I’m particularly fascinated by the role of Snowe in this. I’ve suspected the rise of the moderates may also turn into a revolt of the Committee leadership against Bush’s dictating what they do with their committees. Snowe is herself a committee chair, and here she’s being depicted as the decisive vote into whether the Gang of 14 can rule the show or whether the Finance Committee (and, by extension, committees in general) retains its traditional role.

But then, I can’t imagine Fristie’s theatened attempt to use parliamentary maneuvers to bypass Finance is going to be popular, given recent events.

Everyone knows there is a pretty obvious deal to be made on Social Security once private accounts are firmly off the table–raising the wage cap in stages and very slowly raising the age at which full benefits can be claimed, which will have the effect of slowly lowering the percentage of benefits that beneficiaries get if they retire early. It is not necessary to cut benefits except by slowly increasing the age of full benefits, unless one is adamantly against any tax increases. This assumes, of course, that private accounts would ever be taken off the table.

But the folks who are going to face the FICA tax increase are the same folks who will be hit by the AMT in 2006 unless something is done. And that gets us back to the issue of Bush’s tax cuts and the damage to be done by making them permanent, especially the top rate and the estate tax repeal.

So all of a sudden it isn’t simple anymore. This is the problem for people like Lindsay Graham. When he tries to sweeten the pot for one group, like adding significant add-on tax free accounts, especially with subsidies for those at the bottom of the scale, it exacerbates all the tax issues. Bill Thomas understands all the issues, but it is hard to see a compromise he could pull off either.

And, of course, there really is no need to â€fix†Social Security. The real need is to fix Medicare and health care generally, and get a grip on the revenue side. If the economic assumptions indicate there is still a problem in 3-4 years, there is plenty of time to deal with it. This is one time that inertia works in our favor.

emptywheel — Seniors like that will never get on stage with the President, will they?

Mimikatz — Good read. Graham may think he’s going to pull a rabbit (or a camel, or a platypus, or something) out of the hat. May be nothing in that hat but spiders and snakes.

Continuing vigilance is needed, of course, but Social Security deform seems like a nonstarter at this point.

Lindsey Graham was talking out of his ass (and probably knew it). Moderate Republicans – let alone Dems – are not going to sign up to a deal that keeps carve-out private accounts, and hardcore conservatives are not going to accept one that *doesn’t* have them. And whatever happens with judicial nominations, it is hardly going to be conducive to a â€compromise†surrender on Social Security.

Needless to say, if it doesn’t happen this year, it is certainly not going to happen next year, with an election looming. Even conservative GOPers have shown themselves none too eager to join hands and leap into the abyss without Dems to provide human shields. (Yeah, I’m mixing metaphors – sosumi.)

– Rick Robinso

http://www.proteenplan.com/www…../1453.html brakegnewly

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