We are still learning more each day about the disease and the vaccine(s).
e.g. If the FDA approves delaying the second dose of Pfizer/ Moderna then everyone will be able to get their first dose in half the time.
Researchers urge delaying Pfizer vaccine’s second dose as first highly effective FEBRUARY 17, 2021
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer/researchers-urge-delay-in-administering-pfizer-vaccines-second-dose-cite-strong-data-idUSKBN2AI0EC

The vaccine had an efficacy of 92.6% after the first dose.

While Pfizer and Moderna are in the process of tweaking their vaccines to address the newly emerging variants, those still need to be tested and approved. Testing will be faster than starting from scratch, but it still needs to be done. Even assuming the altered vaccines clear testing and FDA approval (both (hopefully) pretty safe assumptions), we are still some time (months?) from when they’ll be ready to be put in arms.

Haven’t heard that about Pfizer. My understanding is their position has been “we didn’t test delaying second shots, so we can’t advocate for that.” That’s Fauci’s position, too. Recall the relatively recent debate about the allowable window for getting the second shot, which I believe is now considered to be two to three weeks, that is, after the three (P) or four (M) week waiting period. This is something I’ve all of a sudden become concerned about because my daughter (health field) was supposed to get her second Moderna shot today in L.A., four weeks after shot one. But her appointment has been cancelled due to vax unavailable resulting from the storm. She’s now told, don’t call us, we’ll call you.

While there have been some very good rather preliminary efficacy results after shot one only, what is unclear is how long the protection will last. Doc on CNN (retired Harvard, sorry can’t recall name) said we just don’t know how long one shot protection will last and was recommending against it. Now, you might say, well, we don’t know how long protection from two shots will last, so isn’t this really the same sorta thing? Fair point, but for me I’m going to listen to the scientists.

I said my expectations were different. People are telling me they aren’t rational, that I shouldn’t have to worry that the government can’t tell me about when and where my children and grandchildren will receive a vaccine. I talked with people today in the 70-75 age bracket. They have no clue how to obtain the vaccine after being on the internet for many days despite access to all the information above. I will alter Robert Kennedy. Some people see things as they are and ask why, as I am doing. I also dream and ask for things that aren’t and ask why not? Perhaps more succinctly there are a thousand reasons why one can’t do something as people are telling me above. I only expect that if the government knows how many vaccines are being produced it has a national distribution plan that can tell about when by age bracket and susceptibility someone is probably going to receive a shot. That apparently is too much to ask and beyond the administration’s capability.

I apologize Rayne. I won’t post here again so you and others won’t be so troubled. I will only say you completely misunderstood what I was saying. Completely. By the way, imagine being human and trying to get a vaccination.

…loading for fifteen minutes..each time!!

skua, for your information I’ll break my promise not to post and post this one last time.

My situation and point wasn’t about frustration at not having a vaccination “right the fuck now” as Rayne so elegantly expresses herself. It is not like being in the middle of a fire fight. The purpose of that story was simply to say if one is asking for a/the position of responsibility in what are potentially life and death decision making situations it is best for all concerned that the one has a plan and can react appropriately. This pandemic is a life and death situation. I don’t see a national plan from Biden in the way I assume I would have seen one in what is essentially a national triage situation. Rayne is saying above there isn’t one in saying wait for one to be communicated broadly. I would say there isn’t one because if there were it already would have been communicated broadly. By a national plan I mean if the national government knows how many doses a day can be delivered to the general population it can and should have a plan to prioritize within that triage situation how to deliver doses to the most immediately needy or important cohort as the doses become available. So as an ultra simple example let’s say the national government knows the providers can deliver 1MM doses a day. If the triage cohort priority is set by the national government e.g. by age groupings and the oldest age group comes first (I understand health and race susceptibility issues and health care worker protection issues – it’s only an example of cohort setting for this explanation) then it can be determined quickly how big the cohort is and how many doses are needed, i.e. how many days it will take to cover the cohort. (Social security can probably tell you in fifteen minutes the exact number by name, age, and address). I quickly looked at the 2010 census and there were approximately 24MM people in the >75 age bracket where Rayne’s father sits. I looked at website called Statista and it said 59MM doses have been given (I think) by today. If the >75 cohort were the first priority then even given the probable increase in that cohort from 2010 a viable plan would have had at least one dose already administered to that cohort, even if it had to make up for Trump misallocations. Rayne’s father would already have had at least one shot. Remember social security already has names and addresses, so in that triage age-only priority example it becomes a communication and distribution problem solving exercise. Pay Amazon and Google to help you nail it down if you don’t have in house resources. They could probably solve the communication/distribution issues in a hard, long couple days and relish the chance. Hell, they can probably figure out any cohort composition in short order. In fact you could have been talking with them long before inauguration day to get a real understanding of the distribution/communication issues on the table you would have to deal with immediately on that day. So one goes on down the line. Within a fairly close range one can estimate when each defined cohort is going to be targeted. That’s all I am saying. I don’t care when the vaccine is coming as long as it is coming. But if because of priority placement it is coming in nine months I have to plan differently than if it is coming in two months. People have to have some certainty about the future. That is what is killing the world right now, socially and economically. It has no certainty individually or collectively.

I understand Trump’s bed crapping. But if you were in Biden’s shoes you would have known long before inauguration that Trump was crapping the bed, somehow those vaccines were going to have to be prioritized in some way by the national government to achieve maximum effectiveness against the pandemic, and you would have to know how many vaccines were being produced on a weekly basis to do the requisite allocation. So he needed a plan going into inauguration day that basically said how are we going to prioritize, how are we going to get those vaccines distributed to the right people, and how do we communicate that to the public so everyone can plan their lives in some way for the next eighteen months? He didn’t need to wait until inauguration day to start. You wouldn’t have.

Rayne thinks I am inconvenienced because of Trump and I am worried about getting the vaccine “right the fuck now.” I am saying I don’t care when I get vaccine as long as I can get it, I have to plan my life in the interim, I think the government has the ability to get a pretty good fix on telling everyone about when that might be for the reasons explained above, has not used that ability, probably won’t use that ability, and will maximize uncertainty. As one consequence, I think her father is in a cohort that should/would be at the top of any triage priority list in a viable plan and because the plan isn’t viable right now her father doesn’t know when the shot will happen and when certainty comes back into his life or she into her life. That’s what I was complaining about. I was complaining on behalf of her father and everyone else like her father, which is just about everybody else, because the government is capable of so much more.

That’s it. The government can put a robot on Mars, pay out pandemic checks to millions in short order, but can’t get a shot to Rayne’s father. And she is swearing at me. It’s an interesting and informative blog but masochism isn’t my thing.

1. How many people are in a platoon?
2. How many people are in the country?

We’ve been told everyone should have their vaccination by July. Finer detail is taking a little time to figure out.