BREAKING NEWS: Arizona Officially Within Two Points!
graphic by twolf
Earlier, I made a pitch to get Barack Obama to come to Arizona on the basis of the closing polls:
Obama does indeed have a real shot, and suddenly a lot of people nationally have caught on to that fact. Pollster.com. DKos. Chuck Todd and MSNBC. And, best of all if you know Arizona politics over the last three plus decades or so, Bruce Merrill and the Cronkite8 poll. Dr. Merrill is the gold standard in Arizona polling, and he has a phenomenal record for accuracy.
Well, the preliminary word is in from Dr. Merrill. Hold onto your hats folks, we got us a neck and neck horserace!
Merrill’s brand new poll, taken from sampling over the weekend and Monday, in it’s entirety, is to be released tonight at 7:00 pm local Arizona time and has McCain up by two little itty bitty points: McCain 46% Obama 44% and Obama still seen as closing with a full week left and undecideds still expected to break significantly Obama!!!!!
Bruce Merrill is a native Arizonan, has been teaching at Arizona State since 1971, and has been doing the absolute finest and most accurate polling of Arizona races for many decades. He really is the gold standard here.
This is fantastic news! Unless, of course, you are John McCain…..
Holy $^#@!*^$!!
The Rams can play.
(PC murdered by malevolent virus on DKos 8 days ago.)
Congrats, bmaz! How can Barack stay away now? Remember how the Rethugs rubbed our noses in Gore’s loss of Tennessee in 2000? Revenge is best served hot in the desert!
It’s getting pretty interesting eh? Going to be quite a week here with this news.
hah hah
the obama team could use bmaz to help frame their response whenever mccain makes another rediculous campaign claim
Excellent news, bmaz!
Maybe McCain can just send Sarah to Sedona. Bet all those spiritualistic types would love her. Not.
I don’t usually go sarcastic, but I’m trying to work on my sense of humor.
baby steps, demi! :~)
If I had arthritic knees, I might be able to come up with a joke.
:O
(thanks pun.)
big belly laugh. you go girl.
That picture of McSame with the tongue action from the debate just keeps on giving. The amazing thing is its the original and not photoshopped.
Obama needs to be plus 5 to have a shot in battlegrounds. Vote theft will make this a close but probable win for O.
According to the NY Times Upcoming Campaign Events, Obama is in Missouri on Thursday, and the schedule is open until Election Night in Chicago. If the polls are holding in Ohio/Pa/Fla, then a day spent in Arizona/Nevada/Colorado would be worth 24 electoral votes, but the real value would be in consolidating support for the next time and for the downticket races. Please Senator, go visit bmaz!
WooHoo!
Awesome graphic. Twolf is a maniac.
twolf is teh awesome!
twolf is terrific!!
bmaz, this is such a thrill to watch your posts on McCain and AZ.
Incredible… pinching myself in giddy glee ;-)))
time for a McGilaMonster cactus rictus
“my friends, that’s not change” (weak and be leavin’).
Please, Obama campaign, if you’re reading this, COME TO ARIZONA!!!
For weeks, I have been telling my friends and family in other, bluer states like CA and MA that McCain shouldn’t take Arizona as a given. I see far more bumper stickers and signs for Obama than I do for McCain down here in the Chandler/Tempe/Gilbert area–the only striking exception is when I was up in Paradise Valley to meet a friend for lunch. Lots of McCain/Palin stickers in that neck of the woods. Outside that, though, I bet I can count on one hand the number of McCain-adorned cars I’ve seen driving around the southeast Valley. Lots of Southern California transplants here–many on my street have commented on our yard sign, much to my surprise!
Regarding the photo at top, omg!. Can you guys (gender neutral term), can you imagine if McCain was president? We’d have to see it everyday.
It’s so lecherous. Ewwwww.
OK, you guys are smart. How do we know that many pollster phone calls aren’t re-routed into teams of partisans?
What safeguards are in place, if any, to prevent stolen swing state polls from tightening and disguising a stolen election?
“OK, you guys are smart. How do we know that many pollster phone calls aren’t re-routed into teams of partisans?
What safeguards are in place, if any, to prevent stolen swing state polls from tightening and disguising a stolen election?”
Please explain. I’m unclear what you are saying. That someone hooks into the phone lines of a pollster and makes it appear that a race is wider or narrower than the real population? Do you have evidence of this occurring? Furthermore wouldn’t they need to have the inside scoop on what the pollsters weighting methods were in order to arrive at the “right numbers” that they selected. It’s be an awfully complex procedure.
If I were to try this I’d simply bribe the pollster…somebody like Zogby (who seems to love Matt Drudge recently)…to fudge the figures by adjusting his weighting. Of course you’d have to bribe a whole bunch of pollsters, and one might squeal and blow the whole scam.
breaking news: McCain promises to serve his first term sealed inside BioSphere2.
/s
Alrightio!!
any reports on which two points Arizona is in ???
has anybody interviewed these two points ???
and how does a whole state manage to get “within” anything
I don’t really understand what you’re talking about, but Arizona got themselves in this, let them get themselves out of it
/typical mcsame supporter
I might be able to survive here all week, tip your waiter …
Saturday: A three-fer could be stops in any combination of these: Nevada (now +10), Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado.
Sunday: I think he’d also want to consider a sweep through Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Final Monday would be Missouri, Indiana, Ohio.
Then home to Illinois.
Of course, the best part of this is that McCain is now forced to campaign in his home state. Especially if Obama spends a day or two there.
I am personally hoping that more states are in play than there are rigged voting machines to cover them.
If you haven’t seen this video you owe it to yourself.
http://dailykos.com/
that’s beautiful! there’s tears in these old eyes.
Beautiful, perfect. That is true life. That man is all of us.
Administrator,
Could you please direct me as to how to post an enlightening perspective for review for this site. My perspective is a bit analogous, but I believe it to be relavent. Please email at [email protected]. I saw earlier alerts on how to post an article on this web site, but was unsure of how my perspective would be received. Please allow me to submit to you my take on some of the problems we all face. I completely support firedoglake.com and everything this site is working to archive. Thank you, Randy Gorsuch
PO Box 1141
San Andreas, CA
95249
I’m really excited for you [and Arizona], bmaz, but I have to say that I’d like to see Obama spend some time in KY, MN or any of the other places where the Senate race is really close. I think he could make a difference in putting some of the Dem challengers over the top, and that would be a mighty pretty sight to see — esp. if it would mean gaining enough Dem. Senate seats to be able to kick Joe Lieberman’s sorry ass to the curb.
That would be fine too.
I didn’t comment on your earlier article bmaz. There was too much going on at the time. So I’ll let you know now that I really liked and the news out of Arizona is wonderful. I hope he goes there.
Thanks. I very much appreciate that.
wazzzup
Bmaz what are you doing down there In Arizona? What ever you have it must be catching! Damn good news. Out knocking on doors all day… more sad stories about families scraping by often with a kid in the military. I tell you this is a theme song in southeastern Ohio.
We are pushing hard and keeping our fingers crossed
great news, bmaz. and great work.
in sad news, i just caught up with the threads and saw the note from marie roget’s daughter. what a horrible loss. she worked nearby, and i’d always harbored the hope we could connect some day. may her spirit live on.
Imagine a 50,000-100,000 person rally in Flagstaff or Scottsdale for Obama, like the one he just held in Colorado.
Now imagine how utterly beautiful it would be to see that type of crowd in McCain’s home state.
Now imagine the paltry crowds that gather for McCain’s rallies…and how they would have to respond…or at least comment on the disparity between the crowds…
Game. Set. Match.
Sorry Chuffy – no place big enough in Scottsdale (my hometown). Use ASU’s Sun Devil stadium – plenty of parking and room for overflow crowd!
Capitol Mall by the State Capitol. The park where the old Phoenix Indian School was, Steele Indain School Park would both be fine places. The Greenbelt in Scottsdale. There are lots of places here.
bmaz, i am sure merrill’s experience and intuition are worth gold. but i would take your own advice and remain wary, as a no. az u poll from just last thursday had mccain up 8.
now, i’m not keen on raining on your parade, but it seems to me that your perspective on this matter is not quite balanced. in terms of the nat’l polls, you wax all spooked and don’t count your chickens and all. that, when obama has been leading nationally for weeks, and the trend is pretty well solid and even conservatives are conceding it’s a total disaster.
on the other hand, in your emotional plea for obama to visit AZ, you are taking this one merrill poll and running with it for all it’s worth, as if the future reality of the universe was revealed. and you count it as yet more reason to insist obama should visit there.
at this point, quite frankly, it’s no longer about the fine points of either of our arguments. i simply submit to you that your wits have taken a back seat to your passions at this point, and that is never a good thing.
i hope, god knows i HOPE you are right. i hope obama takes AZ, but more than that i hope he sweeps the table. of course i hope obama sweeps the table, and i hope arpaio and thomas get kicked out on their buts, but actually, to be honest with you, i’m not that invested in seeing mccain lose in his home state. it would not bring me any real joy. god knows he’s suffering immense humiliation as it is.
ya just gotta be willing to allow a man some dignity, doncha think?
Lllphd ~It’s not just the Merill (actually it’s the ASU/Cronkite Institute poll) it’s a whole series of polls, in addition to the evidence of substantial momentum. I posted this information on the earlier thread and don’t know how you could have missed it.
Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain/Obama/Barr/Nader/Und/Other Margin
ASU/Cronkite 46% McCain 44% Obama +2
NAU 10/18-27 600 RV 49 41 – – 8 Undec/Other +8R
Rasmussen 10/26 500 LV 51 46 – – 3 Undec /Other +5R
Myers/Gr (D) 10/23-4 600 LV 44 40 2 Barr 3 Nader 3 Undec – +4R
Zimmerman 10/16-1 408 LV 44 42 2 Barr 2 Nader 10 Undec – +2R
Rasmussen 9/29 500 LV 59 38 – – 3Undec/Other +21R
So the last 5 polls average out to a 3.8 race. And if one considers that polls with Barr and Nader as alternatives have been far closer than the pairwise comparisons and reduced McCain’s lead from above 50% to 44% it may actually mean that Obama is leading in this poll. In any case it’s extremely close.
apologies; you are correct, there is a trend, though none show a lead for obama as yet. i’m an eternal optimist and believe for numbers of reasons i actually posted here weeks/months ago that these polls are WAY underestimating obama support. so i have every reason to believe your enthusiasm for these gains is well-founded.
i am simply recoiling from the ferocity of the demands and the commentary. this does not further constructive discourse or good will. and i’m just talking about on this blog for starters.
Listen, we will just have to agree to disagree. That is fine, that is what discussion and argument is about. You are stuck on your position, I am sure not going to waver from my desire to have my state treated no different than the others that have legitimate races and have had visits from the candidates. But I will add one thing. I don’t think John McCain is entitled to diddly squat. He has run an ugly, dishonorable, disgusting race; and he has been living off of the good will of Arizona, while doing little to nothing in return for the state or it’s people, in return ever since the cad set foot down here. He is owed NOTHING. Now I am done with this conversation. I will respect your opinion and you can do as you wish with mine; but I grow weary of the argument.
fine, we can disagree. and you can grow weary. whatever. i just don’t quite grasp what is served by all the vitriol and inflamed rhetoric.
sure, mccain has been a beast; did we expect anything else? but for obama to even glance in that general direction? i expect nothing of the sort. the man takes darn near every possible measure of his every move, seems to me. with great care. no one has attempted to counter the reasons i listed as to why it would not necessarily be a good idea for him to risk campaigning there; instead the discussion is closed.
on a more conciliatory note, i am quite sympathetic about being ignored in the campaigning, living in MA; the only time we see a candidate here is when there’s a boston convention. that’s definitely a problem that needs to be changed somehow. always thought we need to dispense with the electoral college, but someone recently put forward a reasonable (though not altogether convincing) argument for the arrangement, though i apologize, i can’t locate it just now.
i’m sure we can agree that the setup poses many problems, and i don’t blame you for feeling ignored; at least we have kennedy and kerry here. in the meantime, though, it is what it is. i hope with all my heart AZ turns as blue as the sky there just before dawn, regardless of what obama decides to do.
and also, congrats on the huffpo nod; well-deserved.
No, I have no evidence of compromised phone circuitry. Zero. Zee-Row. I’m just wondering if anybody knows a pollster who could answer this question.
I have been looking all over the blog world to see if any one is writing about the upcoming (last I heard it was supposed to start today) Aipac Rosen/Weissman espionage trial. Nothing. Of course not a whisper in the MSM. You either have to be Senator Stevens, Joe The Plumber, Sarah with a new warddrobe, skinheads with tuxedos, or a pig with lipstick on to get that kind of attention. Forget reporting anything about an espionage trial. If folks lobbying for France had “allegedly” been caught spying the MSM and the blogosphere would be all over it.
This trial has been delayed I believe four times maybe five (is this normal?) The last date set was Oct 28th. But when I do to the U.S. District Court for The Eastern District of Virginia I can not find anything about this trial. How do I find out what has happened in regard to changes in dates, or what is happening with this investigation and trial especially when no one has the chutzpah to report about this investigation and trial?
Here is the latest appeal to have the case dismissed Oct 15. What does this mean? Is this trial in limbo again?
http://www.fas.org/sgp/jud/aipac/rosen101508.pdf
Selected case files
http://www.fas.org/sgp/jud/aipac/index.html
I agree with you, bmaz. We need to take every state and every race we can. Winning in Arizona pays many dividends as you have so stated. The most important is to show the world that people everywhere are repudiating the hate filled rapid right wing politics that McCain represents. A victory in Az will show that we mean business.
I hope that the high ups in the Obama campaign here your eloquent plea.
It is very seriously important for him to avoid revenge motives in going to one state or another or in picking one cabinet person or another or in pursuing one policy or another.
Priorities put a lot of things ahead of revenge or ‘rubbing it …’.
Please come to Arizona this weekend Obama. PLEEEEEEEZE!!!!!!!
I will personally guarantee 100,000+ people attending your rally!
Let’s bury McCain/Palin and the rest of the rightwing pricks once and for all!!!!!!!!
Icing on the cake, if AZ goes blue.
I think we’ll be needing more popcorn on Tuesday night.
Kos says that the Obama campaign hasn’t even been advertising in Arizona the last two weeks, which makes the surge even more remarkable! This really is on the tipping point.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…..608/645181
There has been no advertising here save for whatever bleeds in from national cable; at least as far as I am aware. No appearances by surrogates. Nothing. It really is remarkable; and why a little love, on top of what already is underway here in the way of movement, sure looks like it would make the difference.
Front page at HuffPost! Dude!
Congrats, bmaz!!! I got here through HuffPO. Does Obama have a ground operation in place in AZ as he does in Colorado and New Mexico? I am part of the Obama campaign here in Northern California. Most of our phone banking efforts have been directed towards Nevada and Colorado by assignment from the national staff. We can even phone bank in Florida and Pennsylvania.
In addition to asking for Obama to come to a weekend rally, you could ask for AZ to be added as a phone bank site on the virtual operation available to us volunteers through barackobama.com. I am sure the voter databases are available Perhaps these are tangible and doable shifts that could help Get out the vote in AZ in the next 7 days.
Welcome cacique88; hope you come back often.
My observation, although somewhat limited to what I have seen in conjunction with local campaigns, is that Obama has a great ground operation in place considering that there has been no campaigning here since the primary. I don’t know the reporting sources for it, but this article in Huff Post sounds close to right, if maybe just a tad optimistic. Clearly to me, at least, the Obama ground is far superior to McCain, which is, in itself, remarkable.
I would like to see a speech on sigint, wiretapping, army families on foodstamps, in the shopping center in Sierra Vista, ‘private’ social security, even foreign policy; how about rust belt issues; a lot of the army intelligentsia hails from the midwest and south. It gets dry in the desert, seems to have the AZ senator teched in the image. How about mentioning a humanized approach to immigration and work permits; how about the suburbanization of fragile desert lands; many topics if Senator Barack Obama choses to discuss national security in that venue; maybe he could overnight in Phoenix then a mid morning event in SV, though there are some grand places he might visit as well, part politics, part rest and recreation. How about the Forest Service plan to clear cut original growth forests of ponderosa from the rim of the Grand Canyon, there is a due process brand of environment policy the senator might add to a speech. Though, where I would like to see a walking tour would be Bisbee, the old copper mine town along the southeast AZ border with MX. He can do all that after the election, as well.
bmaz – It’s really great to see Arizona coming down to a horse race at the end!
I think you Arizonans can do it even without a visit from Obama.
However, since McCain has announced that his ‘closing argument’ for the remaining days is focused on the Economy – Wouldn’t it be nice if the Arizona Dems joined forces with the Arizona Old School Fiscal Conservatives, in a show of Post-Partisan Cooperation, to invite Obama out to Arizona to tout his “Back to the Regulatory Basics” Economic Plan?
Give Obama a good, clean, last-days-of-the-campaign-related reason to come to Arizona – for instance, if tomorrow’s polls show the race dead even at 45-45 – and he just might make the visit that will carry the day on Tuesday…
lllphd~ I ask you, did JFK come to California to campaign against Nixon? Would Bobby Kennedy have denied himself the opportunity? Certainly Humphrey came to California, as did McGovern. Perhaps Carter didn’t attempt to try Michigan against Ford, but I bet that Mondale was up there.
I just don’t get that any of these acts are viewed as “humiliating” the rival. If you are close in the polls in that State, if it is competitive, and you are not in a Nixonian runaway…you go for the win. It draws off resources from the opponent, helps the down ticket races, and bolsters the party for the future. You don’t have to be nasty about it (in fact doing so would likely not win the race on the home turf). And nothing but the opponents ego would keep them from accepting a reach across the aisle.
I agree that there may be other races that are more winnable but some of those that are in the yellow may actually be harder…they have stagnated and frozen. McCain has better organization and has spent more money in them. Dropping behind the lines and undertaking a guerilla action (ala the Trojan Horse) and bringing over the Hispanics that have said they support McCain (its about 44%-56% Obama in AZ vs. nearly 70-75% support in NV, NM and CO) would make this an easy win.
i understand time is fleeting; maybe he can’t make it, maybe he can. I dunno. And I can’t speak in nearly such an informed manner about what the conditions are in the other states that are competing for the time left; I simply am not, and have not been, on the ground in those places. It looks to me though as is Obama has been fairly recently to most all of those states, and he is looking pretty good in most all of them (not saying my perception may not be mistaken, but that is how it appears to me). There are also powerful surrogates that have been with him on the ground in those states that can carry on for him long enough to allow a quick trip out here. What he could gain in exposure and emotion out of all potential voters, but especially Hispanics, would be invaluable. what happens here would carry to at least a partial extent into Vegas too; plus he has been there more recently.
I am biased, and I am selfish; when it was large for McCain, I understood getting the short shrift, but now that it is a dead up horserace, I would like some attention here too. There are a lot of factors I could accept for not getting a visit. But some concern for John McCain and his freaking feelings is not even remotely one of them. To me, that is flat out insulting. He has been the worst Senator this state has ever had that I have known in my lifetime. He has had a long arm for taking from us and a damned short arm for giving and doing for us. There are plenty of reasons why Obama likely won’t make it here; but the thought that McCain’s fucking feelings should be it just blows my mind. There is absolutely NOTHING that could be of any less concern for the Democrats and people wanting to have an epiphany here.
I have tried to look at it as fairly as I can, and I think the net positives are easily such that a quick trip here would be a good move. All I can do is state why that is, which I have done, get the information to officials at the Obama national campaign, which I have done, and see what happens.
It is possible to get to the promised land without an appearance by Obama; but it is almost a certainty with an appearance. That is why I am hot under the collar for it.
bmaz, it is very good to see that you have recovered your strength in this argument and are no longer weary of it.
again, i do understand and sympathize with your position, and i commend it. it is a VERY good idea in many respects that you mention, the down ticket points and the point of energizing the minority population there, always a good thing.
wrt the former, I think we’ll see obama appoint a US atty who will investigate arpaio and thomas whether they win or not. I know that seems small consolation now, but we all must prioritize with larger considerations for the greatest good in mind. at least, that’s my approach.
wrt the latter, I also think minorities will be energized with an obama win whether he visits their states or not, and whether they vote or not. his win will be a living breathing statement of what a minority can actually do (voting AND running), what the minority population can actually pull off, and every single one of them will sit up and take notice. they will see and they will fulfill what this country is supposed to be about.
I make these points because I see with an obama visit to AZ a serious risk involved, and I don’t think obama should ignore that. That was the upshot of my position. I’m not saying this must necessarily come from compassion, though that is my preference and my choice, as much because I think/feel/want to believe this is consistent with the man, who he is. But I was also saying, whether or not the compassion is real (again, shouldn’t it be??), the perception out there in the world of hooligans and hacks matters politically. I previously outlined those political reasons and how I thought obama would weigh them.
Just for a moment, though, think about obama’s response to questions about his leaving the campaign trail to visit his dying grandmother. It went something along the lines of ‘well, most folks would probably interpret my staying away from her side as an indication that I don’t care, and if they feel I don’t care about my grandmother who raised me, how can they feel I’d care about them?’
Now, apply that sentiment to how many would interpret obama’s campaigning in AZ when mccain is losing nationally and possibly in his own home state.
(and cinnamonape, the comparisons to jfk and carter and mondale don’t work because none of those guys was winning like obama is.)
See, I believe that obama believes that – no matter how nastily the hooligans and hacks may abuse that sentiment – most Americans get the whole idea of good will. That’s what we’re all about. If we’re willing to ignore our dying grandmothers when we want to win an election, what is to keep us from ignoring our dying brethren when we want to win a war? If we’re willing to kick our opponents when they’re down, what but a slippery slope is to keep us from torturing our enemies?
It’s all of a piece to me, and I have to tell ya, I’m truly amazed at how this man is living out this tenet of wisdom, but I am even more amazed at his faith in the capacity of each and every one of us to live it, too. These tenets are not just Christian at their core, and they are not just American at their core; they are human.
And if we are not willing to recognize them as our responsibilities at all times, when we are winning or losing, when we are suffering or not, we are inviting the lapse into that other realm of humanity, the ugly, fearful part that does all those things we have for so long berated the republicans for.
We really have to stop that. In everything we do. We really must stop it. Now.
in my 67 response, i address the jfk/carter/mondale analogy; it does not work because they were not winning nationally as obama is now. obama has the upper hand, which is THE reason going after AZ with a visit would be perceived as kicking mccain when he’s down. all those races were too close to call; this one is really not looking that way.
add to that mccain’s age and the numerous ways in which he has humiliated himself, it’s just unseemly to brutalize the man. unseemly because it lacks in compassion.
and because it is unseemly it is also not politically wise. see above.
our behaviors must be consistent across circumstances; we can’t demand that these guys behave themselves if we’re not willing to consider the higher road when it is obvious. also, see above.
AZ might be an ‘easy’ win with ‘guerilla’ tactics and parachuting obama in on the front lines. but just because it’s easy won’t make it a good one. and no, not all wins are good.
has watching these very sentiments eat the country alive and destroy the republican party not taught us anything???
IIIphd – I find the Chivalry of your approach commendable, and would also never myself advocate kicking a man when he was down.
But, imvho, Politics is like Boxing – you get to fight everywhere Inside the Ring – including Rocking your opponent with Body Shots in his own corner – right after he trash-talked you in the Center of the Ring.
This is a Rough Sport. If McCain mis-manages his Campaign, he won’t just Lose – he’ll get Knocked-Out.
thanks for the kind words, and i agree that campaigning resembles a boxing match.
but it should not be like that, and it does not have to be. obama has worked very hard – valiantly, in my opinion – to avoid that as much as possible. because we have to get ourselves back on track here.
we have such enormous issues to confront, and we’re quibbling about palin’s wardrobe!
tho campaigning in the US resembles boxing, i see obama treating it more like jiu jiitsu, as i’ve said. he watches very very carefully and allows his opponents’ weaknesses to do them in. he never breaks a sweat or gets his hands dirty, and then he reaches out and offers an honest and very believable hand precisely because he has kept clean.
i apologize to everyone who’s still here for my belaboring this point, but i think it is enormously important. not to be grandiose, but i think it’s the most important issue we confront in this election, and yes, in every moment of our lives. do we treat each other with humanity no matter what the circumstances and no matter what their crimes?
i have to give a resounding YES to that because that is who we are! see my points above. that is, if you’re still here.
and so goes Arizona…LOL @ photo
It is truly amazing that Obama has gotten this far in AZ. I would love to see O take it…I think it is still possible.