Well, I offered a scenario for how Ari could be Mr. X last week. Now I’m getting to the hard part–exploring how Armitage could be Mr. X, the source of Plame’s identity for both Woodward and Novak.

But before I do that, let me clarify what I’m doing and why I’m doing it (and why I did the Ari scenario). I’m putting together what I consider a plausible scenario. I don’t mean to claim this (or the Ari scenario) is true. Rather, it’s a scenario in a futuring sense, an attempt to tell a possible story, to weigh how plausible it is and to explore what it might mean. Frankly, I’m writing this Armitage post from an awkward position. After eyeballing the Fitzgerald filing from the other day, I’m convinced that Armitage fits in the redactions better than any other name (here’s a more recent attempt at the eyeballing we did 10 days ago for those who want to see the scans side-by-side). At the same time, I’ve been a confirmed Armitage skeptic, believing that Dick or Hadley or any number of other people are much more likely and that Armitage is very unlikely. And I don’t believe anyone–certainly not the chief purveyors of the Armitage theory–have provided a plausible scenario for his leaks at all. So I should say I’m definitely not convinced of what follows; I’m just trying to understand how Armitage could be plausible.