Arizona 407

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bmaz is having a real life today, so I’m going to have to point out that bmaz’s promise that Arizona would get close in the polls has come to fruition:

AZ-Pres: Hold on to your hats!

by kos

Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:23:38 PM EDT

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Likely voters

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47

The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they’ve hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would’ve polled Arizona instead of Tennessee.

And while you’re puzzling through the poll suggesting Obama currently has more votes banked in McCain’s homestate than McCain has, consider this. Before this poll came out, Nate had this to say:

It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes, which is where he’d end up if he wins all the states where we currently have him favored, plus North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Obama would have to win West Virginia to break the 400 barrier, and I don’t see that happening; the other long shot is Arizona, which hasn’t been polled in some time.

Of course, that was before this poll came out. But now this poll shows that Arizona is definitely closer than West Virginia and might well be closer than North Dakota and certainly is now one of those states that–if Obama has a blow-out come election day–he might well pick up. 

Now, I don’t really think Obama’s going to do that well. Some of these states will start going McCain’s way.

Still, just for shits and giggles, I invite you to relish the thought–just for a moment–that McCain’s home state is in range of being the state that would put Obama over 400 electoral votes. 

BREAKING!!! Hillary to Deliver Barack Obama’s Inaugural Address

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In yet another piece of evidence that Barack Obama will change how things are done in Washington, it appears that Obama will ask his former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination to deliver the inaugural address in January.

So says the NYT, in a story scoping out what color drapes Michelle has planned for the family quarters at the White House.

His transition chief has even drafted a sample Inaugural Address.

[snip]

Mr. Obama’s transition team is led by a former White House chief of staff, John D. Podesta, who has been preparing for the task at the research organization he runs, the Center for American Progress, since long before it was clear who would win his party’s nomination.

[snip]

Mr. Podesta has been mapping out the transition so systematically that he has already written a draft Inaugural Address for Mr. Obama, which he published this summer in a book called “The Power of Progress.” The speech calls for rebuilding a “grand alliance” with the rest of the world, bringing troops home from Iraq, recommitting to the war in Afghanistan, cutting poverty in half in 10 years and reducing greenhouse gases 80 percent by 2050.

The Grey Lady must have meant to imply that Hillary will deliver this address for Obama, since Podesta wrote that speech back when he was working to elect Hillary president. 

It’s a great idea, too, for Obama to have one of his biggest rivals to deliver his inauguration speech. After all, Obama is known for writing dull, uninspiring speeches; he can’t deliver them very well, either.  Thankfully, Podesta will save us from this kind of history-making speech and allow us all to get back to watching football. Or organizing our sock drawers–whatever it was we were doing before we started fighting to get our country back. 

In other news, Obama will appoint John McCain his Secretary of Treasury and Randy Scheunemann his Secretary of State.

Palin Family Values: No Relationship of Trust with Her Family?!?!?

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Yeah, I know. Someone on McCain’s team called Sarah Palin a diva. But I’m much more intrigued that that McCain adviser said Sarah "does not have any relationships of trust with … her family." 

A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

"Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."

Is this person honestly suggesting that Palin doesn’t have a relationship of trust with Todd Wormtongue? That he stalked Mike Wooten for two years–purportedly out of concern for her safety and the safety of her sister–but she doesn’t trust him? That she allows him to sit in on all of her cabinet meetings, not to mention her debate prep sessions? That she’s lugged her family around to so many campaign meetings it has made McCain’s people squirmy? That Todd submitted a potentially false deposition to Stephen Branchflower to downplay the degree to which he, Todd Palin, was orchestrating the pressure on Walt Monegan?  That Todd and she gave the personnel board investigator a sworn deposition yesterday, together? But she doesn’t trust him?!?!?!?!

Man. Circular firing squad is fun and all, but that’s just creepy.

They Don’t Make Ratfuckers Like They Used To

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I noted yesterday that, with the evidence that the cops may in fact have been the source of the "teach her a lesson" quote given to Pittsburgh’s TV stations (though clearly via the McCain campaign), one big question remained about the McCain team’s involvement in pushing Ashley Todd’s story to the press: who gave Drudge the picture of Todd.

It looks increasingly likely that the College Republicans gave Drudge the photo. We know, at least, that the friend whose house she went to before she called the cops, Dan Garcia, gave a copy of the photo to the College Republicans.

Mr. Garcia, 32, a first-year student at the University of Pittsburgh law school who also is from Texas, met Ms. Todd in May at a gathering of young Republicans in their hometown of College Station. On Wednesday night, she came back to his house, bruised and battered, and told him of the attack. He contacted police.

Mr. Garcia said his immediate response was to tend to the wound on her cheek. A police officer arrived, and Ms. Todd became belligerent when the officer asked where the mugging happened.

[snip]

Mr. Garcia took the widely published picture of Ms. Todd with her injuries. He said he took several photographs with a digital camera to document what had happened. He said he only gave copies of the photos to police and Ms. Todd’s employer, the College Republicans. One photo appeared on The Drudge Report on Thursday, setting off a storm of media attention.

Mind you, I don’t entirely buy Garcia’s story. Why, for example, was there a half-hour or longer lapse before he and Todd called the cops? And when he describes meeting her at a gathering of "Young Republicans" does he mean "College Republicans"?

But I do believe that he gave the photo he took of Todd’s face to the College Republicans. From there, the photo magically landed on the front page of Drudge.

Though it doesn’t take much magic for an incendiary photo to get from the hands of the College Republicans to the front page of Drudge.  

When “Mavericks” Clash

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Poor McCain. He has spent so much time insinuating that Barack Obama is a traitor that he failed to fight off the traitor in his own camp.

 Four Republicans close to Palin said she has decided increasingly to disregard the advice of the former Bush aides tasked to handle her, creating occasionally tense situations as she travels the country with them. Those Palin supporters, inside the campaign and out, said Palin blames her handlers for a botched rollout and a tarnished public image — even as others in McCain’s camp blame the pick of the relatively inexperienced Alaska governor, and her public performance, for McCain’s decline.

"She’s lost confidence in most of the people on the plane," said a senior Republican who speaks to Palin, referring to her campaign jet. He said Palin had begun to "go rogue" in some of her public pronouncements and decisions.

"I think she’d like to go more rogue," he said.

Aside from the delicious pleasure of yet another Republican firing squad story, this one is useful for its revelation that the neocons on McCain’s staff are trying to resuscitate Sarah Palin’s damaged image.

Palin’s loyalists say she’s grown particularly disenchanted with the veterans of the Bush reelection campaign, including Schmidt and Wallace, and that despite her anti-intellectual rhetoric, her closest ally among her new traveling aides is a policy adviser, former National Security Council official Steve Biegun. She’s also said to be close with McCain’s chief foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, who prepared her for the Oct. 2 vice presidential debate.

Lovely. Ahmad Chalabi’s lobbyist, Randy Scheuneman, continues to make a project of Sarah Palin. What do you think is more likely? She’ll sneak out of the country in the trunk of a car after having embezzled millions? Or she’ll trade code word intelligence to the Iranians?

Compare and Contrast: Two Allegations of Campaign Violence

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20081024ashley_todd_160.jpgI spent a good chunk of the day chasing down and then not reporting this story (which was first noted here) and related details about the McCain campaign’s involvement in pushing Ashley Todd’s story. But after chasing the story all day, I think we’d all be better off trying to calm tensions, rather than attacking the McCain campaign (yet) for pushing this story.

First, let’s look carefully at what we know the McCain campaign did (and let me make clear–I’m not ruling out the possibility that they did more than this, I’m just dealing with what we currently have evidence of). First, when called by a local TV station following up on the Drudge story, the campaign told the TV station that the attacker had said, "I’m going to teach you a lesson," and that the letter "B" stood for Barack. In addition, the campaign told the TV station that Palin had called Todd. Note–the station called the campaign, not vice versa. 

John Verrilli, the news director for KDKA in Pittsburgh, told TPM Election Central that McCain’s Pennsylvania campaign communications director gave one of his reporters a detailed version of the attack that included a claim that the alleged attacker said, "You’re with the McCain campaign? I’m going to teach you a lesson."

Verrilli also told TPM that the McCain spokesperson had claimed that the "B" stood for Barack. According to Verrilli, the spokesperson also told KDKA that Sarah Palin had called the victim of the alleged attack, who has since admitted the story was a hoax.

The KDKA reporter had called McCain’s campaign office for details after seeing the story — sans details — teased on Drudge. [my emphasis]

But let’s be clear: the campaign didn’t come up with the claim that the assailant wanted to "teach her a lesson." Todd did. I found numerous examples–like this one–that attribute precisely those words to the police, not the campaign, describing Todd’s allegations.

"He continued to kick and punch her repeatedly and said he would teach her a lesson for supporting John McCain," said police Chief Nate Harper. [my emphasis]

The cops were reporting that line contemporaneously with the rest of the allegations (this story appears to come from the first batch of story reported and printed in the 4PM to 6PM range). Read more →

Erratic McCain Chicanery On “Victory” Party

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awesome graphic by twolf

awesome graphic by twolf

Although the red faced McCain Campaign is now walking the story back and claiming it was all a mistake, the report over numerous press sources Thursday afternoon was:

John McCain’s election night watch party might be missing John McCain. Instead of appearing before a throng of supporters at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix on the evening of Nov. 4, the Republican presidential nominee plans to deliver postelection remarks to a small group of reporters and guests on the hotel’s lawn.

Aides said Thursday that the arrangement was due to space limitations and that McCain might drop by the election watch party at some other point.

McCain’s remarks will be piped electronically into the party and media filing center, aides said. Only a small press "pool" — mostly those who have traveled regularly with the candidate on his campaign plane, plus a few local Arizona reporters and others — will be physically present when he speaks.

The ultra-duplicitous McCain poohbahs are now spinning wildly and saying:

He’ll speak outdoors on the lawn in front of backlit Camelback mountains — it will be beautiful — and 2000 plus people will be out there with him. The rest of the guests will be in ballrooms and overflow tents with widescreen TV’s.

Right. Very believable. Or, actually, not.

Well, in the first place, this whole plan the McCain tactical geniuses clearly had hatched up, until people caught wind of it, is just bizarre. And make no mistake, there was too much detail in the original reports that were picked up by every major news source around; they were based on statements from the campaign in the first place. The McCain campers are just lying through their teeth again. The ballrooms at the Arizona Biltmore are HUGE. Here is a rundown of the main ballrooms available.

Frank Lloyd Wright Ballroom
The 24,576 square foot ballroom debuted June 2003 and offers and additional 10,798 square feet of pre-function space.

McArthur Ballroom
The 15,159 square foot McArthur Ballroom (formerly the Pavilion) debuted October 2002 and features an additional 6,400 square feet of pre-function space.

Conference Center
With over 30,000 square feet of space, the Conference Center features everything from boardrooms to the 11,000 square foot Arizona Biltmore Ballroom.

Grand Ballroom
With more than 6,500 square feet, the Grand ballroom opens onto the adjacent Squaw Peak terrace which can accommodate up to 1,000 people.

Don’t Read more →

Everybody’s Nailin Palin: LA Times Exposes Cronyism

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h/t Larry Flynt/Hustler

h/t Larry Flynt/Hustler

Ouch. If it weren’t for bad news, Sarah Palin might not have any news at all. In the first Troopergate investigation, conducted by the Alaska Legislature, Palin was found culpable of abuse of power as Governor. On the morning of her deposition in the second major investigation, this one by the Alaska State Personnel Board, Sarahdipity woke up to a skewering by the LA Times for rampant hiring of incompetent cronies for critical state offices. Looks like there may be a lot Palin has to answer for in her deposition.

* More than 100 appointments to state posts — nearly 1 in 4 — went to campaign contributors or their relatives, sometimes without apparent regard to qualifications.

* Palin filled 16 state offices with appointees from families that donated $2,000 to $5,600 and were among her top political patrons.

* Several of Palin’s leading campaign donors received state-subsidized industrial development loans of up to $3.6 million for business ventures of questionable public value.

* Palin picked a donor to replace the public safety commissioner she fired. But the new top cop had to resign days later under an ethics cloud. And Palin drew a formal ethics complaint still pending against her and several aides for allegedly helping another donor and fundraiser land a state job.

Some of her appointments make "Heckuva Job Brownie" look like Einstein. Tavis Colberg, Palin’s childhood buddy, was installed as the Alaska Attorney General in spite of the fact that he was barely qualified to appear in local Wasilla courts on worker’s comp claims. Franci Havemeister, another of Palin’s childhood friends, was made director of the Alaska State Agriculture Division. Havemeister was previously a part time real estate agent who stated a childhood love of cows as a qualification for the job. In multiple cases, Palin installed both husband and wife of family friends to cushy, well paid state positions for which they were unqualified.

As the New York Times has previously stated, Palin’s Wasilla High School yearbook now doubles as a veritable directory of state government.

Turns out Palin is to nepotism what McCain is to narcissism.

And, when it came to her friends and donors, Palin was as loose and generous with Alaska’s public coffers as she was executive jobs.

In one case, Jae G. Lee, a former Los Angeles businessman who is the proprietor of Party Time, a rundown grocery store and bottle shop in Anchorage, sought a $2.7-million state loan to buy an aging strip mall in midtown Anchorage. It was on the market Read more →

The Goldwaters Endorse Obama

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Ever since the primary campaign for President began, what seems so long ago, I have related to readers of Emptywheel and FDL just how strong of a distaste that long time native Arizonans have always had for John McCain. It is not just the "new McCain", that is a euphemism for silly big time journalists that got snookered by the self serving kiss up, beat down blowhard. The John Sidney McCain III that you see lashing out in anger and careening wildly is the same McCain we have always known. And the "we" includes legendary Arizona conservative Republicans Barry Goldwater and John Rhodes. John McCain does not possess the personal honor or character necessary to lead this nation.

Today, the direct descendants of Barry Goldwater vote the conscience of their conservative grandfather. CC Goldwater has this damning message to the McCain Campaign:

My grandfather had undying respect for the U.S. Constitution, and an understanding of its true meanings.

There always have been a glimmer of hope that someday, someone would "race through the gate" full steam in Goldwater style. Unfortunately, this hasn’t happened, and the Republican brand has been tarnished in a shameless effort to gain votes and appeal to the lowest emotion, fear. Nothing about McCain, except for maybe a uniform, compares to the same ideology of what Goldwater stood for as a politician. The McCain/Palin plan is to appear diverse and inclusive, using women and minorities to push an agenda that makes us all financially vulnerable, fearful, and less safe.

When you see the candidate’s in political ads, you can’t help but be reminded of the 1964 presidential campaign of Johnson/Goldwater, the ‘origin of spin’, that twists the truth and obscures what really matters. Nothing about the Republican ticket offers the hope America needs to regain it’s standing in the world, that’s why we’re going to support Barack Obama. I think that Obama has shown his ability and integrity.

After the last eight years, there’s a lot of clean up do. Roll up your sleeves, Senators Obama and Biden, and we Goldwaters will roll ours up with you.

And Alison Goldwater Ross chimed in with another devastating blow to the gut of the dishonorable cad that falsely claims the mantle of her grandfather:

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s "Political Insider" blog reported Tuesday that Alison Goldwater Ross, another granddaughter, already cast an early ballot for Obama in Read more →

Another Defeat for Voter Suppression

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This time in Wisconsin (h/t BR):

 A Dane County judge dismissed Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen’s lawsuit against the state’s elections board, saying Van Hollen had not shown that any state or federal laws had been violated.

The ruling comes just 12 days before voters will cast ballots for president.

Van Hollen sued the Government Accountability Board on Sept. 10, arguing the law requires the board to check registration information for more voters against driver’s license or Social Security records.

But Dane County Circuit Judge Maryann Sumi ruled this morning that Van Hollen had not shown any laws had been violated.

She said mismatched data in government databases are not enough to affect one’s ability to vote. The board has said the mismatches are often attributable to typographical mistakes or other harmless errors.

[snip]

Sumi went further and also ruled that Van Hollen didn’t have the power to bring the lawsuit even if he’d identified violations of the law.

It sounds like Van Hollen will appeal. But it also sounds like Sumi threw Van Hollen’s suit out on several different bases.

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