But What about Congressional Oversight?
In addition to showing how the Iran hawks have evaded oversight over their Special Forces war plan against Iran, Sy Hersh seems intent on generating pressure on Democrats to withhold funding now being used to start a covert war with Iran.
Hersh notes that the Gang of Eight has been briefed on the CIA–but not the Special Forces, assassination of high value targets–part of the plan.
Although some legislators were troubled by aspects of the Finding, and “there was a significant amount of high-level discussion” about it, according to the source familiar with it, the funding for the escalation was approved. In other words, some members of the Democratic leadership—Congress has been under Democratic control since the 2006 elections—were willing, in secret, to go along with the Administration in expanding covert activities directed at Iran, while the Party’s presumptive candidate for President, Barack Obama, has said that he favors direct talks and diplomacy.
I love how Hersh feels the need to remind Democrats they are in the majority.
Then, after recalling all the opposition to Administration plans from within the military, Hersh returns to Democrats’ failure to prevent policies they oppose.
The Democratic leadership’s agreement to commit hundreds of millions of dollars for more secret operations in Iran was remarkable, given the general concerns of officials like Gates, Fallon, and many others. “The oversight process has not kept pace—it’s been coöpted” by the Administration, the person familiar with the contents of the Finding said. “The process is broken, and this is dangerous stuff we’re authorizing.”
Now, the problems with oversight seem to focus on two things. First, the Democrats once again got punked by Administration lies when, three years ago, David Obey backed off an attempt to withhold funding for such operations.
On March 15, 2005, David Obey, then the ranking Democrat on the Republican-led House Appropriations Committee, announced that he was putting aside an amendment that he had intended to offer that day, and that would have cut off all funding for national-intelligence programs unless the President agreed to keep Congress fully informed about clandestine military activities undertaken in the war on terror. He had changed his mind, he said, because the White House promised better coöperation. “The Executive Branch understands that we are not trying to dictate what they do,” he said in a floor speech at the time. “We are simply trying to see to it that what they do is consistent with American values and will not get the country in trouble.”
Obey declined to comment on the specifics of the operations in Iran, but he did tell me that the White House reneged on its promise to consult more fully with Congress. He said, “I suspect there’s something going on, but I don’t know what to believe. Cheney has always wanted to go after Iran, and if he had more time he’d find a way to do it. We still don’t get enough information from the agencies, and I have very little confidence that they give us information on the edge.”
So Congressional Dems aren’t doing the most efficacious thing to prevent BushCo from starting their war with Iran, defunding such efforts.
Democrats who have been briefed on the Presidential Finding (which appears to be restricted to the Gang of Eight), are just now figuring out that Cheney has the assassinations hidden behind Bush’s EO giving Special Forces a blank check.
Senior Democrats in Congress told me that they had concerns about the possibility that their understanding of what the new operations entail differs from the White House’s. One issue has to do with a reference in the Finding, the person familiar with it recalled, to potential defensive lethal action by U.S. operatives in Iran.
[snip]
The defensive-lethal language led some Democrats, according to congressional sources familiar with their views, to call in the director of the C.I.A., Air Force General Michael V. Hayden, for a special briefing. Hayden reassured the legislators that the language did nothing more than provide authority for Special Forces operatives on the ground in Iran to shoot their way out if they faced capture or harm.
Yet it appears that Dems are doing the same thing they did in response to the warrantless wiretap program: writing letters into the black hole of the White Hous email system.
The legislators were far from convinced. One congressman subsequently wrote a personal letter to President Bush insisting that “no lethal action, period” had been authorized within Iran’s borders. As of June, he had received no answer.
(Note, there’s a strong chance that this "congressman" is Silvestre Reyes, since he’s the only Congressman briefed on the full Finding; the other Congresswoman would be Speaker Pelosi.)
And an aide for what appears to be Senator Reid (the only male in leadership briefed on the program), suggests Reid is just claiming he’s powerless to do anything about the Iran war-mongering.
An aide to one member of the Democratic leadership responded, on his behalf, by pointing to the limitations of the Gang of Eight process. The notification of a Finding, the aide said, “is just that—notification, and not a sign-off on activities. Proper oversight of ongoing intelligence activities is done by fully briefing the members of the intelligence committee.” [my emphasis]
So that’s it. Reyes (presumably) sending notes into the void again and Reid (presumably) simply despairing of the intelligence oversight process. That’s what has become of the the power to declare war.
wow empty wheel, wow
how are we gonna stop these maniacs, the democrats seem as though they are on board
Well, we can cross our fingers and pray REAL hard.
Marcy, as I was working in the garden, attempting to channel my anger & despair over this situation, I was thinking, “in what media outlet could this story be brought to the attention of the American people [that percentage that pays attention to such things]”?
What dawned on me was that this administration has so co-opted or cowed the “traditional” sources who “broke” Watergate or other scandals, that the answer is “none.”
The NYT & WaPoo certainly aren’t going to cover it [unless there’s an opening on p. A-16]. ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS — nope.
Keith Olbermann — perhaps, but he’s too distracted by his pissing match with Glenn Greenwald.
I dunno. Up until this point in our history we’ve relied on the courts and the press to “balance” the power of the executive and congress. No longer, it appears.
PS – I’ll bet Sy Hersh is FISA’d up the wazoo.
It has been amazing listening to callers on C-Span’s Washington Journal when Iran comes up. Common folks are hammering the Bush administration for their warmongering towards Iran. Are they doing anything to stop the Bush administrations war train is another question.
WTF has Iran done? What?
I reached the same conclusion as you, but quite a while back. Bush and his minions shouted down and neutralized the newspapers, loosened media ownership rules around TV and radio, and started their own. As a result, it seems that there are two versions of every story: the truth, and what the administration would have us believe. Considering that most newspapers and media outlets are owned by companies with boards of directors (many of whom are friends of the administration), there just is not much room left for a true free press.
My undergraduate degree was in Journalism, and I had always been fascinated with the story of Watergate. For years, I kept hearing about the misdeeds in this administration, and I kept wondering — where is the outrage? When is someone going to scream “BS” and start impeachment proceedings? Where is the smoking gun?
The sad truth is that there is no one who can scream loud enough to overcome the non-issues that these people like to float as real problems. I am so sick and tired of hearing about the awful things that will happen if gay people are allowed to marry… But the citizenry at large think that it is a problem because it is being given so much play. They do not hear about the real issues…
My birthday is June 17, which is the date of the Watergate break-in. I was overseas for a year in 1972, but was back for the Watergate hearings and Nixon’s resignation.
It was a proud time for traditional media, for Congress, for “government employees” who stood up to unlawful orders, and finally, for the American people.
I’m wishing for a torrent of stories about the Nuremberg trials and the fate of those, even within the military, who followed clearly illegal orders. Someone needs to remind them.
It’s all about lapel pins, sadly.
I too was enegized by Watergate…
We are not living in the same time zone, sadly, sadly.
Probably, but I’ll bet it doesn’t make any difference. If Hersh were vulnerable he’d have been taken down long ago. In principle the ones who would be vulnerable are his sources, not that there’s any news in that statement.
Most likely the way Hersh operates is a version of “Moscow Rules” (think George Smiley). He probably hasn’t had a phone conversation or an email exchange of any substance in years.
The success Hersh has at getting people on the inside to speak candidly is a great source of pleasure. The pleasure is amplified tremendously by the fact that he accomplishes it by not working as a typical MSM drone.
Marcy, just as I suspected, we can’t count on the Demos to do anything to stop this. The only question remaining is when will the Bushies unleash the attack on Iran – Oct surprise, 48 hours before as McSame jovially declares his victory or some other time.
On a brighter note, we have had a quail couple in the yard for a few weeks and today I saw them with their brand new brood – 5 of the cutest little guys/gals you could ever see.
From left field I would just offer that I think where the US is really screwing up is by insisting that US (and European) corporations
keeps 75%? of the revenue fromdrill Iraq’s oil. It’s our “I drink your milk shake” approach that gives Iran the appearance of moral superiority (with me) and with much of the Middle East. I’ll gladly defer to others who are better informed.Off-topic, or parallel to topic, speaking of the black hole that is the White House email system:
Did anyone ever hear exactly what documents had been accessed when the Congressional Dems’ server had been breached?
It dawned on me that this happened between early 2002 and April 2003.
Wonder what they got on Pelosi…and others…and if it matches with content swirling in the black hole?
Who do you think they were wire-tapping prior to 11Sep01 and for what reason?
How can Congress or the American people expect their top military chiefs to do their duty and stand up to their commander-in-chief when he hides essential information from them and from Congress, and Congress fails in its political duty to do something about it?
That “presidential” conduct is what one expects in a Latin American coup, instigated to keep in place foreign control over coffee or bananas. It’s not what one expects from the President of the United States. Perhaps Congress, like Tim Russert, is waiting by the phone for that wake up call.
Hey, our Monkey friend gets a mention!
I had been terrified last week that the lesson Cheney would take out of FISA was that it was an engraved invitiation to send an Iran War Resolution to Congress. But reading this article, that particular fear was ill-founded: seems the Democratic leadership long ago accepted.
(The bits about the use of Iranian national minorities are, simply put, insane. Cheney must be the sort of person who sees an oil stain in an emtpy parking lot and thinks all he needs is a match to set the city on fire.)
Of course. Cheney and his posse slurped up and regurgitated out Chalabi, Curveball, Ghorbanifar, Ledeen, Kagan, and an endless list of other proven idiots and confirmed liars. Considering his history, co-opting the Filipino Monkey is actually toward the reasonable end of Cheney’s action spectrum.
Ew ask “Are we faking it”
http://emptywheel.firedoglake……ment-43187
LS January 9th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
41
I am coming tew yew. Yew will expleuoood after a few minutes.
Fechez la vache, I pleuk my neuz in your generral dirrection….
Bwahahahahhahaha!!
If the individuals you mentioned were not so sick and determined to take out Iran.. a person could stop and smile. They have steadily been moving towards bombing Iran.
Trying to work that into a post, for bmaz’ sake. Just haven’t managed it yet.
Why bother withholding funding? They’ll just get the Sandinistas to fund the war on Iran as a tit-for-tat. tee hee
I liked Amb. Crocker’s blanket denial that US special forces were using Iraq as a base from which to attack Iran.
http://thinkprogress.org/
Assuming that our good ambassador is not lying, that leaves about half a dozen other neighbors — including Afghanistan and Pakistan — and about 180 other countries from which those forces could be operating. Amb. Crocker would have been marginally more credible had he said we are not attacking Iran, directly or indirectly attacking, or seeking to undermine its legitimate government. He said no such thing.
“US Forces” might also be a relative term.
Are you thinking, perhaps, of paid mercenaries not subject to any king, but to the highest bidder, and the armed forces of other countries?
One hears that the Aussies, like the Brits, have rather special forces, as do the South Africans, South Koreans and Japanese. One assumes that under the aegis of Blackwater and its peers, volunteers from many countries, and those on holiday from their usual work, would be welcome.
What if they are using Blackwater type “forces”?
those forces beholden to no laws
The article specifies that the CIA’s working out of a base in Afghanistan. Which would make sense, I guses.
my friend who just went back to Afghanistan was well aware of this base
“The article specifies that the CIA’s working out of a base in Afghanistan. Which would make sense, I guses.”
My guess would be Herat.
Bob in HI
Hersh’s article also describes incursions into Iran based out of Iraq. Per TP today, Amb. Crocker denies that “U.S. forces” are doing so, at least not now. He may be lying or playing Addington’s semantic game, meaning they were or may do so again, but for now, they’re based out of somewhere else, presumably that “obscure base” in SW Afghanistan described by Sy Hersh.
How would we react if Russia (or China) had invaded Mexico to remove an unpredictable dictator threatening their friends in Cuba, Mexico was in chaos, with a disbanded army and police, hundreds of thousands were dead and millions had fled across the border, while dozens of heavily armed Russian ships, including aircraft carriers, controlled the Gulf of Mexico. And there was no declaration of war, not generally, with Mexico or with the US.
What if Russia acknowledged that its forces in Mexico and globally felt unsafe because we have the bomb and are capable of delivering it anywhere in the world within forty-five minutes, that Russia had authorized spending several hundred millions of dollars in programs bent on stirring up domestic dissent among those uppity people of color and other, more recent immigrants. If they were bent on kidnapping, arming local hate groups, destabilization and “regime change”. Would we feel safer if Russia claimed that it wasn’t basing those operations in Mexico (only Quebec), and that they’d be happy to talk to us, but only after we gave up our nuclear arsenal and capabilities.
What would we do? Consider Mexico Russia’s exclusive sphere of influence and say and do nothing? Would we meekly accept their conditions, comply with them, and then hope it would enhance our position should Russia ever deign to start talks with us about the “regional situation” in North America? Or would we treat their actions as a de facto declaration of war?
United for Peace and Justice asking folks to call their Reps about H Con Res 362
http://www.unitedforpeace.org/
I think it’s not that uncommon to call both Representatives and Senators Congressmen, so I’ll stick with CYA Rockefeller over Reyes, only to keep the pool open.
I liked the part you ended with, Reid, through his surrogate, wistfully sighing, ‘if only we had 60% of the gang of 8 …’
Pelosi is no idiot, though. She isn’t just now figuring out that there are assassinations and civilan bombings (the cultural center) and killings/crimes in Turkey etc. bc of her non-action. She’s known what she was involved with from the getgo and that’s why she doesn’t want investigations. So she’s just sitting back, being briefed,giving bigeyed blinks and saying, “Iran oh yeah we passed an AUMF on Iran, didn’t we? Isn’t that where Hussein had his WMDs?” Yeah – right. As soon as the damn exec order went out that Bush could “prepare the battlefield” all over the WORLD, all Congress had to do was pass an amendment to or clarification of the AUMF to say, “ohno” They didn’t, they still haven’t.
Obey, who is still waiting for Lucy to hold the football for him, bemoans that he was fibbed to back in 2005 (that should be embarassing enough – that 5 FULL YEARS into the Bush administration he hadn’t figured out they fib especially about crimes that could send them to jail???) but where’s his follow up legislation now that he’s in the majority and knows they lied?
But to me, the real, true icing on the cake was them having Hayden in to fix it all up. So no one with the admin will give them anything in writing or under oath saying that we aren’t merrily assassinating and killing civilian Iranians on Iranian soil and assisting with some Turkish murders while we’re at it, so they have Hayden come in to “esplain” the finding to them.
Fresh from his recent courses at a nearby Sylvan Learning center, where efforts to teach him how to read the second half of the Fourth Amendment were resoundingly unsuccessful – Fresh from gabbing away with Charlie Rose about around 100 or so CIA prisoners (with only about a couple of dozen now accounted for) – Fresh from his national assurance that “teh program” did NOT include any kind of dragnetting of calls —- Hayden’s the guy they get to come tell them that the finding really only means what Bush has told them it means.
So they don’t require a change, they don’t make it crystal clear in writing to Hayden that nothing else is allowed from their perspective, they don’t do anything to block sending people in to fund and participate in kidnappings and killings and acts of terror in Iran – they just have Poppy Hayden pat their hands.
Unbelievable.
Meanwhile, we are funneling $$ to the same sects KSM and Yousef were associated with? And the Taliban’s kissing cousins?
Pelosi can hit a spa for weeks and there’s no way to steam that out of her pores.
I’d buy what you say about Jello Jay–except he knows who to address his letters (only to be ignored) to: Dick.
Mary,
You have a way with words. You never fail to make me smile even though the topics aren’t funny.
seconded.
Probably also worth noting that there is a longstanding feud of sorts between the traditional Army/Marines and special forces, and that it’s the latter that CheneyBush have given their own special command structure, like a Praetorian Guard, separate and apart from battlefield or theater commanders.
That feud dates back to the Revolutionary War, between irregular “mountain men” skilled in what we would now call guerilla tactics, and regular, uniformed military. It has echoes in the Civil War, and First and Second World Wars and Vietnam. Special forces, snipers and other irregulars have been formed in war, often against the wishes of the traditional military, then disbanded or starved or resources at the end of hostilities.
Among other conflicts, they clash over chains of command, the rules of war, resources, budgets and discipline. Their work is also secret and subject to much less oversight from the traditional military or Congress. Up until now, though, they’ve been relatively small in number and used discreetly. BushCheney uses them like their own private enforcers, whose streetfighters’ motto is that the only rule is that there are no rules.
“We like War” George Carlin (am going to miss this guru)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDkhzHQO7jY
Laugh a bit watch George
“Bigger Dick Foreign Policy at Work” Carlin would have had a ball with “barnacle”
16 – and per Hersh’s article:
Western Afghanistan is mostly controlled by the Taliban, unless Herat is meant. Herat is the only part of W. Afghanistan where “we” have a warlord client, Ismail Khan, in charge.
Bob in HI
Iran to ready thousands of graves for enemy soldiers
2 hours ago
TEHRAN (AFP) — Iran is to dig 320,000 graves in border districts to allow for the burial of enemy soldiers in the event of any attack on its territory, a top commander said on Sunday.
“In implementation of the Geneva Conventions… the necessary measures are being taken to provide for the burial of enemy soldiers,” the Mehr news agency quoted General Mir-Faisal Bagherzadeh as saying.
http://afp.google.com/article/…..9QNPsqPPRw
I think this might be the Iranian equivalent of snark.
Lessee, in American sports its called trash talk.
“Prepare to DIE, you miserable dogs!”
Bob in HI
Would someone mind going over to Janes house and asking Congressman Wexler why he is a co-sponsor of H Con Res 362?
I was banned for challenging the moderator
Not one of my questions which were all, ‘Why are you not answering the questions here sir?’ Got thru.
Not me.
At least you gave it a shot.
This is from MISSING LINKS- http://arablinks.blogspot.com/ -with more about the Malaki relative assination. There isn’t much to cut, so here’s the whole thing.
http://arablinks.blogspot.com/
Saturday, June 28, 2008
“US raid on Maliki homestead connected with the current negotiations”: Karbala governor (Updated)
Security for the province of Karbala was turned over to Iraqi authorities last October (Reuters), so it was with consternation that Karbala security authorities found out about an operation conducted at dawn Friday by the Americans, in which they airlifted 60 soldiers into the town of Janaja, and specifically into an area that is the birthplace of Prime Minister Maliki and the residence area of his extended family. The operation resulted in the killing of one man (said by McClatchy to be a relative of Maliki’s), and the arrest of another man, said to be not a resident of the area.
The McClatchy account gives most of the details, but there are a couple of points that the McClatchy account doesn’t make clear:
(1) The Karbala governor didn’t just call for an investigation of the incident, on the basis that it was dangerous and illegal, having been carried out with absolutely no coordination with Iraqi authorities, local or Baghdad. Rather, he called for the handing over of the American soldiers responsible for the killing to the Iraqi justice system for prosecution.
(2) He said he thinks this operation “was connected with the negotiations about a security agreement with Washington.”
Here is what he said in a telephone interview with AlHayat:
Karbala governor Aqil al-Khazaali condemned the operation … and he said “The municipal administration in Karbala was dumbfounded when they found out the American forces had committed this outrageous and illegal violation of the precinct of the Prime Minister of Iraq”. And he demanded “the handover of those American soldiers and officers involved in the airlift operation, to the Iraqi judiciary for the killing of an innocent and unarmed civilian, for their arrest of another, and for their terrorizing of families”.
Al-Khazaali added: “The airlift operation was against the law, because the security responsibilities were turned over [to Iraq] last year”. He stressed it is the Iraqi security forces in the city who are authorized to conduct pursuit of wanted persons or outlaws. He said this operation was dangerous and illegal because there was no coordination with either the [local] defence or interior ministry, or even with the central government. He said his view was that the airlift operation “is connected with (in the sense of entangled with) the negotiations for a security agreement with Washington.”
In a separate story, AlHayat quotes a Dawa party official by the name of Hasan Saneed to the effect that the Americans have presented a revised draft of a proposed agreement, and this is under study by the UIA and the Dawa leadership, but the other remarks are ambiguous. He said an agreement won’t be signed “before July”; that the Americans have added some “new concepts that aren’t clear”; and so on. There aren’t any specific details.
A spokesman for the main Sunni parliamentary bloc said the government has promised to present this to Parliament once it has finished studying it; that parliament won’t approve anything that infringes national principles, as was the case with the former draft; and so on and so forth. The gist of this is that the negotiation process isn’t over, in fact the language suggests a document will be put to parliament, the only questions being when and including what details.
_____________
Nahrainnet adds: As for the specific trigger for this operation, a security source in Karbala “pointed the finger at the American ‘development office’ that was recently opened, and that is thought to be in reality the office of an American consultate on the model of the American consulate in Hilla where they conduct spying and intelligence-gathering operations, and where they recruit agents. The source said the initial information circulating at the provincial level tends to the conviction that there was involvement by those responsible for the American office that was opened recently in the province–this is a security office opened recently under the guise of participation in the development of the province, located in the district of Ibrahimiya, where it is surrounded by heavy security walls, having the character of a security and intelligence [installation], covering its missions with the appearance of development, in order to make contact with various levels of the population.”
The operation itself was conducted by American special forces, and the location, the town of Janaja, is located about 10 kilometers from this office. The source said “We are starting to understand that among the missions of this office is the takeover of the security and intelligence file of the whole province…”
posted by badger at 6:28 PM 0 comments “
Thanks Pet just hope someone ask him directly about why he co-sponsoring H Con Resolution 362
Petrocelli his answer ignores the findings of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran
I think he will get away without anyone asking directly.
Will anyone ask him why he voted to co-sponsor H Con Resolution 362 which was pushed for by Aipac members after their last conference in D.C.?
Why is he willing to go along with legislation which ignores the findings of the latest National Intelligence Edstimate?
trying.
You are kicking ass. Wonder what he meant when he said to Jayt ‘the last thing that I want or you want at this time is a military confrontation at this moment” What did he mean by “this moment”?
And why did he and the other congresspeople as well as the Bush administration and Aipac ignore the findings of the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran? Why do we need economic sanctions against Iran?
“a military confrontation with Iran at this moment” What the hell does that mean?
I’ve said this @47, but it bears repeating. Iran is a threat to U.S. hegemony in the region, I believe. My guess is every member of Congress and present and past administrations support a foreign policy of U.S. predominance and control. Although U.S. “leadership” is the term used, I believe it’s a euphemism for control. It’s no surprise that members of Congress as well as the Bush Administration would ignore an NIE that doesn’t conform to their desires or goals. I think we have such a problem with their actions because we don’t share the same desires and goals. Personally, I think the most significant factor that would further the peace and security of the United States is if we weren’t a lone “superpower” and if we entered a multi polar world with multiple centers of power. Empire is bankrupting us, but sadly that’s probably what it will take for this to change.
Peony,
I totally agree with your analysis.
We are being squeezed by powers in control of oil.
Ultimately, we’ll have to change our life styles.
But when the Big Change comes, will it be a shout or a whimper.
“They” have the big guns, I only have a .22
WayneC
thanks. i’d really like him to answer my fisa question too – because his votes, as far as i can see, have all been of the ’safe’ votes. i’d like to see more than platitudes from him – but i’m not seeing that (yet) on either fisa or iran.
If he believes in “diplomatic means” with Iran. Does he support what Flynt Leverett, Wesley Clark, Jimmy Carter and Zbigniew Brizinski have said that we need to sit down with Iran and start talking now. Flynt Leverett has written that Iran has tried on many occasions to directly talk and that they have been refused.
Remember how Sidney Blumenthal told us that John Bolton “allegdly” had access to Colin Powells negotiations with Iran and interferred with those negotiations.
Really can’t say enough good about the questions you asked Wexler. You were respectful and the accuracy on the content of Congressional tactics was brilliant.
Leen, I might add, shortly after we listened to AIPAC on this, Olmert looked to be threatened politically, to be done, but then has quite the bounce back? Why? After months of hearing he’s done?
What was he able to say that saved the Israeli Parliment?
I don’t think Olmert has done Israel any great favors
I don’t think so either but he’s done something we do not know about that saved his backside for now, as well as keep the Parliment together.
What I mean by”we” is our general public…Cheney and Bush know and probably gave him the tool to save his backside…
Barack Obama said in September 2007
Think he’s raised this issue with Congressional and party leaders since becoming the de facto nominee?
It is understandable that people fear a last minute bombing run on Iran; but, i think it is unlikely. The frequency and volume of sabre rattling has greatly diminished in the past couple of months. I wouldn’t put it passed bush to direct a bombing run in the Administration’s waning days, but bush is not completely insensitive to politics and the WH surely recognises the damage that would do to the Republs and to bush’s current and historical reputation.
I owe you Prof Foland
Why do we need to apply more pressure on Iran? What have they done? The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran confirmed that they are not pursuing nuclear weapons. Scott Ritter has said that there are questions as to whether they ever were. Iaea’s El Baradei has said that Iran poses “no immediate and imminent threat”. El Baradei has also said that he will resign if Israel or the U.S. strikes Iran.
What is the point of all this chest beating?
I believe what they [Iran] has done is challenge U.S. hegemony in the region. And that the Democratic leadership and rank and file Democrats are going along with a covert war with Iran because as Wexler points out, they are scared sh*tless of being “soft on terror.”
I just had a thought that the WH may want people’s attention on a bombing campaign so they can deny the allegations, all the while they conduct their covert war and assassinations under the radar.
One more comment re my above. It is a bitter pill for them, but i believe that the WH and other national security actors are coming to terms with a nuclear armed Iran. They have to. They have no options, especially not an attack
Leen, I may have heard wrong, but I beleive that only yesterday, Baradei said that Iran is 6 months from having a bomb
And I just received a reply from Professor Juan Cole of Informed Comment who I asked to clarify what El Baradei said and the way Aipac is misrepresenting these comments and taking them out of context
Here is his response to my request
Hi, Kathleen. Will try but they have more money and influence than I do.
cheers Juan
I found the actual words of El Baradei earlier today, but can not find them right now. Here is an article from Think Progress with some other links.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/…..-attacked/
If you google el baradei says Iran can have a nuclear bomb in six months to a year (which I do not believe for a minute that he said) the folks who are running with this misinterpretation leave one to question it’s validity.
http://www.alarabiya.net/artic…..51848.html
What you’re hearing is an echo from the neo-con talking chamber based on obsolete information.
Bob in HI
Selise and Prof Foland..
Has anyone asked him why those who have voted for this resolution are ignoring the findings of the latest National Intelligence Estimate.
Jayt that is frightening that he ended that statement with “at least not yet”
Leen, have you seen my post @43? Or do you not think this is the reason?
Not sure where you are at peony but you are not at 43. Big question is WHY ARE THEY IGNORING THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON IRAN?
this is one of Congressman’s responses to Jayt questioning him on his support for H con Resolution 362 ” The last thing I want – or you want – is a military confrontation with Iran at this moment.
What does he mean by “at this moment” We don’t want to confront Iran unless they actually threaten us. Hello
Leen et al,
This is the link to the el Baradei statement that Iran can have a bomb in six months.
http://wcbstv.com/national/isr…..55478.html
Just because you may not like the company it keeps, the quote may very well be accurate. Whether they have a bomb in six months or six years doesn’t change the situation: Everyone recognizes that an attack on Iran will lead to unforseable consequences in a region in which the foreseable consequences are frightening.
What the hell do you mean by “the bomb”? If you are intimating that they will have sufficient enriched uranium or plutonium, encased in a suitable device and properly triggered so as to be a threat to somebody/anybody, the best evidence almost universally says that is freaking nuts. El Baradei may have been talking about having appropriate centrifuge etc. facilities to actually begin the extended process, but last i heard, he was talking years away from having a usable weapon, at best.
What bmaz said.
Bob in HI
I firmly believe that El Baradei has been misquoted and hopefully Juan Cole will clear this up. Because if you google that statement folks are going wild with it.
“I don’t believe that what I see in Iran today is a current, grave and urgent danger. If a military strike is carried out against Iran at this time … it would make me unable to continue my work,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamad ElBaradei told AlArabiya television in an interview.
“A military strike, in my opinion, would be worse than anything possible. It would turn the region into a fireball,” he said, emphasizing that any attack would only make the Islamic Republic more determined to obtain nuclear power.
“If you do a military strike, it will mean that Iran, if it is not already making nuclear weapons, will launch a crash course to build nuclear weapons with the blessing of all Iranians, even those in the West.”
Theron Levin you may want to read the latest NIE report on Iran
http://64.233.169.104/search?q…..#038;gl=us
“This is the link to the el Baradei statement that Iran can have a bomb in six months. http://wcbstv.com/national/isr…..tml”
Did you notice all the conditionals and ifs in his statement? Your wording conveys panic and urgency, so I quote from the article directly:
That’s a pretty big “if”, and a pretty big “must”, and a pretty big “at least.” The Iran NIE comes to the conclusion that the joint probability of these things is not large enough to be significant. So please get off the Cheney bandwagon of fear.
Bob in HI
El Baradei’s statements are routinely misquoted and misconstrued in the US press – he has been very angry about the saber rattling but hey, who needs UN oversight?
Yeah, and it’s not like he has been right and the US government wrong on everything in the past. Oh, wait a minute, it is kind of like that…..
Certainly not the Bush administration , Aipac or other lobbying groups pushing for a military confrontation with Iran
Wonder if Congressman Wexler thinks about Israel signing onto the Non Proliferation treaty as Iran and Iraq had. Does he think that Iran would feel less threatened by Israel and their massive stockpiles of nuclear biological and chemical weapons?
Does he think that would be a good idea. Israel signing onto the very same agreement that they demand their neighbors abide by? Wonder if Congressman Wexler would put forth such a request or legislation to encourage Israel to do so
Crooks and Liars has this up about Sy Hersh
http://www.crooksandliars.com/…..ening-now/
I was able to hook Sy Hersh up with my friend Peggy Gish who is in Iraq right now for her 8th time since before the invasion. Peggy works with the Christian Peace Maker Team and they were in Iraq before the invasion and immediately started documenting that spring was was taking place at Abu Ghrarib. They were interviewing family members of people being held and some detainees who were being released. CPT offered these reports to the U.S. Military in the summer of 2003 and that fall. They military refused to look at those reports but Sy Hersh did not.
What Sy Hersh is one of the most serious journalist we have. He rocks
New Post Up Top! Or whatever the requisite notice is supposed to be….. (Psst; don’t tell anyone, Glen wins, Down goes Olbermann, Down goes Olbermann.)
Here’s what El Baradei said:
Mohamed ElBaradei: “If Iran wants to turn to the production of nuclear weapons, it must leave the NPT, expel the IAEA inspectors, and then it would need at least… Considering the number of centrifuges and the quantity of uranium Iran has…”
Interviewer: “How much time would it need?”
ElBaradei: “It would need at least six months to one year. Therefore, Iran will not be able to reach the point where we would wake up one morning to an Iran with a nuclear weapon.”
The 6-12 month clock doesn’t start ticking until Iran withdraws from the NPT AND kicks out the IAEA. What he’s saying is that we’d know long before they start.
Just to clarify, NPT withdrawal has a 3-month clock. Full-out enrichment could not start until after the three months ran out. So El-Baradei (as I read it) is saying that 3-9 months of Iranian flat-out enrichment of their allowed (under NPT) stock could be enough to obtain a weapon.
This is somewhat more optimistic, but not actually flat-out in contradiction, with what I believe is the most credible estimate of Iranian production, which is David Albright’s. It does seem to assume nothing goes wrong for the Iranians, which to date seems not to have been the case at all. If anything it has seemed unusually problem-plagued.
The thing about diplomacy is that you have to stop and think. Your research has to be abundant and adequate, and you have to admit you know only part of what you need to know.
You need to imagine how the other side sees the world and you, whether your objective is to craft a credible threat of “mutually assured destruction” or a credible exchange of value to minimize the risks of competing with them for limited resources. In CheneyWorld, “diplomacy” wins negative points. “Winning” the game requires shooting firstest with the mostest.
‘Not me.’ should read not one.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/…..62208.wmv/
William Kristol being provocative about Iran and Obama.
IRAN HAS OIL. WE WANT OIL. And here we go again… the drum beat about nuclear weapons. These guys don’t even change the playbook. But they don’t have to when they are dealing with us lemmings.
The above from Wikipedia
Whoever thinks Colby’s Phoenix Program in Viet Nam has ceased to exist doesn’t know the mythology. It’s just taken different shapes over the years.
don’t worry about it
by the time the world’s oil market gets wind of the Iranian threat to close the Persian Gulf to tanker traffic if Iran is attacked, the price of oil will hit $500 a barrel, and America’s economy will go to shit
should happen about tuesday …
cuz, you know, threatening to take Iran’s oil off the market by boycott is about the same thing, and will generate the same results
so george and Iran are making the same threat
cept that george doesn’t understand that he’s threatening our economy
oh for goodness sakes, isn’t it obvious that the Democratic Party in Washington does not oppose the neo-cons next agressive war?
They support it – all the faux feebleness is just kabuki, for the squares. Doesn’t Clinton’s ‘obliterate’ statement, and Obama’s finger-jabbing vow to do anything, anything to prevent Iran from progressing with its nuclear program – doesn’t this spell it out clearly enough?
The notion that the (D) party opposes the next cataclysmic war is just faith-based framing.
This is the primary reason I could never contemplate going to the voting booth and affirmatively supporting any candidate complicit with state murder on that scale.
and sorry, in the booth one votes for not against.
in cas e you think I’m crazy, or off-topic or something …
Shadow of War Looms as Israel Flexes its Muscle
Preparing the Battlefield by: Seymour M. Hersh,
Iran Threatens to Shut Down Persian Gulf Oil Lanes if Attacked
the price of oil should hit $200 a barrel tommorrow
but the good news is that American Military commanders think we can take the Strait Of Hormuz from Iran
guess we’ll be taking the Niagara Falls from Canada and the Panama Canal from Panama too
I don’t think these guys know what the fuck they’re doin …
Noone in congreess will sufer it will be th peons as usual. Tjey could give a rats as about we the people. It is every person for themslves and e pluribus unum means little to them. I agree with you and Marcy. I think our fearful bosses wash daily with anti character soap. What a bunch of sorry as bastard. My family served in the house of burgesses in williamsburg in the 1600s they were opposed to the oppression of King George now this new King George is reversing all we struggled to achieve under the constitution. These are revolting piants protected by their obfuscating congress.
And who is voting for these assclowns in the Fall? And why precisely?
I am voting 3rd party all the way, and THAT only so that my name doesn’t get purged from the rolls of voters as “inactive”.
I’d prefer not to vote at all because the entire government, both major parties, are 200% compromised and filled to the rim with criminals and robber barons.
emptywheel:
(re: Hersh’s piece). Do you remember that thing with ABC journalist Alexis Debat last year? He reported on these kinds of activities, then ABC disavowed the story.
Thank you emptywheel. This is so important, I feel like we should dog this story. Right now it seems we can’t even get our effete little dem majority to prevent ChimpCo from running this country head long into disastor.Who on earth does Cheney want to assassinate? He has no right.