McCain’s Foxy Insta-Republicans

I just voted.

Yeah!

After I voted, I came home and looked at who else has voted nationally–14% of the electorate so far, and that’s not including my vote (which technically doesn’t get "counted" until election night). 

And looking at those numbers, I gotta believe the folks at Fox–who just switched their likely voter model to jimmy up a poll that showed McCain closing–are smoking crack.

Fox would have you believe that the electorate will be made up of 41% Democrats and 39% Republicans. What’s even more crack-worthy is that they suggest the make-up of the election has changed in the last week; last week, they said the electorate would be made up of 43% Democrats and 37% Republicans.

So here’s what has been happening in the interim time frame (most numbers are rounded except for Colorado):

Colorado: 52.3% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 38.6% are Democrats; 37.9% are Republicans.

Florida: 33% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 45% are Democrats; 39% are Republicans.

Iowa: 26% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 48% are Democrats; 29% are Republicans.

Louisiana: 14% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 58% are Democrats; 28% are Republicans.

Maine: 17% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 44% are Democrats; 28.5% are Republicans.

Nevada’s Washoe County (Reno–a swing county): 43% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 50% are Democrats; 34% are Republicans.

North Carolina: 52% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 53% are Democrats; 29% are Republicans. (In 2004, early voting split 47% Democrats; 37% Republicans.)

West Virginia: 12.5% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 59% are Democrats; 31.5% are Republicans.

Of all these swingy and right-leaning states, only Colorado shows Republican and Democratic turnout to be close. Only Florida shows Republicans performing as well as Fox says they will, across the whole election. And some of these numbers–particularly North Carolina and Iowa–show breath-taking leads right now for Democrats. 

I realize that it’s still possible that Republicans will flock to the polls in droves on Tuesday and these numbers will even out. But these numbers do provide proof that Democrats are voting. Republicans? Not so much. 

Yet Fox wants you to believe that, even while all these Democrats have been coming out to vote, the make-up of the electorate has gotten significantly more Republican. 

I guess Fox owed McCain a favor or something.