Bombshell “New[s]:” Jack Smith DID Consult about Timing before Adopting Post-SCOTUS Path

After I wrote this post laying out that Elie Honig was not only wrong about Jack Smith’s immunity briefing, but that it was very likely DOJ had decided not to take certain steps in August because of the election, I thought about sending the post to Jack Goldsmith, because he tends to make claims about Jack Smith violating DOJ guidelines with little understanding of the facts.

Oops. Too late.

Whereas Honig dedicated just one paragraph to asserting that the problem here lay in “new” disclosures,

The immediate takeaway lies in the revelations contained in Smith’s oversize brief. (He asked the judge for, and received, permission to file a brief that was 180 pages long, four times the normal maximum.) We now have damning new details on Trump’s effort to pressure Vice-President Mike Pence to throw the election his way, Trump’s phone use and use of Twitter as the riot unfolded, and his conversations with family members about efforts to contest his electoral loss. The story’s structure is the same as we’ve long known, but the new details lend depth and dimension.

Goldsmith repeated his claim that there were “new” disclosures in Jack Smith’s immunity filing four times, starting in the lead paragraph.

Last week a judge unsealed a 165-page legal brief with damaging new revelations about President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

[snip]

The brief he filed last week sought to show that the election prosecution can continue despite the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. It laid out the government’s case against Mr. Trump with what many media reports described as “bombshell” new details about his wrongdoing. The filing is in clear tension with the Justice Department’s 60-day rule, which the department inspector general has described as a “longstanding department practice of delaying overt investigative steps or disclosures that could impact an election” within 60 days of an election. However, the “rule” is unwritten and, as the inspector general made clear, has an uncertain scope.

[snip]

Perhaps the department thinks the new disclosures are marginal and won’t affect the election, or that the rule does not apply to litigation steps in previously indicted cases, even if they would affect the election.

[snip]

Because it didn’t need to disclose the new details now, and because it was foreseeable that the disclosures would cause approximately half the country to suspect the department’s motives, it is hard to understand any reason to go forward this close to the election other than to influence it — a motive that would clearly violate department policy.

New new new new.

Bombshell!

I’ll note, I was not among the allegedly “many media reports” that declared I had found “‘bombshell’ new details.” Nor was Brandi Buchman, in her new gig at HuffPo. Nor were Politico’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein. While a subhed of the WaPo story on the brief promised “new” details, the story itself describes that we knew most of this before.

Much of the evidence against Trump in the case had already become public, either through previous filings, news reports or an extensive congressional investigation into the events of Jan. 6.

Tellingly, while NYT devoted a section of their four takeaways piece to “new” evidence, they specifically said none of this was “game-changing.”

The prosecutor revealed new evidence.

The brief contained far more detail than the indictment and included many specific allegations that were not previously part of the public record of the events leading up to the attack on the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters on Jan. 6, 2021.

None of the new details were game-changing revelations, but they add further texture to the available history. For example, part of the brief focuses on a social media post that Mr. Trump sent on the afternoon of the attack on the Capitol, telling supporters that Vice President Mike Pence had let them all down.

Mr. Trump was sitting alone in the dining room off the Oval Office at the time. According to the brief, forensic data shows he was using the Twitter app on his phone and watching Fox News. Fox had just interviewed a man who was frustrated that Mr. Pence was not blocking the certification and then reported that a police officer may have been injured and the protesters had breached the Capitol.

Mr. Trump posted to Twitter that Mr. Pence had lacked the “courage” to do what was right. The mob became enraged at the vice president, and the Secret Service took him to a secure location. An aide to Mr. Trump rushed in to alert him to the peril Mr. Pence was in, but Mr. Trump looked at the aide and said only, “So what?” according to the brief. [my emphasis]

And much of this isn’t new.

We learned prosecutors were going to rely on forensic data from an expert notice submitted in December. The original indictment revealed that Trump was alone in his dining room when he sent the Tweet targeting Mike Pence. The superseding indictment added to the existing description in the original indictment that Trump was “watch[ing] events unfold” that his TV was showing “live coverage.” If you couldn’t already guess that meant he was watching Fox News, the January 6 Committee told us that in hearings and their final report. The actual content shown on Fox News at that moment is new to court filings, but it is publicly available. The Tweet itself, of course, has been discussed in detail starting from Trump’s impeachment. The Nick Luna comment, “So what?”, is new, but simply a better sourced version of Cassidy Hutchinson’s far more damning hearsay testimony of Mark Meadows telling Pat Cipollone that Trump thought Pence “deserves it” even as his supporters chanted “hang Mike Pence.”

The CNN piece that Honig linked to substantiate his claim this was new described that the filing provided “fullest picture yet of [Jack Smith’s] 2020 election case,” not that these were bombshells. It described “new” details to include:

Trump’s frayed relationship with former Vice President Mike Pence; FBI evidence of Trump’s phone usage on January 6, 2021, when rioters overtook the US Capitol; and conversations with family members and others where the then-president was fighting his loss to Joe Biden.

Those details of Trump’s phone usage — as I noted above — were actually covered in earlier filings and even the indictments. The one new attribution to a conversation with Trump’s family members — the “fight like hell” claim — is important mostly because it echoed the very public exhortation in the January 6 speech we all saw four years ago. And virtually all the references in the brief about Trump’s frayed relationship with Pence are parallel sourced to Mike Pence’s book, published years ago.

What Goldsmith cites instead of the NYT, where his op-ed was published (which, many people complained, didn’t play up the brief enough), was this ABC story. It promises stuff that is new, but then lists a bunch of stuff we knew already.

Special counsel Jack Smith has outlined new details of former President Donald Trump and his allies’ sweeping and “increasingly desperate” efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, in a blockbuster court filing Wednesday aimed at defending Smith’s prosecution of Trump following the Supreme Court’s July immunity ruling.

Trump intentionally lied to the public, state election officials, and his own vice president in an effort to cling to power after losing the election, while privately describing some of the claims of election fraud as “crazy,” prosecutors alleged in the 165-page filing.

And it doesn’t substantiate its claims that this stuff is new.

For example, the immunity filing explains how prosecutors know that Trump called Sidney Powell “crazy:” after Tucker Carlson ripped her to shreds, Trump let Dan Scavino and P7 — who may be Hope Hicks — listen to a conversation with Powell on speakerphone while he mocked her. That he called her crazy was included in the original indictment’s description of Powell.

One other thing some blow-ins to this story claimed was new — Mike Roman’s instruction to “Make them riot” — was also something already revealed in a December filing.

What Honig and Goldsmith are all worked up about is not new news, but editors who, trying to hype stories about this filing, felt the need to oversell the amount of new news in it.

Their concern arises out of click-bait, not the substance of the immunity filing itself.

And from that, Goldsmith scolds that Smith should have justified filing this brief in response to an order from Judge Chutkan.

[T]he department has not publicly justified its actions in the election prosecution, and its failure to do so in this highest-of-stakes context is a mistake.

Only, even Goldsmith’s claim that the department didn’t justify its actions is not entirely accurate.

Jack Smith hasn’t told us what internal DOJ deliberations were. But he did publicly reveal that before he did anything in the wake of the SCOTUS remand, he spent most of a month “consult[ing] with other Department of Justice components” regarding DOJ “rules, regulations … and policies” about “the most appropriate schedule” moving forward.

The Government continues to assess the new precedent set forth last month in the Supreme Court’s decision in Trump v. United States, 144 S. Ct. 2312 (2024), including through consultation with other Department of Justice components. See 28 C.F.R. § 600.7(a) (“A Special Counsel shall comply with the rules, regulations, procedures, practices and policies of the Department of Justice,” including “consult[ing] with appropriate offices within the Department for guidance with respect to established practices, policies and procedures of the Department . . . .”). Although those consultations are well underway, the Government has not finalized its position on the most appropriate schedule for the parties to brief issues related to the decision.

DOJ is never going to reveal these deliberations (and Jack Goldsmith knows that better than most, given the number of far more important internal deliberations involving Goldsmith himself, dating to two decades ago, that we’ve never been allowed to and won’t ever be allowed to see).

But they did tell us they engaged in them. Jack Smith literally told us that he was spending weeks consulting about how to comply with DOJ policies regarding timing even before he superseded the indictment.

Only that detail — the one that they keep harping about — appears to be news to Honig and Goldsmith.

So chalk this up to yet another instance where the people complaining about what Jack Smith did, instead, only reveal they don’t know what Jack Smith did.

Update: Trump submitted, under seal, another request not to have any evidence released before the election. It cites both Honig and Goldsmith. Neither, of course, address the point Trump claims to be making.

President Trump maintains his objections, see ECF No. 248, based on overt and inappropriate election interference, violations of longstanding DOJ policy, the Office’s previous safety-related representations in this District and the Southern District of Florida, grand jury secrecy, and the influence on potential witnesses and jurors of prejudicial pretrial publicity—which predictably followed from the filing of the redacted “Motion for Immunity Determinations.”2

2 See, e.g., Ellie Honig, Jack Smith’s October Cheap Shot, N.Y. Magazine (Oct. 3, 2024), https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/jack-smith-october-surprise-donald-trump.html; see also Jack Goldsmith, Jack Smith Owes Us an Explanation, N.Y. Times (Oct. 9, 2024), https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/09/opinion/jack-smith-trump-biden.html.

Trump’s deadline to submit objections to Jack Smith’s proposed redactions is today at 5PM ET. Last time, when Trump made no substantive suggestions, Judge Chutkan released the file.

As Russia Overtly Helps Trump Get Elected, Trump Continues to Check in with Vladimir Putin

According to CNN, Bob Woodward’s latest book reveals that Trump has spoken to Vladimir Putin as many as seven times since leaving the Presidency.

In one scene, Woodward recounts a moment at Mar-a-Lago where Trump tells a senior aide to leave the room so “he could have what he said was a private phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

“According to Trump’s aide, there have been multiple phone calls between Trump and Putin, maybe as many as seven in the period since Trump left the White House in 2021,” Woodward writes.

Woodward asked Trump aide Jason Miller whether Trump and Putin had spoken since he left the White House. “Um, ah, not that, ah, not that I’m aware of,” Miller told Woodward.

“I have not heard that they’re talking, so I’d push back on that,” Miller added.

Woodward writes that Biden’s Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines “carefully hedged” when asked about whether there were any post-presidency Trump-Putin calls.

“I would not purport to be aware of all contacts with Putin. I wouldn’t purport to speak to what President Trump may or may not have done,” Haines said, according to Woodward.

According to WaPo’s version of the Woodward story the incident where Trump asked an aide to leave the room happened in early 2024.

This is unsurprising. After all, Trump has repeatedly described speaking to Putin in advance of the Ukraine invasion, including fairly explicitly during the debate with Joe Biden.

When Putin saw that, he said, you know what? I think we’re going to go in and maybe take my – this was his dream. I talked to him about it, his dream. The difference is he never would have invaded Ukraine. Never.

But the confirmation that Trump keeps speaking to Putin is important for several other reasons.

We still don’t know where all the stolen documents are

If Trump was speaking to Putin before the Ukraine investigation and at least as recently as earlier this year, he was speaking to him during the investigation into his stolen documents, during the period when Trump was hiding boxes from his attorney to make sure he could steal documents.

Trump was going back and referring to some of these documents during the period he worked with Putin.

And perhaps most importantly, there were presumably classified documents loaded onto his plane on June 3, 2022 that got flown back to Bedminster, and probably some remained hidden at Mar-a-Lago (the FBI failed to search a room off Trump’s suite).

The FBI has never found the missing classified documents.

Trump was charged with hoarding some of America’s most secret documents in his basement. And during that entire period, he was checking in regularly with the leader of a hostile foreign country, the one who keeps helping him get elected.

Russian staged another operation to help defeat Joe Biden

Last month, Guardian revealed details of an information operation involving George Papadopoulos and Simona Mangiante, one for which she published an interview she did with sanctioned Russian agent Andrii Derkach. Relatedly, they rolled out yet more propaganda about Hunter Biden.

Working alongside contributors for Kremlin state media, the former Donald Trump policy aide George Papadopoulos, his wife, Simona Mangiante, and others have become editorial board members of the website Intelligencer, which is increasingly becoming a source of news for those in the rightwing ecosystem.

The growth of the website, which has not been reported on before, comes at a time when the US is seeking to crack down on Russian influence ahead of the 2024 election. Recently, the justice department charged two members of RT (formerly known as Russia Today) with violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act and money laundering for payments they allegedly made to “recruit unwitting American influencers”. It also placed sanctions on RT’s editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, and nine other employees.

[snip]

Mangiante, his wife, has written several posts for the site about debunked conspiracy theories involving the Bidens and Ukraine. In January, she posted an interview with a former Ukrainian lawmaker, Andrii Derkach, who repeated false claims of bribery about the Biden family in Ukraine. In 2020, the US placed sanctions on Derkach, calling him an active Russian agent; Derkach, who now is running for political office in Russia, previously met with Rudy Giuliani and purported to offer evidence of corruption against the Bidens.

“Intelligencer appears to be one of several [Russia-friendly] operations targeting the upcoming US elections, leveraging a network of far-right figures and disinformation tactics,” Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said.

Mangiante, along with fellow board member Igor Lopatonok, appears to have parlayed this work into a new documentary about the Hunter Biden laptop saga called Hunter’s Laptop: Requiem for Ukraine. According to social media posts, the documentary premiered on 5 September at the Trump International hotel in Chicago. Eliason wrote the script, which was filmed by Lopatonok, who has frequently collaborated with Oliver Stone on prior anti-Ukrainian documentaries and fawning films of dictators.

Since Biden dropped out, I haven’t really dug into this as much as I might. It can wait. But suffice it to say these links are interesting beyond the most obvious ones. I believe that this ongoing effort targeting Hunter Biden is among the reasons Trump was so sad that Joe Biden dropped out: because Russia had already reloaded the ongoing information operation to work against Joe Biden.

But that’s not the only ongoing Russian operation. As part of the RT operation, for example, Russia was allegedly paying money to Lauren Chen, who also had a role at Turning Point America, the group that was supposed to lead Trump’s turnout operation.

In a warning about Russia’s plan to interfere issued in July, ODNI described that Russia was using “influential US voices” to push Russian support for Trump (and according to a new warning today, also for members of Congress who’ll abandon Ukraine).

“We are beginning to see Russia target specific voter demographics, promote divisive narratives and denigrate specific politicians. Moscow seeks to shape electoral outcomes, undermine electoral integrity and amplify domestic divisions,” the ODNI official said.

“To accomplish this, Moscow is using a variety of approaches to bolster its messaging and lend an air of authenticity to its efforts. This includes outsourcing its efforts to commercial firms to hide its hand and laundering narratives through influential U.S. voices,” the official said.

An influential US voice also mentioned in the RT indictment is Tucker Carlson, fresh off his visit to Vladimir Putin.

American media critics have made themselves tools of Russian disinformation

As it happens, just yesterday, the publisher of the Steele dossier that gave Republicans a way to claim the Russian story was something other than it was, Ben Smith, claimed that the Trump-Russia story is nothing more than “an embarrassment.”

The Trump-Russia story is at this point an embarrassment to everyone. Democrats couldn’t prove the most extensive allegations of plotting or that Russian Facebook ads swung the election. Republicans couldn’t deny that Russia was trying to help Trump, or prove their own more conspiratorial claims that the whole thing was a Hillary Clinton-made “Russia hoax.” At some point, American politics mostly moved on.

What the Russian investigation found is that Trump’s coffee boy, his campaign manager, his National Security Adviser, his personal lawyer, and his rat-fucker all lied to cover up the truth of what happened with Russia in 2016.

And yet because Trump successfully pardoned himself out of legal trouble, people like Ben yawn and say it’s over. And Trump’s successful pushback on the Russian story — assisted by the self-imagined savvy of people like Ben — means that no one has investigated the follow-on in 2020 and this year.

Vladimir Putin’s puppet makes house calls

And that has led the mainstream press to give just passing coverage of critical stories about Trump’s negotiations with Russia and its proxies.

Days before Biden dropped out of the race, I included Viktor Orbán’s trip to Mar-a-Lago among the stories getting ignored as everyone chased Joe Biden old stories.

Now, however, Trump no longer hides that he’s willing to let Putin dismember Ukraine. He welcomed Viktor Orbán’s pitch of a plan to do just that — but there has been no readout from Trump’s side of what happened. Orbán, however, has told other EU nations that Trump will moved for “peace” immediately after being elected — a replay of what Flynn lied to cover up in 2017 — largely by withdrawing US support for Ukraine.

In the past, Trump has gone even further than this, suggesting he’ll do nothing as Putin invades NATO states.

Meanwhile, JD Vance is, if anything, even more pro-Russian than Trump, as are some of the Silicon Valley oligarchs who now back Trump’s campaign since the Vance pick.

Trump’s plan of capitulation to Russia will go a long way to ending the Western rules-based order, the greatest wish of Putin and Xi Jinpeng.

And thus far we know just one of the things that Russia seems to be doing to help Trump’s campaign: detaining WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich until Trump gets elected, just as Iran held onto hostages to help Reagan get elected. Avril Haines recently made clear Russia is planning on helping in other ways as well.

That’s how “Russia Russia Russia” has worked. It’s a shameless lie that Mueller found nothing, a lie built off years of propaganda. Indeed, Trump’s willing acceptance — or, in Rudy’s case, outright solicitation — of Russia’s help to get elected has only gotten more brazen. Yet rather than call Don Jr on his “Russia Russia Russia” lie, reporters simply let the pressing question of whether Trump will end the alliance of democracies in a second term go unasked.

Viktor Orbán is an absolutely central player in Republican plans, especially those — like Project 2025 — boosted by the Heritage Foundation. But there has been almost no curiosity about what’s behind that.

Another thing that got largely buried was Paul Manafort’s return to Trump’s campaign, even though since he last worked for Trump, it has been confirmed that his efforts resulted in Russian spies obtaining polling and the campaign’s strategy.

Because Trump has so successfully led journalists to be cowed by his “Russia Russia Russia” bullying, none of this has been a central story.

It needs to become one.

Disaster Disinformation Is This Year’s John Podesta Emails

I’ve already focused on these three paragraphs, but want to return to them. They’re from NYT’s article anticipating how the apparently tied race will roll out in the next 30 (now 28) days.

With polling averages showing all seven battleground states nearly tied, many Democrats believe their biggest advantage may be an extensive ground game operation that their party has spent more than a year building across the country. Mr. Trump’s campaign thinks that recent events — the escalating conflict in the Middle East and deadly hurricanes that have killed more than 200 people across the Southeast — will give them an edge in the final weeks.

[snip]

Their field operation stretches from turning out staunch Democrats to persuading moderate Republicans who supported Mr. Trump in previous races but disapprove of his indictments, impeachments and general conduct since leaving office.

In contrast, Trump aides see recent events as reinforcing their central campaign message that Ms. Harris is unprepared, weak and incapable of restoring the sense of calm that the Biden administration promised when elected four years ago.

The entire article contrasts the extensive Democratic ground game with sketchier GOP infrastructure. Importantly, Republicans do not contest that Democrats are better prepared to turn out their seemingly equal share of voters.

In response, Republicans first claim they’re better positioned on the issues, pointing to immigration and the economy but not abortion.

They believe they are competing in a country that has become more conservative over the past four years — pointing to surveys showing that more voters now identify as Republican — and more likely to side with them on the issues.

As I’ve been tracking, Trump’s one-time lead on the economy has been shrinking. This Cook Political Report podcast provides more nuance, one that explains a great deal of the polling we’re seeing in polls based on different turnout models. Among college-educated people, Harris now does better than Trump by 4% points. Among non-college voters, Trump retains a 10% lead. The trick, though, is that the former are far more likely to turn out than the latter. The differences you’re seeing on this issue may stem from likely voter models.

But that means that GOP certainty that they’re fine because Trump leads on the issue that is most important for the largest number of people — the economy — depends on their ability to turn out low-propensity voters.

Yet they admit they don’t have the GOTV infrastructure in place that Harris has.

Instead, Trumpsters told the NYT (again, Maggie Haberman is on the byline) that their plan to make up for that deficit is Bibi’s war (which works — and it may well work — primarily in MI) and disasters.

On one level, it was an utterly ridiculous claim, though the NYT didn’t blink. It’s a non-sequitur.

On another level, they were telling the truth. They admit they don’t have the ground game necessary to turn out voters who are disproportionately low-turnout voters. But their answer to that is to exploit two devastating hurricanes as a basis to argue, “that Ms. Harris is unprepared, weak and incapable of restoring the sense of calm.”

If NYT were engaged in journalism, they would have noted that even by the time Trump’s people made this claim, the affected GOP governors had already publicly commented on how satisfied they were by the Federal support they were getting.

That is, it is insane for Republicans to assume, as a matter of faith, that disasters will serve a narrative that VP Harris in unprepared. It’s just as likely that some swing voters in North Carolina and Georgia will see in the Biden-Harris Administration a level of responsiveness they wouldn’t otherwise, if they were simply following reporting of an event twelve states away.

But we’ve seen why they said it. Trump and hackish Republicans are treating this in the same way that they treated John Podesta emails and wanted to treat Hunter Biden’s laptop, as an opportunity to distract attention with make believe stories in the weeks before the election. He knew the things he was Tweeting about John Podesta’s emails weren’t true, Microchip testified at Douglass Mackey’s trial, but he didn’t care. He wanted, “To cause as much chaos as possible so that that would bleed over to Hillary Clinton and diminish her chance of winning.” This is precisely what they’re doing by making shit up about the Helene (and soon, the Milton) response.

To be fair, because the stakes are life and death, Republicans are getting a lot more pushback on their lies this time around. There have been a slew of Republican local officials calling on other Republicans to stop. A fact check Glenn Kessler did — noting that while Joe Biden hasn’t diverted FEMA money to immigrant detention, Trump did — has gotten a lot of attention (though Trump’s abysmal record on disaster response generally and hurricane response more specifically, such as when Trump threw paper towels at Puerto Rican hurricane survivors, deserves far more systematic attention).

Indeed, Trump’s choice to make disaster response this year’s distraction effort in the month of October presents an opportunity to hold not just Trump, but especially members of Congress, accountable for their refusal to govern.

But make no mistake what he’s doing. A fair assessment of the disaster response, so far, would in no way help Trump; indeed, it creates a topic on which Trump fails any meaningful comparison of outcomes. But that’s not what Trump’s team meant when they said impending disaster creates an opportunity to attack Harris.

They have learned to succeed in recent years by taking packaged up events — John Podesta’s risotto recipe, Hunter Biden’s dick pics, and now deadly hurricanes — as a hook on which to hang disinformation. Holy hell, Senator John Kennedy was wailing about tampons on Hannity!

They are not making a rational argument. They are using disinformation to create distrust and a sense of unease. That’s what the NYT would have said if they were reporting reality rather than spin.

The Republican party is treating deadly hurricanes like they treated John Podesta’s risotto recipe and Hunter Biden’s dick pics in past elections.

Reporters (including the NYT here) too often treat Trump as if his utterances involve truth claims, rather than efforts to use noise to create chaos. But even now, even as a second deadly hurricane bears down on Trump’s own state, Trump is making it clear he intends to use the disasters as another opportunity to create noise.

Trump Pardoned Unindicted Co-Conspirator Steve Bannon for Defrauding Trump’s Supporters

On December 13, [Chesebro] sent [Rudy] a memorandum that envisioned a scenario in which Pence would use the fraudulent slates as a pretext to claim that there were dueling slates of electors from the targeted states and negotiate a solution to defeat Biden.312 On the same day, the defendant resumed almost daily direct contact with [Bannon,] who maintained a podcast that disseminated the defendant’s false fraud claims.313 On December 14, [Bannon’s] podcast focused on spreading lies about the defendant’s fraudulent electors—including the false claim that their votes were merely a contingency in the event the defendant won legal challenges in the targeted states.314 [my emphasis]

Let me make something explicit to serve as background for a post on what fuckery we might expect in the next month or so.

  1. October 31: “He’s gonna declare himself a winner.” J6C (Originally sourced to MoJo)
  2. November 13: “Trump just fired.”
  3. December 13: Bannon resumes daily contact.
  4. December 14: Alternate electors. J6C
  5. January 2: “The Vice President’s role is not “ministerial.” J6C
  6. January 2: Trump wanted Pence briefed by Eastman immediately.
  7. January 4: Pre-Pence Willard Hotel meeting, from which Rudy calls Trump.
  8. January 4: Post-Pence Willard Hotel meeting.
  9. January 5: “Fuck his lawyer.”
  10. January 5: Call with Trump before “All hell is going to break loose.” J6C

Between the period on October 31, 2020, when Steve Bannon was explaining that Trump would declare victory regardless if he won, and the period, starting on December 13, when Bannon started planning events that would lead to “All Hell [Breaking] Loose” on January 6, alleged co-conspirator Bannon had less contact with Trump for a period, then resumed “almost daily direct contact” with him. In that period, Bannon was trying to figure out how to get out of his prosecution for cheating Trump supporters in the Build the Wall scheme (here’s the RECAP docket).

He was arrested on August 20 on Guo Wengui’s yacht (a yacht allegedly acquired through Guo’s separate conspiracy to cheat his supporters, a fraud in which Bannon was also treated as a co-conspirator). That day, Bill Burck — who had successfully gotten Bannon through slowly evolving testimony the Mueller investigation with no charges — represented him at his arraignment, as he did for an initial appearance via Zoom on August 31. Bannon spent some part of the next two months working with Rudy Giuliani, Robert Costello, and Jack Maxey, fiddling with a hard drive copied from a laptop once associated with Hunter Biden’s iCloud account. Meanwhile, Burck delayed the first status hearing in the case — originally scheduled for October 26 and rescheduled for November 9 — based on his own trial schedule.

On November 3, Donald Trump did declare victory before key swing states were counted.

On November 5, Steve Bannon called to put Anthony Fauci and Chris Wray’s heads on pikes.

STEVE BANNON (HOST): Second term kicks off with firing Wray, firing Fauci.

Now I actually want to go a step farther but I realize the president is a kind-hearted man and a good man. I’d actually like to go back to the old times of Tudor England, I’d put the heads on pikes, right, I’d put them at the two corners of the White House as a warning to federal bureaucrats. You either get with the program or you’re gone — time to stop playing games. blow it all up, put Ric Grenell today as the interim head of the FBI, that’ll light them up, right.

The day after Bannon threatened the FBI Director, on November 6, Burck asked for a second delay of the initial status hearing, because Bannon was in the process of retaining new counsel. “Mr. Bannon and Quinn Emanuel have mutually and amicably agreed that alternative counsel would be better suited to his defense strategy,” Burck explained later that month when he requested permission to drop off the case.

On November 7, Pennsylvania declared Joe Biden the victor of the state. There would be no second term in which Bannon could impale the FBI Director — at least not one in 2021.

It actually took longer for Bannon to arrange replacement counsel than Burck represented.

On December 11, Robert Costello entered his appearance as Bannon’s new lawyer. At the time, Costello was best known for the allegations from the Mueller Report seeming to offer assurances from “friends in high places” that Michael Cohen would be pardoned if he covered for Trump. But Costello’s role, as a participant as much as counsel, in the Hunter Biden laptop caper would seemingly expand the timeline of his relationship with Bannon.

Two days after Costello entered his appearance for Bannon, according to Jack Smith’s immunity filing, Bannon and Trump resumed near-daily conversations leading up to January 6.

Bannon’s actual pardon would make short work for Costello. On January 19, 2021 — less than two weeks after “All hell [broke] loose” with Bannon as an alleged co-conspirator — Trump pardoned Bannon for cheating Trump’s own supporters. But Trump made it clear with his selectivity that the pardon had nothing to do with a perceived injustice: Trump pardoned none of Bannon’s co-conspirators. His three co-conspirators remain in prison at least through next year.

Trump pardoned Bannon for cheating Trump’s own supporters. He cared more about meeting Bannon’s needs than protecting those who believe in Trump.

When tangential We Build the Wall associates Dustin Stockton and Jennfier Lawrence explained why they provided (unreliable) testimony to the January 6 Committee, they implied it arose, in part, from frustration that Bannon had gotten pardoned but they had not.

Stockton and Lawrence say they subsequently worked with Kremer to plan a rally in Washington on Nov. 14, 2020. That event featured a drive-by from Trump in the presidential motorcade. That night, there were clashes between Trump supporters and counterprotesters. Turnout among the pro-Trump contingent was high enough that Kremer was inspired to launch a nationwide “March for Trump” bus tour with Stockton and Lawrence.

They were also, they say, encouraged by a suggestion that participating in the protests challenging Trump’s election loss could win them Trump’s help with the fallout from the We Build the Wall debacle. In December 2020, as the tour rolled around the country, Stockton and Lawrence say they got a call from Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and his chief of staff, Thomas Van Flein. According to Stockton, Van Flein claimed he and the congressman had just met with Trump, who was considering giving them a “blanket pardon” to address the “We Build the Wall” investigation.

“We were just in the Oval Office speaking about pardons and your names came up,” Van Flein allegedly said. Van Flein did not respond to a request for comment.

Gosar suggested the bus tour was helping Stockton and Lawrence build support for a pardon from the caucus and Trump. “Keep up the good work,” Gosar said, according to Stockton. “Everybody’s seen what you’re doing.”

While Stockton says Gosar previously supported the wall project and would likely have “moved to get the pardon regardless of what was happening post-election,” the call made clear to him that the protests against the 2020 vote could help get Trump on their side. “Trump was taking interest because of the notoriety of what we were currently doing,” Stockton says.

In the end, Bannon’s short-term resolution of his criminal exposure may not have helped much,

Like his co-conspirators, he’s in prison as we speak, for contemptuously blowing off the January 6 Committee. He’ll be in Danbury prison for several more weeks. Six weeks after that, he faces state trial on the same charges of which his co-conspirators have already been found guilty.

I raise all this for two reasons.

First, John Roberts says none of this matters. The evidence that Donald Trump was using pardons as leverage to associates to help attack democracy doesn’t matter. He doesn’t want to hear any evidence of such official conduct, even if used as part of a quid pro quo.

And more obviously, as Bannon faces his state trial and gets named as an unindicted co-conspirator in Trump’s effort to “break loose all hell” on January 6, he’s in the same position he was four years ago: facing down legal consequences for his past criminal attacks on truth and rule of law.

Trump pardoned Bannon, and only Bannon, for defrauding his own supporters four years ago.

All Hell Is Going to Break Loose: Maybe Jack Smith Did Precisely What Elie Honig Claims He Didn’t

There are a number of laugh-in-his-face funny things about Elie Honig’s column bitching that Jack Smith submitted his immunity filing before the election. First, for years Honig whined and moaned that the January 6 investigation would never reach the Willard Hotel, which was, in the opinion he formed without examining much of the evidence, the only way it would reach Trump.

Well, now the court filings have incorporated the Willard, yet Honig seems not to have noticed (but then, he has never exhibited much awareness of what’s actually in court filings).

More importantly, I strongly suspect that this filing does reflect the impact of DOJ policy prohibiting major actions in the three months leading up to an election.

That is, I suspect that Jack Smith considered making more substantive tweaks to the superseding indictment against Trump, but did not because of the DOJ prohibition. This is, to be clear, speculation. But the speculation rests, in part, on what we see in the court filings.

Start with this detail: When Jack Smith asked for a three week extension to submit a status report on August 8 — three weeks that he predictably used to supersede the indictment — he didn’t say he needed the time to present the case to a new grand jury. Rather, he said he needed the time to consult with other parts of DOJ.

The Government continues to assess the new precedent set forth last month in the Supreme Court’s decision in Trump v. United States, 144 S. Ct. 2312 (2024), including through consultation with other Department of Justice components. See 28 C.F.R. § 600.7(a) (“A Special Counsel shall comply with the rules, regulations, procedures, practices and policies of the Department of Justice,” including “consult[ing] with appropriate offices within the Department for guidance with respect to established practices, policies and procedures of the Department . . . .”). Although those consultations are well underway, the Government has not finalized its position on the most appropriate schedule for the parties to brief issues related to the decision.

And while I think it likely that Smith did consult with OLC, the Solicitor General, and the prosecutors at DC USAO who are superseding other accused January 6 criminals charged with 18 USC 1512(c)(2) about the content of his indictment, that’s not even what he said he was consulting about.

He said he was consulting about “the most appropriate schedule” to brief certain issues regarding the decision. He said he was consulting about DOJ rules, regulations, and policies.

The one DOJ policy pertaining to timing is precisely the one Honig is so upset about: the one prohibiting criminal charges or statements that might give an advantage or disadvantage to a particular candidate.

9-85.500 Actions that May Have an Impact on an Election

Federal prosecutors and agents may never select the timing of any action, including investigative steps, criminal charges, or statements, for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party. Such a purpose is inconsistent with the Department’s mission and with the Principles of Federal Prosecution. See § 9-27.260. Any action likely to raise an issue or the perception of an issue under this provision requires consultation with the Public Integrity Section, and such action shall not be taken if the Public Integrity Section advises that further consultation is required with the Deputy Attorney General or Attorney General.

But as many people rebutted Honig, this pertains to stuff DOJ controls, like indictments, not to things a judge controls, like the briefing Judge Chutkan ordered, briefing about an indictment charged 14 months ago.

Tellingly, Honig didn’t bitch when Jack Smith superseded the indictment against Trump less than 90 days before the election. That’s probably because the indictment involved minor changes, mostly subtractions. Smith eliminated Jeffrey Clark’s conduct entirely, added language to emphasize Mike Pence’s role as Trump’s running-mate, and focused more closely on the fraudulent vote certifications Trump and his co-conspirators created. Honig didn’t opine that that more limited indictment would have required DOJ approval or violated pre-election rules.

The other reason I suspect that Smith considered, but did not, make more substantive changes to the indictment is what appears and doesn’t appear in the immunity filing.

First, as I alluded to the other day, there’s an asymmetry in how DOJ discusses Trump’s January 4 speech in Georgia and his January 6 speech. Regarding the former, prosecutors spend an entire paragraph laying out the fundraising emails Trump sent in advance of the Georgia speech, using those emails to argue that the speech was a campaign event.

Moreover, the defendant’s Campaign sent numerous fundraising emails before, during, and after the speech, confirming the event’s private nature. In a January 4 email around 3:00 p.m., the Campaign sent a fundraising email with the subject line “EPIC Rally in 6 HOURS,” that began, “President Trump is heading to GEORGIA for a RALLY with Senators [Loeffler] and [Perdue]. This rally is going to be EPIC and will show the Nation that REAL Americans, like YOU, are fired up and ready to FIGHT to keep our Republican Senate Majority. The Senate Runoff Election is TOMORROW, and it’s going to take the support of Patriots from all around the Nation if we’re going to WIN BIG and SAVE America from the Radical Left.”570 Later, at 9:21 p.m., the Campaign sent a fundraising email (in the name of the defendant’s son) that began, “My father is on stage RIGHT NOW in Georgia rallying with Senators [Loeffler] and [Perdue] to DEFEND our Senate Republican Majority. Are YOU watching?”571 The email reminded voters that “The Senate Runoff Election is TOMORROW and YOU are the only one who can stop [“‘the Left”] from taking over.”572 Another email at 10:41 p.m. (sent in the name of the defendant) began, “I just stepped off stage after speaking at an EPIC Victory Rally in Georgia with Senators [Loeffler] and [Perdue]. The energy of the American People was UNMATCHED and I know we’re going to WIN BIG tomorrow.”573?

It’s far more important to persuade Judge Chutkan that the January 6 speech was a campaign event. Yet, even though the filing spends three pages describing the “significant similarities” between the Georgia speech and the January 6 one, there’s no parallel argument that Trump fundraised off the January 6 speech. Indeed, there’s no other discussion of fundraising whatsoever in this filing, which is rather surprising given how Trump used his fundraising emails to cement The Big Lie. And we know that there was fundraising directly tied to the January 6 speech. As the January 6 Committee noted, the last email went out just as rioters breached the Capitol. J6C dedicated an appendix to both the legally sanctionable claims Trump made in fundraising emails and to ways Trump used the money raised to pay other bills, things other than what he told his rubes he would spend it on.

The easiest way to hold Trump accountable for January 6 in such a way that doesn’t remotely implicate presidential immunity would be to charge him for fundraising fraud, adopting the same model SDNY used to charge Steve Bannon and his co-conspirators for fundraising off the wall Trump never built. But there’s not a hint of that in the indictment currently before Judge Chutkan. The fact that prosecutors didn’t include the fundraising directly tied to January 6, even though it would help ensure they got to use the January 6 speech at trial, suggests they may be withholding it to use in some other way.

A still more obvious thing missing from the immunity filing is the Proud Boys.

Back in December, in the last filing Jack Smith submitted before Trump’s lawyers got Judge Chutkan to prohibit such things, Smith said he wanted to introduce Trump’s encouragement of the Proud Boys as 404(b) evidence.

The Government plans to introduce evidence from the period in advance of the charged conspiracies that demonstrates the defendant’s encouragement of violence. For instance, in response to a question during the September 29, 2020, presidential debate asking him to denounce the extremist group the Proud Boys, the defendant instead spoke publicly to them and told them to “stand back and stand by.” Members of the group embraced the defendant’s words as an endorsement and printed merchandise with them as a rallying cry. As discussed below, after the Proud Boys and other extremist groups participated in obstructing the congressional certification on January 6, the defendant made clear that they were acting consistent with his intent and direction in doing so.

[snip]

Of particular note are the specific January 6 offenders whom the defendant has supported— namely, individuals convicted of some of the most serious crimes charged in relation to January 6, such as seditious conspiracy and violent assaults on police officers. During a September 17, 2023, appearance on Meet the Press, for instance, the defendant said regarding Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio—who was convicted of seditious conspiracy—“I want to tell you, he and other people have been treated horribly.” The defendant then criticized the kinds of lengthy sentences received only by defendants who, like Tarrio, committed the most serious crimes on January 6. [my emphasis]

But the Proud Boys don’t appear, at all, in the immunity filing. You can go search for them using this OCR version. Nothing. Jack Smith said he wanted them to be part of the trial, but they’re not in this filing laying out that Smith might mention them at trial.

To be sure, there is a section of the immunity filing that addresses Trump’s fondness for convicted Jan6ers.

In the years after January 6, the defendant has reiterated his support for and allegiance to 39478 39479 rioters who broke into the Capitol, calling them “patriots478 and “hostages,479 providing them financial assistance,480 and reminiscing about January 6 as “a beautiful day.”481 At a rally in Waco, Texas, on March 25, 2023, the defendant started a tradition he has repeated several times—opening the event with a song called “Justice for All,” recorded by a group of charged—and in many cases, convicted—January 6 offenders known as the “January 6 Choir” and who, because of their dangerousness, are held at the District of Columbia jail.482 At the Waco Rally, of the January 6 Choir, the defendant said, “our people love those people, they love those people.”483 The defendant has also stated that if re-elected, he will pardon individuals convicted of crimes on January 6.484

But not only doesn’t it mention the Proud Boys directly (one of them was part of the Jan6 Choir, though not any of the seditionists), it doesn’t include the September 2023 interview in which Trump addressed Enrique Tarrio by name (bolded above).

478 GA 1973 at 16:52 (Video of Waco Rally 03/25/2023); GA 1962 at 48:29 (Video of Trump at Faith and Freedom Coalition 06/17/2022); GA 1971 (Video of Trump Interview 02/01/2022).

479 GA 1935 at 35:50, 01:16:16 (Video of Greensboro Rally 03/02/2024).

480 GA 1966 at 09:30 (Video of Trump Interview 09/01/2022).

481 GA 1967 at 45:18 (Video of Trump Interview 08/23/2023); GA 1692 (Transcript of CNN Town Hall 05/10/2023).

482 GA 1973 at 03:00 (Video of Waco Rally 03/25/2023). See, e.g., United States v. Jordan Robert Mink, 21-cr-25 (D.D.C. 2023); United States v. Ronald Sandlin, 21-cr-88 (D.D.C. 2022); United States v. Barton Shively, 21-cr-151 (D.D.C. 2022); United States v. Julian Khater, 21-cr-222 (D.D.C. 2022); United States v. James McGrew, 21-cr-398 (D.D.C. 2022).

483 GA 1973 at 06:02 (Video of Waco Rally 03/25/2023).

484 GA 1971 at 15:51 (Video of Trump Interview with Schmitt 02/01/2022).

If you’re going to impress SCOTUS with Trump’s outrageous support for convicted rioters, you would include the Proud Boys.

Unless you were holding them in reserve.

The immunity filing does include the other key focus of that December 404(b) filing, though: Mike Roman’s elicitation of a riot at TCF Center in Detroit.

In the immediate post-election period, while the defendant claimed fraud without proof, his private operatives sought to create chaos, rather than seek clarity, at polling places where states were continuing to tabulate votes. For example, on November 4, [Mike Roman]—a Campaign employee, agent, and co-conspirator of the defendant—tried to sow confusion when the ongoing vote count at the TCF Center in Detroit, Michigan, looked unfavorable for the defendant. There, when a colleague at the TCF Center told “We think [a batch of votes heavily in Biden’s favor is] right,”[Roman] responded, “find a reason it isnt,” “give me options to file litigation,” and “even if itbis [sic].”18 When the colleague suggested that there was about to be unrest reminiscent of the Brooks Brothers Riot,19 a violent effort to stop the vote count in Florida after the 2000 presidential election, responded, “Make them riot” and “Do it!!!”20 The defendant’s Campaign operatives and supporters used similar tactics at other tabulation centers, including in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania,21 and the defendant sometimes used the resulting confrontations to falsely claim that his election observers were being denied proper access, thus serving as a predicate to the defendant’s claim that fraud must have occurred in the observers’ absence.22 [my emphasis]

Notably, that section of the immunity filing repeats something the 404(b) notice did: it called Roman — like Bannon — an unindicted co-conspirator, even though in the introduction of the immunity filing, it described him as an “agent” along with the other three main campaign operatives.

The Government also plans to introduce evidence of an effort undertaken by an agent (and unindicted co-conspirator) of the defendant who worked for his campaign (“the Campaign Employee”) to, immediately following the election, obstruct the vote count. On November 4, 2020, the Campaign Employee exchanged a series of text messages with an attorney supporting the Campaign’s election day operations at the TCF Center in Detroit, where votes were being counted; in the messages, the Campaign Employee encouraged rioting and other methods of obstruction when he learned that the vote count was trending in favor of the defendant’s opponent.

[seven lines redacted]

The Government will also show that around the time of these messages, an election official at the TCF Center observed that as Biden began to take the lead, a large number of untrained individuals flooded the TCF Center and began making illegitimate and aggressive challenges to the vote count. Thereafter, Trump made repeated false claims regarding election activities at the TCF Center, when in truth his agent was seeking to cause a riot to disrupt the count. This evidence is admissible to demonstrate that the defendant, his co-conspirators, and agents had knowledge that the defendant had lost the election, as well as their intent and motive to obstruct and overturn the legitimate results. [my emphasis]

As it did with Steve Bannon, the immunity filing called Roman a co-conspirator, without giving him a substitution, CC.

They’re both just “persons.”

At least in substitutions used in this filing.

Here’s why that’s especially interesting. As I noted in this post, the only evidentiary reason to describe Bannon as a co-conspirator is to introduce his words via hearsay exception, without requiring him to testify.

Some of what he said (bolded below), he said on texts to Boris Epshteyn, who was already treated as a co-conspirator, so those texts could come in anyway.

  1. October 31: “He’s gonna declare himself a winner.” J6C (Originally sourced to MoJo)
  2. November 13: “Trump just fired.”
  3. December 13: Bannon resumes daily contact.
  4. December 14: Alternate electors. J6C
  5. January 2: “The Vice President’s role is not “ministerial.” J6C
  6. January 2: Trump wanted Pence briefed by Eastman immediately.
  7. January 4: Pre-Pence Willard Hotel meeting, from which Rudy calls Trump.
  8. January 4: Post-Pence Willard Hotel meeting.
  9. January 5: “Fuck his lawyer.”
  10. January 5: Call with Trump before “All hell is going to break loose.” J6C

Others don’t involve Epshteyn (or are important for the way Bannon conveys recent contact with Trump).

One mention of Bannon in the immunity filing is his Halloween prediction that Trump would claim victory. According to Dan Friedman, who first reported on the recording, Bannon’s October 31 prediction that Trump would declare victory was a recording of a meeting he had with Guo Wengwui’s activists.

The pre-election audio comes from a meeting between Bannon and a half dozen supporters of Guo Wengui, an exiled Chinese mogul for whom Bannon has worked. Bannon helped Guo launch a series of pro-Trump Chinese-language news websites that have promoted an array of far-right misinformation, including a video streaming site called GTV. The meeting was intended to help GTV plan its election night coverage.

Though he did not attend, Guo arranged the confab, which was held in the Washington, DC, townhouse where Bannon tapes War Room, according to a person who was present.

Jack Smith chose to use this instance of Bannon’s prediction, which ties to the foreign funding of Bannon’s disinformation, rather than (as Bannon himself noted to Friedman in a comment for that story) any of the other times Bannon made the same prediction, including on his podcast.

[A] Bannon spokesperson argued that Bannon’s statements on the recording are not news. “Nothing on the recording wasn’t already said on War Room or on multiple other shows like The Circus on Showtime,” the spokesperson said. “Bannon gave that lecture multiple times from August to November to counter Mar[c] Elias’ Election Integrity Project.” Elias is a prominent Democratic election lawyer. The spokesperson also said that the January 6 committee “should have the courage to have Mr. Bannon come and testify publicly about these events.”

So one thing Smith does by including Bannon as a co-conspirator is to tie Guo’s funding of Bannon’s disinformation to January 6. Remember: SDNY treated Bannon as a co-conspirator at Guo’s trial (though did not treat it as a foreign influence operation).

But the more important instance where you’d need to treat Bannon as a co-conspirator to introduce his words is Bannon’s later prediction: “All hell is going to break loose.” The immunity filing directly ties the comment to an 11-minute phone call Bannon had with Trump, from 8:57 to 9:08 AM, earlier that morning.

The next morning, on January 5, the defendant spoke on the phone with [Bannon]. Less than two hours later, on his podcast, said in anticipation of the January 6 certification proceeding, “All Hell is going to break loose tomorrow.”376

That is, the immunity filing treats this prediction like three other things it includes on Bannon: his prediction Trump would declare victory, Bannon’s notice to Epshteyn that Trump would soon put Rudy in charge of post-election interference, and his January 2 instruction — given immediately after speaking to Trump — that Trump wanted John Eastman to brief Pence. All four use Bannon like a mirror to get to things (the filing implies) Trump told Bannon.

The immunity filing suggests that Bannon spoke to Trump, agreed that “all hell is going to break loose tomorrow,” and then shared that detail on his podcast.

Notably, though, like Roman’s elicitation of a riot, that’s not necessary to the charges in the existing indictment. Bannon’s involvement in the fake electors plot is — or is at least useful. Bannon’s conveyance of instructions from Trump, particularly on January 2, is a way to show Trump’s intent regarding the effort to pressure Pence.

But you don’t need violence to prove these charges. Indeed, both the indictment and the immunity filing stop well short of implicating Trump with inciting violence. They describe Trump and his co-conspirators attempting to “exploit” the violence already in progress to cause further delay, but they don’t accuse Trump of anticipating or encouraging that violence.

Steve Bannon and Mike Roman absolutely help prove the conspiracy counts currently charged against Trump; Roman’s communications, in particular, provide key details of how he recruited fake electors.

Where they become far more important as co-conspirators, though, both with the TCF unrest and the violence at the Capitol, is in arguing that Trump conspired to stoke violence, something that Jack Smith has not (yet, at least not publicly) charged, something that would also implicate the missing Proud Boys.

These inclusions and exclusions all suggest that Jack Smith could have approached the superseding indictment differently, but did not.

Again, this is speculation, but I suspect that Jack Smith reserved a number of things for use after the election.

If we get that far.

Tie Game: WaPo’s Polls and Maggie’s Misinformation

According to the calendar, there is exactly a month left to the 2024 campaign.

According to math, Donald Trump has less than 5% of his campaign left (31 of 721 days).

Kamala Harris has 28% of her campaign left (31 of 107 days).

The timing is a point raised in this NBC story, which describes that, after having taken the last 76 days to introduce the Vice President to voters, the campaign now plans to ratchet up negative advertising about how unfit Trump is to be President.

Leaning more heavily into negative campaigning is a strategic shift for Harris. While she has routinely been critical of Trump since becoming a candidate in July, and before that as President Joe Biden’s running mate, much of her campaign’s focus has been on defining her and explaining her record to voters.

Harris campaign officials said they intend to continue laying out her policy positions, background and plans if she were to win the presidency — and increasing negative messaging is oftentimes a natural evolution in a presidential campaign as the candidates make their closing arguments.

But emphasizing what Harris campaign officials view as Trump’s major vulnerabilities is seen as possibly one of the only ways to finally win over some voters who haven’t made up their mind in a static race that Democrats want to push in their direction.

[snip]

Harris campaign officials noted that, with less than four months as a candidate, she had to compress what typically would have been a longer introduction of herself before moving more negative messaging to help persuade and turn out voters.

Trump has been running almost entirely negative advertising about Harris for months. She can now, finally, just 76 days into her campaign, start focusing more on how unfit he is.

That’s one of the realities of running a 107 day campaign against a guy who has campaigned for the decade after his reality TV career started to go south. The two candidates are, and have always been, running at different paces.

CNN has a pretty good wrap-up of what’s coming in the next month, broken down into the following sections:

  • Where they’re spending money
  • Turnout
  • Campaign surrogates
  • Improving economy
  • Impact of Hurricane Helene on voting
  • International developments
  • Trump’s attempts to cheat again
  • How to register

WaPo and NYT, however, are having a harder time contemplating what comes next.

WaPo’s story asks whether all the money Harris is spending will make a difference. It has six paragraphs (including the first and last) plus a nifty graphic that focus on polling showing Harris’ monetary advantage has not yet made a difference. It has seven paragraphs, plus another nifty graphic, on advertising, though doesn’t mention the strategic shift that NBC reports.

Yet it takes 22 paragraphs (of around 35) before WaPo gets around to the thing that may make the difference in a race that polls show is a statistically tied race: Turnout.

On this score, Harris’s aides believe Trump has a higher hill to climb, as the political realignment of the last decade has allowed Democrats to make inroads among more habitual voters. That is one of the reasons Democrats believe they outperformed expectations in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections.

“Trump specifically has an electorate that requires a big campaign in some ways. Part of that is because a lot of the people they need to get are sporadic voters,” said a senior Harris strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal data. “They are definitionally harder to reach.”

Trump’s aides, for their part, argue that Harris is the one with the turnout problem.

“They better hope they have a ground game, because they’ve got hundreds of thousands of voters in every single swing state who haven’t cast a vote since the 2020 election in any election and they’re not getting a mail ballot this time,” Blair said.

The Harris campaign claimed in late September to have 330 offices and more than 2,400 staff. They completed 25,000 weekend volunteer shifts on the final weekend of last month, contacting over 1 million voters over three days and completed the 100,000th event of the campaign. Blair said the Trump campaign has more than 300 “Trump Force 47” offices for hundreds of paid staffers. The Trump campaign also claims to have 30,000 highly trained volunteer captains, in addition to other volunteers.

It takes several more paragraphs for WaPo to describe Republicans in three states expressing some concern about field, a central point of Tim Alberta’s profile of the campaign before Biden dropped out, which Hugo Lowell has been describing for weeks, and which Josh Marshal has turned to more recently.

What he has seen from the campaign, he said, is signing up some volunteers to recruit others. “I still think Trump has a slight edge here, so I don’t know if there’s a great deal of concern, but I think it is really close,” Hall said. He said the resource disparity on spending, and the ground game concerns, still give him some pause about the outcome.

There are also concerns in Michigan, three prominent Republicans said, at a lack of volunteers and organization from the Trump campaign. In Arizona, GOP Chairwoman Gina Swoboda has raised concerns privately, but she said in a statement she is now confident.

No one knows how this will turn out. But if the polls really are close to neck-and-neck (something very much in question, for a number of reasons) what will determine the election will be who gets a larger share of their seemingly same number of supporters to the polls. It’s not the polls that matter, it’s the field operation, because voting matters, not polling.

NYT’s version of the same story at least gets that part of the equation correct.

With polling averages showing all seven battleground states nearly tied, many Democrats believe their biggest advantage may be an extensive ground game operation that their party has spent more than a year building across the country.

But it parrots Trump’s claim (Maggie is on the byline) that Bibi Netanyahu’s belligerence and the aftermath of Hurricane Helene will win the race for him.

Mr. Trump’s campaign thinks that recent events — the escalating conflict in the Middle East and deadly hurricanes that have killed more than 200 people across the Southeast — will give them an edge in the final weeks.

[snip]

In contrast, Trump aides see recent events as reinforcing their central campaign message that Ms. Harris is unprepared, weak and incapable of restoring the sense of calm that the Biden administration promised when elected four years ago.

Again, Maggie is on the byline. Perhaps that’s why NYT doesn’t bother to ask — or even point out — that GOP governors throughout the affected region have had high praise for the response of the Biden-Harris team. How would a very competent, bipartisan response to a catastrophe that affected two key swing states hurt Harris, a journalist might ask?

The answer is that Trump and his flunkies have shamelessly used the disaster to spread disinformation, so much so that local conservative officials are begging national right wingers to stop making things more difficult, something CNN (among other outlets, including local ones) has covered. This should be a comment about Trump’s plan to use disinformation; it’s not.

Perhaps relatedly, in the third paragraph of this story, NYT explains why Hillary’s superior financial and turnout advantages in 2016 didn’t result in victory … without mentioning that NYT (as well as a bunch of other outlets) did the work of Russian spies by spending the last month of the campaign talking about John Podesta’s risotto recipe.

In some ways, the two approaches mirror the final days of the 2016 race, when Hillary Clinton’s campaign boasted about a massive, data-driven field organization while Mr. Trump pressed a national message based on stoking anti-immigrant sentiment and improving the economy with a relatively meager staff and almost no field operation in the key states. Mr. Trump, of course, prevailed, helped by the F.B.I. director’s reopening of an inquiry into the Democratic nominee’s emails.

It’s one thing to pretend, as Joe Kahn is, that NYT is not publishing the documents Iran stole because they’re less newsworthy than Hillary’s discussions, years before 2016 but years after 2008, of how she might run in 2016. It’s another thing to simply ignore how useful NYT was to Russian spies in 2016, to pretend that didn’t also weigh down Hillary’s campaign as she tried to defeat ongoing hacks and a flood of disinformation about stolen private emails.

Meanwhile, yet another story bylined by Reid Epstein that insists views on the economy will be determinative doesn’t mention that Trump’s lead on the issue is narrowing, and in at least one poll, has disappeared.

Republicans acknowledge they are being outspent on television and out-organized on the ground in the key states — yet they say Mr. Trump’s strength on the economy and immigration may be enough for him to overcome those structural deficits.

Surveys indicate that Republicans still hold an advantage on economic issues, even as inflation slows, gas prices drop and the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates for the first time in four years. Public opinion on immigration has also swung to the right during the Biden administration, with more Americans saying they support tougher enforcement measures to crack down on illegal immigration.

If it’s true, Reid, that whoever polls better on this wins, shouldn’t you start reporting that polling on this is narrowing?

NYT gets that field may matter. Then it serves as a vehicle for or espouses garbage claims.

Kamala Harris still has 28% of her campaign left to get voters to the polls; even as he’s falling behind on field, Trump has a fraction of that. Which may be why he’s selling the con that that a disaster relief effort that puts all of Trump’s to shame would reflect badly on Harris.

Again, there’s a lot of good reporting linked in this post. Check out CNN. Read the pieces on Republicans fighting back against Republican disinformation. Read Marshall’s assessment of whether Trump’s odd approach to field might work. Or consider the implication of the NBC piece: For some very important reasons dictated by the brevity of her campaign, Harris had to hold off on certain things that you might have seen earlier in a different campaign.

How Jack Smith Wants to Prove Trump’s Crimes

It goes too far to say, as some commentators have, that Jack Smith’s immunity filing is his trial brief.

If this thing were ever to go to trial, such a document would focus more on the elements of the offense that Judge Chutkan would have jurors assess, which I laid out here. While there’s extensive discussion of the Electoral Count Act, particularly regarding the intentional exclusion of the President from it, there’s less discussion of how Trump’s lies impaired its function, the crime charged under 18 USC 371. While there’s a discussion of the intent behind the fake electors plot, there’s less discussion of how those fake certificates served to impair the function of counting the real certificates (a point Trump made in his post-Fischer supplement to his motion to dismiss the indictment on statutory grounds), something that would be key to proving the two 18 USC 1512 charges. There’s little discussion of the victims — 81 million Joe Biden voters — whose rights Donald Trump allegedly attempted to violate in the 18 USC 241 charge.

Jack Smith is not exactly telling us how he’d prove his case. Rather, he’s asking for permission to use certain kinds of evidence to do so.

There’s no telling how SCOTUS will respond to this (I’m particularly interested in the tactical decision to call the Brooks Brothers Riot, “a violent effort to stop the vote count in Florida after the 2000 presidential election,” in a filing that aims to persuade John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.) Prosecutors have raised the cost for Roberts et al, by laying out that their immunity argument basically argues that it is the job of the President of the United States to send mean Tweets eliciting violent threats against members of his own party.

Now that Trump got permission to submit a sur-reply, his team is likely to frame this entire argument anew, as they wanted to do from the start. Given what they’ve said, I would assume their 180-page brief will focus extensively on the chilling effect it would have to hold a former President accountable for almost getting his Vice President killed. Once they prove that, Trump’s lawyers have argued, the entire indictment must be scrapped, because grand jurors were exposed to immunized behavior.

On that point: It seems that the brief relies on immunized conduct that was not shared with the grand jury. This appears most obvious in the footnote where the government says that part of a conversation Mike Pence had with Trump on December 19 is official conduct, but they don’t plan to share it with jurors. A more interesting instance, however, is the reliance on Pat Cipollone’s testimony that, after he showed up to the January 4 meeting at which John Eastman attempted to persuade Pence to throw out legal votes, Trump “explicitly excluded him from” the meeting. Under SCOTUS’ guidelines, that conversation presumably shouldn’t have been presented to grand jurors, but it is powerful evidence that the January 4 meeting was not official business.

The most notable new evidence in the filing is another example. Minutes after Trump sent the Tweet targeting Pence during the riot, the brief describes, Person 15 (Nick Luna), rushed into Trump’s dining room to tell him that Pence had been taken to safety, only for Trump to respond, “So what?” Prosecutors are only using that evidence, they explain, to contextualize the Tweet Trump had just sent, to make it clear it was a private Tweet. “The defendant further revealed the private nature of his desperate conduct as a candidate, rather than a President, in an exchange (that the Government does not plan to use at trial) he had with aide P15 shortly after the 2:24 p.m. Tweet.” Luna probably alerted Trump imagining he might take official action to protect his Vice President, so this would be an official act. Jurors will never hear that testimony, but we get to, as do John Roberts and his colleagues.

Mike Pence

Caveating that I expect Trump to throw the kitchen sink at the Pence issue, I think Smith does fairly well rebutting the presumption of immunity in Trump’s communications with Pence. That analysis relies heavily on the deliberate exclusion of the President from tallying the vote, supporting a conclusion that “it is difficult to imagine an occasion when a President would have any valid reason to try to influence” the certification of the vote (meaning relying on Trump’s discussions with Pence wouldn’t chill valid Presidential communications). It also relies heavily on Blassingame’s holding — one not explicitly adopted in SCOTUS’ immunity ruling — that a candidate for re-election is not entitled to presidential immunity. So, the filing argues, any discussions that Trump and Pence had about their re-election bid (the filing lists nine here) are not official.

[T]he Government intends to introduce evidence of private phone calls or in-person meetings (which occasionally included Campaign staff) that the defendant had with Pence in their unofficial capacities, as running mates in the post-election period.

[snip]

Pence “tried to encourage” the defendant “as a friend,” when news networks projected Biden as the winner of the election; on other occasions, softly suggested the defendant “recognize [the] process is over” even if he was unwilling to concede; and encouraged the defendant to consider running for election again in 2024. Although the defendant and Pence naturally may have touched upon arguably official responsibilities that were tangential to their election prospects—for instance, whether the federal government should begin its logistical transition to prepare for a different Administration°°’—the overall context and content of the conversations demonstrate that they were primarily frank exchanges between two candidates on a shared ticket, and the Government does not intend to elicit testimony about any peripheral discussion of arguably official responsibilities.

Another thing prosecutors did is engage in a system of parallel citation, often citing what must be interview or grand jury transcripts along with passages from Pence’s book.

The brief doesn’t ever mention footnote 3, in which Chief Justice John Roberts, in an attempt to dismiss Justice Barrett’s concerns that excluding officially immune evidence would make it impossible to prosecute the bribery specifically mentioned in the Constitution, said that of course prosecutors could rely on “the public record.” (See Anna Bowers’ good piece on the footnote here.)

3 JUSTICE BARRETT disagrees, arguing that in a bribery prosecution, for instance, excluding “any mention” of the official act associated with the bribe “would hamstring the prosecution.” Post, at 6 (opinion concurring in part); cf. post, at 25–27 (opinion of SOTOMAYOR, J.). But of course the prosecutor may point to the public record to show the fact that the President performed the official act. And the prosecutor may admit evidence of what the President allegedly demanded, received, accepted, or agreed to receive or accept in return for being influenced in the performance of the act. See 18 U. S. C. §201(b)(2). What the prosecutor may not do, however, is admit testimony or private records of the President or his advisers probing the official act itself. Allowing that sort of evidence would invite the jury to inspect the President’s motivations for his official actions and to second-guess their propriety. As we have explained, such inspection would be “highly intrusive” and would “ ‘seriously cripple’ ” the President’s exercise of his official duties. Fitzgerald, 457 U. S., at 745, 756 (quoting Spalding v. Vilas, 161 U. S. 483, 498 (1896)); see supra, at 18. And such second-guessing would “threaten the independence or effectiveness of the Executive.” Trump v. Vance, 591 U. S. 786, 805 (2020)

For much of the Pence testimony on which prosecutors want to rely, that parallel system of citation makes clear, there is a public record, and was — even excerpted in the WSJ — months before prosecutors interviewed Pence. Again, prosecutors aren’t making the argument that that should change the calculus. But ultimately, this is an instance where one key victim of Trump’s alleged crimes went public even before prosecutors asked for his testimony.

I actually think where Jack Smith’s bid may fail is with three others: Eric Herschmann (Person 9), Dan Scavino (Person 45), and Stephen Miller (who — best as I can tell — is not mentioned).

Eric Herschmann

If possible, Smith’s prosecutors rely even more heavily on Eric Herschmann’s testimony than the January 6 Committee did. The immunity brief uses his testimony to prove that Trump knew his claims of election fraud were false. It uses Herschmann’s prediction that Trump would never have to pay Rudy for his election interference because Rudy would never be able to prove his claims. It relies on Herschmann’s testimony (and that of another White House staffer) to describe how Trump mocked Sidney Powell even while relying on her false claims. It relies on Herschmann’s testimony about Trump possibly signing a false declaration in a Georgia lawsuit. And it relies on Herschmann to introduce the evidence presented by paid vendors that there was no evidence of substantive election fraud.

The filing includes two long sections (one, two) explaining why Herschmann’s testimony shouldn’t be considered official actions. Herschmann’s relationship with Trump was familial, arising from his childhood friendship with Jared. His portfolio at the White House was undefined. Prosecutors get around the possibility that Herschmann’s testimony might be official by describing his role as a “conduit for information from the Campaign,” providing “near-daily” updates on the campaign. If this argument fails, then a great deal of prosecutors’ best evidence would disappear.

Dan Scavino

Dan Scavino’s testimony is just as critical. Prosecutors want to use Scavino to introduce Trump’s Twitter addiction and to validate that some Tweets — including the one targeting Pence — were sent by Trump.

P45 served as Assistant to the President and White House Deputy Chief of Staff.694 He also volunteered his time for Campaign work, including traveling to political rallies with the defendant and posting pictures and videos.695 The Government will elicit from P45 at trial that he was the only person other than the defendant with the ability to post to the defendant’s Twitter account, that he sent tweets only at the defendant’s express direction, and that P45 did not send certain specific Tweets, including one at 2:24 p.m. on January 6, 2021.696 He also will generally describe the defendant’s Twitter knowledge and habits, including that the defendant was “very active on his Twitter account,” “paid attention to how his tweets played with his followers,” “was very engaged in watching the news,” and “knew how to read the replies and see all the replies of what people were saying and doing which . . . led to where he would retweet things,” and that any Tweet sent “between 5 or 6 a.m. until 9 or 10 a.m.” and after “9 or 10 p.m.” generally was the defendant personally sending out the Tweet, as opposed to P45 having do it. None of this proposed testimony on P45’s part constitutes evidence of an official act. General information about access to the defendant’s Twitter account, as well as P45’s testimony that P45 did or did not issue a particular Tweet, is unrelated to any particular official act by the defendant.

They also want to use Scavino, along with Herschmann and Nick Luna, to testify that Trump was sitting alone in his dining room obsessing about Fox News coverage on January 6.

The filing treats actions by the White House Deputy Chief of Staff as unofficial, in part, by noting that Scavino “volunteered” for the campaign while working as Deputy Chief of Staff and that “he did not differentiate between his official and his Campaign duties and when he would send Tweets on the account for Campaign purposes.” Like Herschmann, Scavino got White House Counsel advice about how to play both a White House and a campaign role. The filing tries to finagle this by distinguishing between Trump’s @POTUS and his @RealDonaldTrump Twitter accounts.

But ultimately, Scavino would be one of the most hostile witnesses at trial, or in any kind of evidentiary hearing (along with Jason Miller). Prosecutors are resting a whole bunch on what even they admit is a vague border between campaign and official Tweeting.

Stephen Miller

Then there’s Stephen Miller, Trump’s Discount Goebbels.

As far as I know, Miller is not mentioned in this brief at all.

That poses a bit of a potential weak point in prosecutors’ effort to rely on Trump’s January 6 speech treated as a campaign speech (which they otherwise do by matching it to a clear campaign speech given in Georgia two days earlier, focusing on who paid for the rally, noting that Secret Service did not consider it an official event, and observing that Trump walked in and out to Lee Greenwood and YMCA rather than Hail to the Chief).

That’s because — as the January 6 Committee Report describes — Miller was intimately involved in adding attacks on Pence back into the speech after the Vice President refused Trump’s demands a final time.

Instead, between 9:52 a.m. and 10:18 a.m., the President spoke with hisspeechwriter, Stephen Miller, about the words he would deliver at the SaveAmerica Rally just hours later.30 The former President’s speech had come together over the course of 36 hours, going from a screed aimed at encouraging congressional objections to one that would ultimately incite mob violence.31

Only four minutes after the call concluded, at 10:22 a.m., Miller emailedrevisions to the speechwriters, instructing them to “[s]tart inputting thesechanges asap” that included “red highlights marking POTUS edits.”32 ThePresident had made some cosmetic additions, like peppering in the word“corrupt” throughout,33 but there was one substantive edit—a new target—that would focus the crowd’s anger on one man.

None of the preceding drafts mentioned Vice President Pence whatsoever. But now, at the very last minute, President Trump slipped in the following sentences calling the Vice President out by name:

Today, we will see whether Republicans stand strong for the integrity of our elections. And we will see whether Mike Pence enters history as a truly great and courageous leader. All he has to do is refer the illegally-submitted electoral votes back to the states that were given false and fraudulent information where they want to recertify. With only 3 of the 7 states in question we win and become President and have the power of the veto.34

[snip]

As recounted in Chapter 5, President Trump called Vice President Penceat 11:17 a.m.39 The call between the two men—during which the President soon grew “frustrat[ed] or heated,”40 visibly upset,41 and “angry”42—lasted nearly 20 minutes.43 And President Trump insulted Vice President Pence when he refused to obstruct or delay the joint session.

After that call, General Keith Kellogg said that the people in the roomimmediately went back to editing the Ellipse speech.44 At 11:30 a.m., Miller emailed his assistant, Robert Gabriel, with no text in the body but the subject line: “insert—stand by for phone call.”45 At 11:33 a.m., Gabriel emailed the speechwriting team: “REINSERT THE MIKE PENCE LINES. Confirmreceipt.”46 One minute later, speechwriter Ross Worthington confirmed that he had reached Vincent Haley by phone.47 Haley corroborated that he added one “tough sentence about the Vice President” while he was at the teleprompter.48

The final written draft had the following Pence reference: “And we will see whether Mike Pence enters history as a truly great and courageous leader.”49 Haley wasn’t confident that line was what he reinserted, but email traffic and teleprompter drafts produced by the National Archives andRecords Administration (NARA) indicate that he was mistaken.50

Here’s how that process appears in the immunity brief:

At 11:15 am., shortly before traveling to the Ellipse to speak to his supporters, the defendant called Pence and made one last attempt to induce him to act unlawfully in the upcoming session.410 When Pence again refused, and told the defendant that he intended to make a statement to Congress before the certification proceeding confirming that he lacked the authority to do what the defendant wanted, the defendant was incensed.411 He decided to re-insert into his Campaign speech at the Ellipse remarks targeting Pence for his refusal to misuse his role in the certification.412

Admittedly, in the section that specifically argues for the speech’s treatment as a campaign speech, the filing describes that most staffers were using their personal emails to edit the speech (the brief uses this distinction elsewhere, including to admit communications from Mark Meadows). But not the final revisions.

Likewise, the defendant’s White House speechwriting staff understood that the speech was a political, unofficial one and used their personal devices and personal email accounts to do most of the drafting and fact-checking for the defendant’s Ellipse speech, though some last revisions to the speech on the morning of January 6 occurred over White House email.585 And officials in the White House Counsel’s Office who customarily reviewed the defendant’s official remarks pointedly did not review the Ellipse speech because it was an unofficial Campaign speech.586

This may not doom prosecutors’ efforts to admit the speech. There are so many other reasons why it is clearly a campaign speech (though of course, SCOTUS has not adopted Blassingame, so they may not even find that dispositive).

But Stephen Miller is right there in the middle of the speech revisions, ready to claim he did so as an official White House employee.

Mind you, if Trump tried to make that argument, prosecutors might revert to the same thing they did to rely on the Tweet Peter Navarro sent, lying about vote fraud, which Trump then used to pitch January 6. Navarro was a Hatch Act recidivist — Trump’s entire White House was — so you can’t use the fact that Navarro had a White House job to rule that his Tweet was an official act.

In tum, that Tweet linked to a document drafted by P69. P69 that had nothing to do with P69’s official duties as a White House trade advisor, but rather constituted unofficial political activity by a Campaign volunteer who the Office of Special Counsel already had determined to have violated the Hatch Act on numerous occasions by attacking the defendant’s opponent during the lead up to the 2020 presidential election.633 For the reasons described supra pp. 118-126 that make clear that the Ellipse rally was a private event, and the defendant’s remarks there unofficial, his Tweets as a candidate promoting the event were unofficial.

Now’s a good time to reveal that Navarro got a second extension on his deadline to file for cert at SCOTUS, partly because Magistrate Michael Harvey has not yet finished reviewing the emails he sent via ProtonMail for Presidential Records is not yet done. Or, to put it differently, Jack Smith likely still doesn’t have all the emails via which Navarro participated in this coup attempt.

If SCOTUS had any shame, this nitty gritty — the notion that Trump’s mean Tweets against fellow Republicans might be protected under a claim of presidential immunity — would soon become embarrassing.

But then I remember that the three Justices who would be most amenable to such an argument might well grow defensive after being reminded that they were present at the start of all this, the effort to shut down vote counts via lawfare accompanied by the threat of violence.

Update: Lawfare has posted their version of this post. They also point to footnote 3 in the context of Mike Pence’s book.

Update: Note that the December 14 podcast cited in the immunity brief laid out in this post was an interview about the fake elector plot with Stephen Miller. It’s another area where Miller is in the thick of things.

The Immunity Brief: How We Got Here, Where We’re Going

I want to take a step back and put the immunity briefing released yesterday in context.

On July 1, after SCOTUS released its immunity opinion on the last possible day, it remanded the case back to Judge Tanya Chutkan to assess what was immune under the newly rewritten Constitution.

As soon as she got the case back, Judge Chutkan ordered a status report for August 9 and a status hearing for August 16. But then on August 8, Jack Smith said, sorry, can we have more time? I correctly predicted then that Smith was superseding the indictment, which Smith did do on August 27 (for reasons I won’t yet explain, this filing makes me think we may see more charges after the election).

In a September 5 status hearing, prosecutors successfully persuaded Judge Chutkan to let them deal with the remand by first submitting a brief explaining how the new indictment complies with SCOTUS’ rewritten Constitution. During the hearing, Chutkan reiterated something she has said from the start: she’s not going to let the election stall this prosecution.

I understand there is an election impending, and I’ve said before and I say again that the electoral process and the timing of the election and what needs to happen before or shouldn’t happen before the election is not relevant here.

This Court is not concerned with the electoral schedule. Yes, there’s an election coming. But the sensitive time that you’re talking about, if you’re talking about the timing of legal issues and the timing of evidentiary issues in relation to when the election is, that’s not — that’s nothing I’m going to consider.

Trump’s team ignored that warning, wailing about the election in a filing that was supposed to be about discovery. They wailed again in response to Jack Smith’s request to file a 180-page brief. In her order granting Smith’s request, Chutkan again swatted back at Trump’s election wails.

In response, defense counsel reframed the problem as an “election dispute,” insisting that “it’s incredibly unfair in the sense that they’re able to put in the public record at this very sensitive time in our nation’s history.” Id. at 28–29. But Defendant’s concern with the political consequences of these proceedings does not bear on the pretrial schedule; “what needs to happen before or shouldn’t happen before the election is not relevant here.” Id. at 29.

When the prosecutors asked to file its brief in redacted form (which they had warned it would do, and which they noted complied with the protective order in the case), Judge Chutkan gave Trump a deadline of noon on Tuesday — a clear sign she didn’t want to dawdle over redaction fights. Nevertheless, in their reply, Trump’s lawyers accused Smith of “improper political considerations” again, rather than disputing any particular redaction. By choosing to offer no more than generalized complaints for more redactions (redactions that might have hidden, just as one example, how many times current Trump campaign advisor Jason Miller told Trump he had lost, lost, lost the election in 2020), Trump’s team sunk their chance to delay the redactions. I thought it might be quick, but didn’t expect it to come as soon as last night.

In her opinion ordering the motion to be unsealed, Judge Chutkan expressed increasing impatience with Trump’s claims of politicization. Trump already got his shot at a vindictive prosecution claim, Chutkan noted, which she rejected as soon as she got the case back in August.

In addition to the assertions discussed above, Defendant’s opposition brief repeatedly accuses the Government of bad-faith partisan bias. See Def.’s Opp’n at 2, 5–6. These accusations, for which Defendant provides no support, continue a pattern of defense filings focusing on political rhetoric rather than addressing the legal issues at hand. See Oversized Brief Order at 2–3 (identifying two recent instances of this pattern). Not only is that focus unresponsive and unhelpful to the court, but it is also unbefitting of experienced defense counsel and undermining of the judicial proceedings in this case. Defendant has had an opportunity to make his case that his prosecution is improperly motivated. See Def.’s Mot. to Dismiss for Selective and Vindictive Prosecution, ECF No. 116. Future filings should be directed to the issues before the court.

Best as I can tell, Chutkan issued her order around 3:30PM ET yesterday, and the Smith filing posted around 3:35PM.

At 8PM — so well after they should have read Chutkan’s order — Trump’s team requested permission to file for excess pages as well, the same 180-pages that Smith got. They also asked to get a sur-reply, the kind of request that you normally make after someone raises a new issue in a reply, albeit one she effectively invited at the status hearing last month.

But they also asked for an extension for their response until after the election, until November 21. Not only do they offer almost no excuse for the delay, aside from existing deadlines, one of which is for today and the other of which is for an attack on the Special Counsel appointment that conflicts with DC Circuit precedents. But they misrepresent the timing that has already occurred, suggesting that the time DOJ took to consult with others at DOJ and supersede the indictment was rather time they took to write the immunity brief.

[T]he Court granted the Special Counsel’s request for an additional three weeks to complete its drafting, setting a September 26, 2024, deadline.

[snip]

This resembles the 3-week extension the Court previously provided the Special Counsel, Aug. 9, 2024, Minute Order, which allowed the Special Counsel to work on its initial brief before the September status conference. In total, the requested extension would provide President Trump 8 weeks to file his Response, which approximates the 6 weeks the Court granted the Special Counsel (including a 3-week extension before the status conference, and an additional 3 weeks thereafter to finalize its brief and exhibits).

Trump’s lawyers offer no justification for the extension, at all, that arises from their own time constraints (for example, the Jewish high holy days, which have a habit of messing with many a criminal docket, or their other caseload). They simply want more time because, they falsely claim, Jack Smith got more time.

Jack Smith wrote a 180-page filing in three weeks.

And Judge Chutkan already knows that Trump’s team can work quickly. At the status hearing on September 5, when John Lauro similarly tried to stall, Thomas Windom pointed out that in July, Trump’s attorneys wrote a 52-page attack on the New York State hush payment case in nine days.

I want to point out just as a data point for your Honor, on July 10th of this year, the Defendant, in his New York State criminal case, the Defendant and two of the attorneys sitting at this table filed a 52-page motion to vacate his state criminal conviction on the grounds of a Supreme Court opinion that came out nine days before. Fifty-two pages covering an entire trial record in nine days.

The defense can move comprehensively, quickly and well. So can we. And the Court should consider that in setting its schedule. The final piece, your Honor —

THE COURT: Congratulations, Mr. Blanche.

That’s in the court record now: At a pace of 52 pages in nine days, Trump’s team should be able to file their 180 pages in a month.

But a month is longer than their current deadline, which is three weeks. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Chutkan did give them some relief. Even if she gives them one week, it’d bump right up against election day, which is transparently the point.

It is likely that Trump will not have to explain himself until after voters have already weighed in.

Back on August 31, I noted that Trump really didn’t want to have to justify almost getting Mike Pence killed on January 6.

In 2016, Donald Trump bragged, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”

This election, Trump wants to hide from voters details of how he almost killed his Vice President, Mike Pence, and his claim that doing so was an official act protected by presidential immunity.

That’s the primary thing you need to know about the joint status report presented to Judge Tanya Chutkan in Trump’s January prosecution last night.

[snip]

There are a bunch of legal details in this status report. But given the near certainty that if Trump wins, the entire prosecution will go away, the only one that really matters is that, this election, Trump isn’t so sure that he would lose no votes if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue — or if voters learned why and how he almost had his Vice President assassinated in the US Capitol — as he was in 2016.

Trump doesn’t want to tell voters he thinks that as President, he could have Mike Pence shot on the Senate floor — shot as punishment because his Vice President refused an illegal order to steal an election — and be immune from any consequences for doing so.

But there must be more than that. After all, the allegation is out there, along with the new revelation that after Trump sent the tweet targeting Pence at 2:24PM, someone (probably Nick Luna) rushed into Trump’s dining room and told him Pence had been moved to a secure location. “So what?” Trump said as his Vice President was hearing chants of “hang Mike Pence” from Trump’s rioters.

Trump wants to boot this past not just the election, but also the aftermath.

Perhaps Trump just wants to leave open the possibility of never responding. If he wins, Judge Chutkan would have very few tools to enforce her deadlines, even in the two months before Trump was inaugurated.

Or perhaps Trump doesn’t want to address a coup strategy that he plans to reuse?

Update: I mean, how familiar does all this feel, citing how Trump laid the groundwork for his coup attempt?

  • In an interview on July 19, 2020, when asked repeatedly if he would accept the results of the election, the defendant said he would “have to see” and “it depends.”5
  • On July 30, despite having voted by mail himself earlier that year, the defendant suggested that widespread mail-in voting provided cause for delaying the election, tweeting, “With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???”6
  • In an interview on August 2, the defendant claimed, without any basis, that “[t]here is no way you can go through a mail-in vote without massive cheating.”7
  • At a campaign event in Wisconsin on August 17, the defendant told his supporters, “[t]he only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged, remember that. It’s the only way we’re going to lose this election, so we have to be very careful.”8
  • In his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on August 24, the defendant said that “[t]he only way they can take this election away from us is if this is a rigged election.”9
  • On October 27, during remarks regarding his campaign, the defendant said, “[i]t would be very, very proper and very nice if a winner were declared on November 3rd, instead of counting ballots for two weeks, which is totally inappropriate, and I don’t believe that that’s by our laws. I don’t believe that. So we’ll see what happens.”10 The defendant said this despite—or perhaps because—his private advisors had informed him that it was unlikely that the winner of the election would be declared on November 3.

Update: As I suspected she might, Judge Chutkan gave Trump more time — just enough to get beyond the election. But not all the time he requested.

MINUTE ORDER as to DONALD J. TRUMP: Defendant’s [253] “Motion to Extend Page Limits and Time to Respond to Government’s Motion for Immunity Determinations and for Leave to File a Sur-Reply” is hereby GRANTED in part and DENIED in part. The court’s [233] Order is MODIFIED as follows: Defendant’s combined Response and Renewed Motion to Dismiss Based on Presidential Immunity is due November 7, 2024 and may include up to 180 pages; the Government’s combined Reply and Opposition is due November 21, 2024; and Defendant may file a combined Reply and Sur-Reply by December 5, 2024. Signed by Judge Tanya S. Chutkan on 10/3/2024. (zcll)

John Roberts’ Sordid Legacy: 14 Pages of Mean Tweets

“One of the ways Trump” disseminated false claims of election fraud, Jack Smith’s immunity briefing describes, “was by Tweet, day in and day out.”

I’m still wading through Jack Smith’s immunity briefing. Later today, I plan to explain how we got here and how Trump’s lawyers will try to bury it. Then I’ll show the substance of their argument, how prosecutors plan to convict Donald Trump for attempting to steal an election without using any evidence that Chief Justice John Roberts has deemed official and therefore immune.

But first I want to talk about an utterly remarkable passage in the filing: 14 pages examining Trump’s mean tweets.

As I’ll explain in more detail later, the filing first lays out, in Part I, what evidence prosecutors plan to rely on, then sets up a legal framework to conduct this analysis, and then explains, in Part III, why the evidence laid out in the first part is not immune.

In Part III, prosecutors go both by type of evidence (for example, conversations with Republican state officials and politicians) to explain why such conduct is not immune. The section looks like this:

  • Trump’s interactions with Pence
    • Trump’s interactions with Pence were official, but presumption of immunity is overcome
    • Trump’s interactions with Pence as a running mate were unofficial
  • Trump’s interactions with officials from swing states
    • The interactions were unofficial (followed by five instances)
    • Even if they were official, the government can rebut the presumption of immunity
  • Trump’s efforts to organize fake electors
    • The effort was unofficial
    • Even if it was official, the government can rebut the presumption of immunity
  • Trump’s public speeches and tweets as a candidate
    • The statements were unofficial
      • Speeches (with analysis of the two prosecutors want to use, one in Georgia and the January 6 one)
      • Tweets
      • Other public statements
    • Parts of Trump’s statements that are official can be excised
  • Trump’s interactions with White House staff (including Eric Herschmann, Dan Scavino, Molly Michaels, and two others)
    • The interactions were unofficial
    • The government could rebut any presumption of immunity
  • Other evidence of knowledge and intent
    • The evidence was unofficial
      • Federal officials (including Bill Barr and Chris Krebs)
      • Evidence about Trump’s use of Twitter
      • Trump’s post-Administration statements
    • Even if it were official, the government could rebut any presumption of immunity

This section takes up 75 pages of the brief.

Of that, 18 pages are dedicated to analysis about Trump’s Tweets (not including the additional pages describing how they plan to explain Trump’s Twitter habits). Fourteen of those pages go through Trump’s manic Tweets from the period, each time explaining why such Tweets should not be viewed as the official acts of the President of the United States.

The section describes six ways Trump’s Twitter habit served his coup attempt:

  • Casting doubt on election integrity
  • Making false claims of election fraud
  • Attacking Republicans who speak the truth about the election
    • Al Schmidt
    • Chris Krebs
    • Rusty Bowers and four Pennsylvania State GOP legislators
    • Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Brian Hagedorn
    • Chris Carr
    • Governor Doug Ducey, Governor Brian Kemp, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger
  • Exhorting people to come to January 6
  • Pressuring Mike Pence
  • Almost getting Mike Pence killed

Prosecutors don’t include all the attacks Trump made on Twitter — for example, while Section I describes his attacks on Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman, prosecutors don’t include them in the immunity analysis. The immunity analysis instead focuses only on the people with whom, Trump might argue, he was engaged in official business by ginning up death threats against them.

John Roberts not only rewrote the Constitution to protect Donald Trump. He forced prosecutors to spend 14 pages arguing that it is not among the job duties of the President of the United States to attack Republicans who’ve crossed him on Twitter.

This is what the Chief Justice wants to protect. This is the all-powerful President John Roberts wants to have. Someone who can sit in his dining room siccing mobs on fellow Republicans.

Who knows whether it will work? Who knows whether these right wing Justices will go that far — to argue that even the President’s mean Tweets targeting members of his own party must be protected from any accountability?

But prosecutors personalized it.

As noted above, the 14 pages analyzing mean Tweets follows the analysis of two rally speeches, in which prosecutors first show the January 4 Georgia speech was a campaign event, and then (among other things) lay out the similarity between that speech and Trump’s January 6 one.

Among the things Trump included in both speeches was an attack on the Supreme Court:

The defendant, who in his capacity as a candidate had suffered personal legal defeats in his private, election-related litigation at the Supreme Court, attacked it (Dalton at GA 1095; “I’m not happy with the Supreme Court. They are not stepping up to the plate. They’re not stepping up.” Ellipse at GA 1125: “I’m not happy with the Supreme Court. They love to rule against me.”).

Of course, the Justices can’t view that as an official act. It would be anathema to the very principles of separation of powers the Justices claim to be guarding. Plus (as noted here and elsewhere), Trump had specifically labeled his intervention in Ken Paxton’s lawsuit as done in his personal capacity. But building off how obviously unofficial this attack on John Roberts and his buddies is, it makes it all the more obvious that Donald Trump’s mean Tweets aren’t official acts either.

Though the inclusion of Trump’s attacks on them also might get these partisan hacks to think more seriously about the nearly identical exhortations Trump made on Truth Social before they decided to rewrite the Constitution in his favor.

Update: Fixed where I said that Trump intervened in Ken Paxton’s lawsuit in his official capacity–he specifically said he did so in his personal capacity as a candidate.