How Obama might just win Ohio

In the state that broke Democratic hearts in 2004, favorable poll numbers and a wave of early voters could point to victory.

By Walter Shapiro
http://www.salon.com/news/feat…..newsletter

“ad buys in GA, AZ, and ND.”

Forcing McCain to answer with his own ad buys, where of course, he should have had these states sewn up long ago.

They might be gracious with McCain or they might be running such a great stealth campaign that overt rallies are not needed in AZ.

“Me, I think they’re probably not going to visit Arizona because they don’t need it to win and they’re trying to be gracious with McCain. But I think they’re bothering to advertise there because the close race is real.”

this is my sentiment, exactly, ew. i suffered great grief from bmaz and cinnamonape because of it, and i certainly understood their fervor.

but there it is. gracious. that is obama’s strength, and if he doesn’t need the ten votes, why rub mccain’s face in a loss?

gracious. i WANT obama to be gracious. i WANT my president to be gracious!

That Louisiana poll appears to be an outlier. The TMP poll tracker is still showing McCain with an 11 point lead. It always strikes me when someone such as a pollster comments that a lower turnout favors McCain, in other words, the antithesis of Democracy.

In Yacht Racing, the Key to Winning is to Maneuver relative to your opponent so that You Keep the Wind Advantage.

What this means in actual practice is a two-step process:

– Winning the Start to Get the Lead
– Keeping Your Opponent in-or-behind Your Exhaust Wind

This Strategy sets-up the Tactics, which, Skillfully-Used, bring Success 100% of the time, even for Boats that are Naturally Slower than their Opponents.

Where teams Go Wrong in Yacht Racing is when they depart from the Strategy, for whatever reason. The Classic Example is from the Challenger Series (the Citizen’s Cup) for the 1995 America’s Cup Races.

That year, there were three boats Challenging to take-on the then-current Cup-holder, New Zealand: Young America, Mighty Mary, and Stars-and-Stripes.

Of the three challengers, Stars-and-Stripes was the Concensus Slowest Boat. But, Stars-and-Stripes was Captained by Dennis Connor – arguably the Greatest Sailor Our Country has ever produced – and he kept it close enough, through Great Starts and good Tactical Maneuvering, that the Challenger Series came down to a Knock-Out Race against Mighty Mary, crewed by a Mostly Female Team that was Poised for History-Making Greatness.

In the Knock-Out Race, it was Mighty Mary that had a Great Start and Took the Lead. Employing the Time-Tested and Proven Tactical Plan of Denying Stars-and-Stripes the Wind, Mighty Mary legged-out to a 4-Minute Lead by the time she rounded the Buoy onto the Final Leg.

In Sailing, a 4-Minute Lead in the Final Leg is like Being Up 4 Touchdowns in the 4th Quarter of a Football Game – nobody blows a lead like that!

So, Connor rounds the Buoy into the Final Leg and figures he Needs A Miracle: He needs Mighty Mary to Stop Covering him, so he can take advantage of any Changes in Wind Direction, which he Has to Have for any Hope of a Win.

The Final Leg of the Race ran down the ‘right’ side of the Course towards the Finish Line, and Mighty Mary had a Nearly Straight Shot to get there. So, tacking left, Stars-and-Stripes began moving out towards the center of the Course – away from the Finish Line.

At first, Mighty Mary tacked left, also, to Cover the Wind and Keep the Advantage, but with the Finish Line in sight they then Tacked Right – Breaking Cover – in a bid to put the Coup-de-Grace to Connor.

Stars-and-Stripes fell behind 40 Boat Lengths, putting them in a 4th and 400 situation – but, they got Un-fettered access to the Wind – which suddenly slacked into a 4-knot cross-wind that shifted ‘just enough’ to put Proud Mary into a Lull – Stalled-Out (they couldn’t tack right without going ‘outside’ the Course) within a quarter-mile of the Finish Line.

Connor, otoh, was able to tack back towards the Finish Line and Lay-On the Sail.

40, 35, 30, 25, 20, Stars-and-Stripes steadily closed the Gap – and there was Nothing Mighty Mary could do about it. Why?

Because they didn’t follow the Yacht Racing Formula for Winning – they Broke Cover.

Had they Maintained the Wind Advantage – even if it meant Sailing Away from the Finish Line to Deny Stars-and-Sripes the Wind – they would have Stayed in Position – in Front – no matter what happened.

Instead, the impossible, the un-thinkable, happened – Stars-and-Stripes, the Slowest Boat, came All the Way Back and Won by 3 Boat Lengths – Dashing Mighty Mary’s bid for Greatness, and Sending them home Losers.

The lesson here for US is: Don’t Let the Sight of Tuesday’s Finish Line ‘lull’ US into thinking We’ve Got This Won.

When Obama is saying “We’re doing what we need to” – that means We have to Stay in the Boat with him and Keep the Wind out of McCain’s Sails.

Everything else will take care of itself!

Take Back America!

Hanging Chad Guy leads army of lawyers in FloridaEwen MacAskill in Orlando The Guardian, Friday October 31 2008 A team of 5,000 volunteer lawyers representing the Democrats will fan out across polling stations in Florida next Tuesday to ensure the Republicans do not ”steal” the election, as – Democrats claim – George Bush did eight years ago.

Heading the biggest team of lawyers ever assembled is Charles Lichtman, a partner in the Fort Lauderdale law firm Berger Singerman, who has been working as an unpaid volunteer for up to 18 hours a day since August. His drive comes from the experience of being what he describes as ”the Hanging Chad Guy”, leading a group of lawyers based in the infamous Broward County for weeks during the recount in 2000.

”Legitimate votes of citizens did not get counted. If they had been counted, we would not have been in Iraq and the economy would not have tanked,” Lichtman, 53, who is originally from Chicago, said. He vowed he would do his best to ensure it never happened again and began planning the operation that will be in place on November 4.

Barack Obama’s campaign team has recruited thousands of volunteer lawyers to attend polling stations in battleground states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, and other states where the vote could be close.

But the biggest push is in Florida, in part because of its history and also because polls suggest the vote will be tight.

The lawyers will be on hand to help any voters denied a ballot on spurious grounds, or fight to keep polling stations open late if they become overwhelmed by the expected high turnout. The Republicans will have their own lawyers across Florida too.

So far, Lichtman said, there had been no serious problems, other than long queues – with waits of two hours or more – as people take advantage of the early voting that has been in place for the last two weeks. ”The only issue is the long lines but I think that is a good thing. It shows an enthusiasm for democracy. It is a great problem to have,” Lichtman said. He was not anticipating any major legal challenges from the Republican side.

An Obama campaign worker in Florida, who requested anonymity because he had signed a pledge not to speak to the press, agreed that Republicans had not so far been mounting challenges to voter eligibility at polling stations.

But that, he said, was because the Republicans in Florida had adopted a different strategy, passing legislation that set stringent rules on voter registration. As a result, people were disqualified if there were minor discrepancies, for example between the name on a driving licence and on a registration form.

The Obama campaign worker, who comes from outside the state, said: ”I have never seen such shameless manipulation of a process as I have seen here.”

Lichtman’s equivalent on the Republican side is Ed Pozzuoli, another Fort Lauderdale-based lawyer. Pozzuoli, 46, who was also involved in the Broward recount, yesterday described Lichtman as an old friend, even though they are on different political sides.

Pozzuoli, a partner at the Tripp Scott law firm who was the lead Florida lawyer for Bush in the 2000 recount, would not say how many lawyers the Republicans would have in place on Tuesday. ”We will have enough,” he said.

Also a volunteer, he expressed concern about the number of Democrat lawyers. ”Five thousand lawyers with nothing to do seems likely an ingredient for mischief,” he said. ”I was there in 2000 and the more lawyers the Democrats had, the more mischief there was.”

The Republicans want everyone who is entitled to vote to be allowed to do so, he said. That meant the integrity of the process had to be protected.

The legislation on registration did not apply to existing voters but only 300,000 new ones, and of those only a couple of thousand were at issue, including those with names like Mickey Mouse, Pozzuoli said. ”When you allow Mickey Mouse to vote, that diminishes everyone’s right.”

Charlie Crist, the Republican governor of Florida, extended early voting hours this week by three hours a day, from 7am until 7pm

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