The Palin Industry
I was one of the first to note that Palin’s actions suggested she was running for President in 2012 rather than VP in 2008. But that doesn’t mean I think she’d be successful. Here are my thoughts why I’m not all that worried about a Palin juggernaut in 2012.
I understand why the right has seized on Palin with such enthusiasm. They were successful with Bush because he allowed them to unify ideologically contradictory stances. Neocon imperialism and its associated crony defense capitalism is not a fiscally conservative position. Moreover, the promise of Compassionate Conservatism could only appease the charitable instincts of a lot of Conservative Christians so long. Mostly, though, Bush was only able to sustain these irreconcilable positions for five years or so by being an empty cipher–appealing to Neocons, fiscal conservatives, and Christian Conservatives–with the force of personality, thereby hiding the reality that at least one of those three groups (as it happened, fiscal conservatives and to a lesser degree, Christian Conservatives) would be ignored.
Palin is similar, only with her, the Republicans get to further obscure the emptiness of her positions with sex appeal. All the calls on Palin to lead the Republicans out of the apparent disaster they’re about to undergo are premised on the hope that she can wink and demagogue her way out of the contradictions to the claims they make.
But such hopes for Palin’s leadership are most likely to fail.
To understand why, consider first of all the two people who, in 2004, seemed poised to inherit George Bush’s mantle: Bill Frist and George Allen. Because you can no longer hide corruption, incompetence, and ugly racism, they were completely forgotten long before the primaries started. Conditions suggest that Palin’s going to meet a similar–if not worse–fate.
That’s true, first of all, because the exposure of the campaign will bring some unanticipated setbacks to her. The Alaska legislature, for example, will return to consider what to do about the legislative finding that Palin abused her power. Significantly, they may well do so after she loses badly and after Republicans lose a long-held Republican Senate seat to yet more abuse of power; with each day, the reasons Alaskan Republicans would want to protect Palin grow weaker. Then there’s the Personnel Board investigation, that looks like it will be way more serious–and critical–than Palin ever planned it would be. Just as potentially damaging to Palin, there are the other abuses of power: the free trips for her kids and the per diems which will be investigated and may well be taxed if not elevated into even bigger ethics problems. Just as likely, Palin may be taxed for her use of the $150,000 wardrobe. (Imagine Palin getting a $30,000 tax bill as her reward for running for VP!) The Palins are likely to be the target of a suit by Mike Wooten’s union if not Wooten himself and I wouldn’t be surprised if Wooten sought custody of his kids. And then there’s the possibility that further investigation of their house will reveal it was a big scam Sarah pulled on the city of Wasilla, or that the emails she has stalled on releasing will include other shockers. In short, Sarah has merely succeeded in postponing most of the repercussions that will come from the increased scrutiny until after the election–and it is by no means clear that she will escape unharmed. At the very least, her claim to be a reformer in Alaska won’t fare well.
Then there’s the fact that she’s got at least two more years as governor before 2012–and there is no evidence that she is any more competent at governing than George Bush. So long as oil prices remain where they are, she’s going to have a difficult time meeting the increased needs of an inflation-wracked Alaska. She almost certainly will continue to break her promises on spending cuts. And the only way she will be able to deliver on her thus far premature promise of a natural gas pipeline project is if she gets cozy with the oil companies she likes to claim she has taken on. So the three claims on which she ran this time–that she was a fiscal conservative, that she had taken on the oil companies and succeeded in "building" a pipeline, and that she is a reformer–will no longer be operative in 2012.
Finally, there’s the fact that she is unliked by a majority of the country. Her favorability ratings are negative in most polls. She was persistently accused–even by the media–of being a shameless liar. And with WardrobeGate and YouTubes of her appearances, she is a national laughingstock. Sure, Republicans might ignore her unpopularity. The Neocons and Christianist Industry leaders who would like to make a project of her may convince the party to embrace her anyway (indeed, that seems to be the goal of the post-election frenzy they’ve got planned). But they’re fighting an up-hill battle because he brand is already ruined. I hope they spend a lot of energy investing in that brand rather than focusing on–say–Bobby Jindal or Charlie Crist. But I suspect they’re committed to doing so because she excites them sexually, and not out of any rational assessment of whether she’s the person to lead the party out of minority status.
So, in spite of all the frenzy surrounding Sarah right now, I doubt she’ll be leading the party in four years. I’ll do a follow-up on where I think they’ll end up going. But for now, at least, Palin’s concerns have to be on the immediate future, not four years from now.
If 9/11 hadn’t happened, Bush would have been a one-termer (my opinion) because the whole country would have caught on to his empty-headed know-nothing frat-boy epic-fail persona (like they have for the last two years).
Due to our post-9/11 national psychosis, that reaction was delayed X years.
Palin is the exact same mix of arrogant frat-boy know-nothingness, mixed in with the lack of introspection necessary to get it that she’s in WAY over her head.
Please Republicans, please please make her your leader.
If you remember, his favorables were already tanking and then 9/11 happened. Sadly, it took close to 5 years for people to wake the hell up. Thankfully a lot of people woke up. We’ll see if Ohio really has or not though.
I think we stand a better chance to win VA and CO than winning OH. Lucky for us, that will be enough, assuming PA holds (in which Obama still has either high single or double digit leads).
Yes I believe you’ve got that right.
And if Palin goes back to AK as a looser, I suspect she will reap the rewards from the GOB (Good Ole Boys), on whom she has trodden…for the American system punishes loosers.
never underestimate fundies in love
I beg to disagree — unless you think Palin thinks they are going to lose this election. The team with the
bestmost computers is going to win this election. Now the Republicans know they don’t have the popular support of the country, but they do control the voting systems in most of the swing states. Exit polls don’t count, it is the number that comes out of the black box. Palin literally believes that Jesus will intervene to help her win. This is why the base loves her. She does not need to be “filtered” by the media. The base recognizes Palin’s use of language, symbols, and emoticons. They will try to do everything in their power to stop Obama. Before and after. Just ask Joe the Plumber. I remember we had plumbers in 1972. Plumbers know that shit flows downhill and that they have to wash their hands.http://www.truthdig.com/avboot…..ting_lies/
Care to count who controls what state? Let’s just look at Governors–but this holds up at the SOS level to a large degree:
PA: Dem
VA: Dem
CO: Dem
NV: Rep
FL: Rep–albeit one who just made a pro-voter, pro-Democratic move
NM: Dem
IA: Dem
NH: Dem
OH: Dem
IN: Rep
MN: Rep
WI: Dem
MI: Dem
NC: Rep
To a large degree, this race is down to PA, VA, and CO. All three with Dem Governors.
I like the list. But ratfuckers can hide anywhere.
OT, but this is up at the Guardian and ought to warm the heart of bmaz and AZ Matt and others who lurk around these parts, so hope it’s okay if I leave this link:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl…..ohnmccain1
Goooooo bmaz and all you AZers.
I guess there are redeeming qualities to Sun Devils ;-))
One can hope that McCain gets his goose cooked here in Arizona.
Whether Prop 8 wins or loses in California, it’s a PR disaster for the LDS Church. There are sure to be ripple effects on Mitt Romney’s (all but declared) run in 2012.
what ever happened to charlie’s fiance ???
jindal might work, cept for exorcism and stuff. Nobody likes the spanish inquisition, even if the they expect it
the money boys might try mittens and his kittens again
looks like rudy will stay critically dead
so that leaves the huckleberry and ron paul
I’m assuming jeb ain’t that stupid …
what else the repuglitards got ???
and the fundies LOVE princess pandora
I could see three or four different leaders in the repuglitard party in 2012, all leading in different directions
the newtster might come back in style, the bugman ain’t crushed yet, and I ain’t positive that the repuglitards don’t base their votes on who throws the best hissy fit
it’s really hard to predict who a bunch of batshit insane people will pick as their leader
but I think princess pandora has the talents needed to lead the repuglitards into the abyss
For now, Charlie’s wedding is still set for December 12.
Palin could have a big future in televangelism.
My money’s on the final battle coming down to Huckabee vs. Romney. I think they’ll abandon Crist and blame him for losing Florida to Obama by not pushing the ACORN story and then extending the early voting hours. Charlie cooked his own goose this week.
Charlie will survive. They will find themselves like 1980 dems whose only recourse is the center, and by opening the polls Charlie sealed his fate a a survivor in a Democratic world.
Agree with you there, drational. Don’t know if it’ll catapalt Charlie into national prominence (though by then he’ll have been married 4 years). But there’s a big desire for a return of the moderate Republican, and Crist is well-situated to play to that faction.
I think their comeback kid will be Romney.
I think lieberman jumps ship, be comes a republican and he will be their candidate
that’s IF they are smart enough to toss the theo-crats
can they toss the theo-crats?
I don’t know but I believe that is the only prayer the republicans will have if they want power back in this generation
How old will he be by then? Won’t he be well into geezer-dom?
dood, I want some of what you’re smokin
joezoe tortureman ???
the repuglitard presnitential candidate ???
did you hear about the hissy fit the hard right threw when mcsame wanted loserman as veep
One Is A Lonely Number
joezoe is gonna learn that
I think there is a significant possibility of more soap operatic revelations about her family life as well. Not so much in the “Who is Trig’s mother?” sense as in, “What on earth is Todd doing sitting in the governor’s chair?”
What was revealed by the Branchflower report about Todd’s doings from the earliest days of her governorship suggests that there may be some real creepiness in their relationship. Not only his attempts to exercise governmental power, apparently with her blessing, but the fact that he was always there, in cabinet meetings, in her office when she was away, and now apparently continuously on the road with her. I’m wondering if you don’t have a possessive, controlling personality in Todd who has almost certainly has left more evidence, probably in those emails, of extreme overreach to which she has acquiesced (I’d not be surprised to find that there’s some emotional abuse there, no matter how assertively she presents herself in public).
If more emerges along those lines it will be impossible for Repubs to insist that it be treated as a private matter, in large part because of their sexualization of her public persona. If she’s going to be the fantasy mistress of the Rich Lowrys of the world, then the country will insist on discussing the dirty secrets of her marriage.
How could I have forgotten the soap opera!?!?!?!
I agree.
Mostly, though, I’ve got a private bet with myself that Bristol doesn’t end up marrying her hockey drop-out.
Mostly, though, I’ve got a private bet with myself that Bristol doesn’t end up marrying her hockey drop-out.
Me too — I hope that tattoo Levi got on his ring finger was a temporary…
You mean the henna one?
This is the second post today where I have to say “Jinx”.
The election is not yet over.
45% of Alaska is still willing to vote for Stevens AFTER his seven felony convictions.
If not Sarah, They will embrace another winger.
Bush was not, after all, a “true conservative”; they deserve a chance to show how they can rule.
If Obama wins, there will still be 45% of the population who voted against him and another 10% who remain susceptible to confusion.
I am afraid the fat lady has not sung, nor will she for a while.
and there is always the possibility that the repuglitards could unfuckup their thinkin thingies and go sane on us …
It COULD HAPPEN
ok, maybe not …
OT Fed judge now considering reinstating purged voter lists on rolls here in CO
You laid this case out beautifully, EW. Kudos, as usual.
I would simply add two thoughts. Attitudes are hard to change. And the Dem bloggers in particular did a super job of laying out all the legal and ethical warts associated with SP in addition to framing the Trophy aspect, the bimbo brain, the expenses spent on her “appearance,” etc. I agree that the negative attitudes will be very hard to change – because of cognitive dissonance. We’ll tend to see anything she does within the framework we already have, the jokes about her, the videos on the internet. And it would take a huge, huge stretch for our framework to change. I don’t think they can manage it. (But it’s due to cognitive dissonance as well that the far right who are enthralled by her will be unwilling to give up their own idealized image – unrealistic as it may be.)
My second thought is related to “shame.” I’m guessing that Alaskans have been powerfully embarrassed by seeing their governor exposed as a fake, a fraud, a grifter. She has shamed Alaska. And many people will react to that with anger. They will shame her back by digging into everything you’ve mentioned (and more) and then either indicting her, recalling her, impeaching her or simply hounding her from office. I’d count on the that sense of vicarious and undeserved shame on the part of Alaskans to be vented on her with a fury. (Again, some people may powerfully resist reality and maintain an idealized view of her, but most will shift to anger and a sense that she has to now pay a price.)
Just a couple of guesses. Which fortify your case. In addition, I’m pretty sure many of us will keep a very vigilant eye on Alaska and the fate of SP. And make sure the already existing negative frame remains in the public eye. That should nail the coffin shut after Alaska does its spade work.
Don’t know about shame. But something else I forgot was the loss of the House seat, as Young is polling significantly behind, too.
I just think losing all your power in the state might have a way of clarifying things for AK Republicans for the same reason it was so easy for Palin to take down Murkowski.
Talk about other rethug losses
http://www.progressnowaction.o…..st/al/CQ8t
I would add that Bush “succeeded” in large part because he opened the Treasury, taxpayers’s wallets, to all comers — Capitol Hill, Lobbyists, defense [sic] industries, and newly engorged privatization specialists. He spent wildly money he neither had nor intended to raise (a character trait displayed his entire life). That included raiding the Treasury by way of sharply cutting the taxes owed by those most able to pay them, himself and Cheney included, thus “sharing the wealth”, but only among a small coterie while the serfs, as ever, toil in the field. The Treasury’s tapped out and that spending-as-sole leadership strategy will no longer work.
I think that’s the principle trait that substituted for Bush’s inability to do, and Cheney’s disdain for, what LBJ did constantly. Trade horses. He was a master at it, constantly digging dirt and manipulating frailty and ambition, not to horde and destroy, as Cheney does, but to use in constant, heated, largely successful negotiations to advance his policy agenda. It’s what passed civil rights legislation, on the good side, and drew us deeper into Vietnam, on the bad.
Cheney accomplished his agenda by dominating Bush’s weak ego and by bludgeoning his opponents, thereby also scaring into silent cooperation his erstwhile opponents. Waging constant war assured that he (and his band of brothers) remained wealthy and essential to the state, not a constitutional non-entity, a resource useful by not being used. Bush? He thinks all that’s required to be a good president is to raise money, but only for partisans, to empower payback, and to throw out baseballs.
More OT: check out this slideshow of Bethune-Cookman students voting on Monday.
You can Digg it,too.
one trait that adherents to both parties seem to exhibit is the focus on the negatives of the others, but failing to note the negatives of their own party that need to be addressed… so much of politics today is painting the other out to be surrounded by problems, with political advertising having a special role in all of this.. i don’t see any of this changing any time soon… will people get fed up with it? some will, but the majority will accept what they hear and read about in the major media outlets… until every one of the last minute smears are addressed directly, stuff like this is going to continue and the usa is going to be a divided country due the type of politics it has cultivated.
Do you have any speculation on why the McCain campaign advertised a win PA strategy when it makes no sense (other than the lack of early voting there)?
It seems trying to capitalize on Murtha’s comments with Ashley Todd was the extent of their strategy here.
No, it makes sense on many levels.
First, McCain had to make an argument that would keep donors on board, so it had to add up to 270. PA lets him do that with one state, whereas CO and NM and NV and so on doesn’t–this looks more doable. Plus, it is true that polls close in PA at the end, so it’ll be about a 4-5 point race. I think McCain has SOME basis he’s using to claim there will be a Bradley affect in PA (though it may admittedly be only the primary results). There are parts of Philly that are really racist, so they might be able to nick into Philly amounts (while ignoring they’re not winning by as much in Pennsyltucky). Plus, PA is one of the oldest states (you’ll note he’s still trying in IA which is also an older state).
And finally, and very importantly, PA doesn’t have early voting. So if he does turn it around in the national trackers and it takes a few days to adjust at the state level (note, the F&M poll that came out today is a few days old), then it might help in PA.
Of course, by then, VA and CO will have already voted in substantial part, so it’ll be too late to win them. Ditto NC.
I think it also must step back to the single day voting in PA. They must have some scam they are selling that has to do with voter fraud or acorn or some other hack they will perpetrate to slow down voting or otherwise stop the expected turnout. No early voting means susceptibility to the coordinated Drudge-Fox- Mcacin racialist crap. Face Carving was an enthusiastic nose-poke over the edge, but they must have some other confidence operation…..
IMHO.
Maybe they’re thinking that because it’s a single day vote the polls in the urban areas are going to be impossible to vote at with a heavy turnout…so that their voters who are in the less impacted suburbs and rural areas will vote more easily. They are hoping that Obama voters will see the huge lines… think “this is in the bag, and I don’t want to stand in line” and go home.
Now that might sound logical on its surface…but there are some flaws. But it might convince someone not willing to put the numbers down on paper.
In addition, isn’t there a form of early voting in PA. It’s called the absentee ballot.
maybe they picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue
joaquin phoenix quits acting
am I havin a GOOD day, or what ???
Rick Sanchez at CNN about to do a little expose on Palin and socialism
EW – you forgot the other reason she’ll be unable to get the Repugs to follow her in 2012: by then, her looks will have faded, and the Lowrys of this world will no longer be interested. Her winking will be a sad specatacle, not an excitement.
Cold and harsh, true. But IMHO no less an accurate prediction.
As to the commenters upthread talking about Todd the Emotional Controller/Abuser running her life and always being there: look at Palin’s dad. He was behind the whole shoot-a-moose-on-someone-else’s-permit thing that Wooten got dragged into, saying that if Wooten didn’t, he would take his (other) daughter’s permit and do it himself. No one has really looked at Dad and the way he treats his family. But, from watching Sarah the daughter and the way she plays to men (esp. older men, like Kristol and the other wingers), I think Daddy was quite the emotional abuser (or worse) and Sarah (the pretty one, no doubt) elided/coped by learning to twist him around her finger. There also was that campaign leak earlier in the week about how she’s a diva and unable to trust anyone (outside her family). Well, last time I checked, an adult’s inability to trust is a hallmark of having been abused as a child.
It would not surprise me one bit if, after all is said and done, she winds up in a cell down the hall (in the womens’ wing) from Stevens. That house construction business has “trouble” written all over it.
I have a different prediction at to the Republican Candidate in 2012, General David Petraeus. Rick Atkinson, when he was embedded with the 101Airborne got Petraeus to admit that he had political aspirations, and that they are right wing Republican, Military Industrial Complex sort of aspirations. So first quality — serious aspirations.
Petraeus has a command to Central Command that should be good for four years, but what we don’t know is whether he will “get on” with Obama as Commander in Chief, and Gates and whoever comes after Gates. He’s been asked to redesign Afghanistan — deal with Pakistan, and of course organize an exit from Iraq. One can easily imagine grave differences of opinion about all this that would set up a clash between Obama and Petraeus that results in Petraeus leaving his command and the army. In fact we could almost say Bush set this up as a trap. Josh Marshall had an ad up for a book to this effect this week — that Petraeus pulls a MacArthur — I rather think not, I think a winning Republican looks a lot more like Ike, who compared to Mac was a cool cucumber.
Apparently Petraeus is a control freak and a right wing authoritarian of a high order — just the kind of personality that appeals to Republicans, and allows them to unite their factions. Sarah is probably ancient history by 2012 — She could be defeated in 2010 running for re-election, or she could try to run for the congressional seat likely then to be held by a Democrat — and lose. Or she could be done in by one or all of EW’s investigations and just crawl out of office in 2010.
The structure of the Right is such that it is the Corporate side that has the money for a decent candidacy — it is the religious side that can supply votes and campaign workers. But there is a built in problem with the religious right doing what the netroots has done this year — major league supply of money for candidates and campaigns. The Preachers would see a huge conflict of interest in that kind of fund raising with their own interests in supporting all the Mega Churches. (By the way most of the Mega Churches are very heavily mortgaged, and for a couple of years Wall Street has had a warning up on any additional lending without strong collatoral. Some of the big Ministries may well go bankrupt sooner or later. They don’t have denominational resources backing them, and they don’t have deep endowments.) Given this — I don’t think Sarah could be very successful raising the kind of money a 2012 campaign would require.
So I hope Obama smartly deals with Petraeus.
I think that they’re PLANNING on running Patraeus, but I don’t think he’s going to be a viable candidate. He’s tied to two nasty wars right now, and neither one is going to look better in four years. If you think America is fed up with wars now, imagine how they’re going to feel in four more years.
Sara is right; I have been saying the same thing for a couple or months now (as has she; I remember this discussion some time back). It is Petraeus in 2012. Personally, I think they thought about him for this election, but didn’t want to burn him up. The set up for 2012 is beautiful though. Surge hero, will have helped Obama end the war, will have been Supreme Allied Commander, the GOP will have put distance between itself and Bush, they can carp about the four years of Democratic rule. don’t think for a second that it all cannot be packaged all nice and shiny, and Petraeus will suck up to the fundies with a blank slate, and away the whole juggernaut is back in action. Don’t laugh, it is coming to a theater near you in four short years.
And bmaz has mostly persuaded me. Not entirely, but if bmaz and Sara are ganging up against me, I’ll have to reconsider again.
what about petraus being a lickspittle toady suckup ???
was that how the guy put it ???
the toady-suckup quote isn’t as bad as the “stupidest fucking guy on the planet” quote, but I don’t think petraus gets to run against douggie
Hmmm. I seem to be wildly outnumbered, but I just don’t see it happening. He’s in charge of Afghanistan now, and there really aren’t any good outcomes there. If we get Osama on his watch, then maybe he’ll come out of this okay, but otherwise, he’ll be (at best) remembered as the guy who fought Afghanistan to a stalemate. His “success” with the surge won’t last until 2012, since there’s almost no scenario in which Iraq isn’t a complete hellhole by then. Besides, the candidate with the most military experience has lost in the last four Presidential elections. (With the only caveat being that Al Gore didn’t really lose in 2000.) HW Bush, Dole, and Kerry were all war heroes, and the most it got any of them was a Viagra sponsorship.
I’m with Frank. Surely even they are smart enough to know that the “ass-kissing little chickenshit” is Bush’s Boy and we will be able to keep making that connection over and over in any election. McCain had lots of praise for him, too, so in a sense he’s doubly contaminated.
I don’t think so. Obama isn’t going to punt him, which means Patraeus then becomes bi-partisan. He also isn’t seen by most people as the cause of the bad wars, rather as the guy trying to clean them up. I don’t think he gets tainted nearly as bad by Iraq and Afghanistan as you and Frank do. I am not saying he will win, I just think that is the best plan the GOP has, and I think the smart people, to the extent there are such, are already plotting just this.
I think your last point is exactly right. Karl Rove, for example, prides himself on his long-term thinking. There are many other who do too. Many of them must have given up on McCain long ago, certainly after he picked Palin, and started planning for 2012.
Obama, they think, will be vulnerable. He’s untried, so the story goes, though McCain has never managed anything more complex than a single training base (not a ship, a fleet or a navy) and the drinking schedules of CongressCritters (as Navy lobbyist and CongressCritter himself), which makes his ads criticizing Obama’s lack of executive experience so false. Obama “will be tested”, absolutely. He’s also more likely than McCain to prevail. Most of all, BushCheney have left mountains of manure to clean up. For sure, one of their strategies will be to claim that Obama, while trying to clean some of it up, actually dropped it all.
Like an Indiana Jones competitor, the GOP’ers are very good in opposition. For one thing, it doesn’t require running anything. That allows them to attack those who do run things. But the histories of the Heritage Foundation and other neocon think tanks make clear that they are capable of much more. Progressives don’t need to copy Karl’s tactics. They do need to get their most committed and their wealthiest members to adopt similar long-term strategies.
isn’t kkkarl backing princess pandora in 2012 ???
i though rover’s minion was princess pandora’s favorite handler
and there is this:
Iraq was a part of kkkarl’s long term thinking, so don’t suppose that “long term” means “smart” thinking
Without Bush, a tired horse Karl rode for two decades, he’ll be looking for candidate clients. He seems to prefer the spaghetti-on-the-wall approach. Some of his boys may push Palin, but she won’t be the only candidate. Rove will have a team looking for multiple winners, some of whom are likely to compete with each other. And he’s not alone in doing that.
I suspect Rove’s business model in that regard is the late Mark McCormack and his IMG (formerly, International Management Group). He invented big-time sports agency, starting with golf (e.g., Palmer, Player, and Nicklaus), then tennis, now most sports. Take Wimbledon. He made money from most of the players, from the tournament (from champagne to strawberries ‘n cream to autographs, advertising, broadcasting, clothing and sponsorships), from managing players’ money, from getting them out of trouble, ad nauseum. Substitute politician for pro sports player and there you go.
To illustrate the Mark McCormack business model that I think will drive the de facto Karl Rove Enterprises, LLC, though the stakes are higher than whether Arnold, Nick, Tiger, Rod, Bjorn, or Chrissie made money:
http://www.independent.co.uk/n…..30303.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new…..rmack.html
was that it ???
doesn’t quite have the resonance of “The Stupidest Fucking Guy On The Planet”, but it works for me
we’re talking about a quote from a superior officer (and a higher ranking one) right ???
and I’m giving free advice
don’t think of the repuglitard party as a monolith
you can’t have a monolith in 4 parts (fundies, fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, and the money boys)
pick a faction, promote your leader, plant your flag
and pray for lots of injuries …
“Hmmm. I seem to be wildly outnumbered, but I just don’t see it happening. He’s in charge of Afghanistan now, and there really aren’t any good outcomes there. If we get Osama on his watch, then maybe he’ll come out of this okay, but otherwise, he’ll be (at best) remembered as the guy who fought Afghanistan to a stalemate. His “success” with the surge won’t last until 2012, since there’s almost no scenario in which Iraq isn’t a complete hellhole by then. Besides, the candidate with the most military experience has lost in the last four Presidential elections. (With the only caveat being that Al Gore didn’t really lose in 2000.) HW Bush, Dole, and Kerry were all war heroes, and the most it got any of them was a Viagra sponsorship.”
I don’t think we know how either Afghanistan or Iraq look four years from now — nor can anyone predict Pakistan. The Government might get offed in a suicide bombing you know. Some nut might steal a nuke from inventory, and set it off at rush hour in Mumbia. I suspect something like this is more likely than not — which makes how the US Central Command looks a few months or a few years down the pike a very iffy prediction.
But I think the effort over the past year by Bush to make Petraeus into Military Boy Genius, to puff him up as the answer to everything except why Swiss Cheese has holes, is all about positioning him for a post-Bush Political Role. All you have to do is engineer a situation where Petraeus resigns his commission and retires over an Obama Command Decision with which he disagrees on principle and you will be off and running with the campaign of 2012. Nothing but a trap.
Cutting him off at the pass (an old American Frontier Military Tactic) might work if it is done adroitly. (Move On — leave it alone). On another comment here, I suggested Richard Holbrooke (or someone like him) as lead diplomat in relationship with Pakistan and Afghanistan — he is the kind of heavy hitter who could accomplish the necessary, and at the same time deal with the still weak government both Pakistan and Afghanistan have on offer. At the same time, someone like this would know how to use opportunity to cut off at the pass when the opportunity presents himself. The trap Bush has laid is most obvious — the point is to let it snag THEM, and not our side.
Don’t forget Spencer thinks so too.
Oh – and telling Tina Fey you’ll have preggers Bristol babysit Tina’s kid backstage at SNL? Not helpful.
Really not helpful. Why would the brilliant Ms. Fey entrust her child to another child that has demonstrated her lack of judgment, her preference for short-term gain at the expense of long-term consequences? Maybe in a few years, if and when she acquires experience and better judgment, but not now the sort of caretaker a responsible parent would choose.
EW,
From TPMuckraker One of your favorite topics – DOJ:
They do have a sense of humor over there.
Actually, Margolis may well have integrity. Remember, he’s the one Comey put in charge of Fitz during he investigation. ANd he was fairly straight up–but mostly out of the loop–in USA Purge.
The ads at the top of the page suggest that I should “Surprise her with a bigger penis” Does this refer to Palin who’s picture has FAIL across it?
OT
Here is another case of a US Attorney filing a criminal complaint against a state senator exactly one week before an election. The strength of the evidence against Wilkerson notwithstanding, has DOJ taken a new position on its policy of not filing indictments so close to elections?
Here is the criminal complaint PDF.
My take: Both McCain & Palin know their public days are numbered. Self-delusion wears thin with age and exhustion. The camoflauge is coming off both candidates. McCain is not who he purports to be. The cover-ups in his life may never be broadcast as broadly as the Sarah-Come-Lately, there are too many vested interests within the conservative movement. But whisper campaigns of truth will settle in and mover and shaker republicans will politely shun and try to forget, deflectly righteous anger onto Palin up there. Todd (who may or may not be running her show in the paternalistic evangelical worst tradition) won’t last long either. Scam artists both.
I suspect McCain will lose this election because of the people’s will but also because the Rovians have taken stock and will not waste their herculean machinations of electoral corruption on this round- too chancy, better to keep them unexposed for the next election when we will be complacent and proud of our hard work. Besides Rovians are going to need all their energy to prevent change. Can’t waste it on lost causes. However they will work something out to save face for McConnell (sp?), a few others, and avoid the clarity of a landslide….
If I am wrong and they screw us from inside the machines to the extent that it changes the winner… we are in real trouble…can’t go there now…bad enough Petraeus might be in the picture
Anyway, I think McCain and Palin will be unimportant soon. But the line will form.
This is off-topic, but this seems the best forum to get the answer. WHAT HAPPENED IN THE TOM DELAY TRIAL??
Did he get off??
Delay was a guest on Tweety today 5-6 PM ET. Tweety tried to give him enough rope but the hammer was too smart to say something indefensible. The hammer was devastatingly brutal repeating all of the shit they’re throwing at Barack. Debbie Wasserman Schultz came on after and moped up. Hammer made my blood pressure rise.
Palin is totally clueless.
She knows that she will not be VP,
But, she actually thinks that the GOP would consider her as some sort of political leader. She actually believes the McCain campaign ads that she is more than an empty headed 3rd rate beauty queen.
I don’t think anybody has the heart to let her know what a doofus she really is. Maybe, someone in Alaska will give her a clue when she goes back to eating mooseburgers and keeping on eye on the Russkies.
I understand the bookies are quoting Obama at 1:14 to 1:10, and McCain at 6:1. They’re reading the handwriting on the wall. (Seen in a comment at TPM)
I think the Lowrys of the world will still see her as “eminently fuckable”, so that won’t keep her out. But I suspect that her second daughter will be pregnant by then, and there will doubtless be a number of other ethical scandals that pop up.
Well done, Marcy.
My guess is she will be a fiercely negative force for a period, then go down like Joe McCarthy.
Check out http://www.squidoo.com/sairypalin for a satirical poem about her.
With you. Enough of Sarah
but we can never have enough of Sara
what a difference a letter makes …
and I got a question, why did that Obama infomercial look a lot like an episode of Family Guy on the faux affiliate here in central Cali ???
Scott HOrton goes where most will not go. Too busy with pig on a lipstick, Joe the Plumber
http://antiwar.com/radio/2008/10/25/grant-f-smith/
Michigan RoboCall – listen
Totally on topic, check out the most current post over at Atrio’s place:
God, I can’t wait for the tell-all book!
And a H/T to Andrew Sullivan for:
And meanwhile, here’s Margaret and Helen:
Margaret and Helen
Best Friends for Sixty Years and Counting…
Made my day!
I think the mentioning of sarah becomming a candidate in 0h twelve has become a laughing point.
that’s the one she initiated herself to get out of the first one, right?
when is that one due?
on topic, check out this youtube
according to wolfy, the mccain team is livid palin is “looking ahead to oh twelve rather”
I am gonna buy stock in pop corn
some other points to ponder
the freepers who most hated Hillary were some of her biggest fans in the Democratic Primaries
the freepers are not the most consistent bunch of goobers
their hatred of Hillary mirrors their love of princess pandora
look for the freepers to support princess pandora for the reverse of the same reasons they supported
Isn’t the mccain campaign angst with Crist’s adding voting hours in Florida an admission that they engage/support voter supression??
since it didn’t play at 5:00 on the local channels, I went lookin for Obama’s program
it’s running at 7:00 on one channel, and at 8:00 on another
and hey, it’s running on one of the Spanish channels at 8:00 too
yeah, I said ONE OF the Spanish channels …
ain’t Americans great
Rachel Maddow reports that 3% of people who HAVE ALREADY VOTED do not know who they voted for
this could be a good sign. I mean, COME ON, you’re gonna try an convince me these people AIN’T mouth breathers ???
they can’t remember who they voted for, we ain’t talkin MENSA candidates here
the whole 3% coulda had a moment of clarity in the booth
a moment of unfuckedupedness ???
a flash of genius
a brain fart …
hey Philly, the riot starts in 3, 2, 1 …
Obama palls around with Palestinian terrorists funded by john mcsame
how can you argue with obtuseness like that ???
I HEART PRINCESS PANDORA
Palin is toast. She’s burned too many Bridges to Somewhere: to thinking women; to real conservatives; to all minorities; to her and McCain’s staffs; and to her competitors, their staffs and supporters. Romney, I think, has revealed that he’s more of a chameleon than McCain. He’ll also be tainted by his wealth and likely forthcoming revelations about the machinations of the financial industry and the cost to bail them (if not middle America) out. After the Mormon campaign for Prop 8 in California, and their likely role in opposing other progressive social causes, he will find his Mormon background a serious liability.
No one else this cycle has a prayer, especially the fundy-based candidates. Their supporters are likely to retreat into paranoia and victimhood, revealing their odious political extremism to a needful public looking instead for talented, balanced leadership that is willing to tell them what’s really what and to help deal with it.
I think that leaves Petraeus. If Obama doesn’t make him Army chief of staff or chair of the joint chiefs, I think he’ll retire by the end of 2009 and work on his political platform from a think [sic] tank, foundation or university. He’ll want to get out before the merde from our wars really hits the public fan. Unlike McCain or Obama, he will claim to have had real experience managing global resources, making life and death decisions, tasking our global intelligence community “to find our enemies”, negotiating with our friends and opposing our fiercest enemies.
He comes from a narrow, martial perspective, however, despite his brilliant academic background. Unless oil is over $200/bl., we’re in more wars, or have had another major domestic terrorist incident, I don’t think he’ll get far. We will be bogged down with the domestic economy, implementing national healthcare, paying for the consequences of our past foreign wars and trashed alliances.
Obama is also as bright and as balanced as they come. Like Clinton, he can read and digest mountains of data and integrate it into intelligent decisions. Bush’s caricatured understanding to the contrary, that’s what serious CEO’s do every day. He knows how to prioritize, and he’ll hire good thinkers and managers and bureaucratic infighters. He’s unlikely to leave himself seriously vulnerable in his re-election bid.
His most serious flaw, possibly of Shakespearean proportions, is that he may be unwilling to weed out the latent menaces, the booby-traps of people, regulations and laws, that Bush and Cheney will leave behind. That is, no doubt, the GOP’s hope, though we can count on them having several other ways to win, many of them championed by a by then very wealthy Karl Rove. All I can say is let’s find out. Here’s to an Obama win.
If Petraeus is and will be the only one…how bereft can a party be and still call itself a part? But they will still have the will to game the voting machines.
above I mean: call itself a party.
“If Petraeus is and will be the only one…how bereft can a party be and still call itself a part? But they will still have the will to game the voting machines.”
My rough historical model for this is the politics that led a Republican Party that was clearly in love with the right, to pick Ike in 1952 over Mr. Republican, Robert Taft — but to also require Ike to trash his own mentor, George Marshall, as part of the price of power.
The Republicans didn’t win in 48 as expected with Tom Dewey, so at their private townhouse meeting in the wake of defeat, they listened to their business crowd who had become friendly golfing and bridge playing partners with “the General” — and they scripted out how to make him into an acceptable Republican. First, the presidency of Columbia and some civilian suits, then Baptism in the Presbyterian Church (Ike’s family actually were Jehovah’s Witness — not an acceptable Republican Religion.) He made a little money with Corporate Directorships, and then Truman, distressed with the build up, asked Ike to go back into Uniform and become the first SACUER of NATO. Eventually he had to agree to run when the DRAFT IKE crowd moved into the New Hampshire Primary. And then he had to defeat the Taft wing of the party — and then on to the WH. The details will be different, perhaps the order a little different, but this IKE move is in their playbook, worked once, why not try it again? Big difference, Ike won a huge war — Petraeus not such a laurel leaf crowned warrior.
I heard someone recently talk about a scene where Petraeus was giving Obama a military briefing, loaded with graphics and documents. Petraeus was used to ’snowing’ bush with these kinds of presentations and expected Obama to roll over. According to the narrator, which might have been Biden, said Obama reacted from the ‘gut’ to Petraeus saying that if he is elected president, he (Obama) would be making the strategic decisions and determining the course to be taken. He would not leave those decisions to the military. Petraeus backed off with a, “Yes, Sir.”
“I heard someone recently talk about a scene where Petraeus was giving Obama a military briefing, loaded with graphics and documents. Petraeus was used to ’snowing’ bush with these kinds of presentations and expected Obama to roll over. According to the narrator, which might have been Biden, said Obama reacted from the ‘gut’ to Petraeus saying that if he is elected president, he (Obama) would be making the strategic decisions and determining the course to be taken. He would not leave those decisions to the military. Petraeus backed off with a, “Yes, Sir.””
Yes, I’ve heard a very similar story that was about their discussion during Obama’s summer tour in Iraq. Apparently Obama made it pretty clear to him that Strategic Decisions were actually made by and with the President, and not simply briefed as all wrapped up decision papers.
But we’ve know this about Bush for years — O’Neill’s “no policy process in the White House” statements early on — and then everything in Woodward’s four volumes, Packer, Tom Ricks, and recently Barton Gellman’s “Angler” — all pile on the piss poor quality of Bush’s participation in any true presidential decision process. Just not really engaged in any detail at all, not engaged in any argument about alternatives or options. Bush can’t really participate in discussion about strategy because he doesn’t have the tolerance for working through the detail on which decent strategy is built.
so you can make a decent repuglitard out of a general, but you can’t make a decent general out of a repuglitard ???
Jane Mayer on Democracy Now
http://www.democracynow.org/20…..siders_how
Jane Mayer on “The Insiders: How John McCain Came to Pick Sarah Palin”
Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin has cast herself as an antidote to the elitist culture inside the Beltway. But a new article from New Yorker reporter Jane Mayer says Palin’s sudden rise to prominence owes more to members of the Washington elite than her rhetoric has suggested. [includes rush transcript]
people used to think cocaine was the antidote for opium addiction …
Yes, it was. William Fallon said it (and is now retired).
Word is that there is a meeting of influencial republican leaders at a private home in Wash,DC next Thursday to begin discussion of rebuilding the republican party. Will palin be there??? Will she break down the door to get in???
that’s where “Joe The Plumber’s” bullet head and lack of a neck are gonna come in handy
ladles and jellyspoons, I give you “Joe The Battering Ram”
Hey all, Let’s just not be looking forward just yet. This can wait for the 5th. I made calls to dems tonight to get them to early voting.
The republicans are floating the Bradley factor as a preemptive explaination for all the votes they plan to steal, and they plan to steal a boatload.
No more looking forward. Find some way to help push this thing across the line, give a down ticket candidate some money, make some calls for Obama or for your local party operation, sighn up to drive elderly or disabled to the polls.
The time now is for work, not speculating what that wortless POS Palin is going to do for the next four years. The task at hand is making sure SHE has to worry about what to do for the next four years.
We ain’t done yet. Get crackin’
“Hey all, Let’s just not be looking forward just yet. This can wait for the 5th. I made calls to dems tonight to get them to early voting.”
Well, today I received via E-Mail the times and dates on the 5th for the official DFL Educational Foundation — group analysis with coffee cakes and beer meet-up’s. One at Humphrey Institute, another at a coffee house. Twill be attending. Everyone has their own rituals with elections. Mine include voting early, taking a nap in the afternoon so as to stay up and awake all night, and before nap and after voting, I always scrub the kitchen floor on hands and knees with stiff brush, and put on a coat of polish. An election requires a very clean kitchen floor. My Mother used to do the same thing. Extra time? Do some ironing. You need a not so much hard thinking job so you can “think” but not get totally charged up with bad dreams.
Apparently only 2% around here are uncertain whether they will vote, might change their vote, or are really undecided. The campaigns know who these people are, and they have thousands of volunteers ready to get them to the polls. We either have this thing won cold, or this is a country of liars. It is all over except the voting and counting.
With you. Palin in 2012 can wait
Catching up late. EW from your mouth to God’s and everybody’s ear. Please let’s worry about the comers like Jindal and not the jailbait like Palin, whose pales in comparison to their solid threat.
Hopefully Sarah and the first dud, ‘er dude, whatever, will go back to Alaska and build snowmen and we won’t ever hear from them again.
In 4 years, in addition to her not looking so mavericky, Sarah won’t be as cute! Check a few TBogg entries if you doubt how much her looks contributed to her launch (hint: the XX counterpart of W’s XY flightsuit moment).
Not that that matters to me — I voted for a skinny guy with big ears and a funny name.
You have to love a group, in this case the “Right,” who can overlook Palin’s possible abuse of authority, and soaking the Alaskan taxpayers as she and the first dude ferry her family around the state on taxpayer dollars, pay herself a stipend for living in her own home and having an exorcist type-witch doctor pray for her ascendency to the throne.
Goin’ fishin? Send us a postcard!