Which Master Do These Rent-A-Generals Serve?

Finally, Ike Skelton has broken the thick silence surrounding Sunday’s exposure of the Pentagon’s Rent-A-General program.

Mr. Speaker, last Sunday, the front page of the New York Times included a story about the efforts of the Pentagon’s public affairs operation to influence retired military officers now working as military analysts for some of our nation’s largest media organizations.

I am very angry about the issues raised by the New York Times’ story, as are many of my colleagues who have called me aside to discuss it. The story does not reflect well on the Pentagon, on the military analysts in question, or on the media organizations that employ them.

Mr. Speaker, maybe I am too idealistic, but this story is appalling to me on a number of levels. For me, it all comes down to trust and credibility. And it would be a dangerous thing for the American people to lose trust in the Pentagon, in our retired officer corps, and in the press, each of which has a critical role to play in preserving our nation’s freedoms.

Through the years, I have frequently urged our military services to improve their efforts to tell America about the good work that is being done by our country’s sons and daughters in uniform. Our military services have an important story to tell, and public affairs offices are critical to that task. But credibility is paramount. Once lost, it is difficult or impossible to regain.

There is nothing inherently wrong with providing information to the public and the press. But there is a problem if the Pentagon is providing special access to retired officers and then basically using them as pawns to spout the Administration’s talking points of the day. There are allegations that analysts who failed to deliver the message required by the Administration mysteriously lost access to future briefings and information. I find this deeply troubling. We deserve to be able to trust the actions of the Pentagon.

We also deserve a retired officer corps that is worthy of the respect it receives from the American people, who place great faith in their judgment and loyalty to our nation. Americans trust our active duty and retired military, and rightly so.

I know a number of the retired officers employed by the media as military analysts to be honorable people. But the special access they are alleged to have received and the circumstances of their employment, without proper disclosure of their outside interests or biases, raise a number of uncomfortable questions that deserve serious answers.

Which master do these analysts serve?

The United States Government, which supplies their retirement pay?

The Pentagon, which may reduce the amount of analysis they actually need to do by providing detailed talking points promoting the current administration’s message agenda?

The defense contractors, who pay them for serving on boards or for their defense expertise, and perhaps more to the point, for their Pentagon connections?

Will their analysis, either by design or just by lucky coincidence, result in contracts or other advantages for the companies from which they take home a paycheck?

It hurts me to my core to think that there are those from the ranks of our retired officers who have decided to cash in and essentially prostitute themselves on the basis of their previous positions within the Department of Defense. I would hate to think that because a few people have blurred ethical boundaries and cashed in on their former positions that we might tarnish the military’s hard won reputation for professionalism and objectivity and love of country first and foremost.

Finally, I think our media have a serious responsibility to disclose potential conflicts of interest when they do their reporting. This applies to all of their stories, of course, and not just those that include retired officer military analysts. I understand that different organizations have different rules, but perhaps it would not be out of order for our journalism schools and professional journalism organizations to develop ethical guidelines for dealing with such issues.

Mr. Speaker, our nation’s military exists to protect America’s freedoms for citizens today and for future generations. The First Amendment guarantees the right of all Americans, including retired service members and members of the press, to speak freely and without restraint. But with our rights come responsibilities to act honestly and ethically. I have no doubt we will continue to discuss these matters in the days ahead.

Please call Skelton, (202) 225-2876, and thank him for condemning the program. You might suggest that an inquiry into the program would go some way to restoring the credibility of the military’s senior retirees. I also invite you to call Carl Levin, Senate Armed Forces Chair, (202) 224-6221, to invite him to join his counterpart in the House in condemning the Rent-A-General program.

Skelton spoke of "discussing these matters in the day ahead." If Skelton (and hopefully Levin with him) treat this threat to the credibility of the military seriously, we might actually get people to begin to report on the Influence Industry in Washington.

96 replies
  1. Hugh says:

    I was also surprised to hear on NBC News tonight a report about the Israeli bombing of a site in Syria last September. They reported the plutonium angle but ended with many analysts doubt that Syria ever had a significant nuclear program.

    • john in sacramento says:

      … They reported the plutonium angle but ended with many analysts doubt that Syria ever had a significant nuclear program. …

      Just thinking out loud here, but that location is out in the middle of the dessert from what I remember, and unless it’s on top of a large aquifer I don’t think that’s an especially good place for a “nucyaler” facility, because, um, don’t you need a whole lot of water? I mean to cool the fuel rods? And to heat up as steam for the turbines? And where are the power lines? And the lack of power lines might suggest that it’s a weapons facility, but, that doesn’t explain away the lack of water

      And not only that but why did it take them a year to come up with this story?

      Not that I’m a fan of Syria, but something doesn’t smell right

      Just thinking out loud

      • bobschacht says:

        Just thinking out loud here, but that location is out in the middle of the dessert from what I remember, and unless it’s on top of a large aquifer I don’t think that’s an especially good place for a “nucyaler” facility, because, um, don’t you need a whole lot of water? I mean to cool the fuel rods? And to heat up as steam for the turbines? And where are the power lines? And the lack of power lines might suggest that it’s a weapons facility, but, that doesn’t explain away the lack of water

        And not only that but why did it take them a year to come up with this story?

        That’s a pretty dry dessert. I prefer chocolate *g*

        But anyway, see my comment @8. Your suspicions motivated The Spook to look elsewhere for an explanation.

        Bob in HI

        Not that I’m a fan of Syria, but something doesn’t smell right

        Just thinking out loud

        • bobschacht says:

          Aack! I should have consulted my friend Preview. Let me sort that out again:

          In response to john in sacramento @ 13

          Just thinking out loud here, but that location is out in the middle of the dessert from what I remember, and unless it’s on top of a large aquifer I don’t think that’s an especially good place for a “nucyaler” facility, because, um, don’t you need a whole lot of water? I mean to cool the fuel rods? And to heat up as steam for the turbines? And where are the power lines? And the lack of power lines might suggest that it’s a weapons facility, but, that doesn’t explain away the lack of water

          And not only that but why did it take them a year to come up with this story?

          Not that I’m a fan of Syria, but something doesn’t smell right

          Just thinking out loud

          That’s a pretty dry dessert. I prefer chocolate *g*

          But anyway, see my comment @8. Your suspicions motivated The Spook to look elsewhere for an explanation.

          Bob in HI

    • Peterr says:

      Thanks on both counts, Hugh. Interesting that NewsHour is covering it.

      The NewsHour is probably one of the few places that can talk about this story without having to apologize for not vetting their “in-house military analysts” before putting them on the network payroll (either a regular gig or with an appearance fee). The NewsHour doesn’t have money to burn for things like that, so they don’t have egg on their faces in the way that the other networks do.

      • JohnForde says:

        I think you are right that they don’t compensate the ‘analysts’.
        But they still manage to burn through one hundred thousand dollars per episode.
        Almost none of it is public money.

  2. JohnForde says:

    EW What’s your take on the news push about the Israelis taking out the Syrian Nuclear site?

    • emptywheel says:

      Withholding judgment.

      Nothing we’ve seen so far explains, for example, why this was out there in bumfuck Egypt Syria. It doesn’t explain why you’d build it away from the river, rather than on it. It doesn’t explain why they say they have videos but apparently only showed a “video” of stills.

      It’s certainly possible (and possible, too, that it was a plain old nuke facility). But the Israelis have often manufactured intelligence (cf Iraq War). And we have no credibility either.

  3. Hugh says:

    John Stauber is doing a good job laying out the propaganda aspects. Bob Zelnick is a perfect tool. Media knew the generals reflected Pentagon views but they were employed because of “what they knew.” As for defense contractor ties, Zelnick says everybody knew about those too and that was all perfectly natural. Amazing or maybe not that Zelnick spent 21 years at ABC News.

  4. JimWhite says:

    Heh. He said “prostitute”.

    On a more serious level, this is way overdue, but a very good start. The responsibility to act honestly and ethically has been missing since the start of the Bush administration. I was also very happy that he called out the media and their role in this. The Times was way too lenient about the lapses by the press in this.

    • emptywheel says:

      From Skelton’s statement, I suspect he has some reservations, a sinking feeling that he’s about to open a very big can of very rotten worms. These guys–and I put Levin alongside him, both of whom deeply respect our military–have a lot of faith in the notion of professionalism.

  5. bobschacht says:

    Remember, this is a house of mirrors. FDL commenter Alfred “The Spook” Kelgarries had a different take on the bombing incident. If that blog interests you, be sure to look at the left sidebar for a series of half a dozen blogs that he wrote in that month last fall, soon after the incident.

    I’m not saying The Spook is right, because I don’t know. He’s got a lot of interesting links on this story, however. All I’m saying is to take any news reports on the bombing of that Syrian site with a teaspoon (not just a pinch) of salt, because what you’re probably hearing/seeing is a cover story designed to divert attention from the real story (journalistic equivalent of sleight of hand).

    Bob in HI

    • john in sacramento says:

      Hi Bob

      Do you have Alfred’s email? He has a small typo in the post you linked to, about halfway down

      At this point we must consider how many scenarios can be realistically constructed that this was the sort of “accident” the Pentagon is trying to portray it as being, given the facts we have in our possession. (Here is a late breaking report from the KXMS Television Station in Bismarck, North Dakota which illustrates just how unlikely any accidental scenario is.) So far, three major scenarios have emerged.

      Should be KXMB

      Useless trivia – Senator Byron Dorgan’s brother Darrell used to be news director at the station

      • bobschacht says:

        “And just what would the “real story” be?”

        Do you have your tinfoil hat on securely? The Spook’s analysis of the Syrian incident is part of the longer string of blogs that I cited before. Near the end of his analysis, he wrote this:

        A More Reasonable Yet More Terrifying Scenario

        Okay, at the end of the day both scenarios are, to put it bluntly, Horse Puckey. Given this fact, what in heck did happen up there that night? Your fearless and humble (yeah right!) blogger has a suggestion that you may find very unsettling, but also very had to disprove. It runs as follows, in a list format.

        * We know the planes in this raid could be outfitted with tactical nuclear gravity bombs.
        * We know an ELINT plane was with them on the raid. An ELINT plane would be required for operational security on any nuclear-armed mission.
        * We know they were flying in Turkish airspace when the “battle” happened. Turkey is the logical route for an attack on Iran, but not for an attack on Syria.
        * We know there is no reason to assume the target of their raid was in Syria, despite much FUD to the contrary, simply because Syria is so dirt poor it doesn’t have anything worth attacking at this time with that level of firepower.
        * We know that Israel has said it will destroy the Iran nuclear weapons facilities if it decides non-military options won’t work to prevent Iranian development of a single working nuclear weapon (one year away is suggested repeatedly as the trigger point).
        * We have reason to believe that the U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has deep connections to the right wing of Israeli military forces and politicians like Bibi Netanyahu, and that he would be more than willing to press for an attack against Iran to further his ambitions.
        * We have incomplete but worrisome evidence that an attempt to move U.S. nuclear weapons out of the authorized chain of command was only thwarted a week before in the Minot-Barksdale nuclear weapons fiasco.

        What does this all add up to?

        The actual events of September 6, 2007 may have been an interrupted Israeli raid on the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities using tactical nuclear weapons. This raid may not have been authorized by the top levels of the Israeli political system (or in other words, it may have been a rogue operation.)

        He then concludes,

        If you examine what we actually know, this scenario leaps out at you at once. The Israeli jets were sneaking through Turkey in the middle of the night when, for some reason, a SAM crew near the Turkish border detects them (perhaps due to excessive jamming from the ELINT) and lights them up with a SAM radar set, just in case they turn and enter Syrian airspace. The Israeli raid cannot tolerate this type of threat due to the nuclear weapons aboard; either under orders or on its own, one of the escort fighters attacks the SAM site and damages or destroys it. However, other SAM sites in the area are alerted and track the Israeli warplanes and fire on them. The Israeli planes, realizing operational secrecy has been lost, abort the mission and return to Israel. They cannot risk being shot down over Turkish soil with nuclear weapons. (A strong indication of the validity of this scenario is simple: extra fuel pods, of the type needed for a flight of 2000 kilometers or more, were found on Turkish territory after the “battle”. Such pods would not only not be needed for an attack on Syria, but would take up valuable hard points and reduce the fighters’ abilities to conduct operations significantly. This their presence strongly disproves any attack planned on Syrian targets.)

        What makes it very possible that this was a rogue operation is the insistence by the Israeli government (through their usual leakage channels) that the raid was “planned for months” and “done in cooperation with the United States.” This sort of remarks about a raid of this type are most unusual, and have the feel of the news conference expressing “complete confidence” in a subordinate right before he is fired.

        We may never know what happened that night over Turkey near Syrian territory. But if the theory I have expressed is even close to correct, it is the second time we have averted a nuclear attack on Iran by “luck” (the Minot incident in the United States counts as the first time.) Luck runs out, ask any casino owner. Let’s hope we find a peaceful solution to the problem of Iranian nuclear proliferation before our “luck” runs out as well.

        Does that answer your question?

        Bob in HI

        • kspena says:

          Put on your tinfoil hat and if you would, share your reaction to this: I’m interested in what your take is on the relation between cheney and the military. There are these foiled plots you quote. They made me recall that during 9/11 cheney ordered the military to shoot down any suspicious planes. His orders were intentionally not passed on to the operations people. Do you sense that the military is onto cheney’s plots and may be looking out to head off his nonsense?

        • bobschacht says:

          In response to bobschacht @ 40

          Put on your tinfoil hat and if you would, share your reaction to this: I’m interested in what your take is on the relation between cheney and the military. There are these foiled plots you quote. They made me recall that during 9/11 cheney ordered the military to shoot down any suspicious planes. His orders were intentionally not passed on to the operations people. Do you sense that the military is onto cheney’s plots and may be looking out to head off his nonsense?

          Yes, Fallon in particular. I imagine that he was alerted during the Syrian episode and that he issued some rather emphatic commands requiring immediate action. Cheney must be happy to see him retire.

          Based on The Spook’s analysis, and Cheney’s penchant for inserting his own people in every nook and cranny of the Federal Government (including the military), I’ll bet he has his own parallel command structure. Don’t forget that Rumsfeld was his ally, and is still probably esconced in some Pentagon office with all of his knowledge of the Pentagon in Cheney’s service. The real story of the errant bomber carrying armed nuclear warheads from ND to the staging point for the Middle East will never get an honest official read-out until after he is out of power– and maybe even not then.

          My tinfoil hat is getting hot– gotta take it off now.

          Bob in HI

        • kspena says:

          ‘bobschacht and kspena, is there a full moon tonight?’

          ah, it would seem so; but just wondering….

        • bobschacht says:

          “bobschacht and kspena, is there a full moon tonight?”

          Nope; full moon was a few days ago. It’s waning now. I stopped howling at the moon on Sunday.

          Bob in HI

        • readerOfTeaLeaves says:

          I’ll bet he has his own parallel command structure.

          No doubt he does.
          Perhaps Cheney flatters himself that his parallel networks are more ‘efficient’ than command structures that didn’t report directly to him.

          —————————
          BTW: A bit OT, but Crooks&Liars has a clip of Justice Scalia from a “60 Minutes” interview and his arrogance is chilling. Worth viewing.

  6. FormerFed says:

    Glad to see Skelton bring this up. The silence since the story broke has been pretty deafening.

    Not all retired Generals do this. One of my favorites is a retired two star that went to some small town in the Northeast and opened a drug store with his wife. I liked him when I served under him and even more when he retired.

    Regrettably, not all are like him.

    • emptywheel says:

      What’s the draw to the military contractors? TO finally make some big bucks, after a career of service? A sense that a retired general can better steward that industry responsible for the US’ (thus far) military superiority? Boredom?

      • randiego says:

        What every man of retirement age feels… the need to remain relevant – or to feel that way anyway – after years of being ‘the Man’…

      • sojourner says:

        I can tell you from some personal experience that it is “all of the above.” Some of them are attracted by the big bucks. Some are attracted because the military was the only place they could survive, so they set about trying to implement military-style discipline to shape up corporate environments. Others decide to become a big fish in a medium-sized pond, but, for the most part are rather inept at business dealings.

        It is probably somewhat akin to the Repug largesse we have seen for those who get their balls caught in a vise… They wind up landing someplace with their resumes intact and lots of money. I suspect most of these military people have run their strings out and had to go find something else to do.

  7. Hugh says:

    Re the Syrian site, if you look at the satellite photos of the building (the new one built on the foundations of the old one apparently), it is maybe about 15-20 thousand sq. feet. Please correct me if you have a better estimate. That is not very big for a nuclear weapons complex. All of this strikes me as hyped up hooey. My guess is this was a small research reactor. Do you notice that no one was giving estimates of how much plutonium it could theoretically produce? No talk of a processing facility for the plutonium. No talk of how hard it is to make a nuclear weapon using plutonium. No talk of what kind of design for a bomb Syria might have. No talk of what kind of a delivery system Syria had or was building for it.

    And then the real inside dope on all this is going to given to Congress by the severely truth challenged Mike Hayden. Jeez. All this stunk last September. It continues to do so. It’s the kind of grenade you would expect a neocon like John Bolton to throw into the NK negotiations. With him gone, Cheney apparently had no problems finding another equally enthusiastic loon.

    • bobschacht says:

      Re the Syrian site, if you look at the satellite photos of the building (the new one built on the foundations of the old one apparently), it is maybe about 15-20 thousand sq. feet. Please correct me if you have a better estimate. That is not very big for a nuclear weapons complex. All of this strikes me as hyped up hooey.

      That’s what The Spook thought, too (see my comment @8). In fact, he suspects that that Syrian site was not the original target of the airstrike. His speculation on the original target takes one in a very different direction.

      Bob in HI

  8. TheraP says:

    Newshour guest, Bob Zelnick: defending the practice of DoD’s insertion of surrogates onto news programs, nevertheless termed the retired military “analysts”:

    “Beltway Bandits.”

    Amazing how a defender can betray his own defense!

    • FormerFed says:

      “Beltway Bandit” is a long time term to label any consultant and/or company that surrounds the DC Beltway and does business with the government. I have no idea the amount of dollars involved but it is immense.

      I have been termed a “Beltway Bandit” even tho I live in AZ and most of my work was done outside of DC.

  9. klynn says:

    Here is Juan Cole’s original post on the bombing.

    http://www.juancole.com/2007/1…..syria.html

    This NYT’s article from Oct. 15th is interesting too. Note the correction.

    Why is this news coming back now? Interesting, Israel is shaken right now…

    • bobschacht says:

      Here is Juan Cole’s original post on the bombing.

      http://www.juancole.com/2007/1…..syria.html

      This NYT’s article from Oct. 15th is interesting too. Note the correction.

      Why is this news coming back now? Interesting, Israel is shaken right now…

      Juan’s analysis is good, if you grant his original premis that the original target was in Syria. But what if it wasn’t?

      See the comments by Mark Pyrez, “the Syrian Nationalist Pary”, and Charles of MercuryRising.

      There’s a lot of disinformation out there.

      Bob in HI

      • ProfessorFoland says:

        35d42m28s(N), 39d49m59s(E)

        behindthefall–the story goes that the Israelis wanted to hit it before the plutonium was loaded in, for precisely the reason you point out–hitting it after would generate a big mess. I take no position on the truth of this, just pointing out that the story does hold together in that respect. (On the other hand, I don’t know the legal technicalities of whether it’s possible that Syria was technically not in breach of NPT if Pu had not yet been loaded. I doubt it–I would guess that even unloaded, if it was indeed a nuclear reactor the site would still had to have been reported–but I’m not an NPT lawyer, or any other sort for that matter.)

  10. ProfessorFoland says:

    And it would be a dangerous thing for the American people to lose trust in the Pentagon, in our retired officer corps

    This whole Syria thing is a vivid demonstration of why the President would be better served by a credible Pentagon. Even if the nuclear allegations are true, no reasonable person is simply agreeing today that it must be a nuclear site if US intelligence says it is.

    Best coverage for those interested is probably at armcontrolwonk, esp this latest post. Jeffrey’s been all over this (and skeptical about the nuclear claims) from the beginning. (He calls the target “Box on the Euphrates” (BOE).) The site is close to the Euphrates river, and there is in fact what appears to be a secondary cooling loop pumping station on the river. So there is in fact plenty of coolant water nearby.

    Do note–if true, the reactor would constitute a pretty serious breach of the NPT, off-the-cuff the most serious one I can think of to date in the history of the treaty.

    Also note: it certainly sort of complements (if not exactly confirming) the wingnut case that “Saddam had nukes but he shipped them all to Syria!”

  11. ProfessorFoland says:

    At the risk of being annoyingly pedantic, I misspoke above–there is a nearby structure which could certainly be a secondary cooling loop pumping station. It is not definitively established that it is. In any case, there is no shortage of nearby available water for cooling.

  12. perris says:

    it will be our military, the generals, both retired and those not retired that we will need to count on if the president does create another “catastrophe”, declare martial law and suspend elections

    if there will not be blood in the street for revolt it will be because of the true heroes in our armed forces, those patriots once generals and still in service

    we are going to count on them and I fear those that would save us have been “retired”

    • JimWhite says:

      Yeah, on my more paranoid days, I still wonder if there actually was an unpublished insurrection after the Iranians captured the British sailors a couple years ago. I was convinced that was all Bush needed to attack Iran and wonder if he gave the order but everyone refused. Now with Fallon gone…

      As to the on the streets thing, in the end it would be the enlisted guys choosing on their own what to do. I really don’t think Americans would attack one another that way. If Bush manufacture the catastrophe and martial law as you suggest, I really think everything would come to a standstill and everyone would be in the streets until it was over just as in the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellites.

  13. behindthefall says:

    Why would anyone bomb a place they suspected of having plutonium. Plutonium dust, I have understood for some time, is about the most carcinogenic, long-lasting substance known. Why risk generating it and spreading it downwind for who knows what distance. If I had lots of toys and wanted to take out a plutonium site, bombs would be ‘way down on my list of preferences. But then, what the heck do I know?

  14. FormerFed says:

    EW, I would say that all the things you listed play some part, depending on the individual. However, I think the primary thing is ego. These folk have been at the center of the spotlight most of their lives – particularly the last few years of their careers as a GO. This fits a little with your boredom hypothesis, but ego really drives these people. When you have been “in charge” it is hard to sit on the sidelines.

    The old story about power and corruption is real. When people have been bowing and scraping about you, it is difficult to have to carry your own bag. Although – another favorite story – there was one Sec of Air Force that refused to let people carry his bag – really pissed off the colonels that were his retinue. The man was so self effacing that he served us coffee when we were at a prep meeting on a Saturday in his office before his Congressional testimony the next week. Talk about dropped jaws!!

    I can’t overemphasize the attraction of being exposed to the Sec Def. The military is a hierarchical organization and the SecDef’s inter sanctum is off limits to most of the military. To be invited into it on a personal basis is almost irresistible. The colonels would be peeing their pants if they got an invite.

    Conclusion – POWER, EGO, and then the influence (and associated bucks) from their military industrial contacts.

  15. PJEvans says:

    I remember we took a look at those pics last fall. There was a real question about their description of what we were seeing.

    Yeah, they started out calling this a video, but then said it was a Powerpoint presentation. I understand PP is more like a slideshow, not what most of us would describe as video (I don’t use it myself, but I’ve seen photos put together in a show using it).
    I wonder if they even know what they have, sometimes. [/s]

  16. randiego says:

    Hey if Bmaz is around, tell him I saw Bode Miller at a Celebrity Golf fundraiser last night.

  17. klynn says:

    This from the UK telegraph:

    China has betrayed one its closest allies by providing the United Nations with intelligence on Iran’s efforts to acquire nuclear technology, diplomats have revealed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new…..ran102.xml

    and this from today:

    The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Wednesday it had reached an agreement with Iran to examine allegations that Tehran has studied how to design nuclear weapons.

    http://afp.google.com/article/…..dZnWk84QEA

    But I guess China needed to “save face” so I hope their intel is true because it looks like “odd” timing to finally come forward when this hits the fan today:

    http://www.theaustralian.news……03,00.html

    CHINA is building a large underground nuclear submarine base at its sub-tropical Hainan Island, says Jane’s Information Group, specialists in military intelligence.

    Have you been following all of this EW?

      • klynn says:

        Unfortunately, for all of us, I imagine Ms. Lynne is following it or has to listen to no end to the one following it.

        I just have more “confidence in sunlight” when I know EW is tracking and pulling at a news thread.

  18. JimWhite says:

    OT– Wet noodle time for Domenici:

    Retiring Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., created an appearance of impropriety when he called a federal prosecutor in New Mexico to inquire about the timing of corruption indictments, the Senate ethics committee said Thursday.

    The committee criticized Domenici in a letter to the senator, but it recommended no punishment.

  19. alank says:

    It’s a load of old wank, as far as I can tell, what the speaker was delivering. I wouldn’ve got up on my hind legs and order him out of the House and not to come back until he can actually muster some criticism of the Pentagon.

  20. perris says:

    As to the on the streets thing, in the end it would be the enlisted guys choosing on their own what to do. I really don’t think Americans would attack one another that way. If Bush manufacture the catastrophe and martial law as you suggest, I really think everything would come to a standstill and everyone would be in the streets until it was over just as in the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellites.

    but you’re missing a big piece of the puzzle;

    what if depopularization is one of the goals?

    what then?

  21. BayStateLibrul says:

    God Bless Helen Thomas…
    If Dana P says it aint’s so, it ain’t so, so

    Q The President has said publicly several times, in two consecutive news conferences a few months ago, and you have said over and over again, we do not torture. Now he has admitted that he did sign off on torture, he did know about it. So how do you reconcile this credibility gap?

    MS. PERINO: Helen, you’re taking liberties with what the President said.

    The United States has not, is not torturing any detainees in the global war on terror. And General Hayden, amongst others, has spoken on Capitol Hill fully in this regard, and it is — I’ll leave it where it is. The President is accurate in saying what he said.

    …Q You’re denying, in this room, that we torture and we have tortured?

    MS. PERINO: Yes, I am denying that.

    • JimWhite says:

      Think Progress had video of the exchange. Pig Missle Perino gave the world’s worst smirk when she called on the next questioner. Before that person got their question started, Helen couldn’t contain herself any more and blared “Where is everybody?” and “For God’s sakes!”. She really is fed up with nobody else in the press having the courage to ask the hard questions.

      A number of us emailed her to thank her for doing that. It appears that she answers these emails individually. Helen Thomas is a national treasure.

  22. klynn says:

    Update on Syria news in the Guardian:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl…..inians.usa

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl…..sa.nuclear

    FAQ’s pretty good summary:

    Do the new US pictures prove Syria was building a nuclear reactor?

    Not definitively. The new pictures do strengthen the impression that a reactor was being built before the Israeli air raid last September, but there remain questions about the provenance of the pictures and the timing of their publication, with the experience of Iraq in mind. Analysts at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, question why there is no sign of security measures around the site, and say the building does not seem high enough for a reactor.

    What do the Syrians say?

    Syrian accounts have varied widely from the beginning. Officials at first said the Israeli sortie had caused no damage. President Bashar al-Assad told the BBC it was an “unused military building”, without being more specific other than to deny that the site was nuclear.

    Have independent inspectors been able to go to the site and investigate?

    No. The IAEA asked to inspect the site, but were denied permission by the Syrian government, who have razed the area since the air strike and built a similar building there.

    If the Syrians were building a nuclear reactor, would that be a breach of international law?

    Yes. Under the terms of Syria’s safeguards agreement with the IAEA under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, they would have to inform the IAEA as soon as they started planning a nuclear reactor.

    Is there anything significant about the timing of the release of the new pictures?

    Yes, it comes at a very sensitive moment in negotiations over the North Korean nuclear programme, which could take Pyongyang off the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. Some analysts have suggested the release of the pictures could be an attempt by Washington hawks led by Dick Cheney to derail that deal.

    And I’ll stand by my “questionable source” Juan Cole today:

    http://www.juancole.com/

    The US and Israel accused Syria on Thursday of building a secret nuclear reactor with North Korean help. There was a lot of innuendo in the press that the reactor was intended for nuclear weapons production. But AFP notes:

    ‘ They said US intelligence had “high confidence” that the structure bombed by the Israelis was a nuclear reactor, “medium confidence” that the North Koreans were involved in building it, and “low confidence” that plutonium from it was for nuclear weapons.

    Because other elements of a weapons program, such as a plutonium reprocessing plant, had not been detected, US intelligence was less certain that the plutonium was for nuclear weapons, they said.’

    We would have to know exactly what kind of reactor it was to know if it was suitable to help in a weapons program. As the Bush administration admits, there isn’t any evidence of that.

  23. klynn says:

    Here’s what we know…

    A month and a half ago AIPAC lobbied against states, such as Ohio, that were trying to pass legislation to divest in Iran and Iran supporting nations. AIPAC lobbied hard for reduced investment in Iran, not divestment and were strong on the need to not divest in North Korea, Syria and Sudan.

    A few weeks ago, a new Israel, pro peace process, lobby is formed called J-Street.

    Carter to Hammas.

    An Israel spy is outed.

    Israel puts out strong denials in the press that they did not have any spies in the US post Pollard.

    We discover many of our military secrets have been compromised, even recently, to Russia and over the years to the former Soviet Union due to a double agent in Israel.

    Food, water, power and sewage to Gaza strangled to a breaking point for the UN.

    Activity going on with other cases tied to AIPAC.

    And the list is longer. The fact that there is “a list” is worth noting and connecting…

  24. ProfessorFoland says:

    armscontrolwonk has posted the “video” of the Syria presentation. The video is a power-point-like presentation; it consists of about a dozen still photographs taken on the site, about a half-dozen still satellite images of the site, and a lot of spinning 3-d virtual reality of the Google-3d-Earth type. There’s a lot to deconstruct in the video. I didn’t get the sound, some of the presentation is borderline deceptive but maybe there’s an audiotrack that explains better what they’re showing. And I don’t agree with every conclusion in it.

    However, those are pictures of a nuclear reactor if I’ve ever seen one. And I have.

    The real question now is provenance. If those pictures really are from the site then it was a nuclear reactor.

  25. klynn says:

    http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter…..00806.html

    Statement by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei

    25 April 2008 | The IAEA Secretariat was provided with information by the United States on 24 April claiming that the installation destroyed by Israel in Syria last September was a nuclear reactor. According to this information, the reactor was not yet operational and no nuclear material had been introduced into it.

    The Agency will treat this information with the seriousness it deserves and will investigate the veracity of the information. Syria has an obligation under its safeguards agreement with the IAEA to report the planning and construction of any nuclear facility to the Agency.

    In light of the above, the Director General views the unilateral use of force by Israel as undermining the due process of verification that is at the heart of the non-proliferation regime.

    And this interview from the UN archives from October 2007 is worth reading…

    http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter…..81007.html

    One section I enjoy:

    BLITZER: As you know, the Israelis, in early September, bombed some sort of facility in Syria that was suspected of being a nuclear reactor, maybe a nuclear reactor built on a North Korean model. I know you´ve seen these pictures. You´ve seen the before and the after. What´s your conclusion? Was this a nuclear reactor that the Syrians were building in their country based on a North Korean model?

    ELBARADEI: Wolf, I´m very distressed, frankly, about this Syrian bombing because nobody – there had been chatter for the last few years. John Bolton three years ago went to testify before Congress and said there is concern about Syria. And yet, until today, we have not received information about any nuclear-related activities, clandestine nuclear-related activities in Syria. The bombing, again, happened, and we never, until today, received any piece of information. That to me is very distressful because we have a system. If countries have information that the country is working on a nuclear- related program, they should come to us. We have the authority to go out and investigate. But to bomb first and then ask questions later, I think it undermines the system and it doesn´t lead to any solution to any suspicion, because we are the eyes and ears of the international community. It´s only the agencies and inspectors who can go and verify the information.

    If Syria were working on a nuclear program, a clandestine program, then we´d obviously be able to draw the consequences. But today I don´t know where to go. I didn´t get any information. I contacted the Syrians. They said this is a military facility, has nothing to do with nuclear. And I would hope if anybody has information before they take the law into their own hands, to come and pass the information on.

    BLITZER: So what you´re suggesting, Dr. ElBaradei, is neither the Israelis nor the U.S. government – or for that matter, any other government – gave you any hard evidence to back up this claim that this was a North Korean modeled nuclear reactor.

    ELBARADEI: Or any evidence at all. Not only hard evidence, Wolf.

    BLITZER: I know you´ve seen some commercial satellite photos though of the before and after. Are there any conclusions you can draw based on what you´ve seen in those satellite photos?

    ELBARADEI: These are commercial satellite photos that we procured ourselves, has not been providing to us. And we´re still investigating them. We´re still comparing the pre and after. But in addition to us buying commercial photos, I would very much hope that countries will come forward if they have information so we´ll do – go through a due process.

    BLITZER: We´re almost out of time, but based on the commercial photos that you´ve seen from these satellite reconnaissance, are there any conclusions that you and your team have been able to come up with?

    ELBARADEI: Not at this stage, Wolf. Not at all.

    BLITZER: All right, and so it would be premature to allege that North Korea was proliferating in cooperation with the Syrians? Is that what you´re saying as well?

    ELBARADEI: That´s correct.

    BLITZER: Because I want to play a little clip of what the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, Peter Hoekstra, told me here on “Late Edition” last Sunday. Listen to this.

    [Begin Video Clip]

    [REP. PETER HOEKSTRA, R-MICH.: If North Korea or if Iran or other countries were involved in Syria, it, again, will be an indicator of what kind of agreement they will make and whether they would be willing to adhere to the agreements that they make in public.]

    [End Video Clip]

    BLITZER: Because he certainly seemed to be concerned, and he´s among a handful of members of the U.S. Congress who have been briefed by the Bush administration on what the Israelis did in Syria. He seems to suggest that you can´t trust the North Koreans at all because they´ve been cheating on their promises. I take it you´re not willing to go that far by a long shot.

    ELBARADEI: I can´t because I don´t have any evidence to support that assumption, Wolf.

    BLITZER: Would you like the Israelis to brief you on what they know?

    ELBARADEI: Absolutely, or anybody who has information. But you can´t trust anybody. We don´t work on the base of trust. But we – as President Reagan said, “trust and verify.” And what I want very much is to be able to verify whether Syria, in fact, were working on a nuclear power program in a clandestine way or not. And the only way to do that is get information and to go out and verify.

    BLITZER: You have a lot of credibility in these areas, Dr. ElBaradei, because before the war started with Iraq and the removal of Saddam Hussein, you were contradicting the Bush administration, insisting there was absolutely no evidence that Iraq under Saddam Hussein was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program. Do you feel vindicated as a result of that, as you go into this next round of fears that Iran may be developing some sort of nuclear weapons program?

    And to tie this all to the thread:

    Our military services have an important story to tell, and public affairs offices are critical to that task. But credibility is paramount. Once lost, it is difficult or impossible to regain.

    This goes for our leaders and our intel too. So again, why now? Where was this information back in September or October? There has been PLENTY of time to address this and there was plenty of time before the strike took place. We have a huge integrity problem and it is getting worse, which severely undermines our national/domestic security. Perhaps THAT is part of the intent?

  26. klynn says:

    And posted 16 minutes ago (the video is post with this link):

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl…..tworkfront

    UN Censors US and Israel Over Syria.

    And this is interesting too:

    http://afp.google.com/article/…..A8lzaw0BXw

    And this post from TPM is worth a read:

    http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsme…..narrative/

    …but when this bombing raid occurred on 6 September 2007, I was amazed at the pace of flow of what might have been highly classified information from high level Israeli intelligence officials and compartments within the US intelligence community to people like John Bolton.

    Bolton was one of the first to begin speaking publicly about the possibility that Israel’s target was a nuclear plant. I was on an Al Jazeera television program with Washington Institute on Near East Policy foreign policy expert Patrick Clawson on the morning of September 14th — and Clawson shared well-developed scenarios of what the Israelis might have done in Syria and why. His narratives were detail rich and obviously derivative of high quality conversations with intelligence insiders.

    If this story turns out to be right, then someone somewhere should ask why John Bolton is not being punished for trafficking in secrets that he no doubt got from Cheney’s apparatchiks in government.

    • ProfessorFoland says:

      nb that El-Baradei’s censure is for the lateness of the evidence, rather than its truth or falsity.

      I must disagree with this from the Guardian article you linked to:

      There is no tape from inside the alleged reactor, only two still photographs, apparently taken by a human hand on the ground rather than a drone or satellite. This was supported by satellite pictures and graphs.

      The pictures taken on the ground show an apparently empty brown-grey, solid building, but nothing that seems to indicate it is being used for nuclear purposes.

      There are a number of pictures taken from outside that, I agree, do no indicate that it is nuclear. However, there are three pictures purportedly from the inside (one of the fuel rod bases, one of the rebar, and one of the top of the concrete shielding) that are really just conclusively pictures of a nuclear reactor. They are rather less conclusively pictures of the site in Syria–which is why I think we ought to know a lot more about the provenance of these pictures.

  27. klynn says:

    This from Raw Story back in October still has some important facts that stand:

    http://rawstory.com/news/2007/….._1018.html

    This from the Federation of American Scientists in ovember is worth a read to put the Syria news in perspective:

    http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/category/north_korea

    A quote fro the article:

    The 2001 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and White House guidance issued in response to the terrorist attacks against the United States in September 2001 led to the creation of new nuclear strike options against regional states seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction, according to a military planning document obtained by the Federation of American Scientists.

    Rumors about such options have existed for years, but the document is the first authoritative evidence that fear of weapons of mass destruction attacks from outside Russia and China caused the Bush administration to broaden U.S. nuclear targeting policy by ordering the military to prepare a series of new options for nuclear strikes against regional proliferators.

  28. glitterscale says:

    I’m a Missourian and it is too late. I no longer trust any part of any corner of Bush’s govment. I don’t trust any body associated in any way shape or form with Bush or Cheney. And I’ve yet to trust the dems to clean out these nest of vipers because I haven’t seen it done yet. It may be true that they are acting as if they are abused wives or children, but you would think the newbys coming in would be able to set them straight. We cannot continue to build on this rotten foundation. We have to clean it out and make it whole. Nothing less will get us out of this and be able to deal with all the crises besetting us at once – food shortages, fuel shortages, global disasters, and stupid wars.

  29. masaccio says:

    Klynn, thanks for the CNN material. El Baradei is obviously angry that the US simply refused to use international institutions. Rightly so.

    • klynn says:

      El Baradei is obviously angry that the US simply refused to use international institutions. Rightly so.

      Most definitely.

      I think this is bad for the US in so many ways. There is caution on behalf the UN because “they” have been there before wrt the Niger documents being forgeries. (The credibility factor which EW thread above addresses)

      El Baradei has been asking for this intel information for a long time from both the US and Israel. Suddenly, 7.5 months later, there’s an urgent push on the narrative?

      So,

      If this story turns out to be right, then someone somewhere should ask why John Bolton is not being punished for trafficking in secrets that he no doubt got from Cheney’s apparatchiks in government.

      (from #67 above)

      and in terms of Israel,

      By its actions, Israel showed it is not interested in waiting for diplomacy to work where nuclear weapons are at stake.

      As a bonus, the Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.

      (from #74 above)

      (my bold)

      Might I note, Moscow comes out of this smelling like a rose while playing all sides. Although with Bush-Cheney, it’s probably his best way to respond.

      However, it appears we got a partial negotiation out of this tactic:

      http://www.iht.com/articles/ap…..r-Iran.php

      VIENNA, Austria: The U.N. nuclear monitoring agency on Wednesday announced a “milestone” agreement with Iran that aims to provide answers about allegations Tehran tried to develop nuclear weapons under cover of a peaceful atomic program.

      International Atomic Energy Agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming divulged no details in a brief statement about the deal. But IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei called the agreement “a milestone” that — if successful — should signal the end of his organization’s years of attempts to probe Tehran’s secretive nuclear program.

      “An agreement was reached during the meetings in Tehran on a process that aims to clarify the so-called alleged (nuclear weapons) studies during the month of May,” Fleming said in a statement from the Vienna-based agency. She was alluding to talks Monday and Tuesday between senior Iranian officials and IAEA Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen.

      and,

      VIENNA (Reuters) – The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Friday it confronted Iran for the first time with Western intelligence reports showing work linked to making atomic bombs and that Tehran had failed to provide satisfactory answers.

      The United States passed the intelligence, which came mainly from a laptop spirited out of Iran, to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2005 but out of fear for its spies only authorized the IAEA to present it last month, diplomats said.

      The IAEA said Iran had dismissed the intelligence as “baseless” or “fabricated”, but had provided increased cooperation on other issues in the past few months.

      I’m sure the time frame here is also the new deadline Iran faces.

  30. Neil says:

    OT

    Evans-Novak Political Report expects Democrats to make major gains in the Senate this November.

    Three GOP-held open seats (Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia) look ready to flip to the Democrats, and two Republican incumbents John Sununu (NH) and Norm Coleman (MN) are currently underdogs. Republicans have no good pickup opportunities. DNC

    What other seats in the Senate to Dems have a shot at?

  31. klynn says:

    The censure is for the lateness of such serious evidence which the UN has requested MANY times. The focus, rightly so, is the “lateness of the import level of intel”, as opposed to just simply “lateness”. Which is an important point.

    September 2, 2007 Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill said two days of talks between the United States and North Korea in Geneva had been substantive and would help to improve chances of success later this month when Japan, Russia, South Korea and China meet for six-nation talks aimed at ending the North’s nuclear weapons program and improving relations between North Korea and other countries.

    The strike happens on September 6, 2007

    This article from the Times UK on September 16, 2007 points out some important issues at play. This quote catches some:

    Syria possesses between 60 and 120 Scud-C missiles, which it has bought from North Korea over the past 15 years. Diplomats believe North Korean engineers have been working on extending their 300-mile range. It means they can be used in the deserts of northeastern Syria – the area of the Israeli strike.

    The triangular relationship between North Korea, Syria and Iran continues to perplex intelligence analysts. Syria served as a conduit for the transport to Iran of an estimated £50m of missile components and technology sent by sea from North Korea. The same route may be in use for nuclear equipment.

    But North Korea is at a sensitive stage of negotiations to end its nuclear programme in exchange for security guarantees and aid, leading some diplomats to cast doubt on the likelihood that Kim would cross America’s “red line” forbidding the proliferation of nuclear materials.

    Christopher Hill, the State Department official representing America in the talks, said on Friday he could not confirm “intelligence-type things”, but the reports underscored the need “to make sure the North Koreans get out of the nuclear business”.

    By its actions, Israel showed it is not interested in waiting for diplomacy to work where nuclear weapons are at stake.

    As a bonus, the Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.

    This weekend President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran sent Ali Akbar Mehrabian, his nephew, to Syria to assess the damage.

    Comments on North Korea
    Asst. Sec. Hill
    September 27, 2007
    In Beijing, China for the Six-Party Talks Assistant Secretary Chris Hill comments on talks with North Korea.

    Then Jan. 1, 2008 North Korea fail to meet it’s year end deadline:

    North Korea remained silent as the last hours of 2007 passed and it missed a year-end deadline to give a full accounting of its nuclear weapons.

    http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/T…..line/9863/

    Asst. Sec of St.,Hill goes to Moscow in mid January to discuss missed deadline:

    http://www.reuters.com/article…..5320080111

    Then on Jan. 10,2008

    South Korea (AP) — North Korea should provide a complete declaration of its nuclear programs before a new conservative government is inaugurated in South Korea next month, the top U.S. nuclear envoy said Thursday…Lee is set to be inaugurated February 25, ending a decade of liberal rule in South Korea by outgoing President Roh Moo-hyun and his predecessor Kim Dae-jung, who have largely pursued a policy of economic and political engagement with the North.

    On JAN 12, US states they will not set a new deadline for N. Korea

    http://www.voanews.com/english…..N=57860252

    Then on April 20, this NYT’s article is posted stating criticism about Bush being “soft” on N Korea:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04…..xy.html?hp

    http://www.iht.com/articles/20…..a/bush.php

    CAMP DAVID, Maryland: President George W. Bush dismissed assertions that his administration had softened demands that North Korea fully declare all of its nuclear activities, including secret efforts to enrich uranium and sell nuclear technology abroad.

    Appearing at the presidential retreat Saturday with the new South Korean president, Lee Myung Bak, Bush said that any judgment about North Korea’s willingness to dismantle its nuclear program – the core of an agreement negotiated last year – would come only once North Korea completed a declaration of its nuclear activities

    Now lets look at some timing since April 20, 2008:

    On April 23, 2008

    Gary Samore, vice president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the Bush administration has agreed to a compromise on demands for North Korea to confess the extent of its uranium-enrichment activities. Samore, a senior arms control negotiator in the Clinton administration, says the compromise is to allow the United States “to get into what it considers to be the most important element of the deal, the negotiation over the actual elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons.”

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/…..-cfr01.htm

    The same day this:

    The Bush administration said Wednesday it will not accept a North Korean nuclear declaration that does not fulfill Pyongyang’s obligations under the six-party disarmament accord

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/…..-voa01.htm

    Then this release from North Korea on the same day stating the desire to be a great powerful nation:

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/…..kcna01.htm

    Then this statement, a day later about hailing the recent nuclear talks with the US. A statement released from Moscow:

    “The talks were constructive and led to significant progress,” the Korean Central News Agency cited an anonymous source in North Korean Foreign Ministry as saying, without revealing further details.

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/…..osti01.htm

    Then we show the video the same day.

    In light of this timeline, yes provenance is the bottom line.

    (Sorry for the long post EW. I hope that the timeline at least grants me forgiveness.)

  32. klynn says:

    Hey EW,

    Just sent a comment which is very long because it is a timeline with a number of links. So it is probably sitting for an “okay”. The info is well worth looking at. Sorry for the long comment. Hope it’s okay.

  33. ProfessorFoland says:

    Though it’s labeled as for senior US officials, it’s clearly for the press.

    From that briefing, on Iran–they’re trying to backtrack on the NIE:

    The difference between fissile material – this nuclear grade or weapons grade versus running a plant is you just keep spinning it until it gets to be 90 percent highly enriched uranium. When we did our NIE, what we announced in our unclassified key judgments, that the Iranians had a secret program, secret program to produce highly enriched uranium, and they had a program designed to – working on the design of a nuclear device; meaning, think of it as an implosion device that would result in a nuclear warhead.

    When we published our NIE, we had not planned to make unclassified key judgments available to the public; therefore we wrote our estimate for a very sophisticated audience believing or understanding that they understood that in the program, it’s basically three large pieces: There is pursuit of fissile material; there is a delivery system – ballistic missiles or some other; and then there is weapons design. The only thing that the Iranians halted that we had awareness of was design of the warhead. They continue with ballistic missiles and they continue with fissile material pursuit. It was a secret program that they halted. They have never admitted that. So one of our concerns is, is there a connection with North Korea? If there is, we don’t know it. But is there something going on there that resembles this program that we we’re talking about in Syrian in Iran.

    That is a very large concern of ours, a major problem that we’re attempting to address. But our unfortunate choice of words in our NIE caused you all in the press to misrepresent what we were trying to explain. Three parts of the program; they halted one narrow piece of it, which was a secret program – weapons-head design. They continue with fissile material; they continue with ballistic missile systems for delivery. So we don’t know where it is at the moment.

    Emphasis mine.

  34. Hmmm says:

    klynn et al. — W/r/t provenance of the reactor photos specifically, what if anything shown in them indicates they were actually taken inside the Syrian facility? Is there any reason why those ones couldn’t have been taken inside the North Korean facility instead? Because seeing the North Korean nuclear program head and a number of seemingly Korean people wouldn’t be so unusual in a photo taken in North Korea. And while seeing the Syrian official in North Korea certainly would show a North Korea-Syria nuclear connection, it would be way, way weaker than seeing Koreans and a reactor inside Syria, and certainly not proof of a reactor being built in Syria with North Korean support. So I have to agree with klynn, in this case the interpretation of the interior photos is all.

    • klynn says:

      I submitted a question to El Baradei through the UN IAEA about what kind of timeline we could expect in the examination of the materials from the US to varify the intel and its’ authenticity? When I get a response, I’ll post it.

  35. bobschacht says:

    The piece by Juan Cole cited in the comments is specifically this:

    Syria Reactor Story a Diversion, But From What?
    Informed Comment – By Juan Cole – Apr 25, 2008 (Blog Post)

    This story seems to me fishy. Syria is a poor state. Where would it have gotten the money for a reactor? Why exactly are there doubts that North Korea was involved? How much of the intelligence is from US sources and how much from Israeli? The latter are highly politicized. The head of Mossad in 2002 expressed confidence that Saddam was close to getting nukes. More »

    The whole article is worth reading. One should remember the “high confidence” the US proclaimed about Saddam’s nukes. I’m willing to bet that they’re gaming this, trying to pass off genuine reactor photos as if they came from this desolate Syrian outpost.

    Bob in HI

    • Hmmm says:

      So I looked at the video presentation. This untrained eye saw nothing in the ‘under construction’ photos that would rule out them having been taken at some other location, not necessarily limited to North Korea. Though a photo of a North Korean reactor is included in the presentation, so it stands to reason that additional photos of that same North Korean reactor while still under construction might also have been available to whoever was assembling the presentation. And that would certainly explain the strong resemblance in the “comparison” section between the Korean model and the other photo — same reactor, same location, different time.

      For that matter, there’s been enough time since the strike to actually construct somewhere a dummy building shell as shown in the exterior photos, and take pictures of that too.

      Given the track record, I think something a little more verifiable than a “trust us” from the USG is going to be needed here.

      That said, none of this answers the Why now? question.

    • klynn says:

      Hey Bob, thanks for posting the link to Juan Cole again from 62. I hope it was understood that Juan Cole is someone I highly respect and my wording of introduction to his post today was simply snark to an earlier reference to Juan Cole.

      AC Wonk has a good read too.

      Pay attention to the language of the US presentation. Nothing finite in language. Almost hypothetical.

      I’m of the opinion to take in all security, arms control, ME foreign policy AIPAC news, United Nations IAEA and other valid sources, then stir it up into a time line in hopes of getting to the “Why now?”

      Not sure I’m there yet but there are some good “chucks” in the picture.

      I do like this point made at the Guardian FAQ’s:

      Is there anything significant about the timing of the release of the new pictures?

      Yes, it comes at a very sensitive moment in negotiations over the North Korean nuclear programme, which could take Pyongyang off the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. Some analysts have suggested the release of the pictures could be an attempt by Washington hawks led by Dick Cheney to derail that deal.

      • readerOfTeaLeaves says:

        Image provenance is important to ferret out accurately.
        ** If the image was shot on film, then tampering with it is a fair amount of work.
        ** If it’s a digital image, then it’s easy to alter; pictures of ‘fuel rods’ and ‘reactor parts’ can be dropped in a series of ‘layers’ (like a cake); each individual layer can then be moved and shifted to produce the desired final ‘composite’ image. (Hollywood and ad agencies do this all day long, all over the globe).
        ** Anyone interested can search ‘Photoshop layers’ or go here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlWfZeyvk9Y

        Video is more work to doctor, but it’s the same technology Hollywood uses to make ‘The Mummy’ or ‘the Bee Movie’ or anything that has special animated effects. (Game developers do this kind of thing all day long.)

        If the BushCheney administration isn’t willing to provide the IAEA with the **original photos and video** for forensic analysis, then the images should be assumed to be bogus.

        ——————–
        Add’l timeline items for klynn:

        – US aircraft carrier buildups in the MidEast (current)
        – Five Internet/phone cables in the Med were cut in recent months.
        – BushCheney got Fallon out of the way and put their special gofer Petraeus in charge.
        – BushCheney claim to have ‘proof’ of nuclear buildup that they refuse to show the IAEA, because of ’spies’ (coming from the same crew that outed Valerie Plame, it’s a bit ironic, but whatever…)
        – BushCheney have now had enough time to ‘institutionally sanitize’ the NIE that the Spooks Released Suddenly last November. Their newly sanitized, newly ‘refined’ NIE version enables them to reclaim the ‘caussus belli’ they lost last November.
        – Time is running out for BushCheney.

        This is starting to reek.
        Is Cheney being punked by the Israelis? or Putin? or Iran? or China?
        He’s being punked by someone. Who?

        • Hmmm says:

          Cheney might be getting punked by anti-stupid-war actors in the intelligence and defense communities. Not necessarily limited to the US.

        • klynn says:

          Is Cheney being punked by the Israelis? or Putin? or Iran? or China?
          He’s being punked by someone. Who?

          ROTL, could not agree more.

          IRT Photoshop, live with a Photoshop wiz. It is amazing what someone can does with the layers features.

  36. Hmmm says:

    AFP: Syrian vows to cooperate with IAEA over US nuclear charges


    IAEA inspectors should go into Israel (instead)… The real danger is the Israeli nuclear arsenal,” he added.

    The Syrian ambassador however heaped scorn on the US allegations.

    “Many lies in the past were used by the CIA to justify American intrusion, and interference in the domestic affairs of other states,” he told reporters.

    “The CIA should call on all its good elements to restructure itself so that they would provide the American public opinion with much more valid analysis,” he added.

    Jaafari said the US intelligence allegations were meant “to justify the Israeli attack” on the Syrian site and might also be linked to internal strife between hawks and moderates within President George W. Bush’s administration over its nuclear deal with North Korea.

    “Some hawks within the (US) administration are not happy with this deal,” he noted.

    Asked about reported pictures showing Syrian top officials with North Korean nuclear experts, he replied: “You can do anything these days with the sophisticated technology of intelligence.”

    • bobschacht says:

      Glenn has a blurry copy of the photo of the North Korean and Syrian nuclear officials, supposedly taken in Syria. I can’t see the car license plate clearly enough to tell whether it matches with a real Syrian license plate, nor whether if it does match, it also looks faked.

      Glenn also quotes a White House propaganda document with these words:

      The White House also used its statement as an opportunity to denounce the nuclear activities of Iran, which it says is a threat to the stability of the Middle East.

      There, you see? It is all about Iran, Cheney’s current obsession.

      Bob in HI

      • readerOfTeaLeaves says:

        Yeah, given Cheney’s obsession with Iran, I’ve sometimes wondered whether he was one of the prime ‘negotiators’ with the Iranians to keep those US hostages in 1980 until after the US elections.

        What is he trying to destroy in Iran that is such a big, dark secret?
        Color me confused.

        • bobschacht says:

          In response to bobschacht @ 86

          Yeah, given Cheney’s obsession with Iran, I’ve sometimes wondered whether he was one of the prime ‘negotiators’ with the Iranians to keep those US hostages in 1980 until after the US elections.

          What is he trying to destroy in Iran that is such a big, dark secret?
          Color me confused.

          I think Cheney wants unfettered access to Iraqi oil. I think that he thinks Iran threatens unfettered U.S./Halliburton/Exxon access to Iraqi oil. Besides which, Iran has a bunch of oil of its own, mostly in the Iranian southwest, adjacent to Iraq. So he probably wants to re-open the Iran-Iraq war in order to grab the oil-rich parts of Iran, then bomb the rest of Iran back into the stone age so that it presents no interference to American Halliburton’s exploitation of Iraqi-Iranian oil for decades.

          But of course that’s all wild-eyed speculation.

          Bob in HI

        • readerOfTeaLeaves says:

          Bob, it’s just hard to believe that even Cheney could conceivably be THAT stupid.

          Even a cold-hearted pragmatist, completely lacking in remorse and ruthless, ought to nevertheless retain enough basic information about the human species to understand that the world doesn’t turn solely on military or economic activities.

          IF you are correct, then color me dumber than a doorknob for failing to come to terms much sooner with the utterly breathtaking stupidity of the mindset you describe.
          Jeez.

    • klynn says:

      Thanks for the link to Glenn. He referenced some great articles and information.

      All I have to say is, this better be the real thing. If it is not, we will not have credibility as an intel community or within the global intel community for a long time. Nor will Israel. With all that is going on here with AIPAC, Franklin, Abramoff, the recent arrest of an Israeli spy and the whole secret Bush “ok” memo for West Bank expansion (God help us if a real letter exists).

      I hope the anti-war intel people move fast and restore our credibility.

  37. bobschacht says:

    Regarding the Syrian Caper and the Iran connection, be sure to read “Update II” by Glennzilla (scroll down). The take-home message:

    “He was telling the Chinese leadership that they’d better warn Iran that we can’t hold back Israel, and that the Iranians should look at Syria and see what’s coming next if diplomacy fails,” the person familiar with the discussion said. “His message was that the Syrian attack was in part aimed at Iran.”

    Now tell me again why The Spook’s hypothesis is outlandish.

    Bob in HI

    • klynn says:

      I agree this is about Iran but also a little bit about North Korea. Both have UN deadlines coming up. However, I did read an article yesterday (I’ll find the link) that said this will not affect North Korea’s status with the Six-Party talks, that this presentation served the purpose of looking tough on North Korea for the sake of Japan.

      Which means:

      …the Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.

      Thus, all about Iran.

      I hope we remember what Russia said if Iran is attacked:

      The barely reported highlight of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran for the Caspian Sea summit last week was a key face-to-face meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

      A high-level diplomatic source in Tehran tells Asia Times Online that essentially Putin and the Supreme Leader have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration’s relentless drive towards launching a preemptive attack, perhaps a tactical nuclear strike, against Iran. An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.

      I think we may also be dealing with some intel blackmail. I think we have uncovered how high up the Israeli spy infiltration is in our government. Each time we drop info on Israel, they will have something on us (like the West Bank letter.)

      The US-Israeli relationship is on the rocks behind the scenes. The fact that the Jewish community formed a new lobby group last month which states they are a “pro-peace negotiations” lobby (J-Street) only weeks before a spy is outed speaks loudly.

      http://www.jstreet.org/

      Bob, I posted a question no one has responded to. I’ll run it by you. The state of Ohio in February was passing legislation to divest state investments in Iran, and Iranian supporter states of North Korea, Syria and Sudan. AIPAC in Ohio lobbied hard (and was successful) to keep Ohio from full divestment in Iran and no divestment in North Korea, Syria and Sudan.

      What interest would AIPAC have except to end run the concept of financial sanctions and how effective they can be?

      For myself, it is yet more evidence that Israel does not want a peace process.

  38. klynn says:

    Hey Bob,

    This is a great write-up on J-Street. I’m surprised more has not been written about them.

    I’m beginning to see a relationship between their founding and what happened here in Ohio. They have some Howard Dean and Clinton history…

    http://leftofdayton.wordpress……ael-lobby/

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