McCain’s Foxy Insta-Republicans
I just voted.
Yeah!
After I voted, I came home and looked at who else has voted nationally–14% of the electorate so far, and that’s not including my vote (which technically doesn’t get "counted" until election night).
And looking at those numbers, I gotta believe the folks at Fox–who just switched their likely voter model to jimmy up a poll that showed McCain closing–are smoking crack.
Fox would have you believe that the electorate will be made up of 41% Democrats and 39% Republicans. What’s even more crack-worthy is that they suggest the make-up of the election has changed in the last week; last week, they said the electorate would be made up of 43% Democrats and 37% Republicans.
So here’s what has been happening in the interim time frame (most numbers are rounded except for Colorado):
Colorado: 52.3% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 38.6% are Democrats; 37.9% are Republicans.
Florida: 33% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 45% are Democrats; 39% are Republicans.
Iowa: 26% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 48% are Democrats; 29% are Republicans.
Louisiana: 14% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 58% are Democrats; 28% are Republicans.
Maine: 17% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 44% are Democrats; 28.5% are Republicans.
Nevada’s Washoe County (Reno–a swing county): 43% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 50% are Democrats; 34% are Republicans.
North Carolina: 52% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 53% are Democrats; 29% are Republicans. (In 2004, early voting split 47% Democrats; 37% Republicans.)
West Virginia: 12.5% of voters (based on 2004 numbers) have voted. Of the early voters 59% are Democrats; 31.5% are Republicans.
Of all these swingy and right-leaning states, only Colorado shows Republican and Democratic turnout to be close. Only Florida shows Republicans performing as well as Fox says they will, across the whole election. And some of these numbers–particularly North Carolina and Iowa–show breath-taking leads right now for Democrats.
I realize that it’s still possible that Republicans will flock to the polls in droves on Tuesday and these numbers will even out. But these numbers do provide proof that Democrats are voting. Republicans? Not so much.
Yet Fox wants you to believe that, even while all these Democrats have been coming out to vote, the make-up of the electorate has gotten significantly more Republican.
I guess Fox owed McCain a favor or something.
I voted this morning too. In all the years I voted in San Diego (and 6 years in Maryland) I never waited for more than 10-15 minutes.
Today I waited an hour and 15 minutes. Mind you, this was at the ROV – I wanted to see their machinery in action.
Good to see so many people out, but next time, Vote By Mail for me!
I got in and out in a half hour. But we don’t have no excuse absentee voting here, so the folks who were there presumably figured out just recently they can’t make it to the polls on Tuesday.
Still, it was much more crowded and harried than I remember it being at an equivalent time in 2004.
I voted by mail 3 weeks ago. Ever since I’ve been hoping that they get my mail and it counts. Never used to question that, but now…
Sent my absentee by certified mail several weeks ago; when you get the green post card back, you know it was received. Well worth the extra expense.
North Carolina also has a neat web site listing info about individual voting stats. When I entered my name and county, it listed the date I requested the ballot and the date they mailed it. Last check indicated date it had been received……and even said “certified”.
I hand delivered mine last week. But one thing that I have noticed working the phone banks. I have encountered several demos who are voting for McShame and several R’s voting and even volunteering for Obama.
Jeebus, what false advertising the title to this post is. I came expecting some hot babes had suddenly shown up to shill for McCain or something. Was expecting some racy photos and all. But noooo, I get more Fox News Fraud.
I’m with randiego, next time it is vote by mail for me.
The LA County registrar-recorder has extended their ‘early voting’ hours (on-site absentee ballots, basically) through Saturday.
So far about 9,500 residents have trekked to Norwalk to vote since Oct. 6, prompting Logan to extend office hours. On Friday and Saturday voting booths are open from 8 a.m. until 8 p.m., and on Sunday from 8 a.m. until 4 p.m.
bmaz, kos is asking Obama to go to Arizona now.
copy-cat
hmmph. C’mon Kos. Where’s Bmaz’s link?
If not a link at least a H/T!
Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Obama’s campaign is now asking people to go to AZ and contact others.
Looks like someone read the poll numbers and thinks it might flip.
Oops, hit ’submit’ instead of blockquote.
Logan is the county official that the LA Times was talking to.
The county is also dealing with a flood of registrations and absentee ballot requests. (No machines here, except the talking ones for the visually-impaired.)
Say we give Obama Kerry states minus Ohio (a miracle if McCain wins IMHO, but bear with me).
Regardless of what the pundirts say, the “Math” is just getting to be daunting for McCain.
Say we give Obama Kerry states minus Ohio (a miracle if McCain wins IMHO, but bear with me).
We also give Obama CO, IA, NM, NV and VA (all listed as lean Obama by RealClearPolitics, Pollster and Intrade; of course except IA, which is listed strong Obama by all).
This gives Obama 270 EVs even with McCain winning PA! In order to win, McCain must sweep (west to east) ND, MO, IN, OH, PA, NC and FL, PLUS take away one of the 5 states in previous paragraph (CO, IA, NM, NV or VA).
No I am not counting my chickens, but that is a pretty daunting math (especially the part about McCain sweeping ND, MO, IN, OH, PA, NC and FL).
Those numbers are just amazing. I’ve been addicted to 538 for weeks now, and it would be easy to get overconfident. I have a statistics background and the numbers are speaking pretty loudly to me.
No overconfidence for me… I thought we’d win in 2000 and again in 2004, so I’m not taking any chances.
I’m calling after work tonight for MoveOn – calls to their members for GOTV and also find volunteers. They have a pretty cool internet widget that lets you do it from home in front of your computer at your own pace.
I early voted last Thursday in North Carolina and had an hour wait. Regionally, I am located in a small city that is roughly between Raleigh and Greensboro.
Sone things I noticed:
Pull up to the curb voting for people with handicap signs. It was very busy.
Lady, obviously a Dem behind the line barring any campaigning, handing out brochures on recommendations of who to vote for from the Dem party. Very helpful if you are not familiar with those judges and such who run with no party affiliation. No Republican doing the same while I was there.
Probably a third of the people there were African Americans, of all ages. One of the guys even had his pants waist down to the I-want-to-pull-on-them-and-see-what-happens level. Others, elderly.
One lady in line with a cane was offered a seat by poll workers while waiting her place in line and took it. Thought about telling her earlier that she could have my place in line but I was only 3 people ahead of her.
All poll workers courteous and helpful.
For me it was a great experience. I savored the moment as I proudly cast my vote for the first African American to earn the Democratic nomination. For me, it was a moment in history.
In case it matters, I am white and Christian. Take that Sarah Palin.
Replying to self. In NC, you vote seperately for Pres/VP from the rest of the ticket. You can’t just vote straight party and have this included. Poll workers explained this clearly ahead of time. If you looked at the ballot on the touch voting screen, it was perfectly clear. Vote for Pres/VP first, go to the next page and vote a straight party ticket, then go to the pages of judges and such that are non-party affiliated and choose each individually.
Fox is not the only media outlet that is “in the tank” for McPalin. Every day the Boston Herald spins the days polls to make it seem as if the race is much closer than it really is.
This business where Fox keeps saying “It’s close! It’s close!” is not innocuous keep-up-the-morale cheerleading.
They are preparing their viewers to view this as a razor-thin election that Obama stole.
That’s a tough line to sell if your viewers know that we’re headed, at the minimum, for a solid and convincing Obama win. But since Fox’s viewers are hermetically sealed away from information, by simply lying consistently that it’s close, they can prepare the stolen-election story.
There’s a reason O’Reilly shows McCain ahead. And it’s not because he’s stupid, or doesn’t know where it’s going. He’s doing it because he DOES know where this election is going.
fox and friends do have an agenda. as ew points out here, they showed a 9 point obama lead a week ago, and now it’s down to 3.
well, guess what happened in the interim? rove happened to mention that 9 points would be an uphill battle for mccain, but if he could close in as tight as a 3 point spread, he just might pull it off.
the organ grinder and his monkey.
there is a new problem with this fox scenario, though. the rest of the media is getting more bold about calling them out on it, as are the political players, especially from the obama camp. our guys will be called upon to respond to allegations on 11/5, and they’ll be ready (one hopes).
and even if fox and friends aren’t successful in planting the stolen election seed enough for 2000 redux, it will serve to delegitimize obama’s win. at least, that’s rove’s prayer.
i’m still not as worried as perhaps i might need to be, for this reason. what i’ve been watching happen with the republicans over the past several weeks – most particularly since palin – is this sort of headlong dive into chaos and self-destruction. fascinating thing, really; they’re splintered, in-fighting, and desperate. no leadership at all, no one to keep them in line and on message, and so they’re bailing out, attacking each other, and running for cover. really, truly fascinating.
most importantly, just about every single strategy they’ve attempted has not only failed, and failed spectacularly (e.g., palin, suspended campaign, negativity, voter suppression), but all too often it’s backfired in their faces.
this is the fate of those who have had power for too long, having grabbed it for all the wrong reasons and kept it through entitlement and bullying. the tables have turned and they don’t have a clue what to cling to because none of their actions were ever based on principle in the first place.
hence fox massaging the numbers to fit rove the puppet maestro’s ‘wisdom.’ fox isn’t thinking about the agenda; that’s rove’s job. they’re just doing what they’ve always done.
it just isn’t working anymore.
Thanks ew.
digg
I want to give everyone pause
remember back to bush/gore
every single network called florida and the election for gore
every one of them
but fox
fox called florida for bush, they knew something, they had to be absolutely certain to do that if they were going to go against every other network, go against every single exit poll
they knew something
and here they are, going against every single poll, saying mccain is within striking distance
here’s what’s really happening;
they know the republicans WILL be able to flip votes, purge voters, cadge and restrict voting
they KNOW they can affect the turnout
the reason they are hedging, the reason they are saying “mccain is closing” rather then “mccain is ahead” is because they don’t know if they can flip the votes enough
there is no way fox could go against all the polls unless they knew something
perris, i don’t think i agree, for the reasons in 26.
rove just uttered a little belch the other day, and they jumped in exactly the height and velocity he indicated.
i don’t think they know anything or that rove knows anything; except rove knows if it’s within the margin of error going in, they can pull another 2000 kerfluffle no matter what the results tuesday night. so he’s getting the fox stooges to make the numbers say what would create that scenario.
i don’t think it’s because rove can steal the whole election; there’s just way too much scrutiny now, the media are even watching it (however nominally), and rove does not have either the power or thus the cover to hack into one county in OH and undo a tie.
the terrain is very different this time from before, and the best they can hope for is to delegitimize by claiming the polls are closer than is the case. but look again at all this scrutiny; the numbers don’t lie. they’ll be called on any such attempts come wednesday. they can do no more this time around than create anguish and bitterness in that pathetic lower tail of the bell curve that still thinks bush is a great prez and who will vote for mccain with their guns and their bibles.
but manipulating this crew has been what they’ve banked on all along, their ‘base’. well, that base will be getting even more confused as they keep losing their homes and livelihoods due to the bush guys.
besides, rove’s days are numbered. how many cases is he now implicated in? three? four? he’ll be forced to testify in the next year or so and his cred status will take another nose dive.
take heart, dude; times they are a changin’
I have to agree with you, perris. Rove is not finished. Rove’s computer geek in 2004 when the machines were flipped was Mike Connell, who now works for McCain.
There are 2 shows on Amy Goodman’s http://www.democracynow.org/
about the rigging of the machines. The show on 10/28/08 is an interview with the author of the book, Loser Take All (forgot author’s name) which is about the methods used to steal elections. There is now a gimmick known as “the Middle Man” computer into which the votes are routed after the person votes. The flipping is done in the middle man.
Amy’s other show was 10/22/08.
Dif subject: At the Repub convention I could count only 5 persons of dark skin. I try to look for them in the clips of McCain/Palin speeches. Dark skinned persons are nearly non-existent. The early voting pictures show multitudes of black persons in the lines. So, if McCain turns out winning in those areas we will know it is Rove’s dirty work.
Compare the size of the crowds at Obama’s speeches with the consistently much smaller ones for McCain.
If Rove flips this election we voters should not just let it be as in 2000 and 2004. Those are our votes and it is we who should decide whether to fight to disclose the fraud.
The ONLY way that one could argue that Fox is correct with those numbers is if the Democrats somehow “tap themselves out” in the early voting. This could be possible if the Democrat voting enthusiasm is bimodal. That is there are two categories of Obama supporter…one that is hyper-enthusiastic…and votes early. This group would have to tap itself out. The other group would have to be totally unreliable, and not show up. Thus there can’t be a normal distribution of enthusiasm.
Conversely the McCain constituency would have to be rather odd as well. For some reason they’d have to be strangely dissassociated and not wanting to vote early, but quite enthusiastic about voting on the day of the elections.
Without any supportive evidence for odd-distributions, however, it’s far more likely that the populations are both normally distributed around the current turnout figures. Thus the Democrats will continue to turn up, even on the day of the election, disproportionate to the Republicans.
Wow, solid analysis. Concur with your conclusion too.
Further, didn’t Fox pull this same ‘the polls are wrong’ crap around the 2006 elections?
i agree; great points. nate silver covered this the other day, and suggested that the best mccain could hope for is that ALL his projected support is going to show up in 2004 numbers, BUT even if they do, the best they would bring him is ONE lousy percentage point of increase in his numbers.
and take another look at those numbers. in fact, almost all the polls right now are projecting based on LIKELY voters, which means they have voted in the general election in the past one or two cycles. that leaves out ENORMOUS numbers of young voters, not to mention newly registered voters. add to that the fact that these polls can ONLY use landline phones, and you have yourself a serious setup for UNDERestimation of obama turnout.
in fact, as i’m talking to myself about all this, i’m revising my position. rove may be hoping he can insert some incredulity into the hearts of his base, but my suspicion is increasingly that his biggest hope is that, if they can make it look closer, at least some republicans will actually show up so this won’t be a totally disastrous and embarrassing rout.
one more thing, fwiw, another reason i’m increasingly convinced these fox and rove shenanigans are not about a scheme to steal but more cya is that i read today that mitch mcconnell’s pitch to constituents to re-elect him in a really tight race is so he can work against the incoming dem trifecta (god how i love using that word in this context) of obama, pelosi, and reid.
now, to my mind, the senate minority leader does not put out something like that if there is something to be ‘known’.
these suckers are scared poopless, folks. their party is literally falling apart. they’re looking at major defections at every turn; they’re hemorrhaging, for chrissake, and the prospects are horrifying.
this shrinking margins gambit is desperate and delusional. really, that’s about all they got anymore.
for stats wonks:
http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2277
Here in WA with vote by mail, 44.6% of the ballots mailed in my county have been returned.
The Sec of State for WA predicts an 83% turnout for the state. Not sure about that, but it will be pretty high.
I voted yesterday.
Hawaii has plain vanilla “early voting:” all you have to do is go to the polling place. You don’t have to provide excuses about why you won’t be around on election day [a la Maryland] or request that a ballot be mailed to you. You just walk in, fill out a form, show your id. Clerk looks you up and gives you the option of paper or plastic, er paper ballot or electronic.
Even with a slight line, and a bunch of local elections, I was in & out in 30 minutes.
i had the same experience here in MA, though i did have to say that i would be out of town, but that was it. (fact is, i am planning to go to NH to help on monday and tuesday, but that’s now looking as necessary as campaigning in MA.)
in fact, my whole experience in new england has been amazingly different than down south, where you had to actively take the initiative to find out how and where to register. when i moved to NH almost 20 years ago, i went to the little town hall to register my car, and the lady handed me a voter registration card. simple as that. i nearly fell over!
it should be that easy everywhere, and the places where it is hard are the ones with a history of suppressing minority voters. we need all of us to take advantage of all this excitement and energy and get the many many problems wrt voting in this country corrected. now!
i’m starting with a campaign to revert to paper ballots and hand counting nationally. HANDS ON VOTING!!
spread the word.
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