The Plot Thickens

So here’s how the plot was going to work. 20 men of South Asian descent, traveling in pairs, buy tickets for flights the US on-line. They pack their carry-ons carefully, with their bottles of acetone and hydrogen peroxide. They’re a little nervous as they approach Check-In, but confident that things will go well. And then the woman behind the desk asks the first question:

Tickets and passports?

The two South Asians look at each other, start stammering right away, their nervousness showing.

Um, uh, well, um, you see, we don’t have passports. But can you let us on a plane to America anyway??

At which point the ticket clerk starts laughing hysterically at the foolishness of anyone who believes you can get on a flight to America without a passport.

But don’t laugh! The big terror bust the other day? Not only didn’t the terrorists have plane tickets yet, but some of them didn’t even have passports!!!

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  1. howard says:

    when i first saw this story last night, i said that there must be some seriously pissed-off brits to let loose with this kind of information.

    the question is, will the american media bother to run with this story, or will it be a one-day wonder on one network?

    my money is with one-day wonder of course….

  2. Anonymous says:

    Or did the US snatch him, making him useless for a legal prosecution and possibly endangering the larger case in the UK?

    It kinda doesn’t matter. It’s one of those â€win-win†situations for Bush–who only ever appears to be concerned with public relations. If Rauf’s still in play for legal prosecution, the propaganda machine hails Bush as a terrorist-gettin’ hero. If Rauf’s now off-limits for prosecution, there is still huge propaganda value to seeing a dangerous terrorist walk thanks to quaint laws etc.

    There’s probably a PowerPoint slide somewhere up in the bowels of the White House that makes this exact point.

  3. Anonymous says:

    &y

    With the added benefit that you force the Brits into the same ethical quagmire we’re in in Gitmo.

    Huh, I guess you’ve got a point. Though there’s also the theory that they just wanted to torture him.

  4. emptypockets says:

    In the midst of all this great cooperation with one of our few remaining allies, we did several things which are going to make it harder for that ally to prosecute the bus-load of people they’ve arrested in this matter.

    also makes it harder for Britain — or any ally — to share intelligence with us in the future. A more long-term and severe problem I think.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Is it my imagination or does BushCo thwart success stories on terrorism every time. Here they force the plot broken up prematurely so Brits, diminishing Brits’ chances of successful prosection. As you go through the litany of screw ups what stands out is the choices made not to give the law the broadest chance at prosecution; not to develop a foreign policy that strives to define the root problems and meet them headon with proactive cultural options; not to use military actions to their best outcome in ToraBora, Afghanistan …no, what I’m getting at here is that the choices are made by BushCo to actually, maybe not nuture, but surely to enable the terrorist movement to grow and broaden, thus giving Bush the excuse to expedentially broaden his executive powers.

  6. Kagro X says:

    All I know is that my father in-law, a sometimes Rush Limbaugh listener, just flew back to Dulles from Heathrow on Friday, with a copy of The Guardian under his arm, a declaration that American news coverage was dispicable, and pronouncing his readiness to impeach Bush.

  7. dalloway says:

    â€The choices are made by BushCo to actually, maybe not nurture, but surely to enable the terrorist movement to grow and broaden, thus giving Bush the excuse to (exponentially?) broaden his executive powers…â€

    EXACTLY! I’ve been saying this since the run-up to Iraq. Bush needs and wants terrorism as much as any â€Islamofascists.†It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the financing/masterminding of 9/11 was pulled off by the same â€interests†(Saudi royals, American oil companies?) that put BushCo in power. Just ask yourself — over the past five years, who’s benefited the most from the War on Terror? And 9/11 didn’t have to be an elaborate plot to secretly blow up the towers, with conspirators all over the administration. All it took was money and ideas, put in the right place (Al Qaeda) by one or two wealthy sociopaths like say, Richard Mellon Scaife, who bankrolled the Clinton impeachment, which was the beginning of the same plan to ensure permanent power for the extreme right wing. Call me a looney conspiracy theorist with a tin-foil hat (the right wing would) but it sure sounds more plausible to me than Al Qaeda being a completely independent organization with no ties to any other political interests

  8. Mimikatz says:

    That’s what Suskind meant at the end of â€The One Percent Doctrine†when the CIA folks realized that bin Laden had released the tape to help Bush get elected. Their popularity rises and falls in tandem, and each needs the other to keep his narrative (and popularity) going. But what does it say that Bush is down to the low 30s in ppopularity?

  9. Anonymous says:

    Mimikatz: now that is is a tantalizing question…dalloway, sorry I’m a fool for spelling. Beyond the duh factor, this thought travels from stupidity to intent to calculating…as Cheney calculates how far up he can prop Bush. The most frightening thought of course is how, when one is as power hungry and defiant as Cheney/Bush/Addington are, can they walk away at the end of this catastrophe from the power they’ve held? So, what powers have they tucked away in their magic suit to use after they’ve LEFT (and I use the word loosely) office?

  10. Anonymous says:

    Just a small nitpick, emptywheel.

    Probably not dissolved nitroglycerin (which likely wouldn’t explode anyway). Most of the reporting says it’s acetone and hydrogen peroxide, to be mixed together.

    More commentary on the putative explosives here.

    Speaking of The One Percent Doctrine, though, the lack of passports and the possible lack of stuff to blow up the airplanes points up the limitations of that brilliant substitution for assessment of actual capabilities in threat assessments.

  11. Anonymous says:

    Do you people even have a clue as to how intelligence is gathered and investigations conducted?

    You’ve shown your ignorance by misidentifying the ingredients to be used and the chooses that had to be made. The Brits made the arrests–in fcat, they got ringleader today–and the courts will convict.

    Explain to me how the US acting as they did hurt any part of this. We stopped the deaths of thousands and got the guy who was al-Qaeda’s leader in Britain.

    For once, can’t you see that something Bush did was good for the country? Can’t you put aside your BDS and see that this saved the lives of Americans–both liberals and conservatives, black and white and man and woman?

    You people sicken those of us who want to win this war. Conservatives and Republicans never took the cheap shots you do when Bill Clinton did what was right with regard to national security. We were glad because the security of this nation overrides all.

  12. Anonymous says:

    First a minor point. I am not sure how long the procedure takes to gain a passport in the UK but I know just 3 months ago I invited a friend of mind to come with me on a trip to Italy and Amsterdam. he was able to obtain his American passport in a week.

    The normal process takes about a month but you can pay extra to have it expedited. Not to mention the terrorists may have planned to fake some passports.

    Your point about them not having airline tickets I am sure you realize is meaningless as you can buy a ticket the day before a flight. In fact some terrorist might want to wait to purchase his tickets until the last moment to avoid detection.

    Exactly how long would you have waited to have them arrested?
    It is reported the attack was planned for August 16th. that’s 3 days away. What if our intelligence had the date wrong?

    Call me crazy but as someone who flys to the UK regularly I prefer they round these guys up sooner rather than later. Much better to save lives and risk a blown prosecution than 10 blown up planes with no one left to prosecute.

  13. Anonymous says:

    scott and Ugly

    Well, neither of you nor I know how much evidence the Brits have against these guys. We know nothing about it. All we know is that the Brits thought they needed more evidence. To convict and to fully pursue their associates (note Rauf was tied into the Tube bombings as well, so I can imagine the Brits would like to roll up this network altogether). Now, seeing as how they know how much evidence they have and I don’t, I’m inclined to let them decide. They are, after all, the ones who first identified the plot. So I tend to trust them a little more than I do the guys in this country who only seem to be able to capture â€aspirational†terrorists.

  14. ahem says:

    Do you people even have a clue as to how intelligence is gathered and investigations conducted?

    Do you? Posting from Langley, are you?

    Somehow I doubt that they’d have showed up at Heathrow sans passport. But to get a passport at short notice, they’d have had to apply in person at a passport office. And the moment that happened, the authorities would know. Heck, if they were being watched, the ones with passports wouldn’t get through security.

    In fact some terrorist might want to wait to purchase his tickets until the last moment to avoid detection.

    Yes, because people who buy last-minute tickets aren’t ever considered worthy of additional screening. You obviously don’t fly that regularly.

  15. mainsailset says:

    The Brits identified the threat, were in the process of connecting the dots, asked by the US to pull the trigger on the plot before the Brits (allegedly) were ready. The outcomes here (as we know today) are that #1 not all of the members of the cell were caught (perhaps only 1/2) leaving up to 1/2 to regroup for another day and #2 the Brits don’t have the depth of a case for prosecution that they may have had if the Brits had used their own timeline. Today we are back to unknown. As I understand it, the Pakistan govt was informed and did indeed participate in an arrest, the US was informed and was working in concert, so perhaps it is reasonable to say that that kind of awareness could have allowed the Brits the luxury of time to complete the roundup of ALL of the cell. Perhaps not. But what we do know is that by stepping up the timing, close to 25 terrorists escaped and we are back to being fearful and oppressed by an elevated terror watch, again.

  16. Anonymous says:

    Actually I have to purchase last minute tickets occasionally and never once went through additional security at the airport in that circumstance.

    they may very well have screened me in advance (I certainly hope so)and determined I was no threat.

    There is no guarantee that additional screening at the airport would catch anyone. If you have been to an airport since 9/11 you know it’s not really all that much more difficult than it was before.

    I certainly see no difference in security returning to the states from the UK or other parts of the EU.

    leaving the US yes it has tightened up a bit.

    And again speaking only for the US; you do not have to go to the passport office to have a passport expedited. You just pay more money and request the service. A week later your passport comes in the mail.

    You certainly don’t to have to go to any passport office to have one forged.

  17. Anonymous says:

    No, I’m not posting from Langley. But I am close to someone who was involved in this weeks events.

    Of course I’m labeled a troll but my questions aren’t answered. Go read my site and what I’ve written about this post, I tracked back.

  18. Kagro X says:

    Conservatives and Republicans never took the cheap shots you do when Bill Clinton did what was right with regard to national security. We were glad because the security of this nation overrides all.

    That’s a good one. Nobody ever once said â€Wag the Dog†when Clinton took the first (and to date, only) serious shot at bin Laden. Nah. Not once.

    You set yourself up, Scott.

  19. Anonymous says:

    scott

    Okay, from your site:

    Of course this is proof to these idiots that Bush pushed the arrests up to get Lamont’s win off the front pages or somesuch garbage.

    Where in this post do you see anything suggesting I think they moved up the arrests because of Lamont? I’m also struck that you didn’t address the fundamental issue with Rauf, that we wanted to render him. Given the shitty red herrings we got from Abu Zubaydah (Padilla) and al-Libi (false claims of an Iraqi-Al Qaeda training effort), are you advocating we render and torture Raif rather than using proven methods of interrogation?

    My fundamental point here is that:

    It was the British who deserve primary credit for making this bust (Bush, as I pointed out, has only ever netted â€aspirational†terrorists).

    Yet we deign to tell the Brits how to do their job, when they have proven much more successful at this kind of thing (not least because of their experience in Northern Ireland)?

    Whatever happens with this case (and you don’t know that these guys will be convicted, no matter how loudly you claim they will), my concern–as I pointed out in my post–is that we will alienate one of the few allies we have left in this war. That concerns me. There are allegations already that the Brits held off on info sharing on this because of this Administration’s big fat mouth (no doubt learning the lesson of Mohammed Khan). It would be very unfortunate if they hesitated even more in the future because of our pushiness with this.

  20. jonnybutter says:

    The problem with UA and Scott’s argument is that they assume, at base, that the Brits didn’t know what they were doing (and of course they were cooperating with us!). Forget all the other stuff, this is what you’re saying. You might not like all the talk about the symbiotic relationship between Bush and Terror, but that’s incidental to what EW is talking about in this post. Either the brits were likely to let a major terrorist attack happen or they weren’t. That they were is a much wilder and more bizarre speculation than the others in this thread. Prove it.

    This ’administration’ is famous for fucking-up virtually everything they touch. There’s obviously a method to their madness, though – you can’t be this bad arbitrarily, it has to be intentional in a sense, there has to be a logic to it, however weird. I think EW and all of us are just doing what we’ve been doing for years now: trying to figure out the strange logic at work here.

    If either of you guys can illucidate that for us in any way, I would appreciate it.

  21. Kagro X says:

    You give them more credit than they’re worth, jb. My problem with Scott’s argument, as I said above, is that it prominently denies events that nearly all Americans can recall off the top of their heads. After that, it might as well all be Flat Earth theory.

  22. howard says:

    apparently, scott does want to be taken seriously, although anyone who claims that â€we†stopped anything rather than the brits is certainly doing his utmost to prove that he isn’t serious at all, just a propaganda robot.

  23. Sara says:

    As to the Brits — apparently they have two murder charges from Birmingham against Raif stemming from a few years back. He left GB for Pakistan as the murder investigations began to close in on him. Assuming for political reasons Pakistan does not want to prosecute on a lesser charge, I suspect the British will request and get quite legal extradition. The murder cases will in no way be impacted by the liquid bomb plots. What Bush might object to strongly is that British rules would make him unavaiable for intelligence exploitation until post trial. But I suspect two murders trump this conspiracy.

    The British and Americans have divergent interests here that need to be fully recognized. The British need to identify all the networks among their Pakistani and other immigrant populations open to planning and executing terrorist acts, 7-7 and the subsequent derailed plot absolutely demand this as top priority. In particular, they need to know how these connect with networks in Pakistan that train, finance, and religiously encourage Pakistani-Brits. While interesting, this would not be a particularly high priority for US intelligence, unless, as in this case, US lives and property were targeted. But even the specific US interests do not change the divergence of interests between the Brits and the US — they want to track a huge network — we want to preempt a specific plot.

    I rather dismiss the tickets and passport issue. Al-Qaeda has a pattern of using false identities and paper, and without knowing such had been thoroughly investigated, it is something of an undependable argument. If you imagine for a moment that this thing had been executed, you would have waves of planes that simply disappeared into the ocean with no evidence of how it was done, and no true identities that would allow easy investigation. And depending on where over the Atlantic it was executed, you might not even have a fix on location. I mention this because one of Rumsfeld’s cost savings plans of last year was to close down the military radar station on Iceland as a cold war vintage waste of money, even though the station also tracked N. Atlantic commercial flights. Ironic, isn’t that odd little fact. Rummy’s decision did not make the US press, but it was well covered in Denmark — a complex story, because the Iceland facility was acquired as a 100 year lease between the Danish Embassy in DC and the War Department in 1941 — Remember, DK was then occupied by the Germans. In 1946, as part of Iceland receiving its independence from Denmark, the 1941 agreement was part of the deal. Thus Rummy’s decision actually scotched a treaty between DK and the US. Iceland, Denmark and the Airlines were actually quite pissed.

  24. prostratedragon says:

    Thanks, Sara. The Iceland station thing, er, slipped under my radar.

    So the northeast is down to what, a reserve fighter wing in Pennsylvania or something?

  25. jonnybutter says:

    It’s the end of an era, Kaygro X. There are more and more people like your father in law who have just friggin had it (I would note here, for those who don’t know, that your series of Impeachment posts contain impeccable, clear-eyed, what-can-only-be-called conservative reasoning. If our two stalwarts are still around, they might want to take a look at those). I’m in post-mort mode – convinced that the Reagan Era is staggering to a close. I suspect I’m not alone in beginning to get beyond expressing that much local outrage anymore and more interested instead in the differences between what apologists actually believe and what they feel they must say ’for the team’. That’s why I asked. It is really fascinating. Honest to god, with malice toward none (except the pols).

    FWIW Dept.: I don’t comment here very much anymore, but I certainly still come read everyday. This is such a brilliant blog. I’m going to invoke the ’End of Irony’ here (the true meaning of 9/11, remember? – HA!!) and just thank all the contributers at TNH for all the fucking great work day after day.

    (Since every single thing you can imagine has to have a literal monetary value now, I would expect that some virtual ’TNH dollarz’ will be deposited into my virtual account for this. Incentives, don’cha know; modern saving stamps: rewards. Thanks in advance. ’TNH gives me rewards….I like that.’)

  26. ahem says:

    I rather dismiss the tickets and passport issue. Al-Qaeda has a pattern of using false identities and paper, and without knowing such had been thoroughly investigated, it is something of an undependable argument.

    All the 9/11 hijackers got visas and entered the US under their own names. And even if that weren’t the case. I’d be very wary of treating ’Al Qaeda’ as a coherent entity akin to the IRA with a consistent M.O.

  27. Sara says:

    â€All the 9/11 hijackers got visas and entered the US under their own names. And even if that weren’t the case. I’d be very wary of treating ’Al Qaeda’ as a coherent entity akin to the IRA with a consistent M.O.â€

    That may be so, but there are many other examples of use of false identities and papers. Kahlid Sheikh Mohammed apparently had over thirty identities, and Ramzi Yousef apparently is Abdul Basit.

    When true Identities are used, and when not probably has much to do with specific operations and strategy — I suspect 911 was much about driving a wedge between the Saudi’s and the US — and selecting pilots from US friendly state — the UAE, Egypt and Lebanon. Bin Laden was frustrated his declaration of war was not being taken seriously. I’ve just finished much reading up on Lashkar-e-Taiba, the presumed Pakistani end of â€Liquid Bombsâ€, and it appears State and CIA paid little attention to LeT, assuming it only operated in Pakistan, Kashmir, India and Indonesia — not the USA. Appears they now have to return to square one, and apply resources to LeT. Caught Shortsighted again.

  28. rostratedragon says:

    (OT—Must be my browser or something. For some reason I thought I had about 16 copies of my last post up.)

  29. Anonymous says:

    â€It was the British who deserve primary credit for making this bust (Bush, as I pointed out, has only ever netted â€aspirational†terrorists).

    Yet we deign to tell the Brits how to do their job, when they have proven much more successful at this kind of thing (not least because of their experience in Northern Ireland)?â€

    You fail to see that through programs that the Democrats have attacked we contributed immensely to the investigation.

    I can’t believe you use Northern Ireland as an analogy. That was mainly seen as a failure for the Brits.

    The Brits failed to stop the train bombings last year. While they have a great intel branch in MI5, they still need our assistance because we are the best at this type of intel gathering (at least until our intel gathering procedures are revealed by the NY Times).

  30. jonnybutter says:

    The Brits failed to stop the train bombings last year. While they have a great intel branch in MI5, they still need our assistance because we are the best at this type of intel gathering (at least until our intel gathering procedures are revealed by the NY Times).

    The Americans failed to stop 9/11. Does that mean American authorities can’t be trusted? You are ducking the issue raised in this post. You all want to imply, without quite saying it, that the brits would’ve blown the investigation or allowed a major terrorist attack to happen. If you think that, say it. Tell us: why was it vital to arrest suspects early? If you have a reason, tell us.

  31. Anonymous says:

    Perhaps the Cheney administration needed a WELL TIMED event to change the narrative and keep the proles in line. Cable news has been telling us all weekend that we MAY have all died, at least that’s the theme from the American versions of Pravda. Faux spews has been foaming at the mouth like rabid dogs.
    No passports? Ummmm the undeniable liberal doesn’t think that any of these native British islamofacist radicals were going to be travelling internationally soon.
    The fact remains, the alleged attack wasn’t imminent, OUR government pressured the British(for political reasons) and now the Fox â€news†watching sheeple are convinced that without Bush and his rubber stamp congress WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE……unless we give them free reign to shred the constitution. The real message is….vote Democratic, and DIE!!!!!!! And our â€free press†falls in line again. Welcome to the Rovian/Cheney vision of Amerika.

  32. Anonymous says:

    Perhaps the Cheney administration needed a WELL TIMED event to change the narrative and keep the proles in line. Cable news has been telling us all weekend that we MAY have all died, at least that’s the theme from the American versions of Pravda. Faux spews has been foaming at the mouth like rabid dogs.
    No passports? Ummmm the undeniable liberal doesn’t think that any of these native British islamofacist radicals were going to be travelling internationally soon.
    The fact remains, the alleged attack wasn’t imminent, OUR government pressured the British(for political reasons) and now the Fox â€news†watching sheeple are convinced that without Bush and his rubber stamp congress WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE……unless we give them free reign to shred the constitution. The real message is….vote Democratic, and DIE!!!!!!! And our â€free press†falls in line again. Welcome to the Rovian/Cheney vision of Amerika.

  33. Anonymous says:

    Perhaps the Cheney administration needed a WELL TIMED event to change the narrative and keep the proles in line. Cable news has been telling us all weekend that we MAY have all died, at least that’s the theme from the American versions of Pravda. Faux spews has been foaming at the mouth like rabid dogs.
    No passports? Ummmm the undeniable liberal doesn’t think that any of these native British islamofacist radicals were going to be travelling internationally soon.
    The fact remains, the alleged attack wasn’t imminent, OUR government pressured the British(for political reasons) and now the Fox â€news†watching sheeple are convinced that without Bush and his rubber stamp congress WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE……unless we give them free reign to shred the constitution. The real message is….vote Democratic, and DIE!!!!!!! And our â€free press†falls in line again. Welcome to the Rovian/Cheney vision of Amerika.

  34. Anonymous says:

    Perhaps the Cheney administration needed a WELL TIMED event to change the narrative and keep the proles in line. Cable news has been telling us all weekend that we MAY have all died, at least that’s the theme from the American versions of Pravda. Faux spews has been foaming at the mouth like rabid dogs.
    No passports? Ummmm the undeniable liberal doesn’t think that any of these native British islamofacist radicals were going to be travelling internationally soon.
    The fact remains, the alleged attack wasn’t imminent, OUR government pressured the British(for political reasons) and now the Fox â€news†watching sheeple are convinced that without Bush and his rubber stamp congress WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE……unless we give them free reign to shred the constitution. The real message is….vote Democratic, and DIE!!!!!!! And our â€free press†falls in line again. Welcome to the Rovian/Cheney vision of Amerika.

  35. Anonymous says:

    Perhaps the Cheney administration needed a WELL TIMED event to change the narrative and keep the proles in line. Cable news has been telling us all weekend that we MAY have all died, at least that’s the theme from the American versions of Pravda. Faux spews has been foaming at the mouth like rabid dogs.
    No passports? Ummmm the undeniable liberal doesn’t think that any of these native British islamofacist radicals were going to be travelling internationally soon.
    The fact remains, the alleged attack wasn’t imminent, OUR government pressured the British(for political reasons) and now the Fox â€news†watching sheeple are convinced that without Bush and his rubber stamp congress WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE……unless we give them free reign to shred the constitution. The real message is….vote Democratic, and DIE!!!!!!! And our â€free press†falls in line again. Welcome to the Rovian/Cheney vision of Amerika.

  36. howard says:

    one can’t tell if â€sc†is â€scott†or another fantasist. what right-thinking people oppose is violating the law in intelligence-gathering. the brits didn’t violate british laws in this effort. what exactly is it that â€sc†thinks we provided?

  37. Anonymous says:

    No. SC is not me.

    As for the Clinton â€wag the dog†scenario, when he ignored Iraq for months then the day the impeachment hearing began, he began bombing them only to end it the day the impeachment hearings did was hard to explain away.

    What do you mean he almost had bin-Laden? You mean when the Sudan offered him to us and Clinton said he didn’t want him. Is that what you’re referring to?