The Personnel investigation into the firing of Walt Monegan–the one conducted by three governor appointees (Sarah didn’t hire all of them, but she can fire any of them)–has cleared Sarah Palin of any wrong-doing.

Since this outcome is almost certainly too little too late to help the McCain-Palin ticket, I’ll review the report sometime after we elect a new president. But this explains how the Personnel board came to the contradictory conclusion from what Stephen Branchflower did:

These findings differ from those of the Branchflower Report because Independent Counsel has concluded the wrong statute was used as a basis for the conclusions contained in the Branchflower Report, the Branchflower report misconstrued the available evidence and did not consider or obtain all of the material evidence that is required to properly reach findings.

So the governor’s appointees say Branchflower just answered the wrong question. And didn’t consider all the evidence–which is not surprising, of course, since Palin reneged on her promise to cooperate with the Branchflower investigation and the governor’s office refused to turn over emails clearly relevant to the attempts to fire Monegan. 

Also, the executive summary makes no mention of whether it was appropriate or not for Sarah Palin to allow her husband to use government resources to stalk her ex-brother-in-law.

Assuming the presidential election ends up being the blow-out it currently looks like, there are still some fairly interesting races tomorrow: Will we get to 60? (I doubt it, not even with a likely GA run-off.) How many of the Blue America candidates will win? (I’m guessing around 28–but a number of those folks are incumbents.) Will Michigan replace the odious Cliff Taylor with Diane Hathaway in the State Supreme Court? (I’m guessing yes, based on enthusiastic Dem turnout.) Will gay men and women in California retain the right to marry? (I’m optimistic they will.)

But I’m particularly interested in what we’ll learn tomorrow about the purported Bradley, cell phone, and ground game effects.

With all the aggregation of polls this year, we’ve got a pretty good sense of where polls have the race. So the actual results may give a reasonably good read on several questions that have been raised this race.

Bradley Effect

For example, one of the only ways McCain is going to win even a few of the states he needs is if Scottish Haggis is correct that some people have lied to pollsters about how they will vote–he’s simply too far behind on all the polling. And in Pennsylvania, which has become a make or break state for McCain, Obama is above 50% in all but two out of the 13 polls conducted in the last week, with few undecideds remaining. So if McCain is going to win, he going to win by getting support from people who are currently telling pollsters they are going to vote Obama.

Nate has pretty much debunked the Bradley effect here and here, though the only place he found a hint of Obama underperforming was in the Northeast, so it might be a concern for Pennsylvania. And my gut feel–from seeing white working class people who once supported Obama blare their support for McCain–is that if people were going to flip because of McCain’s fear-mongering, they already would have. 

Still, I think the pundits are still factoring in a Brady effect in their fairly conservative calls on EV predictions. Without a Brady effect–assuming polling averages are at all indicative of the true state of the race–then McCain’s going to be blown out. 

Cell Phone Effect

This morning, Nate showed that national polls that include cell phones in their sample show a a 4.4 higher lead for Obama, on average (9.4 versus 5), than those polls that don’t include cell phones (this is an even greater margin than the 2.8 point margin Nate has calculated before, so it probably also reflects a likely voter model that incorporates early voting).  If Nate is right, then Obama is going to have one hell of a blow-out tomorrow. Even the lower 2.8 point difference would put Georgia and Indiana over the top (Obama is currently behind 2.2 in Georgia and 0.9 in Indiana in the Pollster averages), and the higher numbers might put Arizona (Obama’s behind by 5.2) over the top–though of course the numbers may be lower if many of these polls are also including cell phones in their samples.

Ground Game

Most interesting, though, is the possibility that the polls are predicting Obama’s results too conservatively because they’re not taking into account ground game. Not all pollsters are even adjusting their likely voter models to account for the huge number of people–significantly weighted to Democratic turnout in every swing state but Colorado–who have already voted. One that has, though, is Gallup; it’s two likely voter models have converged, partly because of the large number of African-American voters who have already voted. It’s worth noting, then, that Gallup has the most optimistic numbers for Obama of all of Pollster’s recent polls: 53% to 42%.

But taking the Democratic advantage in early voting accounts for just one part of the equation. For example, Gallup shows the race among registered voters–rather than likely voters–to be 53% to 40%.

The gap in voter support for Obama versus McCain is slightly wider (53% to 40%) when the vote preferences of all registered voters are taken into account. The likely voter model typically shows a reduction in the Democratic candidate’s advantage, as has been the case with Obama this year. Nevertheless, Obama has been able to maintain a significant lead over McCain in recent days, ending in the 11-point lead in the final poll. It would take an improbable last minute shift in voter preferences or a huge Republican advantage in Election Day turnout for McCain to improve enough upon his predicted share of the vote in Gallup’s traditional likely voter model to overcome his deficit to Obama.

In other words, even with its huge margin for Obama, Gallup is calculating that Obama will lose a significant number of voters to either not voting or not having their vote count, and assuming that McCain will be able to improve on his relative weakness through the greater reliability of Republican voters. 

Now, I’m not suggesting that Obama’s going to improve his turnout tomorrow over what they’ve already done in early voting, except perhaps among youth voters. But I think likely voter models that presume Republicans will reliably turn out may turn out to be wrong, particularly since McCain’s rallies today are attracting one tenth of the crowd they expected, since Republicans are underperforming Dems in early voting (though still voting early at higher rates than in 2004), and since McCain has cannibalized his GOTV funds to dump into advertising.  

In other words, though Gallup’s likely voter models converged, its model(s) still assume healthy GOP turnout. But there are lots of reasons to think fewer people who say they’re support McCain will show up than Gallup and other pollsters think.

Don’t get me wrong–I think even the 11% Gallup is predicting is larger than Obama’s lead will be. I certainly don’t think Obama’s going to beat McCain by 13% or more. 

But I do think pollsters may be using overoptimistic numbers for GOP turnout, particularly at the state level. Which, again, might make the difference in states like Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, and North Dakota (where Obama slightly leads in the polls), and Georgia,Indiana, and Montana, where McCain has slight leads in the polls. (To say nothing of Arizona… Update: Jeebus, even AK is closing, though ground game won’t affect it.) On ground game, I’ll be watching Indiana particularly closely.  Ann Selzer, the pollster that accurately predicted the Iowa primaries this year, polled the state at 45.9% Obama and 45.3% McCain last week–basically a tie (and her polls do include cell phones). While Zogby and Big Ten have both had much bigger margins recently, it otherwise appears to be virtually tied in IN. So I’ll be very curious to see whether McCain can get his voters out to win the close one there. 

McCain & Keating Bahama Boondoggle

Teddy at the Campaign Silo pointed out yesterday, citing a damning new article in The New Republic, that John McCain was almost certainly the source for a set of illegal leaks during the Keating Five investigation — leaks that, if proven, would have been cause for his expulsion from the United States Senate for perjury, not to mention the underlying corruption and malfeasance from his relationship with Charlie Keating.

As The New Republic related:

One day in early March 1986, John McCain, an Arizona congressman, sat down to write a letter. McCain had heard that a long-time friend and donor, Charles Keating, was upset for being listed as a member of McCain’s campaign finance committee when a more prominent position would seem more appropriate. So McCain apologized. Needlessly it turned out, for "Charlie," as he signed his letter, would reply a few days later: "John, don’t be silly. You can call me anything…I’m yours until death do us part."

The entire article is a must read; it is a brutally clear exhibition of John McCain’s deeply ingrained, pathological, self serving dishonesty and soulless backstabbing lack of honor.

Now the thing that most, if not all, have overlooked here is the timing of Charlie Keating’s retort; it is not just that it was before McCain was sworn in as a United States Senator, it was right as Keating was pumping big money into McCain’s general election campaign for his first run at Barry Goldwater’s old Senate seat.

Charlie Keating wasn’t helping a friend, he was buying what he considered to be a future President. And they both knew it.

As Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Tom Fitzpatrick, who knew McCain intimately, both socially and professionally, presciently said back in 1989:

You’re John McCain, a fallen hero who wanted to become president so desperately that you sold yourself to Charlie Keating, the wealthy con man who bears such an incredible resemblance to The Joker. Obviously, Keating thought you could make it to the White House, too.

He poured $112,000 [amount later shown to be far greater] into your political campaigns. He became your friend. He threw fund raisers in your honor. He even made a sweet shopping-center investment deal for your wife, Cindy. Your father-in-law, Jim Hensley, was cut in on the deal, too.

Nothing was too good for you. Why not? Keating saw you as a prime investment that would pay off in the future.

So he flew you and your family around the country in his private jets. Time after time, he put you up for serene, private vacations at his vast, palatial spa in the Bahamas. All of this was so grand. You were protected from what Thomas Hardy refers to as "the madding crowd." It was almost as though you were already staying at a presidential retreat.

Twenty years later and Fitzpatrick’s words still drill right into the dishonorable heart of John Sidney McCain III.

What kind of man was Charlie Keating buying? A man just like himself; a man who was all ambition and no conscience. A man completely self centered and who had no compunction bleeding senior citizens dry, bullying and berating adversaries and corrupting the process of government. A man like John McCain.

It was a Faustian bargain. It was also a bad joke on the rest of us and a disaster for many old people who lost their life’s savings to Keating.

The money was never really Keating’s to give. But he never would have got his hands on it if you and the rest of the Keating Five didn’t halt the government takeover for two long years while Keating’s people continued their looting.

And now, the tab for the Savings and Loan heist must be paid from taxpayer pockets.

But the most telling part about John McCain is not that he was centrally involved in the Keating Savings & Loan scandal, many politicians get involved in political corruption scandals. Four others, although to a far lesser extent, were indeed involved alongside McCain in the Keating scandal. As bad as that was, the worse, and telling part about John McCain, was the lying and backstabbing of his friends and associates for the sole reason of saving his own pitiful skin. John Sidney McCain did not hesitate for one split second to plant and twist the shiv in the back of everybody around him, from Charlie Keating himself to his fellow Senators.

It was, and is to this date, classic John McCain. More from the late, great Tom Fitzpatrick in 1989:

Since Keating’s collapse, you find yourself doing obscene things to save yourself from the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation. As a matter of course, you engage in backbiting behavior that will turn you into an outcast in the Senate if you do survive.
…
Those who survive will be the sociopaths who can tell a lie with the most sincere, straight face. You are especially adept at this.
…
You sought out a master criminal like Keating and became his friend. Now you’ve discarded him. It shouldn’t be surprising that you are now in the process of selling out your senatorial accomplices.

You’re John McCain, clearly the guiltiest, most culpable and reprehensible of the Keating Five. (emphasis added)

Pat Murphy, the former editor and publisher of McCain’s hometown newspaper, The Arizona Republic, is another man who knew McCain well, as both a close friend and professional subject. Murphy had these words of wisdom and caution on the eve of McCain’s last Presidential run in 2000:

Those of us who’ve known John McCain since he began his Arizona political career made two mistakes.

First, overestimating the Washington media’s willingness to look beyond a politician’s self-serving façade.

Second, underestimating McCain’s skill in camouflaging his bullyboy ways and reincarnating himself as a lovable maverick glowing with political virtue.

If McCain becomes President, America will have more than a prickly president with a low boiling point. He carries grudges, fibs rather than admits mistakes, cannot endure criticism, threatens revenge, controls by fear, is consumed with self-importance.

My friends, this is the once and future John Sidney McCain III. It is an angry, unattractive and dishonorable picture, but it is the real deal. The real McCain. The singularly self serving, erratic, say and do anything dishonesty and perfidy exhibited in his campaign against Barack Obama are proof positive that he is indeed the same old McCain.

John McCain hasn’t changed, he never will. And he is not fit to serve as President of the United States.

Exactly a month before Tuesday’s election, the McCain team announced they were going to go negative.

Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama’s character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat’s judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said. 

With just a month to go until Election Day, McCain’s team has decided that its emphasis on the senator’s biography as a war hero, experienced lawmaker and straight-talking maverick is insufficient to close a growing gap with Obama. The Arizonan’s campaign is also eager to move the conversation away from the economy, an issue that strongly favors Obama and has helped him to a lead in many recent polls.

"We’re going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We’ve got to question this guy’s associations. Very soon. There’s no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Being so aggressive has risks for McCain if it angers swing voters, who often say they are looking for candidates who offer a positive message about what they will do. That could be especially true this year, when frustration with Washington politics is acute and a desire for specifics on how to fix the economy and fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is strong.

And the result???

 Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

I spent four hours doing GOTV in Jackson, Michigan today. Like Battle Creek, Democratic voters in Jackson will support both Blue America-endorsed congressional candidate Mark Schauer and Barack Obama. Like Battle Creek, Jackson is a predominantly working class small city that has suffered economically under George Bush–though there were a lot more union folks out helping on GOTV and a lot of positive energy in the campaign office.

But doing GOTV in Jackson was an extra special treat for me. It is (arguably) the birthplace of the Republican party.

After finishing my walk sheets, I went to the site of the meeting at which, in 1854, a bunch of abolitionists put together a slate of voters and called themselves "republicans"–called "Under the Oaks." Here’s what the plaque at the site reads:

Under the Oaks

On July 6, 1854, a state convention of anti-slavery men was held in Jackson to found a new political party. Uncle Tom’s Cabin had been published two years earlier, causing increased resentment against slavery, and the Kansas-Nebraska act of 1854, threatened to make slave states out of previous free territories. Since the convention day was hot and the huge crowd could not be accommodated in the hall, the meeting adjourned to an oak grove on "Morgan’s Forty" on the outskirts of the town. Here a state-wide slate of candidates was selected, and the Republican party was born. Winning an overwhelming victory in 1854, the Republican party went on to dominate national politics throughout the nineteenth century.

Funny–the historian who wrote the plaque didn’t have much to say about the Republican party’s legacy in the twentieth century (the park was founded in 1987, so the historian can be forgiven for his or her silence about what the Republican party has become in the twenty-first century!). As today’s Republican Party dumps millions into ads that use race to divide the country I couldn’t help but see the irony. Now, as their party desperately attempts to stave off a historic rebuke, race seems to be all it has left. Only look what those race politics have become.

Which is why it was so cool to GOTV in Jackson. After all, if Obama wins on Tuesday, it’ll do so much to fulfill the legacy of the Republican party that gathered in Jackson in 1854.  May the Midwest once again lead the country away from its terrible legacy of slavery and racism.

McPrickly/Cheney by twolf

Ruh roh, Ronald Reagan has formally endorsed Barack Obama for president! Okay, it is the non-zombie Reagan, Ron Jr., but still:

I assumed most people already knew that I had supported Obama. Anyone who has spent five minutes listening to my program would have known that. But if it helped to make it official, I’m happy to make it so.

This hot on the heels of the news that Dick Cheney, appearing at a Wyoming rally today, gave his glowing formal endorsement to John McCain.

The Salon War Room reports:

The vice president, who may still be a scary costume on future Halloweens even once he leaves office, told a Wyoming Republican event Saturday that he was "delighted" to support McCain and Sarah Palin. "I believe the right leader for this moment in history is Senator John McCain," Cheney said.

Whoo doggie. What a way for John Sidney McCain III to kick off the last weekend of his campaign. First, Ronald Reagan’s former Chief of Staff Ken Duberstein, one of the leaders of the ultra-influential Off The Record Club, flat out endorses Obama and says McCain isn’t fit for the office of President. McCain recovers by getting an endorsement, but it is from the only politician in America with a lower personal approval rating (15% last noted) than George Bush. And now Ron Reagan weighs in.

Very impressive.

In other news, as Marcy points out, John McCain is going to wrap up his campaign in Prescott Arizona.

I would suggest McCain’s decision to make the sentimental stop in New Hampshire, as much as the stop in Prescott, suggests McCain knows any stumping he does this weekend will do little good. Instead, he’s going to relive his glory days of surprise wins in New Hampshire; he’s going to try to elevate this losing bid in hopes it might some day have the same relevance as Goldwater’s 1964 presidential bid. McCain’s campaign stops this weekend are about McCain and his ego, not about mobilizing Republicans to go to the polls.

Yep, it is all about McCain’s ego alright. It always is with John McCain; he cares about only one thing in life, and that is himself. McCain constantly schleps into Prescott trying to lay claim to the mantle of Arizona’a own, Barry Goldwater. But McCain has no such claim, and he never has.

Unlike John McCain, who mindlessly gloms onto Prescott to falsely build himself up with the legacy of another, Barry Goldwater was a native son. Barry’s roots in Prescott were not false and fraudulent; they were real. Goldwater started and ended his campaigns on the steps of the Yavapai County Courthouse, smack dab in the middle of the historic downtown Prescott Town Square, because it was right across the street from the successor to the original Goldwater family store in Prescott.

The Prescott store was an immediate success. It was the first Goldwater store to carry a line of high-fashion goods and to adopt the motto, "The Best Always." At the insistence of Morris, who became manager in 1879, it began catering to ladies. Home fumiture, fumishings, and fancy goods rivaled liquor, tobacco, and flour. Among the store’s best customers were the bordello girls, who frequently purchased champagne at $40 a case. Morris soon became as indispensable to the community as to the store, practicing what he often said-that successful people had the moral duty to repay, by whatever means, the communities that had helped make them. It was a belief that Barry Goldwater would take seriously seventy years later when he pondered how best to repay his city of Phoenix for what it had given him.

Biographer Edwin McDowell points out that Morris and his father Mike, now fifty-five and referred to as the "old gentleman," set a high standard of community service. They were the first to pledge $5,000 in bonds for a railroad into Prescott, and Morris and two partners helped finance the construction of a railroad to Phoenix. Morris later helped develop mines and real estate throughout the territory and served as secretary of the Prescott Rifles, which protected the people from Indian attacks.

And then there was politics. Although only twenty-seven, Morris was elected mayor of Prescott in 1879 by an almost 2 to I margin. It was the first of his ten terms as mayor over the next forty-eight years. He also helped organize the Arizona Democratic party in the 1880s when the territory was under the control of a Republican administration. Known as a Jeffersonian or conservative Democrat, Morris later served as president of the twentieth Territorial Council and vice president of the crucial 1910 Constitutional Convention, which led to Arizona’s statehood in 1912. Following statehood, he was president of the Senate in the second Arizona legislature. He often said, and later repeated to his favorite nephew Barry, that if a man believed firmly in an issue, he should stay with it no matter what the odds or how heavy the criticism pounds, but he was determined to succeed at whatever he tried.

Over the decades, Goldwater’s grew into a statewide chain of very high end department stores (think Macy’s of the west) in Arizona, first under their predecessors, then Barry, and finally Barry’s brother Bob. As Bob Goldwater became older, the department stores merged into May/Robinsons in the early 1980s, and are now occupied by Macy’s.

Almost the entire time until Goldwater’s name merged into May/Robinson’s, Barry and Bob kept a small store open, operating at a loss, in the Prescott Town Square across from the Yavapai County Courthouse to honor the tradition and history of Goldwater’s in Prescott, because that is who they were and where they had come from. On a lighter note, all of the Goldwaters, including Barry, also knew what was on the opposite side of the Yavapai Courthouse from the family store, which was located on Cortez Street. That would be the infamous Whiskey Row on Montezuma Street, which had The Birdcage, The Palace, and Matt’s, hard drinking saloons one and all.

That is the history of a man in love with and tied to Prescott. Barry Goldwater had everything to do with Prescott Arizona; John McCain has nothing whatsoever to do with the town, it’s history, or for that matter, Barry Goldwater.

John McCain is a dishonorable fraud; he was never close to Barry Goldwater, and he carries not one single ounce of his legacy. Barry Goldwater did not like John McCain; in fact, he despised him as an unworthy carpetbagger in Arizona. The direct descendants of Barry Goldwater are voting the conscience of their conservative grandfather, rejecting John McCain completely, and strongly endorsing Barack Obama. The reason is because John McCain is so far from the quality of man that Barry Goldwater was that it is laughable.

John McCain, I knew Barry Goldwater, Barry Goldwater was a friend of mine, and you sure as hell are no Barry Goldwater. Quit fraudulently and dishonorably holding yourself out as his heir.

I drove to the hometown of Blue America-endorsed Mark Schauer today to make sure Mark beats crazy wingnut Tim Walberg. I wanted to knock doors in Battle Creek rather than Ann Arbor because it doubles my power–every person voting for Schauer will help put Obama over the top in MI, and every Obama voter should vote to ensure Obama has another ally in the House with Mark Schauer. Plus, Ann Arbor can be a big bubble of happy Democrats (as can the lefty blogosphere), and I wanted to get out of that bubble to see how more swing areas of the state are responding to this election.

And the drive and the canvass were worth it.

My canvass partner and I were working in a neighborhood that was almost exactly 50-50 African-American and white (with a few mixed race couples as well). There were some beautiful old houses, but a lot of houses that needed some work, too. A number of young families. We spoke to a lot of first time or sporadic voters. And our conversations are going to make a difference.

There was the African-American guy out raking his lawn. He said he was supporting Obama, but didn’t really engage at first. But then when I asked him if he knew where he voted, he got more animated. I explained which Church he votes at. I explained how he could vote a straight ticket or mark off all the Democrats he wanted to support. I reminded him to flip the ballot over to vote separately for Diane Hathaway to replace the odious Cliff Taylor in the State Supreme Court. I warned him to bring a photo ID to fulfill MI’s new photo ID requirement. And I explained the hours.

I can’t guarantee he’ll vote. But I can guarantee that having someone come to his house to explain how to vote will make it much more likely he will.

There were a bunch of people like this–people who were really enthusiastic for Barack Obama but were really happy to have someone explain where to go, what to do.  Twice,  when people called out from behind still-locked doors, "what do you want?" they immediately opened the door with a smile when I said I was an Obama volunteer). And then there was the mother and son who had registered to vote this year, but had not yet received their registration card–the campaign will follow-up to make sure they get out to vote. The campaign office had a sign in it that said for every 12 people you talk to, one will come out to vote who otherwise wouldn’t have. Between my canvass partner and I, there are at least three more votes for Obama and Schauer (and hopefully Hathaway), though I suspect the number is closer to 5 or 6. Repeat that hundreds and thousands of times, and it’ll make the difference in another state or two. 

This is not a normal election. There are thousands, millions of people out there excited to vote for Barack Obama. But they might not vote unless you get out there and hold their hand. 

Help get out the vote.

I think the press is misreading McCain’s plan to finish his campaign in Prescott, AZ on Monday, suggesting it’s part of Obama’s success at "forcing" McCain to campaign in Arizona. Sure, the tight race in Arizona has forced McCain to buy some robocalls. But the visit to Prescott–not exactly a center of population–is not likely to affect the results in Arizona. Rather, it’s partly McCain’s superstitious habit, and partly a concession by McCain that he’s not going to win and therefore he can spend the final days of the campaign making symbolic gestures.

Consider McCain’s travel plans:

Sen. John McCain will finish nearly two years of campaigning at an emotionally significant place — Prescott, Ariz., where one of his role models, Barry Goldwater, began and ended his own presidential campaign.

The next morning, he plans to vote in Phoenix, see a movie — an Election Day tradition — and await the results.

[snip]

Sen. McCain campaigns in Virginia and Pennsylvania on Saturday before ending the day with an appearance on "Saturday Night Live." On Sunday, he returns to New Hampshire, where he won big in the 2000 Republican primary and staged a remarkable comeback to win again there in this year’s primary. It will be his final town hall meeting. He winds up at a late-night rally in Miami.

On the final day of the campaign, Monday, Sen. McCain will make his way across the country — from Florida, to Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico and Nevada before finishing in Prescott.

He was last there in April, at the conclusion of a biographical tour of places that were formative in his life.

"Prescott, Arizona’s territorial capital, occupies a special place in the history of Arizona, and in the Goldwater legend," he said that day. "As everyone familiar with Arizona politics knows, Prescott is where Barry Goldwater formally began his Senate campaigns and his campaign for the presidency on the steps of the Yavapai County Courthouse. As his successor and in deference to his tradition, I have ended all my Senate campaigns here."

The Ohio trip yesterday made sense–it is one of the several states he needs to win, and one he actually might have a shot at (though, as with Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, enough people have already voted that late visits may have limited value). Virginia and Pennsylvania today? Miami tomorrow? A frenzied rush through Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, and Nevada on Monday? All of those are states that McCain needs to win (though polls show some of them to be increasingly out of reach). 

But note that McCain is doing one last town hall in New Hamptshire, the state that gave him two critical primary wins–after he has not done a town hall since his last one, on October 10, revealed the ugly racism his campaign’s attacks on Obama have unleashed. Obama’s currently got an 11-point lead in New Hampshire–the worst polling of any of the states he will visit between now and Tuesday. So it’s not like McCain’s visit is likely to win the state.

Now, to some degree, both the New Hampshire stop and the Prescott stop reflect McCain’s celebrated superstition. He’s gotta go where he always goes (Prescott) and where he has won (New Hampshire) because they might make him lucky this time around. And Obama’s just as much a fan of schmaltzy symbolism, from his announcement in front of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, IL (where Lincoln announced), and his speech in front of the Victory Column in Berlin. 

But Obama’s announced campaign spots all make sense electorally–all of them: Henderson, NV, Pueblo, CO, Springfield, MO today; Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, OH tomorrow; Jacksonville, FL, Charlotte, NC, and Manassas, VA on Monday. (Yeah, I realize he’s not in Arizona, bmaz.)

I would suggest McCain’s decision to make the sentimental stop in New Hampshire, as much as the stop in Prescott, suggests McCain knows any stumping he does this weekend will do little good. Instead, he’s going to relive his glory days of surprise wins in New Hampshire; he’s going to try to elevate this losing bid in hopes it might some day have the same relevance as Goldwater’s 1964 presidential bid. McCain’s campaign stops this weekend are about McCain and his ego, not about mobilizing Republicans to go to the polls.

Down to the nitty gritty. The big game is Tuesday. No, CTMET, I am not talking about University of Buffalo v. Miami of Ohio. I am talking The Obama State U v. McCain Community College. This OSU isn’t in the Big 10, and we are expecting victory baby!

But the good old boys at ESPN have been scheming to game the pre-election scene. Here is the play ESPN is running:

On the eve of the presidential election, with "Monday Night Football" from Washington as the backdrop, candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are planning to participate in one-on-one interviews on ESPN via satellite.
…
"We worked with our partners at the NFL to schedule a Monday Night Football game in Washington on this special night, and this presents a unique opportunity for John McCain and Barack Obama to reflect upon the last few months and address a large primetime audience on the final day of the campaigns," Norby Williamson, ESPN executive vice president, production, said in a statement.

It will be the first NFL game played in the D.C. area on the Monday night before a presidential election in 24 years. The Redskins defeated the Atlanta Falcons 27-14 on Nov. 5, 1984; Ronald Reagan was re-elected the following day.

The Redskins, in fact, are an accurate barometer for presidential elections. According to Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau, who coined the term "Redskins Rule" in 2000, the following bromide has held true for the past 17 presidential elections: If the Redskins win their last home game prior to Election Day, the party that won the popular vote in the previous election wins the White House; if the Redskins lose, the party that lost the popular vote in the previous election wins.

In this Monday’s case, a Steelers win would forecast an Obama victory; a Redskins win would indicate a McCain win.

Lovely. The last time we did this, Reagan won. And we are relying on the Steelers to win this time if we want Obama in the White House. Hope Willie Parker is back. On the plus side, maybe the Stillers will remember the pandering lie McCain pulled using them as a stage prop:

And then McCain told a rather moving story about his time as a P.O.W. "When I was first interrogated and really had to give some information because of the pressures, physical pressures on me, I named the starting lineup, defensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers as my squadron mates."

"Did you really?" asked the reporter.

"Yes," McCain said.

"In your POW camp?" asked the reporter.

"Yes," McCain said.

"Could you do it today?" asked the reporter.

"No, unfortunately," McCain said.

Here’s one reason he likely couldn’t do it today — the Steelers aren’t the team whose defensive line McCain named for his Vietnamese tormentors. The Green Bay Packers are. At least according to every previous time McCain has told this story. And the McCain campaign just told ABC News that the senator made a mistake — it was, indeed, the Packers.

Now that’s some locker room bulletin board material. Let us hope the Stillers remember the Maine McCain. Funny thing is, knowing McCain, I would place a fair wager that the first story about the Packers was a lie too; there is about zero chance that he would have known even the Packer’s line.

Okay, let’s get to the games.

National Favre League – Well, we know the Steelers have to beat the Redskins. In DC. Oy. Man, all the games this week are good matchups. Probably the two most interesting are the Cowboys at Giants and Packers at Titans. The ‘Boys are due for a resurgence. But not until Romo is back, and that isn’t this week. Gents win at home. Packers have three losses; the Titans have none. Titans are 4.5 point favorites; but my gut tells me this is the week the Titans have a blip and the Cheesers eke out a win.

Bretts at the Bills also interesting. I dunno what the deal is there; Bills are at home though, that is a good bet. Favre messed up by not beating the Raiders; if the Jets win that game, they finish the first half 5-3, instead it looks like 4-4. Cards at Rams and Fish at Broncs also pretty interesting games. I am going to take the upset on both; Rams nip the Cards in St. Louis and the Fish run their Red Grange play set through the paper thin Bronco defense.

One other biggie. Peyton v. Cassell. Don’t laugh, Cassell is getting more comfortable every game; he is now a competent, if not yet good, NFL quarterback. Colts have been in a major funk; pats way more solid than people would have thought. Marcy isn’t going to like this, and I don’t have a good feeling about it, but I’m taking the upset special yet again. Colts and manning bust out with a win. Oh, and by the way, looks like Tom is getting down on one knee for Giselle. Good thing it only requires one knee, that is all he has got these days.

NCAA Gridiron Glory – I want really bad for Texas Tech to whack Texas. Man would that be fun. I am generally for anything that screws with the heads of the twits that populate the BCS Committee, and boy would a Tech victory do that. The other huge game this weekend is Florida at Georgia. Both teams have proved to be more flawed than they were thought to be at the start of the season. Both have overcome the skittish play and seem to be on track now; this is going to be a war. And don’t forget the stunt Georgia pulled last year; that left a mark. Tim Tebow runs over the Bulldogs.

F1 Circus – Well, we are down to the last race of the season, the Brazilian Grand Prix. Young Lewis hamilton of McLaren leads Felipe Massa of Ferrari by seven points and it boils down to this:

Another Formula One season comes down to the last race of the year, with McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari’s Felipe Massa vying for their first career title at the Brazilian Grand Prix.
In a thrilling season in which seven different drivers won races and as many as four led the series in points, Hamilton arrives in Brazil for Sunday’s GP with a seven-point lead over home-crowd favorite Massa.
Hamilton needs only a fifth-place or better finish to ensure he becomes F1’s youngest champion at age 23, and the first British champion since Damon Hill in 1996.

"I have to look at things realistically and appreciate that I have another weekend of maximum effort ahead of me," Hamilton said.

Massa retains a chance to become the first non-European driver to win the title since Canadian Jacques Villeneuve in 1997, and the first Brazilian champion since the late Ayrton Senna in 1991. But he has to win or finish second and rely on Hamilton finishing down the field.

Ferrari leads Mclaren in the constructor’s standings by eleven points; not an insurmountable lead, but a solid one. Last year, Hamilton had the lead over Massa’s teammate at Ferrari, Kimi Raikkonen, going into Brazil and all hell broke loose and Raikkonen ended up winning the crown. Although my blood runs red for Ferrari, I think this is Lewis Hamilton’s year. Should be a great race to cap off an excellent season. Don’t count out Fernando Alonso, he may be out of the championship race, but he has been hot lately and would dearly love to upstage Hamilton and Massa to close out the year.

Well, that is the rundown my wheel friends. Whoop it up, suck some cool ones down, and enjoy the games. Why do we play the games? To win the games baby! Let’s get it on and trash it up!

UPDATE From the comments, per some commenter named Emptywheel:

For those who didn’t see this football-related news last night, Brigham Young’s direct descendant is telling his church to fuck off:

Former San Francisco 49ers’ Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young has two official “No on 8″ signs in the windows of his house in Palo Alto. On Friday, there were also three Halloween-themed signs in Young’s yard that also urged people to reject the gay marriage ban.

Young’s wife, Barbara, has also donated approximately $50,000 to the “No on 8″ campaign aimed at defeating Proposition 8. Steve Young, answering a doorbell ring at his home late Friday afternoon, declined to comment about the signs in his yard.

But in an e-mailed statement to the gay rights group Equality California, Barbara Young wrote: “We believe all families matter, and we do not believe in discrimination, therefore, our family will vote against Prop. 8.”

Good on the Youngs.

(this week’s video is Astronomy by BOC)

Put a fork in ’em. John Sidney McCain III and the Republican Grand Old Party have nothing left in the tank except for tired platitudes, creaky rhetoric, moldy and discredited policies, racism and anger.

Just four years ago, the right wing GOP was full of hubris and was bellowing of their dominion over American politics, their coming permanent majority, and discussing on what nominal terms they should allow the Democratic party to even exist at all in the future. Now they are nothing but a freak show of carnival barkers, sideshow clowns and carny hangers on like "Joe the Plumber".

McCain, and the GOP as whole, is in a time warp. The economic system is frayed well beyond the edges, the base of the real economy – jobs – is contracting at an alarming rate, and people are losing their homes left and right. They are still pitching tax breaks for the rich and deregulation. The world has bitterly turned on the US as a result of overzealous militancy in power projection, read incessant war, and the Republicans and McCain push for more of it. History is being made by a man of at least partial color who transcends color in an almost color neutral fashion, and they are relentlessly hawking the election in terms of racial strife and distrust, arguing that their fellow Americans are not American at all. This act was tired and divisive when the ultimate shill, Ronald Reagan, pitched it in 1980; now it is just pathetic.

Who are these monsters dancing the Time Warp? Let’s have some Halloween fun and have a discussion about who among the cast of McCainiac and GOP ghouls would be what character in our own little production of The Rocky Horror Picture Show.

So far, I have Karl Rove as the evil Dr. Frank N. Furter and John Sidney McCain III as Rocky Horror, the monster (McCain does lurch around like a stiff after all). I want really bad to have Sarah palin be janet, but it just doesn’t work I don’t think. Maybe Palin is Magenta!

I have an inkling that all my casting agent friends and family here at the Lake can do a far better job. Have some fun! We will also be adding some cool photos from Miss LaLisa Derrick live from the freak show down in West Hollywood a little later. One and all should post any good and scary links, videos, etc. in comments. Party On! Excellent!!!

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!