Hunter Biden Pleads Guilty

Hunter Biden just pled guilty to all of the tax charges against him, staving off a trial in which prosecutors were intent to once again introduce things unrelated to tax charges.

He will be sentenced in December.

Update: Here is Hunter’s statement.

I went to trial in Delaware not realizing the anguish it would cause my family, and I will not put them through it again. When it became clear to me that the same prosecutors were focused not on justice but on dehumanizing me for my actions during my addiction, there was only one path left for me. I will not subject my family to more pain, more invasions of privacy and needless embarrassment. For all I have put them through over the years, I can spare them this, and so I have decided to plead guilty.

Like millions of Americans, I failed to file and pay my taxes on time. For that I am responsible. As I have stated, addiction is not an excuse, but it is an explanation for some of my failures at issue in this case.

When I was addicted, I wasn’t thinking about my taxes, I was thinking about surviving. But the jury would never have heard that or know that I had paid every penny of my back taxes including penalties.

That I have been clean and sober for more than five years now because I have had the love and support of my family.

I can never repay them for showing up for me and helping me through my worst moments. But I can protect them from being publicly humiliated for my failures.

For anyone now going through the scourge of addiction, please know there is a light at the end of that seemingly endless tunnel. I was where you are now. Don’t quit right before the miracle.

 

The Doppelgänger Dossier

Yesterday, one day short of 60 days before the November election, the US government did four things:

  • Indicted two RT officials, Konstantin Kalashnikov and Elena Mikhaylovna Afanasyeva, and in the process exposed some right wing influencers to be useful idiots paid indirectly by RT.
  • Unsealed the domain takedown affidavit for a bunch of sites used in a Russian fake news program, Doppelgänger.
  • Imposed Treasury sanctions on RT and Doppelgänger, among other entities.
  • Indicted Dmitri Simes and his spouse, Anastasia, on sanctions tied to Aleksander Udodov.

In this post, I want to lay out precisely what was included in the affidavit, before I have further comment on all four of these efforts.

Affidavit: The affidavit itself describes how Russia has been impersonating real media outlets, including the Washington Post and Fox News, that it uses to embed false stories supporting its attack on Ukraine. It bases the takedown on two claims. First, that by hiding the tie to top Putin aide, Sergei Kiriyenko, who was first sanctioned in March 2021, in response to the Aleksey Navalny poisoning, the propaganda effort violates sanctions regimes.The affidavit also alleges that these fake sites traffic in counterfeit goods, basically fake news sites and news articles infringing on the trademarks of three real US outlets (WaPo, Fox, and Forward, including content pretending to come from real journalists).

As the affidavit describes, Russia is using far better operational security than it did in 2016, with nesting sets of Virtual Private Servers and emails at Protonmail rather than Google (though the RT people are still using Google).

The affidavit describes what must be documents stolen from someone’s server, explaining several parts of the program, such as notes from meetings planning the operation, excerpts from western reporting on the Doppelgänger effort, and guidelines for how to accomplish the tasks, including via campaigns targeting Mexico and Israel.

About fifty pages of the affidavit lays out probable cause and lists the domains targeted. The affidavit was obtained on August 30.

Exhibit 1 Fake news stories: The first exhibit includes samples of the fake stories Russia used on their newsites, interspersed with stolen stories more detrimental to Russia. This fake story, published as Joe Biden tried to push a border bill tied to Ukraine funding, provides some idea of how closely this propaganda worked with US politics.

The stories in the fake Forward site show how Russia was trying to sow division regarding US involvement in Israel, which ties closely to two other documents included yesterday (Exhibits 12 and 13).

Exhibit 2 commentary on Doppelgänger: The Russians collected western commentary — from newspapers, security reports, and other NGOs. This includes excerpts that had been shared internally in Russian.

Exhibit 3 Work with Comments: This provides instruction on how to use comments to link back to the fake news sites.

Exhibit 4: Sample story: This is what the affidavit supposes is a story intended for one of the fake websites. It starts by claiming that “[Joe Biden’s] diplomacy has led the United States not only to the covert participation in the proxy war in Ukraine, but also to an open clash in the Middle East. [Joe Biden] destroyed the world he presented to the voters. It’s time for him to go.” The story comes with suggestions for how fake commenters on social media — pretending to be “an American living in a small town” — would pitch this story.

Exhibit 5: Recommended comments: Another example of a suggested comment from a fake American, starting with the claim that, “The U.S. is a house of cards that is about to collapse.”

Exhibit 6 Media plan: This is a longer, 26-page manual for targeting the Ukrainian public. It includes four goals:

  • Undermining military and political leadership
  • Discord among elites
  • Loss of morale in the Ukrainian Armed Forces
  • Sowing discord in the population

Exhibit 7 How to sow chaos in Germany and France: This document develops media strategies to maximize chaos in America’s NATO allies. The two most interesting suggestions pertain to internal political chaos: recommending that Alternative for Deutschland (Germany’s far right party) be treated as martyrs and stoking unhappiness after Emmanuel Macron raised the retirement age.

Exhibit 8 Good Old USA: One of two sections focusing primarily on the United States, this document lays out the stakes for magnifying MAGAt views:

The current international environment is known for, first and foremost, severe hostility of the US towards Russia. The USA has been trying to maintain “the global leadership” by strategically defeating Russia. This desire shapes the financial investment, weapons supply, and efforts to keep the conflict in Ukraine going.

In the meantime, the key question in the US domestic policy remains the same: how justified are these efforts? The further we go, the more politicians state that the US should target their effort towards addressing its domestic issues instead of wasting money in Ukraine and other “problem” regions.

This sentiment has become the centerpiece for the US 2024 presidential election campaign. While [Democrats] are still in power, they are trying to maintain the current foreign policy priorities. [Republicans,] still in opposition, have been criticizing these priorities.

It makes sense for Russia to put a maximum effort to ensure that the [Republicans’] point of view, first and foremost, the opinion of [Trump’s] supporters) wins over the US public opinion. This includes provisions on peace in Ukraine in exchange for territories, the need to focus on the problems of the US economy, returning troops home from all over the world, etc.

Public opinion polling results in the US indicate that the politics which we consider correct has a real chance to get approval of the majority of the US voters. [emphasis original]

It sets goals for polling percentage (for example, trying to move opposition to supporting Ukraine from 41% to 51%).

It treats Texas among the states (with Alabama, Kansas, Wyoming, and Louisiana) that it believes have traditional values that should support Republicans, and targets US citizens of Hispanic descent — and American Jews — specifically. It also identifies American gamers, as if they’re a big percentage of voters.

Aside from the misunderstanding of how close to purple Texas could become, this document matches what Trump is doing, down to the focus on right wing podcasters (who would be favored by gamers) rather than traditional outlets. This document is one of several that made me ask if Paul Manafort has still been working with his Russian buddies.

Exhibit 9 Guerrilla media: This is another document targeting the US. It notes that Biden at that point (the precise dates of these documents is not entirely clear) had approval lower than 40%, but doesn’t mention Trump’s approval, which would be little better. It also repeats right wing claims that the media is 75% skewed to the Democratic party. As I’ll return to, this document repeatedly claims that social media moderation amounts to censorship of Republicans.

Exhibit 10 Social Media influencers: This document proposes setting up a network of 200 fake Xitter accounts, four each in every state, to push Russian propaganda.

Exhibit 11 A Mexican pass to Trump: This document proposes creating artificial tension on the border by stoking (alleged) Mexican opposition to the US.

The [Trump] who was building a border wall; the [Trump] who talked about the problem of migrants coming from the South pretty much all the time throughout his presidency; and the [Trump], to whom the ball needs to be passed conveniently in order to switch the American political discussion — that [Trump] is so much in need of an exacerbated confrontation with Mexico.

Yet the document bemoans that the growth of the US economy is the biggest problem for Trump’s campaign.

Exhibit 12 The Comprehensive Information Outreach Project in Israel: This attempts to stoke fear of Nazis to lead Israelis to side with Russia over Ukraine. It likens opposition to Bibi Netanyahu to Maidan. It doesn’t appear to mention that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish.

Exhibit 13 Disaster 23: The US will soon have its hands full with issues other than Israel: This document purports to pose as an Israeli worried that civil war in the US (in response to the effort to boot Trump off the ballot in Colorado) is inevitable, which would leave Israel isolated.

Update: Corrected translation for AfD party.

Don Jr’s Online Buddies Allegedly Demand $5 Million from Russian Shell Companies to Say Nice Things about His Daddy

When DOJ announced today it would unseal legal actions against Russian influence operations, the former President’s failson complained, “Here we go again. LOL”

Some hours later, it became clear that a number of right wing influencers, including Tim Pool, Dave Rubin, and Benny Johnson, were unwittingly on the take from Russia, via Tenet Media, which DOJ alleges in a new indictment is a front company for RT.

I consider myself a connoisseur of a well-written indictments. And this, released days after Labor Day and implicating a number of Americans, may be one of my favorites.

Start with the two crimes alleged, like the innermost layer in a matryoshka doll.

The indictment only charges two things. First, conspiracy to violate FARA (18 USC 371), based on just only charges four overt acts, all pertaining to RT persona Elena Afanasyeva:

  • Konstantyn Kalashnikov’s addition of Afanasyeva to Tenet’s Discord Server in August 2023.
  • Afanasyeva’s circulation fo 841 video clips that got posted onto Tenet’s social media channels, possibly including the video of Tucker Carlson getting off after shopping in a Moscow grocery store.
  • Tenet’s June 2024 authorization for Afanasyeva and Kalashnikov to post on Tenet’s platform.
  • 30 wire transfers to Tenet, though countries including Türkiye, the Emirates, Mauritius, Czechia, and Hungary, all ultimately going through a bank in NYC.

The second charge, conspiracy to commit money laundering, describes only that Kalashnikov and Afanasyeva used a variety of means to hide that RT was paying for all this.

To prove the FARA charge — one you’d only need to prove if Kalashnikov and Afanasyeva showed up in the US for arrest — you’d need to prove that the two RT people succeeded in influencing US politics, and deliberately hid that they were doing so on behalf of a Russian entity. And RT is sufficient — you wouldn’t need to show that RT was paid by the Russian government.

So you have to show how they worked through cut-outs, the two people who run Tenet media and through them the influencers like Tim Pool and Benny Johnson who got duped.

And that requires you showing how RT set up fake personas, including a fake funder named Eduard Grigoriann, as a front to use to convince Pool and Johnson this was all legit, so that after one of them — I believe this is Pool — asked for more information about whom he’d be working with, they would have ready answers.

One of the other figureheads — either Johnson or Dave Rubin — complained about this fake funder (FBI mocks them all because they keep spelling his name wrong), because he used woke language:

Commentator-1 had “a problem with the profile we sent over, specifically the reference to ‘social justice.” I think it may be because that’s usually a term used by liberals, but we’re trying to create a conservative network.”

That led to a Zoom meeting that the persona, Grigoriann may have missed, because they fucked up the time difference between Paris and Moscow.

At approximately 8:58 a.m. Central Time that day, “Eduard Grigoriann” replied to his earlier email: “I am there guys.” The time, in fact, was 3:58 p.m. in Paris — but it was 4:58 p.m. in Moscow. Approximately two minutes later, “Eduard Grigoriann” performed a Google search for “time in Paris.” “Eduard Grigoriann” them replied to his email, in part: “Sorry, wrong hour. Didn’t sync the calendar.”

There’s some real clown show stuff in this. But it didn’t matter for Pool and whichever one is Commentator-1, because they signed contracts worth almost $5 million a year or $100,000 per non-exclusive video.

The money laundering part of the indictment describes that RT has laundered $10 million to pay for Tenet’s work.

Which brings me back to the logic of this indictment. As noted, it’s all focused on the Russians, and even there, the evidence in the indictment consists of IP addresses showing they accessed Tenet servers from the same IP address they used to access their Gmail accounts from Moscow. There’s undoubtedly a lot of SIGINT behind what the US government knows about the operation.

It’s not necessary to prove criminal charges.

And there’s no First Amendment equities, because Afanasyeva and Kalashnikov are both overseas.

Even if DOJ hadn’t missed the 60-day window for the election by two days, there’d be no election implications for the same reason.

But this indictment will continue to work for the next two months, until the election and thereafter.

In the presser announcing this and another legal action, DOJ emphasized that this investigation is very much ongoing.

For people like Pool and one of the other Commentators, so long as they claim to be duped by these awful Russians, they’re in the clear, legally (interestingly, Pool has ties to Cassandra Fairbanks, who was targeted by RT in 2016). In fact, Pool has posted to just that effect.

My statement regarding allegations and the leaked [sic] DOJ Indictment

Should these allegations prove true, I as well as the other personalities and commentators were deceived and are victims. I cannot speak for anyone else at the company as to what they do or to what they are instructed

The Culture War Podcast was licensed by Tenet Media, it existed well before any license agreement with Tenet and it will continue to exist after any such agreement expires. The only change with the agreement was that the location of the live broadcast moved to Tenet’s Youtube Channel.

Never at any point did anyone other than I have full editorial control of the show and the contents of the show are often apolitical. Examples include discussing spirituality, dating, and videos games.

The show is produced in its entirety by our local team without input from anyone external to the company

TCW is separate company not associated with http://Timcast.com or other properties. It exists solely for the production of the Culture War Podcast

That being said, we still do not know what is true as these are only allegations.

Putin is a scumbag, Russia sucks donkey balls

And to the journalists who wish to jump the gun, create their own narrative, or lie about what is currently going on,

you can eat my irish ass

Tim Pool is now on the record with “donkey balls.”

But there are other people — certainly the two founders of Tenet — whose actions might be crimes, either Foreign Agent and/or sanctionable crimes.

DOJ doesn’t tell us about the fate of those people. Perhaps there are other indictments buried somewhere. Perhaps they are coming.

Anyway, read the whole thing: It’s a tale of right wing grift, sloppy operational security that was nonetheless adequate to satisfy far right grifters, and a far bigger spend on the part of Russia to play in this year’s election.

And read it, too, for how even the producers who worked for Tenet, who also appear to have known the gig, thought that Tucker Carlson’s video, pretending to be wowed by a Russian supermarket was too much. “It just feels like overt shilling.”

Nevertheless they shilled away.

Stop Obsessing about Kamala Harris’ (Polling) Bumps

I’m going to defend Jonathan Karl, who described ABC’s poll showing a six point lead over Trump as within the margin of error. Here is Dan Drezner’s complaint about Karl’s comment, which is similar to that of many other people.

Take, for example, Sunday’s ABC News/Ipsos poll of the national race. It showed Harris leading 52%-46% among likely voters, a six-point lead that was outside the margin of error. Given the closeness of the race, a national poll showing Harris ahead seems newsworthy.

That, however, is not how ABC’s Jonathan Karl chose to frame it:

Karl says that Harris’ lead is “just barely outside the margin of error,” which is just a weird way to describe one of the few polls where someone has a statistically significant lead. Karl could have simply pivoted from the poll result to talk about how it’s still very close in the Electoral College — but he didn’t. Instead, he described a poll in which Harris had a significant lead as a toss-up.

It’s absolutely right that this poll is outside the margin of error (it is unchanged since before the convention). But Karl is right that the race is much closer in swing states, where voters have been flooded with Trump attacks on Harris for weeks now.

I think Democrats are telling themselves a wildly overoptimistic story about this race. I’m grateful Kamala and her campaign manager keep warning that she remains the underdog in this race.

That’s because this race is unlike any normal race. That’s true not just because Harris is a mixed race woman, though both her gender and race should raise concerns that the polls are overestimating her support (we literally hear stories about Republican women wondering if their spouses will learn for whom they voted). But it’s true because Kamala is not yet halfway through her race, and she’s running against a former President over 90% of the way done.

Pundits are measuring this odd campaign rhythm according to normal rules, such as that conventions bring a bounce (neither did this year) or that Labor Day marks some line in a sand about the final stage of the race.

As one example, both Frank Luntz

And Nate Silver

Pointed to this single Michigan poll of 600 possible voters to defend their argument that the Vice President has not gotten a bump from the convention. Neither of these men — a Republican partisan and a guy whose gambling habit may be influencing his analysis — are reliable sources.

And this is a particularly bad poll on which to base such judgments. Polling in MI has been pretty shitty going back two decades (though it is true that Trump has underperformed in many of them). It took WDIV/Detroit News five days to release this poll as compared to one day for their July poll. It was all done post-RFK endorsement of Trump (and as such could reflect RFK’s Trump-leaning vote moving to the former president), but before his bid to be removed from the ballot failed. Because of Michigan’s significant Arab American population, it is the swing state most likely to be influenced by Biden’s failures on Israeli policy. The August poll has a Likely Voter category (the one they report) and a Definite Voter category, the latter of which Kamala leads by 1.6%.

And as my former blogmate Dana Houle (who has run statewide campaigns in MI) noted, this poll delays release of crosstabs, and when they released theirs in January, they showed wildly unlikely results (results equally inconsistent with July’s poll).

More importantly, both the WDIV poll and the ABC one show two things that many polls are reflecting: First, while overall support for the candidates may look the same, the nature of their support is changing, with a gender split growing for each.

More curiously, that’s happening even as Kamala Harris’ favorability is going up. Even Joe Biden is on course to tip over into favorable ratings by election day!

That’s also happening as the electorate, at least in the short term, is becoming more female, more diverse.

What’s going on with the race is that Trump has a ceiling of support. While more men may be saying they’ll vote for Trump, Trump is not getting more popular.

And so he needs to do something to increase Kamala’s negatives (the success of negative ads may explain the narrower polling in swing states, but Trump’s future ad payments may indicate he’s blowing the money it would take to keep that up).

And therein, I think, was the intent of the Arlington Cemetery stunt — where Trump’s people, invited in by a few people who lost family members in the Afghan withdraw — took video from the gravesides of people whose family did not give consent, and did so after physically shoving a cemetery staffer.

This is the Benghazi playbook. Trump’s attempt to politicize an Afghan withdrawal that he played an instrumental role, according to his own former National Security Adviser, in making chaotic. This is, as everything with Trump is, a planned stunt coordinated with the House GOP.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) announced that Congress will honor the 13 American service members killed in the attack by presenting their families with the Congressional Gold Medal on Sept. 10.

“Congress has a duty to ensure these sacrifices are never forgotten, and it is my distinct honor to announce that Congress will bestow the families of these 13 heroes with the Congressional Gold Medal — the highest award Congress can present to any individual or group,” Johnson said in a statement released last week.

The ceremony, and remarks by a bevy of Republican lawmakers, will take place at the U.S. Capitol Rotunda the same day as the presidential debate between Harris and Trump.

Like Trump’s planned attack on Biden incorporating documents altered by DOJ, and like his hosting of Tony Bobulinski in October 2020, Trump is hoping he can use the debate to stage a Reality TV event that gives right wingers a hook for the remainder of the campaign.

The reason why right wingers still complain that 51 former spooks said, truthfully, that the Hunter Biden laptop looked like an Russian information operation is that it undercut Trump’s Reality TV show; Trump even tried to use that as his stunt for the debate with Biden.

Here, though, Trump doesn’t have the two to four years on which both the Hunter Biden laptop and the Benghazi attacks built. Plus, the Arlington stunt has begun to backfire, most notably with John McCain’s son publicly endorsing Kamala in response. If Jamie Raskin succeeds in getting answers from DOD about what happened before the debate, it risks upending Trump’s hoped-for attack by demonstrating the contempt in which he holds service members. This risks turning into yet another story on how Trump believes service members are suckers and losers.

There’s one more thing that remains unsteady in this race: The great disparity in most polls between statewide and presidential polling (one exception out today, CNN’s, shows at least two state races — the Senate races in AZ and PA — that are not remotely credible). That may reflect misses in the modeling of the race more generally.

Kamala Harris has not gotten the polling bumps where pundits are trained to look for them.

But even as they watch for those signs closely, they’re not contemplating how other nearly unprecedented movement might shape the race.

Update: One more point about the weird timing of this race. USAT has a poll (which finished fieldwork on August 28) showing that Kamala has significantly narrowed the margins on the two topics Trump wanted to run on: the economy and immigration.

Harris also has made inroads on which candidate would do a better job handling important issues.

  • On the economy, voters’ top concern, Trump was favored over Harris by 6 percentage points, 51%-45%. That’s an asset, to be sure, but it is less than half the 14-point advantage he held over Biden in June.
  • On immigration, an issue that energizes Republican voters, Trump was favored by 3 points, 50%-47%, down from the 13-point preference he had over Biden.

She has narrowed that gap, even while she’s still rolling out policy proposals, such as new tax credits to support small business formation.

Harris’ proposal, released on Tuesday, calls for significantly expanding the tax deduction for start-up expenses from $5,000 to $50,000, while also setting the goal of 25 million new small-business applications during her first term, according to a Harris campaign official granted anonymity to describe details of the plan. The plan also proposes reducing barriers to getting occupational licenses and developing a standard tax deduction for small businesses.

There’s a famous line Andy Card used when discussing the Iraq War in 2002: “From a marketing point of view, you don’t introduce new products in August.”

Whether by necessity or design, Kamala can offer news events like this for the next several weeks. And this one sets up a solid contrast before the debate, in which Trump will be forced to defend tax cuts for billionaires over support for small businesses.

All Trump’s Recidivists

Donald Trump and Stephen “Discount Goebbels” Miller have a plan. As the election draws near, they want to find every instance of an undocumented immigrant who commits a violent crime; that is and will continue to be their routine response when Trump’s misogyny or his own crimes get coverage.

After Berman continued to push Leavitt on whether the posts were demeaning to women, she named girls and women who were killed by illegal immigrants to show the real harm caused by the Biden administration’s open-border policies.

“I think what’s demeaning to women is the fact that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are allowing an invasion of illegal criminals into our country, many of whom have proven to be rapists and murderers. I think what’s demeaning to women like Laken Riley and Jocelyn Nungara and Rachel Morin is the fact that they are no longer with us because of the policies of this administration, and that is what voters and your viewers care about, John,” Leavitt responded.

This ploy closely parallels (and may herald) the way a transnational network of far right provocateurs blame migrants for violence — first in Dublin and then in the UK — as a way to stoke riots, a point I made to LOLGOP in our latest bonus video for the Ball of Threads Patron subscribers.

But there’s a way to rebut Trump’s focus on undocumented immigrants who commit crime: The growing number of Trump clemency recipients who’ve already committed other crimes.

There have been two stories in recent weeks about recipients of clemency from Trump who have already gone on to commit further crimes.

Two weeks ago, Maggie and Mike got the old Trump obstruction team back together to write, again, about Jonathan Braun.

In their second story on Braun, they described how Braun used ties to the Kushners to get his sentence commuted, which disrupted prosecutors’ efforts to get him to cooperate against others.

In working to secure his release, Mr. Braun’s family used a connection to Charles Kushner, the father of Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and senior White House adviser, to try to get the matter before Mr. Trump. Jared Kushner’s White House office drafted the language used in the news release to announce commutations for Mr. Braun and others.

[snip]

The commutation dealt a substantial blow to an ambitious criminal investigation being led by the Justice Department’s U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan aimed at punishing members of the predatory lending industry who hurt small businesses. Mr. Braun and prosecutors were in negotiations over a cooperation deal in which he would be let out of prison in exchange for flipping on industry insiders and potentially even wearing a wire. But the commutation instantly destroyed the government’s leverage on Mr. Braun.

Since his release, Braun has faced other legal trouble, including for his predatory lending. Then, last month, he was arrested (and released on his own recognizance) on allegations of beating his father-in-law and wife.

On Tuesday, the police on Long Island arrested Mr. Braun after he allegedly punched his 75-year-old father-in-law in the head. Mr. Braun struck his father-in-law twice as he tried to protect his daughter from Mr. Braun, who was chasing after her while the couple had an argument in their home, according to the Nassau County District Attorney’s office.

Mr. Braun’s wife, according to court documents, told police that Mr. Braun had assaulted her twice in the past five weeks. On July 17, the court documents said, Mr. Braun threw his wife off a bed onto the floor, “causing her substantial pain and bruising her legs.”

Last week, on Aug. 12, Mr. Braun threw her to the floor and punched her in the head multiple times “causing her substantial pain, bruising” to her arms, legs and head and causing her to feel dizzy, the documents said.

Today, Judd Legum wrote of another instance of a guy released thanks to key ties to Trump: Jaime Davidson, who was sentenced to life without parole in 1993 for the murder of a cop tied to a drug buy.

Davidson was convicted of the murder of Wallie Howard Jr., who was working undercover as a federal agent. Howard was shot in the back of the head in a Syracuse, New York, grocery store parking lot in 1990. According to authorities, Davidson was a drug kingpin in New York and recruited three men to rob Howard of $42,000 that Howard planned to use to buy four pounds of cocaine.

Robert Lawrence, a teenager at the time, testified at trial that Davidson handed him a .357 revolver hours before he shot Howard. Although Davidson was not present when Howard was killed, prosecutors successfully argued that Howard’s death was a reasonably foreseeable consequence of the robbery planned by Davidson.

On July 2, 1993, Davidson was sentenced to life in prison without parole.

Davidson got a commutation because his attorney is married to an attorney with close ties to Trump Organization, Alan Futerfas (who, among other things, allegedly withheld Russian-related emails from Mueller subpoenas and recently represented one of the guys convicted of insider trading on Truth Social stock).

In the waning days of Trump’s presidency, Davidson eschewed the Office of the Pardon Attorney and sought relief directly from Trump. Davidson’s attorney Betty Schein, had deep connections to the Trump White House. Schein and her husband, Alan Futerfas, represented people associated with the Trump Organization, including Donald Trump Jr.

Like Braun, Davidson was busted — and convicted — for assaulting his wife.

On March 31, 2023, a little more than two years after Davidson was set free by Trump, Davidson was arrested in Orlando, Florida, and charged with battery by strangulation and domestic violence. Davidson was accused of attacking Nayeli Chang, his wife of five months.

Legum cites another Trump recidivist: Eliyahu Weinstein, a fraudster who, DOJ charged, promptly returned to fraud shortly after release.

But he says something a bit surprising: He claims, “Davidson is the first person granted clemency by Trump known to be convicted of another crime.”

That ignores Rand and Ron Paul associate Jesse Benton, who in 2022 was convicted of helping a Russian donate to Trump’s 2016 campaign after having been pardoned for much earlier campaign finance crimes, though he committed the second campaign crime before being pardoned for the first.

DOJ had considered retrying Philip Esformes on medicare fraud charges, but that case ended in a time served plea in February.

Most importantly, Legum ignores a far more obvious example: Steve Bannon, who was pardoned for his Build the Wall fraud the same day that Davidson, Weinstein, and Braun had their sentences commuted, January 19, 2021. As we speak, Bannon is serving his four month sentence for blowing off the January 6 Committee subpoena, a crime committed in October 2021.

While his trial keeps getting delayed, Bannon is currently scheduled to face trial in New York state for the same fraud charges his three co-conspirators were convicted for on December 9. (Bannon was also treated as a co-conspirator in Guo Wengui’s trial, though was never charged himself.)

And Bannon could yet be bested among Trump’s clemency recipients for how quickly he returned to crime.

After all, four days after receiving his December 24 pardon, Roger Stone discussed January 6 with Trump personally, reportedly discussing Trump’s plan to speak.

Several days later, at a dinner onthe evening of December 27th, Stone thanked President Trump. In a post onParler, Stone wrote that he “thanked President Trump in person tonight forpardoning me” and also recommended to the President that he “appoint a special counsel” to stop “those who are attempting to steal the 2020 election through voter fraud.” Stone also wrote that he wanted “to ensurethat Donald Trump continues as our president.”245 Finally, he added: “#StopTheSteal” and “#rogerstonedidnothingwrong.”246 The Select Committee has learned that Stone discussed the January 6th event with the President, likely at this same dinner on December 27th.247 The President told Stone he “was thinking of speaking.”248

And Stone’s speech at a Florida rally on January 3, 2021, was the basis by which Proud Boys Dan Scott and Chris Worrell were convicted of obstruction.

On January 3, 2021, Daniel Scott, Worrell, and other members of their local Proud Boy chapter attended a “Stop the Steal” rally in Naples, Florida. The headline speaker at this event was Roger Stone. Daniel Scott helped Stone up a ladder that Stone used to talk to the crowd. During this speech, Stone asserted that the 2020 presidential election was rigged due to voting fraud, and urged Florida’s U.S. Senators to vote against the certification of the Electoral College vote. Stone stated: “Rick Scott has a fundamental choice. He will either stand up for the constitution…” At that point, Daniel Scott yelled “Or give him the rope!” At another point in the rally, Daniel Scott chanted “Stop the Steal!” into a megaphone, along with the crowd at the rally.

It may have taken no more than ten days for Trump’s pardon recipients to start criming again. That’s unsurprising: For the people close to Trump (including Bernie Kerik, who played a key role in Rudy Giuliani’s cultivation of the Big Lie), he often pardoned them so that they could put their skills to work for him.

Trump wants to fearmonger about the very small percentage of migrants who turn to crime.

But there’s a far higher percentage of people whom Trump plucked from prisons (or spared from prison entirely) who turned back to crime.

Which is not surprising. These are Trump’s people, after all.

The Soft Bigotry of No Expectations on Trump

WaPo has an editorial out, purporting to compare the policy platforms of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Its punchline is that Kamala can lift up politics by going deep on policy, something it admits Trump has not done.

Ms. Harris says she wants to elevate American politics, an imperative that Mr. Trump has again shown little interest in. She therefore has an opportunity to lift up her campaign by going deep on substance.

This comparison lists five policies from Trump, seven from the Vice President, plus the common no taxes on tips:

Trump

  1. Building the border wall
  2. Conducting mass deportations
  3. Raising tariffs
  4. Ending the green energy transition
  5. Challenging traditional alliances while going easy on rivals such as Russian President Vladimir Putin

Common

  • Waiving taxes on tips

Harris

  1. Capping insulin costs
  2. Continuing Biden’s climate plan
  3. Boosting housing supply
  4. Enhancing effective anti-poverty programs such as the child tax credit and the earned-income tax credit
  5. [Protecting] Justice Department independence
  6. Seeking robust protections for reproductive rights
  7. Strengthening U.S. alliances such as NATO

WaPo ignores some obvious policies from Trump, such as his tax cuts for billionaires (though that is alluded to in its observation that Trump would add $5.8 trillion to the nation debt, as compared to $1.2 trillion for Kamala), or his determination to eliminate protections for civil service workers and use DOJ for what he calls revenge but which is in reality forced loyalty. Plus, they count “deport millions” as a stated policy goal of Trump, without noting that he has never provided, never even been asked to provide, details about how he would pay for it, how he’d make up for shortfalls in things like Social Security, how he’d ensure food gets picked and houses get built.

This editorial, on its face, shows that Harris has provided more detail on policy than Trump has.

Yet even though WaPo can identify more policy proposals from Kamala than Trump, it nevertheless holds her accountable for providing more.

Aside from certain specifics — such as building the border wall, conducting mass deportations and raising tariffs — Mr. Trump has never detailed much of an agenda. (His supporters at Project 2025 have prepared a pointedly conservative plan for his second term, though Mr. Trump distanced himself from it after it became a political liability.) As for Ms. Harris, the charitable view is that she has had little time to develop detailed proposals. The less generous take is that she wants to avoid revealing many specifics, lest she alienate one constituency or another. Coasting on “vibes” has worked well for her so far; she has taken a slim lead in national polling, and surveys suggest she has become competitive in all the battleground states.

But the novelty of Ms. Harris’s campaign is wearing thin as an excuse for releasing only the schematics of a platform. She promises “a new way forward,” pitching herself as a change agent, even though she is the sitting vice president and takes credit for the elements of the Biden agenda with which she wants to be associated, such as a cap on seniors’ insulin costs and the administration’s climate plan.

Trump has been running for 21 months; his campaign is more than 90% over. The Vice President has been running 43 days; her campaign still has almost 60% to go.

And yet they’re putting demands on the woman in the race, making no such demand on the white male former President.

The press has gone 21 months without throwing this kind of tantrum with Donald Trump. Given that, this column says more about the failures of journalists to hold Trump accountable than it does any shortcoming on Kamala’s part.

At some point, the traditional media needs to explain why it is so much more rabid about getting policy from Kamala than Trump.

Journalists need to come to grips, publicly, with why they apply this soft bigotry of no expectations to Donald Trump. Is it because they know he’ll deny them access if they make similar demands on him? Is it a (justifiable) fear he’ll sic a violent supporter on them, as he did the other night in Johnstown, with Trump observing, “beautiful, that’s beautiful, that’s alright, that’s okay, no, he’s on our side. We get a little itchy, David, don’t we? No, no, he’s on our side,” as the man was tased? Is it a resignation to the fact that Trump will just lie anyway?

Whatever the explanation for why the press applies so much lower expectations on the former President, who has been running for 21 months, than it does on Kamala Harris, just over a month into her campaign, the explanation is a far, far more important story to tell voters than precisely how the Vice President plans to restore the Child Tax Credit.

The only thing this comparison has done is make visible WaPo’s — and the press corp’s, generally — soft bigotry with Donald Trump, the double standard they are applying in their expectations for Kamala Harris as compared to none for Trump.

The lesson of this editorial, contrary to WaPo’s preferred punchline, is that the press is misdirecting where their attention should be focused.

Update: Tweaked to reflect that Trump is a white male former President, not a former white male.

Update: After a bajillion views of this post, I finally found and fixed the “no tips on taxes” you were all trying to get me to fix. All this time I was looking in the bullet list!

There Are No Backsies on Dobbs

Since the day after the debate in June, I have conceived of the shift from a Joe Biden to a Kamala Harris campaign in three ways: The Vice President would more vigorously explain the wildly successful policies of the Biden-Harris Administration. She might (and indeed, has started to) chip away at the Double Hater logjam that has embodied presidential elections since 2016. And she would speak about choice far better than Biden ever could.

At the time, I maintained that Gretchen Whitmer was the only Democrat nationally who speaks better to choice than Harris does. In assuming the presidential ticket, Kamala’s team has made abortion something far more. They have made reproductive rights a cornerstone of a revamped democracy agenda.

That has happened in a curious way. Dobbs only happened because the Supreme Court has become a supercharged, wildly undemocratic wing of right wing policy. The fight to get abortion referenda on state ballots has repeatedly, perhaps most notably in Ohio, had to first defeat anti-democratic efforts to disempower referenda generally. In Wisconsin, voters first had to put Janet Protasiewicz on the Supreme Court before they could turn to protecting reproductive choice, but organizing to do that has laid the groundwork for renewed Democratic vitality. To restore reproductive rights, in state after state, democracy must be renewed.

But all that’s in the background. Kamala’s team has succeeded in making abortion something more: the most obvious item on a laundry list of the ways the far right has tried to take rights (and books) away, a fight for Freedom, one that has enthused millions of younger voters, especially women of child-bearing age.

And so, as I thought it might, Kamala’s focus on choice is one of the things that has remade the race.

It didn’t take rocket science to offer that prediction (though surprisingly few pundits did so, and most people pushing for a Thunderdome primary, who were overwhelmingly men, missed it). Democrats have successfully run on choice since Dobbs;  it has played a central role in Democratic campaigns even in places like Andy Beshear’s Kentucky. Yet Kamala’s clarion voice on the issue largely got ignored as people plotted for ways to bypass the first woman Vice President to replace Biden.

Thus far in this campaign, a focus on abortion has also provided a way to make visible the patriarchy presumed in most threads of the right wing coalition backing Trump, especially but by no means exclusively Christian nationalism. Lest voters ever forget, Kamala’s campaign keeps rolling out one after another video in which JD Vance demands women get back to the role his Church dictates for them: breeding children.

A number of things — the successful convention, a surge in registration among those women of child-bearing age, polls showing that abortion is the most important issue for a larger number of voters — have led horserace journalists to finally cop on.

Or perhaps they’re just noting Trump’s response to Kamala’s focus on choice. I think choice (and the way it harms Trump with women voters) is one reason Trump’s team made Tulsi Gabbard a more formal surrogate; in their appearance together in LaCrosse, billed a Town Hall, Tulsi told the story of her own attempt to conceive using IVF, effectively adopting Tim Walz’ story and focus. Certainly, it’s the reason why, over the course of one day, Trump said wildly contradictory things about choice.

Yesterday, both NYT and WaPo had stories describing the background to that. Trump whisperers Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, who in July first seeded the false narrative that a GOP platform that enshrines fetal personhood reflects a “softened” stance on abortion, treat it as primarily a matter of messaging.

Back in 2022, the former president had told allies — as the Supreme Court was preparing to overturn Roe v. Wade — that the move would hurt his party. Since that year, when Republicans underperformed expectations in the midterm elections, Mr. Trump has been privately emphatic with advisers that in his view the abortion issue alone could kill their chances of victory in November. And he is willing to make as many rhetorical and policy contortions as he deems necessary to win.

It is through that narrow political lens that Mr. Trump has been weighing the subject, despite his role in reshaping the Supreme Court that overturned the landmark 1973 abortion decision.

The results have been confusing and fluid, a contradictory mess of policy statements as he has once again tried to rebrand himself on an issue that many of his supporters view in strict moral terms, and had come to believe that he did, too.

[snip]

Still, even by Mr. Trump’s standards, the past few weeks have been head-spinning for people trying to keep track of his slippery social conservatism.

Twice divorced serial philanderer Donald Trump doesn’t have social conservatism. He has a politically expedient con. Trump has convinced Christian nationalists he was anti-choice in public while attempting to limit the political damage of anti-choice policies behind the scenes. And that con is running headlong into the consequences of the actions he took to sustain the con.

WaPo states this more clearly; this is not about messaging (though WaPo cites Republicans mocking how bad Trump’s messaging on it is). It’s about Trump’s record. Trump had wanted to run on other policies, immigration and Trump’s distorted claims about the economy, but now he’s having to answer for his anti-choice policies.

Many Republicans are hoping that other topics, like the economy and the border, will take precedence for voters, and they cite polls showing broader voter interest in those issues than in abortion.

Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement that women voters will compare the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations, and that under Trump, “the economy was better, groceries and gas cost less, our neighborhoods were safer, and young women like Laken Riley were still alive” — a reference to a Georgia student allegedly killed by someone who entered the country illegally in 2022.

But, as noted, in the month since she has entered the race, Kamala has made abortion the primary issue for more voters than immigration is, and it rivals the economy as the most important election issue among women voters.

Swan and Maggie describe how Trump became what they describe as “agitated” after watching the way the DNC made abortion a primary focus.

In private, Mr. Trump was agitated by the speeches at the Democratic National Convention, according to a person close to him, many of which tied him to Project 2025, an effort by people supportive of Mr. Trump to develop policy proposals for him if he wins that include restrictive ideas for reproductive measures. He was especially bothered by Ms. Harris’s assertions that a second Trump term would further imperil abortion rights.

This is more than agitation.

It is flailing.

Panic.

A recognition that he is losing because of actions he took as President, he is losing because of what the payoff he owed to social conservatives who put him in the White House, a far right SCOTUS, did to women. What NYT journalists with another book contract describe as “head-spinning” is not about branding, it’s about panic because Kamala threatens to hold him accountable for his actions.

No matter how many contradictory statements Trump makes about what a second Trump term would do, there’s no escaping what his first term did do. There are no backsies on Dobbs. There are no backsies on Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. There aren’t even any backsies on that platform granting fetuses protection under the 14th Amendment, even if NYT’s Trump whisperers continue to pretend that didn’t happen.

I mean, come on! If not for the three people Trump added to SCOTUS and those, like Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito, paid for by the same far right Christian nationalists that pushed Vance as a candidate, Trump would be sitting in trial for his attack on January 6 as we speak. Trump is only here, in the race, because of those ideologues who were willing to alter the Constitution to serve a far right agenda. Trump has survived thanks to that Court; he is panicking as he considers the possibility it’ll sink him as well.

And even as Kamala already has Trump panicking, it could get worse for Trump and his party.

There’s something about the WaPo version of this story that I can’t get out of my head; it’s actually one of the reasons I went through the trouble of writing this post. Its subhead (presumably not written by the journalists) suggests Trump’s wild gyrations on choice come during the “final stretch” of the campaign. “Heading into the campaign’s final stretch, Republicans careen between their base and swing voters on the powerful issue of reproductive rights.” The temporal observation, that we’re in the last stretch, is undoubtedly true viewed through the lens of the traditional interminable US presidential campaign. Labor Day kicks off the last, most intense period of a campaign, though importantly, the period when low-information voters first start to tune in. Given Trump’s attempt to stave off criminal charges by announcing his run early, in November 2022, it’s far more true of Trump, who is 91% of the way through his run to regain the presidency.

Not so Kamala Harris.

As I calculated Wednesday, Kamala is just starting the second third of her campaign, what we might call her second trimester if it were three times as long. As of today, she has 60% of her campaign, 64 days of 107, left to go.

And so, even as Kamala has already made Trump an equivocating wreck, nine-tenths of the way through his campaign and just in time for low-information voters to witness it, she has only just laid a foundation to build on. Even as the press described Trump’s flopsweat as abortion threatens to ruin his bid, Kamala’s campaign rolled out a bus tour to focus on reproductive rights.

They are, quite literally, taking it to Trump, to Palm Beach, for the kickoff.

Today, Team Harris-Walz is announcing the launch of its “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour with a kickoff event in Donald Trump’s backyard in Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday, September 3. Senator Amy Klobuchar, Harris-Walz campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Republican TV personality Ana Navarro, and reproductive rights storyteller Anya Cook will hold Trump directly accountable for the devastating impacts of overturning Roe v. Wade, including threatening access to IVF.

This fall, the bus will make at least 50 stops in key states, touching blue communities and red ones, with support for reproductive rights transcending party lines. Each stop will emphasize the stark contrast between Vice President Harris and Governor Walz, who will restore the protections of Roe when Congress passes a bill to do so, and Donald Trump and JD Vance, who will enact their dangerous Project 2025 agenda to ban abortion nationwide, restrict access to birth control, create a national anti-abortion coordinator, force states to report on women’s miscarriages and abortions, and jeopardize access to IVF.

This is a bus tour of diverse surrogates, not Harris or Walz themselves. The grand-daughter of César Chávez, Julie Chávez Rodriguez, is the only royalty on this bus. But the bus provides the campaign a low-effort way to build on the foundation established at the DNC, to try to yoke state referenda more closely to partisan races, to try to make races like that of Florida Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (or that of Angela Alsobrooks or Dan Osborn) more competitive. If that works, who knows how close Kamala might make the Florida race itself? Even assuming Kamala won’t beat Trump in his own state, it will serve to reinvigorate a state party that had been struggling, but which also just recently delivered embarrassing defeats to Moms for Liberty, the book-burners who serve as both Ron DeSantis and Trump’s surrogates to reach women.

Thus far, horserace journalists have been absolutely loathe to hold Trump accountable for the bad things that happened when he was President: his failures on COVID as well as jobs lost for reasons other than pandemic, the spike in crime, his corruption of rule of law.

But Kamala has finally made Trump own something, his role in stripping women of their bodily autonomy.

And in response, Trump has started to panic.

Update: This Public Notice piece on the press’ willingness to let Trump flip flop on choice with impunity him on it names several other policies he should not have backsies on either.

There’s no earthly reason to give Trump the benefit of the doubt here. Besides dismantling the Affordable Care Act’s contraceptive mandate, the Trump administration also tried to undermine private insurance coverage for abortions, prohibited clinics from receiving federal funds under Title X if they even referred people elsewhere for abortion services, and slashed grants for teen pregnancy prevention programs. A second Trump administration will be comprehensively terrible for reproductive rights generally, not just abortion, and no amount of uninformed flip-flopping will change that.

Trump Wants to Hide His Attempt to Assassinate Mike Pence from Voters

In 2016, Donald Trump bragged, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”

This election, Trump wants to hide from voters details of how he almost killed his Vice President, Mike Pence, and his claim that doing so was an official act protected by presidential immunity.

That’s the primary thing you need to know about the joint status report presented to Judge Tanya Chutkan in Trump’s January prosecution last night.

Jack Smith doesn’t propose a schedule (thereby avoiding any claim he’s trying to push pre-election developments), but he’s ready to get this process started right away. He does want Judge Chutkan to make determinations regarding immunity first and foremost. He cites Chutkan’s own order and SCOTUS’ remand order to justify that.

The Court has indicated that it intends to conduct its determinations related to immunity first and foremost. See, e.g., ECF No. 197 (Order denying without prejudice the defendant’s motion to dismiss the previous indictment on statutory grounds and specifying that he “may file a renewed motion once all issues of immunity have been resolved”). The Government agrees with this approach, both because the Supreme Court directed such a process on remand, see Trump v. United States, 144 S. Ct. 2312, 2340 (2024), and because the Supreme Court has “repeatedly . . . stressed the importance of resolving immunity questions at the earliest possible stage in litigation,” Hunter v. Bryant, 502 U.S. 224, 227 (1991) (internal citations omitted).

Trump, by contrast, wants to stall any consideration of immunity until December 13 by first litigating a challenge to Jack Smith’s appointment that Aileen Cannon approved but which conflicts with several binding precedents in the DC Circuit (and which Trump pointedly didn’t try before Chutkan last fall, when he submitted all his other motions to dismiss).

Trump-appointed Judge Mark Scarsi rejected Hunter Biden’s similar attempt to challenge David Weiss’ Special Counsel appointment in the wake of Judge Cannon’s ruling as untimely, and there’s good reason to believe that would be the likely outcome here, even before getting to the binding DC Circuit precedent.

You need look no further than Trump’s description of what he wants to challenge in the superseding indictment to understand why Trump wants to delay this fight until December: As I predicted, he wants to have the Mike Pence allegations thrown out.

In addition, while continuing to strongly maintain that many classes of conduct alleged in the Superseding Indictment are immune—including, but not limited to, Tweets and public statements about the federal 2020 Presidential election, communications with state officials about the federal election, and allegations relating to alternate slates of electors—President Trump may file a motion to dismiss focused specifically on the Special Counsel’s improper use of allegations related to Vice President Pence, along with other potential key threshold motions. Namely, in Trump, the Supreme Court held that President Trump is “at least presumptively immune from prosecution for” all alleged efforts “to pressure the Vice President to take particular acts in connection with his role at the certification proceeding.” Trump v. United States, 144 S. Ct. 2312, 2336 (2024). These same allegations are foundational to the Superseding Indictment and each of its four counts. See Doc. 226 at ¶¶ 5, 9(b), 11(c)-(d), 14, 51(b), 55, 67–90, 99–100. If the Court determines, as it should, that the Special Counsel cannot rebut the presumption that these acts are immune, binding law requires that the entire indictment be dismissed because the grand jury considered immunized evidence. Trump, 144 S. Ct. 2312, 2340 (2024) (“Presidents . . . cannot be indicted based on conduct for which they are immune from prosecution.”).

The Special Counsel’s inability to rebut the presumption as to Pence is dispositive to this case. The special counsel will be unable to do so as a matter of law, thus rendering the remainder of the case moot. Trump, 144 S. Ct. 2312, 2337 (2024) (“We therefore remand to the District Court to assess in the first instance, with appropriate input from the parties, whether a prosecution involving Trump’s alleged attempts to influence the Vice President’s oversight of the certification proceeding in his capacity as President of the Senate would pose any dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch.” (emphasis added)).

To be sure, he’s not wrong to challenge the inclusion of the Pence allegations. Nor is he wrong in his view of how central Pence is to this indictment (though he overstates when he claims it would moot all else; the fake electors plot might survive the excision of the Mike Pence allegations).

As I explained, Justice Roberts raised the conversations with Pence specifically. But as I also explained, that is one of the shrewd things Jack Smith did in superseding the indictment: he stripped out all other things that obviously fit under Roberts’ guidelines, leaving only Trump’s efforts to get Pence to throw out the votes of 81 million Biden voters and when Pence refused, Trump’s action — a tweet — that almost got Pence assassinated.

Trump may well succeed in arguing that he can’t be prohibited from asking Pence to overturn the results of the election so the two of them could remain in power because any such prohibition would chill the normal conversations between Presidents and their Vice Presidents. That is simply the absurd logical result of Roberts’ opinion: that a President can order his Vice President to steal an election because any prohibition on doing so would chill the authority of the President.

But if Jack Smith has his way, Trump will have to make that argument — once, probably in a court filing in October — before voters go to the polls in November.

There are a bunch of legal details in this status report. But given the near certainty that if Trump wins, the entire prosecution will go away, the only one that really matters is that, this election, Trump isn’t so sure that he would lose no votes if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue — or if voters learned why and how he almost had his Vice President assassinated in the US Capitol — as he was in 2016.

Trump doesn’t want to tell voters he thinks that as President, he could have Mike Pence shot on the Senate floor — shot as punishment because his Vice President refused an illegal order to steal an election — and be immune from any consequences for doing so.

Michael Shear and Reid Epstein Feign Stupidity about Trump’s Decade-Long Pitch for Authoritarianism

Here’s what the NYT digital front page looks like for me this morning.

It features Kamala Harris’ rather unremarkable interview with CNN (part one, part two, part three) as prominently as CNN itself (other political outlets are more focused on an upcoming Brian Kemp decision on how Georgia’s election will be run, Trump’s attempt to flip-flop on abortion, and yet another attempt from Trump to delay his sentence in his New York case).

Whatever.

After demanding it for a month, I get that some outlets need to claim this interview was more useful than it was.

But the remarkable thing about NYT’s focus on it is they’ve written two stories substantially about the same thing: The NYT’s own month-long campaign to drive Joe Biden from the race.

Yet in adopting that focus, Reid Epstein and Michael Shear ignored the logic that their own outlet adopted for such an unrelenting push to oust Biden, and in the process, covered up the threat Trump poses to democracy.

Of the seven things Epstein took away from the interview, the first was an overstatement of the degree to which Kamala was “hugging” Biden’s legacy versus the degree to which (for example, on fracking) she will make concessions if it achieves an overall policy goal.

Nevertheless, Epstein is right that Harris was better able to explain the success of Biden’s policies, one of two reasons I was pretty sure, from the start, swapping Harris for Biden would be an improvement, justifying the swap.

As it turns out, Ms. Harris is a better salesperson for Mr. Biden’s accomplishments and defender of his record than he ever was. Perhaps that’s little surprise, given the president’s diminished political skills and trouble speaking coherently in recent years.

Having thus maligned Biden, Epstein then claimed that Harris wants to turn the page on both Biden and Trump. He focused on Harris’ depiction of her opponent not by name, but time period — the last decade — and quipped (I’m sure Epstein thinks this is clever!) that Biden has been prominent over the last decade and a half (treating the two years between when Biden reacted strongly to Charlottesville and the time he actually announced as part of his candidacy).

… but wants to turn the page on him as well as Trump.

What Ms. Harris did do was offer herself up as a continuation of Mr. Biden’s leadership even as she distanced herself from him.

Asked by Ms. Bash if she had any regrets about defending Mr. Biden’s fitness for office and ability to serve a second term, Ms. Harris said she did not and praised the president.

Then, in the next breath, she deftly put both him and Mr. Trump in the rearview mirror.

“I am so proud to have served as vice president to Joe Biden,” she said. “I’m so proud to be running with Tim Walz for president of the United States and to bring America what I believe the American people deserve, which is a new way forward, and turn the page on the last decade of what I believe has been contrary to where the spirit of our country really lies.”

Mr. Biden, of course, has been either president, vice president or a leading candidate for president for most of the last 15 years.

Then Epstein returned to it in his commendation for the boring interview, suggesting that Bash didn’t demean Biden as much as Epstein — or rather, “Republican critics” — want.

Republican critics of Ms. Harris may have wished for a harsher grilling — or for more direct questions about how she felt about Mr. Biden’s aptitude and acuity — but Ms. Bash pressed the vice president when necessary.

Shear did something similar.

His entire post focused on how Kamala answered Dana Bash’s question (three minutes into the third part) of whether the Vice President regretted supporting Biden until he dropped out.

Vice President Kamala Harris said on Thursday that she did not regret defending President Biden against claims that he had declined mentally, saying that she believes he has the “intelligence, the commitment and the judgment and disposition” Americans expect from their president.

“No, not at all. Not at all,” the vice president said when asked if she regretted saying Mr. Biden was “extraordinarily strong” in the moments following the disastrous debate in June that led him to abandon his bid for re-election a month later.

Shear did not, as Epstein did, feign confusion about what Harris meant when she adopted that “last decade” moniker. He explained — perhaps for Epstein’s benefit? — that it was a reference to Trump.

Instead, he misrepresented what she was doing with Biden, temporally, claiming that “she talked about Mr. Biden mostly in the past tense[,] with a kind of nostalgia.”

But she talked about Mr. Biden mostly in the past tense — fondly, but with a kind of nostalgia that made it clear that he no longer represents the future of the country that she hopes to be leading in January.

[snip]

“History is going to show,” she said, “not only has Joe Biden led an administration that has achieved those extraordinary successes, but the character of the man is one that he has been in his life and career, including as a president, quite selfless and puts the American people first.”

Her reminiscing about Mr. Biden’s place in history — she said it was “one of the greatest honors of my career” to serve with him — came just after she said she was determined to “turn the page” on a decade of American politics that has not been good for the country.

“Of course, the last three and a half years has been part of your administration,” Ms. Bash reminded the vice president.

Ms. Harris said she was talking about “an era that started about a decade ago,” an apparent reference to the beginning of former President Donald J. Trump’s first campaign for the White House in 2015. She said the era represented a “warped” idea that “the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down.”

That was clearly directed at Mr. Trump, and she suggested that the warped era would continue if he returned to the White House next year. [my emphasis]

Now, in point of fact, both men misrepresented how the Vice President used that “decade” moniker. She actually used it twice. Once, the instance they focused on, in the last third of the interview, which I’ll get to.

But she also used it in response to Bash’s very first question, the dumb “what would you do on Day One” question that TV pundits love.

I think sadly, in the last decade, we have had in the former president someone who has really been pushing an agenda and an environment that is about diminishing the character and strength of who we are as Americans, really, and I think people are ready to turn the page on that. [My emphasis; after this, Bash snapped back, repeating the, “what would you do on Day One” question.]

That is, Harris defined what she meant by “the last decade” in what was probably her fifth sentence in the interview (possibly even fourth — the woman may use longer sentences than me!), after introducing a focus on the middle class and a return to hope. From her very first response, Harris tied the way Trump (whom she never named) has diminished America to some kind of effect it might have on the middle class.

And the questions that followed that one were focused on policy, which Harris always addressed, whether in the present tense or past, in her role as Vice President. “Well first of all, we had to recover, as an economy,” Harris explained why she (and Biden) had not implemented further steps she’d like to take to help the middle class. “That’s good work,” Kamala boasted, after listing a bunch of Biden’s economic accomplishments. “There’s more to do, but that’s good work.”

In fact, Kamala’s answer to the question NYT dedicated much of two columns on, whether she regretted defending President Biden after he bombed the debate, was in the present tense.

Harris: I have served with President Biden for almost four years now and I’ll tell you it’s one of the greatest honors of my career. Truly. He cares so deeply about the American people. He is so smart and loyal to the American people. And I have spent hours and hours with him, be it in the Oval Office or the Situation Room. He has the intelligence, the commitment, and the judgment, and disposition that I think the American people rightly deserve in their President. By contrast, the former President has none of that. And so, one, I am so proud to have served as Vice President to Joe Biden. And two, I am so proud to be running with Tim Walz for President of the United States, and to bring America what I believe the American people deserve, which is a new way forward and turn the page on the last decade of what I believe has been contrary to where the spirit of our country really lies. [my emphasis]

In a question implicitly about how successful she has been thus far, in the race, Kamala defined who Biden is, present tense, and then explicitly contrasted that to Trump. Biden has, present tense, the intelligence, commitment, judgment, and disposition to be President, and Trump has, present tense, none of that. That’s what she used to springboard from her tenure as Vice President into her candidacy with Walz, a way to turn the page on the last decade that has been contrary to the spirit of the country.

Bash, like Epstein, tried to make this a gotcha, which is when Kamala explained for the second time what she was talking about.

Bash: The last decade — of course, the last three and a half years has been part of your Administration.

Harris: I’m talking about an era that started about a decade ago where there is some suggestion — warped, I believe it to be — that, the measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down, instead of where I believe most Americans are, which is to believe that the true measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up. That’s what’s at stake as much as any other detail that we could discuss in this election. [my emphasis]

But then Harris returned to what she said in that very first question: When she says “last decade” as stand-in for the opponent she won’t name, she means that a different vision of leadership is as important as any of the policy questions.

Where things turn to a past tense in which Harris does not presume herself to have participated — the one that Shear quotes to support his claim that “she talked about Mr. Biden mostly in the past tense” — came in response to her telling of how Biden told her he was going to drop out, which led her to think about how history — people in the future — will regard Joe Biden and the decision he was making, placing this past tense as past to some future time when pundits finally get their heads out of their asses.

The VP told the story: she was interrupted while making extra bacon for one of her grand nieces by a call from Joe Biden. Biden told her his decision, and, “I asked him, are you sure. And he said, yes. And that’s how I learned about it.”

The past tense Shear quoted came in response to a follow-up.

Bash had asked, and pressed a second time, whether Biden offered to endorse Harris right away. Harris responded that Biden was very clear he was going to support her (Kamala didn’t actually answer about the endorsement, but then they may have had earlier conversations), but that that wasn’t her first priority.

My first thought was not about me, to be honest with you. My first thought was about him, to be honest.

She then launched on a reflection about what, “I think history is going to show” about Joe Biden’s presidency, describing it as transformative economically, bringing back American alliances. Then she addressed “the character of the man.”

This is a question that goes back to one of two reasons Biden offered in February why he remained in the race: because he was really good at being President. The other (as I reviewed the day after the debate) was that he believed, in February, he had the best shot at beating Trump.

On July 21 — on the day that Biden was still scrambling to make the prisoner exchange with Russia even as NYT pundits were falsely reporting he was totally isolated — Biden was still very good at being President. With the significant exception of Gaza, he may still be. By that point on July 21, though, it had become clear that Harris is better able to beat Trump. As suggested by Epstein’s begrudging admission that when Kamala lays out Biden’s economic accomplishments, they look pretty good, part of that is defending the things the Biden Administration did to recover from the mistakes Trump made.

But part of it is offering a contrast with Trump. Which, because Harris apparently chose not to name her opponent and not to let silly pundits demand a response to Trump’s latest attention-getting provocation, as Bash did with a question about Trump’s presumption to define Harris’ race, the Vice President is referring to as a last decade. She did it in response to the first question, and she did it a second time in response to the question NYT chose to write about twice.

This is actually a pretty subtle way to do this. Obviously, Harris has befuddled two men who imagine themselves experts.

In their confusion about it, though, Epstein and Shear make a similar mistake to the one their colleague Shane Goldmacher did when he described that Kamala was running as a change candidate. They did so, even though Goldmacher himself referred to what Kamala was running against as Trump’s “decade”-long “bulldozing approach” advocating for “urgent upheaval.”

[S]o much of Trump’s lasting influence is about his lasting attack on rule of law. The insistence that this is about incumbency obscures the real threat Trump poses to democracy, whether or not he’s president.

Take this crazy Goldmacher paragraph.

For nearly a decade, Mr. Trump’s bulldozing approach has been premised on the idea that the nation was staring into an abyss and only urgent upheaval could save the country. The question for Ms. Harris is whether she can frame Democrats keeping power in 2024 as a break from that dark and divisive era.

It is true that Trump has been claiming that “only urgent upheaval could save the country.” But that was a fascist trope. It wasn’t true and even if it were, none of the policies Trump pushed would do anything but enrich people like him. Journalism should do more than observe that he made those false claims; it should explain why they’re false.

In the very next sentence, though, Goldmacher asserts that the challenge for Kamala (again adopting the dumb poll-driven assumption that she’ll only win if she is the change candidate) is by offering, “a break from that dark and divisive era.” What “era”? By reference, Goldmacher must mean that the near-decade in which Trump has told fascist lies is the “dark and divisive era” (though Trump’s racist birtherism started long before that). But it’s not an era. It’s a fascist belief, a means of exercising power, a means of dehumanizing your political opponents, one that had huge influence, but one that with the exception of the political violence it fostered, only held sway over a minority of the country (albeit a large one).

All three of these men — Goldmacher with his treatment of Trump’s tropes about America as an era, Epstein with his confusion about Harris’ (second) reference to a decade, and Shear’s invention of past tense usage that doesn’t exist — struggle because they’re viewing this exclusively about policy, even though Harris described that “the true measure of the strength of a leader” is “what’s at stake as much as any other detail that we could discuss in this election.”

As I noted in the earlier post, when people flatten this out into policies and incumbency, they ignore the ongoing threat that Trump poses to democracy and Kamala’s vision of how to defeat it.

Kamala is running on democracy just as much as Biden did in 2020. It just looks different, because she has more successfully wrapped it in a bipartisan flag. Even there, there’s real continuity (don’t forget that one of Biden’s most important speeches about democracy in 2022, one that had a real impact on the election, was at Independence Hall).

Largely enabled by Trump’s ongoing effect — again, especially on Choice — Kamala has just found a way to make democracy matter more personally, more viscerally.

Kamala is not eschewing the incumbency she has Vice President. On the contrary, she is running on a continuation and expansion of Joe Biden’s successful policies (even if journalists are missing that). And she is running, just as Biden did, on defeating both Trump’s electoral bid but also the threat he poses to democracy itself.

This is precisely why the NYT said the stakes on Biden dropping out were so high as it kicked off a relentless campaign to force Biden out: because, first, Donald Trump was a menace, and second, Biden didn’t have what it takes to hold Trump accountable.

Donald Trump has proved himself to be a significant jeopardy to that democracy — an erratic and self-interested figure unworthy of the public trust. He systematically attempted to undermine the integrity of elections. His supporters have described, publicly, a 2025 agenda that would give him the power to carry out the most extreme of his promises and threats. If he is returned to office, he has vowed to be a different kind of president, unrestrained by the checks on power built into the American political system.

[snip]

He struggled to respond to Mr. Trump’s provocations. He struggled to hold Mr. Trump accountable for his lies, his failures and his chilling plans. More than once, he struggled to make it to the end of a sentence.

These self-imagined pros apparently haven’t thought through how this all works. Epstein, at least, is still looking for his pound of flesh, for further humiliation for Joe Biden. The others are ignoring the two tasks: win an election, and reinvigorate an American dream that — because doing so would prove that democracy can deliver for the middle class — proves the value of democracy.

Kamala Harris is, in no way, disavowing Joe Biden. Rather, even as she’s pitching their joint policy success, she’s renewing the effort to package an American exceptionalism that can defeat Trump’s American carnage.

In 2020, Joe Biden, a member of the Silent Generation, offered a defense of democracy as democracy, which was enough for people who remember fascism and actual communism. In an era when many have forgotten that history and lost faith in democracy, GenX Kamala Harris has to do something more: She has to sell democracy, which Trump has been discrediting for a decade, itself.