BREAKING: C Street Member Says Health Care Bill Will Fail

In an article lacking some pretty important follow-up questions, Jodi Kantor tucks in this judgment, from C Street member Bart Stupak.

He is trying to pass the health care overhaul, he insists, not sabotage it, and predicts that the legislation will ultimately collapse for reasons apart from abortion. But he will be blamed anyway, he is sure.

“I get the distinct impression that I’m the last guy the president wants to see,” he said. [my emphasis]

Now, at one level, I think Stupak is right on. The women in both the House and Senate have proven themselves willing to allow Stupak and Ben Nelson to use health care as a means to restrict access to reproductive care in this country; there’s no reason to believe that that will change.

But I am curious why, then, Stupak believes health care will fail.

There are, IMO, two possible reasons. The most obvious would be if the House refused to accept the Senate’s Hocus Pocus Excise tax. A couple of the corporatist Democrats in the Senate, having refused other, more effective cost control measures (like drug reimportation and a public option) insist on the Hocus Pocus Excise tax, claiming they need to do something to control cost. So if the House were to refuse to accept that as is, it might well scotch the bill.

But there’s another possibility: that those same corporatist Democrats refuse to accept ways (probably subsidies) to make the bill remotely affordable to the middle class. That would be news. Because it would mean that Stupak, who is not himself a Blue Dog but who may know their mood on this, may have reason to believe we’ll actually lose conservatives in the House (or those same obstructionists in the Senate) if this bill becomes anything but a plan to turn the American middle class into serfs handing over chunks of their income away to the health care industry.

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  1. emptywheel says:

    As to the other questions Kantor didn’t ask.

    1) Why, in a state in which the senior most member of the Congressional delegation, coming from the third most liberal CD in the state, is still there almost solely BECAUSE of his NRA rating, would he think that his own views on guns aren’t viable state-wide?

    2) Why, when the now-leading Democratic candidate for the gubernatorial primary is anti-choice, does he think anti-choice views are not at least somewhat viable state-wide?

    • Riesz Fischer says:

      …when the now-leading Democratic candidate for the gubernatorial primary is anti-choice

      Seriously?

      I guess our choice is between Mad Max and The Handmaid’s Tale.

  2. dakine01 says:

    But there’s another possibility: that those same corporatist Democrats refuse to accept ways (probably subsidies) to make the bill remotely affordable to the middle class.

    Ding ef’fing Ding!

    As always, I may be an idiot but it seems the whole reason for “Health Care Reform” is to ease the burden on the citizenry. What part of this is too complicated for the idjits in DC to understand?

  3. BoxTurtle says:

    There are quite a few politicians doing one thing in public and something completely different when nobody other than other lawmakers are watching. Sutpak is likely aware of where each member really stands and how far they’re willing to go to protect their cash flow.

    Which means to me that there enough progressive votes to stop the kind of bill the senate wants and there are also enough corporate votes to stop the kind of bill the progressives want. Stupak clearly thinks either side will kill the bill before they compromise enough to pass it.

    He’s probably right, darn it. We SHOULD have enough votes to pass a public option, based on public statements. But we can’t even get one out of committee. There’s more than one Lieberman fighting for the Insurance Companies, but I’m not sure we know all of them.

    Boxturtle (We have the most skilled politicians in the world. They can speak from both faces, with the same forked tongue, at the same time!)

  4. belewlaw says:

    I disagree with Stupak. I think something will pass, but if it doesn’t it will be due to the abortion issue. Marcy is right about the Senate tax mechanism, but I believe that the strategy is to enact something into law and fix it later. If the legislation includes the Senate tax provision, the problems that this tax creates will be soon apparent (see Alternative Minimum Tax). Pressure will mount to replace the tax with more sensible provisions.

    For the House, I think affordability and access are the two principal issues.On the abortion issue, I am hopeful that some sort of firewall between public and private money can be erected that does not result in the loss of the right to choose.

    • BoxTurtle says:

      Yeah, but based on what I’ve seeing so far, America may be better off without whatever “something” this congress passes.

      Boxturtle (Sad, but true)

  5. Loo Hoo. says:

    I think he’s blowing smoke, or smoking blow. Why won’t he name his ten principled compatriots?

    • BoxTurtle says:

      Likely because those compatriots out there in public, apparently fighting for the public option!

      Boxturtle (Side note: How does a CStreeter define “principled”?)

  6. freeman says:

    Having eliminated drug re importation and a public option perhaps House democrats realize the backlash for voting in favor of this garbage legislation will make this coming November very bleak indeed as virtually all polls have recently shown .

    House progressive should save the democrats skins and vote as they promised ,against any bill without a strong public option , which this bill is lacking !

    • alan1tx says:

      People may answer poll questions that way, but I doubt 60% of Americans know what Public Option even is. Have you seen those “man in the street” interviews?

      • Mason says:

        Have you seen those “man in the street” interviews?

        Man on the sidewalk is smarter and knows more than man in the street.

      • Leen says:

        Hell things were moving so fast and the changing legislation so confusing that I would put money on that if you asked the men and women in congress and the Senate what the “public option” was they would not have been able to answer clearly.

        But I have asked lots of folks how they would define the public option and most answer that it would give people access to a government run insurance program that would compete with private insurers. I have been surprised by how much folks on the street know and also don’t know

      • MarkH says:

        I spoke with a couple of nurses the other day and they didn’t even know what was going on with reform or what was being considered.

        One said her main interest was a 33% increase in taxes on gas. I’ve never even heard of that, but she was adamant it was on it’s way. I asked “state or federal” and she said “federal”.

        What people believe ain’t always the truth and the truth ain’t always worth believin’.

    • BoxTurtle says:

      Get that random sample of that 60% in a room and ask them what public option means, you’ll get a LOT of different, sometimes contradictory, answers.

      For some, it means the government pays for everything. For others, it means the government pays for everything it covers. For others, it means the government competes with the private insurers to get who can give the best price. Or opening up medicare to everyone. My neighbor thinks it means that the government will simply start paying for his current policy.

      Boxturtle (And most of that 60% don’t even consider how the government will pay for it)

  7. Surtt says:

    But there’s another possibility: that those same corporatist Democrats refuse to accept ways (probably subsidies) to make the bill remotely affordable to the middle class.

    I thought the whole point was to channel federal money to the insurance companies via subsidies.

  8. ShotoJamf says:

    But I am curious why, then, Stupak believes health care will fail.

    Easy. Jeezuz talks directly to him throught the C-Street Portal…Plugged straight into the Big Guy circuit…

  9. alan1tx says:

    Why can abortion be ruled out just because someone objects to it?

    I object to cigarette smoke, how about we don’t cover smokers too.

    Then there’s obesity. That’s a huge drain on the nations health care system. You eat too much fast food, you’re out of the system.

    What’s next?

    • Mason says:

      Then there’s obesity. That’s a huge drain on the nations health care system. You eat too much fast food, you’re out of the system.

      What’s next?

      The BACONATOR.

      Coming to a Wendy’s near you.

      • MarkH says:

        Are you implying that having eaten at Wendy’s would qualify as a pre-existing condition which disqualifies one for getting healthcare insurance?

        Aaah, well, yeah I can see that.

        Can I have a side order of grease with that bacon? :-

        • temptingfate says:

          Bacon, cheese and salt. The three most important flavor enhancers in fast foods. How could something so good possibly be bad for you?

          Must be the preservatives. Or the lettuce.

  10. temptingfate says:

    This being politics maybe the reason for this disclosure at this time is to test the waters around moving the line in the sand a bit closer to where the companies want and a bit farther away from where lefties thought it would go.

    When an already compromised politician offers to tell you the truth it’s remotely possible they are hedging the facts. I seriously doubt that the health insurance reinvigoration act is dead. They probably just need to drop the CBO score a bit more by lowering the federal government’s commitment to the poor.

    “Look we wanted to throw you middle-class folks a bone or two but jeepers we had all of these mean people that wouldn’t compromise with us. If we just get a bigger majority we’ll do better next time. Honest. For now you’re just going to have to buck up, bite the bullet and put your head between your legs…”

    • temptingfate says:

      Hey, you got your anthrax in my heroin!
      You got your heroin in my anthrax!

      These things happen all the time. That’s why you’re supposed to keep the child-proof caps on.

        • temptingfate says:

          My first thought when I saw the story was, perhaps it’s not being called a war on drugs for nothing. There have been plenty of movies suggesting this approach in the past. Maybe someone decided to give it a go.

    • freepatriot says:

      I really only go to Faux for the pop tarts. You all believe me, right?

      boxturtles don’t eat pop tarts

      thas why I stopped sharin my breakfast with em …

      (duckin & runnin)

  11. amghru says:

    Congressional Dems will pass a bill because the insurance/pharma industry wants them to pass it. Nearly everything in DC is exactly the opposite of what they call it (i.e. the “Fair Tax” that isn’t fair the “Patriot Act” that isn’t patriotic. “TARP” that didn’t buy up the toxic assets but just gave the money to the banksters with no strings). ORhama was bought and paid for on this issue before he ever won the election and the use of the word “reform” is a misnomer for “further entrench the status quo”. Am I the only one who noticed that the healthcare/industrial complex didn’t spend a dime on ads against Obama even though he actively campaigned on reining them in.

  12. tbsa says:

    Seems the Orahma administration has finally come out for an issue. Tax the poor bastards in the unions to pay for healthcare. How’s that for some change.

  13. selise says:

    effective cost control measures (like drug reimportation and a public option)

    i don’t think the house’s public option qualifies as effective cost control. iirc, it was supposed to be something less than one percent of NHE. (is there some analysis i don’t know about?)

  14. freeman says:

    The House has this last opportunity to scrap this legislation entirely and put single payer back on the table ! Nothing would go so far to re energize the base and shore up their re election in November .

    Barring that the progressive community should withdraw virtually ALL support for anything but the most ardent progressive democrats !

    Run candidates in the next election as a third party along with disaffected libertarian voters which could eliminate the , a vote for a third party is a vote for the republicans defence by balancing the equation .

    Business as usual must end now !

    • maryo2 says:

      “The House has this last opportunity to scrap this legislation entirely and put single payer back on the table !”

      Absolutely. Divide the House clearly between corporatist Democrats and those working for the People. Call them out clearly and let the bill fail at their feet as dramatically as possible. Then start again next Congressional session with a public option.

      It would be a bumpy ride, but if a poor bill passes and reform fails as it surely will, then Republicans will gain too many seats in years to come. We’ll be double screwed.

      • selise says:

        if you think single payer should be put on the table now, why do you want to start again next congressional session with a public option?

        • maryo2 says:

          I want single payer now, but if it is not in the bill then I hope the bill dies in the House. But I want to see it passed ASAP. I wrote my Representative yesterday saying no tax on premo insurance policies (burden on middle class) and yes to public option (better for the economy). I got Rep DeFazio and Sen Wyden, so it’s like preaching to the choir, but I contact them anyway.

          I don’t want a bad bill. It will hurt the economy and then the Republicans will be all gleeful. A bad bill is not reform.

        • selise says:

          single payer is NOT AT ALL the same thing as the public option… contra some extremely dishonest statements from hcan reps. this is one of the reasons i’ve argued for putting single payer on our table for discussion and debate — to provide a counter weight to the misinformation that has been spread.

          here is some info on single payer: http://www.pnhp.org/facts/single-payer-resources

  15. alexius says:

    Frankly, i was shocked by Bart’s amendment. It’s not that i don’t know his belief on the issue. I was shocked that he brought it out in the way he did; he’s entitled to his belief, but he isn’t entitled to force me by law to agree with it.

    He’s extra shady about the C Street connection. I’ve always wanted to ask him about it, but i see him most often in non-political situations. And my connection to him is personal, through my SO, so that complicates matters.

    People should understand the district he represents. We don’t have many true Democrats or Republicans up here; we have mostly left-libertarians and right-libertarians. No anti-gun candidate is going to get elected in the 1st, seriously, it isn’t going to happen. It may include more than 30 counties out of 83, but Marquette is the biggest city in the district…and our population is only 20,000 plus a portion of the 9,000 students at NMU.

    I’m actually surprised that he’s not going to run for governor. I’m not saying that i’d vote for him. The Stupak Amendment has soured me badly. But i think that he’d have a better than average shot at winning.

    • donnadiva says:

      Anti-choice is not libertarian to me but a surprising number of self-identified libertarian males are anti-choice. I guess the concept of liberty only extends to men and their right to protect their property (which I guess includes women and the contents of their wombs).

      • alexius says:

        I agree. I didn’t say that Bart is a libertarian. And while this move will help him among many in this district, it will also hurt him.

        We also have to consider that many on the right who call themselves “libertarian” aren’t, but that’s a different issue. My point was that this is a hard district to nail down. A lot of lines are blurred. Not that it matters, a great number of maps depicting the United States don’t even include us.

  16. wreq says:

    The unions are stepping on the necks of their pals in the house to eliminate the senate excise tax. Unions are the difference between many house dems victories or defeats. Human nature pushes us to protect ourselves first and house dems know where there bread is buttered. May this bill die a death it so richly deserves. Medicare for all!!!

  17. Neil says:

    the congressman described years of feeling ignored, slighted or marginalized by his party for his anti-abortion views.

    Right wingers love this pose – martyr for principle – but the anti-choice movement whether left or right is completely willing to adopt it, too. They feel marginalized by people who disagree with them.

    “Before, when we talked about pro-life Democrats, you’d get a snicker and a laugh,” he said. “We were just always overlooked. We’re not overlooked anymore.”

    .. victimized pro-life Democrats who are now enjoying some righteous vindication.

    Does Bart state or imply he believes his efforts will be successful or not … or does Bart manage to not address that question at all? If not at all, how odd for savvy political writing.

    I can’t tell whether he thinks the bill will implode before it gets to resolving Stupak or whether he’s implicitly admitting he doesn’t have the votes to block. Is the Mexican standoff a bluff?

    Regarding this statement:

    “I get the distinct impression that I’m the last guy the president wants to see,” he said.

    It was not long ago that Obama invited Stupak to the WH to talk about his amendment and Stupak refused to meet. Stupak once again chooses victim and outcast without mentioning he was invited to talk and refused.

    The photo of Stupak in his office in the Times piece, shows Stupak may be a Michigan State fan and Favre fan. Who can place the Favre jersey in his office? It doesn’t look like Packers colors, more like the Browns but Favre was never in Cleveland just Atlanta, GB, NYJ and Minn.

    • Neil says:

      Sorry about the pivot to football. The national championship game will be played tonight and I couldn’t resist. (BCS has delivered some competitive and exciting bowl games this year. Who’s been watching? Perhaps I should wait and have this conversation on another thread.)

      • MarkH says:

        Whatta ya mean “tonight”? Boise State already beat TCU. Two unbeaten teams and a close great game that came down to the final minute. What was not to like?

        Tonight’s game will probably be a good one too.

        • Neil says:

          Whatta ya mean “tonight”? Boise State already beat TCU. Two unbeaten teams and a close great game that came down to the final minute. What was not to like?

          Starting with the trash talking already, eh? That was a fantastic game.

          Boise State did it again, and again they will reap big recruiting dividends. They’ll have to continue to play the top 20 teams on the road but I think they can handle it.

          What impresses me so about Boise St is the execution of their trick plays and their reliance on their trick play playbook when their backs are to the wall.

          They have it; attitude, aptitude, and confidence in their ability to succeed.

        • bmaz says:

          Boise State Co-National Champs!

          If the winner of Tide v. Horns won’t or can’t play Boise State, they are entitled to share the national crown!

        • Neil says:

          Great! We get another game based on the Bmaz Amendment to NCAA/BCS rules. Count me in. Think we can get Kerry and Stupak to sponsor the amendment and push it through in an omnibus spending bill?

        • maryo2 says:

          Uh, no.

          Roll Tide

          :)

          Do you know how they feed them boys in the South? Idahoans don’t get them kind of viddles. Heck, half Bama’s mamas lay football-shaped eggs.

        • freepatriot says:

          Do you know how they feed them boys in the South? Idahoans don’t get them kind of viddles.

          city folks (rotflmao)

          you prolly think that California is full of sushi eatin, twig munchin health food nutz too

          I’ll let ya city folk in on a lil secret

          outside the city limits, people KNOW how to eat. The plates git bigger and a whole lot fuller. They got “side boards” to keep the food on em

          you ain’t ett till ya been at a down home country farm table, they stack it 14 inches wide an 3 inches deep. An if ya don’t come back fer more, it’s considered an insult to da cook

          cept fer being a frozen hell hole for 4 months a year, Idaho is a lot like the south

          there’s a rule in the chow line; If you can see the plate, you ain’t got enough food

          here’s the usual prayer

          Rub a dub dub

          thanks fer the grub

          in the name of the father son and holy ghost

          the one that eats the fastest gets the most


          (rootin for NONE OF THE ABOVE)

    • phred says:

      Neil, check the color on your monitor, that’s a green Packer jersey with gold stripes on the short sleeves. I have the same jersey and wore it regularly up until Brett’s Viking exuberance at Packer expense stuck in my craw after their first match-up this fall. That jersey now occupies a back dark corner of my closet ; ) I haven’t been following the BCS, but I do know the Badgers won their game ; )

      Thanks for your comment as well. Pretty rich to have to listen to a person who is actively working to oppress others on the basis of his religious/political beliefs turn around and claim that he has been oppressed. Martyr my ass.

      I hope someone kills this travesty of a bill. At this point, I don’t particularly care who does it as long as it gets done. Then maybe we can get some grown-ups to do something simple like open up Medicare to anyone who wants it.

      • selise says:

        …open up Medicare to anyone who wants it.

        without very strong regulation and enforcement (especially risk adjustment), that could end up wrecking medicare. i’m much rather see medicare fixed and then entire age cohorts added (0-18 or 55-65 for example) if intermediate steps are wanted.

        • phred says:

          I’m not familiar enough with Medicare to know why simply opening it up to anyone who wants it would wreck it, but I have no reason to doubt your assessment of that possibility : ) Perhaps you can explain it to me at some point, but alas, I don’t have time to chat this afternoon, so maybe it’s better to get into it on another occasion when I can be more attentive…

          All I was trying to suggest though, was rather than giving Congress another crack at letting their lobbyists write another bill larded up with corporate hand-outs, perhaps they should stick with something simpler. Medicare seems the obvious choice, but I’m happy to hear about alternatives. I’m just not keen on creating a whole new layer of bureaucracy, when our government barely functions as it is.

        • selise says:

          phred, please do doubt me! your skepticism is always welcome.

          but will save the discussion for another day. (and i completely agree re keeping it simple).

      • Neil says:

        You’re right Phred. My monitor is SNAFU.

        This is my biggest flash point at this stage in the health bill process: Who/why is the WH pushing for the Senate Financing instead of the house financing?

        Given every proclamation by Obama about being champion of the middle class during the campaign, the WHs position on health insurance bill financing is seemingly outrageous.

    • alexius says:

      Stupak is a huge Packers fan. Menominee (his home) is just across the Marinette River from Wisconsin. And Yoopers are, by-and-large, rabid Packers fans. I once sat through a commencement address at NMU that Bart spoke at; he started by making a Lions joke. So i’ve known that he has traitorous instincts for some time.

      His surviving son is a Michigan State Alum.

        • alexius says:

          At one point last season, the NFL network had sole rights for a Packers’ game. They weren’t going to allow network broadcast in the UP because it isn’t part of GB’s “home area”. Stupak made several (i imagine frantic) calls and the game was shown on local, network affiliates.

          I would imagine he won many votes that night.

        • Neil says:

          Sen Kerry also weighed in on a NFL broadcast access issue when Fox wanted approx. $1/subscriber from cable company Warner, a steep fee for a channel is the basic cable lineup.

          Good to know senators are good for something, expanding access to NFL viewership. Pass the potato chips!

          Not to be too hard on the Pack but when you think about it, isn’t the whole country “home area” for “America’s Team”, that is the team Favre is playing on?

        • alexius says:

          Oh man, don’t get me started. I’m a native Detroiter who now lives in the UP surrounded by traitorous Cheeseheads…who are only to happy to root for the Tigers and the Red Wings.

          I hate the Packers with a spittle-inducing sort of rage that can only come from living behind enemy lines and amongst traitors.

        • alexius says:

          No worries, i’m still inoculated from seeing my local paper print a picture of Favre celebrating a touchdown in GB (Vikings won that game) with a sea of #4 jerseys behind him…all replete with expressions of confusion, dismay and pain.

    • freepatriot says:

      the congressman described years of feeling ignored, slighted or marginalized by his party for his anti-abortion views.

      what’s that like ???

      like someone ACTUALLY being ignored, slighted or marginalized by his party for his anti-WAR views

      tell stupak he can find sympathy in the dictionary, right between shit and syphilis

  18. earlofhuntingdon says:

    No surprise to anyone here, Republicans would relish this bill’s failure – if it means depriving their opposition of a major legislative victory and shutting down efforts to reform health care. (Why middle and working class Republicans don’t object to their leadership doing this, I’ll never understand.)

    I think it’s fair to say many ConservaDems would relish the same outcome – if it preserves the profits of their corporate supporters, both insurance and medical, and others, who view killing effective insurance reforms as a litmus test of their loyalty to big business.

    My prediction is that we’ll have a circular firing squad, whose members aim rhetorical barbs at each other in hopes that general confusion and frustration will result, such that people blame their own devil du jour. I never knew that Rube Goldberg was a Founding Father and a continuing legislative powerhouse.

    • Leen says:

      Most of the conservadems have their asses covered up to some degree. Hide behind their alleged religious beliefs while millions go uninsured. The “if god wanted everyone to have health care he would have either made them rich or provided them with access” sicko kind of thinking.

    • selise says:

      if your comment @44 was to me, i didn’t say my comments were censored. just that there is a lot of misunderstanding about single payer / public option and that imo a wide open debate would help (i was thinking more re fdl and progressive blogs as a whole, and mention it now because marcy has recently started weighing in with some most excellent healthcare posts). of course, if no one wants to read about policy to correct those misunderstandings, then i’m completely wrong about the benefits of open debate and should be ignored.

  19. MarkH says:

    If they have trouble with subsidies that appear too high, then we might expand the federal health centers even further or put a lower cap on yearly OOP expenses or some other combination of things.

    My guess if we can have some of all these ideas so long as none is so extreme that it raises anyone’s hackles. Politicians will often go along with something so long as it doesn’t become a beacon on the radar screen for their political opponents.

  20. solerso says:

    This “New Feuadalism” as you correctly describe the beggining of it, is the only place left for capitalism to go, right back to where it started. with vast huge areas of the earth still undeveloped in the 20th century, they could claim with some truth that we will just go on getting richer and opening new markets. but wealth must come from somehwere, and that somewhere is the earth itself. as that wealth gets thinner and costlier to exploit, and there is greater competition for it, the capitalists wont be able to decieve, bribe and cheat workers into getting it for them. they will have to enslave us.

  21. earlofhuntingdon says:

    Does anyone else notice that CongressCritters newly discovering their cost-consciousness (while hiding it over government wars, spying and outsourcing) produces a frenzy of concern that obscures what the public goal of that spending is to promote — better access to health care (and whose responsible for denying it out of fear or conviction)?

    • ffein says:

      Yes! And it drives me crazy. Nobody, including (especially) the media ever comments on the costs of the wars. Just a lot of the indignation and alarm over the cost of people’s health.

  22. maryo2 says:

    oh, not to you. The post I was replying to is indeed gone after I refreshed.

    Oh, sorry for the confusion. I have been reading your links to learn more about single payer. Thanks for those.

    • earlofhuntingdon says:

      Haven’t read it yet, but love the title. I imagine by now you hear little clicks every time you answer the phone.

  23. Loo Hoo. says:

    I’m sure it would be a breeze for these rookies to take on Frank and Pelosi. Thanks for a good laugh!

  24. rosalind says:

    hee.

    A banner-towing company has been hired to give Alabama fans attending the BCS national championship game in Pasadena tonight some political advice: Dump their governor.

    Arnold Aerial Advertising will fly a 30-by-100-foot banner reading “Impeach Corrupt Alabama Gov. Bob Riley” from noon to 4 p.m. above tailgating fans at the Rose Bowl.