Kushner’s investment fund after Mohammed bin Salman overrode the recommendations of advisors who pointed out he’s unqualified and was charging too much.
  • The LIV golf tournaments hosted at Trump properties; while Forbes has estimated the tournaments were a minimal part of Trump Organization revenue, they put Trump at the center of a Saudi influence-peddling racket that was too toxic for even Vivek Ramaswamy.
  • The freebie branding deal for a development in Oman, for which Trump has already pocketed $5 million.
  • The more recent deal — with the same government-connected construction firm as the Oman deal — for a Trump Tower in Jeddah.

There are a bunch of reasons why the Saudi payments are more important.

First, while the Egyptian payment does seem to have coincided with increased coziness on Trump’s part for Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, the Saudi/Gulf influence-peddling was orchestrated even earlier by Tom Barrack (and assisted by Paul Manafort). There’s good reason to suspect the autocrats of the world are at least chatting openly about efforts to reinstall Trump, because he will undermine democracy and human rights.

The Jared investment, especially, looks like a quid pro quo for America’s help downplaying the Jamal Khashoggi assassination. That is, that payment, at least, looks like a specific payoff, a payoff for letting Mohammed bin Salman chop up a US resident journalist with a bone saw.

As noted, Trump’s involvement in LIV really legitimized a clear Saudi influence-peddling racket.

The branding deals in Oman and Jeddah parallel the free money Moscow Trump Tower deal that was fairly clearly an attempt to purchase Trump (and put Trump back in the business of selling money laundering vehicles to corrupt people again).

The branding deals are especially troubling given the closer involvement of Eric and Don Jr in Trump’s campaign this time. Will Trump do what he did the last time, and install his children in the White House and give them access to classified records they would otherwise never be cleared to access?

And finally, there are the missing stolen documents. According to the indictment, Trump took boxes of documents with him to Bedminster after he hid them from Evan Corcoran (and he had the classified Iran document with him the previous summer in Bedminster). As ABC reported last month, Trump snuck back to Mar-a-Lago, a trip witnesses described was an effort to check on his stolen documents. Then, weeks later, the Saudis arrived for their golf tournament. By all accounts, there must be documents outstanding, and one possible explanation for their disappearance is they left the country.

Finally, and most simply, Trump has not (as far as I’ve seen) even remotely addressed what he will do with his existing Saudi deals if he is elected in November. Even if he agreed to shelter himself from the business (assuming, of course, that he doesn’t give either Don Jr or Eric a job in the White House), we would have to assume he was lying, just like he lied the last time.

We literally do not know whether Trump would enter the White House as a business partner, an employee, or an unregistered foreign agent of the Saudis.

The Saudi financial tie is ongoing and prospective. That makes it a far more urgent issue than a payment that may have been made over seven years ago.

Update: Amicus12 adds another reason to worry about the Saudi deals: Trump’s past efforts to strike a nuclear deal with the Saudis, which could be used to get nukes.

In Attempting To Claim WaPo Doesn’t Chase Rat-Fucks, WaPo Lies about Chasing Rat-Fucks

I’m the rarity among lefties who supports the decision of Politico, WaPo, and NYT (thus far) to not publish the actual files that a persona suspected to have ties to Iranian hackers sent them. That’s true, partly because I think this hack could be even more dangerous than the one of Hillary. But it’s also true because of the opportunity cost that publishing stolen documents incurs.

I prefer Kamala Harris’ message to remain the affirmative message she’s running on, and to the extent that those outlets are doing reporting like the story further developing the suspected $10 million payment via Egypt to Trump, I’d like them to continue to pursue real reporting, as well.

One of the real impacts of the files Russia hacked in 2016 is that they distracted journalists from harder work, work about what a corrupt man Trump is. Campaign reporters are already distracted too easily by nonsense stuff; they don’t need any further distractions from their day job.

That said, reporters don’t have to publish the actual documents to address something that is clearly newsworthy about the files. As Politico explained, the main thing the persona has sent so far was a draft of the vetting document for JD Vance and Marco Rubio.

A research dossier the campaign had apparently done on Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, which was dated Feb. 23, was included in the documents. The documents are authentic, according to two people familiar with them and granted anonymity to describe internal communications. One of the people described the dossier as a preliminary version of Vance’s vetting file.

The research dossier was a 271-page document based on publicly available information about Vance’s past record and statements, with some — such as his past criticisms of Trump — identified in the document as “POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.” The person also sent part of a research document about Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who was also a finalist for the vice presidential nomination.

Note, this mirrors one of the first things Guccifer 2.0 released in 2016: Hillary’s oppo dossier on Trump. So in addition to its use of an AOL account, this persona is adopting another of the Russian persona’s tactics.

Again, I’m cool with outlets sitting on the dossier itself. But the content of it is newsworthy. That’s because after JD Vance’s rocky rollout, both donors and Trump himself are asking whether vetters were surprised by Vance’s misogynist public statements.

Over the past two weeks, Mr. Trump has fielded complaints from donors about his running mate, JD Vance, as news coverage exploring Mr. Vance’s past statements unearthed — and then exhaustively critiqued — remarks including a lament that America was run by “childless cat ladies.”

Mr. Trump dismissed out of hand donors’ suggestions that he replace Mr. Vance on the ticket. But Mr. Trump privately asked his advisers whether they had known about Mr. Vance’s comments about childless women before Mr. Trump chose him.

I’d also like to know if Trump’s vetting team knew of the pictures of JD wearing drag while at Yale, which have become the subject of memes on social media.

Whether the dossier was comprehensive matters (particularly given that a law firm also involved in Trump’s criminal defense completed it). It matters, most of all, because Trump has swapped the mediocre Ivanka as his primary familial advisor for the incompetent Don Jr, and the failson had a key role in picking JD.

So it would be newsworthy to reveal the scope and the thoroughness (or not) of the vetting document.

That said, I think every outlet that is sitting on these documents, particularly if they’re withholding details about any oversights in JD’s vetting document, owes the public an explanation of why they’re adopting a double standard as compared to their poor choices from 2016.

WaPo, which is trying to hunker through controversy about Will Lewis’ possible role in covering up Murdoch’s phone hacking,  tried to do that yesterday. Matt Murray boasted that outlets were taking a breath, and then went on to claim that the vetting document isn’t newsworthy because the six-month old vetting document isn’t, “fresh or new enough.”

“This episode probably reflects that news organizations aren’t going to snap at any hack that comes in and is marked as ‘exclusive’ or ‘inside dope’ and publish it for the sake of publishing,” said Matt Murray, executive editor of The Post. Instead, “all of the news organizations in this case took a deep breath and paused, and thought about who was likely to be leaking the documents, what the motives of the hacker might have been, and whether this was truly newsworthy or not.”

[snip]

“In the end, it didn’t seem fresh or new enough,” Murray said.

WaPo even attempted to address something virtually all discussions about using rat-fucked documents in the context of the suspected Iranian hack do not: the treatment of the Hunter Biden laptop, the most innocent provenance explanation for which is that, after pursuing a laptop from foreigners with ties to Russian intelligence for a year, Rudy Giuliani received just such a laptop out of the blue from a blind computer repairman.

Here’s what WaPo claims about how reserved news organizations were with the hard drives described as the Hunter Biden laptop.

News organizations have been tested since 2016. Wary of (1) hacked materials since then, many proved reluctant to report on the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop out of concerns that they were the result of a hack. As the conservative press latched on to (2) allegedly incriminating emails found on the computer in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign, more mainstream outlets did not join in a 2016-style frenzy over the material, and Facebook and Twitter limited distribution of a New York Post story about the laptop.

An analysis by The Post nearly two years later confirmed the authenticity of many of the emails on the laptop and found no evidence of a hack. [my annotation]

Note the two reasons alluded to in this passage, both of which show up in Murray’s claimed explanation for sitting on the JD Vance dossier. There were two concerns, according to the WaPo:

  1. Was the laptop “hacked”?
  2. Did the “allegedly incriminating emails” prove what the NYPost claimed they did?

Then, in the next paragraph, WaPo addresses just one of those two issues, whether the hard drive copied from a copy of a laptop, was hacked. WaPo claims, falsely, that the linked story describing the results of Jake Williams and Matt Green’s analysis “found no evidence of a hack.”

For starters, that’s a category error. This is a copy of a copy of a laptop, not the laptop itself. What their analysis attempted to assess was the authenticity of the emails on the laptop — but two different security researchers were only able to do so for a fraction of the emails. This analysis made no attempt to assess whether the stuff on the laptop was packaged up from authentic files (or from a combination of authentic and doctored files). Far more importantly, given details of Hunter’s cloud accounts, it did not assess whether people besides Hunter Biden had access his cloud data (evidence at his gun case described that not just his mistress, Zoe Kestan, accessed his cloud data, but his drug dealers accessed at least his bank account).

But it did find that the copy of a copy of a laptop lacked marks of reliability and did include files placed there by someone other than Hunter Biden.

Most of the data obtained by The Post lacks cryptographic features that would help experts make a reliable determination of authenticity, especially in a case where the original computer and its hard drive are not available for forensic examination. Other factors, such as emails that were only partially downloaded, also stymied the security experts’ efforts to verify content.

[snip]

In their examinations, Green and Williams found evidence that people other than Hunter Biden had accessed the drive and written files to it, both before and after the initial stories in the New York Post and long after the laptop itself had been turned over to the FBI.

[snip]

“From a forensics standpoint, it’s a disaster,” Williams said. (The Post is paying Williams for the professional services he provided. Green declined payment.)

[snip]

Neither expert reported finding evidence that individual emails or other files had been manipulated by hackers, but neither was able to rule out that possibility.

[snip]

Analysis was made significantly more difficult, both experts said, because the data had been handled repeatedly in a manner that deleted logs and other files that forensic experts use to establish a file’s authenticity.

“No evidence of tampering was discovered, but as noted throughout, several key pieces of evidence useful in discovering tampering were not available,” Williams’ reports concluded.

There are several details, disclosed subsequent to the story, that it lacks: It doesn’t talk about the ways the story John Paul Mac Isaac’s attorney told WaPo conflict with the story JPMI would tell in his book (one very significant conflict pertains to the date when JPMI reached out to the FBI). It doesn’t describe that JPMI himself disavowed some of the content on the Jack Maxey hard drive, the one shared with the WaPo. It doesn’t describe that Hunter has sued Garrett Ziegler and Rudy Giuliani for hacking him (the former survived Ziegler’s motion to dismiss; the latter was dismissed pending the end of Rudy’s bankruptcy; as far as I know, Hunter has not yet renewed the suit against Rudy given the imminent dismissal of Rudy’s bankruptcy). It doesn’t describe that in court filings, Abbe Lowell affirmatively claimed that the data on the laptop itself — not the copy! — had been compromised before being shared with the FBI.

Defense counsel has numerous reasons to believe the data had been altered and compromised before investigators obtained the electronic material from Apple Inc. and The Mac Shop, such that the Special Counsel’s claim that the underlying data is “authentic” (id. at 4) and accurately reflects “defendant’s Apple Macbook Pro and [] hard drive” (id. at 2) is mistaken.

Mr. Biden’s counsel told the Special Counsel on May 10, 2024 it agrees not to challenge the authenticity of the electronic data the Special Counsel intends to use with respect to it being what law enforcement received on December 9, 2019 from John Paul Mac Isaac (owner of The Mac Shop), and from Apple on August 29, 2019 and in a follow-up search on July 10, 2020. (Mot. at n.3.) However, Mr. Biden cannot agree this electronic data is “authentic” as to being his data as he used and stored it prior to Mac Issac obtaining it.

WaPo relies on a two year old story that has been significantly preempted to claim that the copy of the copy of the laptop was not hacked. The story never made such a claim, and the claims it has made have been undermined since.

But there’s an even more telling aspect of WaPo’s self-satisfied claim that reporters gave up their rabid addiction for rat-fuckery after 2016. It doesn’t address whether the laptop subsequently became newsworthy.

There’s good reason for that: Because after the election, WaPo did embrace the laptop, even the doctored one they got from Maxey, as part of a years-long campaign of dick pic sniffing. Their lead dick pic sniffers, Matt Viser and Devlin Barrett, even made shit up when disgruntled IRS agents released details that raised questions about the integrity of the original copy. Since then, prosecutors themselves have described that the extraction of the copy of the laptop they received — the one whence all the data that sloppy reporters call “the laptop” came — is 62% bigger, measured in terms of pages, than the laptop itself. There are potentially innocent explanations for why the hard drive purporting to be a copy of the laptop would not match it, but those explanations would conflict with JPMI’s explanations for how he made the copy. And, scandalously, the FBI never made an index of the laptop, and Judge Maryellen Noreika allowed it to be used in the trial against Hunter without ever even assuring that the forensic reports on the extraction of the two devices matched what got certified to her in a court filing.

And WaPo is not alone in its continuing addiction to relying on a copy of a copy of a laptop with such provenance problems. Just yesterday, NYT’s Ken Vogel did a story that relied on the laptop which basically said, Hunter Biden asked the Commerce Department for help on Burisma but it blew him off (unsurprisingly, Vogel also struggles with the court filings on which he bases his news hook). Four years after Vogel’s chum Rudy Giuliani released the laptop, three weeks after Joe Biden dropped out, NYT is still reporting the absence of news in an 8-year old email as news, precisely the kind of attention suck that rat-fuckers seek when they provide stolen documents to people like Vogel.

Again, in my opinion, WaPo is right not to publish the JD Vance dossier, though that’s different than using it to assess whether there were big gaps in the vetting of Trump’s unpopular running mate.

But WaPo is telling fairy tales about whether mainstream outlets gave up their fondness for rat-fuckery.

They did not. For four years, they have been utterly addicted to the rat-fuckery of the laptop, to the exclusion of reporting on all the details that should raise cautions disclosed since then.

And as such, the decision not to embrace this rat-fuckery, however correct it might be, is a double standard.