Governor-Appointed Panel Clears Governor of Wrong-Doing

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The Personnel investigation into the firing of Walt Monegan–the one conducted by three governor appointees (Sarah didn’t hire all of them, but she can fire any of them)–has cleared Sarah Palin of any wrong-doing.

Since this outcome is almost certainly too little too late to help the McCain-Palin ticket, I’ll review the report sometime after we elect a new president. But this explains how the Personnel board came to the contradictory conclusion from what Stephen Branchflower did:

These findings differ from those of the Branchflower Report because Independent Counsel has concluded the wrong statute was used as a basis for the conclusions contained in the Branchflower Report, the Branchflower report misconstrued the available evidence and did not consider or obtain all of the material evidence that is required to properly reach findings.

So the governor’s appointees say Branchflower just answered the wrong question. And didn’t consider all the evidence–which is not surprising, of course, since Palin reneged on her promise to cooperate with the Branchflower investigation and the governor’s office refused to turn over emails clearly relevant to the attempts to fire Monegan. 

Also, the executive summary makes no mention of whether it was appropriate or not for Sarah Palin to allow her husband to use government resources to stalk her ex-brother-in-law.

The Real Contest Tomorrow: Bradley v. Cell Phone v. Ground

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Assuming the presidential election ends up being the blow-out it currently looks like, there are still some fairly interesting races tomorrow: Will we get to 60? (I doubt it, not even with a likely GA run-off.) How many of the Blue America candidates will win? (I’m guessing around 28–but a number of those folks are incumbents.) Will Michigan replace the odious Cliff Taylor with Diane Hathaway in the State Supreme Court? (I’m guessing yes, based on enthusiastic Dem turnout.) Will gay men and women in California retain the right to marry? (I’m optimistic they will.)

But I’m particularly interested in what we’ll learn tomorrow about the purported Bradley, cell phone, and ground game effects.

With all the aggregation of polls this year, we’ve got a pretty good sense of where polls have the race. So the actual results may give a reasonably good read on several questions that have been raised this race.

Bradley Effect

For example, one of the only ways McCain is going to win even a few of the states he needs is if Scottish Haggis is correct that some people have lied to pollsters about how they will vote–he’s simply too far behind on all the polling. And in Pennsylvania, which has become a make or break state for McCain, Obama is above 50% in all but two out of the 13 polls conducted in the last week, with few undecideds remaining. So if McCain is going to win, he going to win by getting support from people who are currently telling pollsters they are going to vote Obama.

Nate has pretty much debunked the Bradley effect here and here, though the only place he found a hint of Obama underperforming was in the Northeast, so it might be a concern for Pennsylvania. And my gut feel–from seeing white working class people who once supported Obama blare their support for McCain–is that if people were going to flip because of McCain’s fear-mongering, they already would have. 

Still, I think the pundits are still factoring in a Brady effect in their fairly conservative calls on EV predictions. Without a Brady effect–assuming polling averages are at all indicative of the true state of the race–then McCain’s going to be blown out. 

Cell Phone Effect

This morning, Nate showed that national polls that include cell phones in their sample show a a 4.4 higher lead for Obama, on average (9.4 versus 5), Read more →

McCain Was The Most Reprehensible Of The Keating Five And He Hasn’t Changed

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McCain & Keating Bahama Buds

McCain & Keating Bahama Boondoggle

Teddy at the Campaign Silo pointed out yesterday, citing a damning new article in The New Republic, that John McCain was almost certainly the source for a set of illegal leaks during the Keating Five investigation — leaks that, if proven, would have been cause for his expulsion from the United States Senate for perjury, not to mention the underlying corruption and malfeasance from his relationship with Charlie Keating.

As The New Republic related:

One day in early March 1986, John McCain, an Arizona congressman, sat down to write a letter. McCain had heard that a long-time friend and donor, Charles Keating, was upset for being listed as a member of McCain’s campaign finance committee when a more prominent position would seem more appropriate. So McCain apologized. Needlessly it turned out, for "Charlie," as he signed his letter, would reply a few days later: "John, don’t be silly. You can call me anything…I’m yours until death do us part."

The entire article is a must read; it is a brutally clear exhibition of John McCain’s deeply ingrained, pathological, self serving dishonesty and soulless backstabbing lack of honor.

Now the thing that most, if not all, have overlooked here is the timing of Charlie Keating’s retort; it is not just that it was before McCain was sworn in as a United States Senator, it was right as Keating was pumping big money into McCain’s general election campaign for his first run at Barry Goldwater’s old Senate seat.

Charlie Keating wasn’t helping a friend, he was buying what he considered to be a future President. And they both knew it.

As Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Tom Fitzpatrick, who knew McCain intimately, both socially and professionally, presciently said back in 1989:

You’re John McCain, a fallen hero who wanted to become president so desperately that you sold yourself to Charlie Keating, the wealthy con man who bears such an incredible resemblance to The Joker. Obviously, Keating thought you could make it to the White House, too.

He poured $112,000 [amount later shown to be far greater] into your political campaigns. He became your friend. He threw fund raisers in your honor. He even made a sweet shopping-center investment deal for your wife, Cindy. Your father-in-law, Jim Hensley, was cut in on the deal, too.

Nothing was too good for you. Why not? Keating saw you as a prime investment that would pay off in the future.

So he flew you and your family around the country in Read more →

Negative Advertising … Epic Fail

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Exactly a month before Tuesday’s election, the McCain team announced they were going to go negative.

Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama’s character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat’s judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said. 

With just a month to go until Election Day, McCain’s team has decided that its emphasis on the senator’s biography as a war hero, experienced lawmaker and straight-talking maverick is insufficient to close a growing gap with Obama. The Arizonan’s campaign is also eager to move the conversation away from the economy, an issue that strongly favors Obama and has helped him to a lead in many recent polls.

"We’re going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We’ve got to question this guy’s associations. Very soon. There’s no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Being so aggressive has risks for McCain if it angers swing voters, who often say they are looking for candidates who offer a positive message about what they will do. That could be especially true this year, when frustration with Washington politics is acute and a desire for specifics on how to fix the economy and fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is strong.

And the result???

 Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

Getting Out the Democratic Vote–at the Birthplace of the Republican Party

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I spent four hours doing GOTV in Jackson, Michigan today. Like Battle Creek, Democratic voters in Jackson will support both Blue America-endorsed congressional candidate Mark Schauer and Barack Obama. Like Battle Creek, Jackson is a predominantly working class small city that has suffered economically under George Bush–though there were a lot more union folks out helping on GOTV and a lot of positive energy in the campaign office.

But doing GOTV in Jackson was an extra special treat for me. It is (arguably) the birthplace of the Republican party.

After finishing my walk sheets, I went to the site of the meeting at which, in 1854, a bunch of abolitionists put together a slate of voters and called themselves "republicans"–called "Under the Oaks." Here’s what the plaque at the site reads:

Under the Oaks

On July 6, 1854, a state convention of anti-slavery men was held in Jackson to found a new political party. Uncle Tom’s Cabin had been published two years earlier, causing increased resentment against slavery, and the Kansas-Nebraska act of 1854, threatened to make slave states out of previous free territories. Since the convention day was hot and the huge crowd could not be accommodated in the hall, the meeting adjourned to an oak grove on "Morgan’s Forty" on the outskirts of the town. Here a state-wide slate of candidates was selected, and the Republican party was born. Winning an overwhelming victory in 1854, the Republican party went on to dominate national politics throughout the nineteenth century.

Funny–the historian who wrote the plaque didn’t have much to say about the Republican party’s legacy in the twentieth century (the park was founded in 1987, so the historian can be forgiven for his or her silence about what the Republican party has become in the twenty-first century!). As today’s Republican Party dumps millions into ads that use race to divide the country I couldn’t help but see the irony. Now, as their party desperately attempts to stave off a historic rebuke, race seems to be all it has left. Only look what those race politics have become.

Which is why it was so cool to GOTV in Jackson. After all, if Obama wins on Tuesday, it’ll do so much to fulfill the legacy of the Republican party that gathered in Jackson in 1854.  May the Midwest once again lead the country away from its terrible legacy of slavery and racism.

Ronald Reagan Endorses Obama, McCain Still Fraudulently Glomming Off Of Goldwater

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McPrickly/Cheney by twolf

McPrickly/Cheney by twolf

Ruh roh, Ronald Reagan has formally endorsed Barack Obama for president! Okay, it is the non-zombie Reagan, Ron Jr., but still:

I assumed most people already knew that I had supported Obama. Anyone who has spent five minutes listening to my program would have known that. But if it helped to make it official, I’m happy to make it so.

This hot on the heels of the news that Dick Cheney, appearing at a Wyoming rally today, gave his glowing formal endorsement to John McCain.

The Salon War Room reports:

The vice president, who may still be a scary costume on future Halloweens even once he leaves office, told a Wyoming Republican event Saturday that he was "delighted" to support McCain and Sarah Palin. "I believe the right leader for this moment in history is Senator John McCain," Cheney said.

Whoo doggie. What a way for John Sidney McCain III to kick off the last weekend of his campaign. First, Ronald Reagan’s former Chief of Staff Ken Duberstein, one of the leaders of the ultra-influential Off The Record Club, flat out endorses Obama and says McCain isn’t fit for the office of President. McCain recovers by getting an endorsement, but it is from the only politician in America with a lower personal approval rating (15% last noted) than George Bush. And now Ron Reagan weighs in.

Very impressive.

In other news, as Marcy points out, John McCain is going to wrap up his campaign in Prescott Arizona.

I would suggest McCain’s decision to make the sentimental stop in New Hampshire, as much as the stop in Prescott, suggests McCain knows any stumping he does this weekend will do little good. Instead, he’s going to relive his glory days of surprise wins in New Hampshire; he’s going to try to elevate this losing bid in hopes it might some day have the same relevance as Goldwater’s 1964 presidential bid. McCain’s campaign stops this weekend are about McCain and his ego, not about mobilizing Republicans to go to the polls.

Yep, it is all about McCain’s ego alright. It always is with John McCain; he cares about only one thing in life, and that is himself. McCain constantly schleps into Prescott trying to lay claim to the mantle of Arizona’a own, Barry Goldwater. But McCain has no such claim, and he never has.

Unlike John McCain, who mindlessly gloms onto Prescott to falsely build himself up with the legacy of another, Barry Goldwater was a native son. Barry’s roots in Prescott were not false and fraudulent; they were real. Goldwater started and ended his campaigns on the steps of the Yavapai County Courthouse, smack dab in the middle of the historic downtown Prescott Town Square, because it was right across the street from the successor to the original Goldwater family store in Prescott.

Read more →

GOTV: It Makes a Difference

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I drove to the hometown of Blue America-endorsed Mark Schauer today to make sure Mark beats crazy wingnut Tim Walberg. I wanted to knock doors in Battle Creek rather than Ann Arbor because it doubles my power–every person voting for Schauer will help put Obama over the top in MI, and every Obama voter should vote to ensure Obama has another ally in the House with Mark Schauer. Plus, Ann Arbor can be a big bubble of happy Democrats (as can the lefty blogosphere), and I wanted to get out of that bubble to see how more swing areas of the state are responding to this election.

And the drive and the canvass were worth it.

My canvass partner and I were working in a neighborhood that was almost exactly 50-50 African-American and white (with a few mixed race couples as well). There were some beautiful old houses, but a lot of houses that needed some work, too. A number of young families. We spoke to a lot of first time or sporadic voters. And our conversations are going to make a difference.

There was the African-American guy out raking his lawn. He said he was supporting Obama, but didn’t really engage at first. But then when I asked him if he knew where he voted, he got more animated. I explained which Church he votes at. I explained how he could vote a straight ticket or mark off all the Democrats he wanted to support. I reminded him to flip the ballot over to vote separately for Diane Hathaway to replace the odious Cliff Taylor in the State Supreme Court. I warned him to bring a photo ID to fulfill MI’s new photo ID requirement. And I explained the hours.

I can’t guarantee he’ll vote. But I can guarantee that having someone come to his house to explain how to vote will make it much more likely he will.

There were a bunch of people like this–people who were really enthusiastic for Barack Obama but were really happy to have someone explain where to go, what to do.  Twice,  when people called out from behind still-locked doors, "what do you want?" they immediately opened the door with a smile when I said I was an Obama volunteer). And then there was the mother and son who had registered to vote this year, but had not yet received their registration card– Read more →

McCain’s Nostalgia for Victory and Relevance Tour

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I think the press is misreading McCain’s plan to finish his campaign in Prescott, AZ on Monday, suggesting it’s part of Obama’s success at "forcing" McCain to campaign in Arizona. Sure, the tight race in Arizona has forced McCain to buy some robocalls. But the visit to Prescott–not exactly a center of population–is not likely to affect the results in Arizona. Rather, it’s partly McCain’s superstitious habit, and partly a concession by McCain that he’s not going to win and therefore he can spend the final days of the campaign making symbolic gestures.

Consider McCain’s travel plans:

Sen. John McCain will finish nearly two years of campaigning at an emotionally significant place — Prescott, Ariz., where one of his role models, Barry Goldwater, began and ended his own presidential campaign.

The next morning, he plans to vote in Phoenix, see a movie — an Election Day tradition — and await the results.

[snip]

Sen. McCain campaigns in Virginia and Pennsylvania on Saturday before ending the day with an appearance on "Saturday Night Live." On Sunday, he returns to New Hampshire, where he won big in the 2000 Republican primary and staged a remarkable comeback to win again there in this year’s primary. It will be his final town hall meeting. He winds up at a late-night rally in Miami.

On the final day of the campaign, Monday, Sen. McCain will make his way across the country — from Florida, to Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico and Nevada before finishing in Prescott.

He was last there in April, at the conclusion of a biographical tour of places that were formative in his life.

"Prescott, Arizona’s territorial capital, occupies a special place in the history of Arizona, and in the Goldwater legend," he said that day. "As everyone familiar with Arizona politics knows, Prescott is where Barry Goldwater formally began his Senate campaigns and his campaign for the presidency on the steps of the Yavapai County Courthouse. As his successor and in deference to his tradition, I have ended all my Senate campaigns here."

The Ohio trip yesterday made sense–it is one of the several states he needs to win, and one he actually might have a shot at (though, as with Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, enough people have already voted that late visits may have limited value). Virginia and Pennsylvania today? Miami tomorrow? A frenzied rush through Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, and Nevada on Monday? Read more →

Trash Talk – Election Weekend Special Edition

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Down to the nitty gritty. The big game is Tuesday. No, CTMET, I am not talking about University of Buffalo v. Miami of Ohio. I am talking The Obama State U v. McCain Community College. This OSU isn’t in the Big 10, and we are expecting victory baby!

But the good old boys at ESPN have been scheming to game the pre-election scene. Here is the play ESPN is running:

On the eve of the presidential election, with "Monday Night Football" from Washington as the backdrop, candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are planning to participate in one-on-one interviews on ESPN via satellite.
…
"We worked with our partners at the NFL to schedule a Monday Night Football game in Washington on this special night, and this presents a unique opportunity for John McCain and Barack Obama to reflect upon the last few months and address a large primetime audience on the final day of the campaigns," Norby Williamson, ESPN executive vice president, production, said in a statement.

It will be the first NFL game played in the D.C. area on the Monday night before a presidential election in 24 years. The Redskins defeated the Atlanta Falcons 27-14 on Nov. 5, 1984; Ronald Reagan was re-elected the following day.

The Redskins, in fact, are an accurate barometer for presidential elections. According to Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau, who coined the term "Redskins Rule" in 2000, the following bromide has held true for the past 17 presidential elections: If the Redskins win their last home game prior to Election Day, the party that won the popular vote in the previous election wins the White House; if the Redskins lose, the party that lost the popular vote in the previous election wins.

In this Monday’s case, a Steelers win would forecast an Obama victory; a Redskins win would indicate a McCain win.

Lovely. The last time we did this, Reagan won. And we are relying on the Steelers to win this time if we want Obama in the White House. Hope Willie Parker is back. On the plus side, maybe the Stillers will remember the pandering lie McCain pulled using them as a stage prop:

And then McCain told a rather moving story about his time as a P.O.W. "When I was first interrogated and really had to give some information because of the pressures, physical pressures on me, I named the starting lineup, defensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers as my squadron mates."

"Did you really?" asked the reporter.

"Yes," McCain said.

"In your POW camp?" asked the reporter.

"Yes," McCain said.

"Could you do it today?" asked the reporter.

"No, unfortunately," Read more →

Let’s Do The Time Warp Again!

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Put a fork in ’em. John Sidney McCain III and the Republican Grand Old Party have nothing left in the tank except for tired platitudes, creaky rhetoric, moldy and discredited policies, racism and anger.

Just four years ago, the right wing GOP was full of hubris and was bellowing of their dominion over American politics, their coming permanent majority, and discussing on what nominal terms they should allow the Democratic party to even exist at all in the future. Now they are nothing but a freak show of carnival barkers, sideshow clowns and carny hangers on like "Joe the Plumber".

McCain, and the GOP as whole, is in a time warp. The economic system is frayed well beyond the edges, the base of the real economy – jobs – is contracting at an alarming rate, and people are losing their homes left and right. They are still pitching tax breaks for the rich and deregulation. The world has bitterly turned on the US as a result of overzealous militancy in power projection, read incessant war, and the Republicans and McCain push for more of it. History is being made by a man of at least partial color who transcends color in an almost color neutral fashion, and they are relentlessly hawking the election in terms of racial strife and distrust, arguing that their fellow Americans are not American at all. This act was tired and divisive when the ultimate shill, Ronald Reagan, pitched it in 1980; now it is just pathetic.

Who are these monsters dancing the Time Warp? Let’s have some Halloween fun and have a discussion about who among the cast of McCainiac and GOP ghouls would be what character in our own little production of The Rocky Horror Picture Show.

So far, I have Karl Rove as the evil Dr. Frank N. Furter and John Sidney McCain III as Rocky Horror, the monster (McCain does lurch around like a stiff after all). I want really bad to have Sarah palin be janet, but it just doesn’t work I don’t think. Maybe Palin is Magenta!

I have an inkling that all my casting agent friends and family here at the Lake can do a far better job. Have some fun! We will also be adding some cool photos from Miss LaLisa Derrick live from the freak show Read more →

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