Steve Schmidt Doesn’t Blame Palin

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picture-56.thumbnail.pngWell, to his credit, Steve Schmidt isn’t blaming the Wasilla Wonder for McCain’s loss. In fact, he looks to the Palin selection as a victory (though he doesn’t name her specifically), insofar as it reversed what Schmidt describes as Obama "running away" with the race until her selection.

And I’m very proud of the fact that when Senator Obama came to opening up the lead and running away with this race, in August, when he returned from his trip to Europe, that we were able to halt his momentum, and to figure out a way to get ahead in the race by the middle of September, which is something that nobody thought was possible for us to do. We needed to, at a strategic level, at our convention, excite the base, appeal to the middle, distance ourselves from the policies of the administration, and to, um, recapture the reform and maverick credential that had been whittled away. And, that strategy was succeeding, and it worked until there was an economic collapse, and I’m proud of the fact that John McCain got up and fought every day, in very trying circumstances.

But even in this statement, he betrays self-delusion. McCain’s Palin spike–and Palin’s favorables–reversed before the financial crisis hit hard; Lehman filed for bankruptcy on September 14 and McCain’s "fundamentals of the economy are strong" comment was on September 15, but McCain peaked closer to September 8 or 9. I first noted Palin’s falling favorability ratings on September 12, and by September 16, the fall in her favorability was noted by others. 

The polls reflected the early success of her strategy. In the three days after Palin joined Team McCain–Aug. 29-31–32 percent of voters told the pollsters at Diageo/Hotline that they had a favorable opinion of her; most (48 percent) didn’t know enough to say. (The Diageo/Hotline poll is conducted by Financial Dynamics opinion research; it’s the only daily tracking poll to regularly publish approval ratings.) By Sept. 4, however, 43 percent of Diageo/Hotline respondents approved of Palin with only 25 percent disapproving–an 18-point split. Apparently, voters were liking what they were hearing. Four days later, Palin’s approval rating had climbed to 47 percent (+17), and by Sept. 13 it had hit 52 percent. The gap at that point between her favorable and unfavorable numbers–22 percent–was larger than either McCain’s (+20) or Obama’s (+13).

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RNC to Audit Palin’s Panty Drawer

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And here’s my favorite line in the whole NYT Wasilla Wonder piece.

Republican National Committee lawyers were likely to go to Alaska to conduct an inventory and try to account for all that was spent.

Remember, there were allegations that some of Sarah’s $150,000 wardrobe was "lost." If they’re planning on flying to Alaska to "account for all that was spent," it suggests, first of all, that the loot is in Alaska, not in an upscale thrift store in, say, Phoenix (where the number of people who wear that kind of clothes is higher than it is in Alaska). It suggests that Palin still has it.

And it suggests that the RNC is skeptical they’re going to be able to find all of Palin’s new clothes.

Chalabi’s Lobbyist Was Sarah Palin’s Spy

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Wow. I finally try to catch up on sleep all the angst about just how bad Sarah Palin was explodes.

Here’s a detail I’m particularly intrigued by:

One of the aides tells CNN that campaign manager Rick Davis fired [Randy] Scheunemann after determining that he had been in direct contact with journalists spreading "disinformation" about campaign aides, including Nicolle Wallace and other officials.

"He was positioning himself with Palin at the expense of John McCain’s campaign message," said one of the aides.

Remember the leaks blamed Nicole Wallace for Palin’s $150,000 wardrobe (which apparently was even more expensive than that)? Fred Barnes blaming Wallace specifically? And then Barnes apologizing, reporting that it had turned out she wasn’t the one who had bought the clothes?

Well, apparently Randy Scheunemann was the guy spreading that false rumor. And Rick Davis confirmed that and fired Scheunemann.

Hmmm. Randy Scheunemann spreading misinformation to the Weekly Standard to accomplish goals that went undercut the stated interests he was pursuing. Where have I seen that before?

Oh, I know, Ahmad Chalabi!!!! Scheunemann was an early paid booster of the guy who used disinformation to get us bogged down in Iraq.

The Neocons discovered Sarah on their cruise to Alaska. Almost immediately after they convinced McCain to choose her as a running mate, they became her chief advocates within the McCain campaign. And here we find out that they were the ones who started the civil war that embarrassed the McCain campaign in its final weeks.

I guess McCain now knows why the rest of us so distrust Neocons.

Why Janet Napolitano Is Right For Attorney General

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The election is nigh 24 hours in the bank, and the rumor wires and scuttlebutt are exploding with discussion of the makeup of President-elect Barack Obama’s cabinet and staff to be. Attorney General is a critical post in any administration; but perhaps at no time in the history of the United States as important as at this moment.

The thankless task of recreating the once shining star that was the Department of Justice will take a special skill set from the person chosen to be the next AG. DOJ Main is a festering mess; stocked with Cheney/Bush political lackeys and consiglieri, unqualified and inexperienced Regent plants, and literal criminals that have aided and abetted the evisceration of our Constitution and commission of torture and other war crimes.

A department of expediency over honesty and integrity was grown by the Bushies. From DOJ Main down through the line level career prosecutors in the various District US Attorney Offices, credibility and trust have been felled. The once shining continuity of impartiality, justice and rule of law is in dysfunctional chaos.

Janet Napolitano is the right person, the best qualified and most suited, by far, to meet the daunting challenge ahead at Attorney General.

Napolitano is well versed and experienced with constitutional law and civil rights, having been mentored as the hand picked protege of one of the country’s great Constitutional scholars and authorities, John P. Frank, one of the two legal fathers of the Miranda decision. She has sizable long term experience not only as the Arizona Attorney General (a huge office), but also as chief executive of an entire state government as Arizona Governor. Of critical significance, she was the US Attorney for the District of Arizona for six years under President Clinton, prior to her terms in state office as Arizona’s AG and Governor.

The job ahead is going to, in addition to the legal skills, require someone with Federal experience and the established ability to manage a giant bureaucracy. Janet Napolitano has a very rare combination of background and experience to fit that bill. The attention to bureaucratic detail, not just in Washington DC, but in all of the 93 US Attorney district offices is going to have to be immense. Wholesale institutional change needs to be implemented, and malefactors rooted out.

Janet Napolitano has this ability in droves over any other candidate discussed for AG. She is spectacularly good at bureaucratic detail and Read more →

Palin and the Presidential

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I’m still synthesizing what to make of last night.

But I have to say I disagree with some of the early conclusions that Palin was a net negative for McCain. Here, for example, is Ambinder’s description of Palin’s role in McCain’s loss:

Sarah Palin. Polling shows that she drove some voters away from Sen. McCain and to Barack Obama. Voters judged her to be too inexperienced to be president. Also, instead of appealing to independents, she became a polarizing figure.  ALSO — her persona highlighted McCain’s age and health since she could have taken over. ALSO — her selection killed the "inexperience" argument against Obama.

Clearly, she was devastating in some states–a large number of voters flipped from McCain to Obama based on Palin’s presence on the ticket. But in some states, she made the difference between MCain winning (or losing narrowly) and losing big. The AP reports that nation-wide evangelicals made up a quarter of the turnout–which may well mean that evangelicals turned out in greater numbers, both in relative and absolute numbers, than they did in 2004. And in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana, they made up a greater proportion of the electorate.

In other words, in states with large African-American and evangelical populations (though there is overlap of course), high white evangelical tunrout may have kept McCain in the race. That may have been racism. But I doubt they would have turned out as enthusiastically without Palin as a draw.

Palin clearly was toxic for McCain in places like WI, MN, MI, and PA. But at the same time, Palin’s ability to attract evangelicals at high rates saved this from being a blowout. She certainly hurt him in the mountain West. So at that level, she was a factor in enough states to give Obama a close win.

But she also prevented this race from being a huge blowout.

Oh, and she has saved Don Young’s job and may well have saved Uncle Toobz’ job, for the moment.

Speaking as the Owner of a Perfect Storm Cap

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I’m glad Howard Dean didn’t let Chuck and Rahm claim all the credit for a big victory again, like they did in 2006.

This has been a truly historic, transformational election.  Tonight, our country chose hope over fear, the future over the past, unity over division.  This election also reflects the passing of the torch to a new generation.  Barack Obama inspired young voters across this country to answer the call and get involved.  They responded to his promise to put partisanship and divisiveness aside and come together as one nation to find solutions.  They turned out. They made calls. They knocked on doors. And they helped change our country.

The American people have given all of us – Democrats, Republicans and Independents – a simple mandate: to work together find big solutions to the big challenges facing our country.  We must work together to change the direction of our wonderful country and to restore America. With the help of strong Democratic majorities in Congress, President Barack Obama is going to set this nation on a course to provide the change we need.

Today I am humbled by what we have accomplished over the last four years. Together, we can build on this moment to bring our nation together and work as one to overcome the challenges we face. It is what we as Americans have always done.  Under Barack Obama’s leadership, we’ll do it again. [my emphasis]

 Though he didn’t exactly boast about how Obama won by following in Dean’s 50 State Strategy path.

Schadenfreude Three

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ohiosmall.jpg2004.

2008.

Though Fox called it for Obama, then un-called it, so we may not be out of the woods yet.

(Graphic by twolf.)

They Got Out Their First Time Voters

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picture-54.pngWhat a place to see this election–from downtown Detroit, in a relatively small precinct in a primarily African-American and Latino neighborhood.

And in this neighborhood, the first-time voters came out to vote. 

I won’t say exactly what the turnout thus far is (the voting location is at the left), but I will say that of the people who had voted before I left at 4, at least one out of six voters was a first time voter–and that’s only counting those voters who were so young that we actually asked or those voters who mentioned being first-time voters at some point in the process (and it doesn’t include all those who–because they have vertical drivers licenses–were clearly under 21). 

At least one out of six voters, first time voters.

And though, demographically, at least some of the Latino voters might logically be voting for John McCain, they certainly didn’t seem to be. The only person I felt certain voted for McCain was a loud, angry Irish-American wearing a Michigan Department of Corrections cap–a white prison guard living among people of color, and treating his neighbors as if he were still in charge even on the outside.

Because this is a small precinct, we didn’t really have bad lines, certainly not after the location got into its groove after the early morning rush. There were two problems, above all. First, a lot of the people who said they had been registered by canvassers this fall appeared not to be entered into the registration rolls; if these people didn’t have their registration cards, they would be forced to vote provisional ballots. The most heart-breaking of these was a woman whose daughter said they had registered together (her registration was fine). She said of her mother, "She hasn’t voted since Kennedy, but she wanted to vote this time."

The other problem we had was when Latinos had been registered–the problem appeared worst when they had been registered in canvasses–whose registrations had been entered incorrectly in the rolls. We played a kind of 20 questions to figure out what their registrations were. What’s your patronym? What’s your matronym? Okay, let’s try it without the hyphenation. My hero of the day is a 19-year old woman like this. We tried the book, the laptop database onsite, I called the war room and we looked in several online databases, all while she waited at least a half hour. Read more →